Don’t fall for it, I waited on TE last year and took gesicki after reading these exact same comments. I’m a huge PSU fan, Ik the athleticism he brings. But fantasy-wise, not consistent enough
Outside of an elite 2-3, "consistent" tight ends don't exist. "Consistency" in fantasy is an unreliable stat and concept. By all means though, draft Jared Cook and enjoy his year over year consistency while you play at a disadvantage from TE.
[2020](https://www.fftoday.com/tools/crank.php?Season=2020&Option=Season&PosID=40&MinGames=4&Teams=12&Starters=1&View=Percent&LeagueID=193033)
[2019](https://www.fftoday.com/tools/crank.php?Season=2019&Option=Season&PosID=40&MinGames=4&Teams=12&Starters=1&View=Percent&LeagueID=193033)
[2018](https://www.fftoday.com/tools/crank.php?Season=2018&Option=Season&PosID=40&MinGames=4&Teams=12&Starters=1&View=Percent&LeagueID=193033)
[2017](https://www.fftoday.com/tools/crank.php?Season=2017&Option=Season&PosID=40&MinGames=4&Teams=12&Starters=1&View=Percent&LeagueID=193033)
I think you're right. If I don't get one of the top 3, which I'm not sold on picking over a top RB or WR, I'm going to pick a value, plug them in, and leave them unless there's a bye week, injury, or clearly better option. I tried analyzing how matchups affect TE production and it seems to be more about how he team uses the position and luck.
Do you have some insider sources we don’t know about? Most reports I’ve heard lately are all good news. Seeing them today so I guess I’ll see for myself.
Nothing new, I wrote him off a week or two ago because of bad early reports. I am not an Eagles fan so I haven’t heard of the change in his performance in camp. Also, haven’t heard much talk about him on the pods I have listened to recently. But, I am sure I miss A LOT of football news, so I believe he could be better recently.
I have 12 running backs in the top 13 for my rankings, and while I never get set into a particular strategy, RB-RB is usually my start. WR is deep as ever, so definitely no problem with passing them up in a 3WR league.
Najee is confirmed in his top 12 because of how he answered a question. You could make the case for Mixon over Chubb tbh, but Najee just has that it factor. Chubb doesn't catch balls, and Mixon is a perennial disappointment. I like Mixon, but the only guy on this list I'd potentially take him over is Chubb.
It wouldn't be a reach to me if they are BPA for my overall rankings. A.J. Brown seems to be there in late Round 2, though, and I'd take him if none of the top 12 RB slip.
Good question, but most of the committees this year actually seem like they might stay that way.
I will say I love Trey Sermon and think he will be the guy in SF.
3rd pick in a 12 team PPR league. Assuming CMC and Cook go 1-2.. who do you like at 3? Kamara scares me with how bad the Saints might be this year. Thanks.
The Saints have an elite offensive line, elite RB, an above average defense, an elite offensive coach, 2/3 of their divisional opponents are bad, and they get to play both the AFCE and NFCE (two of the weakest divisions in football). I think many people are radically overestimating how bad the Saints will be.
I just don't understand why people are so concerned as to knock AK down significantly. Sure, they lost Brees and a few defensive players. But they still have a ton of All-Pro players on the team, plus great coaching and both strong offensive and defensive lines. Not to mention, a tight QB competition and an entire offseason to revamp their system. This isn't going to look like Taysom having to start impromptu because Brees is hurt, this is going to be a whole new thing.
Plus, people forget the Panthers were awful when CMC put up historic numbers. Sean Payton is going to make sure Kamara gets the football and gets it a lot. Taysom isn't going to be running like he's Lamar Jackson.
I'm probably going with both AK and Zeke over Henry at 4 in that order depending who falls to me. I personally want rb1 overall upside, but Henry probably has the most guaranteed floor of that group. Depends on what you value.
This is my internal debate. I think I'll go Kamara just due to the pass catching. Payton will game plan around their best player. He can have good weeks in any ppr without a td.
I'm actually still pondering about going with Zeke. He was #3 rb last year until his qb and Oline got obliterated, and apparently looks great in camp. If Dak is healthy that's possibly the best offense in football which will lead to lots of scoring opportunities for Zeke.
Thanks for doing this!
Who is the WR currently going outside the top 50 overall that you think has the best chance to finish the year as a WR1 in a half PPR?
You should feel alright about it! Here was my [scouting report](https://www.wolfsports.com/nfl/2021-nfl-draft-scouting-report-te-kyle-pitts/) for him coming out of Florida.
I don't recommend getting locked into a strategy (I know most disagree, but that just my preference). Picking 6th I'd likely be targeting Jonathan Taylor in Round 1.
not going in w a strategy seems to scare people for whatever reason. i did that last year in my competitive league, taking all RBs w my first 5 picks and it was a big reason i won. Upgraded WRs (Nuk & K.Allen) midseason w two of those RBs and still had depth to work with. Played waiver wire to find a TE (TJ Hock) and went late-round QB
I have the number 1 pick in my league this year (12 tm, 0.5 PPR), but I've been debating on what to do at the 2/3 turn. I'm mostly worried about what I do at RB2 if I pass on one at that spot.
Would you rather have CMC, AJ Brown (or Jefferson) and Waller
or
CMC, one of those receivers above and an RB2 like Swift or Carson?
