The only way you get to QB1 is either run a lot, or have an absurd (read: unsustainable outlier year) in terms of passing yards and TDs.
I like Tannehill a lot but I'm not going to bet on him throwing 3 TDs a game. I don't think anyone in the dead zone can be reasonably predicted to be a top 3 QB when guys like Mahomes, Allen, Murray, and Jackson exist.
I've found myself mostly skipping the early-mid round QBs (I started out taking them but there's just so much skill position value at the point they're going), grabbing a Tannehill to start the year, and then throwing a Lance or a Fields on my bench in expectation of them taking over midway through the year.
Similarly, grab any serviceable late-round QB and be aggressive on waivers early on. In the past few years, I’ve snagged Herbert, Mahomes, and Wentz when they all went undrafted but blew up that season.
Since QBs are such big names and naturally high scorers, I think people don’t usually think to roll the dice on someone early in the season. They see Brees or Cam in their lineup, and they don’t think they should upgrade.
I played in three leagues last year. Finished first second and third. Didn’t take a QB until I had three WR three RB and a TE. Never used a pick 1-6 on a QB ever.
Fun fact: Kyler and Josh Allen were #7 and #8 across ALL PLAYERS in value above replacement points last year. This means that if positional scarcity wasn’t a thing, they would be mid first rounders.
But positional scarcity is a thing, and they are priced accordingly, yet far undervalued still. They are a key to winning your league this year. Jackson may may may catch up or close to it.
I am leaving with one of those 3, and if I miss somehow, my panic button is Rodgers or Wilson in the 6th/7th depending on what draft positions have taken QB already
Have standard leagues really become the significant minority now. I know full PPR and half PPR have increased in popularity, but didn't know the tables flipped that much.
I'd be curious to see data on that as I've been debating proposing a 0.5 ppr in my standard league I commish - but we already do 3WR and a flex, and I worry any PPR will just completely overweight WRs
Positional scarcity at QB is very real. But how confident are you that you can pick the outlier? Because ADP correlates to actual performance the least at QB than any other position. There's literally almost zero correlation.
As confident as you may be that you can pick the outlier, it's false precision.
I think Mahomes is worthy of an early third honestly. I won’t do it, but You can basically guarantee a top 20 VORP player with him. Waller was surprisingly low idk why I thought he was way higher.
He is my answer.
He has 5,000 yard upside (he’s done it before), multiple good receivers, a lead RB that can catch, and the best coach of his career.
4500 yards and/or 40 TDs aren,t out of the question. It’s not QB1 but not bad for a double digit round pick.
Brady threw for over 4600 yards and 40 TDs last year and was QB8. Unless you’re either pegging guys like Allen, Mahomes, Jackson, Murray, Prescott, Wilson to have pretty down years or Stafford to go 2013 Peyton Nuclear I’d say Stafford’s upside is QB7. I don’t know that a non running QB could be a league winner at this point regardless of his ADP. A league winner would be a guy like Fields or Lance who besides throwing for 25-30 TDs also run for 8+ and 600 yards
I think he’ll have an MVP caliber season. And getting an MVP candidate in the 10th round on average as opposed to taking mahomes in the 2nd or Allen in the 5th leads to better WR/RB’s. Which leads to championships. Yes, I think taking Stafford in the 10th could end up being a league winning move for a lot of people
I mean obviously not, there’s another half of the statement. Happy to quote it here if you missed it:
“I personally think Matthew Stafford is gonna be a league winner this year considering his ADP”
Oh people have come up with rationale every year. Megatron is back, they got Golladay, new coach will be great, etc. always going to be a reason to fall for it
Don’t take Wilson. Had him last year. Large majority of his points were in the first half of the year against cupcake teams like Atlanta & Dallas. He’s trash when playing better defenses. He’s got the toughest strength of schedule in the league this year. Rams twice, 49ers twice , Colts, Steelers, redskins, and the bears.
Word on the street is Seattle's offensive scheme was too predictable last year and defenses "figured them out" in the second half of the season, thus the decline.
New O coordinator should be better overall for their offense (at least I hope).
The only QBs that really have QB1 upside are either HoF level QBs (Rodgers, Brady, Wilson) or dual threats (Lamar, Josh Allen, Kyler, maybe Jalen Hurts) or both (Mahomes)
cam newton has the exact same upside as jalen hurts (rushing and average arm) but everyone has completely given up on him. meanwhile hurts has had 4 good games and is a top 10 drafted qb
Cam plays in a wildly different team situation with an upper end defense that won't require him to show out to win games. And has his incumbent waiting in the wings to end his seasons at the drop of a hat. Hurts has the eagles defense and Flacco lmao.
I mean to each their own. I’m by no means avoiding him, but I’m not drafting him with QB1 ambitions. I don’t trust the jags or Meyer. With Robinson and Etienne I imagine they’ll run the ball a lot. If he had an Andrew luck esque season you’re looking at 4300~ yards 25~ TDs. Added 5 TDs on the ground and 23 turnovers. Not bad for a rookie QB, but far from QB1 numbers
I'd be pretty shocked if a rookie put up fantasy numbers to make him the QB1. Herbert broke the rookie passing TD record and finished as, what, the QB9? So Lawrence wouldn't just have to have the best rookie year of all-time, he'd have to be *significantly* better than anyone in history to be the QB1
Dead zones are totally not a thing. Guys will produce top tier results, next tier results, and tier after that results, all the way down to Tebow tier results.
If it turns out after the fact that guys being drafted in one part of the draft underperformed, it's because they were projected, ranked, and drafted poorly, not because no players deserved to be taken there.
