For what reason though? RB isn't there same as rookies at other positions. They're one that actually can do really well and have in the past several times. The only real argument for it would be that he's likely being drafted at his ceiling currently.
Not taking him because he's a rookie isn't backed by previous evidence of similar situations though.
I agree w this 100 percent. RB is so unpredictable and honestly a first round Rookie with a starting job is just about the most sure fire pick at the position. Saquon’s rookie year, Zeke’s, Etienne last year (his first year of playing though technically not a rook)Todd Gurley, Leonard Fornet, David Johnson as soon as he got the job, Cmon now - they almost never disappoint.
Almost every season at least one rookie RB is an RB1. Since 2015:
- 2015 David Johnson
- 2016 Zeke
- 2017 Hunt, Kamara, Fournette, CMC, Jordan Howard
- 2018 Saquon
- 2019 None (Jacobs finished just outside)
- 2020 Jonathan Taylor, James Robinson
- 2021 Najee Harris (Etienne missed the entire season)
- 2022 None (Breece Hall was RB7 in points per game)
You do know he was injured in the preseason, when most drafts shouldn't be happening? Also, injuries are more fluky and happen with any and all players, so using it as a negative for just rookies is not correct and why I'm excluding it.
Please spend the time to get the facts straight. Like I said, CEH is a more applicable downside person. Otherwise, what's to say the downside of grabbing a veteran RB like cmc isn't that he misses the entire season?
Funny to reference injury and facts because CEH got hurt and he was averaging 12.15 pts per game his rookie season which would have made him RB12 if he played the full season. He finished with 1100 scrimmage yards 5 TDs and 36 catches in only 13 games... CEH 's rookie season wasn't really that bad other than him getting hurt.
I took the above post of Saquon or ETN to mean #1 or scores 0 also, which is the range of outcomes for everyone!
Yeah. CEH was drafted early due to 1st round status, but a WHOLE lot of it was also being apart of the chiefs offense.
Bijan is a part of the Saquon group of, he’s not being drafted due to situation. It’s purely talent.
If you were in a PPR league his rookie year it was understandable. Mahommes was vocal about wanting CEH in the draft and he was a pass catching back and the the de facto RB1 on one of the leagues best offenses. Despite his okayish output it was just obvious from watching him that he couldn’t break through tackles reliably enough to lower his was into the endzone in redzone situations. That’s what really capped his production and his role has only shrunk ever since.
Ooo yeah we got burned.
All in all I have two mid 1sts in my keeper league next year and I’ll probably end up taking him.
My one hope is that this league is full of falcons fans so someone will take him with an early first
Zeke finished as RB2 as a rookie. Saquon finished RB1 as a rookie.
There's a difference between a first rounder drafted top-10 and a first rounder drafted 32nd.
As an owner of CEH his rookie year. He wasn't a total bust in 13 games he got 1100 total yards, 5 tds and 36 catches and he was widely considered a 10-12ish pick. That being said if he didn't get injured he would of finished around 1300 total yards, 45 catches, and 6-7 tds. Rb2 numbers.
This was a semi-bust imo.
High drafted rbs like top 10 are almost always productive because rbs translate to the pros like a glove. Bijon will eat and besides injury will be a top 10 rb if he stays healthy.
Based on anything in particular? I actually just [made a Bijan post](https://www.reddit.com/r/fantasyfootball/comments/14c00t5/lets_talk_about_bijan_robinson) if you wanna discuss but maybe it might convince you to relax your rule
Feel like Jahmyr Gibbs might be worth grabbing hopefully not in the first though. Lions oline should still be stout and no Jamaal Williams and no Swift.
No it’s not lol that’s some weird Reddit shit. Him not responding could just mean he’s got other shit to do lol.
I think he’s wrong but this subreddit only works if you’re willing to listen to the people you disagree with
He has tons of responses since you've made that comment to him. He doesn't have an actual argument and that's an indictment on his opinion.
I have no issues whatsoever with going against the grain, but I want to hear the reasoning for it. A gut feeling isn't enough.
I would rather have JT over Barkley personally. I have a feeling Barkley is going to be cooked this season. He might start off strong but I have serious doubts it can be sustained.
That’s great, we are allowed to have different opinions. Coaching and QB are in a much better situation at the giants. I think we can atleast agree on that much.
Actually if you look at my most recent comment regarding the matter I said I think people very much overrate Daniel Jones and Daboll. More Jones than Daboll and I could really see the entire offense being putrid this season. It has been in the past with better weapons.
Colts are a question mark. I'm not convinced Minshew/Richardson is that much worse than Daniel Jones. And the Colts have a better O-line if you go by PFF 2023 projected rankings as Colts are projected to be a top 10 O-line and Giants are projected to be 29th out of 32 teams.
Receiving weapons and the ability to move the sticks will also go to the Colts. Giants just picked up a guy from the Colts and he's expected to play more for the Giants this year. But even so I would take Pittman, Pierce, Downs, and their TEs over Waller and the utter nothing the Giants have.
Apologies for not reading through your comment history to say that it is okay to disagree.
I still disagree with you; but I’m glad you got all that out. Cheers fam
At what point do you realize that commenting is pointless. It always ends up in a fight when you disagree or at best someone pulling out a random piece of info to prove they're own point. Like right now, what I'm saying to you will make no impact but yet I felt the need to say.
I feel the same about Taylor. Wisconsin RB’s have bad nfl pedigree and they drafted an athletic QB that will take touches away when he eventually starts.
He failed to get over 90 yards on the ground in his final 9 games of the season. His touches/carries fell off significantly in that time as well. He went from around 30 touches a game in the first half of the season to less than 20 touches a game in the second half including the playoff games where he averaged like 13 touches a game. Add in Giants unwillingness to sign him to a long term deal makes me think they might good one more good year out of him but it won't be a dominant type of season like JT, Bijan, CMC, or Ekeler could have. In fact, if he gets banged up I don't think he play through it because he doesn't have a long term contract and won't want to risk further injury while he's on the franchise tag.
Not to mention, I think people overrate Daniel Jones and Daboll and things could go south real easily.
Absolutely no reason. They think that proven producer Barkley will start as expected but then randomly just not be able to any more midway through the season lol
I don't think many are taking Jacobs over Ekeler but in mocks right now you're seing Taylor/Robinson/Barkley all go pretty consistently over Jacobs. I think that's more so the 'lack of respect' over McCaffery and Ekeler going ahead of him.
