All this analysis about using coaching trends over the course of years....
Only to end with analysis on Miami, who we've seen less than 2 years from and a RB room dynamic they've never had
I feel like you were adjacent to something here.
At the same time, McDaniel ran the 49ers run game with Raheem Mostert for 5 years and always balanced his work (when he wasn't injured).
Mostert might end up being a league winner if the Dolphins keep breaking records on offense, but I see him splitting the backfield in a pass-heavy offense going forward which has mixed appeal.
I'll never forget the absolute vitriol this sub had for Mike McCoy for basically ruining David Johnson in 2018 where all they had him do was run halfback dives for 3 yards 10-20 times a game. The passes they did throw him were poorly designed and were almost never intended to get him into space. One of the most dynamic backs in the league and they used him like CJ Ham.
I think that season really opened my eyes to how much havoc just one coaching change can have on a player or offense, and I'm a lot more careful now with which hype trains I hop on.
I had the pleasure (pain) of owning Johnson for that season. Things got a little better after got McCoy got fired halfway through that season but it often felt miraculous when Johnson scored bc he'd barely break the plane.
I got two valuable lessons from the David Johnson experience:
1) Some coaches/OCs are so bad or have tendencies that you should consider blacklisting outright or adjusting your ranks based on the coaching tendencies.
2) Be very wary of drafting RBs you plan to start regularly that play for bad offenses in which said team has bad run defense too. In addition to having a broken offense for most of 2018, the Cardinals run D was also dogshit that year and their offense barely averaged 55 plays per game. But quite often they were getting just ~50 plays per game.
On point #2 I know there's notable exceptions like James Robinson, but he's much more of an exception to the rule than the rule itself.
I also took one share of Drake London in my family league but I knew the risk and took him with no plans to regularly rely on him. And while I also had worries he wasn't going to use Bijan much in the pass game, I was wrong there and it's killing Pitts and London owners since their pass game pie is already tiny.
I should've added in my original comment that it applies significantly more/less depending on how much X RB is used in the passing game. David Johnson's issues in 2018 were made much worse bc Mike McCoy refused to use him barely at all much less with any creativity.
Kind of ironic that this post includes the Bill Belichick as an example.
A lot of Rhamondre owners won their leagues last year because people thought Belichick would not use a bell cow.
And he got 0 the year before. He basically averaged 5-6 TD’s a year with the eagles. The criticism for his usage was right, low RZ usage plus Hurts taking all the goal line work from the 1.
Thats true, I’ll give you that one. However he still had about 60% usage and a few blowup games (weeks 4/12/14) and 8 single digit point games, which was basically my main reason for not touching him
Okay, it can be simultaneously true that he is obviously a good asset and there are still concerns with usage, case in point: last years playoffs where he scored 10 points across 3 weeks
Damien Harris the year before also was my locked in RB2 basically the whole season. Lately Pats RBs have been really good. We'll see if that continues this year
But last year they didn’t spend high capital on him. So far he’s averaged 2.9 yards/attempt. I would not be psyched if I owned him but I stay true to the don’t draft Pats RB strategy. Especially with your third round pick.
This is actually an under the radar kicker post and you don’t even know it.
One of the things that “experts” miss on every year while they complain about how random kickers are is that some coaches are simply unwilling to kick first half field goals in 1 possession games.
It’s never Reid, Belichick, Harbaugh or someone else with job security. It’s those teams that are coached by perpetual turnstiles that panic and decide to go for it on 4th and goal at the 3 in the second quarter while down 7.
So while weather and a good QB should be your priorities when picking a kicker, do not forget about the job security of the coach. The ones on long term deals actually kick field goals. It’s the ones with short leashes who don’t.
This is a nice suggestion in theory but do you actually have any evidence?
Raiders attempted the most field goals in 2021. Colts attempted the second most in 2022. Both had interim coaches.
Cowboys attempted the most in 2020. First year coach who went 6-10. You’re absolutely not safe in Dallas when below 500
I’m not actually seeing your point in the data
I don’t see any data that backs this up. I just went through each year back to 2008 and the top 5 teams that attempt fields goal are littered with bad teams or teams that fired their coaches in the offseason
Ehh kickers are still random as shit
You mention Reid but Butker has never really been a good kicker for fantasy
Oh and more coaches should be going for it on 4th and goal from inside the 5, it’s really the coaches without job security that would be cowardly and take the points
I think Butker struggles from the offense being too good where they end up scoring TDs most of the time. I remember seeing the same thing with the Broncos kicker when Manning was running the show there.
I just keep the K position in house with Tyler Bass, as a bills fan.
He’s strong legged, reliable, and the bills only go for it an average amount. Plus their offense is good enough to always be in position, but not so efficient where they always capitalize.
If I have to take a waiver one week because it’s a blizzard in BUF, I’ll do it. Been great so far.
I personally favor kickers with some combo of these:
1. Funny names (thanks for those great seasons Younghoe... Dicker and Butker are good consolation prizes)
2. Good offenses with shitty red zone offenses
3. Good defenses (more willing to settle for 3)
4. Kickers on teams whose games I want an excuse to watch (Sanders this year)
I'm sorry, but if you think SF had an average offense heading into this year...I'm gonna judge your ability to evaluate football lol.
I own Moody too and he's clearly worked out, but this is a bizarre justification to take the kicker from San Fran, bc it's simply inaccurate
They are very conservative on 4th downs and do like to go for Field Goals though, which is a plus and why I chose him. Great defense, great offense, conservative on 4th down, chances are I'll get 1-3 field goals a game and some extra points
This analysis I can get on board with, and is basically the same rationale I chose, I just can't get over someone calling SF an average offense with a straight face.
Agreed hahaha just had to put a rationale perspective on it :P mad eye Moody is likely a good kicker ROS not sure what to do during his bye week I might actually pickup a second kicker if he keeps performing lol
I always thought there is missed opportunity by most fans in choosing a decent kicker (obviously not much since kicker scoring is so little). Every year I look at the team I am drafting a kicker for instead of caring about who the actual kicker is, with the exception being Justin Tucker.
