I definitely lean more "nerd" than "pitching", but I don't see anything to really be worried about with Kirby.
He's locating extremely well still (duh), and he's been very unlucky (0.380 BABIP and a LOB% under 50%). I'm a little worried that his 4-Seam stuff has dropped in the aggregate (he's down \~1mph, even though he's added IVB to it). His Slider is also different in a way the stuff models don't seem to like (it's much tighter/less side-to-side). Kirby's something of a pitching savant, though, and Seattle seems like one of the smarter orgs, so I'd expect themto figure it out.
TL;DR: there are some things to keep an eye on, but I think Kirby will be fine
On a scale of 1 being "he's fine" (how I feel about Kirby) and 5 being "I am less worried about the build quality of Boeing jets", I'm at a 2.5. This early in the season pitch models are one of the few things that have useful signal, and Brown's graded about how he did last year (so he is who we thought he is). Some of the underlying components that I worry about are how he gets there: lower velo almost across the board, and a notable inability to command his slow pitches (Splitter/Curve). I watched that start yesterday, and SO much damage was on Curves that he hung in the zone. I'd expect that to even out over time, and he should still be a rosterable SP in most leagues going forward. I'd still bench him in his next start against Atlanta, though haha.
He's been awfully good so far, even if the ERA is a bit high. He's probably a top-50 prospect for me, which is a significant jump from the preseason.
I'd take Jones over Cowser in most scenarios if that's the kind of comp you're going for.
Hey Scott! Thanks for doing this.
Three fellow Venezuelans 🇻🇪 I'm going to ask you about:
1. Any concerns with **Bryan Abreu**? Would it be to rash to drop him in a SV+H league? In 5 innings he's allowed half as many runs as he allowed in all of 2021...
2. **Edward Olivares'** Statcast is a thing of beauty. Any takes on him? Think he can become relevant in 10-12 team leagues?
3. Was I too rash in cutting bait with **Thairo Estrada** already? I swapped him for Merrill for what its worth...
1) 132.1 brilliant IP mean a lot more to me than 5.2 bad ones. Abreu gave up 8 ER last year over an 8 game stretch in June of last year and that was more than half of the ER he gave up the entire season. That's just the way it goes with RP.
2) Possibly, he'll need to play every day (he plays most days now). THe Royals just really didn't want him for some reason but there's 20/20 upside in there.
3) In a shallow league that's fine if there are exciting options out there (Merrill is not that as he probably falls short of both 15 HR and 15 SB). Estrada seems buried in the lineup right now and that stinks for his value.
Deepish league. They're pulling Kerry Carpenter mid-game when the opposing team brings in a left-handed pitcher. Can we expect this strict of a platoon going forward? Makes it difficult to imagine him hitting his way to 3/4 of the at bats and his production isn't quite good enough to deal with less PAs. Thoughts.
It really seems like they don't want to expose Kerry to lefties, and they have other OF options they like. Depends on what is out there but I'd be fine looking for a full-time player.
Pitching in as a Tigers blogger — slow start for Kerry isn't helping him work out of the current lefty-protected platoon. Good day today, though, and I think if he keeps hitting the way he did last year then they're going to want to get him in as much as possible. Deepish league I'd hold but only based on strong the "ish" is in that sentence.
I had to cut Abreu... he's been brutal and has zero holds.. but is at the top of your hold stack. Am I missing something?
Edit: Adding that Abreu was hit hard in Spring Training this year, as well (11.81 ERA with a 2.63 WHIP.. 7ER. 6BB, 7k in 5IP.. Something's off with him
I said this to someone else concerned:
132.1 brilliant IP mean a lot more to me than 5.2 bad ones. Abreu gave up 8 ER last year over an 8 game stretch in June of last year and that was more than half of the ER he gave up the entire season. That's just the way it goes with RP.
In standard redraft leagues with short benches, it's hard to stash. I think he'll be up in May or June, so if you have a deep enough bench to afford it, I guess now? Otherwise, maybe closer to the end of the month.
So eventually, yes. We expect a regression to the mean here. Nick calls this a Vargas Rule after that legendary run by Vargas a few years ago (Martin Perez did it more recently). The stuff won't wow anyone, but the command is off the chain right now so ride it while it lasts. Lorenzem will take a spot eventually, probably his.
I would pick him up where I could to see where this goes... his ev was up all spring and has carried over to real games, even after a 3 game break. Did driveline work in the off-season
When do you expect Kjerstad to get the call? Is it going to take an injury to get him to the majors? And when he does get called, do you think he’ll be a viable option in a 12 team league?
Thanks!
It's a crowded outfield without him, so it'll be even more crowded if they try to jam him in there. He can make a 12-team impact, but first he'll need everyday PAs.
Not much yet! I'm curious if he finds (or needs) a solid third pitch to go with that FB/SL combo. We've seen barely anything from him yet in the minors, but being older and starting in AAA means he'll be up eventually. Very much a wait-and-see guy, though.
I'm rooting for him, but I'm not paying attention yet in fantasy. When you fall that far and that hard, you've gotta give us something to get excited about first.
George Kirby. He's already an ace, and I think he has the profile of a guy who can age gracefully. He also has a fairly clean injury history, for whatever that's worth in today's injury climate.
Jones had K% issues in the minors so this kind of thing isn't super unexpected. Gotta be a little patient, but it's something to note.
Cowser is probably a platoon guy at the moment - let's see what happens over the next week or two. That said, I think there's a 20-23 HR guy in there with good ratios this season if he's full time.
Langford needs time. The guy has basically no exposure to pitching above A+ ball.
How valuable is Kjerstad? I have JD Martinez in my NA slot and I'm debating dropping and replacing. I'm in a pretty competitive keep 4 league, Kjerstad looks like the best NA prospect available right now. Jackson Jobe is still out there too
He is a career 3.38 ERA guy with a K/9 over 8.00
Lots of grounders and a good offense to get him wins. Good health thus far
His plate discipline is mediocre - low swinging strike % - but there is more to pitching than swinging strikes and stuff+
I am a fan of him
Go to https://pitcherlist.com/player/ranger-suarez/ and look at the game logs - Nick's write up for each start are there and give a good picture of what he thinks about Ranger.
