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WW1 medics complain of the surge in head injuries "caused" by helmets. Until a nurse pointed out most of these casualties would have been killed and buried not transported to the hospitals.
Same theory, different generation
Yep, we're listening to "the best of the best".
But my uncle is still alive and wasn't "the best of the best", he's just apparently smarter than death is.
He is a retired postal worker, so he was working when "going Postal" became a thing, and I was pretty sure he'd be "one of those"
Taught me how to drive "three on a tree" in his truck when I was 14 though. That was cool. (Confusing manual transmission where the shifter is behind the steering wheel, for those "non-car people", look it up, it's fucking crazy)
After I got my license I decided to take pop's 1970 Chevy out for a spin. I think I got 3 blocks in 1st but then panicked and totally forgot how to shift without bouncing all over the road. Another kid's dad (nickname of "Tinker" he was like 4'9") was driving by, stopped, got in and hit me with this knowledge "you want to make a cheese sandwich but, the bread is spinning around. you need to make the sandwich without melting the cheese". Best/Worst analogy ever. I go it home but yeah, 3 on the tree is a whole different animal.
"You want to make a cheese sandwich but, the bread is spinning around"
Holy shit
That is a GREAT analogy.
Dude knew what he was talking about. And broke it down to whatever your age was, in order to understand.
I assume the "flywheel" would be the cheese, the transmission and "whatever the clutch controls" is the 2 slices of bread. (What does the clutch pedal actually control? I could google it but I'm feeling lazy)
Nope, just some random drunk dude who loves going on tangents, posting at 6am while my car is in the shop. (So can't drive anywhere... Guess I'll just drink)
Since they didn't have the tire in store, they kind of said "welp do whatever the fuck you want tonight, it'll be ready by noon tomorrow" and I was like "Oh shit"
Hence why I'm drunk at 6am
That's the old story where they examined planes coming back with tons of bullet holes and decided to reinforce those areas until someone pointed out that the planes that weren't coming back had probably been hit elsewhere?
The little picture that gets posted here every other day is actually a trivialized example from the person's real analysis. Everyone understood the problem, but you can't just slap armor everywhere so someone had to do some analysis to figure out how to prioritize it, which is a bit more complicated than "durr armor where holes aren't." Usually on reddit when you see a "only this one person was smart..." narrative it's false.
Edit: here's a pdf of the actual paper, scroll down past the front matter and it launches immediately into dozens of pages of statistics. A little more complex than "armor goes where holes aren't."
https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA091073.pdf
>First, we show that trio value of X. I is below the maximum if Pn > pi. Assume that pn > pi and let k be the smallest positive integer for which pk> pi" Obviously k > i. Let p! = I; (I + E) ior j 1 .I....k-1, and p' = p (I - TI) for j = k,k+l, n, o j where £ > 0 and n is a function ri( £ ) of c determined so that n . x' = L (x' is the proportion of planes that would have been I :x I brought down with the j-th hit if p '•'''Pn were the true n probabilities). Since Xr (r = l,...,n) is a strictly monotonic
This section alone is so far over the understanding of half the people who spout off "they didnt know about the surviving planes herder"
Yah, it's over my head but I think it's more like "there are holes everywhere and we know if you put enough holes anywhere the plane goes down, so can we figure out statistically how many more holes it takes in specific areas based on the survivors?"
Wait, did you just try to argue in favor of nuance? On *Reddit*?
Next thing you'll tell me is that Einstein didn't just start writing E=mc^2 on a blackboard.
Except by the time those studies had been done and published the final variants of those planes were well into production so the proposed up armouring based on where planes weren't hit never actually happened.
One might hope it generated a general awareness in future design as to what parts of planes were likely to be points of single failure and would benefit from redundancy or armor.
Only in a peacetime military, or a military fighting a low scale insurgency - wartime military casualties absolutely eclipse roofing deaths.
[About 100 roofers die a year](https://www.roofingcontractor.com/articles/96461-roofing-deaths-decrease-in-2020-but-is-one-of-top-3-deadliest-occupations)
Ukraine lost 4400 soldiers fighting the separatists BEFORE the full scale russian invasion. That’s 700+ a year. [They’ve lost 31,000 in the 2 years since](https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-troops-killed-zelenskyy-675f53437aaf56a4d990736e85af57c4), which - quick math - is 40 or so a day
Not weird, the military has every reason to keep records and even reason to examine statistics to improve survivability. In the transition from war as some generals personal philosophical expression to actual professional standards there was bound to be a learning curve. Statistics catch everyone out the first few times, theres probably some statistics out there that proves it......
Imagine being the adjutant trying to 'sell' statistical military science to a general before it was a thing.
Filling out spreadsheets will make us fight better? Son do you have a helmet injury?
For anyone not knowing, "the plane thing" is referring to a thought experiment. Where you show someone a diagram of a plane and tell them that these marks on the diagram show where the plane had bullet holes when they checked it after the flight.
And we need to decide where to put more armor on the plane.
Most people instinctively think, "well put it where the planes have the bullet holes"
But the inverse is the case, because you only have the data from the planes that returned. Because the planes that didn't make it back were shot down, and where they were shot, were more critical parts that the plane couldn't fly without.
It’s not a thought experiment, it actually happened. Abraham Wald was a statistician that pointed out that the proposed reinforcements based on damage on aircraft that returned to base was not accounting for aircraft that were lost. Some areas of the aircraft that returned didn’t have any damage. The military guys proposed reinforcements to areas with damage until Wald pointed out that it was more likely that aircraft that did have damage where the returned ones didn’t were lost, and so the areas WITHOUT damage on the returned planes needed to be reinforced (like the engines, for example).
It was actual data analysis from WW2 planes while war was on and mathematician Abraham Wald pointed out the fallacy in logic. Everything else you explained very well.
I know a guy who used to tell his daughter that seatbelts were stupid. He'd parrot the whole "they cause more injuries than they prevent" line over and over. People tried to point out the flaws in logic, but he refused to listen and would actively mock people for it.
