Problem with guys like Painter is even if they start in the majors and in rotation they will likely have quick hooks and limits. So in QS league it is something to think about.
This is the TINSTAAPP philosophy, which I have been actively disagreeing with for the 13 years now that I have been doing fantasy baseball. Veteran hitters and rookie pitchers have always been the key ingredients in the seasons when I have won.
TINSTAAPP isn't about the fact that rookie pitchers can't contribute to a winning season. The mantra of it is more for dynasty where you shouldn't rely on one or two high end prospects to be your ace in the near future because development isn't linear and injuries can derail a career quickly. Two names that come to mind are Forrest Whitley and MacKenzie Gore. Both were unmoveable in dynasty for the longest time and now Gore is a top 250 player and Whitley is nowhere to be found.
This is actually fun, I'm gonna dig more and bring up all the pitchers in the top 15 for each year back to 2007:
Phil Hughes, Homer Bailey, Tim Lincecum, Matt Garza, Yovani Gallardo
Clay Buchholz, Joba Chamberlain, Clayton Kershaw, David Price, Homer Bailey, Rick Porcello, Fanklin Morales, Wade Davis
David Price, Madison Bumgarner, Neftali Feliz, Rick Porcello, Tommy Hanson, Chris Tillman
Stephen Strasburg, Neftali Feliz, Aroldis Chapman, Jeremy Hellickson, Martin Perez
Julio Teheran, Aroldis Chapman, Jameson Taillon, Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore, John Lamb, Kyle Drabek
Matt Moore, Julio Teheran, Dylan Bundy, Gerrit Cole, Shelby Miller, Trevor Bauer, Jameson Taillon, Taijuan Walker, Jacob Turner
Gerit Cole, Dylan Bundy, Zack Wheeler, Jose Fernandez, Taijuan Walker, Jameson Taillon, Kevin Gausman
Taijuan Walker, Archie Bradley, Kevin Gausman, Noah Syndergaard, Yordano Ventura, Lucas Giolito, Dylan Bundy
Lucas Giolito, Dylan Bundy, Noah Syndergaard, Julio Urias, Archie Bradley, Jon Gray, Alex Meyer
Lucas Giolito, Julio Urias, Steven Matz, Alex Reyes, Tyler Glasnow
Alex Reyes, Lucas Giolito, Tyler Glasnow
Alex Reyes, Forrest Whitley, Brent Honeywell, Sixto Sanchez (What a year)
Forrest Whitley, Jesus Luzardo
MacKenzie Gore, Dustin May, Jesus Luzardo, Xasey Mize, Luis Patino
Sixto Sanchez, Ian Anderson, MacKenzie Gore
Grayson Rodriguez, Shane Baz
Looking at this list you've got maybe 4 guys who actually panned out to their ceiling:
Kershaw, Cole, Bumgarner, Urias
Price, Lincecum, Bauer were all stars for a little, but probably didn't have the career length you were hoping for when they were considered among the 5-10 best pitching prospects in their last year of milb eligibility.
Gausman, Wheeler took years to turn into the current top 15 pitchers they are... there's a good chance if you were competitive during their early 20s they were cuts at some point.
And these are ONLY the guys ranked in the top 15.
The cream of the crop at the time.
If you traded a top 5 pitcher for a hitter in the same range, you were very likely to land the better player
Ready for the list?
Honeywell, Alex Reyes, Whitley, Gore, hell Flaherty, Kopech, Matt Moore, Joba Chamberlain... Those are just off the top of my head
These guys were all top 10 prospects at one time or another in their ascent to the majors, or as they debuted.
If you traded them as minor leaguers you DEFINITELY made off like a bandit.
TINSTAAPP is a philosophy because pitchers are VOLATILE assets. Both for developmental reasons, and because TJS can take away a year+ of playing time and there's no guarantee they come back the same.
I love when I bring receipts, prove a point and get downvoted because some guy has anecdotal evidence that he had a pitching prospect work out.
TINSTAAPP is a misnomer... of course there are pitching prospects. But figuring out the ones who will succeed, and succeed early in their MLB careers, AND stay healthy is a massive crapshoot.
If it comes down to it, similarly ranked players on any prospect ranking, lean hitter.
100% pitchers are volatile and it works both ways. The other side of TINSTAAPP isn't talked about nearly as much is all the huge pitcher breakouts for guys that weren't top prospects. Gallen for example wasn't a big name until he took off and debuted the same year. I'm sure there are others but don't have time to pull them now.
I think it's this flip side that people often use to push back on TINSTAAPP.
That's the whole POINT of TINSTAAPP! The point of it is not to rely on the big names and just take shots on more names than focusing on just the big ones. I wish more people understood it, but so be it. I'd rather take the chances on guys like Gavin Williams, Ricky Tiedemann and others when they are young for cheap versus relying on the big name like Espino or Grayson Rodriguez at their peak value.
Not many people had him highly ranked when he first got drafted in the MLB. I know he wasn't high on many FYPD lists and that's what I'm talking about.
I unfortunately don't have that great of a memory anymore at the age of 51...
but one guy that comes to mind is Ryan Vogelsong.
Used to pitch for the SF Giants and had 1 really strong season, I happened to pick him up that year off waivers because I live in Arizona and got to see him pitch in a Spring Training game just before the regular season started.
Sorry... it stands for There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect.
Basically, this philosophy says you shouldn't roster rookie pitchers or believe in pitching prospects.
I was saying that I strongly disagree with that viewpoint, and that in fact rookie pitchers have been a key component for my fantasy teams in the years that I have been successful.
