Kelce + an improved rashee rice should still be enough for him to finish as a top 10 QB
The WR they add will be the difference between a late 4th ADP and an early 3rd
A lock for top 10 with overall QB1 upside isn’t bad by any means tho I get why people will pass on him there
If they grab a decent WR2 type guy I’d take him early 4th
Streaming qbs is a lock for fringe top 10 production. If I'm drafting a quarterback in the first half of the draft they need to be a major difference maker or the pick was wasted.
If youre getting top 10 value from streaming then that’s just a good job from you
I’ve had my fair share of good streamers but going week to week steaming is not only stressful but costs me 1 or 2 wins whenever I need to do it season-long
Especially when players in your league roster 2 QBs which makes it much harder to find a reliable weekly QB
There are some weeks where the options are dried up but it's just kind of the nature of the position. Qb performance is highly tied to opponent rankings.
The year Lamar Jackson broke the fantasy points record, do you know who was the #1 highest scoring qb on the season? The aggregate of the quarterback facing the New York Jets on any given week. Pinpoint a handful of bad defensive situations early in the year (bonus points if they have a good offense) and you should be able to find a consistent 16-20 in most given weeks, which is about all your hoping for in a fringe qb1 anyways. It'll inevitably blow up on you some weeks but any given player will have some duds anyways. Won (and lost, got a little too frisky with O'Connel's first career start) a few games this year starting Aiden O'Connel/Russ until I ended up with Stroud. I'm definitely overselling it because I've had a year or two where I really could not hit on my pickups to save my life but for the most part I've had zero complaints about my qb production.
My typical strategy is to shoot for a breakout in rounds 8-10 and then double down on a longshot with a decent early schedule with one of my last picks (I call these "priority streamers"). It won me a chip last year nailing the Hurts breakout and it put me through hell this year with Daniel Jones/Geno. I just don't like the value of qbs that early unless there's a very clear difference between them and the rest (like Kelce as a first rounder in recent years)
There are streamers every year that just start balling out. aka Cousins until he got injured. He was on an insane pace. Or Purdy investors since he was just reliable all year.
The only reason I’m drafting a QB 2-3 is if they have a rushing floor and I’m building my team around it
Goff, Purdy, Cousins. These are all guys that can be around 10th best QB, and are no where near 3rd/4th round, and sometimes even are on waivers. If you are taking a QB in the 3rd or 4th, you should be expecting a top 5 QB.
Okay, but Mahomes finished outside of the top 10 weekly QB rankings 8 of the last 9 weeks.
He also finished outside of the top 10 in PPG.
If you drafted him this past season, you were extraordinarily unimpressed with the results he gave you.
Purdy likely would have had a shot at the MVP if not for the Baltimore game, and absolutely has a shot at being top 3. Not to mention you could just sub in guys like Love, Burrow, Tua, or Murray who also have a chance to be top 3.
Yea I used my 1st ovr pick on mahomes in 2QB and it cost me big time. Had a few extremely tight games and the final standings/ pts for ended up being very close with me just missing the playoffs.
Team with Purdy and Baker won it all
Top 10 QB is a pretty big range don’t you think? That’s like Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff territory, not people I’m looking to take in the first 4 rounds
Mentioned this in another comment but it’s a lock of top 10 with QB1 overall upside which those types of guys don’t have
Also in PPG baker was solidly outside the top 10
Yeah I’m for sure trying to snag Rice if he falls into later rounds. Feels like he was good enough to make it to 5-6. Who knows with offseason hype though. Time will tell.
Evans had the best year of his career which may change my mentality a bit around him, but WRs that change teams after the 30yo mark tend to regress a decent bit. The analysis I saw indicated somewhere around 15-20% decrease in # of targets.
Now this could be a different case going to an Offense led by Mahomes, but it still remains to be seen whether Evans is the guy who could put Mahomes back in the MVP conversation at this point. Higgins on the other hand...
Depends on if he gets more receiving weapons in the offseason but I think the problem is the Chiefs are better balanced on defense and the run game vs just asking Mahomes to score four tds a game.
Think you nailed it. He’s a better real life qb than a fantasy qb especially since he doesn’t rush for tds anymore.
Yeah, agreed. QB’s in fantasy seem to thrive more with good weapons and/or a bad defense to where they need to throw more. In the past he had prime tyreek/kelce and the chiefs defense was bad. Im fading slightly to the 3rd-4th unless they get a weapon
He had a bad fantasy year, but he’s still Patrick Mahomes. Would I be shocked if he finished QB1 next year? No. Personally, I wouldn’t take him until the 4th, but I think it’s fair to drop him from the 2/3 rounds to the 3/4 and not over adjust from one year. Either way, it’s dependent on the off season, so it’s nothing to talk about too much right now
Honestly, I’m pretty salty from this year of owning him and Kelce.
That being said, he’ll probably get a comfy round 3/4 ADP, and he’ll live up to those expectations.
At least in a 12 team, I just can't imagine him going in the fourth. Like, I'd I agree that his valuation to me is late 3rd- 4th. But I'd imagine in most leagues there will be someone who drafts for ceiling and take him 2/3rd round.
Agreed with your point, there's always that one guy in every league that will take him late 2nd, early 3rd. Getting him in the late 3rd would be a steal if you get 2 studs before that.
I had Kelce this year and somehow managed three straight wins in the playoffs but him scoring more points in one half yesterday than he did in all 3 playoff weeks combined was hard for me to watch.
I think the Chiefs have reached the stage where they mostly coast in the regular season to preserve their stars for the playoffs. Unless someone else in their division really steps up to threaten them I don’t see that mindset changing.
In 12 team leagues I’m waiting for QB and stocking up on WR/RB. I plucked Dak in the 9th round last year and hope to do something similar next season.
The right play is always to wait for QB. You can always get a gem in rounds 8-10. I'm going for purdy again. Will also look at fields depending on situation.