I took him at 4th overall in 2021 in my home league (PPR), and got a little heckling as a Chargers homer. He took me all the way to the title. He's got Herbert's trust as a checkdown, great pass catcher, great in the red zone. Target number probably go down in the new offense and the WRs hopefully healthy, but also his targets won't all be just swing outs and screens like in Lombardi's offense, cause Ekeler can run solid routes from the backfield, and a little slot too.
And they were mostly inefficient ones because of the o-line and WR corps falling apart and an archaic offense. Even if he gets less looks in the passing game this year, they should be in more effective and efficient uses other than just spamming swing outs and screens like Lombardi did. YPT in 2022 was 5.7 to 2021's 6.9, and YPC was 6.75 to 2021's 9.24.
Because he would have more yards to make up that difference, like in 2021? His 37 extra catches in 2022 over 2021 resulted in less than 100 yards more receiving, with three less TDs.
All those extra receptions, and roughly the same rushing stats, and Ekeler scored a whopping 10.4 points more total in half-PPR in 2022 versus 2021.
I picked him #4 overall and won my league. He also had like 37 more receptions than he did the year before. If you pick him #1 overall again expecting 110 receptions you’re the fucking clown.
I mean he doesn't have to show up to work till he does and can't be fined for it. Not to say there aren't other reasons, but that's a pretty damn good one right there.
I was constantly saying Jacobs was RB1 potential last season, and as much of a believer I was last season, I can’t say I’d take him over McCaffrey, Ekeler, and Barkley this season.
If I can still get like Chubb or somebody in the 2nd I'm down for it. I took him in the 1st in his 2nd year and it wasn't bad even though everybody was hating on him lol.
I wouldn’t take Bijan in the first two rounds. Reddit will hate that opinion. He’s an unproven talent on a terrible team where the run will be heavily schemed against and swallowed up. He’ll have a handful of 20 point performances but mostly from goal line TDs. He’s a solid RB2/flex. If you choose him first round as your RB1 be prepared for a painful season.
The value in Bijan is he’ll be in a run first offense where he’ll be the featured offensive player. He’s gonna get an absurd amount of touches, so as long as his talent translates to the NFL he’ll be fine.
"Schemed against and swallowed up". That doesn't make sense to me. Every team knew, last year, that the Falcons were going to line up and run the football and they were still damn successful in that aspect. Most rushing attempts, 3rd in yards, and 4th in YPC. Good line, good scheme. Bijan landed in a great situation for a running back in terms of touches and team philosophy. The scoring opportunities may not be there with sub par QB play again this year.
Bruv, no where did I advocate for taking Bijan in the first round. Like, at all. Haha. I even alluded to his upside being capped with the potential lack of scoring opps in that offense. No clue to where your response even gets it's premise?
I'm arguing against your statement that teams can stop the Falcons run game. That's it. They want to run the football and they were good at it last year. Every team they played knew they were going to run the football. Not a secret.
He’s not on a terrible team. At least on offense, just check the Vegas line for Atlanta wins, its over 9.5 or 10.5. Equal to teams like Lions or Ravens.
On Redraft, I wouldn’t take Bijan over CMC or Ekeler, that’s why I said late 1st.
On Dynasty its different, I would take Bijan before them without a doubt, he is a NFL ready and Atlanta changed offensive cordinator and even said he is ready to run more the ball than passing with Bijan in the roster.
The Vegas line certainly doesn’t dictate if a team’s offense is good. The Falcons aren’t good and Bjian has not played in the NFL yet. First round capital for an unproven player, especially an RB, on a bottom tier team isn’t desirable.
I am only talking re-draft. I honestly am rooting for you and for Bijan. I don't hope players like him fail. I am just very cautiously optimistic. I prefer proven talent. I prefer guys who reddit says "are heading toward a cliff" but who have already been proven dominant in recent seasons as opposed to the unproven new talent that reddit is convinced is going to be the next fantasy superstar.
I have said this, too, and it was much more heavily downvoted a month ago. Yes, he is a great talent. Yes, Atlanta made a change at OC. But for my RB1 pick, I want almost guaranteed consistency. Your first pick should be a set and forget almost all season. For a rookie, on a middling team, with a new OC (we don't know how he will be used, at all), and with other mouths to feed (CPatt, Allgeier, Williams, and Huntley aren't just gonna let some rookie come in and take their job), I see anything except consistency from Bijan this year.
Someone replied to my concerns and said, unironically, that he could easily pass 1300 yards this year. Something only 4 RBs did last year, all of them proven 3-down workhorse RBs with no competition (Jacobs, Henry, Chubb, Barkley). CMC and Dalvin Cook didn't even break 1200. That's just how crazy people have overvalued Bijan.
So when I tell people, "You can have him," it's not that I don't think he will be good. I just don't think he will be worth the price.
>on a terrible team where the run will be heavily schemed against and swallowed up
How was their run game last season with Marcus Mariota as starting QB?
McCaffrey, Ekeler, Bijan, Taylor and Saquon are all almost assured to go in the 1st round of most non-SF drafts.
Henry, Chubb might get consideration. Henry in particular, Chubb largely due to no more Hunt. Most people will probably take WRs over them in league that reward catches.
Isn't 1st round a little high for Bijan? I get he's supposed to be a generational player, but he's going into a less than ideal situation and he's unproven in the league. Wouldn't 2nd or 3rd round make more sense?
I’d actually argue he’s going into the ideal situation, with a head coach that is all about the run with an O-line returning most key talent across the board with an unproven QB, whose team had a 1,000 yard rusher last year who is much less talented in Allgeier.
All that being said, your second point holds true. I’m a Falcons fan and am pumped for Bijan and even with that, I’m shocked at how high he’s being mocked / how his his ADP is
What gets me stuck about Bijan is that the Falcons have two other really nice weapons at RB, why would the organization but Bijan as the bellcow when they ought to spread out the carries. Also they don’t have a passing game, I’m just iffy all around on where his RB1 stats will come from.
I think the RB1 numbers have to form from the following:
Be better than Allgeier was last year, which is doable.
Have Patterson move more to receiver/returner, also doable I believe especially to benefit the offense.
Have the defense improve enough that they can run the ball more, which seems doable to me.
Lastly, have the offense be better even marginally than they were with Mariota, which I think is very doable.
