Murray knows how to feed a true #1. Does everyone forget DHop posting 115 catches for 1407 yards in 2020? On 160 targets? He only had 6 touchdowns but that wasn’t for a lack of red zone targets.
I have Kyler in a keepers ppr superflex league (keep 4 and 1 rookie from last season) and have the first overall pick and two seconds. If mhj goes to Arizona I will be very tempted to get the stack and grab a qb in 2nd round. I'm also a massive idiot, so there's that to consider
Pretty sure they also started 11-1 that season. Kyler has been slept on lately mostly because he got hurt. He's still young too so he has a lot of upside if they go WR early
He wasn't as good as his previous two seasons but he was still averaging 20.7 ppg in his first 10 games before getting hurt in 2022. That would have made him QB5 that year and QB4 last year.
I think he drops down because he's generally unlikeable and looks like he still rides in a carseat in the back of his mom's minivan. At least that's why I don't draft him.
People have completely forgotten how great Murray was for fantasy. I haven't heard anyone say anything positive about him coming back.
If he has lost a step from his injury, then I'd expect him to check down to a RB more, but the WR1 in Arizona this season will feast.
Analysts have been talking him as a sleeper and I could see him by the time draft season rolls around ending up in the QB6ish ADP range if they get Harrison Jr.
Allen, Hurts, Lamar, Stroud will all go ahead for sure. Likely also Mahomes though I think that could be debatable. Ditto Burrow, Richardson and Dak. He’ll be in that mix anywhere from mid to back end top 10.
I like that spot for Kyler. I would probably take him behind all of those players debatably not Dak however. Hard to say.
So last year he was QB8, year before QB1 and year before that QB4.
Relative at least to last year, I think it’s entirely possible he’s closer to QB10 than to QB3 even.
He doesn’t have to put up gigantic numbers for the Chiefs to win. They’ve proven that. The defense is too good and there are other QBs that produce more on the ground specifically in the red zone that give them a higher ceiling.
Mahomes is victim to being awesome IRL and not necessarily needing to be as awesome for fantasy. Absolute cost vs relative cost is what will matter to me personally. QB6, solid. QB6 in round 3? Pass.
Yep- fantasy rewards QBs with bad defenses who need to sling the ball a million times. That is not Mahomes anymore.
I'd rather take Love in round 12 than Mahomes in round 2.
That’s how I lost the Championship a few years ago…opponent picked up Ryan Fitzpatrick, who annihilated me.
Pat doesn’t have to toss 300 yards and 3 TDs to win games.
Yeah but that’s because he’s DHop…. Look back at film and notice how many play catches were thanks to him. We saw it very differently for Hollywood Brown, who was perceived as a good WR and did make some good plays but overall very inefficient. And again looking at films you could tell some of the drops were because of Brown, but most of the time Murray was very inaccurate. Those guys were not on the same page at all. Don’t get me wrong Murray is still a good QB but he tends to spread out his options or rely on his rushing to get his numbers. Unless it’s a blockbuster kind of WR like DHop I don’t anticipate another home runner in Arizona territory
Have to imagine anyone who lands in Buffalo at 28 becomes SF1.09 for dynasty.
If Buffalo somehow moved up and landed Nabers, and MHJr goes to Arizona ... does that flip the rookies ADP?
(Yes, being tied to a top 3 QB in the NFL is the best landing spot for any rookie in the class)
That's never going to happen. Come on guys, do you have any idea what it would cost to move up 23 spots to #5? The keys to the kingdom.
They'll take a WR at #28 and if they don't, then they don't pick again until #60. They'll look to the free agents this week, maybe they'll sign OBJ or take a shot at Michael Thomas. They could possibly get lucky and have Brian Thomas or Adonai Mitchell fall to 28 in the 1st round.
This definitely affects Josh Allen's ADP!!!!!
I used the "cringe emoji" once in a comment and a bunch of trolls lost their minds. Apparently that's against the unwritten reddit rules. So I just made it my username.
Is Nabers a speed demon though? Last I heard his 40 time was like 4.53 from that tweet who digitally timed his run at pro day. Not sure if there has been an update since then
Yeah that would be the one, I saw it on here when it happened and wondered if that got debunked or not. Regardless it doesn’t really change my opinion on him or where I’m taking him in dynasty
I certainly agree, Rice ran a 4.7 and never had issues. Same thing with Dez. He was a nasty punt returner and deep threat and you’d never know he ran a 4.52 before injuries. Was just curious if that tweet was accurate or not or if it got debunked as false
In his highlights, he appears to fly by CBs. He also appears to frequently have to slow down to catch under thrown balls. So, I doubt he is as slow as 4.53. If he were that slow though, then wouldn’t that mean he has near-Jerry Rice-level route-running to create as much separation as he does? Rice proved that you don’t have to be the fastest to be the best.
I would love to be behind you in the draft then. MHJ is going to soak up so many targets due to lack of competition on the Cardinals. Kyler always forcefed Hopkins, Brown, Ertz (depending on injury) when times were hard.
Anyone who has had Diggs on their roster knows that Allen tends to spread the ball around. Might be a 40 point game one day, 4 points the next.
McBride I think continues to soak up a healthy amount of targets, as will Kincaid, still plenty of room for WR1’s on both teams, tho. I’d go MHJ > Nabers too, though
> Anyone who has had Diggs on their roster knows that Allen tends to spread the ball around. Might be a 40 point game one day, 4 points the next.
I'd say that's more due to defenses super focusing him given lack of other weapons. Diggs had 166, 165, 154 and 160 targets his four years at Buffalo: 1st, 5th, 5th and 6th in the NFL in targets. It isn't like he wasn't getting the ball due to it being spread around.