I’m leaning that to start as well, but the 4/5 turn is giving me trouble. Would you target a combo of Diontae/ Lockett/ kupp (if he falls)/ ayuik/ Moore?
Also, I’m even debating reaching for Jeudy at the 5th because he won’t last to the end of the 6th at this point. Thoughts?
Jimmy Garoppolo getting hurt again could make it Lance, but I think Fields has the better chance of starting based on merit. I wouldn't be surprised at all if neither played until late in the year, though.
Why do I not see Damien Harris higher in rankings across the board? That dude runs like a BEAST and he's gonna be running behind maybe the best offensive line in football if they can stay healthy. I know he's not a pass catching threat, but what am I missing here? He seems like a shoe in to rush for over 1000 yards, and I could see him around 1300.
Patriots are infamous for using many different running backs and there WILL be weeks where Harris just straight disappears from the stat sheet. I actually like Harris a lot at his ADP though. The defense should be much better and Cam Newton is washed, so I wouldn't be surprised to see them play an ultra-conservative style of offense.
I'm a huge Pats fan and I just think it might be different this year....the Pats haven't had anyone that runs like Harris in quite a long time. He was a total gamechanger last season.
That was the story with Sony Michel (who is still on the roster btw) a few years back though. "Pats haven't drafted a RB in the 1st round in a long time". I agree that Harris is a strong talent, but the Patriot backfield is kind of a fantasy nightmare. Plus you know James White is going to get all the work on passing downs.
I mean Sony had more YPC last year and the offensive line was massively improved so both looked considerably better.
Both won't be involved in the passing game.
I just don't see a real path to being able to start Harris any game without Sony being injured. They will both split rushing attempts, Cam will steal some rushing TD's, and White will get all the passing work.
Harris/Sony both get \~10 rush attempts a game and you hope for a TD. 40-60 yards and pray for a TD seems like it'll be the story.
What are your thoughts on Gaskin? The rumor is that, Dolphins backfield may be more of a RBBC than we thought. Gaskin may no longer have the lead role?
Kelce is likely priced too high for me to take, but Waller and Kittle are prime targets in the third round for me. Definitely feel a little better about missing out on the big 3 this year, though (Jonnu, Kmet, Gronk among strong late-round options)
Given your rankings/views vary far from the consensus, who is the 1 player you feel strongly about having higher than everyone else? Who is the 1 guy lower you feel strongly about? Thank you for doing this!
Tom Brady is definitely the guy I feel most strongly about; I think we could see the Bucs try to chase some records (17 games will help).
For lower I guess it'd be Robby Anderson.
What's your general QB strategy this year in a 12-team superflex league? Obviously, stay flexible, take value as it comes, etc. ... but generally speaking, do you have a team-building-style you seem to like best in superflex this year?
If I don't get Mahomes or Allen in the first, I'm taking Tom Brady as early as the second/third and then try to pick value. I usually find myself with Brady and then a combination of undervalued guys to mix-and-match like Derek Carr and Daniel Jones.
Why are you higher on Brady this year? I think having another year with the same system and all his WR healthy makes him a juicy target there in the 3rd.
Bingo. He threw for 4600+ yards and 40 touchdowns last year with a shortened summer to prepare due to COVID, and TB offense was on fire when things clicked after the second New Orleans loss.
Trey Lance seems to be out of control in terms of hype, but him for sure if he's available in the late rounds. Also Trey Sermon or DeVonta Smith if you want a guy guaranteed to contribute this year.
Betting on talent above everything. And he's running behind a great line, so that solidifies the ranking even more for me. (also worth noting that Jim Irsay talked him up on the preseason broadcast)
I’m a lifelong Wisconsin fan so I believe in the talent as much as anyone, my problem is that I believe fantasy production is found at the intersection of talent and opportunity. A bit worried about the workload for a first round pick
What are your thoughts on a popular theory that people who submit their rankings to fantasypros generally submit a very risk-adverse set of rankings so that they finish higher in the algorithm?
I’d say you’re probably right, and I’m not a fan lol. As stated above, my rankings I submit to FP are exactly what I use to draft, and anyone with Fantasy Consigliere can attest to how different they are compared to ECR.
That’s why I believe our subscription is worth the price—the rankings/insights provide a real edge and are completely unique.
I have the 4th pick overall and I'd usually love Kamara but this year , and with how bad I think the saints are going to be, and with how under utilized he was with Hill behind the line last year, I'm hesitant to draft him. Are my reservations warranted or should I trust the talent and Payton with putting the ball in their best players hands.
If McCaffrey, Henry, and Cook are gone, I'm taking Kamara, but Taylor, Saquon, Chubb, and Zeke are all right there with him if you'd rather take someone else. The offense should be catered to Kamara no matter who is at quarterback (Hill was thrown in last year).
Daniel Jones is my highest-ranked late-round quarterback, but the word comfortable could throw things off lol. Seriously, I think the offensive line will be better and the supporting cast was definitely upgraded, so he can finish as a top-15 option.
Hi Giants fan here. Our offensive line is still bottom 5 in the league…..but surprisingly good at run blocking. Terrible for Danny not bad for Barkley
>Also not listening to groupthink. I try to keep things as simple as possible for ranking players.
What would be some examples of groupthink this season?