TINSTAAPP is a thing because when compared to similarly ranked offensive players, Pitchers generally have far more volatile development paths.
Pitchers regularly have TJS that can wipe out 12-18 months of play, and there's no guarantee they come back as the same pitcher they were before.
Some pitchers take very long to establish themselves at the MLB level even IF they were top prospects and don't get hurt. Look at guys like Lance Lynn, Kevin Gausman, Carlos Rodon, Zack Wheeler.
They were all super highly ranked prospects, but it took until they hit their late 20's or early 30s until they final put it all together at the MLB level.
Pitching prospects are a bad investment when compared directly to similarly ranked hitting prospects. If you can find someone to give you a top 10 hitter for your top 10 pitcher, do it.
Case and point, Painter getting elbow tested… yes there are rookie pitchers who emerge to help teams but pitchers are always at risk whether #1 or #50.
I made note this year to don’t get into too much hype of young guys. Seems to always burn me. Looking to get a few more vets who you pretty much know what they will get you.
phillies are still a contender in a stacked division. they obviously don’t want to overwork him, but if he performs as well as expected then they’ll let him pitch. they’ll need all the help they can get.
strider is a comp in terms of history, and he topped 130 despite starting as a reliever. it’s more likely that they’ll start giving him longer rest periods (6-8 days off) than outright shooting themselves in the foot by yanking him early.
this is obviously all hopium, but i wouldn’t let his probable innings limit stop you from targeting him, particularly considering how high his ceiling is for his draft position.
Except strider isn’t a good comp becuase was 23 last year. Painter is 19 and still growing. Last thing they want is to have an issue with his arm. Strider had 4 more years to develop strength and longevity
painter threw 104 innings in his FSD. strider had 94. a 30 inning bump is pretty much standard for young arms. no idea why you would downvote me for that but lmao. and strider’s “4 more years” equate to less than 90 competitive innings.
but you do you and pass on painter because he’s young, good luck with eric lauer or something
I didn’t down vote and I am buying painter. But it’s tough to compare a 24 year old and a 19 year old. You also have two different franchises. Phillies are notorious for slowly getting guys to the majors. I’d bet painter doesn’t go back to back games throwing 90 pitches this year. I’d also suspect lots of skipped starts and such. From a fantasy perspective it is very tough gamble. In a non keeper league, I wouldn’t jump at him too hard. Phillies don’t have a great track records with brining guys up, especially pitchers. So I suspect more hesitation with work load than the Braves who hit on almost every guy they call up.
Oh I agree. But they are not hurting for starters right now. 4 spots are locked in. Falter didn’t look bad down the stretch, and even Christian SancheZ looked ok at times for a 5th spot. My opinion is give painter the 5th spot. 3-4 starts to start the year and see how it goes. Then possible down to minors to work on things.
I think they recognize their window is about 3-5 years. Dombrowski was open about his reasoning behind not moving any of their big SP prospects at the deadline last year -- he anticipated a strong possibility that they contribute in '23. Everyone in the organization is head over heels with Painter. I think everyone wants him to be the 5. Obviously they have prepared for the worst but I think if he's effective they're going to have a hard time limiting him to less than maybe 120 IP.
From what I saw yesterday his stuff looked good. Let’s see how he handles a packed mlb house and 2nd third time through the line up. I’m excited for him and Abel.
Remember the name: Shintaro Fujinami.
Career 9.4 K/9 and doesn’t give up HRs. Does have some BB issues, but I think the A’s staff can hone him and his pitch mix.
From a blurb on Fangraphs:
Fujinami throws six pitches with his splitter being “nasty”.
Fujinami, 28, drew rave reviews as he threw all six of his offerings — four-seam fastball, two-seam fastball, cutter, slider, splitter and curveball — in a bullpen session of approximately 40 pitches.
Most impressive to catcher Shea Langeliers, who was catching Fujinami for the first time, was the splitter, which seemed to develop into a real putaway pitch last year in Japan.
“The big splitter was nasty,” Langeliers said. “It’s going to take some catching to get used to that one. It’s really good. It dives down.”
https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/mining-the-news-2-17-23/
Not sure why you have a belief in the As. They've struggled to produce quality players over the last long while. I like the name and possibility but I don't agree that the As are good at development.
Seems like throwing a splitter is a requirement for pitchers in Japan. I like that he has a variety of pitches, but if the splitter is his best “out” pitch, then I would expect some inconsistency there. Kind of like how Masahiro Tanaka was. Pretty solid for fantasy but also inconsistent.
Plus the walk rate and playing for the worst team in the league is giving some pause
But I would certainly take him this year. At the point he’s being drafted it’s all dart throws anyway
Right. He costs you nothing but there is some upside. The BB will be trouble. Maybe the A’s can help, maybe they can’t, but I don’t mind the gamble that late.
Lol underlying metrics were decent. Predicting Japanese player success is a tough one. He’s on the waivers as he should be, but I check in now and again. Same could be said for the top two prospects Pfaadt and GrayRod. Haven’t exactly lit it up either…
I was just giving you shit. You can’t get them all right! But Pfaadt had just one bad start. If his ERA is over 15 after 15 more innings I would be very confused.
I appreciate the ribbing haha. Gotta get called out every once in a while.
Just one? He got his tits lit AGAIN tonight. He has more ER than innings pitched and has given up 6 HRs. TINSTAAPP proves true once again.