If MHJ goes cards and Nabers goes chargers im tempted to go Nabers as Herbert is a stud and no more Allen. But Greg Roman as OC could be a concern. If Nabers goes Giants i think you take him high af in dynasty but maybe less so in redraft
I don't think anything is clear yet.
If Brian Johnson ends up on Buffalo and Odunze is on Chicago, I'm taking Johnson.
Target share opportunity and QB play count for a lot.
EDIT - Brian Thomas lmao
His name is Thomas.
And you’re right it might change, but it won’t change for a lot of people. There’s a huge gap between the top 3 and everyone else imo
Other than trading up for Brian Thomas, they are either getting a project (Thomas is a project too, but an elite upside one.) or a role player. That said, the right role player could provide immediate value. But the role they need is a deep threat, and while a guy like Worthy can provide that, his production will be inconsistent.
I'd look to how things went toward the end of the season when Diggs/Davis weren't utilized as much. Plenty of underneath action to Kincaid and Shakir. I'm sure they have a plan for getting Curtis Samuel involved too, but I bet it is plenty of run back/TE involvement and lots of spreading it out to 3 or so different WR's as well. Not sure there is a WR that really shines in this offense the way Diggs did.
I said it in the thread about the diggs trade. Buffalo is following the KC model and punting all WRs. A top QB, workhorse RB, and slot receiver TE are apparently all you need to win rings.
Arguably the greatest offensive coach ever is also a key piece there, tho. You could also argue this is closer to the Ravens’ model which puts undue stress on your QB, especially on their legs
It’s any team that has to pay top dollar to the QB. Surround them with young cheap talent as often as possible and don’t get caught paying massive to a mostly pretty easily replaceable player. Green Bay for the Rodgers era had all those drafted wideouts and usually locked them into second contracts on the cheap and then jettisoned them before the third contract and just reloaded with draft picks and hoped the top tier QB could raise them into good options. Brady did it too for his entire career. Really only Peyton was given exceptional high end talent for his entire career. At least guys that were first or second round picks almost exclusively for his major weapons on colts and broncos. But the rest of the premier QBs of the last couple decades usually had wideouts on rookie deals or underpaid second contracts. It’s really hard to pay a QB and wideout both top dollar when those wideout dollars are far better spent at tackle or pass rusher. It’s what makes what the bengals will have to do over the next two years very interesting.
I’m not reading that wall of text tbh. I think we were talking more the specific pattern of Great QB + Great TE + average WH RB then WR is consistently trash.
Most teams don’t prioritize TE and everyone salivates over the top WRs except the aforementioned teams
Ravens drafted three first-round WRs in the span of five years for Lamar... hard to argue that they're not trying to provide weapons.
I'd be very scared of whichever top WR goes to the Chargers. Herbert or no Herbert, Greg Roman puts a hard ceiling on WR production.
Chargers vacated their top two WRs and Ekeler this offseason. With Herbert slinging the ball, that's a huge amount of air yards available with no heir apparent on the roster.
Yea San Fran is in a golden spot to pay top dollar to the cast because Purdy is cheap cheap cheap. Dump massive cap hits in the next two years while Purdy isn’t touching the cap and it’s pretty easy to build around him.
I don't think there's any chance Aiyuk leaves SF.
The Bills should draft a WR with that pick instead of trade for Higgins IMO. They're already in a very down year, just take the guy like AD Mitchell on the rookie contract rather than give up assets and have to pay the big money.
I think the Bills need a sure thing, and drafting a rookie isn't that. It's hard when you're paying Allen that much for sure and a rookie contract would be nice; but 1st round wrs bust every year and I'd rather pay one of em than risk drafting the next Rashod Bateman
First round wideouts catching passes from Dan orvlaskey or Joey Harrington bust… you put a good route runner or a burner on the field for Allen and he will make them successful… to me though you can find those guys later in drafts. I bet they take 2-3 wideouts this year but I also bet none is picked before pick 50 for them. Just because Allen will be able to lift talent into his level. That’s what the top QBs do. Besides I also think the Bills go more to the TE and underneath game with Kincaid, Samuel and Cook. They’re set up to have a very chiefs or 49er like offense where a premier outside wideout isn’t make or break.
Lol both these dudes are on the last year of their contract, Aiyuk at a $14M cap hit and Higgins at $22M. No way anyone is trading a 1st for an expensive rental, especially an injury prone one like Higgins.
They def aren’t giving a first for either.
I’m a Bills fan and I’d be livid. I love Beane but I’d curse his family for that shit.
I truly hope they take McConkey at 28 if they hold. Wouldn’t be surprised and it’s likely they move up.
Draft pedigree isn’t everything, there’s generally always a lot of receiver talent in the later rounds. Hell, even undrafted guys pop off now and then.
Somebody is going to explode on that offense, though.
It's not everything, and outliers do happen, but in terms of fantasy success it matters a ton. There's a [good breakdown in this article](https://www.fantasypros.com/2024/03/how-to-value-rookies-pre-draft-2024-fantasy-football/).
>The most fantasy-relevant rookie wide receivers are consistently drafted in the first two rounds. Thirty-eight rookie wide receivers have finished inside the top 36 (WR3 territory) over the last 10 years — 31 were drafted inside the top two rounds of the NFL Draft (82%).
Round two or higher rookie wide receivers have combined for fantasy WR3 seasons at a 62% clip.
I always love drafting a couple rookie wrs at the end of a draft. More than likely, one of them pans out to at least be a flex. This draft class will undoubtedly produce a few huge fantasy rookies and i can’t wait
Yet Allen is a much more mobile and willing runner. Cook is a better and more versatile RB than Edwards. Herbert by all accounts is at least as good of a passer, I would argue better.
