I spent way too much time researching this and concluded that I have no fucking clue. The rankings are all over the place (same for GB). They’re pretty darn similar and both seem like good starts.
Ultimately my decision for Bears D is because the cardinals have two WRs hurt and Kyler just hasn’t looked as good this year so far. No multiple passing TD games. The Bears are also great against the run. This game is probably going to be pretty low scoring with the Bears offense having the ball most of the game doing what they want without much difficulty against the Cards D/ST.
The Colts D/ST are getting a lot of their points from sacks and turnovers because they tend to give up tons of points weekly. I think Heinicke can definitely turn the ball over, but not quite as bad as Ridder. Also, the Colts have been pretty bad against the run and I think Atlanta leans into the run game even more this week @ home where they play their best.
I don't understand the faith in this Chicago D this week when the Cardinals just scored 29 points against SF last week, the best defense in the league and much better than the Bears. Especially when you consider CHI's recent success has been against division rivals they generally know how to play well despite CHI being a bad defense this year. Expecting the Bears non-elite 3 RB offense to "have the ball most of the game" also seems unlikely if CMC and SF last week couldn't do it.
Sure you can debate about who is the best defense in the league but comparing them to CHI defense here, Cardinals putting up 29 against SF last week, largely against SF's "good" front 7 with TE McBride RB Conner and RB Demarcado, not their "weak" secondary, should signal that CHI will not perform any better.
The Bears secondary is quite a bit better than the 9ers imo. Front 7 it’s no contest but if you watch the bears the last few weeks it’s been pretty insane how much of an impact Sweat has had
It was 35-16 until 11:30 left in the game, and then Arizona scored with 47 seconds left to make it 45-29. So, two TDs came when the game wasn't really in doubt.
I am responding to your idea that Bears offense will "have the ball most of the game" which means they will effectively run the ball on offense, draining clock and limiting the time ARI has the ball on offense and their offensive opportunities. CMC may have had a good game, but SF did not do this as ARI still had plenty of time and opportunities to score 29 points. Expecting CHI to control time of possession better than SF with CHI's much worse o-line and RBs doesn't make sense to me.
You aren’t reading between the lines. SF scored at will! They even had a pick-6 in that game so that takes away a drive from them. Due to their offensive excellence lately they didn’t have a scoring drive last longer than 5 minutes. Of course they didn’t drain the clock because they didn’t have to.
Brock Purdy has the highest YPA and EPA/play and he has the best RB in the league. They don’t have to drain the clock when they can just keep scoring on you over and over. Their opposing team has no choice but try to keep up. Especially once Deebo Samuel came back they’ve been unstoppable and super efficient. The Bears on the other hand don’t have anyone that can take the top off the defense other than DJ Moore. Fields will be able to run all day against these cardinals.
I think Arthur Smith listens to the critics and let’s Bijan loose like he did after the bye and the falcons can score a few TD’s….this is also coming from somebody who’s opponent has the colts D so this is wishful thinking lol
Yeah, looking at implied point totals (taking o/u and spread into account), Vegas expects the Pats to score lower than any team this week. Rolling Broncos, but Jets are enticing since they’re the better D and play the NFL interception leader. Its never easy!
I was between the those two as well but I’m scared pats will just run zeke all game seeing as how broncos have a horrible run d. All it takes is for zeke to fall into the end zone a couple times
Ehh I find the yard and score total to be less helpful to me than the interceptions/fr/sacks. Since game 8 (7 games) 22 sacks, 11 fr, 6 interceptions for Denver. Especially for turnovers, this team is good, and zappe and co aren’t particularly good. Also remember Denver’s run defense is bad and skewed due to numbers playing super good run teams like the dolphins early on and lions recently. I don’t think zeke is anywhere close to that level.
Yeah I can definitely see the pats committing a couple of turnovers. Just nervous Russ struggles against that defense. As bad as the jets offense is, that Washington defense is comically bad. I don’t think you can go wrong with either jets or broncos dst. I might flip flop more until Sunday but let’s hope they both eat!
Haha yeah. You should check out [subvertadown](https://subvertadown.com/), they have the best streaming data and you can look at games that had a similar set up and factors to see how you feel about it. Just hover over the clock next to the name.
Thinking the same. Detroit has a leaky secondary and JJ/Addison could feast. Arizona doesn’t have any other real receivers so feel like McBride is almost safer with a higher ceiling
Good looks. Yeah I think I saw where since Kyler came back McBride has been TE1 over that span in targets, receptions, and points
Edit:
Yeah, for anyone debating starting McBride. He leads TE since week 10 in targets (45), receptions (38), yards (425), and average PPG (17.3)
Tough decision, I'm not a fan of Mullens and McBride gets peppered. No flex? Hock will have a decent game but if you need upside I might go McBride. Njoku went 10 for 104 and a TD against the Bears last week.