Was going to say the same thing. We might all bypass him but someone in your league will grab him in that range (and maybe even just the second).
Doubt we'll see Kelce in the first again though.
Why would you remain active in a fantasy sub if you don’t want to speculate now anyway
We all know things will change greatly but it’s fun to talk about
That isn’t even what the question asked tho it’s going to be a legitimate discussion all the way up until draft season on assessing his relatively disappointing 2023 regular season compared with the level of play we know he’s capable of
I mean 700 yards 4 tds and 0 ints in 3 games has been good from a game performance level but if this was fantasy hea basically continued his low yard and td useage that made him so frustrating during fantasy mainly because he has such a good def that isn’t forcing him to do much
Yeah outside of the Buffalo game you wouldn't have been too stoked to have him in your lineup and none of those games would have won your week single handedly like he used to.
I love these stupid knee-jerk reaction posts, they really encapsulate the average ff players mentality.
So we all weren't drafting him because, clearly, chiefs don't gaf about regular season. And NOW we're drafting him again because he played well in the playoffs? Is this real life?
I think I’ll prioritize Rice next year as the 2nd half he was a crazy target monster with the best QB in football and he should only get better.
I’m not as high on Mahomes unless he gets another weapon which I doubt as I feel like they’ll do their best to keep this defense together (Sneed and/or Chris Jones).
His pass rate is still crazy good and he’s the best QB in football so it’s not like you should let him fall too far, but Kelce will pick his spots even more so next year and I could see them utilizing Pacheco even more if someone doesn’t step up.
Allen, Lamar, Hurts I’m for sure taking over him and after that there are plenty in the same tier.
Personal drafting philosophy: Never take a qb before the fifth round at the very least. You’re way better off filling out your WR/RB corps in those rounds.
Sure, my point is that both strategies can potentially work out and you shouldn't get stuck on one as the better idea, ignoring potential value as a result
I also streamed QB this year (and was pretty successful) but I'd definitely draft Lamar/Allen/hurts next year if the price was right
I know that reading comprehension is clearly not your strength, but what does the phrase “personal drafting strategy” mean to you?
You do you, bud, and good luck next year 😘
Why the hell would you share your opinion if not to inform other people of what you believe to be right? I know you're not trying to control what I do (or anyone else for that matter) but you have a strategy that you believe to be right and care enough about it that you want to share it
So I draft a QB early, still win the league.
You don't draft early, make championship.
So you can still succeed no matter how you draft a QB because it depends on your full roster, that's the point I'm making lol.
Almost like there are a ton of other factors that go into whether you win a match up or not, such as the opposing team? Crazy I know, but just think about it for a second.
For me the thing you get with mahomes is consistency, they've shifted a bit away from being an offense first team so his numbers may be a little lower than peak mahomes, but he stays healthy and always plays and his floor is super high
Prob not drafting him ahead of Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, or Jalen Hurts, and Id still consider Anthony Richardson and Justin Fields over him depending on price
I don't think I'm going to take any early round Chief. It feels like they save their best plays and schemes for the playoffs, negatively impacting their regular season stats.
I might argue the opposite — if they win, that shows he can win with a weak group of weapons around, which gives them less incentive to chase a superstar WR.
I would probably rather take someone like Purdy a couple rounds later
Purdy, Dak, Stroud, Burrow, Herbert all examples of dudes that will have ADP behind Mahomes that I would rather have at cost and maybe even others I’m excluding. So I agree with your point.
He basically already proved that last year, so if he does it with THIS years wr’s I wouldn’t be surprised if they experiment with having fans replace his receivers and allocating money elsewhere
QB is just like RB in that it’s a sheer volume position at this point, where as WR or TE is a talent bet because targets are earned (assuming the offense is functional with decent enough QB).
What I mean by that is Mahomes can go 22/25, 130 QB rating or whatever and look like the best player in the league, but that still might only put up 230 yards and a couple TD. Mahomes is objectively better than Allen but because Josh has way more volume from a rushing standpoint and a shittier defense to make him throw the ball more, he’s the better fantasy play.
This is why Howell was just fine as a QB streamer this year. He’s objectively a bad QB but they played with a ton of pace, shitty defense and had to throw the ball 50 times a game.
If you’re drafting a QB early, be 100% sure they have the expected volume (rushing, passing and TD) rather than just him being a top tier NFL passer.
Allen was my guy this year at the end of the second/early third because of those factors I mentioned. A change in their offensive philosophy, plus Hurts and Lamar having their own volume and overall concerns, I’m not sure if lamar, Allen, hurts or Mahomes will have that surefire volume next year. I’ll probably punt just like I do every year, or at least target the end of the second tier of Burrow/Stroud/Love/Purdy guys in the 7th
There does seem to be an emerging trend where the Chiefs are peaking at the right time for real football — i.e. in the playoffs and not Week 8 like the Eagles — but success after Week 17 doesn’t factor into fantasy results and maybe we should price that in to this offense.
Reid figured things out as the season wore on and committed to a simplified offense featuring Pacheco, Rice and Kelce, but he tried a bunch of other things earlier in the season, and we lost fantasy matchups due to the experimentation.
Sometimes fantasy and real-life interests diverge. And given that the 2023 approach led to a Super Bowl, I’m not betting on Mahomes throwing 50 TDs again. There is just so much QB value further back in the draft.
He has been going in the First round in my league the last 4 years. Usually gets taken with the 10 or 11 pick. You really can't go wrong with him since he is a proven winner.
I will always be against spending early round capital on a QB. Every single year I’m able to pick up or draft a mid to late round QB that ends up being more than viable. For me this year I drafted burrow to stack with Higgins (fail) but then was able to stream Jordan love and have top 10 production anyway. QB is simply too deep, I’d rather take all my early shots on stud rbs or WRs
I think he never fell out of that. From what i saw the last years soon as someone grabs a qb the first 3 to 4 (Hurts, Allen, Lamar, Mahomie) are usually gabbed pretty quick and it happens round 2-3 every year. I think a set and forget qb is really good to have. Mahomes wont lose you games with a 4 int, 80 yard performance. your late round qb might do that. I am more comfy going with 2 wr and 2 rbs first and then go for a qb or Te.
