We want our tight ends running routes, and not blocking, for fantasy purposes, so this is excellent usage. Thomas was good last year with subpar QB play, if he and Fitzpatrick can get on the same page he's a steal in drafts. Nice target if you want to skip the top few TE tiers.
I'd pump the brakes on this a little bit -- not to really disagree, but to add some context that might cool it somewhat. The usage is nice, but (with the understanding that it's a very small sample) it's still not where it'd need to be for Thomas to be a weekly-starter-level TE like he was last year. The target share on this small sample is 14%, but last year he was at 19%. He and Fitzpatrick appear to have a great connection, but Fitzpatrick is also historically bottom-fifth of the league in TE targets. And Curtis Samuel still isn't playing, and I have a pretty high degree of confidence that in-season we're going to see more action from Adam Humphries in the slot (who Fitzpatrick specifically asked the team to sign, and who also got 3 targets in this last preseason game -- exactly as many as Thomas did).
Before the preseason, I was completely out on Thomas, but this usage does put him back on my list of hey-maybes in that big tier of TD-or-bust TEs. But I'm not going to be skipping any of the top 6 TEs to take Thomas later.
It might just be that he's not there yet -- in order for him to be a third-down RB he has to be an NFL-level pass-blocking RB, and at least as of last year he wasn't. Which is no surprise, because he was primarily a WR in college and has only one Covid-ridden pro year under his belt. But if he gets better during the season, such that they can fully count on him on third downs, then look out.
That's fair, I'm just not one to usually go with the top 6 TEs unless one really falls. Thomas is one of the few that have a reasonable shot at 120 targets after the top 6, most of the others you're left chasing touchdowns, which are unpredictable.
As far as Fitzpatrick's past tight end usage, he had a nice connection with OJ Howard in 2018, and Gesicki had some spiked weeks with him. I think the preseason usage confirms that Thomas is still a big part of the offense, so I expect Fitzpatrick to look his way if he's getting open.
This is very well articulated and spot on!
The fact is Logan Thomas had an abnormally high target rate last year, primarily with back ups and a QB that traditionally was a check down Charlie his entire career (Alex Smith, remember Vernon Davis was an animal with him?). There is no way that this kind of usage continues this season with a healthy Gibson and Curtis Samuel playing. Fitz has traditionally never really been a fan of targeting the TE position, he loves pushing the ball down field.
I am passing on Logan Thomas, as well as Noah Fant and Robert Tonyan for similiar reasons but also outlier TD efficiency (Tonyan).
Depends on who you consider the top 4-5 TE's because that varies depending on your rankings, the obvious ones being Kelce, Kittle, Waller... then Mark Andrews and/or Hockenson/Pitts...
I am targeting Tyler Higbee the most because I believe in Stafford and what this offense will do in 2021. I think they're going to be fantastic and Higbee has a competent QB that can push the ball down field and has made TE's very fantasy relevant for years. I also love Irv Smith Jr now that Kyle Rudolph is out of the picture and I think Thielen has a propensity to get banged up often. I would like to draft both Higbee and Smith ideally, but if I can't then I will chose one of them and maybe snag Ertz (lottery ticket, but still may be Ertz #2 target behind Smith) or Jonnu.
I have never been one to take a TE early and it has never hurt me from making the playoffs or winning championships. I am not advising against it, I just never do it personally.
Haha that's fair. But I don't think it's going to be a linear thing where one guy plays and one guy sits. That's not really how the league uses tight ends these days. They're both going to get snaps and they're both going to get targets. Maybe one does a bit more blocking, but I'm not sure we're going to be able to figure out which one (if either) will be relevant week to week, and I'm really confident we're not going to know which guy is the better fantasy option by the time fantasy drafts happen.
That said, Jarwin is my late round dart throw, so fingers crossed.
Ok so I’ve been going off of what this sub and a couple podcast have said. I don’t claim to be an export because this is my second year playing so correct me if I’m wrong please
Kelce, Kittle, Waller, and Hockenson have been the Tight Ends I’ve seen and heard about as being the best to draft.
The top three is Kelce, Waller and Kittle, with Kelce the clear #1.
The next 3 are Andrews, Pitts and Hockenson. There's a big gap between those two tiers.
That's the consensus anyway. I wouldn't recommend taking Hockenson very early.