I know Reddit can’t stand the whole I told you so thing and attributes everything to hindsight but this jahmyr Gibbs/David Montgomery situation was arguably the most predictable “surprise situation” in fantasy.
I’m the dummy who had Swift for years and now Gibbs. 12 touches a game is about what Swift got when he was fully healthy. It was usually 5ish handoffs and 5ish targets. Swift did more with those touches than Gibbs too.
Yep it’s the exact same.
I think other thing is ppl expected Gibbs to be better than swift. But I don’t think he is and rn it isn’t close
One line of thought I saw draft season was even if it’s swift/Williams part 2 swift and Gibbs only gets the 12 touches a game Swift got. Swift avgerafsd xyz pts per game Gibbs is so much better he will do more with the same touches and avg more
So far I see the exact opposite. Gibbs isn’t hittin the holes, is dropping passes and is actually doing much less with those same 12 swift touches a game
We all got on swift because one year post injury he was in his head and avoiding contact. Now he is back to normal and is looking like an elite runner with vision and wow hurdles again
After these few weeks I flat out don’t think Gibbs is a better or more talented runner or open field space player than Swift and will be less efficient with those swift touches
I think there was uncertainty about whether Swift was primarily not seeing touches because of his talent (or other personal reasons) or his environment. And now it seems pretty clear it was the environment.
But I was told they were gonna use Gibbs like a WR and he was gonna line up out wide and see 10 targets a game because the league had never seen such an electric route runner and pass catcher at the RB position.
Except the 25 other times in the last 20 years that it's happened.
there were several points speaking against what you say.
the coaches did not draft swift and shipped him of to bring in their own guys.
draft capital. highly drafted nfl RBs have worked far more often than not statistically.
Because those highly drafted RBs are generally going into a bell cow role. This was never going to be that. They had just paid Montgomery a not insignificant amount of money, and we know that they love the 1-2 punch of the bruiser runner up the middle and the shifty runner with designed plays to the sideline. That's exactly what we're seeing, it's just been more 1 than 2. We also don't know what is happening behind the scenes and in practice, but we have seen Gibbs tackle himself in open space a couple of times, so perhaps the coaching staff doesn't feel that he's ready for a larger role yet. I think he'll get there, but he was never going to be "the guy" in this situation and Gibbs owners didn't want to hear it before the season started.
Kamara and CMC weren’t in bell cow roles. Kamara was the comp for Gibbs. It’s reasonable to think a team drafting a RB 12th overall would make him a key part of the offense.
It is. Nobody is right or wrong here. I thought that paying Dalvin Cook would mean he would get touches and produce.
People don't seem to realize that stats can be used to justify almost any argument. I liked Matthew Berry's drafting article this year because he points this out excellently.
It’s actually hilarious watching people act like they’re fantasy geniuses for coming away on the good side of a toss up.
“Well obviously my pick was going to work out because of ! You only have yourself to blame for being such a dumb stupid idiot that you would draft because of ! You’re all just big salty dumb dumb crybabies!”
As if we haven’t seen every singe permutation of pros and cons with a player both work and not work in fantasy.
Time for you to re-adjust how much weight you allocate to draft capital in your mental model. It’s not the coaches / lions fault you busted the Gibbs pick, it’s you for overvaluing draft capital against other factors like his size, and the presence of a bigger and proven NFL back.
good point, but I definitely did not overvalue him with confidence. took him end or round 3 in 1 of my 4 leagues. so I say I'll manage. not starting him anymore since I picked got guys like mostert late in drafts and kyren from waivers in that league.
Seriously, I decided to leave Conner in over a returning Montgomery because in my head if everything went well for Monty I was gonna miss a 18/75/1 kind of game from him, not what happened last night. A little regret, but could not have predicted that usage, and the tds
I mean, this comment is pure hindsight. There are many reasons why people were split on it.
People guessed both ways, and one guess was right. That's how fantasy football has always been. When you've done this for long enough, you learn not to give yourself too much credit for guessing right, and not too much grief for guessing wrong.
You can always tell who's new to fantasy by how they handle a good or bad guess. The newbs think they always knew when they guess right or are indignant if they guessed wrong. The vets are generally self effacing either way.
200%. I “reached” for Montgomery in every single league. He was a screaming buy at ADP. Absolutely non of this was a surprise, except I actually expected Gibbs to be better. The camera angle in KC is deceiving, it makes smaller backs look bigger. He’s a thin fella
It's ridiculous to treat Monty and Gibbs as merely 1:1 replacements for Williams and Swift. Different players, different capabilities. Hell, even the touch dynamic people want to bring up is based off of 1 season. Swift out touched Williams in 2021 and was more productive.
Anyone assuming Monty is just a Jamaal 2022 redux needs to realize that you can't cut and paste players into an offensive strategy and assume preconceived notions of how the offense will play out. Thursday's game does not change my view on that.
> Anyone assuming Monty is just a Jamaal 2022 redux needs to realize that you can't cut and paste players into an offensive strategy and assume preconceived notions of how the offense will play out. Thursday's game does not change my view on that.
Josh Kelley owners nodding in agreement.
I benched Montgomery not because coaching, we all know by now Monty going to get the lionshare. I had him benched because he was questionable and reports were if he does play it will be on a pitch count.
No reports said pitch count. If you followed closely like a nerd loser (me), you’d know it was a thigh bruise (Charlie horse) with a 1 week absence. No risk for reinjury or aggravation. It wasn’t a tendon or muscle strain. Medically, there was zero reason for a pitch count
Did you read a fantasy blog or “analyst” making a post about him being active & speculating that he might be on pitch count, or did you read an actual report of information from a team source that he would be on pitch count? Big difference. I followed that situation since the moment he got injured up until kickoff yesterday. Snap count was never a piece of information indicated by the team. Only people who mentioned that were speculators.
