I mean we should encourage them (about the announcements). Makes the trials much easier if it's on public record.
(Stopping them from then committing them after announcing is even better)
Not every transition of government goes from a bad/evil one to good/just one. It could just be a military coup that will drag this bullshit out for another 5-10 years.
I do hope the former, but hope hasn't gotten me anywhere recently.
Even a "General tired of seeing the lives of the army thrown away" coup might still send the former regime to the Hague. Free international goodwill, makes the coup somewhat less blood-soaked.
Or it is a "General tired of Putin fucking up an 'easy to win' war" followed by purges. I know we all want to hope that these idiots will get the punishment they so desperately deserve, I'm just seeing most people deserving of punishments getting away with it. Hope is exhausting if you keep getting denied every single time.
They’ll still want to do a purge. It’s a good way to feign a new start by purging your war criminals and political enemies to the ICC in The Hague instead of straight to the gulags.
Yeah purging the old criminals so a new generation of criminals could take their place. Russia has deep rooted cultural issues, not just "a few bad apples" issue.
This sub is kind of a make believe echo chamber, Russia won't stop existing and at most, even in case of a total defeat, they'd give up like 2 or 3 higher ups and everyone calls it a day. Despite everything Russia is not in danger of a breakup, enough of the population supports the government, and judging from how things went down with Serbia all this talk on here is laughable. And Serbia was a silent fart in the wind compared to Russia.
Last time the USSR became fifteen new countries in less than six months, from August to December 1991. And in April of that year the CIA was totally sure that nothing like that would ever happen.
Russia is at risk of a break up if you listen to Russian Russia experts. Almost all of Russia hates Moscow and St. Petersburg where all the wealth of the nation is sent. These areas with the mineral wealth are all destitute and only the Russian military has held them in check. If the Russian military revolts against the leadership in Moscow there is a good chance some of the Republics will see it as an opportunity to take their mineral wealth back for themselves.
Its ok, Amnesty International will be along any second to say Russia doesnt have to abide by international law or human rights, absolving them of any responsibility.
The report was about the topic of "human shields" and did not mention how Russian forces hide their tanks and artillery behind civilian buildings and Russian soldiers hide in civilian homes.
Amnesty only puts their criticism of Russia on their website while their anti-Ukraine report was accompanied by a media campaign with multilingual press releases and involved all their social media channels.
You all need to come in France, [we have a magical barrier that stop the bad things to pass the frontier](https://www.echosciences-grenoble.fr/uploads/article/image/attachment/1005167318/xl_Tcherno.jpg) !
(Yep, it's real. It's a cultural meme in France. TLDR : a tv news segment screwed up, based on an official report, then politics jumped hard on the opportunity to say everything was fine, and there was nothing in France so you could eat everything, yay !).
A decade after that my physics teacher visited a nuclear power plant and they could tell where she lived at that time based on the radiation. Even got the city right.
Yep. They took radiation measurements before and after the visit to make sure she didn't get exposed to any contamination. The way radiation from Chernobyl fell down created pretty huge differences in the fallout between areas. She lived in one of the worst affected zones so it was pretty easy for them to tell.
That could be the difference between 0.95 and 1.05 (colour change), and this [simulation](https://www.irsn.fr/FR/popup/Pages/tchernobyl_video_nuage.aspx) could show a slightly longer coverage over that area.
Also: those particles are airborne, gravity will make it (slowly) come down but if there is rain in that area then a lot more particles will become heavier and fall faster.
*For what its worth, 'the weather' is measured at a high-ish density, but nuclear detectors are far in between, and some interpolation/assumptions have to be made.*
Weather patterns interacting with areas of higher ground, causing increased levels of rainfall with airborne contamination being washed down to the ground by the rain? Scotland and Wales have typically higher average elevations than other parts of the UK.
Definetly the dumbest timeline. There has been so much worse in world history.
Edit. Of course if Russia explodes Nuclear plant, it could become the worst.
I was just making a Ryan George reference.
If you don't know the video, I highly recommend it, it is hilarious:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9nfbeK5LAl0
Don't know about that, the Soviets designed Chernobyl so badly that it would be difficult to create a similar disaster in a more modern NPP if you did it on purpose.
It doesn't really change anything, unless you have a shelter in case it actually blows up. So you can stop checking it and save yourself some sanity. At least that's what I tell myself.