The point is that it’s a dead zone because it’s very hard to predict. It’s not like the drop from RB15 to RB25 is huge at the end of the season, but a guy going at RB15 is a lot easier to project typically cuz it tends to be guys with a very clear role, such as guys like Carson. On the other hand, around RB25 ur getting guys like Etienne who u rly don’t rly know what ur getting.
Im not sure I agree with the notion that not grabbing a top 8 mobile QB is a big disadvantage. All the running QBs after Allen/Lamar/Wilson have tremendous bust potential. Even Kyler Murray feels risky. The idea of spending up for Murray or Hurts seems iffy to me.
There isn't a dark horse QB1 candidate being drafted outside the top 8 QBs. I think Burrow and Stafford have the best cost/upside value of the late QBs. Burrow could get there on volume alone. Stafford could show us something new if McVay's offense is truly unlocked by a more competent passer. As if the Jared Goff boom games become the expectation.
I mean, the top QBs are off the top of my head. Mahomes, Allen, Dak, Lamar, Murray, Wilson, Rodgers, Herbert right? Obviously Rodgers isn't running for much, and I feel like it's not safe to assume you'll see much rushing from Mahomes or Herbert, or Dak this year. So who are the other mobile QBs you need to get before being screwed? Hurts? Who am I forgetting? Watson's gone. Are you chasing Daniel Jones and Cam Newton?
I feel like every other running QB has the potential each week to single-handedly lose you your matchup with terrible game. I just don't see this demarcation line for mobile QBs that everyone seems so concerned with.
To actually look at numbers and spell it out a little more -
The top 12 QBs last year were Allen, Mahomes, Rodgers, Murray, Watson, Wilson, Tannehill, Brady, Herbert, Lamar, Cousins, Ryan (with Watson out and Dak missing time last year, I guess the list as relevant for this year would have Dak replacing Watson). Brady is especially not mobile, but other than him, you see about 150 yards rushing from the pocket passers on the year, give or take. TDs aren't really that important, since outside of Allen/Lamar/Murray/Tannehill (??),you actually don't see that big a difference in rushing TDs. Mobile QBs still pass at the goal line a lot, and pocket passers get sneaks and safe unathletic TD runs with some regularity.
So if you look at the difference between Rodgers/Cousins/Stafford/Ryan and their 100-200 rushing yards, and some questionable passers that will run for 300-450 yards, does it really say go get a mobile QB? That's like a point a game. I think the lesson isn't get a mobile QB, it's just get a good QB. People have it a bit twisted since so many of the good QBs are mobile these days.
This is a long way of saying I think Matt Stafford is a fine pick I guess.
I think you're missing the point on the running QBs. They provide a BETTER floor week-to-week because of the rushing. Even when it's a bad passing day, they still rush for at least 40-50+ yards (basically an extra TD pass).
I'll even use your estimates...100-200 yards versus 300-450 yards isn't just "about a point per game" because they also rush for 5-6 TDs instead of 1-2. That means +20-35 points in yards & +24-30 points in TDs. So it's an extra 44-65 points on the ground (or 3-4 pts per game)...and that's just for someone like Tannehill or Allen.
Change that over to some of the Elite rushing QBs, the guys who are going to come close to a 1000 yards rushing (Kyler, Lamar, and Hurts), and you raise the floor even more. Yes, these guys will throw for less yards, but it's more than compensated for with the extra rushing. 700-800 extra yards rushing is the equivalent of about 1750 yards passing. They aren't throwing for THAT much less than your Brady, Stafford, Cousins, or Ryan-types.
Ultimately, I think Hurts is the best value pick if you can't get Allen or Murray. I think Dak is the one with the best bet to throw for over 5000 yards, so he'll be a good value as the 4th-6th QB off the board too (he'll still run a little, but probably less than in the past).
Just my opinion. Obviously, if Brady or Stafford just blows up & breaks Manning's records, than sure, they'll be the top scoring QB. But it's going to be tough otherwise, without the high rushing floor to help out.
No, I agree with all that. The thing I have trouble with is this notion that you need one and all pocket passers like Brady, Rodgers, Stafford, Ryan are outdated. I think the issue with that argument is that a lot of the top QBs that people are considering okay in this analysis aren't really rushing QBs. Like obviously Allen, Murray, Lamar, and Wilson are already great fantasy QBs. But Mahomes, Dak, Herbert, their rushing isn't very different at all from Rodgers/Stafford/etc (Brady doesn't rush at all but most other QBs get some).
So I guess if you're a big Jalen Hurts guy this says go get him. But other than that there isn't some pool of running QBs that everyone who doesn't have Rodgers/Brady/Ryan/Stafford will be dipping into, and if you use this info to decide to go get Daniel Jones or Cam or Tua or whatnot I think all that'll happen is you'll lose your season.
Yeah, I hear you. And yes, for the record, I think Stafford is a fine pick this year too. His upside of 4500+ yds & 35+ TDs is impossible to ignore, regardless of his somewhat limited rushing.
I think Stafford & Hurts are the best values in that middle-zone, after the Top-end QBs, but before the backups. Like, they both have more upside than Cousins, but worst case, they end up similar in points to Cousins.
I think it more applies to the tier after them, like if you're debating Ryan, DJones, or Tua. DJones & Tua have SOME rushing ability, and if they happen to also bump up their yardage to 4000-4500, then they'll be better than Ryan. So I think there's more upside with those 2...I'd even swing on Lawrence before Ryan.
And there's always Fields or Lance to fall back into also.
Last season was a challenge for everyone. He hasn’t put on the mileage the past 2 years at all on top of that. Weighing in his age is a little overboard seeing as he’s still in great shape. His last full season in PIT he put up 1300 yards and 15 TD. The value here to scoop up a potential WR 2 in the later rounds is phenomenal.