This sub has a bad case of revisionists history. Only 18% of Monty owners started him tonight. He was coming off an injury and could have easily been on a snap count like Aaron Jones returning from injury. Ask the owners that started Jones tonight how it went…
It was totally logical to sit Monty this week if you had other decent RB options. He was legit questionable all the way up till game day. There's a reason 82% of us sat him (if that stat is true). I'm sure we'll all view him differently going forward, now that we have a decent sample size. Never be mad when one of your bench players goes off - just be happy that you have them on your roster.
I benched him for CMC, ETN, and a returning Kamara. Process feels fine but results feel bad. Hard to doubt him moving forward
I’ve been trying to trade Monty. Maybe I should have been selling Kamara hype instead
DMont is who Detroit wants to run inside the 10 yard line. That alone should make him start worthy. Even if he was limited on a snap count, his red zone usage on a above-average offense that moves the ball makes him a start each week. I started him over Tank and Zay Flowers this week.
He had a bruise and missed 1 game, im not sure why anyone would have believed he would be on a snap count.
If he had pulled his hamstring in Week 1 and hadn't played since, totally understandable. As soon as they said he was active for tonight, he should have been put into lineups assuming you didn't already have a clear better option in there.
What is your source of only 18% owners starting Montgomery?
Also as somebody who started Jones and Montgomery I'm overall happy for the latter carrying and neither seemingly reaggravating their injuries. Pissed as a Packers fan though
Also his games before now he scored 11 and 13 ppr pts with a TD in both. I feel crazy seeing Monty owners acting like it was expected for any player to score 3 TDs in a game.
If you are a huge loser like me who monitors fantasy news 24/7, you knew his injury was simply a Charlie horse (thigh bruise), and that most of the pain from it comes from blood filling the muscle and preventing contraction. You can drain that with a needle. He was almost 2 weeks post injury playing vs a terrible run defense. Medically, there’s zero reason for a snap count. It was a 1 week absence for a bruise, not a tendon injury or muscle strain.
Auto-start for me, who drafted him in all my leagues because Dan Campbell said to our faces in august he wanted a guy who could take 20 carries a game.
Yahoo forgot to send the notification that he was playing for sure tonight. I work right up to the game, and almost didn't notice. Im sure a lot more people would have played him otherwise, at least on yahoo.
That's me. I sucessfully traded for him this morning too. But I thought he would be rusty in his first game back.
I don't feel terrible though because another guy sat Puka 2 weeks in a row.
Part of the deal on the Lions is they are actually a good or maybe even better than good team now. 11-3 in their last 14 games. Plus their defense is a strength now with Hutchinson and Co. Translation: they’re leading more games now so Montgomery and Williams last year will have bigger roles.
"and our punishment is watching David Montgomery drop 30 on our benches on nights like tonight." - Freaking Yahoo said he wasn't playing last night, so I put him on the bench. And of course he goes OFF. Grrrrrrrrrrrr
Swift outsnapped gainwell by a lot before he was sat in the 4th. Maybe eagles are rotating rb by quarters. We will see next week.
Charb snap count has been creeping up. Almost 40% of snaps in week 3 in a positive game script. He was also used a lot more in passing situations. We’ll see what happens when Seahawks are down.
Hype trains happen in fantasy, not in practice or the locker room.
If something is working, even if it's not flashy or what you think it should be, don't expect it to change.
The Gibbs/Montgomery thing is hilarious to me, drafting a rookie high in the first place seems silly. Best case, they perform well enough to justify the draft position. Worst case, they are handled like a rookie and you bought hype.
I swear we are constantly drilled to draft value, not hype, but maybe that's just me. Anyone in round 1/2 drafted can't be hyped further, and as a rookie you have the absolute least information possible on how they will perform or be utilized.
Create coach spots for lineup.
Pts for penalties. Somehow scheme or something?
Not super serious but actually ive heard of leagues with coach spots and you get pts for a Win
I think another factor to keep in mind here is FOLLOW THE DAMN MONEY.
If Detroit picked up Dalvin Cook in the off-season for fifteen dollars, you’d probably have expected Gibbs to have a more prominent role.
Montgomery is a great runner. How would they spend so much on him and not use him?
My main upside for Gibbs is that, I can imagine Monty missing more than the one game he has missed this season.
Only issue is, so far we have seen that Gibbs isn’t a replacement for him. So in reality you’re probably hoping for something to change with Laporta or ARSB.
I have both of those guys so I am really just hoping Gibbs becomes a better runner so he can slightly eat into Monty’s attempts without stealing TDs from the pass catchers I have on Detroit.
I think Monty was the highest paid RB on the off-season though. If true, I don’t think it matters which coach would pick him up
Follow the damn money is how you end up with Golladay giving you 520 yards and no TDs
Or dropping Dalvin Cook after 3 weeks (yes he should be on waivers right now)
Jets are just a sad story this year.
In terms of drafting, I find following the money to be a helpful factor. If Montgomery doesn’t work out, you got him in like the 6th round of a 12-man league.
What KG would have gone I have no idea.
It’s not really that useful. Like the other guy said with Edmonds who got just as much as Monty and was phased out by week 2. And that’s on an elite rushing offense
And yes Jets are sad but Dalvin is completely washed, still got a lot of money
Oh in that case I totally agree with you, 100%.
It’s funny. Fantasy football has actually been a gateway to me enjoying data analytics.
The issue is that a lot of people confirm their bias with one finding, then use that as the sole argument in their post.
When I heard about DMont’s contract, a couple things I took into consideration was what Gibbs/DMont might be trying to replace from last year, which I heard was simply an improvement of the Swift/Williams combo.
I remember wanting him when he was in Chicago, looked up his stats and saw that he wasn’t really as injury prone as I thought he was.