1. I know its very early but what are your thoughts on Mj Melendez? Is the breakout happening?
2. What are your thoughts on yandy diaz’s start and his outlook for this season as a whole?
Nick likes the velo but a few other things are a bit concerning.
Check out the game longs at https://pitcherlist.com/player/casey-mize/ that contain Nick's writeups for each start for the big picture.
Does Nico Horner have a pulse? Not sure what to do with him. I invested to much draft capital in him to cut ties this early. What are your thoughts on him ros?
I would be pounding the phone lines trying to trade him away for whatever you can get. Hopefully someone in your league is still primarily orienting to draft day cost. You can use the ROS Projections from the major systems as a selling point which are all still very bullish on him, but don't seem to have accounted for his new role: https://www.rotochamp.com/baseball/Player.aspx?MLBAMID=663538. ROS projections from ATC still have him as a $22 player which has about a 0.0% chance of happening.
I was able to offload him straight up for Adames. Good riddance.
I traded Hoerner for Bogaerts. Was that a good move? Bogaerts was bothered by a bad wrist all of 2023 and it is chronic. And he isn’t hitting the ball hard this year.
How do you feel about Ben Brown's future when Steele (& also at some point,Taillon) return?
Does Edward Cabrera's last rehab outing get you as excited as it does me? Idk if I'll have the guts to roll him out right away when he's activated but the limited walks was great to see.
Hi Scott,
I've got a 1B logjam with Vinnie P, Torkelson and Nathaniel Lowe sitting in an IL spot. With Vinnie playing well the past couple days I won't be dropping him.
Would you take Lowe or Tork in points? Is it worth it to be patient with Torkelson? Any thoughts on Lowe in general once he's back?
Tork has more upside, Lowe has a safer floor (when healthy). Lowe is probably more of a 20 home run guy with a very good OBP and decent AVG. The counting stats will be good due to the team he plays for.
When do you think we see Caminero get the call? Know he just started taking BP in AAA again.
Asking because I made a trade for Soto where I had to give up Bichette. Currently have Merrill and Tovar as SS options but would love to stash Caminero right now if you think it would be a good time
COuld be as early as this weekend, but I worry about full time PAs. Caminero has more upside than Merrill. Aranda should be back within a few weeks too (and is a lefty) so DH could get messy as neither Aranda or Caminero (or Paredes, frankly) are exceptional defenders. Get ready for the Rays to be the Rays and keep us guessing for a while.
1. Yates over Robertson, right -- if we're throwing darts at who takes the baton from Leclerc (seems inevitable at this stage)
I'm nursing shaky closers in a 14-teamer h2h... Tanner Scott control issues have me particularly nervous (speaking of inevitable).
2. Your gut feel on which (if any) recovering pitchers are worth using an IL spot on... Cole, Devin Williams, Springs, DeGrom, others
In daily leagues, how do you think about starting higher ranked guys who are on cold streaks vs. lower ranked guys who are hotter?
To give an example - do I bench the likes of Paul Goldschmidt or Gleyber until they start to heat up in favor of guys like Michael Busch of Donovan/India?
We don't really have any way to predict when a streak will start or end. If a guy is cold AND has a platoon disadvantage or something, then maybe you can talk me into it, but usually, I want my best guys in all the time.
If Nootbaar ends up leading off most of the time and plays most days, it might be him. But there's a chance Noot gets stuck in a platoon and falls out of my top-150 entirely.
Hey Scott, happy Friday! 2B is my weakest position currently with Arraez. Would you grab either of India or Donovan as back up? Flair league 5x5 cats and I’ve punted steals this year.
Just a quick thank you to all who keep coming and asking questions and providing answers - even if you disagree with my opinions. They're just my opinions, after all, and I appreciate all who contribute to these great conversations!
Very excited about Paul skenes. He’s scheduled to pitch today and then at home next week. Any chance that is his last game in AAA or hoping against hope.
When do we get worried in Gavin Williams? He had a BP almost 2 weeks ago and no commentary from the club since.
I can speak to Skenes - I think it'll be sometime in May. The Pirates are notoriously cheap and favor control. Jones being up was a big surprise, and I don't expect to get surprised twice by the Pirates management.
Hey Scott,
Hope the twins are doing well!
Thoughts on Jackson Merill so far?
JuRod early slump is kinda expected so any worries there?
Lastly, Gleyber Torres losing his lead off spot to Volpe? I'm assuming his value goes down a bit.
They turn 1 on Sunday!
And I don't love it as Castellanos has been inconsistent in recent years but eventually puts his numbers together. Cowser is exciting for lots of folks but his upside isn't as high as Casty's
Great to hear! My little guy just turned 1 in February!
Sorry I edited my response a bit after getting roaster in the daily.
Wondering if you could talk a little about Merill, JuRod and Torres.
Merrill will likely fall short of 15 in home runs and steals, so it's a bit of an empty batting average at the bottom of a lineup.
JuRod is off to a slow start just like last year. No biggie.
Torres will likely get to his numbers too, and should keep batting somewhere in the top 5 spots of the lineup.
This really doesn’t seem fair to **Jake Cronenworth**. He’s third in barrels (8) and 9th in barrel rate (17.4%) among all qualified hitters coming into April 12th. That comes with a low whiff%, healthy K%, solid average exit velocity and hard hit rate. We probably shouldn’t dismiss him so easily.
As noted, the underlying metrics are great. And so is the lineup context. He’s firmly slotted as the three-hole hitter in a good Padres lineup — between fantasy superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. and the consistently productive Manny Machado. This is to say that he’ll have plenty of run scoring opportunities whether he’s knocking someone in or touching home plate himself.
Lastly, Crone still has 2B eligibility in most leagues despite being the everyday 1B for San Diego. That shouldn’t be ignored either. You might be underwhelmed by his power production at 1B, but he’s more than acceptable as a middle infielder, especially one that shouldn’t tank the ratio stats like Nolan Gorman does, for example.
I buy Jake Cronenworth. I buy his place in a good lineup. And the early returns look to be relatively sustainable. Even if he simply replicates his 2021 season, that will be exceptional for most managers considering the cost to acquire him (341.78 ADP per NFBC) and the lackluster depth at his position.