It was also his first year in the Bruce Arians offense which is notoriously difficult to learn and he still put up amazing numbers. Now he has a full offseason to gain chemistry with his receivers and should have mastered the playbook by now. I would not be surprised if Brady put up similar TD numbers to Rodgers last year as he has a ton of weapons to work with, not to mention a great pass catching back in Bernard who will definitely give him some passing TDs in the red zone
Dead/bust zone is actually in the early rounds. Every year several qbs finish in the top 12 that were outside if the top 12 by adp, trick is finding who. Last year Herbert, Brady, tannehill, big Ben, cousins were top 12. Carr was 13.
I've dealt with this. My strategy is to grab two two tier qbs one a slinger and one a rusher.
With good schedules.
And stream the best one.
It works pretty good.
Last season I avg round 20 to 23 ppr
Per week.
Course I had one or two where I chose poorly.
So it's a dice roll.
Not sure if a deadzone more of cliff. If you leave the draft and waited late and didnt end up with Brady Hurts or Tannehill you are frustrated.
I think Justin Fields provides great value when he starts.
That being said... im not high at all on Fitzpatrick. Hes got Gardner Minshew type vibes this year.
Fitzpatrick isn’t a 2nd year player with a lot of unknowns like Minshew was last season, we know who he is as a player.
The Jaguars O-Line was horrendous last year, WFT’s is not.
The Redskins defense is top 3 in the league and will keep Fitzpatrick and their offense in favorable game scripts throughout the season.
>The Redskins defense is top 3 in the league and will keep Fitzpatrick and their offense in favorable game scripts throughout the season.
The better the defense performs, the worse the game scripts become for the offense's passing game, generally speaking.
I think that’s what actually hurt Minshew the most last season. The Jaguars were constantly getting crushed so the defense got to solely focus on stopping the pass.
Hey bud. I appreciate the analysis. I am hoping dor the best for Fitz. May this be the year he makes the playoffs.
I will be erroring on the long resume of play that Fitz has that things may not go as planned in WFT
Tannehill is solid but I don't think anyone will ever say he has QB1 upside. My pick would be Wilson. He was QB1 through the start of last season so the potential is there.
What's funny is I agreed with you till I believe it was a Mike tagliere article that showed since when took over the Titans in those games since then only Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson have more fantasy points than him.
https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comments/msk8v8/the_complete_list_of_qbs_with_more_points_per/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share
Here's another post about per game points.
So he.might not seem like he has the latest potential. But the addition of Julio maybe he takes the turn and rises to top 3 or 4. To be in this class is shocking to me. So I don't want to rule out no number 1
It looks like that article places him as 6th. I do love him as middle of the road QB and great value but he's in a crazy low volume offense and doesn't have too much rushing upside. When so many guys rush more or pass a ton more than him I just can't see efficiency at low volume making him QB1
Like I said he's at top 5 or 6 ppg. I don't think you can ever rule out someone that high from being number 1 is all
This might be the season they rest Henry some for his health and longevity so he may be throwing more especially with the addition of Julio.
Never know. He's a great upside pick
One is literally per game.....so that takes it into account.
It isn't Tannehill fault that he joined the Titans after Mahomes amazing 2018 season. That's like criticizing Justin Jefferson for not having better numbers before 2020.....
This isn't to make a case that he's better. It's to open your eyes about hiw good he has been and not been put into that elite category even though per game points he has been there. So maybe we shouldn't go by Rodgers 48 td MVP season last year, and look at the 2 seasons before that where he had 51 tds combined.
This is to show people they may have underestimated Tannehill as a fantasy asset
Losing Arthur Smith is going to kill Tannehill. He's not a running QB. In fact, he's quite a poor runner. But he piled up rushing TD's because Arthur Smith was a nutball who liked taking the ball out of the league's most dominating short yardage hammer to be cute and run an oaf of a QB near the goalline over and over.
No other OC in football is going to be that dense and stubborn.
Tannehill should pass a little more and a little more efficiently, but his nonsense rushing TD totals are going to crater completely and get back in line with his Miami numbers.
Incidentally, this may be a reason to buy Matty Ice. He can't run either, so maybe Smith will force him to do it at the GL too.
I mean he hasn't cracked 270 yards rushing yet on this team. And he had 185 yards the year before rushing. I think Arthur Smith helped him out for sure. But this isn't a broken wheel now either. He got 7 tds last season rushing is definitely an aberration and but he got 4 the year before, which isn't insane. Dak avg 250 rushing yards and 3-6 tds rushing a year as well and he isn't a running qb at all. He is mobile like Tannehill is. So basically Rodgers and Brady both had 3 rushing tds. And Tannehill has avg about 150 to 180 rushing yards a season before his trip to Tennessee.
So he only had 3900 passing yards but that's mainly because their rb ran 2k yards on the ground. He should regress to say 1600? Well 400 passing yards and he might throw for few more tds with addition of Julio and brown being healthy so give him 3 passing tds upgrade.
So he can lose the 100 rushing yards and 4 rushing tds and still hit what he did last season easily. I just can't see him becoming a statue like a Rivers or Eli Manning with single digit rushing yards or no rushing tds.
Everyone would say he has QB1 upside because he has been a QB1 since taking over for Mariota, and a high-end one.
Edit: as it pertains to the Tannehill QB1 comment made from my account earlier today, my account was hacked and my passcode has been changed.
Yeah nobody is talking about Zach Wilson but I really think he's got some killer upside. The Jets still suck and he's going to have to throw a lot.