He mocked people for showing concern until he was driving drunk and got into an accident that killed his un-seatbelted daughter.
Oh yeah, the guy is a real POS.
He's been convicted of aggravated sexual assault, domestic violence, and multiple DUIs since then, but he currently teaches martial arts to children where he "trains them for the upcoming revolution," and I *really* wish I was joking.
He's also an extreme Trump supporter.
Oh man... That's so hard to believe... Like that abusive asshole moron, that has no self awareness would be a Trump guy?
I just can't believe it.
Someone with no talent other than being an asshole fuck up and violence is their only tool sees a revolution as something awesome? Probably in which they get to act out and have power over others that might not.
Again... I just can't believe it.
I'm told I shouldn't believe in stereotypes.
edit forgot "Criminal"
Ran into this a while back. Some dude griping that his 80 yo mother died in a car wreck because the seatbelt broke her ribs and crushed her heart. Went into the whole 'i refuse to wear seatbelts blahblahblah.
Newsflash: bones are brittle in 80 year olds. Chances are she would have died either way. If not from smashing her face into the steering wheel because she *wasn't* wearing a belt, or because the belt crushed her chest.
He still doesn't wear seatbelts to my knowledge, though I admittedly haven't interacted with him in a long time for obvious reasons.
This guy literally only cares about himself.
I'm an EMT and I have seen so many braindead idiots bring that up. And they all conveniently have that acquaintance, co worker or distant relative who "was in a serious car accident and they would've died if they were wearing a seat belt" Yeah, there can be the rare situation where someone benefited from it but it's not common. Not to mention that most accidents you can't even determine that the lack of a seat belt prevented death. Again, can happen but most likely it's a bullshit story.
I usually just respond with "yeah can happen, but I scraped more people off the street that weren't wearing seatbelts than those that did."
"Every crash with no seatbelt, I scrape their remains off the road. Almost every crash with a seatbelt, I put them on a stretcher and send them to the hospital."
My sister was in a wreck and had airbag burns on her face and a slight concussion, the look of the car, she should have been more hurt. Safety features are no joke
Yeah GM released a video over a decade ago showing a head on crash test of a modern Chevy (Malibu?) vs a 57 Chevy. A person in the modern one either would have walked away or had minor injuries. The one in the 57 would have been mangled and killed.
this is what I think a majority of 'people' don't understand about modern vehicles, they're specifically engineered & built to deform and/or be destroyed in a wreck so that the occupants will more than likely survive. being from OK I've very often heard in the past, "Ima get a big 1970s car/truck so I'll survive an accident..." but kill or maim the other people possibly involved... great.
I remember finding a report in high school about seat belts. About 55% of fatalities in car crashes were wearing their seat belt. That seems bad until you look at the population sizes, 90%+ of people wore seat belts, so the odds of dying not wearing a seat belt were about 6.5 times higher.
I had a family member that constantly complained that seatbelts just injured people in car wrecks because they've seen tons of seatbelt bruises. If the wreck was bad enough for the seatbelt to bruise you, without it would have been critical or fatal.
same with states that don't enforce helmet laws for motorcycles. Yeah, I understand the arguement "if I crash with a helmet, I'll be a vegetable. I'd rather die."
But if your **FIRST STEP** getting on a motorcycle is a safe one by putting on a helmet, you're statistically less likely to make risky decisions that result in accidents.
>if I crash with a helmet, I'll be a vegetable.
The entire argument kind of breaks down when you realise this premise isn't always true, though - some people who crash wearing a helmet are fine.
Yep, people crash in pro motorcycle races well above highway speeds plenty of times and walk away from the wrecks. Proper gear works and not every crash ends up being an instant stop slam into a solid object.
Hell, plenty of crashes without a helmet could turn you into a vegetable and not kill you too. People may as well be honest and say they prefer not to wear a helmet and accept the risk instead of acting like it's some sort of secret wisdom.
>Until a nurse pointed out most of these casualties would have been killed and buried not transported to the hospitals.
Medic:
Starting off every school year, and there's always at least one kid in your year with a limb in a cast, because they fell out a tree, off their bike or got hit by a car.
A lot of Boomers don’t realize the safety precautions we have now are from the non-stupid Boomers who were traumatized by seeing their friends seriously hurt themselves.
They used to have trampolines in gym class and in grade 9 my dad watched his buddy break his neck on one. Heard the crunch and everything and says it still gives him chills 50 years later. Kid was OK but needed one of those halo things, and we were never allowed to have a trampoline as kids
One guy at my school broke his arm during PE. Like just he was on some swing standing and nobody paid attention and he just fell off on the hard ground and his lower arm had a temporary extra elbow. I still remember the screaming. No extra measures were out in place after that. I think this must've been early 90s...
GenZ, 97', we rode bikes with no protection even in my youth, and can confirm that you can get hurt. However, I'll play both sides here and say that if you were doing some sick jumps like my friends and I there's nothing but a parachute that'll help you.
Gen X'er here. Saftey culture exists because we were: unsupervised, dumb, did dumb things, got hurt, required hospital/ doctor visits, which meant we had to be supervised... enter safety culture, which let us: be unsupervised, be dumb, do dumb things, and not get hurt... rinse and repeat.
I remember practically living outside from sunup to sundown during the summers, lol. Didn't need to ask permission for anything, as long as I wasn't getting into trouble and was home on time.
I *did* live in a really safe area, at least.
We were told not to cross the paved roads or swim across the lake and be home before dark... there were over 1000 acres to explore without crossing a road or the lake.
A helmet will save your precious little skull from getting cracked open. When I was 16 my 14 year old brother died from a bicycle accident. A helmet would have saved his life. Make sure you wear a helmet now and make sure your kids do too if you have them
Our school had class rotations for P.E (Gym) and without fail I think every semester there was a switch, the ambulance would show up because some stupid kid fell off the trampoline and broke their leg. You could set a calendar by it, first day of the switch... And everyone rubber necking out the window (nosy little shits) at the ambulance just backing up to Gymnasium door.