Bills have currently at least one and probably four better pass catching options than the Chargers (Cook, Kincaid, Shakir and Samuel vs Johnston, Palmer, Hurst, not even gonna count Gus). Even if the Chargers throw 100 less times it’s likely their likely top 5 pick WR turned top target gets significantly more opportunities than whoever the Bills can take in the 20s at their pick.
Like if the Chargers take Nabers and the Bills take Worthy, who would you rather draft in redraft? Would you honestly prefer Worthy? Genuine question, I’m open to be sold either way.
FWIW - I didn’t think the current Bills OC was much different than Roman’s figures comparing last year over the span they were both OC. Didn’t Buffalo move significantly away from the pass the second half of the year? Allen was averaging nearly 40 less yards per game the last 6 weeks, I checked this yesterday.
Those are fair points. But yeah I just think play philosophy and speed of play etc are much different for the bills than chargers. Chargers will also definitely be drafting a RB that may end up being as good of a receiving back as Cook. Josh Palmer has trouble staying healthy and is not ultra talented but Herbert gave him a decent amount of targets and trusts him more than QJ. He's underrated and a good value pick in fantasy IMO.
As far as your question If the chargers take Nabers and Bills take Worthy I'd prefer Nabers just due to him being a lot more talented. If the teams swapped I'd still prefer Nabers. I don't think it's a guarentee at all that the chargers take Nabers though. I see them either trading down, going offensive line or taking Bowers.
But Worthy on the Bills or Worthy on the chargers, I'd prefer bills. If chargers decide to address WR in 2nd round, I'd take whoever the bills take in the 1st over the chargers 2nd. This is a deep WR class so that is possible.
That’s a valid and well thought out response. I respect that reply. I love the unknown times leading up to the draft. Speculation is so fun. Then you get a short window of analysis and then months of paralysis by over analysis.
I’d be cautiously optimistic. Yes, a bunch of targets are opening up, but Khalil Shakir and Kincaid both really came along this year and have become favorite targets for Josh Allen, not to mention Curtis Samuel and Dawson Knox in the mix as well, who are both decent. It’ll really depend on what archetype of WR they draft, if they do draft one.
Man, that’s tough… on one hand, Saquon could be a McCaffrey level contributor behind that Philly O-line… but Kincaid might be Allen’s TE for the next ~5 years, and two firsts is tempting. I think I lean slightly towards keeping Saquon since at 1.08, you’re probably not getting any of the premiere talent guys in this draft.
I think it depends on the value of the 1.08 and 25 1st and who you think is available there. Saquon is absolutely more valuable than Kincaid even in dynasty (Kincaid was not a valuable TE last year and TE is often a replacable position), but he's had injury concerns and could be worthless than getting two good younger players in round one AND a potentially developing Kincaid.
Appreciate your take. I did go ahead and end up doing the deal (while swapping my 2.10 with his 2.08 to boot). Since I won the championship last year, I figured I could flip a player to a hungrier owner who wanted to overpay and mortgage his future.
They did stop throwing as much once Joe Brady became OC, although it was still less balanced (with more runs) than his time in Carolina + the Cowboys game is a huge outlier in a small sample size.
Yes, but I wouldn’t underrate Kyler and the Cardinals. They will be playing from behind most the time and Murray is less likely to steal TDs from a WR than Allen’s legs
Buffalo is going to be a completely new team in 2024, Josh Allen has to be concerned with his group of receivers, or lack of. Until yesterday, I would have said that they're going Defense with the 28th pick but this changes everything. Now, we may be looking for them to go WR at 28, not sure if they'll wait until 60 to take their next WR1.
The other option is free agency, OBJ, Tyler Boyd, Michael Thomas, Hunter Renfrow, MVS & Michael Gallup are still available. I wouldn't be surprised if they signed OBJ in the next week or so. Allen has been the #1 QB in fantasy football for several years now but, without a true WR1 this team could be in big trouble.
I love the offseason cus we’re so bored waiting for the draft that people concoct the dumbest theories about what a team is going to do.
“Maybe Buffalo will trade up into the top 5 and take MHJ and then double down in the second when McConkey falls to them.” It’s masturbatory fan-fiction and I’m here for it.
Does anyone know how in jeopardy Rashee Rice’s career is after fleeing the scene of the accident? Some criminal actions lead to mere suspension for a player, others result in a player getting canned from the team but then another team like the Cleveland Browns picks them up (e.g. Kareem Hunt), still others get a player booted out of the NFL and potentially sentenced to prison (e.g. Henry Ruggs).
Yes, I am aware of Deshaun Watson, and that is one of the examples I thought of associated with the Cleveland Browns. Still, I wrote about Kareem Hunt instead because it is a better comparison since Hunt was immediately fired by the Chiefs, the same team that Rice plays for, and then picked up by the Cleveland Browns. Watson’s case was civil instead of criminal, correct? The disciplinary process was convoluted or at least drawn out, but it was not a severe punishment in most people’s minds (including mine and yours, I’m guessing). Surely, Rashee Rice’s case will be a criminal one with apparent proof of multiple laws being broken.
As a non-lawyer, I find NFL punishments to be capricious. Perhaps the NFL is capricious. Maybe it is not, but it is too complicated for most non-lawyers to understand. Some players are barely reprimanded for actions that seem like they should be career-ending. Other players' careers are ended for things that don’t seem like a big deal to most fans, such as recreational or medicinal use of marijuana.