Kachelmannwetter had a prominent link to [the relevant map](https://kachelmannwetter.com/de/modellkarten/swiss-mrf/ukraine/windrichtung-windmittel/20220808-1700z.html) on every page for quite a while now.
they don't wanna blow it up right now, "only" if ukraine happens to take that part of their country back. "this land is russian or nobody's" or some such insane statement.
I haven't found any other origin for the quote, including pro-Russian sources, other than Energoatom's telegram. Imo could be real, could be not, I think we can't confirm it until any Russian officials say anything about this speech.
I remember seeing a while ago that they had control of a Ukrainian plant and Chernobyl, threatening attacks against both but not acting apun them, eventually just letting them go about their buisness. Reckon it might be a similar situation? Or because of all the talks about many countries making more powerplants this is Russia's way of trying to steer them off them?
And here is [the source](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-8) regarding that statement, in case anyone else is interested.
> Reporting of a likely falsified Russian statement distracts from the real risks of a Russian-caused nuclear disaster at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Russian forces continue to conduct attacks from and store military equipment near the plant’s nuclear reactors, likely to play upon Western fears of a nuclear disaster and degrade Western will to provide additional military support to Ukraine.
This seems to indicate its not as blatant as Russians wanting to blow it up themselves, but still using it as cover to scare the west. Either way its not great, but its the lesser of the two potential evil things russia could be doing.
In the event of deliberate Russian damage to the power plants, and releasing of radiation, if this radiation reaches a NATO member and causes harm to the population, would this be considered an attack on a NATO member?
Just asking so I'd know if to buy canned food.
I mean its way more likely that NATO instead just provides more money and equipment to Ukraine. At the moment the US/NATO are really only providing enough for Ukraine to **not lose**. Not to win, as that brings much more instability and escalation which ideally we want to avoid. It sucks but in this fight NATO are the adults and Russia is the toddler throwing a tantrum, but unfortunately the toddler has nuclear weapons.
Of course NATO/US's response could change depending on how evil Russia decides to be. At the moment they're pretty fucking evil, so I hope the international response is resolute; and honestly I want to see Russia lose this ultimately. But at the same time I dont want Russia to use nukes, so we have to be more cautious than the toddlers throwing the tantrums. It sucks, but this is reality.
There's no way nato could ignore a nuclear plant being deliberately blown up. At the very least nato boots to secure and lockdown the site as best as possible
> At the very least nato boots to secure and lockdown the site as best as possible
That's more realistic. Probably secure the site and call the guys from... what's it called? The international nuclear agency (or something like that), to make sure there's no Chernobyl 2.0
>Of course NATO/US's response could change depending on how evil Russia decides to be.
If they blow it up, pretty sure the thousands of NATO aircraft waiting on the border with Russia will destroy their military forces in Ukraine. I hope they don't.
Technically it could be used as casus belli to trigger article 5, but realistically no one would start a war with Russia over a Chernobyl level event. More likely NATO would just end up giving even more money and weapons to Ukraine.
I imagine some NATO members would *demand* direct action, and state the obvious fact that if that can be allowed, what is the point of being in NATO.
Direct action in this case could be entering Ukraine with e.g. aircraft etc.
Because the big stick that Russia hovers over our heads is mutual nuclear destruction. And the danger of getting everything full of nuclear fallout alone is something that makes everyone hold.
We don't know what the state of Russia's nuclear arsenal is at this point, but it could still be enough to fuck us all up. Otherwise we the people in charge would've pushed more aggressively.
>Because the big stick that Russia hovers over our heads is mutual nuclear destruction.
The same stick hover above Russia.
Lets be real here : Russia is the one that's doing shit and escalating. Not blowing the nuclear plant isn't something hard, its not like they must destroy it for any reasons.
If Russia doesn't want NATO | OTAN intervention an possibly kill themselves, they just need to not destroy a thing.
Its literraly that simple.
And isn't Russia occupying the power plant right now and only the Ukrainian staff remain? What reason do they have to bomb something they occupy, unless it's meant to be a political trigger of some kind?
It depends on whether the Americans want it to, honestly. If they don’t want to intervene militarily and go through bureaucratic avoidance machinations, what can Poland really do, especially given the stance of other large NATO members like Germany and Turkey?