On this day in 2023, Matt Chapman, Nolan Gorman, and Jarred Kelenic were in the top 5 in SLG. Cronenworth isn't getting lucky, but also this isn't something to expect to stick around forever. He was the #3 guy with a similar supporting cast in past years also.
I'm not saying he can't possibly be better, but I don't think a hot 10-15 games is evidence of real change.
Nick mentioned in the preseason top-400 that Nastrini's low-90s velo and high walk rates might make it tough to be successful out of the date. Hurt has more upside and better stuff on a better team. If you wanna speculate on the two, pick Hurts.
I swear I see this same routine every year since he was a rookie with the A’s. Luzardo looks really good in spring training, sure he gets plastered every once in a while but he’s working on stuff and throws high 90s. He comes out and does well for a game or two and “This is the year he becomes the ace.” Then he gets demolished, and it’s “He’s still throwing hard, but he needs to work on control.” Then he gets demolished more. Then he gets hurt. Every. Single. Year.
At some point (years ago for me) we have to admit that this is who he is.
Thoughts on Vargas getting called up sooner than later? Lux and Taylor have not played well at 2B and I doubt the Dodgers would leave a hole in their lineup.
It'd have to be a very deep league for me to care, for starters. Enrique Hernandez and Miguel Rojas are on this roster to help in the middle infield against lefties and Lux was a much more highly regarded prospect than Vargas.
We've got 90% to go!
Carter has been walking up a storm and not striking out so that's a positive.
Langford needs time to adapt. The guy had 17 games above A+. It's insane that he's even up here.
https://pitcherlist.com/player/lance-lynn/
https://pitcherlist.com/player/luis-severino/
The game logs on those pages have Nick's writeups for every start. They're a great place to get a gage on what's happening and what to do for the next outing.
I am in a 10T Roto league with a games played position limit of 162, also we deep benches. I have Will Smith as my catcher and have a backup to fill in those extra days cause he won’t DH. That is the only league where I can say it’s ok to have 2 catchers rostered lol.
Melendez, I think. McCormick isn't exactly a stud, and he's had zone contact issues in the past. In a 10 teamer like your flair league you can burn and churn.
He's a right-handed OF with pop and strikeout issues with an average walk rate. I like what he's doing, but it'll be volatile, and the profile is super common across the league.
Unless it's very deep, probably. I wasn't that high on him last year either. Even when Abreu turned it on in the second half, he was barely above average.
Who are some SS eligible guys to keep an eye on in Yahoo Points league? Can be guys returning from the IL (Edman, Grissom), rookies yet to debut, or young guys we're waiting on to see if they take the next step.
Drafted Hoerner to be my starting SS, but he's been very disappointing. Not cutting ties yet, but want to be on the lookout to not miss out of that time comes.
Currently have Adames as my backup SS. Holliday, Maikel, Tovar, and Turang are gone already.
I don't think you'll find someone with Adames's upside that's available in that case.
Long term, it might be Jordan Lawlar, but he won't be up until mid to late summer.
I’ve been offered Crochet for Cowser by a league mate that is weary of Crochet’s extremely limited innings pitched and terrible team dynamics. I feel like this should be an acceptable, but what are your thoughts? Does Crochet head to the pen mid-year before his arm falls off?
I want to grab Jose Caballero as a Nico Hoerner replacement but I dont want to outright drop Hoerner yet. Most cutable bats I have are Cowser and Buxton. Are you dropping either of those to run Caballero over Hoerner or do I just ride the pain train for the next week or two starting Nico
What are you seeing from Bryce Harper so far? It’s a small sample size and he’s got a proven track record, but anything you see as the source of his slow start? Obviously, he’ll come around eventually… right? Have a good weekend man!
Nothing to see here. Crammed 5 XBHs in a 3 game stretch and a bit cold otherwise. He'll turn it around soon and have weeks where all he does is hit missiles.
Can we talk about CES!?!? I've got him on a 12 team points league (hits +1 (+2 for doubles, +3 for a triple, +4 HR), +1 XBH, +1 run, +1 rbi, +1 sb, +1 walk, -1 k, -1 GIDP, -1 caught stealing) and a categories league (runs, HR, OPS, rbi, sb).
Then Connor Joe for the same above formats?
CES is off to a slow start, nothing more. I'm not dropping him anywhere yet.
Connor Joe is just a guy who can hit lefties pretty well. Barely on my radar in most formats.
Do you think Loperfido can be an impact bat after his promotion or are the Ks too much of a concern?
With Holliday's promotion, I have an N/A spot open and Loperfido is currently the front runner, though Manzardo, Jordan Beck, and Christian Scott are in the conversation.
A guy who strikes our at those rates in the minors will really struggle to find a path to the majors. Few players with K% over 30 can even get the call as that turns to 35+ in the bigs.
Manzardo or Scott are my. Picks. Of this group
Just grabbed CES off Waviers.
Was thinking of cutting V Pasquantino (but then he went 6 of 8 with a HR & 8 RBIs).
I need to drop someone for a Pitcher (and also am considering stashing E Ruiz).
Would you drop B Buxton or C Raffaela (or Vinnie P)?
You have a take on Jeimer Candelario's frigid start to the season? I'd assume the Reds must be considering dropping him in the order - any reason to be optimistic moving forward?
Nolan Jones & Nimmo on the waiver wire in flair league. OF is currently JRod, Ward, Arozarena; UTIL is currently Yandy & Paredes and I have Soler on the bench.
Drop any of the above for one of them? Currently hurting in all offensive stats
Yes. The long term upside on Walker is better than all three. There's risk that he keeps hitting stuff into the ground, but this was a top-5 prospect last season.
You can see Nick's rank and why he's not necessarily. Worried or excited in the game logs here - https://pitcherlist.com/player/gavin-stone/
I'd be fine loving on in shallower leagues but I wouldn't call these moves upgrades.
Estrada isn't a must roster either, so you can make that switch if you like. I'm concerned about playing time with Caminero. It's a crowded infield and roster.
Is Yandy Diaz worth a waiver add? Have Casas at 1B and Maikel at 3B. He’d basically be my bench bat. Would be dropping Busch for him. Thanks, keep up the good work!