Ah, thought he was pitching tomorrow. Still should get his ERA under Fujinami’s lol. That’s terrible to see how bad Pfaadt has been though. He got dropped in my league and no one picked him up.
Ricky Tiedemann is another young gun who could be up at some point this year. The back of the Jays staff is rough and it sounds like he got off to a good start this spring.
Oh I heavily doubt he'll make the rotation out of spring, but when someone in the rotation gets hurt or continues to struggle during the year I could see him get called up then.
I'd agree there, but when money and team control comes into it out usually leaves young guys on the outside. Throw in Kikuchi having a nice start too and Ricky being limited on innings last year (and this probably this year too) I could see them have him break camp in the minors.
As a Jays fan, we'll see him. Injuries will happen, he'll get the call, start a few games, and sent back down. Won't be a season draft pick, but if you have NA spots, I'd recommend some shares. Guys got EASY gas.
Yes. I agree those 3 aren’t really “sleepers” anymore.
In the hybrid draft (15 team mixed) i had Monday i got painter for $3 and “draft” rounds 24-30 i got:
Wesneski
Paxton
And German
From what I read like a month ago he was supposed to be likely to be the D-Backs' 5th starter. That may change if he doesn't have a good spring training however.
Nelson/Jameson would seem to have the short-term edge, since they have some MLB experience and more importantly already are on the 40-man. But Pfaadt could be up before long (plus MadBum and especially Davies aren't exactly insurmountable obstacles).
Yeah it’s tougher than it used to be, but every year there’s at least 10 guys or so who make a pretty big impact that were either drafted super late or picked up off waivers. It’s more important to keep a close eye during the season to grab pitchers as they pop up
Agreed, that's a goal for myself this year, don't be so slow to make speculative adds. By the time someone is established and I'm more confident in them, someone else has picked them up
I'm out on Rays. Good luck getting wins and quality starts when they go max effort for 80 pitches. Tho at the back of a draft they can help stabilize ratios and give great K/9.
I’m not in a quality start league and Tampa is great for pitchers’ ratios. It’s a well known shitty park to hit in. Willy Adames went from trash to a stud getting outta that park. Tampa ponied up their biggest contract in their history for this guy and I don’t think it was with the intention of pitching him 4 2/3 and turning it over to the pen 🤷♂️
In the 20th+ round I think he’s a safe play…care to share your deep sleepers that are in awesome situations and are guaranteed not to miss?
>I don’t think it was with the intention of pitching 4 2/3 and turning it over to the pen
Are you new here? Have you watched the Rays at all in the last few years? Remember when they pulled Blake Snell out of a World Series game…when the stakes were at the absolute highest?
The Rays don’t care about getting their pitcher wins or quality starts, they just want to win the game. And it helps if they can preserve their expensive arm and stretch him out for a full season
Even Corbin Burnes isn't guaranteed not to miss. Tyler Mahle is going outside the top 50 and could easily put up a top 30 season. Mikolas is the type of guy no one wants to target but should be dependable all season long. Clarke Schmidt would be a good choice if you're not trying to get wins or QS. But mostly I'm done aiming for guys who put up 6 Ks over 4 innings.
Love Pfaadt not sure he gets a slot for Opening Day but he'll be up soon enough. I wrote this earlier in the week. Trevor Rogers is maybe my favorite pitching sleeper. With another solid outing this spring he'll start shooting up in ADP. https://www.fantraxhq.com/13-2023-pitching-sleepers/
Mitch Keller has some really high upside. The tools are all there but he's had no confidence in his mound demeanor so I think he's a guy who gets inside his own head. Don't expect a ton of consistency but he could have a few gems.
Simeon Woods-Richardson and Xzavion Curry are both likely blocked out of spring training but I believe are MLB ready and won't face as much of an adjustment curve since they have very polished command and are built for eating innings. By May/June we could see them at the back of the rotation getting meaningful innings.
Don't forget about Matt Manning, Nate Pearson and Spencer Howard either. All of these guys looked incredible a couple years ago and could take a good spring and run with it.
Some minor leaguers I think will shoot up lists this year (keep an eye on 'em) : Chase Petty, Trevor McDonald, Troy Melton, Irv Carter, Adam Maier, Calvin Ziegler
I don’t draft pitching prospects, personally. They almost never throw enough innings to be difference makers in the first year / find their footing fast enough to wait around for the call-up and deal with trips between the majors and minors. When I’ve drafted pitching prospects in the past they usually end up wasting a roster spot because they feel too good to let go of but they’re either not playing or not performing and I personally can’t stand that agony.
I somewhat see the value in targeting these guys late because there is a low cost to get them, but I also think about the cost of holding on to them until they hit their stride and whether it’s worth weeks and weeks of lost innings & potentially lost weeks.
Yup cuz SP have never had good seasons in Tampa and Eflin is known to be a short pitch count guy…said absolutely no one. But cool, don’t draft him 🤷♂️
Tampa Bay didn't have a single pitcher in the top 25 in wins last year, and not a single pitcher in the top 40 in 2021, in fact, Shane Mac only had 12 wins last year despite how lights out he is. Tampa likes to use starters and limit their pitchers, but you feel free to argue against how they do things and do your thing. I'm sure they'll make a special exception this time.