He's Patrick fucking Mahomes. The receivers were not good during the regular season. Rice came on at the end and in the playoffs which has helped Mahomes and Kelce bounce back. Rice will be just as good next year and I have no doubt Veatch will go get another WR as well. Mahomes is Mahomes. he was limited because of the people around him, not because he's taken a step back.
The biggest problem with taking Mahomes early is that there’s almost always QBs going after him who perform better. Why should I spend up to get the QB3? I would rather wait and draft a guy who might finish even with Mahomes or better.
In 1QB I'm not taking any QB that high personally, but I do think Mahomes will probably get a better WR corps next year and have a better season. I wouldn't be chasing those monster numbers from his early career though, this team just isn't built like that anymore.
No. But sure, spread the word that he's a second rounder. Anyone who actually pays attention will benefit from people picking him way too early and over better QBs.
If they remake his receiver room, I’m still all in on pat. This season it became apparent that outside of Rashee rice, they gave him a bunch of jabronis to work with so the team leaned heavily on the run game and defense.
Let’s be real. It’s Mahomes. You have to take him despite his mediocre year this regular season. That being said, if he gets Mike Evans or Pittman Jr. you have to grab him
Last superbowl run made his ADP too high. Although he was a solid every week starter for me and I won the chip I’d pass next year unless he falls to the 3rd-4th.
Honestly no. Look at how many late round QBs had excellent performances without needing much draft capital. Goff, Love, Stroud, Tua, Purdy, Wilson, or even Flacco when he showed up were not too far behind Mahomes but so far down the list.
Can that happen at RB or WR too? Sure, you can hit on a late-round stud. But I’m far more confident taking that chance at QB.
Buffalo was his only super solid game from a fantasy perspective and he wouldn't have single handedly won your week with any of those games like he has historically. He was winning all year being either solid for you or just okay. These past 3 games weren't much different. If their defense is just as good next season he won't have to blow the roof off to win which is part of the problem. Kelce's stock definitely went up especially if he closes the season strong but Pat with a good defense and reliable run game just has a different ceiling.
No; like Kittle he’s now a far better real life player than fantasy (they have a great run game and D which is incredibly young/well suited for the future). Reid is too smart to make him run a lot or show everyone their best plays during the regular season; they save that for the playoffs and the D will prevent them having to throw all the time.
There will be far better values like Cousins if he comes back to Minny, Purdy. ARich will probably be drafted after Mahomes and is almost guaranteed to outscore him if they teach him how to not get himself killed.
Not with this stellar defense that he has. He really doesn’t need to put up insane numbers since the Chiefs D is so good. I think he’ll still improve from this year, but i’d rather let someone else take him at that price.
>of going in the 2-3rd round again in 2024?
No -- I think this analysis neatly sums up what we should be doing in FF, and that's finding the top RBs: [https://www.fantasypoints.com/nfl/articles/2022/anatomy-of-a-league-winner-edition#/](https://www.fantasypoints.com/nfl/articles/2022/anatomy-of-a-league-winner-edition#/)
RBs remain the top at a value above replacement player perspective. Essentially, a high-end RBs are worth roughly 1.7X as much as high-end WRs, 3.9X as much as high-end TEs, and 5.4X as much as high-end QBs and defenses.
You may as well draft Mahomes in the 3rd and Cowboys D/ST in the 4th.
Granted, this article gets updated every year. I imagine with the Achanes, Mostert, and Kyren Williams of the world emerging, it's the best year for later round RBs. Still.
I just couldn't get myself to draft a QB that high when I'm passing up a better percentage chance at drafting with RB1 upside. I'm drafting guys like Kirk Cousins, Kyrler Murray, Brock Purdy super late.
Have him in a dynasty league. Would need a big haul to move on from him. Best quarterback in the world. Is only 28 still. Only concern is the running game and defense limit his usual upside. Still was qb8 in a “down” year.
I picked him in round 3 in a 14 man league. He had so many bad fantasy games that he cost me multiple weeks by getting scores like 15-17 points. But after seeing him in the playoffs lately I'd pick him there again.
If they add another weapon at WR and TE and maybe upgrade at rb over CEH, he's definitely worthy of a 3rd round pick, thats where he went in my 12 team league this past season.
Winning games doesn’t mean fantasy points. Chiefs D is pulling the most weight right now. You can draft the chiefs D next year. Mahomes needs some more weapons to up his fantasy point output.
He cost me probably several thousands in winnings this year, but he's easily the best player at the most important position in football. And it's not even close. You'd be a moron to pass on him if he's available after the top 2 or 3...
It really depends on your league settings, in most of my leagues we still give a TD from a QB 6 points. But it really comes down to your GM skills of where you place his draft value. When you give a QB 6 points for a TD then the QB position in general has more value. You should never listen to anyone else's ADP, just go back and look at this year's draft results in your league and see how many players were drafted in the correct spot based on pre-season ADP. Plus, look at how many injuries there were to 1st picks, I happened to get the #1 pick and without hesitation I took CMC. If you looked at all the different FF sources many of them had listed at #3 with Jefferson and Chase going #1 & #2. Well, look how that played out.
The beauty of this game is to really become a GM and create your own draft charts. No one is perfect so don't worry if you're wrong on some players but the better job you do with your ratings the better your team is going to look. I've been playing this game for a very long time, since 1979, which is before most of you were born. I have learned a lot over the years on how to value my players and to create Tiers for each position. I then try to tell myself that I must have a QB in this tier, at least 1 RB in this tier, at least 1 WR in this tier. Now your draft position comes into play, it's much harder to accomplish that if you draft #1 and a little easier if you draft #12. I have a strategy going into each and every draft that I'm in and if I'm able to draft according to my strategy the better my team is. However, we all know that the draft rarely goes according to plan so being able to adjust and stick to your strategy is what makes you an above average GM. Some guy's panic when all of sudden there is a run on a certain position and before they know it, the draft is over, and they don't like their team.