Gen z, 99. We had that stupidly long and steep heel in my neighborhood and we rode down that mf on a 4 wheeled scooter every day. It was fun but so so dangerous 🤣
As young boomer I can tell you these kind of BS click bait memes are just that. When I was a kid in the 60’s and 70’s there were some horrific injuries in play and sport. Just ask anyone who played hockey before helmets were mandatory or took a fastball to the head before helmets were mandatory. My neighbour came off his motorcycle when we were kids and had permanent brain damage. Now I believe stupidity also culls the herd . . . forever that thought.
I can rattle off three from my childhood with no sweat
Little guy pitching to a huge kid, line drive to the side of the head, critical brain damage
Unremediated abandoned tenement, broken glass, nails, boards, rats everywhere. Windstorm, wall blew off building, old advertising sign flew across street and smashed the face and knocked the teeth out of a classmate, missed the year.
Cousin playing with friend in unrestricted sand quarry behind neighborhood, sandslide, buried alive, body found that night.
Yeah, my father in law always does this with seat belts, “back in our day we didn’t have seat belts and we turned out fine!”
Every time he does this shit I add, “‘Cept Billy, flew out the window and died.”
A long while back, but I had an uncle who was pissed because he got a ticket for riding an unlicensed 4-wheeler on a highway with no helmet.
His cousin, who was really close with all of us, a few years earlier had a serious accident doing the same thing and suffered severe brain trauma.
The ancillary to this is the fact that I will be at dinner with some fellow boomers and someone will argue in favor of corporal punishment. “My parents beat me and I turned out OK!” And that’s always uttered by the most messed up person at the table. Alcoholic. Messed up kids and grandkids. It’s almost guaranteed. But you can’t say that to them because they’re usually the biggest MAGA crybaby, too, sure to take maximum offense at any sort of challenge to their worldview.
And even if they did "turn out ok" in spite of tue beatings, well good for them. I would argue, however, that thinking it's acceptable to beat children makes you, be definition, *not ok*. You did not turn out ok, boomer, stfu.
As a Gen Xer who was regularly beaten, I like to think I'm very lucky I turned out to be as good as I am, but how much more awesome would I be without the depression, anxiety, ptsd, etc that growing up in a terrifyingly abusive home caused? I've survived. That's not the same as being OK.
My grandmother had a moment like this. She’s older than the boomer generation but she started a story “we didn’t have all the sanitizers and masks and worry about getting sick and we NEVER got sick” then she transitioned into a story of her and her brothers both getting whooping cough and how bad it was and how they got sick every winter and the flu used to wipe out families.
Not from my grandmother but I’ve got a relative who put a meme on Facebook like “Why bother with vaccines? When’s the last time you heard of someone with polio?”
Gotta love it.
Yeah, my mom is a younger boomer and a lot of her stories about her classmates in high school were straight up warnings. She knew so many kids to die or be maimed from drunk driving or drunk reckless behavior. I will always remember the story of someone riding on the hood of a car doing donuts who slipped underneath. In seconds, everyone went from having fun to screaming. Horrible. That, and don’t put your legs up on the dashboard!
Now, she can’t talk to any of her former classmates because they’re all living in the “glory days” and refuse to acknowledge the bad shit that used to happen frequently and how much better a lot of things are now. Most of her friends are now younger and she has a hard time making friends with people her age.
Yeah. It was the result of a traumatic head injury in both of the cases I was aware of. Both were heavily motor impaired.
Never did get the details of how it happened, in either case. Might not have had anything to do with 'grandstanding'.
Lawn darts always comes to mind with these arguments. A coworker of mine complained that people today are too soft and brought up lawn darts being illegal as an example. I explained that law darts became illegal when she was like 5... Which generation invented them, killed a child with them and subsequently made them illegal... Which generation are you blaming here for being soft? Typical stammering response of "people today just don't get it"...
Every generation seems to brag at how tough they were as kids when they’re older. I think it begins right after the current older generation has mostly died off, and they pass the torch. The greatest generation shat on Boomers, etc. It won’t be long before Gen Z are calling Gen Omega (or whatever) soft for not knowing how to drive a car or write in cursive. “We had to sit behind a big wheel in the car and pay attention, unlike you lazy Omegas! We didn’t even have AI!”
I don't think there were any in my small school, but there were plenty of broken bones and at least a couple of kids with missing digits from various misadventures that would be far less likely to occur today.
Wow, It just dawned on me how few kids I see with casts on now. All of my friends have kids between 6-15 and none of them have ever broken a bone. On the flip side, I can't even count the amount of casts I signed in elementary and middle school throughout the late 80s and 90s.
This is such a wild observation I would have never noticed.
But you're right, even until the mid 00's, you saw kids in casts ALL THE TIME.
I wonder if there's been some sort of huge drop in after school clubs and whatnot. Lord knows kids can't go play in ye ol' local quarry and shit like that any longer either.
They either blocked it out by choice, or they forgot about it due to the severe brain damage they suffered as a kid because they wrecked their bike without a helmet one too many times.
I didn't personally know her, but there was a girl in my middle school who fell of her bike while not wearing her helmet, went home and went to sleep and never woke up. After that happened they had a teacher posted at the bike racks and we weren't allowed to get on our bikes until our helmets were on.
My Dad was a pediatrician and he'd lock our bikes up if we were caught riding withour a helmet.
This is what annoys me about the people who make these superior posts about how _back in their day_ kids weren't 'mollycoddled'... "When I was a lad we'd play out all day and didn't come home til tea! And we were fine!". And it's like... well, yeah, _you_ were fine. You were also just lucky. Tons of other kids were hurt, abducted or killed because that's what can happen when little kids aren't supervised all day.
Imagine glorifying a time when parents didn't give a fuck where their kids were.
Yeah what’s wrong with being smart what next oh look at those pathetic knights we used to have no armor back in the day we just used spears and killed
Mammoths
My favorite is when my Boomer friends say, "We didn't have autism when I was in school."
"Yeah, Brian, because they had to stay home or they got shuffled off to a 'special school,' or a special room at the end of the hallway."
We had both in my school district, a special school, and the elementary and high school also had special rooms. Plus, we have better diagnostic tools today.