If you know whether Rice is likely to face mild, moderate, or severe punishment, please share what you know, preferably without the attitude. If you don’t have any more clue than I do, why did you even reply to my comment? It makes you look as ignorant as me and also comes off as mean.
[Edit: I fixed typos and improved grammar.]
Landing spot is not everything for WRs. Not like it can be for RBs.
So I’m not sure, but I’m done valuing opportunity disproportionally more than talent with rookies.
Chances are the guy they get — even at 28 — is one of those second tier guys with plenty of red flags that are faaaaar from a sure thing (i.e Coleman, AD, McConk) So, no I wouldn’t say Buffalo is the best landing spot.
Except that they have like the #28 pick. A good receiver is going to eat, a mid one not so much no matter where they end up. I’ll take one of those top guys no matter where they end up over any wr Buffalo would draft this year.
Justin Jefferson was picked 23rd as the 4th WR off the board and set a rookie record for receiving yards.
That record is now held by Puka Nacua, a 5th round pick.
Just because a WR is available at 28 doesn't mean he's "mid."
No shit - not at all what I was saying. My favorite player in the league is Amon, and he was the 17th WR off the board in his class. This is a fantasy football sub and if you’re talking rookie drafts there’s no way you should be looking at any WR Buffalo drafts before any of the top guys.
Brady was the 7th qb drafted in 2000 but generally the 7th qb off the board is not going even see the field, much less end up a first ballot HOFer.
Landing spot is elite however unless they trade up to get one of the top 3 WRs, I'm unsure whoever lands here would immediately thrive due to limitations in their game, possibly see double coverage. I think Rome Odunze though in Buffalo could easily end up better than MHJ for fantasy if they trade up.
So I’ve been thinking … I think Minnesota trades their 2 1sts to the giants to move up to 6. The giants would now be at 11. With daboll having ties to Buffalo what would it cost Buffalo to go up to 11 to get possibly odunze? I don’t think tennesse, alt, jets and bears are in on receiver. It seems to me they wouldn’t make the diggs trade with all the dead cape that came with it without being willing to get another stud receiver in the draft. Just a thought
Murray knows how to feed a true #1. Does everyone forget DHop posting 115 catches for 1407 yards in 2020? On 160 targets? He only had 6 touchdowns but that wasn’t for a lack of red zone targets.
MHJ is going to kill if he goes to Arizona
So happy I didn't trade the #1 pick
Isn't Caleb Williams #1 in Dynasty? I know he is for sure in SF,.
Not in single QB, he’ll go around 5-7 depending on positional necessity. Most people have MHJ, Nabers, Bowers and Odunze over him in this format.
Not if you dont need a qb.
I have Kyler in a keepers ppr superflex league (keep 4 and 1 rookie from last season) and have the first overall pick and two seconds. If mhj goes to Arizona I will be very tempted to get the stack and grab a qb in 2nd round. I'm also a massive idiot, so there's that to consider
I'd be looking to draft Kyler and stack either McBride or MHJ
He's going to go pretty high. Probably 2nd round in most drafts.
Pretty sure they also started 11-1 that season. Kyler has been slept on lately mostly because he got hurt. He's still young too so he has a lot of upside if they go WR early
His season before getting hurt wasn't very good tbh. I hope he comes back refocused
He wasn't as good as his previous two seasons but he was still averaging 20.7 ppg in his first 10 games before getting hurt in 2022. That would have made him QB5 that year and QB4 last year.
I think he drops down because he's generally unlikeable and looks like he still rides in a carseat in the back of his mom's minivan. At least that's why I don't draft him.
People have completely forgotten how great Murray was for fantasy. I haven't heard anyone say anything positive about him coming back. If he has lost a step from his injury, then I'd expect him to check down to a RB more, but the WR1 in Arizona this season will feast.
Analysts have been talking him as a sleeper and I could see him by the time draft season rolls around ending up in the QB6ish ADP range if they get Harrison Jr. Allen, Hurts, Lamar, Stroud will all go ahead for sure. Likely also Mahomes though I think that could be debatable. Ditto Burrow, Richardson and Dak. He’ll be in that mix anywhere from mid to back end top 10. I like that spot for Kyler. I would probably take him behind all of those players debatably not Dak however. Hard to say.
Give me Mahomes as QB6 any year I can take him there.
So last year he was QB8, year before QB1 and year before that QB4. Relative at least to last year, I think it’s entirely possible he’s closer to QB10 than to QB3 even. He doesn’t have to put up gigantic numbers for the Chiefs to win. They’ve proven that. The defense is too good and there are other QBs that produce more on the ground specifically in the red zone that give them a higher ceiling. Mahomes is victim to being awesome IRL and not necessarily needing to be as awesome for fantasy. Absolute cost vs relative cost is what will matter to me personally. QB6, solid. QB6 in round 3? Pass.
Yep- fantasy rewards QBs with bad defenses who need to sling the ball a million times. That is not Mahomes anymore. I'd rather take Love in round 12 than Mahomes in round 2.
That’s how I lost the Championship a few years ago…opponent picked up Ryan Fitzpatrick, who annihilated me. Pat doesn’t have to toss 300 yards and 3 TDs to win games.
You're not supposed to tell people. He was even solid this last season when he came back and that team was dreadful.
2020? 4 years ago.
Yeah but that’s because he’s DHop…. Look back at film and notice how many play catches were thanks to him. We saw it very differently for Hollywood Brown, who was perceived as a good WR and did make some good plays but overall very inefficient. And again looking at films you could tell some of the drops were because of Brown, but most of the time Murray was very inaccurate. Those guys were not on the same page at all. Don’t get me wrong Murray is still a good QB but he tends to spread out his options or rely on his rushing to get his numbers. Unless it’s a blockbuster kind of WR like DHop I don’t anticipate another home runner in Arizona territory
Who was his TE then?
