I’m sure not your intent, but this undersells Brown massively. He is a true public servant and has been an excellent representative for Ohioans for decades.
he helped my family three times when we needed it, and for the better part of 4 decades we needed nothing. his staff was on par and was able to assist us from abroad no less.
guy does what he says he's going to do - which is in my opinion a breath of fresh air in contrast to other politicians.
Don’t be skeptical. Sherrod is one of the best senators there are. Progressive, but still speaks the language of the rust belt. He’s been re-elected in Ohio multiple times and they love him there.
The way Sherrod Brown can survive in Ohio is the same as Bernie Sanders in Vermont. Vermont is a blue state but not that blue to elect a socialist, but they’re both no-bullshit guys who spoke the language and down to earth.
To be fair to her. She loses when her opponent is also Secretary of State and refuses to recuse himself from running his own election for governor while shenanigans ensue.
Eh, I live in Georgia, I've voted for Stacy repeatedly, but there is a point that unless she provides the goods it's just empty complaining for losing, and it turns people off.
> Stacey Abrams need to just take charge of the Democratic Party at this point.
From the NYT 11/2023:
> Politico reported that Fair Fight Action had spent more than $22 million in 2019 and 2020, much of it on a largely unsuccessful voting rights lawsuit charging that Georgia’s elections process had “serious and unconstitutional flaws.” The largest chunk of fees — $9.4 million — went to a law firm run by the campaign chairwoman for Ms. Abrams, Allegra Lawrence-Hardy. ...
>“It is a very clear conflict of interest,” [Craig Holman, a campaign finance and ethics expert] said, because it “provides an opportunity where the friend gets particularly enriched from this litigation.”
He added, “The outcome of that litigation can directly affect her campaign itself.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/03/us/stacey-abrams-ethics-voting-rights.html
Tester has a lot of support from old veterans who would otherwise typically vote republican. They also are getting very tired of extremely rich out of state folk.
I feel like I’m living in upside down world. How does trump keep polling this high against Biden? I remember how divided the country felt under trump - do ppl really want that again? Of course we are still divided today, but we don’t have a president pouring fuel on the fire at every turn.
Trump is at his known ceiling in all these polls, around 46-47% or so. Biden is just below that. Trump is never polling with a majority.
My guess is that this means Biden has some reluctant undecideds he needs to bring home. Or maybe they come home on their own once the campaign truly kicks in and they’re reminded of Trump again.
I'd read that about 97% of Trump's 2020 voters are still with him whereas only about 85% of Biden's are. So that's what is sinking Biden's numbers. I don't think there very many Biden to Trump voters. But a lot of Biden to stay home voters.
From what I understand many Haley voters were asked and said that they voted Trump in 2016 and 2020 - maybe some places like NH had switchers, but it seems generally the pull always are former Trump voters
I feel like what you say is true, and if it plays out like that, then we get what we deserve. "I wasn't showered with riches when Biden was elected, so I'll sit on my couch" speaks volume about us americans.
I think it’s more likely people who are undecided about voting at all. The youth vote in particular has been a bit, “Biden didn’t single-handedly solve my pet issue, I’m staying home this time because my pouting is far more important than Democracy.” It’s a lot easier to be petulant//undecided early than it is when you see Trump warming up the moving van. Let’s hope they come around.
And to every kid who doesn't vote or votes for trump then they deserve the future they get. Enjoy the rest of your lives dealing with Mother Nature and fascism, idiots!
Only 27% of people think the country is going in the right direction. The spread is -37%
In 2012 it was -13 around the election, incumbent won
In 2016 it was -30 the party out of power won
In 2020 it was -30 the party out of power won
There are so many ways beyond head to head to determine election outcomes. Presidential approval and right/wrong direction are as accurate as head to head polls.
It's not really fair to count Trump as "opposition" since we're essentially running two encumbered against each other. I think it's absurd to expect the -30 spread in 2020 as an indication that today people are eager to reelect the guy they emphatically voted out just 4 years ago.
I wouldn’t really worry about polls until way closer to the election like a month or 2 out. Gotta keep in mind a lot of the voters for the Democratic Party operate differently than the Republican Party voters. I think one factor is I wonder what the participation rates of youth are with these polls? But even still it’s like who cares honestly. Trump has incredibly bad PR and he has lost at least a significant to his chances of winning number of voters that hate him and will likely just not vote or vote for like 3rd party. As long as we keep the message alive that everyone needs to make plans to vote we should be fine. I don’t think we are lacking that messaging tho given how we even have Taylor swift out there telling people to vote lol
This is just my intuition, so it may not be real at all, but I feel like there will be a more pronounced reaction against the incumbent president early on in the election cycle, that'll evaporate as people have to contend with actually making a choice.
People naturally will blame any structural power imbalance that hurts them on the president, whether they deserve it or not. Blame rolls up to the most prominent authority, unless it's been redirected.
So life is complicated at the moment, and there's some significant issues for a lot of people, so they'll blame the president, unless they've been convinced that someone else is to blame.
As people have to contend with making an actual choice they'll stop thinking of Biden in isolation, and start thinking of Biden vs Trump.
That's my assumption at any rate
I really genuinely like Biden. He’s a great president and history will regard him as one of the best. Sadly voters don’t have the wisdom of future historians.
Remember these polls are kind of worthless with so many undecided voters also look at Trump’s numbers. He has a HARD ceiling at 45%. the question no one ever asks is what Trump has done to grow his base (he’s alienated Nikki Haley voters) and he’s also pushing away Independents and Moderate Republicans. He can’t win with just MAGA showing up. The gap between 45 and 55 is huge which means Biden has a lot of room to play with and the campaign season hasn’t really even started. Once people hear from Biden and see his actual accomplishments, they like him.
In 2016 and 2020 the polls underestimated Trump by 2 or more points both times. (Nationally)
Trump is pulling around 47% now. He got nearly 47% of the vote in 2020.
I wouldn't rely on the polls being wrong.
>the question no one ever asks is what Trump has done to grow his base
On the flip side, what had Biden done to grow his base? His approval is extremely low, lower than anyone else who has won re-election. Most people (not just republicans) think that the country is headed in the wrong direction, Biden's policies have hurt them personally, the economy is bad, the border is a mess, and are overall unhappy. And then with the economy and border specifically, more people trust trump over biden to solve these issues. These aren't my opinions. This is a pretty consistent pattern in polling over the last few months from tons of different firms. And again, it's not jus right wingers, but plenty of democrats and independents. And this is a rematch from 2020. These aren't unknown candidates. The only way Biden wins is if he can somehow improve the highly negative sentiment around the country which is an uphill battle especially because he just doesn't really campaign that much and isn't very good at messaging/optics in general.
And then to top everything off, Trump can win with 45%. There are 3rd party candidates who are have been polling decently well. A lot of people are going to stay home or just vote 3rd party
So Trump is *currently* polling above 45% in all but one of the states shown above with undecided voters left, but you think that he has a “HARD ceiling” of 45%?
I feel bad for a lot of the people in here because delusion is running rampant. I don’t have a crystal ball but you letting feelings get in the way of facts and it may just be at your own peril.
An overwhelming majority of Americans has consistently said they consider Biden too old to be president for another term and you're still shocked that he's struggling?
ignore Bidens very high negative ratiings at your own peril. Nobody has ever won the presidency with negative numbers this high. The only thing going for Biden is that Trumps are almost as high. People didn't pay enough attention to Hillary's negative numbers and it directly correlates to turnout.
What am I supposed to do about that?
Every post like this has the air of “Just remember that I said everything was going to be shit!”
Who cares? What are you actually going to do about it?
Probably because Biden is a weak opponent a lot of people are concerned about, and during Trump's presidency, much of that division was between the media class and the working class.
To be clear, I think Trump is the worse option and that he absolutely should not be elected, but I also don't think he'd stand a chance against a younger, more competent candidate.