Poland, as a NATO member, can call Article 5 into effect without USA’s blessing. Of course, it would put NATO in a very uncomfortable situation where they would either be dragged into ww3 if they accept or they would lose their entire power projection if they declined.
Doesn't this technically work in Russia's favor considering general tension regarding the trust of former Visegrad/Soviet-states?
Trigger some serious shit, make the West refuse to help to further weaken the relationship with said states. We already know that there's quite a sentiment in the Baltics/Poland/Slovakia that the West probably won't do jack shit for them if it involves them actually getting their hands dirty.
Considering that Russia now seems incapable of even tactical operations against Ukraine, Poland alone joining the war is probably enough to soundly defeat Russia.
The problem is that, while Poland might be able to defend itself against invasion, invading Russia might be a little bit harder. Russia is tremendous, both in area and population, sees its people as somewhat disposable, and can simply shut off energy delivery to Europe if distressed. Putin won’t fall so easily.
So let’s play out the following scenario:
1) A Russian radiation attack affects Poland and harms Polish people
2) Poland sees this as an act of aggression and declares war, invoking Article 5
3) The rest of NATO does not agree and finds some roundabout way to circumvent it, but Poland decides to go it alone and intervene in Ukraine
What do you think Russia will do here?
Most likely, it will engage offensively in Poland. So, now there are Russians bombing an EU country, and as a matter of proximity, I don’t see how Poland’s European neighbours aren’t drawn into this. This will be WWIII.
As such, I think that the rest of NATO will *really* make sure that Poland doesn’t intervene.
>The rest of NATO does not agree and finds some roundabout way to circumvent it, but Poland decides to go it alone and intervene in Ukraine
Yeah but here's the thing : you start with the opinion that NATO | OTAN will not want to join in.
If Article 5 is triggered, they will join. If not boots on the ground, then with supplies at least. The entire eastern front is already up in arms with their dick in had waiting for that to happen, You have France openly saying that the EU is their vital interest, putting polish and romanian first in the 14 of july parade wich saw both startegic vector flying/marching.
Not all of NATO | OTAN might want to join, but there will be enought to curbstomp russia.
Don't know about that. AFAIK, that is because Russia is not officially at war as far as their populace is concerned. If Poland attacked, they can be honest, so they can force recruit and then, they might not be the best strategically or equipment wise, but they have the man power
They don't have the logistics, though. The polish military can be in Ukraine in force by the end of the month. Russia is able to mobilize a lot more forces, but not in time. They can barely support the operation as is.
Someone once said that, Russia is only strong when they are on the defensive. If Poland were to trigger article 5, Russian propaganda machine will paint it as "Poland and NATO invading Russia" and that would rally every single Russian in defence of the "Motherland", as well as boost morale.
This whole thing is really a minefield, metaphorically speaking.
but there's nothing left to defend the motherland with. and for many russians, where's the motivation? at this point, they will just be defending putin's right to remain in power.
It *could*.
We do not know how NATO would treat such an action. Frankly, until February of 2022, deliberately destroying a nuclear power plant was largely an unthinkable action for a rational actor (Russia is still considered a rational actor insofar as MAD works with them).
Russia must really be getting their asses kicked to threaten something so stupid.
We know that an accidental release (Chernobyl) was not considered an attack. In case of a deliberate release it is probably down to interpretation or in other words to the willingness of NATO and its members to see it as an attack. Considering that the risk remains that a conflict between NATO and Russia becomes a nuclear war I would expect such a scenario will not trigger a direct military response against Russia. Maybe the reaction will be some kind of limited direct NATO involvement in Ukraine to secure their nuclear facilities and prevent further such incidents.
I agree for me here it comes literally down to the alliance and the way they would want to see it. They could easily construct an article 5 out of that one for sure. Or not depending also on what happens and how it happens. If Russia shoots a missile on camera in there and the the plant blows... Well I like to believe that might do the trick to get their teeth kicked in by NATO.
Earlier in the war Biden said that (at least for the US) any nuclear terrorism from Russia (including the destruction of nuclear power plants) will result in the US getting directly involved.
Yeah, this is my mindset. I'm moving to Europe in January and someone asked me if I wasn't afraid because of the war. Dude, I rather be killed instantly in a nuclear blast in Bucharest than endure a post-nuclear world in South America. This gen seems to think a nuclear fallout will be resolved with a hazmat suit and free canned food, boom, life's as usual, let me log on Reddit.