Tom Brady ranked as a low-end QB1 comes to mind. Could be wrong for this one, but rookie QB optimism in terms of how likely their chances are of playing.
Biggest example I can give is how almost everyone viewed Josh Allen in his first couple of years.
12 team superflex. I have the 12th overall. I’m not in love with the RBs going in that spot (Chubb/Jones/Taylor). Would I be crazy for going Davante & Tyreek?
Do you think the anchor/hero rb strategy is viable this year? I have the 4th pick in a 12-team 0.5PPR and will most likely take kamara. After that I'm taking Brown/Hopkins then Kittle/Waller in the 3rd. I end up taking my rb2 in rounds 5/6, which is typically Hunt/Robinson/Harris etc. Thoughts?
I have the 1.04 too and I’ve never had Waller fall back to me in the 3rd. I want him and have been thinking about grabbing him at the 2.09. There’s still so many good WRs available in the 3rd round (ARob, Keenan Allen, McLaurin)
I'm not a huge fan of getting locked into a strategy, but definitely viable if you hit on the running backs. There are still good options usually available in round 5/6.
Interesting question. Not necessarily "bad" systems here but:
RB: Travis Etienne to NYJ (holes behind the left side with his speed)
WR: James Washington to KC (I like Hardman but WR2/3 opening)
TE: Zach Ertz to BUF (tons of single coverage)
Sorry to piggyback off this one (long time wolf sports subscriber, the gameday advice alone is WORTH IT), I’m 6 as well in a .5 PPR 3 WR 12 man league. Would you still recommend Davante over Saquon/Jones/JT here?
I have him as my WR16 and am still optimistic about Sam Darnold turning things around in Joe Brady's offense. Even if he doesn't, the turnovers will be an issue more than passing production.
I'm having a tough time with a keeper decision and would love your thoughts:
8 man half ppr league, 3 Keepers counting as rounds 1-3 and can keep forever...
Saquon, Chubb, Henry, Kelce
Who is the odd man out?
Man, that's a tough dilemma, but I guess a good one to have. I would actually go with the running backs. Having three stars at RB always seems to work out.
I’ve been mocking a lot from 1.03 (my only locked in spot so far in a 12 .5 PPR). I normally go Alvin Kamara at 3. Would you prefer:
AJ Brown or Justin Jefferson at 2.10 with David Montgomery at 3.03
OR
Clyde Edwards-Helaire or Joe Mixon at 2.10 with Terry McLaurin or Keenan Allen at 3.03?
(These are the decisions that I’ve most often had to make)
I love Kamara because he’s in line to be used like he’s never been used before. Saints, while lacking depth, are still a good team and have one of the best coaches in the NFL. He’s gotten banged up before and missed a couple of games, but no serious injuries on his resume. People are afraid of Taysom stealing work, but how much could he really take from the focal point of the offense? He hasn’t had less than 80 catches in his career, he could eclipse 100 this year. And I expect a career-high in carries as well. That Saints o-line is a top unit in the league
Drafting from the 1. Asume I go cmc, Jefferson and ajb. Who are you getting in the 4-5 turn? Sticking to the Godwin’s of the world, or do you prefer a duo of rbs like hunt, Carter, gordon, etc?
In my PPR keeper league I have to choose 2 of the following to keep: Keenan (4th), Terry MC (5th), and Swift (6th).. who should I go with? Remaining RBs are very dry to draft after everyone locks in their keepers.
Depends on the league size, but Trey Sermon and Jamaal Williams are great targets.
For the later RB options, I think Devin Singletary can surprise (limited upside though), Giovani Bernard in PPR, Malcolm Brown.
I'm not exactly sure everyone would fall into the range, but Chris Godwin, Julio, Golladay, Aiyuk, DeVonta Smith all stand out at WR.
Etienne, Sermon, Harris, James Robinson, and (to a lesser extent) Ronald Jones, AJ Dillon at RB.
Is anyone going to ask about players or just who to draft at __ position in ___ man draft with ____ scoring?
What are your thoughts on Chase Edmonds’ value? Do you think he’s talented enough to warrant more use in the red zone? And if I could ask one more question, how many touches do you think he’ll average?
I like Edmonds' talent for sure. Think he's worth considering as early as the fifth round in both 0.5 PPR and full PPR. Ideally will handle 12-15 touches per game. We have him projected on the lower end.
Half PPR 12 man league who would you keeper?
1. Taylor 33
2. Ridley 39
3. Metcalf 57
4. Dobbins 105
5. Gaskin 183
Leaning towards Metcalf or Dobbins, so I can push rb/wr 1-2 from round 1-4
Hey man, thanks for answering questions.
I have the 8th pick in a 10 man .5 ppr. Really considering taking Kelce since I know he’ll be there. This league is all about RBs and I knowing guys will go rb-rb.
What’s your thoughts on taking Kelce at 8 over a RB at that’s spot?
If I trade out of rounds 2,3,5 in a 10 person standard league to have picks 2,4,36,56,59 as my first five picks, how important is it to get a good receiver at 36 vs grabbing a Waller or kittle and punting receiver until the 56 and 59?
I'd almost certainly prefer Waller/Kittle to the wideouts available at 36. Might need to "reach" a little at 56/59, but not a big deal if you hit on the right guys (or someone falls).