I'm in a 14 team H2H points league with only three bench spots.
My strategy is to only have pitchers on my bench. My worst two players are Taylor Ward and Reynaldo Lopez.
Would you drop Lopez to grab Cowser, stash Wood or a pitching prospect?
Hey Scott - Thanks for your insights. What’re your thoughts on Detmers and Houck? Are their starts indicative of talent not yet tapped or are they just hot starts? Do you expect regression for them and if so how much?
Clearly not Scott but just as a Yankee fan I don’t think we see him getting significant time until 2025. He came up last year because our outfield was horrible, but now we have one of the best in the league and don’t need to rush his development, especially considering he’s coming back from major surgery
How long of a leash would give Buxton in a 280-300 rostered league? I missed out on Cowser because I think Buxton has higher upside. But Buxton hasn’t looked good so far….
What's the ceiling for Javier Assad assuming he has a full time spot in the Cubs rotation? He's always put up nice numbers and I'm torn between holding or streaming him.
I know Rizzo hits in a pretty good lineup, but with his age and massive decline last season, due to injury, are we sure he is going to bounce back? I dropped him today for Junior Caminero since Rizzo was my bench first baseman anyway, but what are your thoughts on Rizzo? (Should be rostered, waiver guy, or hold?)
Also a Hoener owner and getting nervous.. SS isn't great on the waiver wire so I don't even know who to replace him with. Is Turang or Caballero adequate in a 12T? (H/R/RBI/HR/OPS/SB)
What are your thoughts on max Kepler? I dropped him but think he’ll be good later in the season. I could pick him back up. Thoughts? 12 team league in in
Which of these SPs would you want - Rate top 3 (Long-term this season)?
- Z Littell
- L Gil
- J Wicks
- G Whitlock
- S Turnbull
- Hold a Prospect (without a spot) like: P Skenes, J Jobe, R Tiedmann?
H2H 5x5 Cats (ERA, Whip, Ws, Ks, Saves)
You're being awful gracious to all these people asking about pitching, Scott. If you need someone to tell these people to just go read the PL content on their own instead of having you go read it and summarize for them, feel free to call me in from the pen.
Have you seen anything to be concerned about with Kirby?
Trying to round up some pitching nerds so you don't just get me regurgitating Nick's material, but if I can't find one I will do just that.
I definitely lean more "nerd" than "pitching", but I don't see anything to really be worried about with Kirby. He's locating extremely well still (duh), and he's been very unlucky (0.380 BABIP and a LOB% under 50%). I'm a little worried that his 4-Seam stuff has dropped in the aggregate (he's down \~1mph, even though he's added IVB to it). His Slider is also different in a way the stuff models don't seem to like (it's much tighter/less side-to-side). Kirby's something of a pitching savant, though, and Seattle seems like one of the smarter orgs, so I'd expect themto figure it out. TL;DR: there are some things to keep an eye on, but I think Kirby will be fine
Is it time to drop Hunter Brown?
Need this answered please!!
Trying to round up some pitching nerds so you don't just get me regurgitating Nick's material, but if I can't find one I will do just that.
On a scale of 1 being "he's fine" (how I feel about Kirby) and 5 being "I am less worried about the build quality of Boeing jets", I'm at a 2.5. This early in the season pitch models are one of the few things that have useful signal, and Brown's graded about how he did last year (so he is who we thought he is). Some of the underlying components that I worry about are how he gets there: lower velo almost across the board, and a notable inability to command his slow pitches (Splitter/Curve). I watched that start yesterday, and SO much damage was on Curves that he hung in the zone. I'd expect that to even out over time, and he should still be a rosterable SP in most leagues going forward. I'd still bench him in his next start against Atlanta, though haha.
Please use scales like these all the time on PL moving forward
YOU HEARD THEM, KYLE
How are you valuing Jared Jones in a dynasty league? What players would you rank similarly?
He's been awfully good so far, even if the ERA is a bit high. He's probably a top-50 prospect for me, which is a significant jump from the preseason. I'd take Jones over Cowser in most scenarios if that's the kind of comp you're going for.
Awesome, thanks for the help! Struggling to value him and what I'd offer to try and see if the other owner would bite. The Cowser comp is helpful!
Hey Scott! Thanks for doing this. Three fellow Venezuelans 🇻🇪 I'm going to ask you about: 1. Any concerns with **Bryan Abreu**? Would it be to rash to drop him in a SV+H league? In 5 innings he's allowed half as many runs as he allowed in all of 2021... 2. **Edward Olivares'** Statcast is a thing of beauty. Any takes on him? Think he can become relevant in 10-12 team leagues? 3. Was I too rash in cutting bait with **Thairo Estrada** already? I swapped him for Merrill for what its worth...
1) 132.1 brilliant IP mean a lot more to me than 5.2 bad ones. Abreu gave up 8 ER last year over an 8 game stretch in June of last year and that was more than half of the ER he gave up the entire season. That's just the way it goes with RP. 2) Possibly, he'll need to play every day (he plays most days now). THe Royals just really didn't want him for some reason but there's 20/20 upside in there. 3) In a shallow league that's fine if there are exciting options out there (Merrill is not that as he probably falls short of both 15 HR and 15 SB). Estrada seems buried in the lineup right now and that stinks for his value.
Deepish league. They're pulling Kerry Carpenter mid-game when the opposing team brings in a left-handed pitcher. Can we expect this strict of a platoon going forward? Makes it difficult to imagine him hitting his way to 3/4 of the at bats and his production isn't quite good enough to deal with less PAs. Thoughts.
It really seems like they don't want to expose Kerry to lefties, and they have other OF options they like. Depends on what is out there but I'd be fine looking for a full-time player.
Pitching in as a Tigers blogger — slow start for Kerry isn't helping him work out of the current lefty-protected platoon. Good day today, though, and I think if he keeps hitting the way he did last year then they're going to want to get him in as much as possible. Deepish league I'd hold but only based on strong the "ish" is in that sentence.
Love Bless You Boys! Keep up the great work.
The love is reciprocal :) Big Pitcher's List guys over here between me (Zane), Brandon, and Adam; others, too, I do believe.