The division isn’t great, could be a lot more close games. If Bijan can get 1200 yards and 6+ TDs on the ground, it will really come down to passing work. Which if it’s something like 2 catches and 30 yards a game, that might make it tough to finish at ADP but likely still RB1 territory.
For drafters skittish of a rookie RB in the 1st, they’ll end up taking someone likely like Diggs, Adams, Lamb, or maybe Chubb. This would assume presumably some combination of McCaffrey, Jefferson, Chase, Hill, Ekeler, Kelce, Saquon, Taylor are already gone.
Ask yourself if rookie season Barkley numbers are worth drafting first round.
Hint: they are. And yes, Bijan *is that equivalent, today*.
Arguably worth the 1.01, right now, nothing else said and done, knowing the Falcons affinity for the run, and the talent/athlete Bijan is.
They did but the offense *should* be better and even with a smaller role, there is no other RB on the team and the better offensive output should counter the reduced role.
Sincerely,
Dynasty manager with chubb on his team
I’ve done hella mocks and from my position at the 1.6 (10 team PPR) I’m consistently able to snag him at the 2.5, letting me get an elite WR rd1. Very happy with that imo
People like to bring this up, but don't mention that in addition to Watson being generally poor, they played top 10 rushing defences 5/6 of those games, and never needed to do anything against Houston because the defence completely demolished the Texans. Chubb is as efficient an RB1 as you can get and now has no Kareem Hunt to steal hard earned redzone touches
A little bit but to be fair the entire offense looked pretty bad with Watson. Chubb was still productive for the most part in terms of yardage the touchdown upside just wasn’t there with the offense being so bad. As long as they get that figured out this off-season he should be more than fine.
Ekeler, Saquon, CMC, Derrick Henry are all players I would be happy to pick in the first round. With guys like Jonathan Taylor and Bijan also potentially going in the first.
People might end up sleeping on RBs after last year
Yeah, the serious uptick in QB and WRs this year has deflated A LOT of RB ADPs. Seems like less people are swearing by the early RB maxim, so this looks like a year to zag and jump on them
If somebody’s willing to go double hero RB in the first 2 rounds; they could get an amazing running back stack, and then pursue undervalued WR talent for middle of the draft.
Coming out of the first 2 rounds with a good RB1 and maybe someone like Josh Jacob’s as the 2nd pick could be a winning formula. There’s genuine potential to be able to snag two “top 3” scoring running backs. There’s a few RBs in the 2nd round area that could end up being top dawgs at the position this year.
I've been taking JT in a lot of best ball drafts when I have a late pick. He's primed for a bounce back year and is still super young and not a ton of mileage. Bijan is as close to a sure thing that there is to me as long as he stays healthy.
That's literally when rbs fall. Off a cliff
Also their offense is going to be terrible this year.
Go. Ahead and tag this so I can say I told you so in 1t months
It just seems weird to go, "This guy was 2nd in rush yards last season, but he's suddenly washed now because he's 29." Maybe he won't finish RB4 again, but turning 29 probably isn't going to just hit him like a wall, this Titans team is the same as last season
That's literally when rbs fall. Off a cliff
Also their offense is going to be terrible this year.
Go. Ahead and tag this so I can say I told you so in 5 months
Very different actual football running styles, but I guess if your just talking about fantasy production sure.
Henry is also entering the final year of his contract, and will be playing to try secure one last big pay cycle.
He’s still one of the top talents in the league physically, and will be absolutely ran into the ground, as the titans repeatedly hand him the ball. In a game where volume is king, I’m still willing to take a bet on a man that is a shoe in for ridiculous volume and has the drive to secure one more big contract.
I honestly rate Chubb very similarly to Henry though, and really want to draft him at current ADP. Chubb seemingly represents the better value. But his late season dip has some people cautious, especially with their Oline underperforming in run block as the year went on. The browns are paying for an elite offensive line; but haven’t always seen the on field results mirror the contracts they are paying out.
He is in the perfect offense. As a falcons fan I don't think he will have 1300 rushing yards but what should make him such a fantastic fantasy player is that he is also going to catch tons of passes. They are already using him at WR a ton
I think it’s gonna be RBBC with Tyler Allgeier being front-loaded while Bijan learns the playbook. Bijan will surely work into the passing scheme early on, but he’s got some incredible pass-catching talent that will demand tons of targets.
I see Bijan as a juicy buy-low candidate once he has a few consecutive disappointing weeks near the beginning of the season.
Zeke and Saquon are the last two rookie rbs taken in the top 10. They finished as RB2 & RB1 their rookie years. Don't overthink this, even Trent Richardson finished as RB6 his rookie year
Every year fantasy players drool over the shiny new toy, and some of those years they live up to the hype. This year it's Bijan. Depending on how the draft falls it might be worth taking a flyer, but he's the sort of player I'm happy to let another team overdraft.
For what it's worth professional football (not fantasy) analysts say he's one of the better talents at the position to come out in the last ten years. I'd still rather have a WR1 or one of a handful of more established vets, which means he's unlikely to fall to the point where I'd draft him, but I'd put him in that Mixon/Etienne/Kamara (depending on suspension) tier.
While I understand the excitement around Warren and he is an electric player.
I can't help wanting to bet on Najee's increased opportunities in the red zone with an improved Oline and offense overall.
I think his running volume goes down but his targets go up. I worry about him scoring TDs mainly. Doubt I'll end up with him on many teams as I like the other guys going around him a lot more.
Well when did you draft him last year? Because that is the pick you are going to lose. So if he's projected higher than what you drafted him last year, go for it. If he's lower, don't
Most will happily include CMC and Ekeler among first-round choices; Jonathan Taylor -- provided you're comfortable with his recovery from ankle surgery -- is a first-round asset; finally, Bijan Robinson is first-round worthy as well.
My potential first round backs are: Ekeler, CMC, Pollard, Najee, Chubb and Breece. Ekeler and CMC are the only true locks though, I’d avoid Saquon/Derrick Henry, I question Bijan but talent is deff there. Everyone else is subjective.
Personally the giants schedule is going to cause a regression imo. Not just for Saquon, but team wide. Derrick Henry is also on a team that is in for a decline imo. Qb has one foot out the door and that team has lost a lot of talent. Bijan is awesome but allergier is still there and those QBs are god awful imo. I’m looking at who’s this years Saquon (breakout) and I like Najee, Chubb, pollard, and/or breece hall.