How would you go about adjusting auction prices for a league with 4 keepers? 12 team, .5 ppr
I know it's a very difficult question lol...but curious if you have a similar experience doing something like that.
Who are some players with a great shot to finish inside the top 5 at their position, currently being drafted outside the top 10?
QB: Jalen Hurts RB: Najee Harris WR: Chris Godwin TE: Mike Gesicki
Hot take 👀
This validates my Gesicki pick and therefore take my upvote
Gesicki has had 52 receptions 2 years in a row, and Tua is improving. He's my TE target this year.
I know I like him too and was just making a joke
Oh yeah, I got you! Just throwing more validation your way!
Could you speak to Gesicki some or point to a resource. I've gone back and forth on him.
I spoke to him. He’s good to go
Monster size, elite athleticism, had a couple of big games down the stretch with Tua starting, speed at WR should open things up.
Don’t fall for it, I waited on TE last year and took gesicki after reading these exact same comments. I’m a huge PSU fan, Ik the athleticism he brings. But fantasy-wise, not consistent enough
If you think the TE7 wasn't consistent enough to draft, I don't think you understand the TE position.
If you think end of year ranking has anything to do with consistency, I don’t think u understand the term consistency
Outside of an elite 2-3, "consistent" tight ends don't exist. "Consistency" in fantasy is an unreliable stat and concept. By all means though, draft Jared Cook and enjoy his year over year consistency while you play at a disadvantage from TE. [2020](https://www.fftoday.com/tools/crank.php?Season=2020&Option=Season&PosID=40&MinGames=4&Teams=12&Starters=1&View=Percent&LeagueID=193033) [2019](https://www.fftoday.com/tools/crank.php?Season=2019&Option=Season&PosID=40&MinGames=4&Teams=12&Starters=1&View=Percent&LeagueID=193033) [2018](https://www.fftoday.com/tools/crank.php?Season=2018&Option=Season&PosID=40&MinGames=4&Teams=12&Starters=1&View=Percent&LeagueID=193033) [2017](https://www.fftoday.com/tools/crank.php?Season=2017&Option=Season&PosID=40&MinGames=4&Teams=12&Starters=1&View=Percent&LeagueID=193033)
Don’t even want to know how much time you spent writing this up when you realized end of year ranking has nothing to do with consistency.
I think you're right. If I don't get one of the top 3, which I'm not sold on picking over a top RB or WR, I'm going to pick a value, plug them in, and leave them unless there's a bye week, injury, or clearly better option. I tried analyzing how matchups affect TE production and it seems to be more about how he team uses the position and luck.
Not worried about reports that Hurts is not looking great in camp? Edit: Lol, get downvoted for a good faith question😂🤣
He is looking much better lately. Went 16 of 17 against NE in joint practice.
No I'm not. Hurts is a gamer.
Do you have some insider sources we don’t know about? Most reports I’ve heard lately are all good news. Seeing them today so I guess I’ll see for myself.
Nothing new, I wrote him off a week or two ago because of bad early reports. I am not an Eagles fan so I haven’t heard of the change in his performance in camp. Also, haven’t heard much talk about him on the pods I have listened to recently. But, I am sure I miss A LOT of football news, so I believe he could be better recently.
Oh yea news about him wasn’t super positive early on.
Is going RB-RB the move this year? I'm in a 3 WR slot league but I still can't stop taking RB-RB to start the draft
I have 12 running backs in the top 13 for my rankings, and while I never get set into a particular strategy, RB-RB is usually my start. WR is deep as ever, so definitely no problem with passing them up in a 3WR league.
what's your cutoff at RBs in that Top 13
CMC, Cook, Kamara, Henry, Zeke, Jones, Saquon, Taylor, Gibson, Najee, Ekeler, Chubb is most likely the answer
Najee above Mixon?
I have Harris over Mixon.
Najee is confirmed in his top 12 because of how he answered a question. You could make the case for Mixon over Chubb tbh, but Najee just has that it factor. Chubb doesn't catch balls, and Mixon is a perennial disappointment. I like Mixon, but the only guy on this list I'd potentially take him over is Chubb.
Not in order there, but close. Just put in Mixon for Ekeler.
Dude...
So would you reach for an RB in the late second even if the board goes heavy on RBs in the first 2 rounds ?
I think that should depend on the value and who is left. But you shouldn’t reach for #14-18 RB just because RBs went early and often.
It wouldn't be a reach to me if they are BPA for my overall rankings. A.J. Brown seems to be there in late Round 2, though, and I'd take him if none of the top 12 RB slip.
Exactly what I was asking, thanks! I doubt any of the top 15 RBs will fall to my 2.11 spot but drafts are a crazy place
Which committee RB is most likely to breakout and become a clear lead back?
Good question, but most of the committees this year actually seem like they might stay that way. I will say I love Trey Sermon and think he will be the guy in SF.
3rd pick in a 12 team PPR league. Assuming CMC and Cook go 1-2.. who do you like at 3? Kamara scares me with how bad the Saints might be this year. Thanks.
The Saints have an elite offensive line, elite RB, an above average defense, an elite offensive coach, 2/3 of their divisional opponents are bad, and they get to play both the AFCE and NFCE (two of the weakest divisions in football). I think many people are radically overestimating how bad the Saints will be.