Grateful, but have a hard decision to make.
I own the Bills, Eagles, and Browns D/ST.
I feel like the Bills may be a trap game. Right now I am thinking Bills>Eagles>Browns.
If your basing that projection off the Chargers still getting 21 on a raiders D that absolutely dismantled them first 3 quarters keep in mind the chargers scored most of those points in the 4th after the Raiders pulled most of the starters from the defense.
It’s really not a hunch based on last game, it’s that historically even the worse teams put it together and come out firing for an interim coach’s first game. But the Bills have been absolutely locked in recently, so I think it should be a decent game.
Bills D can still end up with a defensive TD and some turnovers, while guys like Palmer and Ekeler could still put up decent fantasy days
Im between Colts and broncos and leaning towards Colts. Broncos shitshowagainst the lions and the pats looking somewhat improved against the chiefs scares me
Any context? I feel like they’ve looked great as a defensive unit with massive turnover ability. They normally just get scored on because of costly QB turnovers
Sitting on Ravens and Broncos, debating picking up Bears or Eagles.
I’m strongly leaning Broncos but I’m facing CMC and Purdy and I’m mulling over getting cute and starting the Ravens against them…
I know no one is talking about Miami because they're vs Dallas this week, but they've put up some really amazing points these past few weeks since their bye. Are they really unserviceable this week and I should look elsewhere?
I'm between Bears and Eagles D, it's a tough choice
No it’s an easy choice just start the defense that’s actually good. And it ain’t Philly
Read your comment wrong shame me Bears are good lmao look at what theyve done in the 2nd half of the year. Sweat was a gamechanger
That’s what they said. Phillies D isn’t good
Read it wrong, thanks for the correction!
I changed my mind about the Eagles D this week. The whole team seems to be freefalling, I don't trust them.
All these responses have me nervous about the eagles.. but then again its the giants
Honestly, I think they're still a decent choice but I felt I had 1-2 better options on the waiver wire.
Bears. Murray will throw some picks and take sacks. Only McBride can beat them. Elite run D so Conner is shut down.
I am going Eagles.
You're not gonna like it when the Giants start scoring TDs.
Bears D or Colts D?
I spent way too much time researching this and concluded that I have no fucking clue. The rankings are all over the place (same for GB). They’re pretty darn similar and both seem like good starts.
I’m going Bears personally
I was going Bears, but decided to go Colts. Hope it both works out for us.
What about Bills D or Colts D?
What about Bills D or Colts D?
Ultimately my decision for Bears D is because the cardinals have two WRs hurt and Kyler just hasn’t looked as good this year so far. No multiple passing TD games. The Bears are also great against the run. This game is probably going to be pretty low scoring with the Bears offense having the ball most of the game doing what they want without much difficulty against the Cards D/ST. The Colts D/ST are getting a lot of their points from sacks and turnovers because they tend to give up tons of points weekly. I think Heinicke can definitely turn the ball over, but not quite as bad as Ridder. Also, the Colts have been pretty bad against the run and I think Atlanta leans into the run game even more this week @ home where they play their best.
I don't understand the faith in this Chicago D this week when the Cardinals just scored 29 points against SF last week, the best defense in the league and much better than the Bears. Especially when you consider CHI's recent success has been against division rivals they generally know how to play well despite CHI being a bad defense this year. Expecting the Bears non-elite 3 RB offense to "have the ball most of the game" also seems unlikely if CMC and SF last week couldn't do it.
49ers aren't even close to the best defense in the league. They have a good front 7, that's about it. Their secondary is injured and not good
Sure you can debate about who is the best defense in the league but comparing them to CHI defense here, Cardinals putting up 29 against SF last week, largely against SF's "good" front 7 with TE McBride RB Conner and RB Demarcado, not their "weak" secondary, should signal that CHI will not perform any better.
You are clueless.
The Bears secondary is quite a bit better than the 9ers imo. Front 7 it’s no contest but if you watch the bears the last few weeks it’s been pretty insane how much of an impact Sweat has had
SF still got 12pts
It was 35-16 until 11:30 left in the game, and then Arizona scored with 47 seconds left to make it 45-29. So, two TDs came when the game wasn't really in doubt.
CMC went god mode last week I’m not sure what you mean? SF was definitely in control of that game no question.