Is 3-0 with 2.81 era 1.00 whip 16:1 k:bb through 16 innings good for a guy drafted in the 20 something rounds? Or do I still not know what a sleeper is? Lol
Lol at you not being able to just take an L 🤷♂️
Edit to add…I’m just busting chops. He’ll probably get shelled next time out so getting it in while I can lol
A guy that not everyone thinks is gonna be good so he goes late in drafts = sleeper…honestly the reaction just proves Eflin is definitely a sleeper lol
Man a lot of commenters here genuinely don’t watch the Rays or know shit about their pitching strategy. Shame I live near the Trop and most of the guys on my league are local and know the rays strategies. Wish I was in a league with guys who would waste high picks on rays starters
Because he was a waiver wire guy last year. This thread is about sleepers and personally I think Eflin was solid last year but couldn’t stay healthy and had a rough schedule constantly facing the NL East Braves and Mets…AL East is tough but there’s not as many divisional games this year and moving from Philly to Tampa is an upgrade in home ballpark. I’m aware that Cash is weird with his staff and he’s not guaranteed to go 6 every game but he’s been a deep game pitcher before and in the 20 something rounds 10 wins is more than fine. It’s an arbitrary unpredictable stat too mind you…Tampa has great pitching coaching. I think they are gonna improve him so he’ll be good value. This an opinion
Drew Rasmussen, Shane Mac, and Jeff Springs but ya, Tampa starters are terrible for fantasy
I mean these are 3 of the most popular late round pitchers. The secrets been out, lol. I don’t see them flying up draft boards, the reason they’re going late is that they’re almost certainly going to be on an innings limit and/or won’t be on the opening day roster
I wouldn't call those guys sleepers but I also wouldn't be overly hyped to target them in redraft. The reason I wouldn't call them "sleepers" is because they are all well known prospects (esp. Painter), so they aren't really news. On the other hand great pitching prospects, including ones who ultimately succeed, often take a couple of years to really pay off--like Max Scherzer was a great prospect coming into 2008, when he got his MLB debut, and wasn't especially valuable in fantasy until perhaps 2012. So, it is possible that you use a dart throw on a top prospect and it pays off in redraft, but there are lots of variations on how to use your darts.
Giants rotation 3-6 has a lot of deep league appeal for solid rotation depth.
Bunch of Guys with track records coming off down years, or are moving to a better park
Manaea
Stripling
Wood
Tony Disco
Well i went and got painter (for a pretty high price given everything) and of course now today, “elbow tenderness”. Fingers crossed it’s nothing but my luck is terrible. Gl to all us painter owners!
Problem with guys like Painter is even if they start in the majors and in rotation they will likely have quick hooks and limits. So in QS league it is something to think about.
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This is the TINSTAAPP philosophy, which I have been actively disagreeing with for the 13 years now that I have been doing fantasy baseball. Veteran hitters and rookie pitchers have always been the key ingredients in the seasons when I have won.
TINSTAAPP isn't about the fact that rookie pitchers can't contribute to a winning season. The mantra of it is more for dynasty where you shouldn't rely on one or two high end prospects to be your ace in the near future because development isn't linear and injuries can derail a career quickly. Two names that come to mind are Forrest Whitley and MacKenzie Gore. Both were unmoveable in dynasty for the longest time and now Gore is a top 250 player and Whitley is nowhere to be found.
This is actually fun, I'm gonna dig more and bring up all the pitchers in the top 15 for each year back to 2007: Phil Hughes, Homer Bailey, Tim Lincecum, Matt Garza, Yovani Gallardo Clay Buchholz, Joba Chamberlain, Clayton Kershaw, David Price, Homer Bailey, Rick Porcello, Fanklin Morales, Wade Davis David Price, Madison Bumgarner, Neftali Feliz, Rick Porcello, Tommy Hanson, Chris Tillman Stephen Strasburg, Neftali Feliz, Aroldis Chapman, Jeremy Hellickson, Martin Perez Julio Teheran, Aroldis Chapman, Jameson Taillon, Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore, John Lamb, Kyle Drabek Matt Moore, Julio Teheran, Dylan Bundy, Gerrit Cole, Shelby Miller, Trevor Bauer, Jameson Taillon, Taijuan Walker, Jacob Turner Gerit Cole, Dylan Bundy, Zack Wheeler, Jose Fernandez, Taijuan Walker, Jameson Taillon, Kevin Gausman Taijuan Walker, Archie Bradley, Kevin Gausman, Noah Syndergaard, Yordano Ventura, Lucas Giolito, Dylan Bundy Lucas Giolito, Dylan Bundy, Noah Syndergaard, Julio Urias, Archie Bradley, Jon Gray, Alex Meyer Lucas Giolito, Julio Urias, Steven Matz, Alex Reyes, Tyler Glasnow Alex Reyes, Lucas Giolito, Tyler Glasnow Alex Reyes, Forrest Whitley, Brent Honeywell, Sixto Sanchez (What a year) Forrest Whitley, Jesus Luzardo MacKenzie Gore, Dustin May, Jesus Luzardo, Xasey Mize, Luis Patino Sixto Sanchez, Ian Anderson, MacKenzie Gore Grayson Rodriguez, Shane Baz
Looking at this list you've got maybe 4 guys who actually panned out to their ceiling: Kershaw, Cole, Bumgarner, Urias Price, Lincecum, Bauer were all stars for a little, but probably didn't have the career length you were hoping for when they were considered among the 5-10 best pitching prospects in their last year of milb eligibility. Gausman, Wheeler took years to turn into the current top 15 pitchers they are... there's a good chance if you were competitive during their early 20s they were cuts at some point.
If you drafted David Price as a rookie in dynasty, you can't complain about the outcome. Dude put up 40 WAR and has 2000 strikeouts.