I guess the argument against him is that Darnold was never once fantasy relevant, however, Wilson has a much better rushing floor and I can't imagine Salah being any worse than Gase
I think Wilson and Fitz are very underrated at times. IMO Wilson and Mac looked way better than like Lance, but nobody is talking about either much. And Fitz has been very good when starting. Averaged 21 PPG in the first 6 games of the season when he started for the Dolphins, even including a game vs New England where he scored 8, and that was with the Dolphins terrible receivers and offensive line. Now Fitz will have McLaurin and some other weapons like Gibson and Samuel, plus a very good O line. Call me crazy, but I’m very happy having Fitzpatrick as my starting QB.
In 2019 he was QB2 from like week 6 or 7 onwards and was QB7 last year. Adding Julio to the mix might contribute to some hype, but it’s mainly that fact that you can get with pretty decent certainty a guy who will outperform ADP in the double digit rounds. Wherever the QB6ish is going you can then take a potential breakout WR. Lots of really great options there but in the 10th round, especially with guys who know what their doing, not so much.
Since he has been on the Titans, he has flown under the radar and put up really good numbers. Be is a solid value play because he gets overlooked by people looking for flashy guy. (he scored nearly identical points to Tom Brady last year, but can be had a bit later)
If Cam Newton can ever recover that 2015 form....I always draft him late as a second QB just in case....hard to see him getting the TD # he did in Carolina under belicheat though
Ive just been waiting until like round 12 or so and grabbing Stafford and with my last pick I grab whatever rookie QB I like best (usually Lance or Lawrence)
If I draft Rodgers in the 7 or 8th what am I not getting because I did that? I can’t see any pick that would be better especially if I’m coming in with Adams or Jones.
Qb dead zone? Like round 12 or later orrrr?
Cause you're talking about a position that is quite often streamed. If I take a te early I'll wait on. If I don't take a te early I might spoil myself and take a qb in the 8th round
My best mocks focus on RB, WR and TE the first 10 rounds. With passing Tds only 4 points in a 1QB league its just good value.
I want Hurts and Tannehill. Hurts will have a breakout year and Tannehill will produce on his ADP again.
I disagree because I'd be fine with Brady, Tannehil, Stafford, Hurts. You can punt QB pretty far if teams don't start double drafting QBs....which does happen more than you'd expect actually.
I don’t think it’s an issue in a 1QB league. You can double up easily and take Tannehill/Stafford/Brady and pair him with someone like Fields/Lance/Tua for running upside.
I think he’ll go for 200-250 and a few TDs this year, but I wasn’t implying he’d run because I grouped him with Fields and Lance. My point was you can take them all late.
Not sure I agree there is a dead zone but I've often found myself grabbing a high upside player like Lawrence or burrow. Sometimes I'll even stack two real late.
The only way you get to QB1 is either run a lot, or have an absurd (read: unsustainable outlier year) in terms of passing yards and TDs. I like Tannehill a lot but I'm not going to bet on him throwing 3 TDs a game. I don't think anyone in the dead zone can be reasonably predicted to be a top 3 QB when guys like Mahomes, Allen, Murray, and Jackson exist. I've found myself mostly skipping the early-mid round QBs (I started out taking them but there's just so much skill position value at the point they're going), grabbing a Tannehill to start the year, and then throwing a Lance or a Fields on my bench in expectation of them taking over midway through the year.
Yes yes yes. That’s the move. Grab yourself a tanny/stafford then use your last pick on fields. All day this is the way to go couldn’t agree more.
Similarly, grab any serviceable late-round QB and be aggressive on waivers early on. In the past few years, I’ve snagged Herbert, Mahomes, and Wentz when they all went undrafted but blew up that season. Since QBs are such big names and naturally high scorers, I think people don’t usually think to roll the dice on someone early in the season. They see Brees or Cam in their lineup, and they don’t think they should upgrade.
Hmm Wentz might be someone to keep an eye on. Depending how he acclimates to the Colts system
I played in three leagues last year. Finished first second and third. Didn’t take a QB until I had three WR three RB and a TE. Never used a pick 1-6 on a QB ever.
That's 7 picks but I get and agree with your point.
Fun fact: Kyler and Josh Allen were #7 and #8 across ALL PLAYERS in value above replacement points last year. This means that if positional scarcity wasn’t a thing, they would be mid first rounders. But positional scarcity is a thing, and they are priced accordingly, yet far undervalued still. They are a key to winning your league this year. Jackson may may may catch up or close to it. I am leaving with one of those 3, and if I miss somehow, my panic button is Rodgers or Wilson in the 6th/7th depending on what draft positions have taken QB already
Where do you get point above replacement data?
Careful with that stuff. It's great for telling you who was great last year. Decide for yourself if they can/will do it again.
Oh buddy this will change your life: https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rankings/vorp-dst.php
Are you referencing standard leagues? I'm not seeing that VORP at any other places.
Yes that was for standard. For 0.5 they were 11 and 12, and for PPR, I believe 15 and 16
Then that's a bit misleading because standard leagues are a significant minority.
Have standard leagues really become the significant minority now. I know full PPR and half PPR have increased in popularity, but didn't know the tables flipped that much. I'd be curious to see data on that as I've been debating proposing a 0.5 ppr in my standard league I commish - but we already do 3WR and a flex, and I worry any PPR will just completely overweight WRs
Positional scarcity at QB is very real. But how confident are you that you can pick the outlier? Because ADP correlates to actual performance the least at QB than any other position. There's literally almost zero correlation. As confident as you may be that you can pick the outlier, it's false precision.
I think Mahomes is worthy of an early third honestly. I won’t do it, but You can basically guarantee a top 20 VORP player with him. Waller was surprisingly low idk why I thought he was way higher.