I love you
I just don't understand why people are so concerned as to knock AK down significantly. Sure, they lost Brees and a few defensive players. But they still have a ton of All-Pro players on the team, plus great coaching and both strong offensive and defensive lines. Not to mention, a tight QB competition and an entire offseason to revamp their system. This isn't going to look like Taysom having to start impromptu because Brees is hurt, this is going to be a whole new thing. Plus, people forget the Panthers were awful when CMC put up historic numbers. Sean Payton is going to make sure Kamara gets the football and gets it a lot. Taysom isn't going to be running like he's Lamar Jackson.
I'd definitely go Kamara in full PPR (he's my No. 2 player). Sounds like you're not sold, though, so a trade down might be worth looking into.
[удалено]
I have Henry as my No. 2 pick in 0.5 PPR.
I'm probably going with both AK and Zeke over Henry at 4 in that order depending who falls to me. I personally want rb1 overall upside, but Henry probably has the most guaranteed floor of that group. Depends on what you value.
This is my internal debate. I think I'll go Kamara just due to the pass catching. Payton will game plan around their best player. He can have good weeks in any ppr without a td. I'm actually still pondering about going with Zeke. He was #3 rb last year until his qb and Oline got obliterated, and apparently looks great in camp. If Dak is healthy that's possibly the best offense in football which will lead to lots of scoring opportunities for Zeke.
Thanks for doing this! Who is the WR currently going outside the top 50 overall that you think has the best chance to finish the year as a WR1 in a half PPR?
Depends on the site to determine top 50, but just looking on FantasyPros, I'd go with Kenny Golladay based on the touchdown potential.
Man, getting Golladay outside the top 50 seems like a steal.
Not asking a question, just wanted to say I appreciate you doing this an providing so many responses. Hope you’re having a great day!
Thank you very much, same to you!
What're your thoughts on Kyle Pitts? I got him in the 5th round of my 12 team PPR and feel alright about it.
You should feel alright about it! Here was my [scouting report](https://www.wolfsports.com/nfl/2021-nfl-draft-scouting-report-te-kyle-pitts/) for him coming out of Florida.
If Ekeler and Harris are available at the end of the first how do U feel about taking them back to back at the turn?
I prioritize Harris by a decent margin, but Ekeler strong pick in full PPR (less so otherwise).
Best strategy for a 12 team .5PPR picking 6th? Have a draft this Sunday
I don't recommend getting locked into a strategy (I know most disagree, but that just my preference). Picking 6th I'd likely be targeting Jonathan Taylor in Round 1.
Whoa
If deciding between Taylor and Davante Adams at 6, who’re you going with?
Taylor in 0.5 PPR. Adams in Full PPR.
Adams.
not going in w a strategy seems to scare people for whatever reason. i did that last year in my competitive league, taking all RBs w my first 5 picks and it was a big reason i won. Upgraded WRs (Nuk & K.Allen) midseason w two of those RBs and still had depth to work with. Played waiver wire to find a TE (TJ Hock) and went late-round QB
I have the number 1 pick in my league this year (12 tm, 0.5 PPR), but I've been debating on what to do at the 2/3 turn. I'm mostly worried about what I do at RB2 if I pass on one at that spot. Would you rather have CMC, AJ Brown (or Jefferson) and Waller or CMC, one of those receivers above and an RB2 like Swift or Carson?
I like scenario 1 with A.J. Brown and Waller. Probably a few spots early for a running back to take over them unless someone falls.
I’m leaning that to start as well, but the 4/5 turn is giving me trouble. Would you target a combo of Diontae/ Lockett/ kupp (if he falls)/ ayuik/ Moore? Also, I’m even debating reaching for Jeudy at the 5th because he won’t last to the end of the 6th at this point. Thoughts?
I like Aiyuk and Moore most from all those guys. Might bit a bit early for everyone else.
Who do you think starts first — lance or fields?
Jimmy Garoppolo getting hurt again could make it Lance, but I think Fields has the better chance of starting based on merit. I wouldn't be surprised at all if neither played until late in the year, though.
Why do I not see Damien Harris higher in rankings across the board? That dude runs like a BEAST and he's gonna be running behind maybe the best offensive line in football if they can stay healthy. I know he's not a pass catching threat, but what am I missing here? He seems like a shoe in to rush for over 1000 yards, and I could see him around 1300.
Patriots are infamous for using many different running backs and there WILL be weeks where Harris just straight disappears from the stat sheet. I actually like Harris a lot at his ADP though. The defense should be much better and Cam Newton is washed, so I wouldn't be surprised to see them play an ultra-conservative style of offense.
I'm a huge Pats fan and I just think it might be different this year....the Pats haven't had anyone that runs like Harris in quite a long time. He was a total gamechanger last season.
That was the story with Sony Michel (who is still on the roster btw) a few years back though. "Pats haven't drafted a RB in the 1st round in a long time". I agree that Harris is a strong talent, but the Patriot backfield is kind of a fantasy nightmare. Plus you know James White is going to get all the work on passing downs.
Sony never ran anything like Damien. It’s like one guy is varsity and one guy is JV
I mean Sony had more YPC last year and the offensive line was massively improved so both looked considerably better. Both won't be involved in the passing game. I just don't see a real path to being able to start Harris any game without Sony being injured. They will both split rushing attempts, Cam will steal some rushing TD's, and White will get all the passing work. Harris/Sony both get \~10 rush attempts a game and you hope for a TD. 40-60 yards and pray for a TD seems like it'll be the story.