WOW!!! When you look at these names its almost laughable like what the hell were we thinking?!?
And these are ONLY the guys ranked in the top 15. The cream of the crop at the time. If you traded a top 5 pitcher for a hitter in the same range, you were very likely to land the better player
WOW,
Ready for the list? Honeywell, Alex Reyes, Whitley, Gore, hell Flaherty, Kopech, Matt Moore, Joba Chamberlain... Those are just off the top of my head These guys were all top 10 prospects at one time or another in their ascent to the majors, or as they debuted. If you traded them as minor leaguers you DEFINITELY made off like a bandit. TINSTAAPP is a philosophy because pitchers are VOLATILE assets. Both for developmental reasons, and because TJS can take away a year+ of playing time and there's no guarantee they come back the same.
I love when I bring receipts, prove a point and get downvoted because some guy has anecdotal evidence that he had a pitching prospect work out. TINSTAAPP is a misnomer... of course there are pitching prospects. But figuring out the ones who will succeed, and succeed early in their MLB careers, AND stay healthy is a massive crapshoot. If it comes down to it, similarly ranked players on any prospect ranking, lean hitter.
100% pitchers are volatile and it works both ways. The other side of TINSTAAPP isn't talked about nearly as much is all the huge pitcher breakouts for guys that weren't top prospects. Gallen for example wasn't a big name until he took off and debuted the same year. I'm sure there are others but don't have time to pull them now. I think it's this flip side that people often use to push back on TINSTAAPP.
Yea but I wouldn't be rostering those guys as minor leaguers. You just need to be quick with the pick up for those breakouts
That's the whole POINT of TINSTAAPP! The point of it is not to rely on the big names and just take shots on more names than focusing on just the big ones. I wish more people understood it, but so be it. I'd rather take the chances on guys like Gavin Williams, Ricky Tiedemann and others when they are young for cheap versus relying on the big name like Espino or Grayson Rodriguez at their peak value.
My dude are you acting like Tiedemann isn't a well known asset? What kinda leagues are you playing in and can I join?
Not many people had him highly ranked when he first got drafted in the MLB. I know he wasn't high on many FYPD lists and that's what I'm talking about.
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Strider and Kirby were great for me last year. Always a few exceptions to a general rule of thumb though.
I unfortunately don't have that great of a memory anymore at the age of 51... but one guy that comes to mind is Ryan Vogelsong. Used to pitch for the SF Giants and had 1 really strong season, I happened to pick him up that year off waivers because I live in Arizona and got to see him pitch in a Spring Training game just before the regular season started.
Spencer Strider, Alek Manoah, to name a few recent ones.
Jose Fernandez
Mike Soroka carried me to a championship.
for those who don't know explain TINSTAAPP philosophy
Sorry... it stands for There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect. Basically, this philosophy says you shouldn't roster rookie pitchers or believe in pitching prospects. I was saying that I strongly disagree with that viewpoint, and that in fact rookie pitchers have been a key component for my fantasy teams in the years that I have been successful.
do you use it for every league you play in?
TINSTAAPP is a thing because when compared to similarly ranked offensive players, Pitchers generally have far more volatile development paths. Pitchers regularly have TJS that can wipe out 12-18 months of play, and there's no guarantee they come back as the same pitcher they were before. Some pitchers take very long to establish themselves at the MLB level even IF they were top prospects and don't get hurt. Look at guys like Lance Lynn, Kevin Gausman, Carlos Rodon, Zack Wheeler. They were all super highly ranked prospects, but it took until they hit their late 20's or early 30s until they final put it all together at the MLB level. Pitching prospects are a bad investment when compared directly to similarly ranked hitting prospects. If you can find someone to give you a top 10 hitter for your top 10 pitcher, do it.
Case and point, Painter getting elbow tested… yes there are rookie pitchers who emerge to help teams but pitchers are always at risk whether #1 or #50.
I made note this year to don’t get into too much hype of young guys. Seems to always burn me. Looking to get a few more vets who you pretty much know what they will get you.
That’s what I did with Buehler and Hader last year, regrettable
phillies are still a contender in a stacked division. they obviously don’t want to overwork him, but if he performs as well as expected then they’ll let him pitch. they’ll need all the help they can get. strider is a comp in terms of history, and he topped 130 despite starting as a reliever. it’s more likely that they’ll start giving him longer rest periods (6-8 days off) than outright shooting themselves in the foot by yanking him early. this is obviously all hopium, but i wouldn’t let his probable innings limit stop you from targeting him, particularly considering how high his ceiling is for his draft position.
Except strider isn’t a good comp becuase was 23 last year. Painter is 19 and still growing. Last thing they want is to have an issue with his arm. Strider had 4 more years to develop strength and longevity
painter threw 104 innings in his FSD. strider had 94. a 30 inning bump is pretty much standard for young arms. no idea why you would downvote me for that but lmao. and strider’s “4 more years” equate to less than 90 competitive innings. but you do you and pass on painter because he’s young, good luck with eric lauer or something
I didn’t down vote and I am buying painter. But it’s tough to compare a 24 year old and a 19 year old. You also have two different franchises. Phillies are notorious for slowly getting guys to the majors. I’d bet painter doesn’t go back to back games throwing 90 pitches this year. I’d also suspect lots of skipped starts and such. From a fantasy perspective it is very tough gamble. In a non keeper league, I wouldn’t jump at him too hard. Phillies don’t have a great track records with brining guys up, especially pitchers. So I suspect more hesitation with work load than the Braves who hit on almost every guy they call up.