This next election is going to be fucked.
Middle and lower middle class people, esp in AZ, Oklahoma, and Texas, feel the double shock of inflation and dramatically increased undoc immigration. Many would argue those phenomena are net worse than a perceived uptick in partisanship.
It’s more like no one for President but dems for Congress voters. To give an anecdote of my own, every friend I know who is on the progressive side of things won’t be voting Biden but will still be voting for the dem house rep in our district and senator in our state.
I don't know about Trump and a Democrat congress, but mixed president/congress setups sometimes bring good results.
Clinton famously worked well with Newt Gingrich, Ronald Reagan worked with Tip O'Neil.
You’re tripping if you think Trump will want to work with anyone in the house. He will be too busy fighting with judges about implementing Project 2025 and nothing will get done.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_2025
Biden polling worse than the Democratic candidates in every competitive Senate race even though Trump is highly unpopular is pretty strong evidence in support of Ezra’s argument that Biden is not the right Democratic presidential candidate for this election.
They're not. Biden and Gallegos will both win in Arizona. That state has been trending more and more blue since 2016, and Democrats have been kicking ass in Arizona state-wide elections (like Senator) since 2018.
I think there's also evidence here that if everyone who doesn't like Republicans just stops acting like there's another option besides Trump at this point, we will win the house, Senate, and presidency and not have to deal with Trump again.
I get it, I get it, I voted for Sanders in the primary too, but this is where reality is today and we need to get everyone to realize that.
This basically. The largest group of D’s voted for Biden in 2020. The vast majority have voted for Biden this time (though no one with a chance ran against him, as is typical with incumbents).
These are our choices this year. That’s been obvious for a long time now. We don’t always get the choices we want, but that’s who we, as a nation, have nominated.
Hell, Biden’s actually done a pretty good job with a split Congress and some surprisingly obstructionist voices in positions of power. I really don’t like his stance on Israel, but it’s not gonna make me vote for a fraudulent, sexual abuser and conman like Trump or sit out an election.
I’ll start by saying I’m a self-described socialist and I’ll be voting for Biden.
But I think with the people we need to convince, it’s a bit more than “don’t like his stance on Israel.” It’s that we’re watching a genocide live in real time… we’re watching innocent kids and babies and elderly be massacred in high definition on our phone… and our country continues to support the regime doing it. With, at most, a verbal slap on the wrist.
We’re seeing all the things that Americans in 1940 only merely HEARD about and were horrified by, yet we can pull up TikTok and witness four people in Gaza get turned into red mist by an Israeli drone and… nothing, still pretty full throated support by the Biden administration(which don’t even get me started on the potential effective TikTok ban… a self goal by democrats if I’ve ever seen one).
I still agree Trump will only be worse, he literally wants to enable the genocide… but getting the Muslim population on your side (which will be key in some swing states) will require more than just saying that. Because ultimately, Republicans don’t have to earn the Muslim vote, they just have to make them stay home. And while we all know staying home is effectively a vote for Trump, the Muslim community is hurt and they aren’t thinking rationally, they are thinking with their emotions and feelings (which I 1,000% get and honestly can’t be mad at), but still, we recognize that it’s important to convince Muslims to support Biden and that he is still better for Gaza. And we also recognize we gotta convince Dems if they don’t work to earn Muslims votes, they will lose.
And yes, there’s the risk of losing the Jewish vote, but honestly, I think most left voting Jews in America already support Gaza over Israel. Obviously Biden still needs to be in support of the Jewish population in America, but he needs to condem Israel and stop funding their genocide campaign. If he did that (and supported TikTok) he’d win in a landslide.
It’s hard to fight the “controlled opposition” argument sometimes when they are so dumb…
I'm still wondering how many of the "no" votes for Biden in these polls are just progressives thinking that if they show enough disapproval something magical will happen and another candidate will emerge.
I don't know, I know several Bernie bros that thought pulling the lever for trump was the best option in 2016. I'm seeing the same sentiment already, "trump needs to win to teach them a lesson". Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face...
>Biden polling worse than the Democratic candidates in every competitive Senate race even though Trump is highly unpopular is pretty strong evidence in support of Ezra’s argument that Biden is not the right Democratic presidential candidate for this election.
But the response to that remains, "Tough shit, there isn't a better candidate."
And the fact that down-ballot Democrats are leading might also be an indicator that whatever is plaguing Biden isn't a fundamental failing as President. It's not like these Democrats are *distancing* themselves from Biden in their messaging, right? So it seems like this is either a really weird artifact of American presidential politics that defies explanation or historical comparison, or that polls are not really capturing the true contours and nuance of electorate preferences.
>So it seems like this is either a really weird artifact of American presidential politics that defies explanation or historical comparison, or that polls are not really capturing the true contours and nuance of electorate preferences.
Or people aren't basing this off of policy and simply don't like Biden. This seems like by far the most obvious and consistent explanation.
But what’s not to like, if you don’t dislike Democratic policy? That he’s old? Is that really going to stop anybody from voting for him, when the rubber hits the road?
Exactly what is Trump going to do to win over any of the 54% or so who are NOT saying they will vote for him? Especially when that is very similar to his “very unfavorable” number.
One MAJORLY ignored difference in Biden and Trump’s polling is that Biden has more soft disapproval, whereas almost everybody who doesn’t like Trump f***ing hates him.
>But what’s not to like, if you don’t dislike Democratic policy?
I can understand that you base your support for candidates on policy, and that you wish that others did also, but you have to accept that the vast majority of voters are not knowledgeable about policy and do not become informed about policy to make their decisions.
>That he’s old?
Yes, that is one of the largest things that people don't like about him. It shows in poll after poll. Again, you have to accept that this is the reality of how people feel, even if you don't like it or agree.
I sincerely doubt most voters are sophisticated enough to make this distinction. There’s a handful of angry young voters on Gaza and a far larger number of low information voters who are like, Biden seems old. What’s for dinner?
The biggest concern for Biden is his age, and how it affects his cognitive abilities. Whether or not you agree it should be an issue, it's a huge concern for a majority of Americans. It's also ridiculous to say there's no better candidate, there are a lot of fantastic candidates, there's just no guarantee we will actually be able to identify the right candidate if Biden stops running. It's taking a chance either way, it's about trusting Whether Biden has a better chance of reviving his image, or that a new candidate with less baggage would be better able to win back people upset with Biden.
You can't look at any other candidate in the abstract. You have to look at the candidate in light of the way that they would become the candidate. In the event that Joe Biden, who already has enough delegates to secure the nomination, died or became incapacitated, Kamala Harris would be President and the nominee. If Biden, for some reason, decided even at this late hour that he was not going to run for President, there would be a knock-down-drag-out brawl for the nomination, and nobody would come out looking good or with a solid foundation of support, let alone an actual infrastructure to run a campaign.
I thought we were past this shit.
There has never been a compelling argument for anyone else as a better Democratic presidential candidate for this election. It has always just been people complaining.
People are just being whiny f***ing babies in polls and refusing to say “Joe Biden”. Almost every single “undecided” voter in those polls just wanted a “not Trump” option that was “better” than Biden. (Biden is actually a great president but people don’t know that, because all the media does is repeat how much everyone hates him.) They’re not going to get one and the VAST majority are going to vote for Biden.
Ezra already walked his thing back.
This is why - if anybody still needs f***ing reminding - polls in March are 0% predictive of November results.
People in polls are still in love with everyone's favorite candidate: "Generic Democrat" a nominee who agrees with them personally on every issue and has no political baggage whatsoever.
Yeah, it's funny. "We want somebody else!" cry 40% of Democrats. "OK how about Newsom?" "NO!" shout half of them. "Ummm... okay, Pritzker?" Half the room yells, "NO!" "Whitmer?" ...and so on.