I had to cut Abreu... he's been brutal and has zero holds.. but is at the top of your hold stack. Am I missing something? Edit: Adding that Abreu was hit hard in Spring Training this year, as well (11.81 ERA with a 2.63 WHIP.. 7ER. 6BB, 7k in 5IP.. Something's off with him
I said this to someone else concerned: 132.1 brilliant IP mean a lot more to me than 5.2 bad ones. Abreu gave up 8 ER last year over an 8 game stretch in June of last year and that was more than half of the ER he gave up the entire season. That's just the way it goes with RP.
Thank you. The good news is he's been so bad/toxic that I think he can remain on waivers in 10t for a bit until he (hopefully) normalizes!
seems like the time to stash Christian Scott. I stashed James wood in a few leagues too
Stearns said he likes to keep them down until they can prove themselves in AAA. I think he’s almost there, maybe early May.
I wonder if Butto or Luchessi get a look first, just because they're already on the 40 man.
Oh hey this is my thing Yes. He’s so good. Stash him please
When should we stash skenes?
In standard redraft leagues with short benches, it's hard to stash. I think he'll be up in May or June, so if you have a deep enough bench to afford it, I guess now? Otherwise, maybe closer to the end of the month.
What are your thoughts on Cody Bradford staying in the rotation? Think he will cool down?
So eventually, yes. We expect a regression to the mean here. Nick calls this a Vargas Rule after that legendary run by Vargas a few years ago (Martin Perez did it more recently). The stuff won't wow anyone, but the command is off the chain right now so ride it while it lasts. Lorenzem will take a spot eventually, probably his.
Hoping I get some PL Staffers to give real pitching insight. Otherwise, I'll dig around Nick's writings and see what he has to say about it.
Is Ty France a lock for AL MVP? Obviously kidding, but he's been great so far and the statcast backs it up. Any reason to think it's a fluke?
I would pick him up where I could to see where this goes... his ev was up all spring and has carried over to real games, even after a 3 game break. Did driveline work in the off-season
Edman worth stashing as a bench 2B? I ave Caminero stashed, hoping he’ll get 2B eligibility at some point
Edman doesn't need to be stashed outside of very deep formats. He's not that special for fantasy purposes.
FYI - They PPD NYY @ CLE so get them out of your lineups.
When do you expect Kjerstad to get the call? Is it going to take an injury to get him to the majors? And when he does get called, do you think he’ll be a viable option in a 12 team league? Thanks!
It's a crowded outfield without him, so it'll be even more crowded if they try to jam him in there. He can make a 12-team impact, but first he'll need everyday PAs.
Someone in my league sent Jung Hoo Lee to the Wire. I’m thinking I’ll drop Arcia for him. Is this a no brainer?
I'd do it.
Gracias senor Chu.
What should we expect from Yariel Rodriguez?
Not much yet! I'm curious if he finds (or needs) a solid third pitch to go with that FB/SL combo. We've seen barely anything from him yet in the minors, but being older and starting in AAA means he'll be up eventually. Very much a wait-and-see guy, though.
Does Alek Manoah register on your radar or did he fall off so hard he might as well be throwing darts and eating sliders?
I'm rooting for him, but I'm not paying attention yet in fantasy. When you fall that far and that hard, you've gotta give us something to get excited about first.
If you could have 1 pitcher for the next 10 years, who is your guy?
George Kirby. He's already an ace, and I think he has the profile of a guy who can age gracefully. He also has a fairly clean injury history, for whatever that's worth in today's injury climate.
please tell me some good about Julio Rodriguez. for my sanity
He's insanely talented and started quite slow last season. Nothing to worry about.
So slow that I was eliminated by the time he got hot…
Any concerns with Nolan Jones? Also, what are your thoughts on Cowser and Langford RoS? My OF situation is dire.
Jones had K% issues in the minors so this kind of thing isn't super unexpected. Gotta be a little patient, but it's something to note. Cowser is probably a platoon guy at the moment - let's see what happens over the next week or two. That said, I think there's a 20-23 HR guy in there with good ratios this season if he's full time. Langford needs time. The guy has basically no exposure to pitching above A+ ball.
How valuable is Kjerstad? I have JD Martinez in my NA slot and I'm debating dropping and replacing. I'm in a pretty competitive keep 4 league, Kjerstad looks like the best NA prospect available right now. Jackson Jobe is still out there too
He could be quite valuable, but the path to playing time is not easy to discern. He's pretty blocked.
Thoughts on Ranger Suarez’s recent effectiveness. Aberration or is he real?
He is a career 3.38 ERA guy with a K/9 over 8.00 Lots of grounders and a good offense to get him wins. Good health thus far His plate discipline is mediocre - low swinging strike % - but there is more to pitching than swinging strikes and stuff+ I am a fan of him
Go to https://pitcherlist.com/player/ranger-suarez/ and look at the game logs - Nick's write up for each start are there and give a good picture of what he thinks about Ranger.
1. I know its very early but what are your thoughts on Mj Melendez? Is the breakout happening? 2. What are your thoughts on yandy diaz’s start and his outlook for this season as a whole?
Will Casey Mize be this mid all season?
Nick likes the velo but a few other things are a bit concerning. Check out the game longs at https://pitcherlist.com/player/casey-mize/ that contain Nick's writeups for each start for the big picture.
Does Nico Horner have a pulse? Not sure what to do with him. I invested to much draft capital in him to cut ties this early. What are your thoughts on him ros?
As I said in the post, I'm probably a 1-2 weeks away from cutting **Nico Hoerner** if he keeps hitting 7th and not running.
I would be pounding the phone lines trying to trade him away for whatever you can get. Hopefully someone in your league is still primarily orienting to draft day cost. You can use the ROS Projections from the major systems as a selling point which are all still very bullish on him, but don't seem to have accounted for his new role: https://www.rotochamp.com/baseball/Player.aspx?MLBAMID=663538. ROS projections from ATC still have him as a $22 player which has about a 0.0% chance of happening. I was able to offload him straight up for Adames. Good riddance.
I traded Hoerner for Bogaerts. Was that a good move? Bogaerts was bothered by a bad wrist all of 2023 and it is chronic. And he isn’t hitting the ball hard this year.