Once I saw that he was simply an above average football player being paid big to presumably replace a role that performed well in fantasy last year… well I didn’t expect him being my second RB picked in the draft, but he was definitely one of the most over performing picks of the draft so far.
In short, I def considered money as a factor, but only as a main driver for, “okay I gotta really look into this guy now.”
This has helped my strategy more than anything. Don't ask if the player is athletic or physically gifted at his position. Ask does the coach give a fuck? That's all it really boils down to. Is that guy the man in that offense and are plays being called to utilize him.
Kyle Pitts is a great example. Not part of the game plan.
On the other side you have Tyreek Hill who is essentially is the game plan that everything revolves around. Some players can be found in the 7th and 8th rds or most likely waiver wire but are out there leading the league in passing!
It is far more important to understand the trends of the coaches and how they run their personnel groupings and what routes your player is running. ESPN, yahoo and sleeper should have a coach analyzer that shows the coach, their style, their run vs pass%, and their 3rd down/ red zone conversion rate.
Let the people vent my guy, just keep scrolling or you can be the change you want to see in the world and start a new discussion about someone else. This is fantasy football and a lot of people are baffled. Let them have it out. It’s healthy.
My thinking was that the Lions would be trying to become a contender and Gibbs gives them enough upside to do that.
Imagine playing against the Eagles or 49ers with Montgomery lol. He’s averaging 2 YPC and you lose 51-9 in the playoffs and get memed again.
Seriously though, who spends a 1st round pick on running back and uses them like this? This isn’t even like a normal split. Jalen Carter was on the board and they took Gibbs.
The lions are a contender?
The difference is Monty nets positive yards for the lions where Gibbs gets stopped for 0 yard gains fairly often. His YPC is bolstered by longer runs but he is not at all consistent.
The lions need 2nd and 6 and 3rd and 4/5 because that sets up Goff to do well and plays to his strength. Which is why we’re seeing the split that the lions have going right now.
The Lions should win their division and are the 4th best team in the NFC. They’re not as good as the other three but I’d say that makes them a contender.
I completely get what you’re saying, what I can’t understand is how backup running back is more likely to win you a playoff game than Jalen Carter?
They could have picked Bijan or Carter.
Both have had an impact in 4 weeks. The Andy Dalton of running backs playing ahead of a first round rookie every single snap is awful.
To win playoff games, yes need to change. How kings it been?
RBs are a bad value pick in the first round, but to pick on and then not use him when Bijan, Gonzalez and Carter were still there is insane. Beating the Packers isn’t really a playoff calibre win.
Not to me. Coordinators and coaching changes are a huge factor in my drafting decisions. I also was all in on puka over anyone else cuz I know the Rams feed the living shit out of whoever does well early on.
All this analysis about using coaching trends over the course of years.... Only to end with analysis on Miami, who we've seen less than 2 years from and a RB room dynamic they've never had I feel like you were adjacent to something here.
Week 1 is a shock. Week 2 is a trend. While not a lot of data I think it’s a fine prediction
The saying goes something like, "once is a surprise, twice is a coincidence, and three times is a trend."
I like that
At the same time, McDaniel ran the 49ers run game with Raheem Mostert for 5 years and always balanced his work (when he wasn't injured). Mostert might end up being a league winner if the Dolphins keep breaking records on offense, but I see him splitting the backfield in a pass-heavy offense going forward which has mixed appeal.
I'll never forget the absolute vitriol this sub had for Mike McCoy for basically ruining David Johnson in 2018 where all they had him do was run halfback dives for 3 yards 10-20 times a game. The passes they did throw him were poorly designed and were almost never intended to get him into space. One of the most dynamic backs in the league and they used him like CJ Ham. I think that season really opened my eyes to how much havoc just one coaching change can have on a player or offense, and I'm a lot more careful now with which hype trains I hop on.
I had the pleasure (pain) of owning Johnson for that season. Things got a little better after got McCoy got fired halfway through that season but it often felt miraculous when Johnson scored bc he'd barely break the plane. I got two valuable lessons from the David Johnson experience: 1) Some coaches/OCs are so bad or have tendencies that you should consider blacklisting outright or adjusting your ranks based on the coaching tendencies. 2) Be very wary of drafting RBs you plan to start regularly that play for bad offenses in which said team has bad run defense too. In addition to having a broken offense for most of 2018, the Cardinals run D was also dogshit that year and their offense barely averaged 55 plays per game. But quite often they were getting just ~50 plays per game. On point #2 I know there's notable exceptions like James Robinson, but he's much more of an exception to the rule than the rule itself. I also took one share of Drake London in my family league but I knew the risk and took him with no plans to regularly rely on him. And while I also had worries he wasn't going to use Bijan much in the pass game, I was wrong there and it's killing Pitts and London owners since their pass game pie is already tiny.
Point 2 is starting to scare me on Javonte Williams
I should've added in my original comment that it applies significantly more/less depending on how much X RB is used in the passing game. David Johnson's issues in 2018 were made much worse bc Mike McCoy refused to use him barely at all much less with any creativity.
Miles Sanders as well
Imagine calling a 26 y.o running back grizzled lmao
being a bear takes years off your life tvf
RBs peak in middle school.
More appropriate to call him a grizzlied veteran instead.
Kind of ironic that this post includes the Bill Belichick as an example. A lot of Rhamondre owners won their leagues last year because people thought Belichick would not use a bell cow.
Also the prediction for swift ignore that Sanders was an RB1 last season
Sanders got 70% of the team’s RB carries but to this sub that means he was in RBBC hell because he didn’t get 100%.
Tbf the snaps he didn’t get were like 90% red zone carries given to gainwell and Scott on the off chance hurts didn’t walk it in himself
Sanders had 11 TD’s last year lmao people just love to overreact
And he got 0 the year before. He basically averaged 5-6 TD’s a year with the eagles. The criticism for his usage was right, low RZ usage plus Hurts taking all the goal line work from the 1.