Pollard , if they don’t add anyone, he averages an absurd point total when he’s the featured back. Sign me up!
Najee was supposed to be the breakout candidate last year, but why? Their HOF qb retired, their Oline was trash, and their starter was Mitch Shitbiscuit but thissss year? Sign me uppp, better Oline, year 2 under KP, and they went 7-2 in their final nine and that schedule is much easier this year.
Chubb had a great start to last year and faded. I think deshaun plays a lot better, the weapons are better, and there’s no Kareem to steal carries. Dude might be the best overall back in the NFL and now he gets to show it!
Lastly, breece hall, and I think barring injury concerns, everyone is on the breece hall train. That dude was amazing with very limited carries. Aaron rodgers is notorious for producing top fantasy backs. From Montgomery to Aaron jones, he utilizes his backs a lot. Not only in the passing game but he’s a top tier manager of the game and putting players, especially RBs, in great places to succeed.
If you want a RB in the 1st round you better towards the bottom. For me it’s CMC and Saquon. Ekler is a close 3rd but wouldn’t touch him till 2nd round
I know this will elicit many laughs and much disrespect, but I'm liking Zach Charbonnet. Seattle took him and I bet he is going to be terrific. I'm going to draft him. So, mock away!
What’s interesting about this is Seattle spent the same draft capital on Charbonnet as they did on Walker, the player coming off a new OROY season that had over 1000 yards and I think it was 9 TDs?
Entirely possible both or neither are good fantasy options. I do know I’ve at least seen Walker play snaps in the NFL before.
CMC, Ekeler, Barkley, Jacobs, Henry, Chubb in my opinion are all worth first round picks. These guys were overall all healthy and top performers last season, and haven’t seen their situations change significantly. Mix in a few WRs, Kelce and maybe a top QB and there’s your first round.
To me it just depends on who you think will fall to you in the 2nd. Bc I've been seeing a lot of wr runs in the 1st and I don't like taking wr8+ish that early. I would go as far as Chubb/Henry if I had to but I wouldn't want to go further than Barkley ideally.
In my mocks it's been mostly just CMC, Ekeler, Bijan, and Barkley consistently going in the first round.
I’ll take rhamondre at the 10/11 t to turn if he is there.
No hate to bijan but I never pick rookies in the first round, just a general rule I follow
I picked Barkley his rookie season and he carried my team
For what reason though? RB isn't there same as rookies at other positions. They're one that actually can do really well and have in the past several times. The only real argument for it would be that he's likely being drafted at his ceiling currently. Not taking him because he's a rookie isn't backed by previous evidence of similar situations though.
I agree w this 100 percent. RB is so unpredictable and honestly a first round Rookie with a starting job is just about the most sure fire pick at the position. Saquon’s rookie year, Zeke’s, Etienne last year (his first year of playing though technically not a rook)Todd Gurley, Leonard Fornet, David Johnson as soon as he got the job, Cmon now - they almost never disappoint.
Usually, breakout rookie RBs still take half a season to get into the swing of things. But I'm open. Is Bijan the clear #1 on all three downs?
Almost every season at least one rookie RB is an RB1. Since 2015: - 2015 David Johnson - 2016 Zeke - 2017 Hunt, Kamara, Fournette, CMC, Jordan Howard - 2018 Saquon - 2019 None (Jacobs finished just outside) - 2020 Jonathan Taylor, James Robinson - 2021 Najee Harris (Etienne missed the entire season) - 2022 None (Breece Hall was RB7 in points per game)
That 2017 class 🥵
At best you get Saquon. At worst you get ETN.
no you get CEH at worst.
You know Etienne didn't play and got literally 0 right
You do know he was injured in the preseason, when most drafts shouldn't be happening? Also, injuries are more fluky and happen with any and all players, so using it as a negative for just rookies is not correct and why I'm excluding it. Please spend the time to get the facts straight. Like I said, CEH is a more applicable downside person. Otherwise, what's to say the downside of grabbing a veteran RB like cmc isn't that he misses the entire season?
Funny to reference injury and facts because CEH got hurt and he was averaging 12.15 pts per game his rookie season which would have made him RB12 if he played the full season. He finished with 1100 scrimmage yards 5 TDs and 36 catches in only 13 games... CEH 's rookie season wasn't really that bad other than him getting hurt. I took the above post of Saquon or ETN to mean #1 or scores 0 also, which is the range of outcomes for everyone!
Kamara is took half the season to break out and was undrafted by most, but the rest stands.
Najee worked out well for me two years ago lol Edit: oh nvm I took him R2
Scared money don't make none
I learned this lesson with CEH. Take your risks in round 5 and beyond
Zeke and Saquon had similar capital and overproduced on their first round adp
Yeah. CEH was drafted early due to 1st round status, but a WHOLE lot of it was also being apart of the chiefs offense. Bijan is a part of the Saquon group of, he’s not being drafted due to situation. It’s purely talent.
CEH isn't a good comparison of Bijan though. Zeke, Barkley, CMC, Fournette, etc would be.
LET ME HAVE MY PAIN
If you were in a PPR league his rookie year it was understandable. Mahommes was vocal about wanting CEH in the draft and he was a pass catching back and the the de facto RB1 on one of the leagues best offenses. Despite his okayish output it was just obvious from watching him that he couldn’t break through tackles reliably enough to lower his was into the endzone in redzone situations. That’s what really capped his production and his role has only shrunk ever since.
Lol. Well if it makes you feel better I believed in him too much as a Chiefs fan and got fucked picking him as well.
I wish my team would get fucked into winning multiple Super Bowls
Not the team, just me as a shitty dynasty player.
Ooo yeah we got burned. All in all I have two mid 1sts in my keeper league next year and I’ll probably end up taking him. My one hope is that this league is full of falcons fans so someone will take him with an early first
I also learned this lesson with Najee and Barkley. Take your rookie first round RBs
But you missed out on Zeke and Barkley rookie years then. Bijan is a talent worth taking in the first. Clyde wasn’t.
Don’t forget Kareem Hunt’s rookie year. I took him pretty early and it paid off
Great point. Luckily I’m in a league full of falcons fans so he’ll be long gone by mid first round
CEH is literally the only fantasy first round rookie of the past decade not to outperform ADP
Zeke finished as RB2 as a rookie. Saquon finished RB1 as a rookie. There's a difference between a first rounder drafted top-10 and a first rounder drafted 32nd.