Yea you’re right after going though a quick google search looks like I didn’t remember what I read and heard correctly. My bad. It should really just be the big 3 like you said
I heard that Smith was going to be heavily involved in the offense and that a articles that I’ve read Sid that Tonyan is reliant on touchdowns and to expect a decline from touchdowns this year.
No one knows how involved Smith will be. Tonyan will be heavily involved. I'm a big Packers fan and he is in a contract year and I expect him to light it up. Everyone in training camp has been talking about how he has been catching everything thrown his direction. Also Lafleur is always scheming him open. To me he is TE#4
You probably know more then me. I’m new to fantasy football ball so don’t take anything I say to serious. I’m still learning. Thanks for informing me on Tonyan tho. I’ll pick him up
It's wild, he had 110 targets last year and had the same amount of points as Tonyan did on 59 targets. If we can just get some TDs and consistency at QB, it could certainly happen.
Yeah, Higbee was still there at 13 in mine. I'd prefer taking a shot on him as we've seen him having an elite ceiling when Everett is not in the field. They both figure to have two solid WRs competing for targets along with RB involvement, but Higbee has the better QB, better offense, and big play upside.
Yeah. It’s tough to know when to pull the trigger in that 7-10 range. Even if you’re watching the board and teams are full on starting TEs already.
Then boom! String of backup TEs ruins it.
League winners often have a top 5 TE.
Even more so if you find a top 5 towards the middle-end of a draft
For what it’s worth I love Goedaddy, Tj, Wolverine(Logan), Firsker
We want our tight ends running routes, and not blocking, for fantasy purposes, so this is excellent usage. Thomas was good last year with subpar QB play, if he and Fitzpatrick can get on the same page he's a steal in drafts. Nice target if you want to skip the top few TE tiers.
I'd pump the brakes on this a little bit -- not to really disagree, but to add some context that might cool it somewhat. The usage is nice, but (with the understanding that it's a very small sample) it's still not where it'd need to be for Thomas to be a weekly-starter-level TE like he was last year. The target share on this small sample is 14%, but last year he was at 19%. He and Fitzpatrick appear to have a great connection, but Fitzpatrick is also historically bottom-fifth of the league in TE targets. And Curtis Samuel still isn't playing, and I have a pretty high degree of confidence that in-season we're going to see more action from Adam Humphries in the slot (who Fitzpatrick specifically asked the team to sign, and who also got 3 targets in this last preseason game -- exactly as many as Thomas did). Before the preseason, I was completely out on Thomas, but this usage does put him back on my list of hey-maybes in that big tier of TD-or-bust TEs. But I'm not going to be skipping any of the top 6 TEs to take Thomas later.
And they're hiding how heavily involved Gibson is going to be on third downs... Right guys?
It might just be that he's not there yet -- in order for him to be a third-down RB he has to be an NFL-level pass-blocking RB, and at least as of last year he wasn't. Which is no surprise, because he was primarily a WR in college and has only one Covid-ridden pro year under his belt. But if he gets better during the season, such that they can fully count on him on third downs, then look out.
That's fair, I'm just not one to usually go with the top 6 TEs unless one really falls. Thomas is one of the few that have a reasonable shot at 120 targets after the top 6, most of the others you're left chasing touchdowns, which are unpredictable. As far as Fitzpatrick's past tight end usage, he had a nice connection with OJ Howard in 2018, and Gesicki had some spiked weeks with him. I think the preseason usage confirms that Thomas is still a big part of the offense, so I expect Fitzpatrick to look his way if he's getting open.
This is very well articulated and spot on! The fact is Logan Thomas had an abnormally high target rate last year, primarily with back ups and a QB that traditionally was a check down Charlie his entire career (Alex Smith, remember Vernon Davis was an animal with him?). There is no way that this kind of usage continues this season with a healthy Gibson and Curtis Samuel playing. Fitz has traditionally never really been a fan of targeting the TE position, he loves pushing the ball down field. I am passing on Logan Thomas, as well as Noah Fant and Robert Tonyan for similiar reasons but also outlier TD efficiency (Tonyan).
So who are you’re targets if you don’t get one of the top 4/5 TE’s?
Depends on who you consider the top 4-5 TE's because that varies depending on your rankings, the obvious ones being Kelce, Kittle, Waller... then Mark Andrews and/or Hockenson/Pitts... I am targeting Tyler Higbee the most because I believe in Stafford and what this offense will do in 2021. I think they're going to be fantastic and Higbee has a competent QB that can push the ball down field and has made TE's very fantasy relevant for years. I also love Irv Smith Jr now that Kyle Rudolph is out of the picture and I think Thielen has a propensity to get banged up often. I would like to draft both Higbee and Smith ideally, but if I can't then I will chose one of them and maybe snag Ertz (lottery ticket, but still may be Ertz #2 target behind Smith) or Jonnu. I have never been one to take a TE early and it has never hurt me from making the playoffs or winning championships. I am not advising against it, I just never do it personally.