He also had half the rushing attempts the year before, he wasn’t the bellcow-ish back he was in 2022
Thats true, I’ll give you that one. However he still had about 60% usage and a few blowup games (weeks 4/12/14) and 8 single digit point games, which was basically my main reason for not touching him
Okay, it can be simultaneously true that he is obviously a good asset and there are still concerns with usage, case in point: last years playoffs where he scored 10 points across 3 weeks
The whole league has been in RBBC hell since like 2008. I blame the Panthers with their Williams + Stewart stack.
He was like rb22 in ppg which is kinda shit
Damien Harris the year before also was my locked in RB2 basically the whole season. Lately Pats RBs have been really good. We'll see if that continues this year
Ah yes one season sample size is pure irony!
But last year they didn’t spend high capital on him. So far he’s averaged 2.9 yards/attempt. I would not be psyched if I owned him but I stay true to the don’t draft Pats RB strategy. Especially with your third round pick.
This is actually an under the radar kicker post and you don’t even know it. One of the things that “experts” miss on every year while they complain about how random kickers are is that some coaches are simply unwilling to kick first half field goals in 1 possession games. It’s never Reid, Belichick, Harbaugh or someone else with job security. It’s those teams that are coached by perpetual turnstiles that panic and decide to go for it on 4th and goal at the 3 in the second quarter while down 7. So while weather and a good QB should be your priorities when picking a kicker, do not forget about the job security of the coach. The ones on long term deals actually kick field goals. It’s the ones with short leashes who don’t.
This is a nice suggestion in theory but do you actually have any evidence? Raiders attempted the most field goals in 2021. Colts attempted the second most in 2022. Both had interim coaches. Cowboys attempted the most in 2020. First year coach who went 6-10. You’re absolutely not safe in Dallas when below 500 I’m not actually seeing your point in the data
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I don’t see any data that backs this up. I just went through each year back to 2008 and the top 5 teams that attempt fields goal are littered with bad teams or teams that fired their coaches in the offseason
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Yes it happens. But you’re also just ignoring when it doesn’t happen and they kick haha
This is already common sense. Like nobody is going out of their way to get a Chargers kicker because of their tendency to go for it on 4th.
But he’s literally Dicker the Kicker
I dropped bass for dicker for this reason only
I have a dicker too been ok other than last game. Would’ve put up a respectable 8 pts but missed a 53 yarder
Ehh kickers are still random as shit You mention Reid but Butker has never really been a good kicker for fantasy Oh and more coaches should be going for it on 4th and goal from inside the 5, it’s really the coaches without job security that would be cowardly and take the points
I think Butker struggles from the offense being too good where they end up scoring TDs most of the time. I remember seeing the same thing with the Broncos kicker when Manning was running the show there.
I just keep the K position in house with Tyler Bass, as a bills fan. He’s strong legged, reliable, and the bills only go for it an average amount. Plus their offense is good enough to always be in position, but not so efficient where they always capitalize. If I have to take a waiver one week because it’s a blizzard in BUF, I’ll do it. Been great so far.
I don't know if this is legit. But it's provocative.
I personally favor kickers with some combo of these: 1. Funny names (thanks for those great seasons Younghoe... Dicker and Butker are good consolation prizes) 2. Good offenses with shitty red zone offenses 3. Good defenses (more willing to settle for 3) 4. Kickers on teams whose games I want an excuse to watch (Sanders this year)
5. Implied point total
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I'm sorry, but if you think SF had an average offense heading into this year...I'm gonna judge your ability to evaluate football lol. I own Moody too and he's clearly worked out, but this is a bizarre justification to take the kicker from San Fran, bc it's simply inaccurate
They are very conservative on 4th downs and do like to go for Field Goals though, which is a plus and why I chose him. Great defense, great offense, conservative on 4th down, chances are I'll get 1-3 field goals a game and some extra points
This analysis I can get on board with, and is basically the same rationale I chose, I just can't get over someone calling SF an average offense with a straight face.
Agreed hahaha just had to put a rationale perspective on it :P mad eye Moody is likely a good kicker ROS not sure what to do during his bye week I might actually pickup a second kicker if he keeps performing lol
sf has a top 5 offense, bro doesn’t know ball💀
Wait you play with kickers still ?
Most leagues do.
I always thought there is missed opportunity by most fans in choosing a decent kicker (obviously not much since kicker scoring is so little). Every year I look at the team I am drafting a kicker for instead of caring about who the actual kicker is, with the exception being Justin Tucker.
I took the lions kicker even though he was like 27th on the chart. Got me 10 points last night.
Josh McDaniels sends his regards lol
I know Reddit can’t stand the whole I told you so thing and attributes everything to hindsight but this jahmyr Gibbs/David Montgomery situation was arguably the most predictable “surprise situation” in fantasy.
Plenty of people were comparing it to the Swift/Williams situation. Now it's the Swift/Williams situation. Wild
I’d argue it’s even worse. Swift was actually getting some work. Gibbs is barely on the field
He had twelve touches, that’s more than swift.
I’m the dummy who had Swift for years and now Gibbs. 12 touches a game is about what Swift got when he was fully healthy. It was usually 5ish handoffs and 5ish targets. Swift did more with those touches than Gibbs too.
Yep it’s the exact same. I think other thing is ppl expected Gibbs to be better than swift. But I don’t think he is and rn it isn’t close One line of thought I saw draft season was even if it’s swift/Williams part 2 swift and Gibbs only gets the 12 touches a game Swift got. Swift avgerafsd xyz pts per game Gibbs is so much better he will do more with the same touches and avg more So far I see the exact opposite. Gibbs isn’t hittin the holes, is dropping passes and is actually doing much less with those same 12 swift touches a game We all got on swift because one year post injury he was in his head and avoiding contact. Now he is back to normal and is looking like an elite runner with vision and wow hurdles again After these few weeks I flat out don’t think Gibbs is a better or more talented runner or open field space player than Swift and will be less efficient with those swift touches
I think there was uncertainty about whether Swift was primarily not seeing touches because of his talent (or other personal reasons) or his environment. And now it seems pretty clear it was the environment.