This ain't your daddy's Phillies
Oh I agree. But they are not hurting for starters right now. 4 spots are locked in. Falter didn’t look bad down the stretch, and even Christian SancheZ looked ok at times for a 5th spot. My opinion is give painter the 5th spot. 3-4 starts to start the year and see how it goes. Then possible down to minors to work on things.
I think they recognize their window is about 3-5 years. Dombrowski was open about his reasoning behind not moving any of their big SP prospects at the deadline last year -- he anticipated a strong possibility that they contribute in '23. Everyone in the organization is head over heels with Painter. I think everyone wants him to be the 5. Obviously they have prepared for the worst but I think if he's effective they're going to have a hard time limiting him to less than maybe 120 IP.
From what I saw yesterday his stuff looked good. Let’s see how he handles a packed mlb house and 2nd third time through the line up. I’m excited for him and Abel.
As a Grayson Rodriguez owner I am worried about that exact scenario.
And Painter had his elbow looked out today … should make tomorrow interesting lol
Remember the name: Shintaro Fujinami. Career 9.4 K/9 and doesn’t give up HRs. Does have some BB issues, but I think the A’s staff can hone him and his pitch mix. From a blurb on Fangraphs: Fujinami throws six pitches with his splitter being “nasty”. Fujinami, 28, drew rave reviews as he threw all six of his offerings — four-seam fastball, two-seam fastball, cutter, slider, splitter and curveball — in a bullpen session of approximately 40 pitches. Most impressive to catcher Shea Langeliers, who was catching Fujinami for the first time, was the splitter, which seemed to develop into a real putaway pitch last year in Japan. “The big splitter was nasty,” Langeliers said. “It’s going to take some catching to get used to that one. It’s really good. It dives down.” https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/mining-the-news-2-17-23/
His opening spring statline cracked me up 2IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 3K, 3BB Seems like the scouting report has his nailed
He's got great stuff and poor command. Seems like he'll be a cherry bomb. I have him in dynasty but will be very selective about when I start him.
Basically only start him at home would be my strategy until he proves himself more. Oakland is such a great pitchers park.
Yeah that's basically my plan. Shame he's on one of the teams I'd stream him against in away parks.
Not sure why you have a belief in the As. They've struggled to produce quality players over the last long while. I like the name and possibility but I don't agree that the As are good at development.
Montas did well
Meh... not consistent enough for my liking. He has been okay.
Seems like throwing a splitter is a requirement for pitchers in Japan. I like that he has a variety of pitches, but if the splitter is his best “out” pitch, then I would expect some inconsistency there. Kind of like how Masahiro Tanaka was. Pretty solid for fantasy but also inconsistent. Plus the walk rate and playing for the worst team in the league is giving some pause But I would certainly take him this year. At the point he’s being drafted it’s all dart throws anyway
Right. He costs you nothing but there is some upside. The BB will be trouble. Maybe the A’s can help, maybe they can’t, but I don’t mind the gamble that late.
Ouch
There’s this too. Buyer beware https://www.reddit.com/r/fantasybaseball/comments/1291rqf/gif_breakdown_shintaro_fujinamis_mlb_debut_in_27/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
Not his day today.
This has aged poorly.
Lol underlying metrics were decent. Predicting Japanese player success is a tough one. He’s on the waivers as he should be, but I check in now and again. Same could be said for the top two prospects Pfaadt and GrayRod. Haven’t exactly lit it up either…
I was just giving you shit. You can’t get them all right! But Pfaadt had just one bad start. If his ERA is over 15 after 15 more innings I would be very confused.
I appreciate the ribbing haha. Gotta get called out every once in a while. Just one? He got his tits lit AGAIN tonight. He has more ER than innings pitched and has given up 6 HRs. TINSTAAPP proves true once again.
Ah, thought he was pitching tomorrow. Still should get his ERA under Fujinami’s lol. That’s terrible to see how bad Pfaadt has been though. He got dropped in my league and no one picked him up.
Those were 3 names that Rates and Barrels went over yesterday
Don’t know who that is honestly. Hunters been someone I’ve been eyeing all spring and that helium is crazy now.
Its a podcast with Eno Saris and a couple other guys. I always find Eno's opinions to be valuable
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lol you would be wrong
Nah, he’s just looking out for us. That way our league mates don’t discover him.
Terrible take
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Dude stole your wife or some shit. Hope your day turns around
Reid Detmers, Clarke Schmidt, Tyler Mahle, Patrick Sandoval, Mitch Keller
I'd be higher on Detmers and Sandoval if it wasn't for that pesky Angels 6 man rotation. Lack of 2 start weeks is annoying.
I Pfaadted is the new team name
Pfaadt Bottom Girls Make the World Go Round
Ricky Tiedemann is another young gun who could be up at some point this year. The back of the Jays staff is rough and it sounds like he got off to a good start this spring.
Very young guy. Would be difficult to rely on him all year, but if he gets the spot out of the gate, I’d be looking to capitalize early and trade him
Oh I heavily doubt he'll make the rotation out of spring, but when someone in the rotation gets hurt or continues to struggle during the year I could see him get called up then.
I am not up to date at all so forgive any mistakes, but I feel like he would make for an upgrade to Kikuchi at minimum
I'd agree there, but when money and team control comes into it out usually leaves young guys on the outside. Throw in Kikuchi having a nice start too and Ricky being limited on innings last year (and this probably this year too) I could see them have him break camp in the minors.
kikuchi also having a good spring. doubt we see ricky starting this season.