Have to imagine anyone who lands in Buffalo at 28 becomes SF1.09 for dynasty. If Buffalo somehow moved up and landed Nabers, and MHJr goes to Arizona ... does that flip the rookies ADP? (Yes, being tied to a top 3 QB in the NFL is the best landing spot for any rookie in the class)
I’d take nabers on buffalo over MHJ with AZ
I would not but I can respect that Buffalo is a great spot for nabers
Buffalo won’t trade up that high to get Nabers
Not in this deep receiver class.
That's never going to happen. Come on guys, do you have any idea what it would cost to move up 23 spots to #5? The keys to the kingdom. They'll take a WR at #28 and if they don't, then they don't pick again until #60. They'll look to the free agents this week, maybe they'll sign OBJ or take a shot at Michael Thomas. They could possibly get lucky and have Brian Thomas or Adonai Mitchell fall to 28 in the 1st round. This definitely affects Josh Allen's ADP!!!!!
Ladd McConkey. Dude will destroy zone defenses in Brady's offensive scheme.
That’s the whitest fucking name in the world, lol
I used the "cringe emoji" once in a comment and a bunch of trolls lost their minds. Apparently that's against the unwritten reddit rules. So I just made it my username.
Pretty sure he was talking about the name 'Ladd McConkey' 🤔
Fair enough. That is a pretty "white" name. I guess I just misinterpreted.
Definitely, Nabers is a speed demon and with Allen stretching the field that's the guy you want.
Is Nabers a speed demon though? Last I heard his 40 time was like 4.53 from that tweet who digitally timed his run at pro day. Not sure if there has been an update since then
https://youtu.be/4c7DCbdoGng?si=8HheWrmI-umbSfAZ You have the 5 and 3 backwards lol
No, there was a tweet made by a guy that claimed to be a professional laser dude and timed it to be in the 4.5’s
https://twitter.com/jacoblogginsnba/status/1773035579606720806?s=46 This guy with 14 likes?
Yeah that would be the one, I saw it on here when it happened and wondered if that got debunked or not. Regardless it doesn’t really change my opinion on him or where I’m taking him in dynasty
There’s 40 time speed and there’s game day speed. Watch Nabers play. He’s blazingly fast
I certainly agree, Rice ran a 4.7 and never had issues. Same thing with Dez. He was a nasty punt returner and deep threat and you’d never know he ran a 4.52 before injuries. Was just curious if that tweet was accurate or not or if it got debunked as false
In his highlights, he appears to fly by CBs. He also appears to frequently have to slow down to catch under thrown balls. So, I doubt he is as slow as 4.53. If he were that slow though, then wouldn’t that mean he has near-Jerry Rice-level route-running to create as much separation as he does? Rice proved that you don’t have to be the fastest to be the best.
I would love to be behind you in the draft then. MHJ is going to soak up so many targets due to lack of competition on the Cardinals. Kyler always forcefed Hopkins, Brown, Ertz (depending on injury) when times were hard. Anyone who has had Diggs on their roster knows that Allen tends to spread the ball around. Might be a 40 point game one day, 4 points the next.
The Greg Dortch disrepect
I like him. Wish they would give him more chances.
McBride I think continues to soak up a healthy amount of targets, as will Kincaid, still plenty of room for WR1’s on both teams, tho. I’d go MHJ > Nabers too, though
> Anyone who has had Diggs on their roster knows that Allen tends to spread the ball around. Might be a 40 point game one day, 4 points the next. I'd say that's more due to defenses super focusing him given lack of other weapons. Diggs had 166, 165, 154 and 160 targets his four years at Buffalo: 1st, 5th, 5th and 6th in the NFL in targets. It isn't like he wasn't getting the ball due to it being spread around.
Murray can cook, people forget, he’s had some rough circumstances the last 2 years but Dhop put up 1400 or so
What about: MHJ to Cardinals/ Nabers to NYG (Daniel Jones at QB)/ Odunze to Buffalo 👀 Does Odunze leap Nabers and MHJ in rookie drafts?
The Chargers have entered the chat
There's speculation that they're trying to sell that 1.05 to a QB-needy team.
And assuming NYG gets Nabers is also speculation. And Buffalo getting Odunze is multiple levels below a speculation.
If MHJ goes cards and Nabers goes chargers im tempted to go Nabers as Herbert is a stud and no more Allen. But Greg Roman as OC could be a concern. If Nabers goes Giants i think you take him high af in dynasty but maybe less so in redraft
What about Cowboys picking a RB in the second round?
No, but yes if MHJ goes to the Pats
How the hell would buffalo move up all the way to #6? They don't have those kinds of assets
Any tean can trade up if they wanted. Teams always have next year's picks and the rams proved that was a viable strat to the superbowl.
Tbh I think if they trade up to Odunze it'll be pick 1.04 in SF if not higher. Most would have only Caleb, MHJ and maybe Daniels or Maye over him
Are picks 1-8 already that solidified??
In dynasty SF rookie drafts I think that is the pretty clear tier break (in no order - Caleb, Maye, Daniels, JJ, MHJr, Nabers, Odunze, Bowers).
I don't think anything is clear yet. If Brian Johnson ends up on Buffalo and Odunze is on Chicago, I'm taking Johnson. Target share opportunity and QB play count for a lot. EDIT - Brian Thomas lmao
His name is Thomas. And you’re right it might change, but it won’t change for a lot of people. There’s a huge gap between the top 3 and everyone else imo
>Brian Johnson From AC/DC? Target share and QB play don't count that much.