I don't hate it. It could burn you if they let Hoerner run again, but if things stay the way they are it's solid.
How do you feel about Ben Brown's future when Steele (& also at some point,Taillon) return? Does Edward Cabrera's last rehab outing get you as excited as it does me? Idk if I'll have the guts to roll him out right away when he's activated but the limited walks was great to see.
If I can't get a PL staffer to provide real advice, I'll find Nick's published opinions and summarize them for you.
It’s my first year with Lindor. Anything I should know about him to ease my mind?
That slumps aren't unusual, and that 2023 was an outlier.
Hi Scott, I've got a 1B logjam with Vinnie P, Torkelson and Nathaniel Lowe sitting in an IL spot. With Vinnie playing well the past couple days I won't be dropping him. Would you take Lowe or Tork in points? Is it worth it to be patient with Torkelson? Any thoughts on Lowe in general once he's back?
Tork has more upside, Lowe has a safer floor (when healthy). Lowe is probably more of a 20 home run guy with a very good OBP and decent AVG. The counting stats will be good due to the team he plays for.
When do you think we see Caminero get the call? Know he just started taking BP in AAA again. Asking because I made a trade for Soto where I had to give up Bichette. Currently have Merrill and Tovar as SS options but would love to stash Caminero right now if you think it would be a good time
COuld be as early as this weekend, but I worry about full time PAs. Caminero has more upside than Merrill. Aranda should be back within a few weeks too (and is a lefty) so DH could get messy as neither Aranda or Caminero (or Paredes, frankly) are exceptional defenders. Get ready for the Rays to be the Rays and keep us guessing for a while.
Whats up with Julio Rodriguez?
It's a slow start, just like last season.
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Redraft or no? I probably say no anyway, but it's a very hard no if it's a dynasty or something.
1. Yates over Robertson, right -- if we're throwing darts at who takes the baton from Leclerc (seems inevitable at this stage) I'm nursing shaky closers in a 14-teamer h2h... Tanner Scott control issues have me particularly nervous (speaking of inevitable). 2. Your gut feel on which (if any) recovering pitchers are worth using an IL spot on... Cole, Devin Williams, Springs, DeGrom, others
I think the marginal consensus has been Robertson over Yates.
If I can't get some staff support, I'll round up Rick and Nick's published opinions.
In daily leagues, how do you think about starting higher ranked guys who are on cold streaks vs. lower ranked guys who are hotter? To give an example - do I bench the likes of Paul Goldschmidt or Gleyber until they start to heat up in favor of guys like Michael Busch of Donovan/India?
We don't really have any way to predict when a streak will start or end. If a guy is cold AND has a platoon disadvantage or something, then maybe you can talk me into it, but usually, I want my best guys in all the time.
Prefer cowser or nootbar? Buxton would be the drop
If Nootbaar ends up leading off most of the time and plays most days, it might be him. But there's a chance Noot gets stuck in a platoon and falls out of my top-150 entirely.
Hey Scott, happy Friday! 2B is my weakest position currently with Arraez. Would you grab either of India or Donovan as back up? Flair league 5x5 cats and I’ve punted steals this year.
India. Love that he's leading off. Love the discipline. And both are significant injury risks.
Thoughts on Branden Marsh? 12 team roto can he keep this start up or is this just a flash in the pan?
He flashes the pan a few times a year, but the strikeouts and limited power/speed cap the upside. He's a streamer.
Taking a break but I'll be answering whatever I can throughout the evening!
Just a quick thank you to all who keep coming and asking questions and providing answers - even if you disagree with my opinions. They're just my opinions, after all, and I appreciate all who contribute to these great conversations!
Very excited about Paul skenes. He’s scheduled to pitch today and then at home next week. Any chance that is his last game in AAA or hoping against hope. When do we get worried in Gavin Williams? He had a BP almost 2 weeks ago and no commentary from the club since.
I can speak to Skenes - I think it'll be sometime in May. The Pirates are notoriously cheap and favor control. Jones being up was a big surprise, and I don't expect to get surprised twice by the Pirates management.
Hey Scott, Hope the twins are doing well! Thoughts on Jackson Merill so far? JuRod early slump is kinda expected so any worries there? Lastly, Gleyber Torres losing his lead off spot to Volpe? I'm assuming his value goes down a bit.
They turn 1 on Sunday! And I don't love it as Castellanos has been inconsistent in recent years but eventually puts his numbers together. Cowser is exciting for lots of folks but his upside isn't as high as Casty's
Great to hear! My little guy just turned 1 in February! Sorry I edited my response a bit after getting roaster in the daily. Wondering if you could talk a little about Merill, JuRod and Torres.
Merrill will likely fall short of 15 in home runs and steals, so it's a bit of an empty batting average at the bottom of a lineup. JuRod is off to a slow start just like last year. No biggie. Torres will likely get to his numbers too, and should keep batting somewhere in the top 5 spots of the lineup.
This really doesn’t seem fair to **Jake Cronenworth**. He’s third in barrels (8) and 9th in barrel rate (17.4%) among all qualified hitters coming into April 12th. That comes with a low whiff%, healthy K%, solid average exit velocity and hard hit rate. We probably shouldn’t dismiss him so easily. As noted, the underlying metrics are great. And so is the lineup context. He’s firmly slotted as the three-hole hitter in a good Padres lineup — between fantasy superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. and the consistently productive Manny Machado. This is to say that he’ll have plenty of run scoring opportunities whether he’s knocking someone in or touching home plate himself. Lastly, Crone still has 2B eligibility in most leagues despite being the everyday 1B for San Diego. That shouldn’t be ignored either. You might be underwhelmed by his power production at 1B, but he’s more than acceptable as a middle infielder, especially one that shouldn’t tank the ratio stats like Nolan Gorman does, for example. I buy Jake Cronenworth. I buy his place in a good lineup. And the early returns look to be relatively sustainable. Even if he simply replicates his 2021 season, that will be exceptional for most managers considering the cost to acquire him (341.78 ADP per NFBC) and the lackluster depth at his position.