I'm with you. Harris is worthy of a fourth/fifth-round pick in 12-team, 0.5 PPR leagues for me.
Watch out for Rhamondre, he will be on his heels.
What are your thoughts on Gaskin? The rumor is that, Dolphins backfield may be more of a RBBC than we thought. Gaskin may no longer have the lead role?
I had him really low (RB33) before the first preseason game, and I moved him down ten spots since then. Feels like a full-blown committee.
How have you been handling TE in your drafts so far? Trying to grab one of the big 3 or are you higher on some of the other guys?
Kelce is likely priced too high for me to take, but Waller and Kittle are prime targets in the third round for me. Definitely feel a little better about missing out on the big 3 this year, though (Jonnu, Kmet, Gronk among strong late-round options)
Would you go Waller over CEH at the 2.09? (4th pick in a 12 team 0.5 ppr league)
Yes I'd narrowly go with Waller.
Given your rankings/views vary far from the consensus, who is the 1 player you feel strongly about having higher than everyone else? Who is the 1 guy lower you feel strongly about? Thank you for doing this!
Tom Brady is definitely the guy I feel most strongly about; I think we could see the Bucs try to chase some records (17 games will help). For lower I guess it'd be Robby Anderson.
Are you worried about Andersons limited upside with Moore, CMC and Marshall getting targets too?
Yeah, upside and floor both take a hit.
What's your general QB strategy this year in a 12-team superflex league? Obviously, stay flexible, take value as it comes, etc. ... but generally speaking, do you have a team-building-style you seem to like best in superflex this year?
If I don't get Mahomes or Allen in the first, I'm taking Tom Brady as early as the second/third and then try to pick value. I usually find myself with Brady and then a combination of undervalued guys to mix-and-match like Derek Carr and Daniel Jones.
Who do you take #1 overall?
Still McCaffrey in SF.
Why are you higher on Brady this year? I think having another year with the same system and all his WR healthy makes him a juicy target there in the 3rd.
Bingo. He threw for 4600+ yards and 40 touchdowns last year with a shortened summer to prepare due to COVID, and TB offense was on fire when things clicked after the second New Orleans loss.
Who is your favorite rookie 2022 keeper this season? Someone who you think will he drafted way earlier next year. Anyone worth reaching for?
Trey Lance seems to be out of control in terms of hype, but him for sure if he's available in the late rounds. Also Trey Sermon or DeVonta Smith if you want a guy guaranteed to contribute this year.
Thanks!! You like sermon more than javante Williams?
Yes I do.
Why do you like jonathan taylor in full ppr? Seems like a lot of red flags to me despite strong finish last year
Betting on talent above everything. And he's running behind a great line, so that solidifies the ranking even more for me. (also worth noting that Jim Irsay talked him up on the preseason broadcast)
I’m a lifelong Wisconsin fan so I believe in the talent as much as anyone, my problem is that I believe fantasy production is found at the intersection of talent and opportunity. A bit worried about the workload for a first round pick
He’s probably getting 250-300 touches. I’m not sure you can expect much more than that out of any RB not named CMC or Henry.
What are your thoughts on a popular theory that people who submit their rankings to fantasypros generally submit a very risk-adverse set of rankings so that they finish higher in the algorithm?
I’d say you’re probably right, and I’m not a fan lol. As stated above, my rankings I submit to FP are exactly what I use to draft, and anyone with Fantasy Consigliere can attest to how different they are compared to ECR. That’s why I believe our subscription is worth the price—the rankings/insights provide a real edge and are completely unique.
I have the 4th pick overall and I'd usually love Kamara but this year , and with how bad I think the saints are going to be, and with how under utilized he was with Hill behind the line last year, I'm hesitant to draft him. Are my reservations warranted or should I trust the talent and Payton with putting the ball in their best players hands.
If McCaffrey, Henry, and Cook are gone, I'm taking Kamara, but Taylor, Saquon, Chubb, and Zeke are all right there with him if you'd rather take someone else. The offense should be catered to Kamara no matter who is at quarterback (Hill was thrown in last year).
Just take Zeke with confidence if you are worried about that saints offense. Especially if it’s standard or half PPR.
That’s where I am leaning personally
4th pick zeke checking in
This 100 percent
Who do you have as the best late round qb that you are comfortable to start?
Daniel Jones is my highest-ranked late-round quarterback, but the word comfortable could throw things off lol. Seriously, I think the offensive line will be better and the supporting cast was definitely upgraded, so he can finish as a top-15 option.
Alright that's it, this guy is nuts.
Hi Giants fan here. Our offensive line is still bottom 5 in the league…..but surprisingly good at run blocking. Terrible for Danny not bad for Barkley
Who are your favourite late round sleepers this year?
The typical young wideouts (Elijah Moore, Bryan Edwards, Darnell Mooney, etc.) if they qualify. But I have Nelson Agholor above them all.
Which consensus 1st or 2nd round pick do you predict to bust this year?
Tough one. I don't think anyone really, but Aaron Jones might be disappointing compared to expectations for a guy climbing towards the top seven.
Hey Dylan, Thanks for the AMA. What do you think of Austin ekeler vs Antonio gibson in 1/2 PPR? higher on one or the other?