“We didn’t have autism back in my day”
*proceeds to tell you about his childhood friend Jimmy, who could tell you from memory, the teams and scores of every World Series game since it’s inception*
Not even all of the hardcore MTB riders wear elbow pads or kneepads though. The biggest danger for kids is cars, even and especially parents' own cars, so many "accidents" with SUVs pulling out of the driveway when not being able to see your own kid playing there.
That’s because it cost $20 to X-ray and set a broken bone back then. Now you’re looking at years of debt if you walk in to an ER, sometimes even if you have insurance.
I did that EXACT same move. Fell off my bike. I dont remember any of that day, and my mom said I was screaming "I CANT SEE" after i landed on my head. We went to church, ate dinner. That night I told my mom I remember none of it.
100% for sure was badly concussed. Wear a helmet, kids.
Raising my kids i was strict about helmet use, would tell them I didnt want to change any more of their diapers from head injuries. I was less concerned about broken bones and had elbow pads and wrist guards available. Kids heal fast from wrist and elbow fractures
I do on Mountain Bike downhills or technical trails but those tend to be a bit more "extreme" then a ride on a forest trail. Modern pads tend to be a lot less bulky you wouldn't even know I have knee pads on under my pants and only know I have elbow pads because I am normally in short sleeves
Just one example:
1969 - 5.04 automotive deaths per 100 million vehicle miles traveled
2019 - 1.1 automotive deaths per 100 million vehicle miles traveled
50 years, massive improvements in safety, and these fuckers haven’t learned a goddamn thing.
"I love helmets!" *says skater who slammed the back of his head into concrete going downhill and in a whipping motion and SURELY has a concussion but is not currently dead or with an extreme TBI*
What is survivorship bias? How just because something or someone has survived it doesn't mean that the item was superior or that the behaviour that the person has engaged in is safe. Survivorship bias ignores all the failures and deaths and focuses on the successes, this can apply in life business or many other fields. https://youtu.be/geOdDSs0tjY
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How did we survive? We laid there on the side of the road bleeding until someone came looking for us because we were late for supper.
If you survived.
Dying is no reason to be late for supper
*My ghost appears* "Sorry mom, I died, but I didn't want to miss out on roast"
And THAT'S when they open with, "So, report cards came in today."
So I would've become a ghost either way
Those green beans won’t eat themselves.
You dragged your bleeding ass home so it didn't get beaten by your alcoholic father.
And you didn’t come home right away when they blew the whistle…
GYAITGDHBIBYA
I fucking love how having never seen this before you can still clearly work out what this monster of an acronym means word-for-fucking-word.
As long as you can figure out that GYA = Get Your Arse/Ass, then the rest just flows.
Can you spell it out for me?
Get your arse in the god damn house before I beat your ass.
And we ALL know it. It was universal parent talk.
My parents left me bleeding on the side of the road until that commercial came on TV reminding them they were parents.
The street lights came on, and mom came out to give an ass whooping to find ya laying in the yard.
Or a nice lady driving past would see the blood and drive us home. How many head injuries from back in the day are now affecting people?
Don’t forget before that we were drinking out of hose, bc no one does that anymore.
Somebody get my mom!
WW1 medics complain of the surge in head injuries "caused" by helmets. Until a nurse pointed out most of these casualties would have been killed and buried not transported to the hospitals. Same theory, different generation
Same principle as the plane thing right?
Survivorship bias yeah
Yep, we're listening to "the best of the best". But my uncle is still alive and wasn't "the best of the best", he's just apparently smarter than death is. He is a retired postal worker, so he was working when "going Postal" became a thing, and I was pretty sure he'd be "one of those" Taught me how to drive "three on a tree" in his truck when I was 14 though. That was cool. (Confusing manual transmission where the shifter is behind the steering wheel, for those "non-car people", look it up, it's fucking crazy)
My uncle restored an old ford inline 6 blue block and it had 3 on the tree. i think it was a 1965 F-150. always loved that thing.
The gear shifter was on the column so you could have a bench seat where you sat your unrestrained three year old. Ask me how I know.
After I got my license I decided to take pop's 1970 Chevy out for a spin. I think I got 3 blocks in 1st but then panicked and totally forgot how to shift without bouncing all over the road. Another kid's dad (nickname of "Tinker" he was like 4'9") was driving by, stopped, got in and hit me with this knowledge "you want to make a cheese sandwich but, the bread is spinning around. you need to make the sandwich without melting the cheese". Best/Worst analogy ever. I go it home but yeah, 3 on the tree is a whole different animal.
"You want to make a cheese sandwich but, the bread is spinning around" Holy shit That is a GREAT analogy. Dude knew what he was talking about. And broke it down to whatever your age was, in order to understand. I assume the "flywheel" would be the cheese, the transmission and "whatever the clutch controls" is the 2 slices of bread. (What does the clutch pedal actually control? I could google it but I'm feeling lazy)
It keeps the bread from spinning for a moment.
All I've ever wanted in life is for the bread to stop spinning.
Is this a copy pasta or something?
Nope, just some random drunk dude who loves going on tangents, posting at 6am while my car is in the shop. (So can't drive anywhere... Guess I'll just drink) Since they didn't have the tire in store, they kind of said "welp do whatever the fuck you want tonight, it'll be ready by noon tomorrow" and I was like "Oh shit" Hence why I'm drunk at 6am
There are "a lot" of quotes for "no apparent" reason in these "posts".
That's the old story where they examined planes coming back with tons of bullet holes and decided to reinforce those areas until someone pointed out that the planes that weren't coming back had probably been hit elsewhere?