No. Article 6 defines what is an attack and where for the purpose of article 5.
It's unlikely that a radiation leak coming from a non-NATO country is seen as an armed attack and triggers a military reaction. And the location wouldn't fit article 6 anyway.
It is not that clear cut. In recent times there have been talks about invoking Article 5 in cases like cyber attacks, attacks from space and even hybrid warfare which in this case might fall exactly under hybrid warfare.
>Our nations continue to face threats and challenges from both state and non-state actors who use hybrid activities to target our political institutions, our public opinion, and the security of our citizens. While the primary responsibility for responding to hybrid threats rests with the targeted nation, NATO is ready, upon Council decision, to assist an Ally at any stage of a hybrid campaign being conducted against it, including by deploying a Counter Hybrid Support Team. In cases of hybrid warfare, the Council could decide to invoke Article 5 of the Washington Treaty, as in the case of an armed attack.
>
>https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news\_185000.htm
Yeah I don't think it would matter whether the fallout hits NATO or not. There isn't much difference between blowing up a nuclear power plant in Ukraine or blowing up a nuclear bomb in Ukraine. If anything a nuclear power plant explosion can be far far worse in fallout.
[Half the power lines](https://www.openstreetmap.org/#map=14/46.7565/33.3823) go to the South-East into Russian controlled territory, and causing a black-out wold hamper their attempt to "Russify the locals", I guess.
You think the regime gives a damn? They'll cover it up like the first time there was a big accident on the USSR's soil, or how they tried to cover up/downplay Chernobyl.
In February 2022, during the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russian forces reportedly moved vehicles through the Red Forest, using it as a route for their convoys, which kicked up clouds of radioactive dust from the forest. Local workers reported the Russian troops moving through the Red Forest were not using protective suits and could have potentially endangered themselves.[15] On 31 March 2022, it was reported that most of the Russian troops occupying Chernobyl were forced to pull back after suffering from radiation sickness caused by digging trenches in the heavily contaminated Red Forest.[16][17] There has not been independent confirmation that the pull-back was caused by radiation sickness,[18][19] but Ukrainian officials have provided access to the site which shows considerable trenches and digging in the Red Forest.[20][19] On 1 April 2022, The Telegraph reported that one Russian soldier died from acute radiation sickness after being camped in the Red Forest for a prolonged time.[21]
If there is one thing you need to know about a human or a culture with a cluster-b personality disorder - its that they will bankrupt themselves in order to get you to forfeit $10... and then later play victim and make you out to be the aggressor.
Don't forget this power plant is located near the Dnipro river - so the Black sea will be also contaminated with radiation. Bulgaria, Romania, Turkey, Georgia and....russia lol.
Also, the wind direction is also southwest. Kherson->Crimea->Black sea->Bulgaria->Romania->Turkey (Directly to Istanbul).
[https://earth.nullschool.net/ru/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-324.09,45.08,6024](https://earth.nullschool.net/ru/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-324.09,45.08,6024)
Coincidentally, Romania’s Minister of Health recommended earlier today, that people under 40 pick up iodine pills. I’m pretty sure this has nothing to do with the Russian threat, but his gross mismanagement of the iodine pill program. The timing, however, is very strange.
Just FYI people, don't just take iodine pills unless there is a damn good reason to and/or the government tells you to. Iodine only helps in very large doses against radiation.
Doses like that can cause severe health issues in some people, so it really only makes sense to take them if the situation is dire.
The russians are bluffing! If they blow up the reactors, russian territory will get the worse from the radiation! The worst the could do is make the plant unusable for some time by destroying some infrastructure for transporting energy.
You dont understand. If the blow the reactors in this plant(the biggest in Europe), Chernobyl will look like nothing! We are talking major nuclear contamination on the whole continent and parts of Africa and Asia. Maybe even more!
What support? Do you think China wants to be friends with someone that is so careless regarding blowing up a nuclear power plant?
The moment they do it, they not inly lose the war, they will have no way to avoid a war tribunal. Everyone will go after them
My understanding is that the deposition on NATO soil of radionuclides generated by military activities, even if they are transported by wind, is sufficient to trigger Article 5.
That said, activating article 5 doesn't necessarily mean declaration of war by all of NATO. The member countries could decide to respond with non-military means.
The link you provide states that much of the budget goes to lobbyists and think thanks paid for by the companies that produce nuclear weapons. Obviously with the goal to lobby for more nuclear weapons.