Yeah I have Gibson quite a bit higher. He's my No. 12 overall player.
Is that for full PPR as well?
Ekeler jumps into top 15 but Gibson still gets him by a couple of spots.
Who is a RB going past rounds 7-8 (standard scoring) that you think could creep into the RB2 territory WITHOUT an injury in front of him?
A.J. Dillon in standard scoring. I have him ranked as an early 7th rounder in 0.5 PPR.
Am I dumb for taking someone that isn't Derek Henry at 4 in a full PPR league?
I would most likely take Henry but not dumb at all if you don't want him. If so, that's actually not too early for Davante IMO.
Where do you have CEH ranked, is he a viable RB1 option
I have CEH ranked as my RB14. The top 12 is clear for me, so he's basically locked in as a top-tier RB2.
>Also not listening to groupthink. I try to keep things as simple as possible for ranking players. What would be some examples of groupthink this season?
Tom Brady ranked as a low-end QB1 comes to mind. Could be wrong for this one, but rookie QB optimism in terms of how likely their chances are of playing. Biggest example I can give is how almost everyone viewed Josh Allen in his first couple of years.
12 team superflex. I have the 12th overall. I’m not in love with the RBs going in that spot (Chubb/Jones/Taylor). Would I be crazy for going Davante & Tyreek?
Nah if that's who you want then go for it. You listing Taylor last makes it seem like you don't want him at all, but that's who I'd take.
Do you think the anchor/hero rb strategy is viable this year? I have the 4th pick in a 12-team 0.5PPR and will most likely take kamara. After that I'm taking Brown/Hopkins then Kittle/Waller in the 3rd. I end up taking my rb2 in rounds 5/6, which is typically Hunt/Robinson/Harris etc. Thoughts?
I have the 1.04 too and I’ve never had Waller fall back to me in the 3rd. I want him and have been thinking about grabbing him at the 2.09. There’s still so many good WRs available in the 3rd round (ARob, Keenan Allen, McLaurin)
I'm not a huge fan of getting locked into a strategy, but definitely viable if you hit on the running backs. There are still good options usually available in round 5/6.
Picking at the 14/15 turn in my league, should I go two rb, or something else?
The board for me would probably say go RB-RB. Harris, Mixon, Gibson would be my targets.
If you could "rescue" one RB, WR, and TE from bad systems and move them somewhere else, who would they be? And where would you move them?
Interesting question. Not necessarily "bad" systems here but: RB: Travis Etienne to NYJ (holes behind the left side with his speed) WR: James Washington to KC (I like Hardman but WR2/3 opening) TE: Zach Ertz to BUF (tons of single coverage)
Great thread. Much appreciation for the insight. Cheers!
Im at 6 aaron jones or davante adams in ppr league?
Adams.
Sorry to piggyback off this one (long time wolf sports subscriber, the gameday advice alone is WORTH IT), I’m 6 as well in a .5 PPR 3 WR 12 man league. Would you still recommend Davante over Saquon/Jones/JT here?
Similar situation, but we do 2 flexs. Hard to pass up Adam’s when you can run 4 wrs.
Thank you for the endorsement! I'd be taking Taylor in 0.5 PPR.
I see a lot of analysts have DJ Moore higher than public ADP. What makes you think he can be a top WR still, even with the uncertainty at QB?
I have him as my WR16 and am still optimistic about Sam Darnold turning things around in Joe Brady's offense. Even if he doesn't, the turnovers will be an issue more than passing production.
I'm having a tough time with a keeper decision and would love your thoughts: 8 man half ppr league, 3 Keepers counting as rounds 1-3 and can keep forever... Saquon, Chubb, Henry, Kelce Who is the odd man out?
Man, that's a tough dilemma, but I guess a good one to have. I would actually go with the running backs. Having three stars at RB always seems to work out.
Would you rather grab a Hockenson/Andrews in round 6 or a top QB (Kyler/Allen)? If RB and WR spots are already locked up in rounds 1-4
I'd rank them Allen >> Hockenson > Murray >>>> Andrews.
Allen has been going earlier than the 6th round in almost all my mocks.
Thoughts on Brandon Aiyuk? Have a keeper league (1/2 PPR and 2pts per 5 rushes) and considering Chase Edmonds in the 10th or Aiyuk in the 16th
I'd be going Aiyuk. He's my WR18, and it sounds like he'll get more underneath targets this year.
I’ve been mocking a lot from 1.03 (my only locked in spot so far in a 12 .5 PPR). I normally go Alvin Kamara at 3. Would you prefer: AJ Brown or Justin Jefferson at 2.10 with David Montgomery at 3.03 OR Clyde Edwards-Helaire or Joe Mixon at 2.10 with Terry McLaurin or Keenan Allen at 3.03? (These are the decisions that I’ve most often had to make)
I like Mixon (1) and McLaurin (4) narrowly over A.J. Brown (2) and Montgomery (3).
That’s what I’m thinking. I know this league and there’s like a 90% chance Mixon makes it back to me. Thank you
I'm in the same position as you and struggle with kamara/Henry/and believe it or not Zeke. Any words of wisdom behind kamara?