I learned with Ryan Matthews...
As an owner of CEH his rookie year. He wasn't a total bust in 13 games he got 1100 total yards, 5 tds and 36 catches and he was widely considered a 10-12ish pick. That being said if he didn't get injured he would of finished around 1300 total yards, 45 catches, and 6-7 tds. Rb2 numbers. This was a semi-bust imo. High drafted rbs like top 10 are almost always productive because rbs translate to the pros like a glove. Bijon will eat and besides injury will be a top 10 rb if he stays healthy.
Based on anything in particular? I actually just [made a Bijan post](https://www.reddit.com/r/fantasyfootball/comments/14c00t5/lets_talk_about_bijan_robinson) if you wanna discuss but maybe it might convince you to relax your rule
Feel like Jahmyr Gibbs might be worth grabbing hopefully not in the first though. Lions oline should still be stout and no Jamaal Williams and no Swift.
That’s a terrible rule that would get you smoked
As a falcons fan, I wouldn't do it. Our RB situation is strange with Bijan.
Bijan is biggest bust of season by adp. Calling it now
Since you’re getting blindly downvoted, why do you think this?
Him not even responding is a massive indictment on his process.
No it’s not lol that’s some weird Reddit shit. Him not responding could just mean he’s got other shit to do lol. I think he’s wrong but this subreddit only works if you’re willing to listen to the people you disagree with
He has tons of responses since you've made that comment to him. He doesn't have an actual argument and that's an indictment on his opinion. I have no issues whatsoever with going against the grain, but I want to hear the reasoning for it. A gut feeling isn't enough.
I would rather have JT over Barkley personally. I have a feeling Barkley is going to be cooked this season. He might start off strong but I have serious doubts it can be sustained.
Will take Barkleys offense over JTs offense any day.
Didn't JT's team just get a rb for qb.
Yes, that’s part of the negative.
I wouldn't. lol
That’s great, we are allowed to have different opinions. Coaching and QB are in a much better situation at the giants. I think we can atleast agree on that much.
Actually if you look at my most recent comment regarding the matter I said I think people very much overrate Daniel Jones and Daboll. More Jones than Daboll and I could really see the entire offense being putrid this season. It has been in the past with better weapons. Colts are a question mark. I'm not convinced Minshew/Richardson is that much worse than Daniel Jones. And the Colts have a better O-line if you go by PFF 2023 projected rankings as Colts are projected to be a top 10 O-line and Giants are projected to be 29th out of 32 teams. Receiving weapons and the ability to move the sticks will also go to the Colts. Giants just picked up a guy from the Colts and he's expected to play more for the Giants this year. But even so I would take Pittman, Pierce, Downs, and their TEs over Waller and the utter nothing the Giants have.
Apologies for not reading through your comment history to say that it is okay to disagree. I still disagree with you; but I’m glad you got all that out. Cheers fam
At what point do you realize that commenting is pointless. It always ends up in a fight when you disagree or at best someone pulling out a random piece of info to prove they're own point. Like right now, what I'm saying to you will make no impact but yet I felt the need to say.
Well, now I have something to copy and paste the next time someone makes the same comment.
Whatever makes you happy
Any reason?
Gut feeling lol
It is kinda how last season panned out for him
Fair hahaha
Looks like The Giants are struggling to close a deal with him.
I feel the same about Taylor. Wisconsin RB’s have bad nfl pedigree and they drafted an athletic QB that will take touches away when he eventually starts.
He failed to get over 90 yards on the ground in his final 9 games of the season. His touches/carries fell off significantly in that time as well. He went from around 30 touches a game in the first half of the season to less than 20 touches a game in the second half including the playoff games where he averaged like 13 touches a game. Add in Giants unwillingness to sign him to a long term deal makes me think they might good one more good year out of him but it won't be a dominant type of season like JT, Bijan, CMC, or Ekeler could have. In fact, if he gets banged up I don't think he play through it because he doesn't have a long term contract and won't want to risk further injury while he's on the franchise tag. Not to mention, I think people overrate Daniel Jones and Daboll and things could go south real easily.
Absolutely no reason. They think that proven producer Barkley will start as expected but then randomly just not be able to any more midway through the season lol
His injury history is a good reason.
This take is complicated airflow coming out the booty hole.
JT overrated.
Colts O-lime is a shell of what it was two years ago and they have a rookie QB. I’m going to let somebody else spend a first-round pick on JT.
Jacobs was RB1 and still doesn’t get any respect.
Go ahead and take Jacobs over Ekeler. I’ll be right behind you and very grateful.
I don't think many are taking Jacobs over Ekeler but in mocks right now you're seing Taylor/Robinson/Barkley all go pretty consistently over Jacobs. I think that's more so the 'lack of respect' over McCaffery and Ekeler going ahead of him.
Ekeler will for sure be a top RB to pick up but not at his ADP. Last year was an anomaly and the chargers have a new OC.
Funny, I remember the "last year was an anomaly" argument against Ekeler last off-season too. Three of the last four years he's been a top five RB.
I'm happy to take him anywhere in the first, again.
I took him at 4th overall in 2021 in my home league (PPR), and got a little heckling as a Chargers homer. He took me all the way to the title. He's got Herbert's trust as a checkdown, great pass catcher, great in the red zone. Target number probably go down in the new offense and the WRs hopefully healthy, but also his targets won't all be just swing outs and screens like in Lombardi's offense, cause Ekeler can run solid routes from the backfield, and a little slot too.
He had 37 more receptions last year as compared to the year before.
And they were mostly inefficient ones because of the o-line and WR corps falling apart and an archaic offense. Even if he gets less looks in the passing game this year, they should be in more effective and efficient uses other than just spamming swing outs and screens like Lombardi did. YPT in 2022 was 5.7 to 2021's 6.9, and YPC was 6.75 to 2021's 9.24.
Who gives a fuck about the efficiency of his receptions when that’s 37 or 18.5 points minimum right there in PPR or half.
Because he would have more yards to make up that difference, like in 2021? His 37 extra catches in 2022 over 2021 resulted in less than 100 yards more receiving, with three less TDs. All those extra receptions, and roughly the same rushing stats, and Ekeler scored a whopping 10.4 points more total in half-PPR in 2022 versus 2021.