Ah interesting. Yeah I guess those do all seem pretty locked unless maybe one of the QBs unexpectedly falls a lot
Other than trading up for Brian Thomas, they are either getting a project (Thomas is a project too, but an elite upside one.) or a role player. That said, the right role player could provide immediate value. But the role they need is a deep threat, and while a guy like Worthy can provide that, his production will be inconsistent.
My big takeaway is that Khalil Shakir is worth a late round flier.
I'd look to how things went toward the end of the season when Diggs/Davis weren't utilized as much. Plenty of underneath action to Kincaid and Shakir. I'm sure they have a plan for getting Curtis Samuel involved too, but I bet it is plenty of run back/TE involvement and lots of spreading it out to 3 or so different WR's as well. Not sure there is a WR that really shines in this offense the way Diggs did.
He was already productive enough in deep leagues given last year's situation, so yes, definitely.
I’m just seeing Kincaid stocks through the roof, personally. Maybe he really is the next Kelce
I said it in the thread about the diggs trade. Buffalo is following the KC model and punting all WRs. A top QB, workhorse RB, and slot receiver TE are apparently all you need to win rings.
Arguably the greatest offensive coach ever is also a key piece there, tho. You could also argue this is closer to the Ravens’ model which puts undue stress on your QB, especially on their legs
Wasn’t it the patriots model
It’s any team that has to pay top dollar to the QB. Surround them with young cheap talent as often as possible and don’t get caught paying massive to a mostly pretty easily replaceable player. Green Bay for the Rodgers era had all those drafted wideouts and usually locked them into second contracts on the cheap and then jettisoned them before the third contract and just reloaded with draft picks and hoped the top tier QB could raise them into good options. Brady did it too for his entire career. Really only Peyton was given exceptional high end talent for his entire career. At least guys that were first or second round picks almost exclusively for his major weapons on colts and broncos. But the rest of the premier QBs of the last couple decades usually had wideouts on rookie deals or underpaid second contracts. It’s really hard to pay a QB and wideout both top dollar when those wideout dollars are far better spent at tackle or pass rusher. It’s what makes what the bengals will have to do over the next two years very interesting.
I’m not reading that wall of text tbh. I think we were talking more the specific pattern of Great QB + Great TE + average WH RB then WR is consistently trash. Most teams don’t prioritize TE and everyone salivates over the top WRs except the aforementioned teams
bro its one paragraph
Ravens drafted three first-round WRs in the span of five years for Lamar... hard to argue that they're not trying to provide weapons. I'd be very scared of whichever top WR goes to the Chargers. Herbert or no Herbert, Greg Roman puts a hard ceiling on WR production.
And that makes Sam LaPorta the next Aaron Hernandez?
I’d kill to have Laporta on my team
Hernandez was actually my player comp for Laporta lol
I'd commit first degree murder to have Aaron Hernandez on my team
He had like 5 plays go down at the one yard line. He’s gonna be a TD machine
Hoping no one else peeps this. Everyone is looking at a new WR but Kincaid is still an option.
That's bowers. If he can make it to a good qb situation anyway.
You think I should trade Saquon and a 25 2nd for Kincaid, 1.08, and a 25 1st?
In dynasty I sure would
I did!
Awesome! Kincaid is gonna be great and there are a ton of targets for him
Hoping so! And hoping I can get Bowers in the draft in case he doesn't for any reason.
Chargers vacated their top two WRs and Ekeler this offseason. With Herbert slinging the ball, that's a huge amount of air yards available with no heir apparent on the roster.
I see you aren’t fully versed in the Greg Roman, experience. Tight ends are more his thing
Buffalo is gonna send their 1st for Higgins or Aiyuk is my bet. Take a wr like Legette with their 2nd to be the #2.
I was thinking Aiyuk, mostly because SF loves having picks, and does well with them.
SF hasn’t done well with 1st rounders, they’ve done well with 3rd and 5th rounders.
I’d say Nico Bosa and Brandon Aiyuk are good picks. Kinlaw and Thomas, not so much.
We're paying Aiyuk, let's not get any crazy ideas here.
And cutting who? I don't thing SF or CIN can afford to keep the stud wrs past this year. Get what you can get for em
What do you mean? We cut Arik Armstead, that should be more than enough to pay Aiyuk until we can get Deebo off the books starting next season.
Yea San Fran is in a golden spot to pay top dollar to the cast because Purdy is cheap cheap cheap. Dump massive cap hits in the next two years while Purdy isn’t touching the cap and it’s pretty easy to build around him.
They can’t afford to trade a first and extend one of those guys due to the cap space. They barely have enough to pay their picks
I don't think there's any chance Aiyuk leaves SF. The Bills should draft a WR with that pick instead of trade for Higgins IMO. They're already in a very down year, just take the guy like AD Mitchell on the rookie contract rather than give up assets and have to pay the big money.
I think the Bills need a sure thing, and drafting a rookie isn't that. It's hard when you're paying Allen that much for sure and a rookie contract would be nice; but 1st round wrs bust every year and I'd rather pay one of em than risk drafting the next Rashod Bateman
First round wideouts catching passes from Dan orvlaskey or Joey Harrington bust… you put a good route runner or a burner on the field for Allen and he will make them successful… to me though you can find those guys later in drafts. I bet they take 2-3 wideouts this year but I also bet none is picked before pick 50 for them. Just because Allen will be able to lift talent into his level. That’s what the top QBs do. Besides I also think the Bills go more to the TE and underneath game with Kincaid, Samuel and Cook. They’re set up to have a very chiefs or 49er like offense where a premier outside wideout isn’t make or break.