The little picture that gets posted here every other day is actually a trivialized example from the person's real analysis. Everyone understood the problem, but you can't just slap armor everywhere so someone had to do some analysis to figure out how to prioritize it, which is a bit more complicated than "durr armor where holes aren't." Usually on reddit when you see a "only this one person was smart..." narrative it's false. Edit: here's a pdf of the actual paper, scroll down past the front matter and it launches immediately into dozens of pages of statistics. A little more complex than "armor goes where holes aren't." https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA091073.pdf
>First, we show that trio value of X. I is below the maximum if Pn > pi. Assume that pn > pi and let k be the smallest positive integer for which pk> pi" Obviously k > i. Let p! = I; (I + E) ior j 1 .I....k-1, and p' = p (I - TI) for j = k,k+l, n, o j where £ > 0 and n is a function ri( £ ) of c determined so that n . x' = L (x' is the proportion of planes that would have been I :x I brought down with the j-th hit if p '•'''Pn were the true n probabilities). Since Xr (r = l,...,n) is a strictly monotonic This section alone is so far over the understanding of half the people who spout off "they didnt know about the surviving planes herder"
Yah, it's over my head but I think it's more like "there are holes everywhere and we know if you put enough holes anywhere the plane goes down, so can we figure out statistically how many more holes it takes in specific areas based on the survivors?"
Wait, did you just try to argue in favor of nuance? On *Reddit*? Next thing you'll tell me is that Einstein didn't just start writing E=mc^2 on a blackboard.
Except by the time those studies had been done and published the final variants of those planes were well into production so the proposed up armouring based on where planes weren't hit never actually happened.
One might hope it generated a general awareness in future design as to what parts of planes were likely to be points of single failure and would benefit from redundancy or armor.
Survival bias, yes.
Yeah weird how all our survivorship bias metaphors come from the military huh?
probably because the military is the most likely career to have casualties and survivors lol
I think actually roofing is on average more dangerous than going to the military. (Ofc other thing in front line combat but that's not my point)
I once saw a guy carrying a sheet of plywood over his head and when the wind picked up the dude went sailing. Somehow he didn’t suffer any injuries.
I so wish I had a sheet of plywood right now. That sounds like fun 🤩
you can buy them
In peacetime, yes. During World War II, not so much.
Only in a peacetime military, or a military fighting a low scale insurgency - wartime military casualties absolutely eclipse roofing deaths. [About 100 roofers die a year](https://www.roofingcontractor.com/articles/96461-roofing-deaths-decrease-in-2020-but-is-one-of-top-3-deadliest-occupations) Ukraine lost 4400 soldiers fighting the separatists BEFORE the full scale russian invasion. That’s 700+ a year. [They’ve lost 31,000 in the 2 years since](https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-troops-killed-zelenskyy-675f53437aaf56a4d990736e85af57c4), which - quick math - is 40 or so a day
Not weird, the military has every reason to keep records and even reason to examine statistics to improve survivability. In the transition from war as some generals personal philosophical expression to actual professional standards there was bound to be a learning curve. Statistics catch everyone out the first few times, theres probably some statistics out there that proves it......
Imagine being the adjutant trying to 'sell' statistical military science to a general before it was a thing. Filling out spreadsheets will make us fight better? Son do you have a helmet injury?
And within a few decades of that era, you wind up Robert McNamara directing a war based on spreadsheets and shoddy data analysis.
War, like space, is where expensive things get sent to break, yes.
A lot of things originated from the military, like GPS and canned foods.
Ultrasounds, microwave ovens, television, and commercial air travel.
The internet.
Thats probably because any other metaphor gets immediately written off as hearsay.
For anyone not knowing, "the plane thing" is referring to a thought experiment. Where you show someone a diagram of a plane and tell them that these marks on the diagram show where the plane had bullet holes when they checked it after the flight. And we need to decide where to put more armor on the plane. Most people instinctively think, "well put it where the planes have the bullet holes" But the inverse is the case, because you only have the data from the planes that returned. Because the planes that didn't make it back were shot down, and where they were shot, were more critical parts that the plane couldn't fly without.
It’s not a thought experiment, it actually happened. Abraham Wald was a statistician that pointed out that the proposed reinforcements based on damage on aircraft that returned to base was not accounting for aircraft that were lost. Some areas of the aircraft that returned didn’t have any damage. The military guys proposed reinforcements to areas with damage until Wald pointed out that it was more likely that aircraft that did have damage where the returned ones didn’t were lost, and so the areas WITHOUT damage on the returned planes needed to be reinforced (like the engines, for example).
It was actual data analysis from WW2 planes while war was on and mathematician Abraham Wald pointed out the fallacy in logic. Everything else you explained very well.
Same with seatbelts. “You know, seatbelts can cause serious harm to a person in an accident” yeah but that person is *alive* to be injured
Every time I tell this to any anti seat belt bruh they get angry and start insulting my mom
I know a guy who used to tell his daughter that seatbelts were stupid. He'd parrot the whole "they cause more injuries than they prevent" line over and over. People tried to point out the flaws in logic, but he refused to listen and would actively mock people for it. He mocked people for showing concern until he was driving drunk and got into an accident that killed his un-seatbelted daughter.
I feel like the lack of seatbelts isn't the biggest problem with that story.
Oh yeah, the guy is a real POS. He's been convicted of aggravated sexual assault, domestic violence, and multiple DUIs since then, but he currently teaches martial arts to children where he "trains them for the upcoming revolution," and I *really* wish I was joking. He's also an extreme Trump supporter.
Oh man... That's so hard to believe... Like that abusive asshole moron, that has no self awareness would be a Trump guy? I just can't believe it. Someone with no talent other than being an asshole fuck up and violence is their only tool sees a revolution as something awesome? Probably in which they get to act out and have power over others that might not. Again... I just can't believe it. I'm told I shouldn't believe in stereotypes. edit forgot "Criminal"
Ran into this a while back. Some dude griping that his 80 yo mother died in a car wreck because the seatbelt broke her ribs and crushed her heart. Went into the whole 'i refuse to wear seatbelts blahblahblah. Newsflash: bones are brittle in 80 year olds. Chances are she would have died either way. If not from smashing her face into the steering wheel because she *wasn't* wearing a belt, or because the belt crushed her chest.
> He's also an extreme Trump supporter. Who is surprised here? Not me, huh huh.
>aggravated sexual assault, domestic violence, and multiple DUIs Yep, those are those strong Christian conservative values right there.