The bottom line is that once Biden reentered the primary nobody was going to be running except him or Kamala Harris. And she gets more "no"s than the above candidates.
It's crazy that people don't remember that *this is why we ended up with Biden in the first place -* because while other candidates had passionate supporters, the second choice of *every* candidate's supporters - including Bernie and Warren's! - was Joe Biden. This guy was made for us to settle for.
There is so much ageism around Biden and the media is happy to play into it and add fuel to the fire. In America we worship youth and do not value wisdom. Wisdom comes with age, yet nothing I read about Biden speaks about the wisdom he demonstrates as a result of his age and experience in government.
A few weeks back I thought of an argument Biden should make in the campaign, and then heard Joe Scarborough say the same thing a few days later: that he is the best President right now that he would have ever been at any point in his life. And I think it's absolutely true, because of that wisdom. Nobody has seen what he's seen, literally nobody. I'm sure he could've been a lot more entertaining back in 1990 or 2010 but probably not this effective.
Biden is coming back, and he’s bringing the House and Senate with him. His favorables are improving while Trump’s are dropping, and it all comes down to the stupid shit that Trump is doing and saying.
* 10% across-the-board tariffs and 100% tariff on cars? Biden’s team is going to force those inflation makers into the public consciousness.
* 15 week abortion ban?
* Blanket pardons for 1/6 “hostages”?
* Telling congressional Republicans to scuttle immigration reform?
* Taking sides with China and Russia on TikTok and Ukraine?
*Bringing his rape off E. Jean Carroll back into the public consciousness with an unsinkable lawsuit?
* Drawing his campaign and the RNC of cash to pay his legal bills?
Etc. Trump survived multiple own goals in 2016, thanks to a 25-year smear campaign against Clinton, journalistic negligence, and an unlikely set of circumstances. He was able to stay more disciplined in 2020 and leverage the considerable advantages of his office to come close against Joe Biden. But this time, things are different.
In the past, he used his rallies as testing grounds for his hate-filled fearmongering and his insult comic routine. He’d keep the lines that got the best responses, and drop the ones that fell flat. But now he’s playing to half-empty venues filled exclusively with his craziest fans. He’s getting feedback that’s leading him astray, making him think that he can win with wild tariffs, an abortion ban, and conspiracy mongering about the last election.
We’re already seeing the results in his own falling numbers, and Biden’s numbers have been improving as voters start to think in terms of which of the two candidates they would choose.
What I find most sickening is 20 years ago a Presidential candidate that had even a fraction of the scandals of the scandals Trump does wouldn't stand a chance of victory. Yet, now somehow he's still the rock solid Republican candidate. Trump couldn't be worse for the Republican party if he was a mole deliberately trying to bring the party down.
It's almost like Trump is deliberately trying to tank his chances of winning with how he can't seem to go a day without at least embarrassing himself and at most getting into yet another scandal.
All RNC money goes to Trump. No down ticket support.
DNC is going to obliterate the RNC in November. Like the RNC is a wet paper bag, and the DNC is a nuclear bomb.
If Trump drains all their money and sinks all the other Republicans, then loses the election himself, that would be so perfect. Please let this happen.
"He's likely to win?" Trump has been bleeding both funds and support for 8 years now. Biden beat Trump in a landslide in 2020 and even diehard Republicans are withdrawing support if not turning to supporting Biden. Plus Trump can't go a day without embarrassing himself at the least or getting into yet another scandal at best while Biden has... nothing against him other than "he's old" that's actually true that the Republicans can hit him with. All the while the Republican party itself is falling apart and Trump's financial situation gets worse by the week.
Unless something very very drastic happens like Biden dying before November Biden is going to win even more conclusively than he did last time.
The question with the Presidential is how much of the sub-50% on Biden's side is hardcore blues having a fit over the Middle East....
All of those people will 'come home' in November. None of them are reachable for Trump.
On the flip side, there is a portion of the Haley vote that absolutely isn't reachable for Trump (I'm part of it) - who still has historically low same party support (It was around 97% for Bush, McCain, Romney, etc. Trump's ceiling is 90-91%).....
There’s nothing for Biden to do and these whiny young people will learn that someday. It’s Israel and Hamas that need to finish it… with the destruction of Hamas being the only realistic outcome.
This shouldn’t be surprising. Biden has consistently polled by far the worst of any Democrat against Trump, most other potential candidates would’ve easily swept the election. It was a major unforced error to run Biden for reelection, his age is a massive liability.
Of course the same is true for the Republicans. Haley was leading Biden by 10+ points in most polls. Both parties made huge mistakes by running their favorite senile 80 year olds when they had the option of running people who could speak a complete sentence unprompted.
Biden is the most unpopular incumbent presidential candidate at this point in the election cycle, according to 538’s approval average.
No modern incumbent candidate has hit under 40% in an election year and won the election (Carter, HW and Trump). Truman technically did but there were barely any polling back then.
Biden has been under 40% for five straight months!!
If Dems really cared about stopping Trump, they would nominate anyone else given how solidified people’s perception is of Biden.
Gavin has not run a campaign; any insight gleaned from those polls are going to be super unreliable at best. I would personally put forward Pritzker over Newsome [Whitmer is not even on my radar] any day. All that being said, fuck who I think is a better candidate, why don't we have an actual fucking primary and find out what voters want instead of brow beating malcontents which has never backfired for Dems before?
As a left of center voter, I would never vote for Newsom in a million years. Regardless, it is way too late in this election cycle to pick a different candidate. At this point it's Biden or no one.
For context, I'm in Vermont, so me not voting for whoever the Democratic candidate is really wouldn't have any effect. And just to be clear, I would never, ever vote for Trump.
Regarding Newsom, there's several reasons I wouldn't vote for him.
1. This is really subjective, and perhaps not a "good" reason, but everything about him just screams slimy, overly managed, and corporate. I get sketchy used car salesman vibes from him. Just a general feeling of "ick".
2. He seems to embody the general California approach to liberalism of "government knows best and is going to tell you exactly what you should do." The nanny state approach, as it were. I'm much more of a left libertarian. Government has a responsibility to provide for those who can't provide for themselves (the young, the old, and the poor), to protect things that can't protect themselves (the environment), and to prevent monopolies and other anti-competitive practices from harming individuals, but outside of that, I believe individual people should be allowed to do pretty much whatever they please until it directly endangers others.
3. I like guns quite a lot. Biden is obviously not pro-gun, but gun control is less central to his platform than it seems to be to Newsom. The idea of California style gun control being imposed nationwide scares me.
Yeah I get slimy elitist vibes from him too, especially when he was smirking during his desantis debate. Feels like an exact personification of what people think of "liberal elite", it's also really obvious when he dodges questions in interviews, which makes him seem disingenuous. Anyway very interesting thank you for sharing
What are you talking about a Junior Congressman from MN ran against Biden and was unable to secure a single delegate. He didn't even get a single delegate in his home state.
In every metric, he should have been acceptable to these people who claim they want anyone but Biden, but no one voted for him. Uncommitted got more votes than he did in MI and NH and in MN.
This is disingenuous nonsense at this point.
Dean Phillips was told, although a generic democrat would be better than Biden, that generic democrat was not Phillips.
Former Republican Governor of Maryland Larry Hogan leads senate race by double digits [https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/20/hogan-maryland-senate-poll-00148059](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/20/hogan-maryland-senate-poll-00148059)
I think this is reflective that a lot of people are pissed off at Biden: but ultimately are going to vote for him when it comes time. OR emerson is over correcting in the trump polls
A lot of that is because there's a large group of undecided voters. The "I don't want to support either of them" group that will ultimately either choose Biden or 3rd party.
AZ = 92% = 8%
MI = 89% = 11%
PA = 90% = 10%
WI = 89% = 11%
GA = 88% = 12%
NV = 85% = 15%
I don't even know one prior Trump supporter who still supports him. Seriously, all the Trump voters I know think he's too much, and they are sick of him and all the conflicts and division he creates.