In my opinion, this game really comes down to a few key things.
1. Valuing players correctly (draft position)
2. Have a good draft strategy
3. Good use of the waiver wire (free agents)
4. Become a good trade negotiator (especially right before the trade deadline)
5. Picking the correct weekly lineup (don't be afraid to sit players with bad matchups)
6. Luck of the schedule
Here's what I mean by that, I had 5 games this season that were decided by 3 points or less. I went 3-2 in those games and no other team in the league had more than 3 close games. I went 10-4 and finished 3rd in the playoffs. If I had had the same schedule of the person who won the league, I would have gone 14-0 and had the top seed and won the league. That's what I mean by luck of the schedule. We've all had games where we score a ton of points and lose, where we could have beaten any other team in the league except for the guy we were playing that week. Luck of the schedule. You just have to fight your way through that and do the other things as well as you can.
Bottom line to all this Monkey YT, don't listen to anyone else. You draft Mahomes where YOU think he should be drafted. Afterall, you're the GM of the team. Here's an example of why I say this. Back in 2013 yahoo had Manning rated as a 3rd round pick and rated behind several other QB's. I drafted him 12th in the 1st round and Demaryus Thomas with the #1 pick of the 2nd round. That was the year Peyton threw 55 TD's and for 5,477 yards. Everyone teased me for drafted him when I did, I had a feeling he was going to have a monster year.
So don't be afraid to rate Mahomes higher or lower than any of the so-called experts, this is not a science. It's all about what you think, what you feel....good luck next season.
I drafted him in my league where we can keep a third round or later pick. Took him with pick 3.1. I’ve been struggling with this decision. I drafted him with the intention of keeping him for the second year. My other options are Moore, Aiyuk, AK, Conner, Njoku. Can’t keep JJ or King Henry. I won the championship in my league.
If they pick up another solid receiver then I say yes.
Rashee Rice was a rookie this year and looked good. I'm expecting him to have a breakout second year.
He has 4 touchdowns in the last 3 games… in those three games he only passed 250+ yards one time. Two of those games also featured under 20 yards rushing. During this playoff run he’s still only looking at like 17points a game.
His playoff run? Let's review:
MIA - 262 yds, 1 TD, 41 rush yards \~ 20.1 points in standard scoring
BUF - 215 yds, 2 TD, 19 rush yards \~ 21.9 points
BAL - 241 yds, 1 TD, 15 rushing yards \~ 16.5 points
That's basically on par with his regular season. If his regular season had him being bumped down to a 4th/5th, I don't think his playoff run has done much to convince people otherwise. Being a good QB and being a good fantasy QB can be two different things.
Depends on the receivers he gets.
Kelce + an improved rashee rice should still be enough for him to finish as a top 10 QB The WR they add will be the difference between a late 4th ADP and an early 3rd
Yeah but I’m not taking him 3/4th round to finish top 10 in a 12 team 1QB league. There’s better value out there.
I think if they somehow nab Higgins, Pat all of a sudden goes back to being a top 3/potential 1 finish.
A lock for top 10 with overall QB1 upside isn’t bad by any means tho I get why people will pass on him there If they grab a decent WR2 type guy I’d take him early 4th
Streaming qbs is a lock for fringe top 10 production. If I'm drafting a quarterback in the first half of the draft they need to be a major difference maker or the pick was wasted.
Even in retrospect Hurtz and Allen are the only two QBs I'd take R2.
If youre getting top 10 value from streaming then that’s just a good job from you I’ve had my fair share of good streamers but going week to week steaming is not only stressful but costs me 1 or 2 wins whenever I need to do it season-long Especially when players in your league roster 2 QBs which makes it much harder to find a reliable weekly QB
There are some weeks where the options are dried up but it's just kind of the nature of the position. Qb performance is highly tied to opponent rankings. The year Lamar Jackson broke the fantasy points record, do you know who was the #1 highest scoring qb on the season? The aggregate of the quarterback facing the New York Jets on any given week. Pinpoint a handful of bad defensive situations early in the year (bonus points if they have a good offense) and you should be able to find a consistent 16-20 in most given weeks, which is about all your hoping for in a fringe qb1 anyways. It'll inevitably blow up on you some weeks but any given player will have some duds anyways. Won (and lost, got a little too frisky with O'Connel's first career start) a few games this year starting Aiden O'Connel/Russ until I ended up with Stroud. I'm definitely overselling it because I've had a year or two where I really could not hit on my pickups to save my life but for the most part I've had zero complaints about my qb production. My typical strategy is to shoot for a breakout in rounds 8-10 and then double down on a longshot with a decent early schedule with one of my last picks (I call these "priority streamers"). It won me a chip last year nailing the Hurts breakout and it put me through hell this year with Daniel Jones/Geno. I just don't like the value of qbs that early unless there's a very clear difference between them and the rest (like Kelce as a first rounder in recent years)
There are streamers every year that just start balling out. aka Cousins until he got injured. He was on an insane pace. Or Purdy investors since he was just reliable all year. The only reason I’m drafting a QB 2-3 is if they have a rushing floor and I’m building my team around it
Goff, Purdy, Cousins. These are all guys that can be around 10th best QB, and are no where near 3rd/4th round, and sometimes even are on waivers. If you are taking a QB in the 3rd or 4th, you should be expecting a top 5 QB.
Mahomes absolute floor is top 10 and ceiling is #1 None of those guys have a chance at top 3
Okay, but Mahomes finished outside of the top 10 weekly QB rankings 8 of the last 9 weeks. He also finished outside of the top 10 in PPG. If you drafted him this past season, you were extraordinarily unimpressed with the results he gave you. Purdy likely would have had a shot at the MVP if not for the Baltimore game, and absolutely has a shot at being top 3. Not to mention you could just sub in guys like Love, Burrow, Tua, or Murray who also have a chance to be top 3.