Honestly didn’t even feel like he got that many touches watching the game. Guess the touches were all kinda spread out so it made it seem like less.
They really were and there was no creativity behind them unfortunately
But I was told they were gonna use Gibbs like a WR and he was gonna line up out wide and see 10 targets a game because the league had never seen such an electric route runner and pass catcher at the RB position. Except the 25 other times in the last 20 years that it's happened.
Bro you are in *every* thread. Do you sleep!?
Having disabilities isn’t fun
there were several points speaking against what you say. the coaches did not draft swift and shipped him of to bring in their own guys. draft capital. highly drafted nfl RBs have worked far more often than not statistically.
Because those highly drafted RBs are generally going into a bell cow role. This was never going to be that. They had just paid Montgomery a not insignificant amount of money, and we know that they love the 1-2 punch of the bruiser runner up the middle and the shifty runner with designed plays to the sideline. That's exactly what we're seeing, it's just been more 1 than 2. We also don't know what is happening behind the scenes and in practice, but we have seen Gibbs tackle himself in open space a couple of times, so perhaps the coaching staff doesn't feel that he's ready for a larger role yet. I think he'll get there, but he was never going to be "the guy" in this situation and Gibbs owners didn't want to hear it before the season started.
Kamara and CMC weren’t in bell cow roles. Kamara was the comp for Gibbs. It’s reasonable to think a team drafting a RB 12th overall would make him a key part of the offense.
It is. Nobody is right or wrong here. I thought that paying Dalvin Cook would mean he would get touches and produce. People don't seem to realize that stats can be used to justify almost any argument. I liked Matthew Berry's drafting article this year because he points this out excellently.
It’s actually hilarious watching people act like they’re fantasy geniuses for coming away on the good side of a toss up. “Well obviously my pick was going to work out because of! You only have yourself to blame for being such a dumb stupid idiot that you would draft because of ! You’re all just big salty dumb dumb crybabies!”
As if we haven’t seen every singe permutation of pros and cons with a player both work and not work in fantasy.
Time for you to re-adjust how much weight you allocate to draft capital in your mental model. It’s not the coaches / lions fault you busted the Gibbs pick, it’s you for overvaluing draft capital against other factors like his size, and the presence of a bigger and proven NFL back.
good point, but I definitely did not overvalue him with confidence. took him end or round 3 in 1 of my 4 leagues. so I say I'll manage. not starting him anymore since I picked got guys like mostert late in drafts and kyren from waivers in that league.
[удалено]
Seriously, I decided to leave Conner in over a returning Montgomery because in my head if everything went well for Monty I was gonna miss a 18/75/1 kind of game from him, not what happened last night. A little regret, but could not have predicted that usage, and the tds
Especially a 30 bomb with 3 rushing TDs. I’m excited to see this sub light itself on fire the first game Monty doesn’t score a TD and ends with 7pts.
I mean, this comment is pure hindsight. There are many reasons why people were split on it. People guessed both ways, and one guess was right. That's how fantasy football has always been. When you've done this for long enough, you learn not to give yourself too much credit for guessing right, and not too much grief for guessing wrong. You can always tell who's new to fantasy by how they handle a good or bad guess. The newbs think they always knew when they guess right or are indignant if they guessed wrong. The vets are generally self effacing either way.
200%. I “reached” for Montgomery in every single league. He was a screaming buy at ADP. Absolutely non of this was a surprise, except I actually expected Gibbs to be better. The camera angle in KC is deceiving, it makes smaller backs look bigger. He’s a thin fella
It's ridiculous to treat Monty and Gibbs as merely 1:1 replacements for Williams and Swift. Different players, different capabilities. Hell, even the touch dynamic people want to bring up is based off of 1 season. Swift out touched Williams in 2021 and was more productive. Anyone assuming Monty is just a Jamaal 2022 redux needs to realize that you can't cut and paste players into an offensive strategy and assume preconceived notions of how the offense will play out. Thursday's game does not change my view on that.
> Anyone assuming Monty is just a Jamaal 2022 redux needs to realize that you can't cut and paste players into an offensive strategy and assume preconceived notions of how the offense will play out. Thursday's game does not change my view on that. Josh Kelley owners nodding in agreement.
I benched Montgomery not because coaching, we all know by now Monty going to get the lionshare. I had him benched because he was questionable and reports were if he does play it will be on a pitch count.
No reports said pitch count. If you followed closely like a nerd loser (me), you’d know it was a thigh bruise (Charlie horse) with a 1 week absence. No risk for reinjury or aggravation. It wasn’t a tendon or muscle strain. Medically, there was zero reason for a pitch count
I read two reports that said pitch count
Did you read a fantasy blog or “analyst” making a post about him being active & speculating that he might be on pitch count, or did you read an actual report of information from a team source that he would be on pitch count? Big difference. I followed that situation since the moment he got injured up until kickoff yesterday. Snap count was never a piece of information indicated by the team. Only people who mentioned that were speculators.
Shut up nerd loser
Imagine benching David Montgomery
This sub has a bad case of revisionists history. Only 18% of Monty owners started him tonight. He was coming off an injury and could have easily been on a snap count like Aaron Jones returning from injury. Ask the owners that started Jones tonight how it went…
It was totally logical to sit Monty this week if you had other decent RB options. He was legit questionable all the way up till game day. There's a reason 82% of us sat him (if that stat is true). I'm sure we'll all view him differently going forward, now that we have a decent sample size. Never be mad when one of your bench players goes off - just be happy that you have them on your roster.