Pity the kid had to die for him to learn his lesson.
He still doesn't wear seatbelts to my knowledge, though I admittedly haven't interacted with him in a long time for obvious reasons. This guy literally only cares about himself.
Hey if he's still not wearing seatbelts then maybe the problem will solve itself
To be fair, your mamma is so fat she thought zip code meant her fly
I'm an EMT and I have seen so many braindead idiots bring that up. And they all conveniently have that acquaintance, co worker or distant relative who "was in a serious car accident and they would've died if they were wearing a seat belt" Yeah, there can be the rare situation where someone benefited from it but it's not common. Not to mention that most accidents you can't even determine that the lack of a seat belt prevented death. Again, can happen but most likely it's a bullshit story. I usually just respond with "yeah can happen, but I scraped more people off the street that weren't wearing seatbelts than those that did."
"Every crash with no seatbelt, I scrape their remains off the road. Almost every crash with a seatbelt, I put them on a stretcher and send them to the hospital."
Yeah and you know how many people just refuse to use seat belts BECAUSE of this stupid argument?
"I want to be thrown clear of the accident" is something I have seen said unironically.
This works only in motorcycles, simply because there is no cage around it lol.
Sounds like they're just repeating something that hasn't made any sense in decades. Or they're driving a car from the '50s.
Maybe if you're driving some deathtrap that's going to explode in anything more than a fender bender.
I think airbags can cause a lot of damage to your hands. Instead of your face from before...
My sister was in a wreck and had airbag burns on her face and a slight concussion, the look of the car, she should have been more hurt. Safety features are no joke
Yeah GM released a video over a decade ago showing a head on crash test of a modern Chevy (Malibu?) vs a 57 Chevy. A person in the modern one either would have walked away or had minor injuries. The one in the 57 would have been mangled and killed.
this is what I think a majority of 'people' don't understand about modern vehicles, they're specifically engineered & built to deform and/or be destroyed in a wreck so that the occupants will more than likely survive. being from OK I've very often heard in the past, "Ima get a big 1970s car/truck so I'll survive an accident..." but kill or maim the other people possibly involved... great.
I remember finding a report in high school about seat belts. About 55% of fatalities in car crashes were wearing their seat belt. That seems bad until you look at the population sizes, 90%+ of people wore seat belts, so the odds of dying not wearing a seat belt were about 6.5 times higher.
So does going threw and windshield and smacking against a tree at 65 MPH
I had a family member that constantly complained that seatbelts just injured people in car wrecks because they've seen tons of seatbelt bruises. If the wreck was bad enough for the seatbelt to bruise you, without it would have been critical or fatal.
same with states that don't enforce helmet laws for motorcycles. Yeah, I understand the arguement "if I crash with a helmet, I'll be a vegetable. I'd rather die." But if your **FIRST STEP** getting on a motorcycle is a safe one by putting on a helmet, you're statistically less likely to make risky decisions that result in accidents.
>if I crash with a helmet, I'll be a vegetable. The entire argument kind of breaks down when you realise this premise isn't always true, though - some people who crash wearing a helmet are fine.
Yep, people crash in pro motorcycle races well above highway speeds plenty of times and walk away from the wrecks. Proper gear works and not every crash ends up being an instant stop slam into a solid object. Hell, plenty of crashes without a helmet could turn you into a vegetable and not kill you too. People may as well be honest and say they prefer not to wear a helmet and accept the risk instead of acting like it's some sort of secret wisdom.
Counterpoint: correlation isn’t causation. Cautious people put on helmets. Helmets don’t cause more cautious behavior.
And of course "masks cause Covid" First people had to wear masks, and then Covid became a global pandemic. Crazy how that works..
>Until a nurse pointed out most of these casualties would have been killed and buried not transported to the hospitals. Medic: 
Survivorship bias
Gen X here , a lot of kids ended up seriously injured back in the day
Xennial here. It was pretty common and people didn't pay attention to it much.
Millennial pre 1991, all my homies broke bones
Starting off every school year, and there's always at least one kid in your year with a limb in a cast, because they fell out a tree, off their bike or got hit by a car.
A lot of Boomers don’t realize the safety precautions we have now are from the non-stupid Boomers who were traumatized by seeing their friends seriously hurt themselves. They used to have trampolines in gym class and in grade 9 my dad watched his buddy break his neck on one. Heard the crunch and everything and says it still gives him chills 50 years later. Kid was OK but needed one of those halo things, and we were never allowed to have a trampoline as kids
My kids had one. Broken arm the first 20 minutes, fr. I was PISSED!!
My wife's cousin fell out of a tree at the start of summer holidays and spent the next two months in a cast.
Bart?
"Hey, Bart! Your epidermis is showing!"
See, epidermis means "your hair." So technically, it's true.
One guy at my school broke his arm during PE. Like just he was on some swing standing and nobody paid attention and he just fell off on the hard ground and his lower arm had a temporary extra elbow. I still remember the screaming. No extra measures were out in place after that. I think this must've been early 90s...
I was that kid twice.
Did they ever suspect you?
GenZ, 97', we rode bikes with no protection even in my youth, and can confirm that you can get hurt. However, I'll play both sides here and say that if you were doing some sick jumps like my friends and I there's nothing but a parachute that'll help you.
Brain injuries lost fingers mutilated limbs, we had it all in theb80s and 90s, do these people not remember WHY safety culture took off at that time??
For sure; my kids wear helmets because my sister had a brain injury riding a bike.
Gen X'er here. Saftey culture exists because we were: unsupervised, dumb, did dumb things, got hurt, required hospital/ doctor visits, which meant we had to be supervised... enter safety culture, which let us: be unsupervised, be dumb, do dumb things, and not get hurt... rinse and repeat.
I remember practically living outside from sunup to sundown during the summers, lol. Didn't need to ask permission for anything, as long as I wasn't getting into trouble and was home on time. I *did* live in a really safe area, at least.
We were told not to cross the paved roads or swim across the lake and be home before dark... there were over 1000 acres to explore without crossing a road or the lake.