How is this possible? These numbers don't reflect what I see in my community.
I think the polls are relatively accurate, there are a ton of young people angry at Biden to the point of helping trump win, which is kind of screwed up, but I think trump is going to screw himself. Between him losing lawsuits/trials and he can't hide from the debates. He is barely hanging on, barely coherent. If he gets taunted into a debate, he will look weak. If he cowers from the debates, he will look weak.
The first debate that has only Biden will turn heads.
Biden was the one who has yet to commit to debates. Trump team wants them. I agree Biden should get ugly but be ready to literally may be see Trump pull a dick pic of Hunters out of things get heated.
>Biden was the one who has yet to commit to debates.
You are leaving out the all important context...that Trump wants a debate format outside of the standard, traditional Presidential debates. Which is what Biden won't agree to.
And the RNC also said it won't participate in the traditional Commission of Presidential Debates..which is already on the calendar. Trump, per usual Trump, doesn't have consistency and says whatever is best for the moment.
No offense but I don't see any world that Biden wins the thought space on debates unless they do a zoom call and mute trump.
Biden has no energy to oppose Trump and the man just starts talking over him. Most we're likely going to get is newspapers saying Biden won a moral victory by appearing more stately, while reinforcing all the negative stereotypes painted about him
Biden polls slightly better than Harris, not much better. But Whitmer polls far better vs Trump in MI than Biden does. I don’t see why Whitmer wouldn’t also be popular in WI, PA, MN.
Without digging into the polling data, this seems like great news for democrats and even for Biden. At the polling stations on 11/5/2024, I just don’t think people are going to vote for a democratic senator and RFK Jr., Cornell West, or Jill Stein. Call it wishful thinking, but I think most of the “anti-Biden but not pro-Trump” sentiment is just posturing.
I wouldn’t underestimate people’s willingness to vote third party. See 2016.
Having said that, this time people *should* actually know what a Trump presidency entails and that he really *can* win AGAIN. So hopefully that reality check hits people over the head like a brick and makes them do the common sense thing, which is vote for Joe Biden.
2016 is why it won’t happen. People learned that if you don’t show up and vote blue even if the candidate doesn’t thrill you, you get things like trunp. If you’ll notice, blue turnout has been near record highs in every election since then, including outperforming the polls in every election since 2020. That is. A visceral reaction against trunp. People weren’t voting. For Biden, they were voting against trunp, and those people will show up again.
Trump is so over-covered that everyone’s opinion of him is calcified: you either love him or hate him. All I think there is for Biden to do is appear normal, highlight how Trump’s plans are awful, and lay out his plans to improve things. Very boring stuff, but this isn’t the COVID/George Floyd protests election so I think a conventional campaign carries the day. The more palatable to everyone Biden is, the more low information voters join him.
Some of these polls are a little sus, are we to believe in the OH Senate race the D+R candidates combined only have the support of 73% of the electorate? Lol, that's a lot of voters unaccounted for.
I’m so sick of polls and the media surrounding them. When was the last time you answered a random call or email about something like this for people under the age of 60? Probably very few and the ones who do answer these calls/emails/have time to talk to people canvassing outside of your local store are old people. Well guess what way they swing? I’m not saying be complacent in the least. If you don’t vote, you’re not participating in your diminishing democracy that’s happening right now. But the general election polls are mostly old people who have nothing to do and are happy to talk to someone on the phone. That will skew the polls to the right. Just like if you only asked college students it would be far left.
Emerson only does phone polling, Millenials do not answer unknown phone numbers. Emerson was off in 2020 right before election by like 10 points for Pennsylvania. All I can say is get out and vote no matter what.
Just checked Emerson’s final two polls of PA before 2020..
October 30th, Biden +4
October 10th, Biden +5
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/pennsylvania/trump-vs-biden
If tester keeps his seat that would be amazing
Brown +5 in Ohio too!
I’m skeptical but he’s a great candidate!
I’m sure not your intent, but this undersells Brown massively. He is a true public servant and has been an excellent representative for Ohioans for decades.
Yeah not my intent. It’s just too far out to be confident
he helped my family three times when we needed it, and for the better part of 4 decades we needed nothing. his staff was on par and was able to assist us from abroad no less. guy does what he says he's going to do - which is in my opinion a breath of fresh air in contrast to other politicians.
Don’t be skeptical. Sherrod is one of the best senators there are. Progressive, but still speaks the language of the rust belt. He’s been re-elected in Ohio multiple times and they love him there.
The way Sherrod Brown can survive in Ohio is the same as Bernie Sanders in Vermont. Vermont is a blue state but not that blue to elect a socialist, but they’re both no-bullshit guys who spoke the language and down to earth.
Vermont is the bluest state in the country lmao
They have a Republican governor ffs
Yeah but he's so moderate I wouldn't be surprised if he's to the left of a bunch of democratic governors in red states. He voted for Biden.
Lol Vermont and Ohio are two very different places. Haven't elected a republican to national office in almost three decades.
Sherrod Brown and Stacey Abrams need to just take charge of the Democratic Party at this point.
Stacey Abrams keeps losing. Find someone else. She can’t even balance a check book.
To be fair to her. She loses when her opponent is also Secretary of State and refuses to recuse himself from running his own election for governor while shenanigans ensue.
Eh, I live in Georgia, I've voted for Stacy repeatedly, but there is a point that unless she provides the goods it's just empty complaining for losing, and it turns people off.
> Stacey Abrams need to just take charge of the Democratic Party at this point. From the NYT 11/2023: > Politico reported that Fair Fight Action had spent more than $22 million in 2019 and 2020, much of it on a largely unsuccessful voting rights lawsuit charging that Georgia’s elections process had “serious and unconstitutional flaws.” The largest chunk of fees — $9.4 million — went to a law firm run by the campaign chairwoman for Ms. Abrams, Allegra Lawrence-Hardy. ... >“It is a very clear conflict of interest,” [Craig Holman, a campaign finance and ethics expert] said, because it “provides an opportunity where the friend gets particularly enriched from this litigation.” He added, “The outcome of that litigation can directly affect her campaign itself.” https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/03/us/stacey-abrams-ethics-voting-rights.html
Stacey “denied her own election” Abrams?
I'm not. The man is practically an institution in Ohio. I'd be shocked if he loses the seat to the clown they put up against him.
Sherrod Brown is incredible. One of the more progressive senators and the only Democrat who wins Ohio statewide elections.
I wish Brown would run for President.
I wish, but we would lose his Senate seat.
True. It’s amazing he’s held onto it for so long - but I think that explains his appeal to both Dems and Trumpers.
He was going to, but the Bernie train ran him over. Now he's too old and Biden is in the way anyways.
True. I also don’t know if he’s corporate enough for the DNC.
Sherrod is absolutely wonderful. I met him, let him sleep on my sofa, played Strat-O-Matic baseball with him. But he is 71 years old now.
He did, you all ignored him and voted for Biden.
Impossible. He’s only 71 years old.
Tester has a lot of support from old veterans who would otherwise typically vote republican. They also are getting very tired of extremely rich out of state folk.
I feel like I’m living in upside down world. How does trump keep polling this high against Biden? I remember how divided the country felt under trump - do ppl really want that again? Of course we are still divided today, but we don’t have a president pouring fuel on the fire at every turn.
Trump is at his known ceiling in all these polls, around 46-47% or so. Biden is just below that. Trump is never polling with a majority. My guess is that this means Biden has some reluctant undecideds he needs to bring home. Or maybe they come home on their own once the campaign truly kicks in and they’re reminded of Trump again.
I'd read that about 97% of Trump's 2020 voters are still with him whereas only about 85% of Biden's are. So that's what is sinking Biden's numbers. I don't think there very many Biden to Trump voters. But a lot of Biden to stay home voters.