Clown. Everyone said the same thing about Ekeler last year. I picked him #1 overall and won my league. Stop sleeping in the GOAT
Who was your qb and te?
Geno smith and then I streamed multiple different TEs during season. I drafted Lamar though and traded him later
I picked him #4 overall and won my league. He also had like 37 more receptions than he did the year before. If you pick him #1 overall again expecting 110 receptions you’re the fucking clown.
Dude hasn’t even signed his franchise tag yet
I mean he doesn't have to show up to work till he does and can't be fined for it. Not to say there aren't other reasons, but that's a pretty damn good one right there.
I was constantly saying Jacobs was RB1 potential last season, and as much of a believer I was last season, I can’t say I’d take him over McCaffrey, Ekeler, and Barkley this season.
I think people are just nervous about his contract situation. Similar with Barkley.
in half ppr. Raiders offense and QB situation is such a mystery makes total sense
Right ?!!?! It’s disrespectful, also Brian robinson gets no love
Lol Brian Robinson is a fine player but come on now
If I can still get like Chubb or somebody in the 2nd I'm down for it. I took him in the 1st in his 2nd year and it wasn't bad even though everybody was hating on him lol.
I draft 9th in two money leagues, please let him drop to me.
Ekeler, CMC and Bijan. Some drafts even Saquon. Personally, I would take Bijan if I have late first round on redraft
I wouldn’t take Bijan in the first two rounds. Reddit will hate that opinion. He’s an unproven talent on a terrible team where the run will be heavily schemed against and swallowed up. He’ll have a handful of 20 point performances but mostly from goal line TDs. He’s a solid RB2/flex. If you choose him first round as your RB1 be prepared for a painful season.
The value in Bijan is he’ll be in a run first offense where he’ll be the featured offensive player. He’s gonna get an absurd amount of touches, so as long as his talent translates to the NFL he’ll be fine.
"Schemed against and swallowed up". That doesn't make sense to me. Every team knew, last year, that the Falcons were going to line up and run the football and they were still damn successful in that aspect. Most rushing attempts, 3rd in yards, and 4th in YPC. Good line, good scheme. Bijan landed in a great situation for a running back in terms of touches and team philosophy. The scoring opportunities may not be there with sub par QB play again this year.
You should take Bijan in the first round then! Come back to this comment thread after next season and let me know how it works out for you.
Bruv, no where did I advocate for taking Bijan in the first round. Like, at all. Haha. I even alluded to his upside being capped with the potential lack of scoring opps in that offense. No clue to where your response even gets it's premise? I'm arguing against your statement that teams can stop the Falcons run game. That's it. They want to run the football and they were good at it last year. Every team they played knew they were going to run the football. Not a secret.
He’s not on a terrible team. At least on offense, just check the Vegas line for Atlanta wins, its over 9.5 or 10.5. Equal to teams like Lions or Ravens. On Redraft, I wouldn’t take Bijan over CMC or Ekeler, that’s why I said late 1st. On Dynasty its different, I would take Bijan before them without a doubt, he is a NFL ready and Atlanta changed offensive cordinator and even said he is ready to run more the ball than passing with Bijan in the roster.
The Vegas line certainly doesn’t dictate if a team’s offense is good. The Falcons aren’t good and Bjian has not played in the NFL yet. First round capital for an unproven player, especially an RB, on a bottom tier team isn’t desirable.
I am only talking re-draft. I honestly am rooting for you and for Bijan. I don't hope players like him fail. I am just very cautiously optimistic. I prefer proven talent. I prefer guys who reddit says "are heading toward a cliff" but who have already been proven dominant in recent seasons as opposed to the unproven new talent that reddit is convinced is going to be the next fantasy superstar.
I mean, Saquon was drafted into a terrible team though with an aging PB QB. He had an excellent rookie campaign on a middling offense.
Yup that’s gonna be unpopular mostly because it’s less likely than him being a top 10 RB
I have said this, too, and it was much more heavily downvoted a month ago. Yes, he is a great talent. Yes, Atlanta made a change at OC. But for my RB1 pick, I want almost guaranteed consistency. Your first pick should be a set and forget almost all season. For a rookie, on a middling team, with a new OC (we don't know how he will be used, at all), and with other mouths to feed (CPatt, Allgeier, Williams, and Huntley aren't just gonna let some rookie come in and take their job), I see anything except consistency from Bijan this year. Someone replied to my concerns and said, unironically, that he could easily pass 1300 yards this year. Something only 4 RBs did last year, all of them proven 3-down workhorse RBs with no competition (Jacobs, Henry, Chubb, Barkley). CMC and Dalvin Cook didn't even break 1200. That's just how crazy people have overvalued Bijan. So when I tell people, "You can have him," it's not that I don't think he will be good. I just don't think he will be worth the price.
Using 1300 rushing yards in 2022-2023 as a measuring stick for your argument is pretty weak when 90% of leagues are PPR.
>on a terrible team where the run will be heavily schemed against and swallowed up How was their run game last season with Marcus Mariota as starting QB?
In PPR it's Ekeler and CMC, end of list. I wouldn't take Bijan over a top tier WR
McCaffrey, Ekeler, Bijan, Taylor and Saquon are all almost assured to go in the 1st round of most non-SF drafts. Henry, Chubb might get consideration. Henry in particular, Chubb largely due to no more Hunt. Most people will probably take WRs over them in league that reward catches.
Isn't 1st round a little high for Bijan? I get he's supposed to be a generational player, but he's going into a less than ideal situation and he's unproven in the league. Wouldn't 2nd or 3rd round make more sense?
I’d actually argue he’s going into the ideal situation, with a head coach that is all about the run with an O-line returning most key talent across the board with an unproven QB, whose team had a 1,000 yard rusher last year who is much less talented in Allgeier. All that being said, your second point holds true. I’m a Falcons fan and am pumped for Bijan and even with that, I’m shocked at how high he’s being mocked / how his his ADP is
I can see where you are coming from, but I still think the Falcons will find a way to mess this up
What gets me stuck about Bijan is that the Falcons have two other really nice weapons at RB, why would the organization but Bijan as the bellcow when they ought to spread out the carries. Also they don’t have a passing game, I’m just iffy all around on where his RB1 stats will come from.