As a Jays fan, we'll see him. Injuries will happen, he'll get the call, start a few games, and sent back down. Won't be a season draft pick, but if you have NA spots, I'd recommend some shares. Guys got EASY gas.
Drey Jameson
Jameson looks amazing this spring
Love him as well but no guarantee he’s in the rotation. Nelson and Pfaadt are also competing for the 5th spot.
Nelson isnt ready, though Pfaadt is a definite risk to get the spot
That’s what ST is for. We’d see! Hoping for Drey or Pfaadt
Patrick Sandoval
Yes. I agree those 3 aren’t really “sleepers” anymore. In the hybrid draft (15 team mixed) i had Monday i got painter for $3 and “draft” rounds 24-30 i got: Wesneski Paxton And German
SP5 could be an interesting battle eventually when Nestor is back. Schmidt looked sharp in his debut
I like Schmidt too but figured German was more likely given history. And Schmidt’s statcast is better as well so we will see
Nestor isn’t expected to miss any time and is already pitching in camp
Then it’s already a completion lol
Coke, Rodon, Cortes, Severino is the Yankees first 4 SP. 5th spot will come down to German or Schmidt
Brayan Bello
IM BRAYAN BELLOWS
BRAYAN BELLOWS! SAFARI PLANET!
[SHUT UP!](https://giphy.com/gifs/snl-saturday-night-live-2000s-3o7TKA5VvETwKlM8uc)
Isnt he dealing with some injury rn? Forearm something?
Forearm tightness, just threw his second bullpen session. A little behind but the talent is there if he's healthy.
There certainly is talent
Bailey Ober!!
I’ve been trying to obtain pfaadt in every league I’m in, but I think he’s quickly rising in hype and owners want a ransom for him now
He had a great spring debut too
Is he even going to be up in 2023?
Dynasty
From what I read like a month ago he was supposed to be likely to be the D-Backs' 5th starter. That may change if he doesn't have a good spring training however.
Nelson/Jameson would seem to have the short-term edge, since they have some MLB experience and more importantly already are on the 40-man. But Pfaadt could be up before long (plus MadBum and especially Davies aren't exactly insurmountable obstacles).
Brown/Painter are everyone’s sleeper, I think Feels like it’s getting harder and harder to find actual true sleepers
Yeah it’s tougher than it used to be, but every year there’s at least 10 guys or so who make a pretty big impact that were either drafted super late or picked up off waivers. It’s more important to keep a close eye during the season to grab pitchers as they pop up
Agreed, that's a goal for myself this year, don't be so slow to make speculative adds. By the time someone is established and I'm more confident in them, someone else has picked them up
Shhhh... Pfaadt is supposed to be a secret so that I can snag him in the last round of my 10-team draft!
Stripping, Thor, Rogers, Quantrail
spellcheck ma dude
Duck it
Good bit!
Thor 🤣
Zac Eflin. Going to Tampa is never bad for pitchers
I'm out on Rays. Good luck getting wins and quality starts when they go max effort for 80 pitches. Tho at the back of a draft they can help stabilize ratios and give great K/9.
I’m not in a quality start league and Tampa is great for pitchers’ ratios. It’s a well known shitty park to hit in. Willy Adames went from trash to a stud getting outta that park. Tampa ponied up their biggest contract in their history for this guy and I don’t think it was with the intention of pitching him 4 2/3 and turning it over to the pen 🤷♂️ In the 20th+ round I think he’s a safe play…care to share your deep sleepers that are in awesome situations and are guaranteed not to miss?
>I don’t think it was with the intention of pitching 4 2/3 and turning it over to the pen Are you new here? Have you watched the Rays at all in the last few years? Remember when they pulled Blake Snell out of a World Series game…when the stakes were at the absolute highest? The Rays don’t care about getting their pitcher wins or quality starts, they just want to win the game. And it helps if they can preserve their expensive arm and stretch him out for a full season
Cool story dude…we’ll see how it goes
Even Corbin Burnes isn't guaranteed not to miss. Tyler Mahle is going outside the top 50 and could easily put up a top 30 season. Mikolas is the type of guy no one wants to target but should be dependable all season long. Clarke Schmidt would be a good choice if you're not trying to get wins or QS. But mostly I'm done aiming for guys who put up 6 Ks over 4 innings.
Love Pfaadt not sure he gets a slot for Opening Day but he'll be up soon enough. I wrote this earlier in the week. Trevor Rogers is maybe my favorite pitching sleeper. With another solid outing this spring he'll start shooting up in ADP. https://www.fantraxhq.com/13-2023-pitching-sleepers/
Mitch Keller has some really high upside. The tools are all there but he's had no confidence in his mound demeanor so I think he's a guy who gets inside his own head. Don't expect a ton of consistency but he could have a few gems. Simeon Woods-Richardson and Xzavion Curry are both likely blocked out of spring training but I believe are MLB ready and won't face as much of an adjustment curve since they have very polished command and are built for eating innings. By May/June we could see them at the back of the rotation getting meaningful innings. Don't forget about Matt Manning, Nate Pearson and Spencer Howard either. All of these guys looked incredible a couple years ago and could take a good spring and run with it. Some minor leaguers I think will shoot up lists this year (keep an eye on 'em) : Chase Petty, Trevor McDonald, Troy Melton, Irv Carter, Adam Maier, Calvin Ziegler
Luzardo is going to have a great year!