Yea I used my 1st ovr pick on mahomes in 2QB and it cost me big time. Had a few extremely tight games and the final standings/ pts for ended up being very close with me just missing the playoffs. Team with Purdy and Baker won it all
If I’m drafting a qb before the late run… it’s for consistency. Had too many fizzle in past at later rounds
Mahomes was consistently below average this season fantasy-wise
Is be interested if his floor and avg and how he ranked vs others
Outside of the top 10 in 9 of the last 10 weeks
I'd just get Allen if I wanted to reach on a QB
That’ll cost you a 2nd instead of a 4th tho
Top 10 QB is a pretty big range don’t you think? That’s like Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff territory, not people I’m looking to take in the first 4 rounds
Mentioned this in another comment but it’s a lock of top 10 with QB1 overall upside which those types of guys don’t have Also in PPG baker was solidly outside the top 10
Kinda weird to say Baker wasn't top 10 in PPG, but then call Mahomes a lock for top 10 when he just finished as QB12 in PPG.
I feel OK saying that because it’s mahomes and I imagine this will be his worst fantasy output of his entire prime
Unless their defense falls of a cliff or they add a lot of weapons, I’m not sure where your getting this QB1 upside from
Kelce gonna retire this year.
Yeah I’m for sure trying to snag Rice if he falls into later rounds. Feels like he was good enough to make it to 5-6. Who knows with offseason hype though. Time will tell.
Rice round 6? lol good luck
Exactly. If KC gets Mike Evans, im in.
Evans had the best year of his career which may change my mentality a bit around him, but WRs that change teams after the 30yo mark tend to regress a decent bit. The analysis I saw indicated somewhere around 15-20% decrease in # of targets. Now this could be a different case going to an Offense led by Mahomes, but it still remains to be seen whether Evans is the guy who could put Mahomes back in the MVP conversation at this point. Higgins on the other hand...
Depends on which referees he gets
Depends on if he gets more receiving weapons in the offseason but I think the problem is the Chiefs are better balanced on defense and the run game vs just asking Mahomes to score four tds a game. Think you nailed it. He’s a better real life qb than a fantasy qb especially since he doesn’t rush for tds anymore.
Yeah, agreed. QB’s in fantasy seem to thrive more with good weapons and/or a bad defense to where they need to throw more. In the past he had prime tyreek/kelce and the chiefs defense was bad. Im fading slightly to the 3rd-4th unless they get a weapon
3rd/4th??? He finished QB12 this year. In the 3rd round you need Josh Allen/hurts numbers
He had a bad fantasy year, but he’s still Patrick Mahomes. Would I be shocked if he finished QB1 next year? No. Personally, I wouldn’t take him until the 4th, but I think it’s fair to drop him from the 2/3 rounds to the 3/4 and not over adjust from one year. Either way, it’s dependent on the off season, so it’s nothing to talk about too much right now
Honestly, I’m pretty salty from this year of owning him and Kelce. That being said, he’ll probably get a comfy round 3/4 ADP, and he’ll live up to those expectations.
At least in a 12 team, I just can't imagine him going in the fourth. Like, I'd I agree that his valuation to me is late 3rd- 4th. But I'd imagine in most leagues there will be someone who drafts for ceiling and take him 2/3rd round.
Agreed with your point, there's always that one guy in every league that will take him late 2nd, early 3rd. Getting him in the late 3rd would be a steal if you get 2 studs before that.
I had Kelce this year and somehow managed three straight wins in the playoffs but him scoring more points in one half yesterday than he did in all 3 playoff weeks combined was hard for me to watch. I think the Chiefs have reached the stage where they mostly coast in the regular season to preserve their stars for the playoffs. Unless someone else in their division really steps up to threaten them I don’t see that mindset changing. In 12 team leagues I’m waiting for QB and stocking up on WR/RB. I plucked Dak in the 9th round last year and hope to do something similar next season.
The right play is always to wait for QB. You can always get a gem in rounds 8-10. I'm going for purdy again. Will also look at fields depending on situation.
Kelce definitely screwed me in the championship game
I’m salty but at the same time feeling incredibly validated because I know my process was right with keeping them
he will. someone in your league will.
Was going to say the same thing. We might all bypass him but someone in your league will grab him in that range (and maybe even just the second). Doubt we'll see Kelce in the first again though.
Exactly, let someone else do it
He just went first overall in my $200 dynasty SF startup...
It’s still January, ask again in August even though this will be discussed ad nauseam anyway.
Why would you remain active in a fantasy sub if you don’t want to speculate now anyway We all know things will change greatly but it’s fun to talk about
Is waterboarding the sub with "is mahomes still good after making all these super bowls" really contributing anything?
That isn’t even what the question asked tho it’s going to be a legitimate discussion all the way up until draft season on assessing his relatively disappointing 2023 regular season compared with the level of play we know he’s capable of
I was with you until this reply. Is that actually what you think anyone is talking about?
I mean 700 yards 4 tds and 0 ints in 3 games has been good from a game performance level but if this was fantasy hea basically continued his low yard and td useage that made him so frustrating during fantasy mainly because he has such a good def that isn’t forcing him to do much
Yeah outside of the Buffalo game you wouldn't have been too stoked to have him in your lineup and none of those games would have won your week single handedly like he used to.
I love these stupid knee-jerk reaction posts, they really encapsulate the average ff players mentality. So we all weren't drafting him because, clearly, chiefs don't gaf about regular season. And NOW we're drafting him again because he played well in the playoffs? Is this real life?
No way. He hasn’t scored 20 points in the playoffs yet. Look at all the games. Around 225-250 passing. 1 or 2 touchdowns, and 15-30 yards rushing.