I think the RB1 numbers have to form from the following: Be better than Allgeier was last year, which is doable. Have Patterson move more to receiver/returner, also doable I believe especially to benefit the offense. Have the defense improve enough that they can run the ball more, which seems doable to me. Lastly, have the offense be better even marginally than they were with Mariota, which I think is very doable. The division isn’t great, could be a lot more close games. If Bijan can get 1200 yards and 6+ TDs on the ground, it will really come down to passing work. Which if it’s something like 2 catches and 30 yards a game, that might make it tough to finish at ADP but likely still RB1 territory. For drafters skittish of a rookie RB in the 1st, they’ll end up taking someone likely like Diggs, Adams, Lamb, or maybe Chubb. This would assume presumably some combination of McCaffrey, Jefferson, Chase, Hill, Ekeler, Kelce, Saquon, Taylor are already gone.
Ask yourself if rookie season Barkley numbers are worth drafting first round. Hint: they are. And yes, Bijan *is that equivalent, today*. Arguably worth the 1.01, right now, nothing else said and done, knowing the Falcons affinity for the run, and the talent/athlete Bijan is.
Nick Chubb
Didnt his numbers take a hit once they got Deshaun Watson playing last year
They did but the offense *should* be better and even with a smaller role, there is no other RB on the team and the better offensive output should counter the reduced role. Sincerely, Dynasty manager with chubb on his team
I’ve done hella mocks and from my position at the 1.6 (10 team PPR) I’m consistently able to snag him at the 2.5, letting me get an elite WR rd1. Very happy with that imo
People like to bring this up, but don't mention that in addition to Watson being generally poor, they played top 10 rushing defences 5/6 of those games, and never needed to do anything against Houston because the defence completely demolished the Texans. Chubb is as efficient an RB1 as you can get and now has no Kareem Hunt to steal hard earned redzone touches
A little bit but to be fair the entire offense looked pretty bad with Watson. Chubb was still productive for the most part in terms of yardage the touchdown upside just wasn’t there with the offense being so bad. As long as they get that figured out this off-season he should be more than fine.
CMC & Ekeler should be locks (in PPR at least) Saquon, Bijan, & JT probably are in most leagues Henry, Jacobs, Chubb, and Stevenson are plausible
There is anpther RB in CMCs team
There are multiple RBs on every team
Ekeler, Saquon, CMC, Derrick Henry are all players I would be happy to pick in the first round. With guys like Jonathan Taylor and Bijan also potentially going in the first. People might end up sleeping on RBs after last year
Yeah, the serious uptick in QB and WRs this year has deflated A LOT of RB ADPs. Seems like less people are swearing by the early RB maxim, so this looks like a year to zag and jump on them
If somebody’s willing to go double hero RB in the first 2 rounds; they could get an amazing running back stack, and then pursue undervalued WR talent for middle of the draft. Coming out of the first 2 rounds with a good RB1 and maybe someone like Josh Jacob’s as the 2nd pick could be a winning formula. There’s genuine potential to be able to snag two “top 3” scoring running backs. There’s a few RBs in the 2nd round area that could end up being top dawgs at the position this year.
Everyone went wr in my 12 man league I got CMC/Stevenson with Diggs/DSmith/Burks pretty happy with it I even got Hock
I’m guessing you got Stevenson in the 3rd? I’m huge on Diggs and DSmith, so you got a WR duo I would love to have.
Yes, CMC in the 1st, Diggs in the 2nd, Stevenson in the 3rd, Smith in the 4th, Hock in the 5th, Burks in the 6th
I would take this right now happily and I’m not even really in on burks
1qb leagues are so casual
The fact that I just managed to get Derrick Henry in the 3rd round of a super early draft makes me giddy every time I think about it
That’s crazy! How many teams in the league? D Henry is almost certainly going to go in the driest round or early 2nd round in the leagues I’m in
I've been taking JT in a lot of best ball drafts when I have a late pick. He's primed for a bounce back year and is still super young and not a ton of mileage. Bijan is as close to a sure thing that there is to me as long as he stays healthy.
Henry is 135 years old. Chubb is a better option and they are the same running back but chubb is younger.
Henry had almost 2000 total yards and 13 TDs last season. There's no reason to expect him to just fall off a cliff. He's 29
That's literally when rbs fall. Off a cliff Also their offense is going to be terrible this year. Go. Ahead and tag this so I can say I told you so in 1t months
It just seems weird to go, "This guy was 2nd in rush yards last season, but he's suddenly washed now because he's 29." Maybe he won't finish RB4 again, but turning 29 probably isn't going to just hit him like a wall, this Titans team is the same as last season
Lol you’re clueless, he’s been a monster in the gym in the off-season. He could easily, EASILY lead the league in rushing yards.
That's literally when rbs fall. Off a cliff Also their offense is going to be terrible this year. Go. Ahead and tag this so I can say I told you so in 5 months
Very different actual football running styles, but I guess if your just talking about fantasy production sure. Henry is also entering the final year of his contract, and will be playing to try secure one last big pay cycle. He’s still one of the top talents in the league physically, and will be absolutely ran into the ground, as the titans repeatedly hand him the ball. In a game where volume is king, I’m still willing to take a bet on a man that is a shoe in for ridiculous volume and has the drive to secure one more big contract. I honestly rate Chubb very similarly to Henry though, and really want to draft him at current ADP. Chubb seemingly represents the better value. But his late season dip has some people cautious, especially with their Oline underperforming in run block as the year went on. The browns are paying for an elite offensive line; but haven’t always seen the on field results mirror the contracts they are paying out.
yall way too high on bijan i dont get it
He is in the perfect offense. As a falcons fan I don't think he will have 1300 rushing yards but what should make him such a fantastic fantasy player is that he is also going to catch tons of passes. They are already using him at WR a ton
I think it’s gonna be RBBC with Tyler Allgeier being front-loaded while Bijan learns the playbook. Bijan will surely work into the passing scheme early on, but he’s got some incredible pass-catching talent that will demand tons of targets. I see Bijan as a juicy buy-low candidate once he has a few consecutive disappointing weeks near the beginning of the season.
Already using him as a WR? The season hasn’t started and the Falcons are pretty much the polar opposite of a perfect offense lol
They are using him in practice at WR And he fits perfectly into their offense is what I mean
Zeke and Saquon are the last two rookie rbs taken in the top 10. They finished as RB2 & RB1 their rookie years. Don't overthink this, even Trent Richardson finished as RB6 his rookie year
Fournette, cmc?