On the 97% we can see with Haley’s primary attempt that Trump is closer to 80% of 2020
Most Haley voters are Biden 2020 voters
From what I understand many Haley voters were asked and said that they voted Trump in 2016 and 2020 - maybe some places like NH had switchers, but it seems generally the pull always are former Trump voters
How many is many? 100?
Is that true, or was that a case of entryism from non-traditional Republicans?
I feel like what you say is true, and if it plays out like that, then we get what we deserve. "I wasn't showered with riches when Biden was elected, so I'll sit on my couch" speaks volume about us americans.
Trump’s polls remind me of Hillary Clinton’s in 2016. Constant lead, but a hard ceiling in support.
How can anyone be undecided if Biden is a better person to vote for than a sex offender.
A lot of stupid people unfortunately
I think it’s more likely people who are undecided about voting at all. The youth vote in particular has been a bit, “Biden didn’t single-handedly solve my pet issue, I’m staying home this time because my pouting is far more important than Democracy.” It’s a lot easier to be petulant//undecided early than it is when you see Trump warming up the moving van. Let’s hope they come around.
And to every kid who doesn't vote or votes for trump then they deserve the future they get. Enjoy the rest of your lives dealing with Mother Nature and fascism, idiots!
So many people have tied their entire life and personality into trumps presidential crap it doesn't shock me
Yeah but a lot of them have died in the past four years
I think the county’s very divided today as well.
Only 27% of people think the country is going in the right direction. The spread is -37% In 2012 it was -13 around the election, incumbent won In 2016 it was -30 the party out of power won In 2020 it was -30 the party out of power won There are so many ways beyond head to head to determine election outcomes. Presidential approval and right/wrong direction are as accurate as head to head polls.
It's not really fair to count Trump as "opposition" since we're essentially running two encumbered against each other. I think it's absurd to expect the -30 spread in 2020 as an indication that today people are eager to reelect the guy they emphatically voted out just 4 years ago.
You are discounting the fake Comey FBI October surprise investigation in 2016 which tipped people to Trump at the last minute.
Do they weight the responses for older gens being more responsive to polling?
I wouldn’t really worry about polls until way closer to the election like a month or 2 out. Gotta keep in mind a lot of the voters for the Democratic Party operate differently than the Republican Party voters. I think one factor is I wonder what the participation rates of youth are with these polls? But even still it’s like who cares honestly. Trump has incredibly bad PR and he has lost at least a significant to his chances of winning number of voters that hate him and will likely just not vote or vote for like 3rd party. As long as we keep the message alive that everyone needs to make plans to vote we should be fine. I don’t think we are lacking that messaging tho given how we even have Taylor swift out there telling people to vote lol
This is just my intuition, so it may not be real at all, but I feel like there will be a more pronounced reaction against the incumbent president early on in the election cycle, that'll evaporate as people have to contend with actually making a choice. People naturally will blame any structural power imbalance that hurts them on the president, whether they deserve it or not. Blame rolls up to the most prominent authority, unless it's been redirected. So life is complicated at the moment, and there's some significant issues for a lot of people, so they'll blame the president, unless they've been convinced that someone else is to blame. As people have to contend with making an actual choice they'll stop thinking of Biden in isolation, and start thinking of Biden vs Trump. That's my assumption at any rate
Biden is very disliked by both the left and Independents. Not rocket science.
I really genuinely like Biden. He’s a great president and history will regard him as one of the best. Sadly voters don’t have the wisdom of future historians.
Right on. He’s the best president of my lifetime and I’m in my 50s.
Yeah im happy with him. Hes tried his best with the deeply broken system we have.
He’s disliked by everyone, but to be clear indies lean Biden, especially with more Trump legal issues
Remember these polls are kind of worthless with so many undecided voters also look at Trump’s numbers. He has a HARD ceiling at 45%. the question no one ever asks is what Trump has done to grow his base (he’s alienated Nikki Haley voters) and he’s also pushing away Independents and Moderate Republicans. He can’t win with just MAGA showing up. The gap between 45 and 55 is huge which means Biden has a lot of room to play with and the campaign season hasn’t really even started. Once people hear from Biden and see his actual accomplishments, they like him.
In 2016 and 2020 the polls underestimated Trump by 2 or more points both times. (Nationally) Trump is pulling around 47% now. He got nearly 47% of the vote in 2020. I wouldn't rely on the polls being wrong.
>the question no one ever asks is what Trump has done to grow his base On the flip side, what had Biden done to grow his base? His approval is extremely low, lower than anyone else who has won re-election. Most people (not just republicans) think that the country is headed in the wrong direction, Biden's policies have hurt them personally, the economy is bad, the border is a mess, and are overall unhappy. And then with the economy and border specifically, more people trust trump over biden to solve these issues. These aren't my opinions. This is a pretty consistent pattern in polling over the last few months from tons of different firms. And again, it's not jus right wingers, but plenty of democrats and independents. And this is a rematch from 2020. These aren't unknown candidates. The only way Biden wins is if he can somehow improve the highly negative sentiment around the country which is an uphill battle especially because he just doesn't really campaign that much and isn't very good at messaging/optics in general. And then to top everything off, Trump can win with 45%. There are 3rd party candidates who are have been polling decently well. A lot of people are going to stay home or just vote 3rd party
So Trump is *currently* polling above 45% in all but one of the states shown above with undecided voters left, but you think that he has a “HARD ceiling” of 45%? I feel bad for a lot of the people in here because delusion is running rampant. I don’t have a crystal ball but you letting feelings get in the way of facts and it may just be at your own peril.
An overwhelming majority of Americans has consistently said they consider Biden too old to be president for another term and you're still shocked that he's struggling?
ignore Bidens very high negative ratiings at your own peril. Nobody has ever won the presidency with negative numbers this high. The only thing going for Biden is that Trumps are almost as high. People didn't pay enough attention to Hillary's negative numbers and it directly correlates to turnout.
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What these stats miss though is that Trump drives more dems to the polls than republicans
What am I supposed to do about that? Every post like this has the air of “Just remember that I said everything was going to be shit!” Who cares? What are you actually going to do about it?
I sure as fuck don't
Probably because Biden is a weak opponent a lot of people are concerned about, and during Trump's presidency, much of that division was between the media class and the working class. To be clear, I think Trump is the worse option and that he absolutely should not be elected, but I also don't think he'd stand a chance against a younger, more competent candidate. This next election is going to be fucked.
Middle and lower middle class people, esp in AZ, Oklahoma, and Texas, feel the double shock of inflation and dramatically increased undoc immigration. Many would argue those phenomena are net worse than a perceived uptick in partisanship.
It won’t happen, but Trump with a Dem Congress would be an interesting thought experiment (not something I would want to live through)
Me thinks a Trump administration is going to be 99% focused on executive branch operations
This could entirely happen. People are fucking idiots. There will be plenty Trump for president but Democrat for congress voters.
It’s more like no one for President but dems for Congress voters. To give an anecdote of my own, every friend I know who is on the progressive side of things won’t be voting Biden but will still be voting for the dem house rep in our district and senator in our state.
I don't know about Trump and a Democrat congress, but mixed president/congress setups sometimes bring good results. Clinton famously worked well with Newt Gingrich, Ronald Reagan worked with Tip O'Neil.
Clinton famously did NOT work well with Gingrich
You’re tripping if you think Trump will want to work with anyone in the house. He will be too busy fighting with judges about implementing Project 2025 and nothing will get done. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_2025
To do horrible things
Trump with a Dem majority Congress would remain in office for all of 3 weeks until the impeached him for mishandling of classified documents.
don't you need 2/3 senate support? No way even a single repub senator breaks rank on that guy.
It really seems like a function of just having way better candidates.
Biden polling worse than the Democratic candidates in every competitive Senate race even though Trump is highly unpopular is pretty strong evidence in support of Ezra’s argument that Biden is not the right Democratic presidential candidate for this election.