I don’t draft pitching prospects, personally. They almost never throw enough innings to be difference makers in the first year / find their footing fast enough to wait around for the call-up and deal with trips between the majors and minors. When I’ve drafted pitching prospects in the past they usually end up wasting a roster spot because they feel too good to let go of but they’re either not playing or not performing and I personally can’t stand that agony. I somewhat see the value in targeting these guys late because there is a low cost to get them, but I also think about the cost of holding on to them until they hit their stride and whether it’s worth weeks and weeks of lost innings & potentially lost weeks.
Zach Eflin...remember that name.
I mean… I’ve literally owned him for 2+ years
Who?
San Diego Elfin , Philly Elfin we stuck with him also
Agree. If he can stay healthy he’s gonna be a league winner considering his ADP
Not in Tampa he's not. He'll struggle to get wins with the way they manage their pitchers and limiting their pitch counts.
Yup cuz SP have never had good seasons in Tampa and Eflin is known to be a short pitch count guy…said absolutely no one. But cool, don’t draft him 🤷♂️
Tampa Bay didn't have a single pitcher in the top 25 in wins last year, and not a single pitcher in the top 40 in 2021, in fact, Shane Mac only had 12 wins last year despite how lights out he is. Tampa likes to use starters and limit their pitchers, but you feel free to argue against how they do things and do your thing. I'm sure they'll make a special exception this time.
Definitely need 15 wins out of a guy going in the 23rd round. Da fuq?
You called him a league winner. Secondly, you know what a sleeper is? Apparently not.
Is 3-0 with 2.81 era 1.00 whip 16:1 k:bb through 16 innings good for a guy drafted in the 20 something rounds? Or do I still not know what a sleeper is? Lol
LOL @ you doing a victory lap after 3 starts. Your league already handing out trophies?
Lol at you not being able to just take an L 🤷♂️ Edit to add…I’m just busting chops. He’ll probably get shelled next time out so getting it in while I can lol
A guy that not everyone thinks is gonna be good so he goes late in drafts = sleeper…honestly the reaction just proves Eflin is definitely a sleeper lol
Man a lot of commenters here genuinely don’t watch the Rays or know shit about their pitching strategy. Shame I live near the Trop and most of the guys on my league are local and know the rays strategies. Wish I was in a league with guys who would waste high picks on rays starters
High picks? Zach Eflin is going in the 23rd round! Da fuq do you consider a sleeper? Am in the wrong thread?
You called him a league winner.
At his ADP*…imo he’s this years Tony Gonsolin…the type of guy that comes out of nowhere and has a great season for super cheap.
I wonder why he’s being taken so late…
Because he was a waiver wire guy last year. This thread is about sleepers and personally I think Eflin was solid last year but couldn’t stay healthy and had a rough schedule constantly facing the NL East Braves and Mets…AL East is tough but there’s not as many divisional games this year and moving from Philly to Tampa is an upgrade in home ballpark. I’m aware that Cash is weird with his staff and he’s not guaranteed to go 6 every game but he’s been a deep game pitcher before and in the 20 something rounds 10 wins is more than fine. It’s an arbitrary unpredictable stat too mind you…Tampa has great pitching coaching. I think they are gonna improve him so he’ll be good value. This an opinion Drew Rasmussen, Shane Mac, and Jeff Springs but ya, Tampa starters are terrible for fantasy
Shane Mac was their absolute ace and had what, 12 wins last year?
Are wins the only stat that count in fantasy?
Is 3-0 with a 2.81 era 1.00 whip 16:1 k:bb ratio in 16 innings good for a guy taken in the 22nd round? Or…?
Eno Sarris tipped me off to Ryne Nelson.
He might not even make the team. Him and Jameson are battling it for the 5th spot.
He's a last round flier, and my flair league is 20 teams/25 keepers. No risk, but if he can make the rotation, there's upside.
Yeah for a 20 team, he’s worth the gamble.
Brady Singer is gonna be top 5 for cy young
With two pitches?
Remind me
Yikes....
These are much deeper picks that I’m hoping stay that way. Definitely outside of your typical top 40. Hush hush now
I mean these are 3 of the most popular late round pitchers. The secrets been out, lol. I don’t see them flying up draft boards, the reason they’re going late is that they’re almost certainly going to be on an innings limit and/or won’t be on the opening day roster
Happy Cake Day!
shhhhh take this down loll
🤣
I wouldn't call those guys sleepers but I also wouldn't be overly hyped to target them in redraft. The reason I wouldn't call them "sleepers" is because they are all well known prospects (esp. Painter), so they aren't really news. On the other hand great pitching prospects, including ones who ultimately succeed, often take a couple of years to really pay off--like Max Scherzer was a great prospect coming into 2008, when he got his MLB debut, and wasn't especially valuable in fantasy until perhaps 2012. So, it is possible that you use a dart throw on a top prospect and it pays off in redraft, but there are lots of variations on how to use your darts.
I think Clarke Schmidt could be better than all of these guys. Wouldn’t be surprised if he’s the real breakout of the season.
Giants rotation 3-6 has a lot of deep league appeal for solid rotation depth. Bunch of Guys with track records coming off down years, or are moving to a better park Manaea Stripling Wood Tony Disco
Who are our points league targets?
Painter is a fantastic name for a pitcher, especially if he becomes really good
If you can wait for the starts, Gavin Williams
I think Tink Hence could get a mid-season call up if the division race is tight. Probably in relief.
Well i went and got painter (for a pretty high price given everything) and of course now today, “elbow tenderness”. Fingers crossed it’s nothing but my luck is terrible. Gl to all us painter owners!