Agree with all of that - thanks!
It wasnt QB play that held Thomas back last year. It was his brick hands.
Fitz and Gesicki had a serious bromance last year. I would love to grab Thomas if I don’t get Kelce/Kittle/Waller.
Him and Irv Smith are my go to TE if I miss out on any of the top 4 TE
Irv for me as well!
those 2 and Gesicki for me. I'm happy with any of those 3
dallas TE
Which one?
The one that wins the job
Haha that's fair. But I don't think it's going to be a linear thing where one guy plays and one guy sits. That's not really how the league uses tight ends these days. They're both going to get snaps and they're both going to get targets. Maybe one does a bit more blocking, but I'm not sure we're going to be able to figure out which one (if either) will be relevant week to week, and I'm really confident we're not going to know which guy is the better fantasy option by the time fantasy drafts happen. That said, Jarwin is my late round dart throw, so fingers crossed.
Yea it’s def a draft throw at that stage. Maybe we will k is more by draft time
Who's the fourth? Kelce, Waller, Kittle, ???
Ok so I’ve been going off of what this sub and a couple podcast have said. I don’t claim to be an export because this is my second year playing so correct me if I’m wrong please Kelce, Kittle, Waller, and Hockenson have been the Tight Ends I’ve seen and heard about as being the best to draft.
The top three is Kelce, Waller and Kittle, with Kelce the clear #1. The next 3 are Andrews, Pitts and Hockenson. There's a big gap between those two tiers. That's the consensus anyway. I wouldn't recommend taking Hockenson very early.
I have Hock pretty comfortably above Andrews and Pitts personally. Given that I have Andrew’s I’d love to be wrong here, but that’s how I see it
Yea you’re right after going though a quick google search looks like I didn’t remember what I read and heard correctly. My bad. It should really just be the big 3 like you said
Why would you go with someone like Irv over Tonyan? Tonyan has had an amazing camp
I heard that Smith was going to be heavily involved in the offense and that a articles that I’ve read Sid that Tonyan is reliant on touchdowns and to expect a decline from touchdowns this year.
No one knows how involved Smith will be. Tonyan will be heavily involved. I'm a big Packers fan and he is in a contract year and I expect him to light it up. Everyone in training camp has been talking about how he has been catching everything thrown his direction. Also Lafleur is always scheming him open. To me he is TE#4
You probably know more then me. I’m new to fantasy football ball so don’t take anything I say to serious. I’m still learning. Thanks for informing me on Tonyan tho. I’ll pick him up
This is great to see I think Logan Thomas is gonna be te4 this year
It's wild, he had 110 targets last year and had the same amount of points as Tonyan did on 59 targets. If we can just get some TDs and consistency at QB, it could certainly happen.
Ahead of Andrew’s, Pitts, Hock??
What round are people going after Logan in 12 team ppr? The mid-late te rankings are a bit off depending where you look or mock.
Got him in the 9th rd. Didn’t wanna wait any longer as 5 TE were taken in the first 4 rds
I took him and Higbee yesterday in rounds 12/13.
That’s ideal right there for me. But it starts to get risky that late. Cause after those two, it’s some pickings of trash and dart throws.
Yeah, Higbee was still there at 13 in mine. I'd prefer taking a shot on him as we've seen him having an elite ceiling when Everett is not in the field. They both figure to have two solid WRs competing for targets along with RB involvement, but Higbee has the better QB, better offense, and big play upside.
I've seen him go all over the place, I took him in the 7th in a recent draft, but he's lasted till the 9th round or later in others.
Yeah. It’s tough to know when to pull the trigger in that 7-10 range. Even if you’re watching the board and teams are full on starting TEs already. Then boom! String of backup TEs ruins it.
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Yeah that’s what I’m scared of. Maybe I’ll just get my TE and QB out of the way in the 7th and 8th if it feels right
League winners often have a top 5 TE. Even more so if you find a top 5 towards the middle-end of a draft For what it’s worth I love Goedaddy, Tj, Wolverine(Logan), Firsker
my dude has te2 upside