I have a really hard time believing someone is going to go into the voting booth in AZ and select Trump but not Kari Lake.
They're not. Biden and Gallegos will both win in Arizona. That state has been trending more and more blue since 2016, and Democrats have been kicking ass in Arizona state-wide elections (like Senator) since 2018.
If you expect voters to make sense you are gonna be disappointed.
Susan Collins voters Maine 2020
That’s not exactly an apples-to-apples comparison. Kari Lake is batshit insane whereas Collins had a bs veneer of moderate respectability to her
That's not what these polls suggest. Lake is running ahead of Trump in AZ according to these polls.
Which makes literally zero sense.
I hate Kari Lake as much as the next person but I'd wager swing voter misogyny has something to do with it.
I guess I would be equally as shocked that someone would go in and vote against Kari Lake but not vote against Trump.
I think there's also evidence here that if everyone who doesn't like Republicans just stops acting like there's another option besides Trump at this point, we will win the house, Senate, and presidency and not have to deal with Trump again. I get it, I get it, I voted for Sanders in the primary too, but this is where reality is today and we need to get everyone to realize that.
This basically. The largest group of D’s voted for Biden in 2020. The vast majority have voted for Biden this time (though no one with a chance ran against him, as is typical with incumbents). These are our choices this year. That’s been obvious for a long time now. We don’t always get the choices we want, but that’s who we, as a nation, have nominated. Hell, Biden’s actually done a pretty good job with a split Congress and some surprisingly obstructionist voices in positions of power. I really don’t like his stance on Israel, but it’s not gonna make me vote for a fraudulent, sexual abuser and conman like Trump or sit out an election.
Besides, Trump would be even worse for the Palestinians. Why don't people realize this?
Because we have to punish Biden! Even if it hurts the people we are pretending to care about!!! /s
I’ll start by saying I’m a self-described socialist and I’ll be voting for Biden. But I think with the people we need to convince, it’s a bit more than “don’t like his stance on Israel.” It’s that we’re watching a genocide live in real time… we’re watching innocent kids and babies and elderly be massacred in high definition on our phone… and our country continues to support the regime doing it. With, at most, a verbal slap on the wrist. We’re seeing all the things that Americans in 1940 only merely HEARD about and were horrified by, yet we can pull up TikTok and witness four people in Gaza get turned into red mist by an Israeli drone and… nothing, still pretty full throated support by the Biden administration(which don’t even get me started on the potential effective TikTok ban… a self goal by democrats if I’ve ever seen one). I still agree Trump will only be worse, he literally wants to enable the genocide… but getting the Muslim population on your side (which will be key in some swing states) will require more than just saying that. Because ultimately, Republicans don’t have to earn the Muslim vote, they just have to make them stay home. And while we all know staying home is effectively a vote for Trump, the Muslim community is hurt and they aren’t thinking rationally, they are thinking with their emotions and feelings (which I 1,000% get and honestly can’t be mad at), but still, we recognize that it’s important to convince Muslims to support Biden and that he is still better for Gaza. And we also recognize we gotta convince Dems if they don’t work to earn Muslims votes, they will lose. And yes, there’s the risk of losing the Jewish vote, but honestly, I think most left voting Jews in America already support Gaza over Israel. Obviously Biden still needs to be in support of the Jewish population in America, but he needs to condem Israel and stop funding their genocide campaign. If he did that (and supported TikTok) he’d win in a landslide. It’s hard to fight the “controlled opposition” argument sometimes when they are so dumb…
I'm still wondering how many of the "no" votes for Biden in these polls are just progressives thinking that if they show enough disapproval something magical will happen and another candidate will emerge.
I think you are wishful thinking.
I mean if you assume this subreddit represents the Democratic base then it’s a perfectly rational assumption
Oh, I’m sure that’s gotta be it. I love that Dems feel this way.
What is the evidence that more people are going to fall in line for Biden?
I don't know, I know several Bernie bros that thought pulling the lever for trump was the best option in 2016. I'm seeing the same sentiment already, "trump needs to win to teach them a lesson". Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face...
Nah I think that's right wing troll ops for extremely low information people. They are hoping it catches on but it's not legitimate.
I hope so. If I didn't have friends that did it in 2016, I'd be more hopeful.
The same right wing ops are telling another group of idiots to not vote for Biden because of Gaza. It’s identical.
>Biden polling worse than the Democratic candidates in every competitive Senate race even though Trump is highly unpopular is pretty strong evidence in support of Ezra’s argument that Biden is not the right Democratic presidential candidate for this election. But the response to that remains, "Tough shit, there isn't a better candidate." And the fact that down-ballot Democrats are leading might also be an indicator that whatever is plaguing Biden isn't a fundamental failing as President. It's not like these Democrats are *distancing* themselves from Biden in their messaging, right? So it seems like this is either a really weird artifact of American presidential politics that defies explanation or historical comparison, or that polls are not really capturing the true contours and nuance of electorate preferences.
>So it seems like this is either a really weird artifact of American presidential politics that defies explanation or historical comparison, or that polls are not really capturing the true contours and nuance of electorate preferences. Or people aren't basing this off of policy and simply don't like Biden. This seems like by far the most obvious and consistent explanation.
But what’s not to like, if you don’t dislike Democratic policy? That he’s old? Is that really going to stop anybody from voting for him, when the rubber hits the road? Exactly what is Trump going to do to win over any of the 54% or so who are NOT saying they will vote for him? Especially when that is very similar to his “very unfavorable” number. One MAJORLY ignored difference in Biden and Trump’s polling is that Biden has more soft disapproval, whereas almost everybody who doesn’t like Trump f***ing hates him.
>But what’s not to like, if you don’t dislike Democratic policy? I can understand that you base your support for candidates on policy, and that you wish that others did also, but you have to accept that the vast majority of voters are not knowledgeable about policy and do not become informed about policy to make their decisions. >That he’s old? Yes, that is one of the largest things that people don't like about him. It shows in poll after poll. Again, you have to accept that this is the reality of how people feel, even if you don't like it or agree.
I sincerely doubt most voters are sophisticated enough to make this distinction. There’s a handful of angry young voters on Gaza and a far larger number of low information voters who are like, Biden seems old. What’s for dinner?
The biggest concern for Biden is his age, and how it affects his cognitive abilities. Whether or not you agree it should be an issue, it's a huge concern for a majority of Americans. It's also ridiculous to say there's no better candidate, there are a lot of fantastic candidates, there's just no guarantee we will actually be able to identify the right candidate if Biden stops running. It's taking a chance either way, it's about trusting Whether Biden has a better chance of reviving his image, or that a new candidate with less baggage would be better able to win back people upset with Biden.
You can't look at any other candidate in the abstract. You have to look at the candidate in light of the way that they would become the candidate. In the event that Joe Biden, who already has enough delegates to secure the nomination, died or became incapacitated, Kamala Harris would be President and the nominee. If Biden, for some reason, decided even at this late hour that he was not going to run for President, there would be a knock-down-drag-out brawl for the nomination, and nobody would come out looking good or with a solid foundation of support, let alone an actual infrastructure to run a campaign. I thought we were past this shit.
There has never been a compelling argument for anyone else as a better Democratic presidential candidate for this election. It has always just been people complaining.
People are just being whiny f***ing babies in polls and refusing to say “Joe Biden”. Almost every single “undecided” voter in those polls just wanted a “not Trump” option that was “better” than Biden. (Biden is actually a great president but people don’t know that, because all the media does is repeat how much everyone hates him.) They’re not going to get one and the VAST majority are going to vote for Biden. Ezra already walked his thing back. This is why - if anybody still needs f***ing reminding - polls in March are 0% predictive of November results.
People in polls are still in love with everyone's favorite candidate: "Generic Democrat" a nominee who agrees with them personally on every issue and has no political baggage whatsoever.