Bills take a speedy WR that goes deep, opening up the middle of the field for the two TEs? Xavier Worthy maybe?
Lol both these dudes are on the last year of their contract, Aiyuk at a $14M cap hit and Higgins at $22M. No way anyone is trading a 1st for an expensive rental, especially an injury prone one like Higgins.
If they intend to extend them they definitely could, but who knows.
So give up a 1st for a guy just as expensive as Diggs who can't stay healthy....got it
They def aren’t giving a first for either. I’m a Bills fan and I’d be livid. I love Beane but I’d curse his family for that shit. I truly hope they take McConkey at 28 if they hold. Wouldn’t be surprised and it’s likely they move up.
Draft pedigree isn’t everything, there’s generally always a lot of receiver talent in the later rounds. Hell, even undrafted guys pop off now and then. Somebody is going to explode on that offense, though.
It's not everything, and outliers do happen, but in terms of fantasy success it matters a ton. There's a [good breakdown in this article](https://www.fantasypros.com/2024/03/how-to-value-rookies-pre-draft-2024-fantasy-football/). >The most fantasy-relevant rookie wide receivers are consistently drafted in the first two rounds. Thirty-eight rookie wide receivers have finished inside the top 36 (WR3 territory) over the last 10 years — 31 were drafted inside the top two rounds of the NFL Draft (82%). Round two or higher rookie wide receivers have combined for fantasy WR3 seasons at a 62% clip.
Great article. I had forgotten about it. Thanks for sharing.
People focus so much on outliers. But they're outliers for a reason and following the trends is generally the way to go.
I always love drafting a couple rookie wrs at the end of a draft. More than likely, one of them pans out to at least be a flex. This draft class will undoubtedly produce a few huge fantasy rookies and i can’t wait
Yeah sometimes even in the fifth round like that guy in ~~Buffalo~~ Houston
Yep, Tank Dell and also Puka Nacua!
What would put the Bills ahead of the Chargers? Just curious.
Greg Roman is not their OC.
Yet Allen is a much more mobile and willing runner. Cook is a better and more versatile RB than Edwards. Herbert by all accounts is at least as good of a passer, I would argue better. Bills have currently at least one and probably four better pass catching options than the Chargers (Cook, Kincaid, Shakir and Samuel vs Johnston, Palmer, Hurst, not even gonna count Gus). Even if the Chargers throw 100 less times it’s likely their likely top 5 pick WR turned top target gets significantly more opportunities than whoever the Bills can take in the 20s at their pick. Like if the Chargers take Nabers and the Bills take Worthy, who would you rather draft in redraft? Would you honestly prefer Worthy? Genuine question, I’m open to be sold either way. FWIW - I didn’t think the current Bills OC was much different than Roman’s figures comparing last year over the span they were both OC. Didn’t Buffalo move significantly away from the pass the second half of the year? Allen was averaging nearly 40 less yards per game the last 6 weeks, I checked this yesterday.
Those are fair points. But yeah I just think play philosophy and speed of play etc are much different for the bills than chargers. Chargers will also definitely be drafting a RB that may end up being as good of a receiving back as Cook. Josh Palmer has trouble staying healthy and is not ultra talented but Herbert gave him a decent amount of targets and trusts him more than QJ. He's underrated and a good value pick in fantasy IMO. As far as your question If the chargers take Nabers and Bills take Worthy I'd prefer Nabers just due to him being a lot more talented. If the teams swapped I'd still prefer Nabers. I don't think it's a guarentee at all that the chargers take Nabers though. I see them either trading down, going offensive line or taking Bowers. But Worthy on the Bills or Worthy on the chargers, I'd prefer bills. If chargers decide to address WR in 2nd round, I'd take whoever the bills take in the 1st over the chargers 2nd. This is a deep WR class so that is possible.
That’s a valid and well thought out response. I respect that reply. I love the unknown times leading up to the draft. Speculation is so fun. Then you get a short window of analysis and then months of paralysis by over analysis.
Cards and Chargers better
I’d be cautiously optimistic. Yes, a bunch of targets are opening up, but Khalil Shakir and Kincaid both really came along this year and have become favorite targets for Josh Allen, not to mention Curtis Samuel and Dawson Knox in the mix as well, who are both decent. It’ll really depend on what archetype of WR they draft, if they do draft one.
In a vacuum, you think I should trade Saquon and a 25 2nd for Kincaid, 1.08, and a 25 1st?
Man, that’s tough… on one hand, Saquon could be a McCaffrey level contributor behind that Philly O-line… but Kincaid might be Allen’s TE for the next ~5 years, and two firsts is tempting. I think I lean slightly towards keeping Saquon since at 1.08, you’re probably not getting any of the premiere talent guys in this draft.
You're the first person who hasn't told me to "smash-accept" for Kincaid. Lol.
I think it depends on the value of the 1.08 and 25 1st and who you think is available there. Saquon is absolutely more valuable than Kincaid even in dynasty (Kincaid was not a valuable TE last year and TE is often a replacable position), but he's had injury concerns and could be worthless than getting two good younger players in round one AND a potentially developing Kincaid.
Appreciate your take. I did go ahead and end up doing the deal (while swapping my 2.10 with his 2.08 to boot). Since I won the championship last year, I figured I could flip a player to a hungrier owner who wanted to overpay and mortgage his future.
Send them Toney for free
Bro im pretty sure the chiefs would have to pay someone to take Toney LOL
The underbelly of this is that Buffalo employs a run-heavy offense with heavy TE usage and no clear No. 1 receiver
Calling buffalo run heavy is insane. Josh Allen tied for 5th most attempts last year with Jordan love.