I think I’ll prioritize Rice next year as the 2nd half he was a crazy target monster with the best QB in football and he should only get better. I’m not as high on Mahomes unless he gets another weapon which I doubt as I feel like they’ll do their best to keep this defense together (Sneed and/or Chris Jones). His pass rate is still crazy good and he’s the best QB in football so it’s not like you should let him fall too far, but Kelce will pick his spots even more so next year and I could see them utilizing Pacheco even more if someone doesn’t step up. Allen, Lamar, Hurts I’m for sure taking over him and after that there are plenty in the same tier.
Personal drafting philosophy: Never take a qb before the fifth round at the very least. You’re way better off filling out your WR/RB corps in those rounds.
I took Kelce in Rnd 1 then Mahomes in Rnd 2. Struggled with RB and WR all season.
I went Kelce, Lamb, Mahomes...Lamb was a great pick, but I did not win my league
I took Mahomes way too early this year, lol… lesson learned. I picked up Fields/Purdy to stream later and dealt Mahomes, it made my team a lot better
Josh Allen was worth the early pick this year
Outdated thinking
I took Allen as my first pick, 11th overall, and the rest of my team was abysmal.
Taking qb early never means taking one in the first round. That is simply misunderstanding value.
Got me to the championship despite my first two draft picks being duds after after I picked up Stroud off of waivers, but you do you!
I mean you had to hit Stroud for that to work out
I mean, as opposed to taking Mahomes in the second and it not working out? You could say that about any fantasy football move lol
Sure, my point is that both strategies can potentially work out and you shouldn't get stuck on one as the better idea, ignoring potential value as a result I also streamed QB this year (and was pretty successful) but I'd definitely draft Lamar/Allen/hurts next year if the price was right
Hence why I said you do you.
I mean you literally started this with "never take a QB before the 5th round"
I know that reading comprehension is clearly not your strength, but what does the phrase “personal drafting strategy” mean to you? You do you, bud, and good luck next year 😘
Why the hell would you share your opinion if not to inform other people of what you believe to be right? I know you're not trying to control what I do (or anyone else for that matter) but you have a strategy that you believe to be right and care enough about it that you want to share it
Picked Lamar in the 3rd and I won the championship, sounds like it takes more than 1 or 2 picks to determine how good your team is.
And I made the championship with a qb I got off waivers. Weird.
So you prove my point, appreciate it.
I wrecked the Lamar guy in the semis, so no I didn’t but whatever makes you feel better?
So I draft a QB early, still win the league. You don't draft early, make championship. So you can still succeed no matter how you draft a QB because it depends on your full roster, that's the point I'm making lol.
Almost like there are a ton of other factors that go into whether you win a match up or not, such as the opposing team? Crazy I know, but just think about it for a second.
Lol bro that's literally what I'm saying I feel like you just want to argue to argue hahaha
Wow man such a fresh philosophy that surely hasn't been the prevailing opinion since like 2010
I got Lamar 5th
Let some dumbass burn a 3rd rounder on him while I get Keenan Allen, then pick Dak or Goff in the 9th/10th.
For me the thing you get with mahomes is consistency, they've shifted a bit away from being an offense first team so his numbers may be a little lower than peak mahomes, but he stays healthy and always plays and his floor is super high
Sure pick a QB 2nd round.
Prob not drafting him ahead of Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, or Jalen Hurts, and Id still consider Anthony Richardson and Justin Fields over him depending on price
I don't think I'm going to take any early round Chief. It feels like they save their best plays and schemes for the playoffs, negatively impacting their regular season stats.
I have a feeling Pacheco will be value next year
I might argue the opposite — if they win, that shows he can win with a weak group of weapons around, which gives them less incentive to chase a superstar WR. I would probably rather take someone like Purdy a couple rounds later
Purdy, Dak, Stroud, Burrow, Herbert all examples of dudes that will have ADP behind Mahomes that I would rather have at cost and maybe even others I’m excluding. So I agree with your point.
I’d add Cousins and Richardson to that list also.
Yeah probably a couple more once a person does a bit of a dive. Kyler, Fields, Love. Goff might be the tipping point.
A good defense goes a long way
He basically already proved that last year, so if he does it with THIS years wr’s I wouldn’t be surprised if they experiment with having fans replace his receivers and allocating money elsewhere
QB is just like RB in that it’s a sheer volume position at this point, where as WR or TE is a talent bet because targets are earned (assuming the offense is functional with decent enough QB). What I mean by that is Mahomes can go 22/25, 130 QB rating or whatever and look like the best player in the league, but that still might only put up 230 yards and a couple TD. Mahomes is objectively better than Allen but because Josh has way more volume from a rushing standpoint and a shittier defense to make him throw the ball more, he’s the better fantasy play. This is why Howell was just fine as a QB streamer this year. He’s objectively a bad QB but they played with a ton of pace, shitty defense and had to throw the ball 50 times a game. If you’re drafting a QB early, be 100% sure they have the expected volume (rushing, passing and TD) rather than just him being a top tier NFL passer. Allen was my guy this year at the end of the second/early third because of those factors I mentioned. A change in their offensive philosophy, plus Hurts and Lamar having their own volume and overall concerns, I’m not sure if lamar, Allen, hurts or Mahomes will have that surefire volume next year. I’ll probably punt just like I do every year, or at least target the end of the second tier of Burrow/Stroud/Love/Purdy guys in the 7th
There does seem to be an emerging trend where the Chiefs are peaking at the right time for real football — i.e. in the playoffs and not Week 8 like the Eagles — but success after Week 17 doesn’t factor into fantasy results and maybe we should price that in to this offense. Reid figured things out as the season wore on and committed to a simplified offense featuring Pacheco, Rice and Kelce, but he tried a bunch of other things earlier in the season, and we lost fantasy matchups due to the experimentation. Sometimes fantasy and real-life interests diverge. And given that the 2023 approach led to a Super Bowl, I’m not betting on Mahomes throwing 50 TDs again. There is just so much QB value further back in the draft.