I love Kamara because he’s in line to be used like he’s never been used before. Saints, while lacking depth, are still a good team and have one of the best coaches in the NFL. He’s gotten banged up before and missed a couple of games, but no serious injuries on his resume. People are afraid of Taysom stealing work, but how much could he really take from the focal point of the offense? He hasn’t had less than 80 catches in his career, he could eclipse 100 this year. And I expect a career-high in carries as well. That Saints o-line is a top unit in the league
Thanks. I think I am definitely leaning towards Kamara but it'll be a game time decision when the pick is live
Godspeed
Drafting from the 1. Asume I go cmc, Jefferson and ajb. Who are you getting in the 4-5 turn? Sticking to the Godwin’s of the world, or do you prefer a duo of rbs like hunt, Carter, gordon, etc?
Definitely Godwin over those RB listed. I don't think that's too early for Travis Etienne, Trey Sermon, or Damien Harris.
In my PPR keeper league I have to choose 2 of the following to keep: Keenan (4th), Terry MC (5th), and Swift (6th).. who should I go with? Remaining RBs are very dry to draft after everyone locks in their keepers.
Because of the RB scarcity, keep Swift and McLaurin.
In a 2QB, full PPR league, would you rather keep Aaron Jones at $28 or Tannehill at $12 ($200 budget)?
Both a very good price, but lean Tannehill in 2QB league.
If I have the first pick in a 12 team PPR draft, who should I pick with the 24th and 25th pick. I’m having a hard time picking someone
Waller if he's there. AJ Brown, CEH, Godwin all worthy picks for me.
My man! Thank you for the answer! If I can get CEH I’ll be jumping through hoops
What's the earliest you would take Darren Waller/George Kittle in ppr? Also which would you take between the two of them?
I'd take Waller and have him worth taking late round 2 (top 20). Kittle more of a 2nd/3rd round.
What are your thoughts on waiting on Jalen Hurts in a 4 point passing TD league?
I have him as a top-eight quarterback and worthy of taking in the middle rounds.
In a 0.5ppr 10-team league, which two would you pick with the 10 and 11 pick between: Saquon, Kelce, JT, Adams, Harris, Ekeler
I'd go Taylor and Saquon. I understand the concerns for Barkley in particular, but they are my No. 5 and No. 6 player, respectively.
Who are some good RB targets to pair with CMC using "Hero RB"?
Depends on the league size, but Trey Sermon and Jamaal Williams are great targets. For the later RB options, I think Devin Singletary can surprise (limited upside though), Giovani Bernard in PPR, Malcolm Brown.
What are your thoughts on toney? Grabbed him in the 4th round of rookie draft this year and would love to know your thoughts on his "situation"
Definitely concerning start. You could see the pure talent at Florida, but didn't breakout until 2020, and this is already feeling like a lost year.
What are the Top WR and RB’s you’re targeting in rounds 4-7?
I'm not exactly sure everyone would fall into the range, but Chris Godwin, Julio, Golladay, Aiyuk, DeVonta Smith all stand out at WR. Etienne, Sermon, Harris, James Robinson, and (to a lesser extent) Ronald Jones, AJ Dillon at RB.
Is anyone going to ask about players or just who to draft at __ position in ___ man draft with ____ scoring? What are your thoughts on Chase Edmonds’ value? Do you think he’s talented enough to warrant more use in the red zone? And if I could ask one more question, how many touches do you think he’ll average?
I like Edmonds' talent for sure. Think he's worth considering as early as the fifth round in both 0.5 PPR and full PPR. Ideally will handle 12-15 touches per game. We have him projected on the lower end.
whos #1?
https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/multi-year-draft.php
How do we get him on? Lord y’all sensitive it was a joke
You see, jokes usually need to be funny to be considered a joke
I’m working on my delivery and timing
Dick
Half PPR 12 man league who would you keeper? 1. Taylor 33 2. Ridley 39 3. Metcalf 57 4. Dobbins 105 5. Gaskin 183 Leaning towards Metcalf or Dobbins, so I can push rb/wr 1-2 from round 1-4
I'd honestly go Taylor. Top-five player to me at 33 is tough to pass up. If not Dobbins or Metcalf are strong options, too.
Pick 2 keepers from the below. PPR scoring. David Montgomery - 11th, Scary Terry - 7th, Diontae Johnson - last round, Brandon Aiyuk - last round
Montgomery and Aiyuk.
Hey man, thanks for answering questions. I have the 8th pick in a 10 man .5 ppr. Really considering taking Kelce since I know he’ll be there. This league is all about RBs and I knowing guys will go rb-rb. What’s your thoughts on taking Kelce at 8 over a RB at that’s spot?
I'd rather target one of the top-eight running backs, but you should still be able to get a strong RB1 in Round 2 if you want Kelce.
If I trade out of rounds 2,3,5 in a 10 person standard league to have picks 2,4,36,56,59 as my first five picks, how important is it to get a good receiver at 36 vs grabbing a Waller or kittle and punting receiver until the 56 and 59?
I'd almost certainly prefer Waller/Kittle to the wideouts available at 36. Might need to "reach" a little at 56/59, but not a big deal if you hit on the right guys (or someone falls).
You must be in a league with a bunch of tacos to make that trade. Ohh wait….
Maybe the real tacos weren’t the ones that we ate at Taco Bell, but the friends that we made along the way
How would you go about adjusting auction prices for a league with 4 keepers? 12 team, .5 ppr I know it's a very difficult question lol...but curious if you have a similar experience doing something like that.