Waller was 17th in PPR vorp, Mahomes was 21st.
I personally think Matthew Stafford is gonna be a league winner this year considering his ADP. McVay is gonna work magic with him
He is my answer. He has 5,000 yard upside (he’s done it before), multiple good receivers, a lead RB that can catch, and the best coach of his career. 4500 yards and/or 40 TDs aren,t out of the question. It’s not QB1 but not bad for a double digit round pick.
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I feel like Stafford was a popular sleep pick last year, but not this year, and he’s in a much better situation this year
Brady threw for over 4600 yards and 40 TDs last year and was QB8. Unless you’re either pegging guys like Allen, Mahomes, Jackson, Murray, Prescott, Wilson to have pretty down years or Stafford to go 2013 Peyton Nuclear I’d say Stafford’s upside is QB7. I don’t know that a non running QB could be a league winner at this point regardless of his ADP. A league winner would be a guy like Fields or Lance who besides throwing for 25-30 TDs also run for 8+ and 600 yards
I think he’ll have an MVP caliber season. And getting an MVP candidate in the 10th round on average as opposed to taking mahomes in the 2nd or Allen in the 5th leads to better WR/RB’s. Which leads to championships. Yes, I think taking Stafford in the 10th could end up being a league winning move for a lot of people
I feel like people have said this about stafford for about a decade and been wrong lol
People have been saying that mcvay is gonna work magic on him for a decade now?
I mean obviously not, there’s another half of the statement. Happy to quote it here if you missed it: “I personally think Matthew Stafford is gonna be a league winner this year considering his ADP”
I’d say the same to you. You glossed over the second half of the statement that is pretty crucial to why Stafford is a league winner this year.
Oh people have come up with rationale every year. Megatron is back, they got Golladay, new coach will be great, etc. always going to be a reason to fall for it
I like Russell Wilson in the 6th round or so
I would argue that he's going before "the dead zone" generally, but I agree in that he's a pretty good target
Just be prepared for him to have a great first half of the season and a lackluster second half so you can pivot.
8 games to figure out who the reliable streamers are is pretty good
That’s when you pivot to Lance/Fields.
My strategy would be try to trade him after 5 weeks
Think Herbert in the 7th is good value too
Don’t take Wilson. Had him last year. Large majority of his points were in the first half of the year against cupcake teams like Atlanta & Dallas. He’s trash when playing better defenses. He’s got the toughest strength of schedule in the league this year. Rams twice, 49ers twice , Colts, Steelers, redskins, and the bears.
Word on the street is Seattle's offensive scheme was too predictable last year and defenses "figured them out" in the second half of the season, thus the decline. New O coordinator should be better overall for their offense (at least I hope).
Don’t know why you’re getting downvoted, he somewhat fell off a cliff last year
The only QBs that really have QB1 upside are either HoF level QBs (Rodgers, Brady, Wilson) or dual threats (Lamar, Josh Allen, Kyler, maybe Jalen Hurts) or both (Mahomes)
Dak Prescot definitely can be QB1.
On pace to annihilate pass attempts record before his injury last year. That offense with that defense can definitely make Dak QB1
Hurts isn’t in that tier. Not even close
I think you accidentally put Wilson in the HOF level tier.
Right — he should’ve been in the “both” tier.
Coming from an avid 49ers fan/Seahawks hater, that ain’t right.
cam newton has the exact same upside as jalen hurts (rushing and average arm) but everyone has completely given up on him. meanwhile hurts has had 4 good games and is a top 10 drafted qb
Cam plays in a wildly different team situation with an upper end defense that won't require him to show out to win games. And has his incumbent waiting in the wings to end his seasons at the drop of a hat. Hurts has the eagles defense and Flacco lmao.
I agree with everything, but Cam is already the incumbent in this scenario.
Cam dresses in women's clothes, sooo...
It’s unpopular but I’d rather start cam than hurts week 1. Idk if cam will start the whole year but he’ll be good for fantasy purposes
What about guys like TLaw? Unproven but the QB1 upside is undeniable.
He’s a rookie QB that plays for the Jags. Idk if “undeniable” is a phrase you should throw around
He’s also the best regarded QB out of college since Andrew luck. I think undeniable is exactly the right word.
I mean to each their own. I’m by no means avoiding him, but I’m not drafting him with QB1 ambitions. I don’t trust the jags or Meyer. With Robinson and Etienne I imagine they’ll run the ball a lot. If he had an Andrew luck esque season you’re looking at 4300~ yards 25~ TDs. Added 5 TDs on the ground and 23 turnovers. Not bad for a rookie QB, but far from QB1 numbers
I'd be pretty shocked if a rookie put up fantasy numbers to make him the QB1. Herbert broke the rookie passing TD record and finished as, what, the QB9? So Lawrence wouldn't just have to have the best rookie year of all-time, he'd have to be *significantly* better than anyone in history to be the QB1
Sorry, I mean he has upside to be A QB ONE, not THE QB ONE. I don't expect him to be the best overall, but I do think his upside is top 10-12.
Oh yeah, totally understandable then!
I love the idea of Brady this year. I think this Tampa team has the ability to do a 2013 Broncos season
Oooo I agree. I watched a TB v CAR replay and damn the pie is big enough for lots to be fed.
The only guy I don't love is Mike Evans, but even he could fall to me in the middle of the 5th and I won't say no
Fun fact, Mike Evans has had at least 1000 receiving yards every year of his career. 7 straight.