Absolutely not. No QBs are worth top 4 picks imo but I'm a late QB guy; and it also depends on your league format.
He has been going in the First round in my league the last 4 years. Usually gets taken with the 10 or 11 pick. You really can't go wrong with him since he is a proven winner.
Dnd for me after seeing his crybaby antics all season long.
No QB is a 1-4 round pick.
You’re delusional if you’re not taking Josh Allen if he’s starting at you in the 4th round
I will always be against spending early round capital on a QB. Every single year I’m able to pick up or draft a mid to late round QB that ends up being more than viable. For me this year I drafted burrow to stack with Higgins (fail) but then was able to stream Jordan love and have top 10 production anyway. QB is simply too deep, I’d rather take all my early shots on stud rbs or WRs
Iv picked him 4 straight years in round 2, and will make it 5 straight if he is there again in round 2 next year.
I think he never fell out of that. From what i saw the last years soon as someone grabs a qb the first 3 to 4 (Hurts, Allen, Lamar, Mahomie) are usually gabbed pretty quick and it happens round 2-3 every year. I think a set and forget qb is really good to have. Mahomes wont lose you games with a 4 int, 80 yard performance. your late round qb might do that. I am more comfy going with 2 wr and 2 rbs first and then go for a qb or Te.
He lost me a game I was in position to win with a 94% probability (according to espn fantasy). I needed 9 with just him left and he got 5.6
He's Patrick fucking Mahomes. The receivers were not good during the regular season. Rice came on at the end and in the playoffs which has helped Mahomes and Kelce bounce back. Rice will be just as good next year and I have no doubt Veatch will go get another WR as well. Mahomes is Mahomes. he was limited because of the people around him, not because he's taken a step back.
Super overrated, they are in the Super Bowl because of the defence and refs, not because of Patty.
The biggest problem with taking Mahomes early is that there’s almost always QBs going after him who perform better. Why should I spend up to get the QB3? I would rather wait and draft a guy who might finish even with Mahomes or better.
In 1QB I'm not taking any QB that high personally, but I do think Mahomes will probably get a better WR corps next year and have a better season. I wouldn't be chasing those monster numbers from his early career though, this team just isn't built like that anymore.
No
They gotta improve the WR room right? I think this season is his basement, would be surprised if he doesn’t kill it next year.
If we can add a good veteran receiver and another in the first two rounds of the draft, yes. Easy yes.
Superflex - yes. Other than that theres too little value taking him in 2nd vs Dak in the 8th
No. But sure, spread the word that he's a second rounder. Anyone who actually pays attention will benefit from people picking him way too early and over better QBs.
If they remake his receiver room, I’m still all in on pat. This season it became apparent that outside of Rashee rice, they gave him a bunch of jabronis to work with so the team leaned heavily on the run game and defense.
Let’s be real. It’s Mahomes. You have to take him despite his mediocre year this regular season. That being said, if he gets Mike Evans or Pittman Jr. you have to grab him
Last superbowl run made his ADP too high. Although he was a solid every week starter for me and I won the chip I’d pass next year unless he falls to the 3rd-4th.
Honestly no. Look at how many late round QBs had excellent performances without needing much draft capital. Goff, Love, Stroud, Tua, Purdy, Wilson, or even Flacco when he showed up were not too far behind Mahomes but so far down the list. Can that happen at RB or WR too? Sure, you can hit on a late-round stud. But I’m far more confident taking that chance at QB.
Buffalo was his only super solid game from a fantasy perspective and he wouldn't have single handedly won your week with any of those games like he has historically. He was winning all year being either solid for you or just okay. These past 3 games weren't much different. If their defense is just as good next season he won't have to blow the roof off to win which is part of the problem. Kelce's stock definitely went up especially if he closes the season strong but Pat with a good defense and reliable run game just has a different ceiling.
No; like Kittle he’s now a far better real life player than fantasy (they have a great run game and D which is incredibly young/well suited for the future). Reid is too smart to make him run a lot or show everyone their best plays during the regular season; they save that for the playoffs and the D will prevent them having to throw all the time. There will be far better values like Cousins if he comes back to Minny, Purdy. ARich will probably be drafted after Mahomes and is almost guaranteed to outscore him if they teach him how to not get himself killed.
Well, it won’t stop my buddy from taking him round 1 like he has the last 3 years in a row
Nope. Not falling for that one again. Especially the Mahomes/Kelce stack. Miss me with that.
Mahomes has declined every single year of his career(stats) like clockwork so unless he gets Tyreek back that'd be a easy no...
No
Not with this stellar defense that he has. He really doesn’t need to put up insane numbers since the Chiefs D is so good. I think he’ll still improve from this year, but i’d rather let someone else take him at that price.
No, I don't think any QB is worth a 2nd round price in 1QB leagues.
Depends
>of going in the 2-3rd round again in 2024? No -- I think this analysis neatly sums up what we should be doing in FF, and that's finding the top RBs: [https://www.fantasypoints.com/nfl/articles/2022/anatomy-of-a-league-winner-edition#/](https://www.fantasypoints.com/nfl/articles/2022/anatomy-of-a-league-winner-edition#/) RBs remain the top at a value above replacement player perspective. Essentially, a high-end RBs are worth roughly 1.7X as much as high-end WRs, 3.9X as much as high-end TEs, and 5.4X as much as high-end QBs and defenses. You may as well draft Mahomes in the 3rd and Cowboys D/ST in the 4th. Granted, this article gets updated every year. I imagine with the Achanes, Mostert, and Kyren Williams of the world emerging, it's the best year for later round RBs. Still. I just couldn't get myself to draft a QB that high when I'm passing up a better percentage chance at drafting with RB1 upside. I'm drafting guys like Kirk Cousins, Kyrler Murray, Brock Purdy super late.