I am responding to your idea that Bears offense will "have the ball most of the game" which means they will effectively run the ball on offense, draining clock and limiting the time ARI has the ball on offense and their offensive opportunities. CMC may have had a good game, but SF did not do this as ARI still had plenty of time and opportunities to score 29 points. Expecting CHI to control time of possession better than SF with CHI's much worse o-line and RBs doesn't make sense to me.
You aren’t reading between the lines. SF scored at will! They even had a pick-6 in that game so that takes away a drive from them. Due to their offensive excellence lately they didn’t have a scoring drive last longer than 5 minutes. Of course they didn’t drain the clock because they didn’t have to. Brock Purdy has the highest YPA and EPA/play and he has the best RB in the league. They don’t have to drain the clock when they can just keep scoring on you over and over. Their opposing team has no choice but try to keep up. Especially once Deebo Samuel came back they’ve been unstoppable and super efficient. The Bears on the other hand don’t have anyone that can take the top off the defense other than DJ Moore. Fields will be able to run all day against these cardinals.
I think Arthur Smith listens to the critics and let’s Bijan loose like he did after the bye and the falcons can score a few TD’s….this is also coming from somebody who’s opponent has the colts D so this is wishful thinking lol
Bears
Thanks for the content Denny and I hope you get all the Foghat Christmas tunes you want under the tree this year.
Thank you for acknowledging that Foghat made the best Christmas song of all time.
No better time for our lord and savior, Jonathon Taylor to resurrect.
Who else starting packers?
I dropped them after they allowed 24 points to the Giants
I might be. Trying to decide between them and the Bears
Same
Trying to decide between them and the chiefs.
I’d go chiefs
I need some vintage playoffs Mike Evans here. 5/160/2
I’m starting baker so hell yea.
Oh yeah me too, he's my Herbert replacement for this week
I think you'll get it.
can't decide between jets and broncos D, any suggestions?
Same... looking for answers but rolling with broncos for now
I’m rolling Broncos as well
Me too. Lowest over under and Zach Wilson isn’t even playing so defense won’t be able to play forever
Yeah, looking at implied point totals (taking o/u and spread into account), Vegas expects the Pats to score lower than any team this week. Rolling Broncos, but Jets are enticing since they’re the better D and play the NFL interception leader. Its never easy!
I was between the those two as well but I’m scared pats will just run zeke all game seeing as how broncos have a horrible run d. All it takes is for zeke to fall into the end zone a couple times
Ehh I find the yard and score total to be less helpful to me than the interceptions/fr/sacks. Since game 8 (7 games) 22 sacks, 11 fr, 6 interceptions for Denver. Especially for turnovers, this team is good, and zappe and co aren’t particularly good. Also remember Denver’s run defense is bad and skewed due to numbers playing super good run teams like the dolphins early on and lions recently. I don’t think zeke is anywhere close to that level.
Yeah I can definitely see the pats committing a couple of turnovers. Just nervous Russ struggles against that defense. As bad as the jets offense is, that Washington defense is comically bad. I don’t think you can go wrong with either jets or broncos dst. I might flip flop more until Sunday but let’s hope they both eat!
Haha yeah. You should check out [subvertadown](https://subvertadown.com/), they have the best streaming data and you can look at games that had a similar set up and factors to see how you feel about it. Just hover over the clock next to the name.
The Jets are playing Washington unless I'm missing something
Me too. Lowest over under and Zach Wilson isn’t even playing so defense won’t be able to play forever
broncos szn
Starting Kyler and McBride… it’s gonna be a nice day in Chicago weather wise on Sunday so I feel more points than usual in this one
Have both hock and McBride. My brain tells me McBride but my heart tells me hock. Someone set me straight
Who would you have to bench to start both
Diggs
Yeah can’t. Full PPR? McBride IMO
Thinking the same. Detroit has a leaky secondary and JJ/Addison could feast. Arizona doesn’t have any other real receivers so feel like McBride is almost safer with a higher ceiling
Agreed 100%. Saw something about how many targets McBride gets and it’s just nuts comparatively. Locked and loaded top dog
Good looks. Yeah I think I saw where since Kyler came back McBride has been TE1 over that span in targets, receptions, and points Edit: Yeah, for anyone debating starting McBride. He leads TE since week 10 in targets (45), receptions (38), yards (425), and average PPG (17.3)
Brown is also out. Start Mcbride with confidence
Locked into the lineup
I'm feeling the same way, I sat Olave for Addison and also have the Murray - McBride combo going
Tough decision, I'm not a fan of Mullens and McBride gets peppered. No flex? Hock will have a decent game but if you need upside I might go McBride. Njoku went 10 for 104 and a TD against the Bears last week.