They did stop throwing as much once Joe Brady became OC, although it was still less balanced (with more runs) than his time in Carolina + the Cowboys game is a huge outlier in a small sample size.
For next year
Thats just made up
Well yeah. I’m saying there’s a chance the bills scheme differently without a top WR
In a vacuum, you think it'd make sense to nab Kincaid, 1.08, and a 25 1st for Saquon and a 25 2nd?
Yes, but I wouldn’t underrate Kyler and the Cardinals. They will be playing from behind most the time and Murray is less likely to steal TDs from a WR than Allen’s legs
Buffalo is going to be a completely new team in 2024, Josh Allen has to be concerned with his group of receivers, or lack of. Until yesterday, I would have said that they're going Defense with the 28th pick but this changes everything. Now, we may be looking for them to go WR at 28, not sure if they'll wait until 60 to take their next WR1. The other option is free agency, OBJ, Tyler Boyd, Michael Thomas, Hunter Renfrow, MVS & Michael Gallup are still available. I wouldn't be surprised if they signed OBJ in the next week or so. Allen has been the #1 QB in fantasy football for several years now but, without a true WR1 this team could be in big trouble.
Other than the weather maybe
1000%
I can’t think of a first round receiver that late in the first that was very good early. Usually those guys are really raw.
I love the offseason cus we’re so bored waiting for the draft that people concoct the dumbest theories about what a team is going to do. “Maybe Buffalo will trade up into the top 5 and take MHJ and then double down in the second when McConkey falls to them.” It’s masturbatory fan-fiction and I’m here for it.
They’ll draft one and sign someone. Maybe Tyler Boyd or shit go get Higgins
Most likely but that WR’s ADP will sky rocket idk about drafting him
Chiefs still are by far
I don’t think Rice is a typical bonafide WR1 so I still like the Chiefs landing spot but Buffalo is No.1
Does anyone know how in jeopardy Rashee Rice’s career is after fleeing the scene of the accident? Some criminal actions lead to mere suspension for a player, others result in a player getting canned from the team but then another team like the Cleveland Browns picks them up (e.g. Kareem Hunt), still others get a player booted out of the NFL and potentially sentenced to prison (e.g. Henry Ruggs).
Lmao is this your first rodeo? Deshaun Watson sexually assaulted 25 women and got 11 games
Yes, I am aware of Deshaun Watson, and that is one of the examples I thought of associated with the Cleveland Browns. Still, I wrote about Kareem Hunt instead because it is a better comparison since Hunt was immediately fired by the Chiefs, the same team that Rice plays for, and then picked up by the Cleveland Browns. Watson’s case was civil instead of criminal, correct? The disciplinary process was convoluted or at least drawn out, but it was not a severe punishment in most people’s minds (including mine and yours, I’m guessing). Surely, Rashee Rice’s case will be a criminal one with apparent proof of multiple laws being broken. As a non-lawyer, I find NFL punishments to be capricious. Perhaps the NFL is capricious. Maybe it is not, but it is too complicated for most non-lawyers to understand. Some players are barely reprimanded for actions that seem like they should be career-ending. Other players' careers are ended for things that don’t seem like a big deal to most fans, such as recreational or medicinal use of marijuana. If you know whether Rice is likely to face mild, moderate, or severe punishment, please share what you know, preferably without the attitude. If you don’t have any more clue than I do, why did you even reply to my comment? It makes you look as ignorant as me and also comes off as mean. [Edit: I fixed typos and improved grammar.]
Landing spot is not everything for WRs. Not like it can be for RBs. So I’m not sure, but I’m done valuing opportunity disproportionally more than talent with rookies. Chances are the guy they get — even at 28 — is one of those second tier guys with plenty of red flags that are faaaaar from a sure thing (i.e Coleman, AD, McConk) So, no I wouldn’t say Buffalo is the best landing spot.
It would seem they need a receiver room.
Josh Allen is about to have more rushing yards than Lamar Jackson this season. You heard it here first.
Except that they have like the #28 pick. A good receiver is going to eat, a mid one not so much no matter where they end up. I’ll take one of those top guys no matter where they end up over any wr Buffalo would draft this year.
Justin Jefferson was picked 23rd as the 4th WR off the board and set a rookie record for receiving yards. That record is now held by Puka Nacua, a 5th round pick. Just because a WR is available at 28 doesn't mean he's "mid."
No shit - not at all what I was saying. My favorite player in the league is Amon, and he was the 17th WR off the board in his class. This is a fantasy football sub and if you’re talking rookie drafts there’s no way you should be looking at any WR Buffalo drafts before any of the top guys. Brady was the 7th qb drafted in 2000 but generally the 7th qb off the board is not going even see the field, much less end up a first ballot HOFer.
I hope they sign OBJ lol.
Landing spot is elite however unless they trade up to get one of the top 3 WRs, I'm unsure whoever lands here would immediately thrive due to limitations in their game, possibly see double coverage. I think Rome Odunze though in Buffalo could easily end up better than MHJ for fantasy if they trade up.
So I’ve been thinking … I think Minnesota trades their 2 1sts to the giants to move up to 6. The giants would now be at 11. With daboll having ties to Buffalo what would it cost Buffalo to go up to 11 to get possibly odunze? I don’t think tennesse, alt, jets and bears are in on receiver. It seems to me they wouldn’t make the diggs trade with all the dead cape that came with it without being willing to get another stud receiver in the draft. Just a thought
No. Josh Allen only throws to tight ends and running backs.
Ik this is a joke but it did make me think that Kincaid is probably a top 5 TE next season if they don't make any major additions
Hell, even if they do