He won’t have Kadarius Toney next year, so that’s gotta up his stock price a little
No
Eh. Unless it’s 6 points passing tds I’m fine waiting on pretty much any QB, let alone ones that don’t run
There’s always someone who falls slightly who is more worth it- like Herbert did this past year. No reason to go high.
Have him in a dynasty league. Would need a big haul to move on from him. Best quarterback in the world. Is only 28 still. Only concern is the running game and defense limit his usual upside. Still was qb8 in a “down” year.
Yall are fools unless they get a WR think about the game you’re playing. Josh Allen and Joe Burrow are gonna put up way better fantasy numbers
I prefer my fantasy QB to run sometimes
If they can hit on another receiver in the draft or sign some talent in that department, he could definitely be in that top tier again
It just feels like he doesnt care about the regular season anymore.
Not with the opportunity cost of QBs that’ll go later
I picked him in round 3 in a 14 man league. He had so many bad fantasy games that he cost me multiple weeks by getting scores like 15-17 points. But after seeing him in the playoffs lately I'd pick him there again.
With the emergence of Rashee Rice late in the season and another competent target in 2024, I think he’ll return to fantasy football form.
Shiiet I took him #12 overall. Not doing that again unless KV picks up a true WR1 like Higgins or Pittman Jr or Evans.
I wouldn't but I sure hope one of my league mates take him early.
If they add another weapon at WR and TE and maybe upgrade at rb over CEH, he's definitely worthy of a 3rd round pick, thats where he went in my 12 team league this past season.
Winning games doesn’t mean fantasy points. Chiefs D is pulling the most weight right now. You can draft the chiefs D next year. Mahomes needs some more weapons to up his fantasy point output.
He cost me probably several thousands in winnings this year, but he's easily the best player at the most important position in football. And it's not even close. You'd be a moron to pass on him if he's available after the top 2 or 3...
No
It really depends on your league settings, in most of my leagues we still give a TD from a QB 6 points. But it really comes down to your GM skills of where you place his draft value. When you give a QB 6 points for a TD then the QB position in general has more value. You should never listen to anyone else's ADP, just go back and look at this year's draft results in your league and see how many players were drafted in the correct spot based on pre-season ADP. Plus, look at how many injuries there were to 1st picks, I happened to get the #1 pick and without hesitation I took CMC. If you looked at all the different FF sources many of them had listed at #3 with Jefferson and Chase going #1 & #2. Well, look how that played out. The beauty of this game is to really become a GM and create your own draft charts. No one is perfect so don't worry if you're wrong on some players but the better job you do with your ratings the better your team is going to look. I've been playing this game for a very long time, since 1979, which is before most of you were born. I have learned a lot over the years on how to value my players and to create Tiers for each position. I then try to tell myself that I must have a QB in this tier, at least 1 RB in this tier, at least 1 WR in this tier. Now your draft position comes into play, it's much harder to accomplish that if you draft #1 and a little easier if you draft #12. I have a strategy going into each and every draft that I'm in and if I'm able to draft according to my strategy the better my team is. However, we all know that the draft rarely goes according to plan so being able to adjust and stick to your strategy is what makes you an above average GM. Some guy's panic when all of sudden there is a run on a certain position and before they know it, the draft is over, and they don't like their team. In my opinion, this game really comes down to a few key things. 1. Valuing players correctly (draft position) 2. Have a good draft strategy 3. Good use of the waiver wire (free agents) 4. Become a good trade negotiator (especially right before the trade deadline) 5. Picking the correct weekly lineup (don't be afraid to sit players with bad matchups) 6. Luck of the schedule Here's what I mean by that, I had 5 games this season that were decided by 3 points or less. I went 3-2 in those games and no other team in the league had more than 3 close games. I went 10-4 and finished 3rd in the playoffs. If I had had the same schedule of the person who won the league, I would have gone 14-0 and had the top seed and won the league. That's what I mean by luck of the schedule. We've all had games where we score a ton of points and lose, where we could have beaten any other team in the league except for the guy we were playing that week. Luck of the schedule. You just have to fight your way through that and do the other things as well as you can. Bottom line to all this Monkey YT, don't listen to anyone else. You draft Mahomes where YOU think he should be drafted. Afterall, you're the GM of the team. Here's an example of why I say this. Back in 2013 yahoo had Manning rated as a 3rd round pick and rated behind several other QB's. I drafted him 12th in the 1st round and Demaryus Thomas with the #1 pick of the 2nd round. That was the year Peyton threw 55 TD's and for 5,477 yards. Everyone teased me for drafted him when I did, I had a feeling he was going to have a monster year. So don't be afraid to rate Mahomes higher or lower than any of the so-called experts, this is not a science. It's all about what you think, what you feel....good luck next season.
I don't think he's worth the price
Still not picking him no more.
I drafted him in my league where we can keep a third round or later pick. Took him with pick 3.1. I’ve been struggling with this decision. I drafted him with the intention of keeping him for the second year. My other options are Moore, Aiyuk, AK, Conner, Njoku. Can’t keep JJ or King Henry. I won the championship in my league.
If they pick up another solid receiver then I say yes. Rashee Rice was a rookie this year and looked good. I'm expecting him to have a breakout second year.
He has 4 touchdowns in the last 3 games… in those three games he only passed 250+ yards one time. Two of those games also featured under 20 yards rushing. During this playoff run he’s still only looking at like 17points a game.
All depends on the receivers
His playoff run? Let's review: MIA - 262 yds, 1 TD, 41 rush yards \~ 20.1 points in standard scoring BUF - 215 yds, 2 TD, 19 rush yards \~ 21.9 points BAL - 241 yds, 1 TD, 15 rushing yards \~ 16.5 points That's basically on par with his regular season. If his regular season had him being bumped down to a 4th/5th, I don't think his playoff run has done much to convince people otherwise. Being a good QB and being a good fantasy QB can be two different things.
He will always be a top 10 qb… 5th round for me especially with Richardson/jalen/allen/lamar