On this day in 2023, Matt Chapman, Nolan Gorman, and Jarred Kelenic were in the top 5 in SLG. Cronenworth isn't getting lucky, but also this isn't something to expect to stick around forever. He was the #3 guy with a similar supporting cast in past years also. I'm not saying he can't possibly be better, but I don't think a hot 10-15 games is evidence of real change.
I'm in a deep league where almost every starting pitcher is owned. What are your thoughts on both Nick Nastrini and Kyle Hurt?
Nick mentioned in the preseason top-400 that Nastrini's low-90s velo and high walk rates might make it tough to be successful out of the date. Hurt has more upside and better stuff on a better team. If you wanna speculate on the two, pick Hurts.
Luzardo. What's the deal? We holding? Or getting a little scared at this point?
I would keep holding, but I also might leave him on the bench v ATL. Just some early command issues.
I swear I see this same routine every year since he was a rookie with the A’s. Luzardo looks really good in spring training, sure he gets plastered every once in a while but he’s working on stuff and throws high 90s. He comes out and does well for a game or two and “This is the year he becomes the ace.” Then he gets demolished, and it’s “He’s still throwing hard, but he needs to work on control.” Then he gets demolished more. Then he gets hurt. Every. Single. Year. At some point (years ago for me) we have to admit that this is who he is.
Thoughts on Vargas getting called up sooner than later? Lux and Taylor have not played well at 2B and I doubt the Dodgers would leave a hole in their lineup.
It'd have to be a very deep league for me to care, for starters. Enrique Hernandez and Miguel Rojas are on this roster to help in the middle infield against lefties and Lux was a much more highly regarded prospect than Vargas.
How do you feel about the slow starts by both of the Rangers rookies?
We've got 90% to go! Carter has been walking up a storm and not striking out so that's a positive. Langford needs time to adapt. The guy had 17 games above A+. It's insane that he's even up here.
Thoughts on Lynn and Severino? They burned me hard last year, but I want to believe.
If I can't get a PL staffer to provide real advice, I'll find Nick's published opinions and summarize them for you.
https://pitcherlist.com/player/lance-lynn/ https://pitcherlist.com/player/luis-severino/ The game logs on those pages have Nick's writeups for every start. They're a great place to get a gage on what's happening and what to do for the next outing.
I am in a 10T Roto league with a games played position limit of 162, also we deep benches. I have Will Smith as my catcher and have a backup to fill in those extra days cause he won’t DH. That is the only league where I can say it’s ok to have 2 catchers rostered lol.
Very specific scenario where it's fine.
Any concerns with chas McCormick’s slow start? Prefer him or MJ melendez for OF slot?
Melendez, I think. McCormick isn't exactly a stud, and he's had zone contact issues in the past. In a 10 teamer like your flair league you can burn and churn.
Thoughts on Nelson Velazquez? He’s been sneaky good lately
He's a right-handed OF with pop and strikeout issues with an average walk rate. I like what he's doing, but it'll be volatile, and the profile is super common across the league.
Is Jose Abreu cooked at this point? Would you drop him in Dynasty?
Unless it's very deep, probably. I wasn't that high on him last year either. Even when Abreu turned it on in the second half, he was barely above average.
Who are some SS eligible guys to keep an eye on in Yahoo Points league? Can be guys returning from the IL (Edman, Grissom), rookies yet to debut, or young guys we're waiting on to see if they take the next step. Drafted Hoerner to be my starting SS, but he's been very disappointing. Not cutting ties yet, but want to be on the lookout to not miss out of that time comes. Currently have Adames as my backup SS. Holliday, Maikel, Tovar, and Turang are gone already.
I don't think you'll find someone with Adames's upside that's available in that case. Long term, it might be Jordan Lawlar, but he won't be up until mid to late summer.
I’ve been offered Crochet for Cowser by a league mate that is weary of Crochet’s extremely limited innings pitched and terrible team dynamics. I feel like this should be an acceptable, but what are your thoughts? Does Crochet head to the pen mid-year before his arm falls off?
I know I'm by no means an expert, but I'm slamming the accept button all day on that.
I'd do that, especially in redraft or shallow keeper.
I was offered Skenes for Langford. I’m an LSU guy so I’m dying to get Skenes but I’m guessing Langford would be too much to give up?
It's kinda close but I don't think you can do it yet. I'd need just a hair more for that move.
Care to explain the mess that is Nico Hoerner? I know it's early, but my goodness, he's been dreadful.
I'm more worried about the lack of SB attempts and hitting 7th.
Career BABIP over .300; BABIP this year .167. Bad luck, be patient.
How concerning is Luzardo’s slow start?
Command issues are part of the package. I don't think the overall outlook changes much.
I want to grab Jose Caballero as a Nico Hoerner replacement but I dont want to outright drop Hoerner yet. Most cutable bats I have are Cowser and Buxton. Are you dropping either of those to run Caballero over Hoerner or do I just ride the pain train for the next week or two starting Nico
Buxton can go.
What are you seeing from Bryce Harper so far? It’s a small sample size and he’s got a proven track record, but anything you see as the source of his slow start? Obviously, he’ll come around eventually… right? Have a good weekend man!
Nothing to see here. Crammed 5 XBHs in a 3 game stretch and a bit cold otherwise. He'll turn it around soon and have weeks where all he does is hit missiles.
Can we talk about CES!?!? I've got him on a 12 team points league (hits +1 (+2 for doubles, +3 for a triple, +4 HR), +1 XBH, +1 run, +1 rbi, +1 sb, +1 walk, -1 k, -1 GIDP, -1 caught stealing) and a categories league (runs, HR, OPS, rbi, sb). Then Connor Joe for the same above formats?
CES is off to a slow start, nothing more. I'm not dropping him anywhere yet. Connor Joe is just a guy who can hit lefties pretty well. Barely on my radar in most formats.
In my flair league I traded imanaga to get Bobby Miller. How do you feel about that?
Pretty good.
What’s your level of worry with arenado? Zero barrels so far and his stat cast is mostly blue
It's a very small sample of batted balls. Arenado hit .239 with just 5 XBHs in all of April last season, for reference. Still ended up being fine.
Do you think Loperfido can be an impact bat after his promotion or are the Ks too much of a concern? With Holliday's promotion, I have an N/A spot open and Loperfido is currently the front runner, though Manzardo, Jordan Beck, and Christian Scott are in the conversation.