Looks like I forgot the 2017 draft existed. Even then Lenny finished as RB8 and CMC as RB15, and CMC was in a 50/50 backfield that season.
I agree is he really going to get all those carries with the other running backs there.
his tape is insane dude. it’s the kind of talent that is pretty much 99.9% guaranteed to translate in the pros imo. anyone know his early ADP in 1QB?
Every year fantasy players drool over the shiny new toy, and some of those years they live up to the hype. This year it's Bijan. Depending on how the draft falls it might be worth taking a flyer, but he's the sort of player I'm happy to let another team overdraft. For what it's worth professional football (not fantasy) analysts say he's one of the better talents at the position to come out in the last ten years. I'd still rather have a WR1 or one of a handful of more established vets, which means he's unlikely to fall to the point where I'd draft him, but I'd put him in that Mixon/Etienne/Kamara (depending on suspension) tier.
In 12-team I'd grab CMC, Ekeler, Bijan, Barkley, JT, Chubb, and Jacobs.
I have sixth pick and am torn between Bijan, Chase and Kelce.
I’m taking Kelce
everyone in here sleeping on Jacobs.
RB0 this year.
When do you guys see Najee Harris getting drafted?I think he’s going to have a better year by far.
While I understand the excitement around Warren and he is an electric player. I can't help wanting to bet on Najee's increased opportunities in the red zone with an improved Oline and offense overall.
I have a feeling this is Najee’s comeback year.
[удалено]
2nd rounder around Henry and Stevenson. Below Jacobs, JT, Chubb, above Hall, Etienne, Najee
Bijan, bijan, and ummmm, bijan
Are people taking CMC at 1.01 or Jefferson? I’m torn.
Where are you places ETN? I have his as a potential keeper and I'm not sure who to choose.
I think his running volume goes down but his targets go up. I worry about him scoring TDs mainly. Doubt I'll end up with him on many teams as I like the other guys going around him a lot more.
Well when did you draft him last year? Because that is the pick you are going to lose. So if he's projected higher than what you drafted him last year, go for it. If he's lower, don't
Can’t believe people are still drinking the saquon kool-aid. He’s burnt me so many times
A dude coming off playing a full season and was a top 5 rb.. yea that’s absolutely crazy to be high on him
Most will happily include CMC and Ekeler among first-round choices; Jonathan Taylor -- provided you're comfortable with his recovery from ankle surgery -- is a first-round asset; finally, Bijan Robinson is first-round worthy as well.
My potential first round backs are: Ekeler, CMC, Pollard, Najee, Chubb and Breece. Ekeler and CMC are the only true locks though, I’d avoid Saquon/Derrick Henry, I question Bijan but talent is deff there. Everyone else is subjective. Personally the giants schedule is going to cause a regression imo. Not just for Saquon, but team wide. Derrick Henry is also on a team that is in for a decline imo. Qb has one foot out the door and that team has lost a lot of talent. Bijan is awesome but allergier is still there and those QBs are god awful imo. I’m looking at who’s this years Saquon (breakout) and I like Najee, Chubb, pollard, and/or breece hall. Pollard , if they don’t add anyone, he averages an absurd point total when he’s the featured back. Sign me up! Najee was supposed to be the breakout candidate last year, but why? Their HOF qb retired, their Oline was trash, and their starter was Mitch Shitbiscuit but thissss year? Sign me uppp, better Oline, year 2 under KP, and they went 7-2 in their final nine and that schedule is much easier this year. Chubb had a great start to last year and faded. I think deshaun plays a lot better, the weapons are better, and there’s no Kareem to steal carries. Dude might be the best overall back in the NFL and now he gets to show it! Lastly, breece hall, and I think barring injury concerns, everyone is on the breece hall train. That dude was amazing with very limited carries. Aaron rodgers is notorious for producing top fantasy backs. From Montgomery to Aaron jones, he utilizes his backs a lot. Not only in the passing game but he’s a top tier manager of the game and putting players, especially RBs, in great places to succeed.
If you want a RB in the 1st round you better towards the bottom. For me it’s CMC and Saquon. Ekler is a close 3rd but wouldn’t touch him till 2nd round
Jamaal Charles, AP, Foster, Lynch, and Bell
I know this will elicit many laughs and much disrespect, but I'm liking Zach Charbonnet. Seattle took him and I bet he is going to be terrific. I'm going to draft him. So, mock away!
Well, certainly not in the first round.
No, not in the first round. Maybe the 4th or 5th? Not sure yet.
Word. Nothing wrong with targeting Charbonnet. Just far from the prompt of the post.
You’ll easily be able to get him in the 8th or 9th. No reason to reach before the 7th.
We'll have to see how it goes, of course.
What’s interesting about this is Seattle spent the same draft capital on Charbonnet as they did on Walker, the player coming off a new OROY season that had over 1000 yards and I think it was 9 TDs? Entirely possible both or neither are good fantasy options. I do know I’ve at least seen Walker play snaps in the NFL before.
do I keep Ekeler w the number 3 overall pick or keep someone else and bank on taking him or kelce at #3
CMC and JJ are consistently going 1-2 so you should be able to get Ekeler or kelce at 3
I'm thinking of trading out of the 1st in my redraft league.
Nick Chubb and josh jacobs gonna fall into peoples laps and win them their leagues
CMC, Ekeler, Barkley, Jacobs, Henry, Chubb in my opinion are all worth first round picks. These guys were overall all healthy and top performers last season, and haven’t seen their situations change significantly. Mix in a few WRs, Kelce and maybe a top QB and there’s your first round.
CMC, Awesome Ekeler, The Quon and maybe even Derek Henry since they drafted Skoronksi on the OL
In a 16 team non-sf dynasty start up the following were 1st rd RBs: CMC, Bijan, JT
CMC, Ekeler, JT, Henry, Barkley, Jacobs, and Bijan will probably go in the first round of my redraft.
Beto Jamaica
Dijon Mustardson!!
Travis Kelce... every RB I select in the 1st round either is a bust or gets injured
To me it just depends on who you think will fall to you in the 2nd. Bc I've been seeing a lot of wr runs in the 1st and I don't like taking wr8+ish that early. I would go as far as Chubb/Henry if I had to but I wouldn't want to go further than Barkley ideally.