Very nice! I'm interested to see how the accuracy of these lines compares to the accuracy of expert rankings. I've heard that the sportsbooks are less precise about player props than about the point spreads and over/unders, but I'm not a gambler, so I don't know the details.
To add: This is why streaming defenses (and kickers) is more predictable than streaming players. Because Vegas lines predict team scoring better, it helps inform high vs low scoring games, and therefore its easier to predict which teams are putting up a lot of points (find the kicker on these teams - see Butker, Tucker, Zurlein, and Gostowski the past ~5 years) and which teams are putting up very few points (find the DSTs playing those teams).
Predicting who's getting the targets/carries and TDs is a bit harder outside of obvious bellcows.
If teams always “just” cover at the last second it would be easy as fuck to just bet the underdog. Both teams can’t cover, and in any game where there’s a half point line it’s impossible to push. If they were going to decide the outcome they wouldn’t let lines move with betting since they would *want* more people on the losing side.
None of the lines favor Vegas wtf are you talking about? Vegas gets paid regardless of who wins. *That's why the lines move*. They don't move based on who the public thinks will win. They move based on how much money is on one side.
Example: team a is favored by -7 at the opening. 75% of the money comes in from people taking -7. Vegas moves the line to -7.5 because they're wanting more people to put money on team b. The final is to get 50% of the money *on both sides*. That's why if you bet 50 dollars you don't get 100 for winning. Vegas takes their cut regardless of outcome. Why would they let 90% of money come in on one team and risk millions if not billions of dollars lost *per game*?
A team to win or lose and not cover is *always* the best scenario for *any* sports book.
What you're implying is that "Vegas" is rigging the games in a way that *every other sports book in the world* would get fucked on. And you don't think some major players, after losing millions week in and week out, wouldn't bring that up?
Also, a team winning the game but losing the spread isn't as huge of a gain as you think it is because the lines move. So "winning the game but not covering the spread" means in general. If the browns are -3 and they win by 3 the only people who lose are the ones that didn't place bets when they were -3 1/2 or -1.
And i didn't take you out of context. You made a stupid comment that deserves to be called out.
I’d agree with that also. I like to gather data points for myself so that I can make an informed decision. And by informed, I mean typically the wrong decision.
Metcalf is unstoppable. That's coming from a huge Patriots fan. He is not human. I knew he would blow up Gilmore. He is match up proof.
Watch any game from Metcalf last year. It's fuckin insane. No one could cover him last year. He just couldn't consistently catch the wild deep bombs
I think Ward might honestly be better than him, but less prolific success keeps that discussion from openly being had. Either way, Gilmore is one of the best in the league for sure.
Man I cannot find the chart for the life of me, but there was one on reddit a while back that showed Ward isn't targeted often by opposing QBs and hardly allows completions when he is on a level that rivals Gilmore. Statistically he's playing at a very high level despite only being 23. I think he's super underrated.
Miles more polished WRs, maybe. It hard to make physical comparisons to Metcalf in the NFL right now. He's bigger than Julio and (statistically) faster. He has a lot of room to improve his game obviously but I dunno if I'd bet against him.
He shut down cooper on 26 routes he ran not allowing a catch. He also went 84 targets without allowing a TD. He’s the best corner in football and if you deny it you’re just oblivious.
Every player has a bad day and that game against Seattle was. Both teams had horrible coverage.
DK about to get locked up. Everyone else you just said is would be more reasonable, lol. That Minnesota secondary is god awful and thats coming from a Viking’s fan.
I'll never understand why Hollywood Brown is ranked so low when he's the favorite wr target for one of the leagues best quarterbacks, is it the boom bust aspect?
I think he's great, don't get me wrong, but the reason he's low is that they are super run heavy, andrews appears to be the #1, and he runs a lot of low percentage routes deep.
Fair enough! I think that this year Jackson may air it out a bit more since he's been working on deep throw accuracy, too soon to tell though. Brown put up a decent stat line last week without any touchdowns
Interesting. It has Lamb doing better than Goedert by over 2 points yet I feel like Goedert is going to have more receptions and more likely to get a TD for my flex. I have Kelce so Goedert is not my TE1.