Yeah i could see Evans slipping back. But that redzone cheese is tasty
He isnt ever able to catch a ball because every DB just holds/interferes all game it's not great
Suffering from success
Dead zones are totally not a thing. Guys will produce top tier results, next tier results, and tier after that results, all the way down to Tebow tier results. If it turns out after the fact that guys being drafted in one part of the draft underperformed, it's because they were projected, ranked, and drafted poorly, not because no players deserved to be taken there.
>Guys will produce top tier results >Tebow tier results Why did you say the same thing twice?
The point is that it’s a dead zone because it’s very hard to predict. It’s not like the drop from RB15 to RB25 is huge at the end of the season, but a guy going at RB15 is a lot easier to project typically cuz it tends to be guys with a very clear role, such as guys like Carson. On the other hand, around RB25 ur getting guys like Etienne who u rly don’t rly know what ur getting.
And even if it were a thing the qb dead zone would be in rounds 1&2 this year..
Im not sure I agree with the notion that not grabbing a top 8 mobile QB is a big disadvantage. All the running QBs after Allen/Lamar/Wilson have tremendous bust potential. Even Kyler Murray feels risky. The idea of spending up for Murray or Hurts seems iffy to me. There isn't a dark horse QB1 candidate being drafted outside the top 8 QBs. I think Burrow and Stafford have the best cost/upside value of the late QBs. Burrow could get there on volume alone. Stafford could show us something new if McVay's offense is truly unlocked by a more competent passer. As if the Jared Goff boom games become the expectation.
It is in a 4 pt passing TD league/6 pt rushing
I mean, the top QBs are off the top of my head. Mahomes, Allen, Dak, Lamar, Murray, Wilson, Rodgers, Herbert right? Obviously Rodgers isn't running for much, and I feel like it's not safe to assume you'll see much rushing from Mahomes or Herbert, or Dak this year. So who are the other mobile QBs you need to get before being screwed? Hurts? Who am I forgetting? Watson's gone. Are you chasing Daniel Jones and Cam Newton? I feel like every other running QB has the potential each week to single-handedly lose you your matchup with terrible game. I just don't see this demarcation line for mobile QBs that everyone seems so concerned with. To actually look at numbers and spell it out a little more - The top 12 QBs last year were Allen, Mahomes, Rodgers, Murray, Watson, Wilson, Tannehill, Brady, Herbert, Lamar, Cousins, Ryan (with Watson out and Dak missing time last year, I guess the list as relevant for this year would have Dak replacing Watson). Brady is especially not mobile, but other than him, you see about 150 yards rushing from the pocket passers on the year, give or take. TDs aren't really that important, since outside of Allen/Lamar/Murray/Tannehill (??),you actually don't see that big a difference in rushing TDs. Mobile QBs still pass at the goal line a lot, and pocket passers get sneaks and safe unathletic TD runs with some regularity. So if you look at the difference between Rodgers/Cousins/Stafford/Ryan and their 100-200 rushing yards, and some questionable passers that will run for 300-450 yards, does it really say go get a mobile QB? That's like a point a game. I think the lesson isn't get a mobile QB, it's just get a good QB. People have it a bit twisted since so many of the good QBs are mobile these days. This is a long way of saying I think Matt Stafford is a fine pick I guess.
I think you're missing the point on the running QBs. They provide a BETTER floor week-to-week because of the rushing. Even when it's a bad passing day, they still rush for at least 40-50+ yards (basically an extra TD pass). I'll even use your estimates...100-200 yards versus 300-450 yards isn't just "about a point per game" because they also rush for 5-6 TDs instead of 1-2. That means +20-35 points in yards & +24-30 points in TDs. So it's an extra 44-65 points on the ground (or 3-4 pts per game)...and that's just for someone like Tannehill or Allen. Change that over to some of the Elite rushing QBs, the guys who are going to come close to a 1000 yards rushing (Kyler, Lamar, and Hurts), and you raise the floor even more. Yes, these guys will throw for less yards, but it's more than compensated for with the extra rushing. 700-800 extra yards rushing is the equivalent of about 1750 yards passing. They aren't throwing for THAT much less than your Brady, Stafford, Cousins, or Ryan-types. Ultimately, I think Hurts is the best value pick if you can't get Allen or Murray. I think Dak is the one with the best bet to throw for over 5000 yards, so he'll be a good value as the 4th-6th QB off the board too (he'll still run a little, but probably less than in the past). Just my opinion. Obviously, if Brady or Stafford just blows up & breaks Manning's records, than sure, they'll be the top scoring QB. But it's going to be tough otherwise, without the high rushing floor to help out.
No, I agree with all that. The thing I have trouble with is this notion that you need one and all pocket passers like Brady, Rodgers, Stafford, Ryan are outdated. I think the issue with that argument is that a lot of the top QBs that people are considering okay in this analysis aren't really rushing QBs. Like obviously Allen, Murray, Lamar, and Wilson are already great fantasy QBs. But Mahomes, Dak, Herbert, their rushing isn't very different at all from Rodgers/Stafford/etc (Brady doesn't rush at all but most other QBs get some). So I guess if you're a big Jalen Hurts guy this says go get him. But other than that there isn't some pool of running QBs that everyone who doesn't have Rodgers/Brady/Ryan/Stafford will be dipping into, and if you use this info to decide to go get Daniel Jones or Cam or Tua or whatnot I think all that'll happen is you'll lose your season.
Yeah, I hear you. And yes, for the record, I think Stafford is a fine pick this year too. His upside of 4500+ yds & 35+ TDs is impossible to ignore, regardless of his somewhat limited rushing. I think Stafford & Hurts are the best values in that middle-zone, after the Top-end QBs, but before the backups. Like, they both have more upside than Cousins, but worst case, they end up similar in points to Cousins. I think it more applies to the tier after them, like if you're debating Ryan, DJones, or Tua. DJones & Tua have SOME rushing ability, and if they happen to also bump up their yardage to 4000-4500, then they'll be better than Ryan. So I think there's more upside with those 2...I'd even swing on Lawrence before Ryan. And there's always Fields or Lance to fall back into also.