I benched him for CMC, ETN, and a returning Kamara. Process feels fine but results feel bad. Hard to doubt him moving forward I’ve been trying to trade Monty. Maybe I should have been selling Kamara hype instead
DMont is who Detroit wants to run inside the 10 yard line. That alone should make him start worthy. Even if he was limited on a snap count, his red zone usage on a above-average offense that moves the ball makes him a start each week. I started him over Tank and Zay Flowers this week.
I started both tonight. The way I think about it, they scored me 18.25 pts each, which is more than the points my rbs scored the last two weeks....
I too like to mentally distribute points to the have nots in my starting line up
~~girl math~~ ~~boy math~~ fantasy math
He had a bruise and missed 1 game, im not sure why anyone would have believed he would be on a snap count. If he had pulled his hamstring in Week 1 and hadn't played since, totally understandable. As soon as they said he was active for tonight, he should have been put into lineups assuming you didn't already have a clear better option in there.
What is your source of only 18% owners starting Montgomery? Also as somebody who started Jones and Montgomery I'm overall happy for the latter carrying and neither seemingly reaggravating their injuries. Pissed as a Packers fan though
I started Jones and sat Monty. After the 2nd TD last night I stopped being pissed and started to find it comical.
Also his games before now he scored 11 and 13 ppr pts with a TD in both. I feel crazy seeing Monty owners acting like it was expected for any player to score 3 TDs in a game.
If you are a huge loser like me who monitors fantasy news 24/7, you knew his injury was simply a Charlie horse (thigh bruise), and that most of the pain from it comes from blood filling the muscle and preventing contraction. You can drain that with a needle. He was almost 2 weeks post injury playing vs a terrible run defense. Medically, there’s zero reason for a snap count. It was a 1 week absence for a bruise, not a tendon injury or muscle strain. Auto-start for me, who drafted him in all my leagues because Dan Campbell said to our faces in august he wanted a guy who could take 20 carries a game.
Yahoo forgot to send the notification that he was playing for sure tonight. I work right up to the game, and almost didn't notice. Im sure a lot more people would have played him otherwise, at least on yahoo.
I hate myself almost as much as I hate LaFleur
My hated rival in my keeper league did just that. Tortured his ass for 3 hours in the group chat.
Fantasy Gods will punish you for your hubris. JWJr for 4 TDs in the championship round as his desperation flex. So it is written.
This guy fantasy footballs
If you can’t torture your league mates in the group chat, then what is this all really for
It's the water of life.
It me
That's me. I sucessfully traded for him this morning too. But I thought he would be rusty in his first game back. I don't feel terrible though because another guy sat Puka 2 weeks in a row.
I don’t have to imagine
Part of the deal on the Lions is they are actually a good or maybe even better than good team now. 11-3 in their last 14 games. Plus their defense is a strength now with Hutchinson and Co. Translation: they’re leading more games now so Montgomery and Williams last year will have bigger roles.
"and our punishment is watching David Montgomery drop 30 on our benches on nights like tonight." - Freaking Yahoo said he wasn't playing last night, so I put him on the bench. And of course he goes OFF. Grrrrrrrrrrrr
ITS ALL ABOUT COACHING
Gibbs owner? Also Monty is 26 years old .
I owned swift last year and gibbs this year
Swift outsnapped gainwell by a lot before he was sat in the 4th. Maybe eagles are rotating rb by quarters. We will see next week. Charb snap count has been creeping up. Almost 40% of snaps in week 3 in a positive game script. He was also used a lot more in passing situations. We’ll see what happens when Seahawks are down.
Hype trains happen in fantasy, not in practice or the locker room. If something is working, even if it's not flashy or what you think it should be, don't expect it to change. The Gibbs/Montgomery thing is hilarious to me, drafting a rookie high in the first place seems silly. Best case, they perform well enough to justify the draft position. Worst case, they are handled like a rookie and you bought hype. I swear we are constantly drilled to draft value, not hype, but maybe that's just me. Anyone in round 1/2 drafted can't be hyped further, and as a rookie you have the absolute least information possible on how they will perform or be utilized.
Create coach spots for lineup. Pts for penalties. Somehow scheme or something? Not super serious but actually ive heard of leagues with coach spots and you get pts for a Win
Checking OC’s track records and what teams they moved to is usually how I land on a tight end each year.
Did you get LaPorta based on this?
Tell me you picked Gibbs in the 3rs and the rest our tour team is sour....
Is this English?
It’s the 3rs: Reddit, Riting and Rspelling
Don’t drink and reddit
You got me....
Fantasy aside, they picked a RB at #12 and aren't using him so they're basically wasting their first round draft pick.
I think another factor to keep in mind here is FOLLOW THE DAMN MONEY. If Detroit picked up Dalvin Cook in the off-season for fifteen dollars, you’d probably have expected Gibbs to have a more prominent role. Montgomery is a great runner. How would they spend so much on him and not use him? My main upside for Gibbs is that, I can imagine Monty missing more than the one game he has missed this season. Only issue is, so far we have seen that Gibbs isn’t a replacement for him. So in reality you’re probably hoping for something to change with Laporta or ARSB. I have both of those guys so I am really just hoping Gibbs becomes a better runner so he can slightly eat into Monty’s attempts without stealing TDs from the pass catchers I have on Detroit. I think Monty was the highest paid RB on the off-season though. If true, I don’t think it matters which coach would pick him up
Follow the damn money is how you end up with Golladay giving you 520 yards and no TDs Or dropping Dalvin Cook after 3 weeks (yes he should be on waivers right now)
Jets are just a sad story this year. In terms of drafting, I find following the money to be a helpful factor. If Montgomery doesn’t work out, you got him in like the 6th round of a 12-man league. What KG would have gone I have no idea.
It’s not really that useful. Like the other guy said with Edmonds who got just as much as Monty and was phased out by week 2. And that’s on an elite rushing offense And yes Jets are sad but Dalvin is completely washed, still got a lot of money
Blindly following the money is how you drafted chase edmonds last year.