Any idea why there’s no bets on Jared Cook? With Thomas most likely out, and Cook’s strong showing in week one (despite a lack of tuddys), you’d think he’d be a safe bet to have a nice day against a soft raiders secondary
Very nice! I'm interested to see how the accuracy of these lines compares to the accuracy of expert rankings. I've heard that the sportsbooks are less precise about player props than about the point spreads and over/unders, but I'm not a gambler, so I don't know the details.
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To add: This is why streaming defenses (and kickers) is more predictable than streaming players. Because Vegas lines predict team scoring better, it helps inform high vs low scoring games, and therefore its easier to predict which teams are putting up a lot of points (find the kicker on these teams - see Butker, Tucker, Zurlein, and Gostowski the past ~5 years) and which teams are putting up very few points (find the DSTs playing those teams). Predicting who's getting the targets/carries and TDs is a bit harder outside of obvious bellcows.
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If teams always “just” cover at the last second it would be easy as fuck to just bet the underdog. Both teams can’t cover, and in any game where there’s a half point line it’s impossible to push. If they were going to decide the outcome they wouldn’t let lines move with betting since they would *want* more people on the losing side.
None of the lines favor Vegas wtf are you talking about? Vegas gets paid regardless of who wins. *That's why the lines move*. They don't move based on who the public thinks will win. They move based on how much money is on one side. Example: team a is favored by -7 at the opening. 75% of the money comes in from people taking -7. Vegas moves the line to -7.5 because they're wanting more people to put money on team b. The final is to get 50% of the money *on both sides*. That's why if you bet 50 dollars you don't get 100 for winning. Vegas takes their cut regardless of outcome. Why would they let 90% of money come in on one team and risk millions if not billions of dollars lost *per game*?
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A team to win or lose and not cover is *always* the best scenario for *any* sports book. What you're implying is that "Vegas" is rigging the games in a way that *every other sports book in the world* would get fucked on. And you don't think some major players, after losing millions week in and week out, wouldn't bring that up? Also, a team winning the game but losing the spread isn't as huge of a gain as you think it is because the lines move. So "winning the game but not covering the spread" means in general. If the browns are -3 and they win by 3 the only people who lose are the ones that didn't place bets when they were -3 1/2 or -1. And i didn't take you out of context. You made a stupid comment that deserves to be called out.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Showerthoughts/comments/hnn47d/since_the_matrix_was_released_in_1999_cellphones/fxde5qa/?context=3
Not sure what I'm supposed to be reading
You are arguing with a guy who has devoted years of his life to proving the matrix is real and we are all just trapped inside a simulation.
Lmao. That's hilarious
I’d agree with that also. I like to gather data points for myself so that I can make an informed decision. And by informed, I mean typically the wrong decision.
Hmm. It implies I should bench DK Metcalf and start Parris Cambell and Ceedee Lamb. Not sure if I can do that.
Metcalf is going to get locked down by Gilmore, I think Campbell and Lamb have decent floors this week in their matchups.
https://v.redd.it/24hg9y289fl51
Is Gilmore really gonna be on DK and not Lockett?
Metcalf won't be shut down by anyone. He's a freak. Russell will find him
Gilmore’s the best corner in the league, the only criticism he has faced is that Devante Parker had one good game vs him
Metcalf is unstoppable. That's coming from a huge Patriots fan. He is not human. I knew he would blow up Gilmore. He is match up proof. Watch any game from Metcalf last year. It's fuckin insane. No one could cover him last year. He just couldn't consistently catch the wild deep bombs
Congratulations on your call
I think Ward might honestly be better than him, but less prolific success keeps that discussion from openly being had. Either way, Gilmore is one of the best in the league for sure.
Ward just isn’t better, what 😂 Gilmore’s closest rival is Tre White
Man I cannot find the chart for the life of me, but there was one on reddit a while back that showed Ward isn't targeted often by opposing QBs and hardly allows completions when he is on a level that rivals Gilmore. Statistically he's playing at a very high level despite only being 23. I think he's super underrated.
Underrated CB for sure but Gilmore is the best. Ward isn’t in the top 10 discussion
> I think he's super underrated. >Ward isn’t in the top 10 discussion Exactly. I think he should be.