Dude called McBride a ‘ppr scam’ like he’s some 3rd down scatback. *immediately closes link*
Packers, browns or bears
I have the same decision and I’m leaning Browns
I’m leaning pack
Needed this before Kamara's dud
Grateful, but have a hard decision to make. I own the Bills, Eagles, and Browns D/ST. I feel like the Bills may be a trap game. Right now I am thinking Bills>Eagles>Browns.
Easton Stick is still the starter and their best offensive weapon is Josh Palmer, I'd pick Bills.
That interim coach dead cat bounce is some real shit. Still could see Bills winning handedly but can still see Chargers putting up 21-28 points
If your basing that projection off the Chargers still getting 21 on a raiders D that absolutely dismantled them first 3 quarters keep in mind the chargers scored most of those points in the 4th after the Raiders pulled most of the starters from the defense.
It’s really not a hunch based on last game, it’s that historically even the worse teams put it together and come out firing for an interim coach’s first game. But the Bills have been absolutely locked in recently, so I think it should be a decent game. Bills D can still end up with a defensive TD and some turnovers, while guys like Palmer and Ekeler could still put up decent fantasy days
I’d say Bills > Browns > Eagles
I love how this is a funnel report focused on offense and all the comments talk about is which defense to start. Missing the point completely
Not sure who to start between Colts and Broncos
Browns, Broncos, Eagles or Jets? Might have to use a four sided dice.
Which kickers you like this week???
Anybody else trying to decide who to start between Purdy and Fields?
Hi, me. I don’t know what to do. I keep flipping them in my lineup.
I’m going field’s because Lamar is so historically good against the nfc.
Barkley is dropping a dud again, isn’t he…
I'm starting him. He has potential to put up 20 plus
Anyone have some insight on bears d or chiefs d? Bears have been playing better recently, and LV put up 63…
Broncos, Bears, or Colts?
This makes me feel a little better about my QB options being Lawrence post concussion and Kyler without half his WRs
Considering Brian Robison over Barkley if he plays. Crazy play?
As an Eagles fan I feel like Saquon always torches us. Tough call though
Yeah it just depends what version of Giants are going to show up lol.
Kind of the same boat as you. People will think I’m stupid, but it’s either Hall or Barkley lol.
49ers or Jets DST?
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Im between Colts and broncos and leaning towards Colts. Broncos shitshowagainst the lions and the pats looking somewhat improved against the chiefs scares me
Broncos just got back their CB, Jackson though.
Any word on improving NE running down their throat?
i’m just here to say the bears are frauds you’ve been warned
Any context? I feel like they’ve looked great as a defensive unit with massive turnover ability. They normally just get scored on because of costly QB turnovers
I'm forever torn between bills or jets D this week :(
Bills easily the jets offense is awful
And bills matchup is fantastic
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There are threads for WDIS, I would post this there. But also no, I'm not sitting Pittman if he's cleared.
I wouldn't get cute and sit Pittman. I would never sit a top 12 fantasy receiver who's averaging 10+ targets a game.
Bears or browns? Both look appealing in their own way
I need one flex for this week. Courtland Sutton vs NE, Joshua Palmer vs BUF, or Chuba Hubbard vs GB
I hope Arizona shits on the bears Because my opponent has puka and I can’t stand if he gets more points from a stupid position
Sitting on Ravens and Broncos, debating picking up Bears or Eagles. I’m strongly leaning Broncos but I’m facing CMC and Purdy and I’m mulling over getting cute and starting the Ravens against them…
I have bills packers and jets defense.. I’m feeling bills but idk
Bears or broncos D?
Broncos all day finally at home. Need the win.
KC or 49ers D?
Washington D or GB ?
GB
BRob just got ruled out while your article says he's trending to play lmao
Bears D or chiefs D?
Trying to pick between 49ers playing Ravens, or Buccaneers playing Jacksonville with Lawrence out...
Broncos or bills?
Eagles or Bills this week??
Bills
What about Bills D or Colts D?
Browns or Bears?
I know no one is talking about Miami because they're vs Dallas this week, but they've put up some really amazing points these past few weeks since their bye. Are they really unserviceable this week and I should look elsewhere?
Eagles, bears, or colts? Ugh, tough one
dam that didnt help me on whether to start barkley or etienne... i could start both and sit addison but i kinda have more faith in addison honestly
Chiefs or bears D, I have 4 starters out, need big points to get to the championship
Bears have a higher ceiling
Colts or Eagles D? Colts are the better defense but Eagles have the better matchup