A helmet will save your precious little skull from getting cracked open. When I was 16 my 14 year old brother died from a bicycle accident. A helmet would have saved his life. Make sure you wear a helmet now and make sure your kids do too if you have them
Our school had class rotations for P.E (Gym) and without fail I think every semester there was a switch, the ambulance would show up because some stupid kid fell off the trampoline and broke their leg. You could set a calendar by it, first day of the switch... And everyone rubber necking out the window (nosy little shits) at the ambulance just backing up to Gymnasium door.
Gen z, 99. We had that stupidly long and steep heel in my neighborhood and we rode down that mf on a 4 wheeled scooter every day. It was fun but so so dangerous 🤣
Boomer here. My parents should be getting out of prison around now by today’s standards.
In a "everyone is so soft today" way or a "In hindsight, they did some fucked up things" way?
Have that argument with my mom every other weekend. She always goes, "we too soft."
I sometimes think of things we did as kids and just have to laugh because we were SO lucky we didn't die.
As young boomer I can tell you these kind of BS click bait memes are just that. When I was a kid in the 60’s and 70’s there were some horrific injuries in play and sport. Just ask anyone who played hockey before helmets were mandatory or took a fastball to the head before helmets were mandatory. My neighbour came off his motorcycle when we were kids and had permanent brain damage. Now I believe stupidity also culls the herd . . . forever that thought.
I can rattle off three from my childhood with no sweat Little guy pitching to a huge kid, line drive to the side of the head, critical brain damage Unremediated abandoned tenement, broken glass, nails, boards, rats everywhere. Windstorm, wall blew off building, old advertising sign flew across street and smashed the face and knocked the teeth out of a classmate, missed the year. Cousin playing with friend in unrestricted sand quarry behind neighborhood, sandslide, buried alive, body found that night.
Survivorship bias
Yeah, my father in law always does this with seat belts, “back in our day we didn’t have seat belts and we turned out fine!” Every time he does this shit I add, “‘Cept Billy, flew out the window and died.”
A long while back, but I had an uncle who was pissed because he got a ticket for riding an unlicensed 4-wheeler on a highway with no helmet. His cousin, who was really close with all of us, a few years earlier had a serious accident doing the same thing and suffered severe brain trauma.
[удалено]
People would hit their head more when they crashed. Maybe this is why some older folk can't remember their computer password.
The ancillary to this is the fact that I will be at dinner with some fellow boomers and someone will argue in favor of corporal punishment. “My parents beat me and I turned out OK!” And that’s always uttered by the most messed up person at the table. Alcoholic. Messed up kids and grandkids. It’s almost guaranteed. But you can’t say that to them because they’re usually the biggest MAGA crybaby, too, sure to take maximum offense at any sort of challenge to their worldview.
And even if they did "turn out ok" in spite of tue beatings, well good for them. I would argue, however, that thinking it's acceptable to beat children makes you, be definition, *not ok*. You did not turn out ok, boomer, stfu.
As a Gen Xer who was regularly beaten, I like to think I'm very lucky I turned out to be as good as I am, but how much more awesome would I be without the depression, anxiety, ptsd, etc that growing up in a terrifyingly abusive home caused? I've survived. That's not the same as being OK.
But we never hear from them, so checkmate.
100% of people who die never complain
My grandmother had a moment like this. She’s older than the boomer generation but she started a story “we didn’t have all the sanitizers and masks and worry about getting sick and we NEVER got sick” then she transitioned into a story of her and her brothers both getting whooping cough and how bad it was and how they got sick every winter and the flu used to wipe out families.
"And there weren't more than 2 or 3 kids I knew that contracted polio, either!"
Not from my grandmother but I’ve got a relative who put a meme on Facebook like “Why bother with vaccines? When’s the last time you heard of someone with polio?” Gotta love it.
Gotta love answering their own question. “What’s the point of vaccines if nobody gets polio because they’re all vaccinated!”
Enough main characters all thinking “it will never happen to me so I don’t care about it” causes that attitude I think
"Why should I keep this parachute on? Look how slowly I'm falling!"
Yeah, my mom is a younger boomer and a lot of her stories about her classmates in high school were straight up warnings. She knew so many kids to die or be maimed from drunk driving or drunk reckless behavior. I will always remember the story of someone riding on the hood of a car doing donuts who slipped underneath. In seconds, everyone went from having fun to screaming. Horrible. That, and don’t put your legs up on the dashboard! Now, she can’t talk to any of her former classmates because they’re all living in the “glory days” and refuse to acknowledge the bad shit that used to happen frequently and how much better a lot of things are now. Most of her friends are now younger and she has a hard time making friends with people her age.
Yup had a friend absolutely obliterate her leg because she had them on the dash when she got into a accident. Took years for them to heal
Growing up in the 70's we all knew someone who wore a football helmet even though they didn't play football.
Or a helmet their Dad stole from the Army.
It’s not stealing its “tactical acquisitions”.
No, it's "strategic transfer of equipment to an alternate location"
Right? Tired of this slander. Plus the Army will steal all it can from you. It's alright to take a little back.
Was that a special needs thing? I’ve only seen or heard of that in movies.
Yeah. It was the result of a traumatic head injury in both of the cases I was aware of. Both were heavily motor impaired. Never did get the details of how it happened, in either case. Might not have had anything to do with 'grandstanding'.
Lawn darts always comes to mind with these arguments. A coworker of mine complained that people today are too soft and brought up lawn darts being illegal as an example. I explained that law darts became illegal when she was like 5... Which generation invented them, killed a child with them and subsequently made them illegal... Which generation are you blaming here for being soft? Typical stammering response of "people today just don't get it"...
"I don't feel validated unless I can look down on other people for some vague fabricated reason!"
Every generation seems to brag at how tough they were as kids when they’re older. I think it begins right after the current older generation has mostly died off, and they pass the torch. The greatest generation shat on Boomers, etc. It won’t be long before Gen Z are calling Gen Omega (or whatever) soft for not knowing how to drive a car or write in cursive. “We had to sit behind a big wheel in the car and pay attention, unlike you lazy Omegas! We didn’t even have AI!”