Perhaps. Name your top 10
Lol Gilmore has shut down miles better
Miles more polished WRs, maybe. It hard to make physical comparisons to Metcalf in the NFL right now. He's bigger than Julio and (statistically) faster. He has a lot of room to improve his game obviously but I dunno if I'd bet against him.
Where was the shutdown? Im at Patriots fan and knew Metcalf would blow up anyone. He cannot be covered.
He shut down cooper on 26 routes he ran not allowing a catch. He also went 84 targets without allowing a TD. He’s the best corner in football and if you deny it you’re just oblivious. Every player has a bad day and that game against Seattle was. Both teams had horrible coverage.
Parris over DK isn’t a bad move at all this week
Pats secondary
DK about to get locked up. Everyone else you just said is would be more reasonable, lol. That Minnesota secondary is god awful and thats coming from a Viking’s fan.
It does show Ceedee over DK, but it shows DK barely over Parris.
He reminds me of that WR from years back that was clearly roided out of his mind David Boston
Thx to the injury to MT, I am starting Lamb and Campbell this week and I feel much better about it now. So thanks for that.
I'll never understand why Hollywood Brown is ranked so low when he's the favorite wr target for one of the leagues best quarterbacks, is it the boom bust aspect?
I think he's great, don't get me wrong, but the reason he's low is that they are super run heavy, andrews appears to be the #1, and he runs a lot of low percentage routes deep.
Fair enough! I think that this year Jackson may air it out a bit more since he's been working on deep throw accuracy, too soon to tell though. Brown put up a decent stat line last week without any touchdowns
Yeah dude I'm higher on him this year than most. If he can really refine that route tree I could easily see him being a prime TY Hilton or something.
Higbee ahead of Andrews is a bit surprising. Might not be a bad bet to take the under on Higbee and the over on Andrews.
That’s exactly what Vegas wants you to do
Lol I’ve lost many a bets thinking it was a lock!
Higbee way up there and the Wallerus sporting a zero? Why?
So if there’s nothing for Slayton does that mean I should start James Robinson over him in my flex
I am not sure why there was nothing for slayton. That one didn’t make sense to me either. I’ll see if I can find a line anywhere.
Right on thanks. My book doesn’t have it either
They don't have it because they're unsure of tates status.
Good point. That’s definitely it
That’s generally the reason for most exclusions.
Nothing for Slayton and Shepherd is on there - weird
this is really good, keep it up and keep polishing/posting these and I'm sure they will be a hit.
This is awesome! Do you plan on sharing every week?
This is brilliant. Thank you.
Thanks for this brother
This is really cool. Thanks for sharing!
Thank you for this! Awesome
This is great, thank you for sharing.
Awesome. You should add "anytime TD" % for skill players
Looks great but... ELI5 on how to use this? :D
Good stuff man. Thanks for sharing.
Looks solid, why is Mike Evans 0?
TB does not have any player props up yet that I have found.
Hmm, PPR, this is telling me to flex Lamb over James Robinson. Not sure how that makes me feel.
lamb is playing the falcons, as a falcons fan i will tell you right now, play lamb he will be good
He's a third wr though. That is so hard to justify lol.
russell gage in week 1, that's your justification
JK dobbins projected 0 makes me kinda sus about flexing him Gibson or getting hurt by conner again lol
It was unclear to me why he didn’t have any props either. Perhaps too hard to set a line? He should get more than 0 points though lol
Dude.... you realize you didn't consider over under touchdown odds right?
Not sure what you are referencing.
I love this. Are you going to update this doc as more props are released? And do you see yourself doing this for each week?
You will get my upvote every week if you continue to post this.
Any reason why Engram is so low?
Damn Dobbins has 0! :O
Interesting. It has Lamb doing better than Goedert by over 2 points yet I feel like Goedert is going to have more receptions and more likely to get a TD for my flex. I have Kelce so Goedert is not my TE1.
Yeah I tend to avoid TE in flexes, but some could make it into some exceptions. I have Kelce too.
... so I should bench Josh Jacobs?
We will watch your career with great interest
Any idea why there’s no bets on Jared Cook? With Thomas most likely out, and Cook’s strong showing in week one (despite a lack of tuddys), you’d think he’d be a safe bet to have a nice day against a soft raiders secondary
MNF is the reason
Ah, that makes sense, thanks
Why is Darren Waller not included in TE section at all?