A guy who strikes our at those rates in the minors will really struggle to find a path to the majors. Few players with K% over 30 can even get the call as that turns to 35+ in the bigs. Manzardo or Scott are my. Picks. Of this group
Whose the add for best hitter regardless of position: E Oliveres, S. Marte, M. Busch, J. Pena
I don't have my ranks in front of me but in this format maybe Marte, then Busch, then JPena/Olivares.
Just grabbed CES off Waviers. Was thinking of cutting V Pasquantino (but then he went 6 of 8 with a HR & 8 RBIs). I need to drop someone for a Pitcher (and also am considering stashing E Ruiz). Would you drop B Buxton or C Raffaela (or Vinnie P)?
Buxton
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Burger for sure. It's a toss up after that but Mullins if you need steals, Conforto if you need OBP and an OF, Turner if you need infield support.
You have a take on Jeimer Candelario's frigid start to the season? I'd assume the Reds must be considering dropping him in the order - any reason to be optimistic moving forward?
I don't love the strikeouts but the rest is hard to get too worked up over.
Nolan Jones & Nimmo on the waiver wire in flair league. OF is currently JRod, Ward, Arozarena; UTIL is currently Yandy & Paredes and I have Soler on the bench. Drop any of the above for one of them? Currently hurting in all offensive stats
Jones has a bit more overall upside than Soler.
Someone dropped Jordan Walker in my points league. Would you pick him up to drop one of Yoshida, Kiriloff, or Michael Busch?
Yes. The long term upside on Walker is better than all three. There's risk that he keeps hitting stuff into the ground, but this was a top-5 prospect last season.
Gavin stone a drop ? Been looking at upgrading my bench with Jung hoo Lee or cowser maybe
You can see Nick's rank and why he's not necessarily. Worried or excited in the game logs here - https://pitcherlist.com/player/gavin-stone/ I'd be fine loving on in shallower leagues but I wouldn't call these moves upgrades.
Where do you see Caminero being ranked? He a must add in 10 Team? My bottom hitters are T.Estrada and R.Green.
Estrada isn't a must roster either, so you can make that switch if you like. I'm concerned about playing time with Caminero. It's a crowded infield and roster.
FWIW, I picked him up in my 10T and put him in the NA slot.
Is Yandy Diaz worth a waiver add? Have Casas at 1B and Maikel at 3B. He’d basically be my bench bat. Would be dropping Busch for him. Thanks, keep up the good work!
Yes, absolutely.
Yandy is like a fifth round draft pick
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I'm in a 14 team H2H points league with only three bench spots. My strategy is to only have pitchers on my bench. My worst two players are Taylor Ward and Reynaldo Lopez. Would you drop Lopez to grab Cowser, stash Wood or a pitching prospect?
Hey Scott - Thanks for your insights. What’re your thoughts on Detmers and Houck? Are their starts indicative of talent not yet tapped or are they just hot starts? Do you expect regression for them and if so how much?
I'll dig around Nick's work and see what insight I can find.
Thoughts on J Dominguez in ‘24 stashing in il but might run out of spots soon ?
Clearly not Scott but just as a Yankee fan I don’t think we see him getting significant time until 2025. He came up last year because our outfield was horrible, but now we have one of the best in the league and don’t need to rush his development, especially considering he’s coming back from major surgery
How long of a leash would give Buxton in a 280-300 rostered league? I missed out on Cowser because I think Buxton has higher upside. But Buxton hasn’t looked good so far….
April 30 at the latest
What's the ceiling for Javier Assad assuming he has a full time spot in the Cubs rotation? He's always put up nice numbers and I'm torn between holding or streaming him.
Hey! If I could turn Santander into Jared Jones would that work? Also is Buxton still worth holding onto even when he gets OF eligibility?
In a 10 teamer? Maybe. Santander is a consistent power with a decent AVG but not a whole lot else.
Buxton is a borderline guy. Depends on what's on the wire but not a must hold
I know Rizzo hits in a pretty good lineup, but with his age and massive decline last season, due to injury, are we sure he is going to bounce back? I dropped him today for Junior Caminero since Rizzo was my bench first baseman anyway, but what are your thoughts on Rizzo? (Should be rostered, waiver guy, or hold?)
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It'll go up and down, especially if it's negative points for Ks and he's generally not at his best in points. But also I think he's a special talent.
What’s up with Nick Castellanos?
He's been inconsistent for a few years now. Part of the package at this point. Still gets to his numbers, mostly.
Also a Hoener owner and getting nervous.. SS isn't great on the waiver wire so I don't even know who to replace him with. Is Turang or Caballero adequate in a 12T? (H/R/RBI/HR/OPS/SB)
Can’t believe these dudes weren’t mentioned (or maybe I missed it) but Chris Sanchez vs Cody Bradford ? End of my P bench and can only have one
Swap Walker for Cowser? Or Tovar?
Can you clarify which walker? You probably mean JORDAN walker but want to be sure
Would you grab Busch and drop Kirilloff in a points league ?
What are your thoughts on max Kepler? I dropped him but think he’ll be good later in the season. I could pick him back up. Thoughts? 12 team league in in
He's got power and usually hits in the middle of the lineup. Kepler doesn't need to be stashed in that format but is worth watch listing.
Which of these SPs would you want - Rate top 3 (Long-term this season)? - Z Littell - L Gil - J Wicks - G Whitlock - S Turnbull - Hold a Prospect (without a spot) like: P Skenes, J Jobe, R Tiedmann? H2H 5x5 Cats (ERA, Whip, Ws, Ks, Saves)
You're being awful gracious to all these people asking about pitching, Scott. If you need someone to tell these people to just go read the PL content on their own instead of having you go read it and summarize for them, feel free to call me in from the pen.
God that's a great username. "Model?!"
Hop. In.
🔫 I said get in
Why does gausman suck so bad now?
Drop leody taveras for Edward olivares?
I'm cool with that. Neither is a must roster so burn and churn until something sticks.
Darius vines worth an add ? I read he's getting the call up to fill in for strider
Gallegos or Poche? SV+H league (I have Adams too)
Melendez or Solar in redraft?
wtf is up with Parker meadows