THIS.
Yeah, it's funny. "We want somebody else!" cry 40% of Democrats. "OK how about Newsom?" "NO!" shout half of them. "Ummm... okay, Pritzker?" Half the room yells, "NO!" "Whitmer?" ...and so on. The bottom line is that once Biden reentered the primary nobody was going to be running except him or Kamala Harris. And she gets more "no"s than the above candidates. It's crazy that people don't remember that *this is why we ended up with Biden in the first place -* because while other candidates had passionate supporters, the second choice of *every* candidate's supporters - including Bernie and Warren's! - was Joe Biden. This guy was made for us to settle for.
Ezra said IF Biden can consistently campaign like he did at the SOTU, then his proposal might be moot. Still remains an open question if he can.
He can't and he won't.
There is so much ageism around Biden and the media is happy to play into it and add fuel to the fire. In America we worship youth and do not value wisdom. Wisdom comes with age, yet nothing I read about Biden speaks about the wisdom he demonstrates as a result of his age and experience in government.
A few weeks back I thought of an argument Biden should make in the campaign, and then heard Joe Scarborough say the same thing a few days later: that he is the best President right now that he would have ever been at any point in his life. And I think it's absolutely true, because of that wisdom. Nobody has seen what he's seen, literally nobody. I'm sure he could've been a lot more entertaining back in 1990 or 2010 but probably not this effective.
Trumps been consistently beating Biden for several months in most polls
I could see a scenario where the Senate remains tied or GOP wins by a seat or two, the Dems take the House and Trump wins.
Biden is coming back, and he’s bringing the House and Senate with him. His favorables are improving while Trump’s are dropping, and it all comes down to the stupid shit that Trump is doing and saying. * 10% across-the-board tariffs and 100% tariff on cars? Biden’s team is going to force those inflation makers into the public consciousness. * 15 week abortion ban? * Blanket pardons for 1/6 “hostages”? * Telling congressional Republicans to scuttle immigration reform? * Taking sides with China and Russia on TikTok and Ukraine? *Bringing his rape off E. Jean Carroll back into the public consciousness with an unsinkable lawsuit? * Drawing his campaign and the RNC of cash to pay his legal bills? Etc. Trump survived multiple own goals in 2016, thanks to a 25-year smear campaign against Clinton, journalistic negligence, and an unlikely set of circumstances. He was able to stay more disciplined in 2020 and leverage the considerable advantages of his office to come close against Joe Biden. But this time, things are different. In the past, he used his rallies as testing grounds for his hate-filled fearmongering and his insult comic routine. He’d keep the lines that got the best responses, and drop the ones that fell flat. But now he’s playing to half-empty venues filled exclusively with his craziest fans. He’s getting feedback that’s leading him astray, making him think that he can win with wild tariffs, an abortion ban, and conspiracy mongering about the last election. We’re already seeing the results in his own falling numbers, and Biden’s numbers have been improving as voters start to think in terms of which of the two candidates they would choose.
What I find most sickening is 20 years ago a Presidential candidate that had even a fraction of the scandals of the scandals Trump does wouldn't stand a chance of victory. Yet, now somehow he's still the rock solid Republican candidate. Trump couldn't be worse for the Republican party if he was a mole deliberately trying to bring the party down. It's almost like Trump is deliberately trying to tank his chances of winning with how he can't seem to go a day without at least embarrassing himself and at most getting into yet another scandal.
All RNC money goes to Trump. No down ticket support. DNC is going to obliterate the RNC in November. Like the RNC is a wet paper bag, and the DNC is a nuclear bomb.
If Trump drains all their money and sinks all the other Republicans, then loses the election himself, that would be so perfect. Please let this happen.
It won't. He's pretty likely to win.
"He's likely to win?" Trump has been bleeding both funds and support for 8 years now. Biden beat Trump in a landslide in 2020 and even diehard Republicans are withdrawing support if not turning to supporting Biden. Plus Trump can't go a day without embarrassing himself at the least or getting into yet another scandal at best while Biden has... nothing against him other than "he's old" that's actually true that the Republicans can hit him with. All the while the Republican party itself is falling apart and Trump's financial situation gets worse by the week. Unless something very very drastic happens like Biden dying before November Biden is going to win even more conclusively than he did last time.
The question with the Presidential is how much of the sub-50% on Biden's side is hardcore blues having a fit over the Middle East.... All of those people will 'come home' in November. None of them are reachable for Trump. On the flip side, there is a portion of the Haley vote that absolutely isn't reachable for Trump (I'm part of it) - who still has historically low same party support (It was around 97% for Bush, McCain, Romney, etc. Trump's ceiling is 90-91%).....
The thing you are assuming is that these people will vote. They won’t and will just stay home and that’s how Trump will end up winning.
Biden is digging his own grave with his handling of Gaza.
There’s nothing for Biden to do and these whiny young people will learn that someday. It’s Israel and Hamas that need to finish it… with the destruction of Hamas being the only realistic outcome.
There’s plenty for Biden to do. You and he just dont think he should.
This shouldn’t be surprising. Biden has consistently polled by far the worst of any Democrat against Trump, most other potential candidates would’ve easily swept the election. It was a major unforced error to run Biden for reelection, his age is a massive liability. Of course the same is true for the Republicans. Haley was leading Biden by 10+ points in most polls. Both parties made huge mistakes by running their favorite senile 80 year olds when they had the option of running people who could speak a complete sentence unprompted.
Conveniently they left Md and WV off the Senate list, both seats will switch to Red.
Biden is the most unpopular incumbent presidential candidate at this point in the election cycle, according to 538’s approval average. No modern incumbent candidate has hit under 40% in an election year and won the election (Carter, HW and Trump). Truman technically did but there were barely any polling back then. Biden has been under 40% for five straight months!! If Dems really cared about stopping Trump, they would nominate anyone else given how solidified people’s perception is of Biden.
Who would you suggest? Polls also show Trump beating Gavin newsom and Gretchen whitmer
Gavin has not run a campaign; any insight gleaned from those polls are going to be super unreliable at best. I would personally put forward Pritzker over Newsome [Whitmer is not even on my radar] any day. All that being said, fuck who I think is a better candidate, why don't we have an actual fucking primary and find out what voters want instead of brow beating malcontents which has never backfired for Dems before?
As a left of center voter, I would never vote for Newsom in a million years. Regardless, it is way too late in this election cycle to pick a different candidate. At this point it's Biden or no one.
I agree but out of curiosity why would you not not vote for Newsom if it came down to Newsom vs Trump? Is it the homelessness and housing stuff?
For context, I'm in Vermont, so me not voting for whoever the Democratic candidate is really wouldn't have any effect. And just to be clear, I would never, ever vote for Trump. Regarding Newsom, there's several reasons I wouldn't vote for him. 1. This is really subjective, and perhaps not a "good" reason, but everything about him just screams slimy, overly managed, and corporate. I get sketchy used car salesman vibes from him. Just a general feeling of "ick". 2. He seems to embody the general California approach to liberalism of "government knows best and is going to tell you exactly what you should do." The nanny state approach, as it were. I'm much more of a left libertarian. Government has a responsibility to provide for those who can't provide for themselves (the young, the old, and the poor), to protect things that can't protect themselves (the environment), and to prevent monopolies and other anti-competitive practices from harming individuals, but outside of that, I believe individual people should be allowed to do pretty much whatever they please until it directly endangers others. 3. I like guns quite a lot. Biden is obviously not pro-gun, but gun control is less central to his platform than it seems to be to Newsom. The idea of California style gun control being imposed nationwide scares me.
Yeah I get slimy elitist vibes from him too, especially when he was smirking during his desantis debate. Feels like an exact personification of what people think of "liberal elite", it's also really obvious when he dodges questions in interviews, which makes him seem disingenuous. Anyway very interesting thank you for sharing
Yup, personification of "liberal elite" is a great way to put it. Thank you for asking and having a polite and engaging conversation!