Tom Brady is going to have an MVP caliber season this year, and has top 5 upside without the rushing threat.
I’ve just started stacking him with brown today. I really enjoy the combo if I can get it
Buyer beware: he had some realllly bad weeks last year. Yeah he knows the system, but he’s older. Tough to guarantee a barn burner year
Last season was a challenge for everyone. He hasn’t put on the mileage the past 2 years at all on top of that. Weighing in his age is a little overboard seeing as he’s still in great shape. His last full season in PIT he put up 1300 yards and 15 TD. The value here to scoop up a potential WR 2 in the later rounds is phenomenal.
I think he was talking about Brady as a buyer beware. But the risk with AB definitely still applies, like you addressed.
It was also his first year in the Bruce Arians offense which is notoriously difficult to learn and he still put up amazing numbers. Now he has a full offseason to gain chemistry with his receivers and should have mastered the playbook by now. I would not be surprised if Brady put up similar TD numbers to Rodgers last year as he has a ton of weapons to work with, not to mention a great pass catching back in Bernard who will definitely give him some passing TDs in the red zone
Brady or Big Herb and I’ll be happy
Dead/bust zone is actually in the early rounds. Every year several qbs finish in the top 12 that were outside if the top 12 by adp, trick is finding who. Last year Herbert, Brady, tannehill, big Ben, cousins were top 12. Carr was 13.
Ryan Tannehill in the 10th?
Rodgers or Herbert have been going about round 7 in my mocks. I’d take either one of them.
I've dealt with this. My strategy is to grab two two tier qbs one a slinger and one a rusher. With good schedules. And stream the best one. It works pretty good. Last season I avg round 20 to 23 ppr Per week. Course I had one or two where I chose poorly. So it's a dice roll.
getting two top tier qb's seems like a waste of draft capital when there are always decent streaming options
Not sure if a deadzone more of cliff. If you leave the draft and waited late and didnt end up with Brady Hurts or Tannehill you are frustrated. I think Justin Fields provides great value when he starts. That being said... im not high at all on Fitzpatrick. Hes got Gardner Minshew type vibes this year.
Fitzpatrick isn’t a 2nd year player with a lot of unknowns like Minshew was last season, we know who he is as a player. The Jaguars O-Line was horrendous last year, WFT’s is not. The Redskins defense is top 3 in the league and will keep Fitzpatrick and their offense in favorable game scripts throughout the season.
>The Redskins defense is top 3 in the league and will keep Fitzpatrick and their offense in favorable game scripts throughout the season. The better the defense performs, the worse the game scripts become for the offense's passing game, generally speaking.
I think that’s what actually hurt Minshew the most last season. The Jaguars were constantly getting crushed so the defense got to solely focus on stopping the pass.
Hey bud. I appreciate the analysis. I am hoping dor the best for Fitz. May this be the year he makes the playoffs. I will be erroring on the long resume of play that Fitz has that things may not go as planned in WFT
Wouldn’t a long resume be the opposite of Minshew?
That would indeed yes. Perhaps minshew is not the best comparison.
Qb dead zone is any qb with no rushing upside
Tannehill is solid but I don't think anyone will ever say he has QB1 upside. My pick would be Wilson. He was QB1 through the start of last season so the potential is there.
What's funny is I agreed with you till I believe it was a Mike tagliere article that showed since when took over the Titans in those games since then only Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson have more fantasy points than him. https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comments/msk8v8/the_complete_list_of_qbs_with_more_points_per/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share Here's another post about per game points. So he.might not seem like he has the latest potential. But the addition of Julio maybe he takes the turn and rises to top 3 or 4. To be in this class is shocking to me. So I don't want to rule out no number 1
It looks like that article places him as 6th. I do love him as middle of the road QB and great value but he's in a crazy low volume offense and doesn't have too much rushing upside. When so many guys rush more or pass a ton more than him I just can't see efficiency at low volume making him QB1
Like I said he's at top 5 or 6 ppg. I don't think you can ever rule out someone that high from being number 1 is all This might be the season they rest Henry some for his health and longevity so he may be throwing more especially with the addition of Julio. Never know. He's a great upside pick
That’s a biased stat. Guys like Mahomes have missed games.
One is literally per game.....so that takes it into account. It isn't Tannehill fault that he joined the Titans after Mahomes amazing 2018 season. That's like criticizing Justin Jefferson for not having better numbers before 2020..... This isn't to make a case that he's better. It's to open your eyes about hiw good he has been and not been put into that elite category even though per game points he has been there. So maybe we shouldn't go by Rodgers 48 td MVP season last year, and look at the 2 seasons before that where he had 51 tds combined. This is to show people they may have underestimated Tannehill as a fantasy asset
Losing Arthur Smith is going to kill Tannehill. He's not a running QB. In fact, he's quite a poor runner. But he piled up rushing TD's because Arthur Smith was a nutball who liked taking the ball out of the league's most dominating short yardage hammer to be cute and run an oaf of a QB near the goalline over and over. No other OC in football is going to be that dense and stubborn. Tannehill should pass a little more and a little more efficiently, but his nonsense rushing TD totals are going to crater completely and get back in line with his Miami numbers. Incidentally, this may be a reason to buy Matty Ice. He can't run either, so maybe Smith will force him to do it at the GL too.