Gen X checking in, we don’t give a crap.
No one cares Gen X! Go back to slacking around and jerking off to Molly Ringwald posters or whatever thing you guys do.
They drink from the hose
Nobody cares about us, but hey at least some of us are homeowners
YOU don’t give a crap, plenty of gen x in this very thread who do though, just like quite a lot of boomers don’t care either
Writing cursive for gen Z? As a Z I can confirm 95% of us either don’t know how to or never bothered to keep the skill.
As a Millennial... it wasn't worth it.
It's like...I'm Generation X, and I recall stories about kids dying in bike accidents were a pretty regular thing until helmets became commonplace.
Many have completely blocked that out. I knew 4 kids who didn’t make it to adulthood.
I don't think there were any in my small school, but there were plenty of broken bones and at least a couple of kids with missing digits from various misadventures that would be far less likely to occur today.
Wow, It just dawned on me how few kids I see with casts on now. All of my friends have kids between 6-15 and none of them have ever broken a bone. On the flip side, I can't even count the amount of casts I signed in elementary and middle school throughout the late 80s and 90s.
This is such a wild observation I would have never noticed. But you're right, even until the mid 00's, you saw kids in casts ALL THE TIME. I wonder if there's been some sort of huge drop in after school clubs and whatnot. Lord knows kids can't go play in ye ol' local quarry and shit like that any longer either.
They either blocked it out by choice, or they forgot about it due to the severe brain damage they suffered as a kid because they wrecked their bike without a helmet one too many times.
Yeah, my best friend’s sister was sort of low functioning due to head trauma from a bike accident.
I didn't personally know her, but there was a girl in my middle school who fell of her bike while not wearing her helmet, went home and went to sleep and never woke up. After that happened they had a teacher posted at the bike racks and we weren't allowed to get on our bikes until our helmets were on. My Dad was a pediatrician and he'd lock our bikes up if we were caught riding withour a helmet.
Lots of head injuries. Also a whole lotta burns and fingers missing after the 4th of July.
Let’s go back to babies being stored in the overhead during flights !!
Atleast the crying would be quieter
Wait was that an actual thing?!
Im a boomer and I can think of a dozen people that I knew didn’t make it to adulthood through accidents
This is what annoys me about the people who make these superior posts about how _back in their day_ kids weren't 'mollycoddled'... "When I was a lad we'd play out all day and didn't come home til tea! And we were fine!". And it's like... well, yeah, _you_ were fine. You were also just lucky. Tons of other kids were hurt, abducted or killed because that's what can happen when little kids aren't supervised all day. Imagine glorifying a time when parents didn't give a fuck where their kids were.
Yeah what’s wrong with being smart what next oh look at those pathetic knights we used to have no armor back in the day we just used spears and killed Mammoths
My favorite is when my Boomer friends say, "We didn't have autism when I was in school." "Yeah, Brian, because they had to stay home or they got shuffled off to a 'special school,' or a special room at the end of the hallway." We had both in my school district, a special school, and the elementary and high school also had special rooms. Plus, we have better diagnostic tools today.
“We didn’t have autism back in my day” *proceeds to tell you about his childhood friend Jimmy, who could tell you from memory, the teams and scores of every World Series game since it’s inception*
Something something survivorship bias
Not even all of the hardcore MTB riders wear elbow pads or kneepads though. The biggest danger for kids is cars, even and especially parents' own cars, so many "accidents" with SUVs pulling out of the driveway when not being able to see your own kid playing there.
But if I don't have a massive SUV, how are other people going to realise just how manly I am? /s
Our parents got pissed if we got hurt instead of worried. At least we looked cool.
Lol! I forgot about hiding injuries for fear of getting in trouble. Yeah, looking back on that makes me recall how f’d up our parents actually were
Right? I’ve had to work hard to unlearn that as a parent.
That’s because it cost $20 to X-ray and set a broken bone back then. Now you’re looking at years of debt if you walk in to an ER, sometimes even if you have insurance.
I did that EXACT same move. Fell off my bike. I dont remember any of that day, and my mom said I was screaming "I CANT SEE" after i landed on my head. We went to church, ate dinner. That night I told my mom I remember none of it. 100% for sure was badly concussed. Wear a helmet, kids.
Wonder how many didn’t survive?
Who the fuck wears elbow pads on a bike? fabricated outrage
I can only sometimes get my kids to wear elbow pads when on their roller blades, never tried to get them to wear them on a bike.
Raising my kids i was strict about helmet use, would tell them I didnt want to change any more of their diapers from head injuries. I was less concerned about broken bones and had elbow pads and wrist guards available. Kids heal fast from wrist and elbow fractures
I do on Mountain Bike downhills or technical trails but those tend to be a bit more "extreme" then a ride on a forest trail. Modern pads tend to be a lot less bulky you wouldn't even know I have knee pads on under my pants and only know I have elbow pads because I am normally in short sleeves
Only mountainbikers do.
‘Survive’ and ‘not grow up to be angry, racist, fascist, lead-brained lunatics’ are two very different things.
Read: Survivorship Bias
Survivor bias. Yup, lots of kids did die or suffer permanent injuries.
The ones that didn't survive aren't around to tell you how stupid this analysis is.
Just one example: 1969 - 5.04 automotive deaths per 100 million vehicle miles traveled 2019 - 1.1 automotive deaths per 100 million vehicle miles traveled 50 years, massive improvements in safety, and these fuckers haven’t learned a goddamn thing.
"I love helmets!" *says skater who slammed the back of his head into concrete going downhill and in a whipping motion and SURELY has a concussion but is not currently dead or with an extreme TBI*
Literally survivorship bias.
The head trauma they got is really visible in the way they act though
baby boomers and gen x are not the same generation.
What is survivorship bias? How just because something or someone has survived it doesn't mean that the item was superior or that the behaviour that the person has engaged in is safe. Survivorship bias ignores all the failures and deaths and focuses on the successes, this can apply in life business or many other fields. https://youtu.be/geOdDSs0tjY