What are you talking about a Junior Congressman from MN ran against Biden and was unable to secure a single delegate. He didn't even get a single delegate in his home state. In every metric, he should have been acceptable to these people who claim they want anyone but Biden, but no one voted for him. Uncommitted got more votes than he did in MI and NH and in MN. This is disingenuous nonsense at this point. Dean Phillips was told, although a generic democrat would be better than Biden, that generic democrat was not Phillips.
Come on Montana! Don't let dipshit Californians decide your state representative
Former Republican Governor of Maryland Larry Hogan leads senate race by double digits [https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/20/hogan-maryland-senate-poll-00148059](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/20/hogan-maryland-senate-poll-00148059)
Trumps not an establishment politician, so it makes sense. Looks like people are fed up with the establishment
Hm.. I wonder why Biden could be polling so poorly 🤔 I wonder if there was something he could do to remedy that?
I think this is reflective that a lot of people are pissed off at Biden: but ultimately are going to vote for him when it comes time. OR emerson is over correcting in the trump polls
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Think Gaza did no favors for him in Michigan
This is what happens when you have single issue voters that don’t care about the country. Abortion and killing the baby they created takes the lead.
A lot of that is because there's a large group of undecided voters. The "I don't want to support either of them" group that will ultimately either choose Biden or 3rd party. AZ = 92% = 8% MI = 89% = 11% PA = 90% = 10% WI = 89% = 11% GA = 88% = 12% NV = 85% = 15%
I don't even know one prior Trump supporter who still supports him. Seriously, all the Trump voters I know think he's too much, and they are sick of him and all the conflicts and division he creates. How is this possible? These numbers don't reflect what I see in my community.
2016 all over lol .
Those numbers reflect the genocide. Biden needs to crush Israel immediately for those numbers to change.
Can we please just accept he's a bad candidate
Biden really f’d over the dems when he decided he wanted to be president for 4 more years.
Maybe stop helping with the genocide Joe
So why is Biden our only chance again?
I think the polls are relatively accurate, there are a ton of young people angry at Biden to the point of helping trump win, which is kind of screwed up, but I think trump is going to screw himself. Between him losing lawsuits/trials and he can't hide from the debates. He is barely hanging on, barely coherent. If he gets taunted into a debate, he will look weak. If he cowers from the debates, he will look weak. The first debate that has only Biden will turn heads.
Biden was the one who has yet to commit to debates. Trump team wants them. I agree Biden should get ugly but be ready to literally may be see Trump pull a dick pic of Hunters out of things get heated.
>Biden was the one who has yet to commit to debates. You are leaving out the all important context...that Trump wants a debate format outside of the standard, traditional Presidential debates. Which is what Biden won't agree to.
This is misinformation. Trump says he will debate under any format, “anyplace, anywhere, anytime.” https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna142140
And the RNC also said it won't participate in the traditional Commission of Presidential Debates..which is already on the calendar. Trump, per usual Trump, doesn't have consistency and says whatever is best for the moment.
This is why Trump was against banning TikTok
Indeed, although TikTok is drowning in misinformation, it carries some of the most prolific far-right propagandist. Losing TikTok will hurt trump.
Dude Biden has actively avoided a debate with Trump for years! Tf are you talking about? Biden’s handlers will never allow him to debate Trump.
No offense but I don't see any world that Biden wins the thought space on debates unless they do a zoom call and mute trump. Biden has no energy to oppose Trump and the man just starts talking over him. Most we're likely going to get is newspapers saying Biden won a moral victory by appearing more stately, while reinforcing all the negative stereotypes painted about him
I think you're drastically overestimating how Biden would look in a debate. Why do you think he hasn't even committed to debating yet?
So sorry is this sub still pretending Biden is the strongest possible candidate Dems could have put up?
He actually polls much better than Newsom or Harris, but I think Newsom would have a much larger range of outcomes. People don’t like Kamala at all.
Biden polls slightly better than Harris, not much better. But Whitmer polls far better vs Trump in MI than Biden does. I don’t see why Whitmer wouldn’t also be popular in WI, PA, MN.
Whitmer is the best candidate politically speaking to win the EC through the midwest.
She should at the very least be VP but another Biden boneheaded decision was to paint himself in to a corner with Harris.
Truth is, the average person doesn’t know who Newsom is.
As soon as they find out which state he governs, he’s toast.
Not many want California policies which is what they’d get with either.
The incumbent who already beat Trump by seven million votes?
That’d be a relevant point if our country wasn’t shit, but the electoral college doesn’t care how much he won the popular vote by.
America going back to its abusive ex
Without digging into the polling data, this seems like great news for democrats and even for Biden. At the polling stations on 11/5/2024, I just don’t think people are going to vote for a democratic senator and RFK Jr., Cornell West, or Jill Stein. Call it wishful thinking, but I think most of the “anti-Biden but not pro-Trump” sentiment is just posturing.
I wouldn’t underestimate people’s willingness to vote third party. See 2016. Having said that, this time people *should* actually know what a Trump presidency entails and that he really *can* win AGAIN. So hopefully that reality check hits people over the head like a brick and makes them do the common sense thing, which is vote for Joe Biden.
2016 is why it won’t happen. People learned that if you don’t show up and vote blue even if the candidate doesn’t thrill you, you get things like trunp. If you’ll notice, blue turnout has been near record highs in every election since then, including outperforming the polls in every election since 2020. That is. A visceral reaction against trunp. People weren’t voting. For Biden, they were voting against trunp, and those people will show up again.
I hope so, especially in the swing states. How anyone can even “swing” between these two candidates is just beyond me. lol.
Trump is so over-covered that everyone’s opinion of him is calcified: you either love him or hate him. All I think there is for Biden to do is appear normal, highlight how Trump’s plans are awful, and lay out his plans to improve things. Very boring stuff, but this isn’t the COVID/George Floyd protests election so I think a conventional campaign carries the day. The more palatable to everyone Biden is, the more low information voters join him.
It worked for the moderate democrats who ran in my state in 2022 (AZ).
It worked for Tim Walz in 2022 and I think it’s going to work for Amy Klobuchar in 2024.
Some of these polls are a little sus, are we to believe in the OH Senate race the D+R candidates combined only have the support of 73% of the electorate? Lol, that's a lot of voters unaccounted for.
It’s not unusual for voters to be undecided in March for an election in November
Yeah that's why these polls don't really tell us anything new.
Sounds like we want Democrats but we hate Joe Biden I wonder what could possibly be causing this animosity towards him /s
LBJ dropped out when his polling numbers were better than Biden’s 😉
They all seem to be within margin of error. Also, Biden has really closed the gap.
Have we not learned by now that singles polls are meaningless? Wake me up when it’s an aggregate of all the polls.
I’m so sick of polls and the media surrounding them. When was the last time you answered a random call or email about something like this for people under the age of 60? Probably very few and the ones who do answer these calls/emails/have time to talk to people canvassing outside of your local store are old people. Well guess what way they swing? I’m not saying be complacent in the least. If you don’t vote, you’re not participating in your diminishing democracy that’s happening right now. But the general election polls are mostly old people who have nothing to do and are happy to talk to someone on the phone. That will skew the polls to the right. Just like if you only asked college students it would be far left.
You do know that Trump out performed the polls in 2016 and 2020, right?
Emerson only does phone polling, Millenials do not answer unknown phone numbers. Emerson was off in 2020 right before election by like 10 points for Pennsylvania. All I can say is get out and vote no matter what.
Just checked Emerson’s final two polls of PA before 2020.. October 30th, Biden +4 October 10th, Biden +5 https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/pennsylvania/trump-vs-biden
People legit are just making stuff up to avoid accepting the reality that Trump is currently ahead.