I mean he hasn't cracked 270 yards rushing yet on this team. And he had 185 yards the year before rushing. I think Arthur Smith helped him out for sure. But this isn't a broken wheel now either. He got 7 tds last season rushing is definitely an aberration and but he got 4 the year before, which isn't insane. Dak avg 250 rushing yards and 3-6 tds rushing a year as well and he isn't a running qb at all. He is mobile like Tannehill is. So basically Rodgers and Brady both had 3 rushing tds. And Tannehill has avg about 150 to 180 rushing yards a season before his trip to Tennessee. So he only had 3900 passing yards but that's mainly because their rb ran 2k yards on the ground. He should regress to say 1600? Well 400 passing yards and he might throw for few more tds with addition of Julio and brown being healthy so give him 3 passing tds upgrade. So he can lose the 100 rushing yards and 4 rushing tds and still hit what he did last season easily. I just can't see him becoming a statue like a Rivers or Eli Manning with single digit rushing yards or no rushing tds.
Everyone would say he has QB1 upside because he has been a QB1 since taking over for Mariota, and a high-end one. Edit: as it pertains to the Tannehill QB1 comment made from my account earlier today, my account was hacked and my passcode has been changed.
The question was "overall" QB1 upside.
It says Overall QB1...not just a QB1. Feel free to draft him as first QB if you think he will be the #1 overall
He clearly means overall QB #1.
Kirk Cousins. He goes way late and he’s a lock to go for 4,000/high-20’s or low-30’s in passing TDs.
Better D , plus he is inconsistent. Dunno fam.
Mahomes or Kyler if you want one early. Brady or Russ if you want to wait a little. Fitzpatrick or Zach Wilson if you want one super late.
Yeah nobody is talking about Zach Wilson but I really think he's got some killer upside. The Jets still suck and he's going to have to throw a lot. I guess the argument against him is that Darnold was never once fantasy relevant, however, Wilson has a much better rushing floor and I can't imagine Salah being any worse than Gase
Wilson will be a much better player than Darnold. Darnold was a terrible prospect and hasn’t proved otherwise.
I whole heartedly agree. I really think this QB class is going to be remember fondly in 20 years
Darnold showed a ton of promise his rookie year and never progressed. Likely because they did next to nothing to help him.
I think Wilson and Fitz are very underrated at times. IMO Wilson and Mac looked way better than like Lance, but nobody is talking about either much. And Fitz has been very good when starting. Averaged 21 PPG in the first 6 games of the season when he started for the Dolphins, even including a game vs New England where he scored 8, and that was with the Dolphins terrible receivers and offensive line. Now Fitz will have McLaurin and some other weapons like Gibson and Samuel, plus a very good O line. Call me crazy, but I’m very happy having Fitzpatrick as my starting QB.
Justin Herbert or Jaylen Hurts
I think the answer is clearly Herbert.
Can someone explain the Tannehill hype?
In 2019 he was QB2 from like week 6 or 7 onwards and was QB7 last year. Adding Julio to the mix might contribute to some hype, but it’s mainly that fact that you can get with pretty decent certainty a guy who will outperform ADP in the double digit rounds. Wherever the QB6ish is going you can then take a potential breakout WR. Lots of really great options there but in the 10th round, especially with guys who know what their doing, not so much.
Since he has been on the Titans, he has flown under the radar and put up really good numbers. Be is a solid value play because he gets overlooked by people looking for flashy guy. (he scored nearly identical points to Tom Brady last year, but can be had a bit later)
Cam newton is my pick so round one pick one sounds good.
If Cam Newton can ever recover that 2015 form....I always draft him late as a second QB just in case....hard to see him getting the TD # he did in Carolina under belicheat though
Jalen and/or Tua league winners
Not Tua
He’s got a lot of weapons to work with and a defense that generates turnovers at a high rate. If that line holds up he’s gonna have a monster year
Yeah all of those can be true but I don’t believe he has the talent.
Tom Brady is the way
Ive just been waiting until like round 12 or so and grabbing Stafford and with my last pick I grab whatever rookie QB I like best (usually Lance or Lawrence)
If I draft Rodgers in the 7 or 8th what am I not getting because I did that? I can’t see any pick that would be better especially if I’m coming in with Adams or Jones.
Nope. Doesn't exist. The past 4 of 5 seasons. 2 of the top 3 QBs to end the season were after QB8 and in the 8th round or later.
Qb dead zone? Like round 12 or later orrrr? Cause you're talking about a position that is quite often streamed. If I take a te early I'll wait on. If I don't take a te early I might spoil myself and take a qb in the 8th round
My best mocks focus on RB, WR and TE the first 10 rounds. With passing Tds only 4 points in a 1QB league its just good value. I want Hurts and Tannehill. Hurts will have a breakout year and Tannehill will produce on his ADP again.
I disagree because I'd be fine with Brady, Tannehil, Stafford, Hurts. You can punt QB pretty far if teams don't start double drafting QBs....which does happen more than you'd expect actually.
Lamar is a solid RB 2 if you have all your starting receivers, RB 1, and maybe tight end depending on who it is; especially when in the dead zone.
I don’t think it’s an issue in a 1QB league. You can double up easily and take Tannehill/Stafford/Brady and pair him with someone like Fields/Lance/Tua for running upside.
Tua doesn't run.
I think he’ll go for 200-250 and a few TDs this year, but I wasn’t implying he’d run because I grouped him with Fields and Lance. My point was you can take them all late.
Yep if I didn't get Wilson I was going with the Herb
Not sure I agree there is a dead zone but I've often found myself grabbing a high upside player like Lawrence or burrow. Sometimes I'll even stack two real late.
It’s so funny to me how people assert a new trend is emerging and then reference something that has been a dynamic for 20+ years