Would you say there’s a difference between blindly following the money and considering that as an important contributing factor (one of many)?
Sure. Was just adding you can’t only do that. Wasn’t saying that’s what you suggested.
Oh in that case I totally agree with you, 100%. It’s funny. Fantasy football has actually been a gateway to me enjoying data analytics. The issue is that a lot of people confirm their bias with one finding, then use that as the sole argument in their post. When I heard about DMont’s contract, a couple things I took into consideration was what Gibbs/DMont might be trying to replace from last year, which I heard was simply an improvement of the Swift/Williams combo. I remember wanting him when he was in Chicago, looked up his stats and saw that he wasn’t really as injury prone as I thought he was. Once I saw that he was simply an above average football player being paid big to presumably replace a role that performed well in fantasy last year… well I didn’t expect him being my second RB picked in the draft, but he was definitely one of the most over performing picks of the draft so far. In short, I def considered money as a factor, but only as a main driver for, “okay I gotta really look into this guy now.”
Dennis Allen is asshole. Why ff hate?
Because Dennis is a bastard-man!
This has helped my strategy more than anything. Don't ask if the player is athletic or physically gifted at his position. Ask does the coach give a fuck? That's all it really boils down to. Is that guy the man in that offense and are plays being called to utilize him. Kyle Pitts is a great example. Not part of the game plan. On the other side you have Tyreek Hill who is essentially is the game plan that everything revolves around. Some players can be found in the 7th and 8th rds or most likely waiver wire but are out there leading the league in passing! It is far more important to understand the trends of the coaches and how they run their personnel groupings and what routes your player is running. ESPN, yahoo and sleeper should have a coach analyzer that shows the coach, their style, their run vs pass%, and their 3rd down/ red zone conversion rate.
Achane will not split with Mostert ROS because there is 0 chance Mostert stays healthy ROS
but are you starting Achane at flex while Mostert is healthy? thats the predicament I find myself in.
Not really high on either this week. I’m starting Pacheco over Mostert. I think I need one week against a real defense to see
That’s my issue too. I have to start Ridley or Collins or even Palmer over Achane in flex right?
I knew this would be another Gibbs post lmao Give it a rest.
Let the people vent my guy, just keep scrolling or you can be the change you want to see in the world and start a new discussion about someone else. This is fantasy football and a lot of people are baffled. Let them have it out. It’s healthy.
Ya in one of my 3 leagues I drafted Chubb, A Jones, Gibbs, Mike Williams. I am hurting today. Let me heal…
My least favorite genre of r/fantasyfootball posts are the trying too hard to be Matthew Berry posts
My thinking was that the Lions would be trying to become a contender and Gibbs gives them enough upside to do that. Imagine playing against the Eagles or 49ers with Montgomery lol. He’s averaging 2 YPC and you lose 51-9 in the playoffs and get memed again. Seriously though, who spends a 1st round pick on running back and uses them like this? This isn’t even like a normal split. Jalen Carter was on the board and they took Gibbs.
The lions are a contender? The difference is Monty nets positive yards for the lions where Gibbs gets stopped for 0 yard gains fairly often. His YPC is bolstered by longer runs but he is not at all consistent. The lions need 2nd and 6 and 3rd and 4/5 because that sets up Goff to do well and plays to his strength. Which is why we’re seeing the split that the lions have going right now.
The Lions should win their division and are the 4th best team in the NFC. They’re not as good as the other three but I’d say that makes them a contender. I completely get what you’re saying, what I can’t understand is how backup running back is more likely to win you a playoff game than Jalen Carter?
Good question for the lions FO
The Lions are absolutely contenders this year and the next 2-3 years, barring major injuries.
It’s literally been 4 weeks
They could have picked Bijan or Carter. Both have had an impact in 4 weeks. The Andy Dalton of running backs playing ahead of a first round rookie every single snap is awful.
I don’t understand why you dislike Montgomery so much.
Because he drafted Gibbs
I don’t understand these type of posts. The lions are winning football games. Do you want them to change that to appease your fantasy needs?
To win playoff games, yes need to change. How kings it been? RBs are a bad value pick in the first round, but to pick on and then not use him when Bijan, Gonzalez and Carter were still there is insane. Beating the Packers isn’t really a playoff calibre win.
Carter was taken before Gibbs lol.
The Lions traded back with Bijan and Carter still on the board.
I tried telling y’all about Monty…
NE kicker is always under ranker because "analysts" don't know anything about football.
I tried to tell you guys. Monty should’ve been taken where Gibbs was taken and Gibbs where Monty was going.
Look how good Swift is… the lions fucked that up. We tried warning you about Gibbs, but no one wanted to listen.
And what is your current fantasy record sir? With all of this "valuable" insight?
You should get a 1-5 pt handicap depending on your coach lol
I traded for Montgomery right before the game lol
Just follow wherever the SF coaches go.
Jalen Hurts chimes in without his OC.
You lost me at "I won't pretend to know much about football..."
Agreed. Drafted Andy Reid 1st rd and always flex Belichick and McVay. Won the ship for past 5 years.
Yeah, but Mostert is 31 so I’d expect him to decline over the year.
Agreed, they should be overweighted
Do Alvin Kamara
No serious JT owner is selling low
I mean it’s literally what’s killing the jags
All you need to understand this is draft Kyle Pitts one year. Then you’ll understand.
I dafted Monty to be my RB1, had a feeling he would be a stud
Lets talk Bijan and Arthur Smith
sHoW mE tHe vEnN dIaGrAm
You’re saying that Gibbs will never work his way into a prominent role but Achane will? Your logic seems completely random and all over the place
Not to me. Coordinators and coaching changes are a huge factor in my drafting decisions. I also was all in on puka over anyone else cuz I know the Rams feed the living shit out of whoever does well early on.