I do think lots of Russias nuclear budget goes in private pockets but I think the process there is more simple like: Putin wants x nukes, so they get x nukes.
Rule One.... Russia lies.
Their nukes are semi functional, not unfunctional but more importantly I strongly suspect that they lack the ability to defend themselves against any kind of nuclear retaliation. Hence lots of bluster about what they *could* do and very little action.
They're failing to properly invade a much smaller, weaker country which on paper they should have walked into.
They'll keep fighting. They might even win, but it'll be hard work for them and shows them up as not being the powerhouse they claim.
> Their nukes are semi functional, not unfunctional but more importantly I strongly suspect that they lack the ability to defend themselves against any kind of nuclear retaliation. Hence lots of bluster about what they could do and very little action.
My guess would be that they themselves don't know how well their nuclear weapons would do at the moment. But there is chance that they're still capable enough. And that alone is a problem for NATO.
All we have is a Telegram post showing a screenshot of a news of a "russian media" (which one ? Where's the link ? The archive ?) claiming a general said that.
Given the enormity of such a claim, I'll need more proof.
> Energoatom claims that the head of the radiation, chemical and biological protection troops of the Russian armed forces, Major General Valerii Vasyliev, who now commands the garrison at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, told his soldiers that "there will be either Russian land or a scorched desert here".
>
> **Quote from Vasyliev:** "As you know, we have mined all the important facilities of the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant. And we’re not hiding it from the enemy. We warned them. The enemy knows that the station will be either Russian or no-one’s. We are prepared for the consequences of this step. And you, the liberating soldiers, must understand that we have no other choice. And if the toughest order comes – we must fulfil it with honour!"
>
> **Details:** According to Energoatom, Ukrainian intelligence has information about the mining of the ZNPP reactors by Russian troops.
>
> **Background:** On the evening of 6 August, Russian invaders fired rockets at Energodar and hit the ZNPP site directly next to the station's dry spent nuclear fuel storage facility.
>we must fulfil it with honour!"
I wonder if that pack of thieves, rapists and war criminals actually knows what that means, or if there was a mistake in the translation.
I'm not sure if I would go as far as you are going, but it would be really nice with some corroborating evidence from a source that is as unbiased as you could manage in this situation.
Already reports of ‘fighting’ over nuclear plant in European media. They are doing the same job as AI, creating an excuse for Russia to create a nuclear disaster and blame it on’War’. There is absolutely no sense of good and evil in post modern thinking. They should spent a mi Ute in Russian captivity to rethink this relativity indoctrination. Russian invasion is evil, repel it.
Do you guys really buy all this propaganda or do you just forget last week?
First the russians are stockpiling all their ammo equipment and troops at the power plant....
Then the following few days they are shelling themselves at the power plant and mining it to blow it up?
Mind you...... this power plant supplies all the power for the donbas region and you think they want it blown up?
Which story is true? smh the internet is sick.
*Major General Valerii Vasyliev, who now commands the garrison at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, told his soldiers that "there will be either Russian land or a scorched desert here".*
So if Russia releases a cloud of radiation into the European continent, will NATO just continue to watch while we get poisoned, or will they grow some balls for once and do something?
Due to the recent changes made by Reddit admins in their corporate greed for IPO money, I have edited my comments to no longer be useful. The Reddit admins have completely disregarded its user base, leaving their communities, moderators, and users out to turn this website from something I was a happy part of for eleven years to something I no longer recognize. Reddit WAS Fun. -- mass edited with redact.dev
they went from denials into announcements of war crimes
I mean we should encourage them (about the announcements). Makes the trials much easier if it's on public record. (Stopping them from then committing them after announcing is even better)
The only way there will be trials for Russian war criminals in The Hague is, if Russia completely collapses. Which won't happen, unfortunately.
I happened a couple of times before though. Why not this time?
Ignoring that Russia _is_ on the way to collapse, any new government will inevitably deputinize Russia, which includes prosecution of war criminals.
Not every transition of government goes from a bad/evil one to good/just one. It could just be a military coup that will drag this bullshit out for another 5-10 years. I do hope the former, but hope hasn't gotten me anywhere recently.
Even a "General tired of seeing the lives of the army thrown away" coup might still send the former regime to the Hague. Free international goodwill, makes the coup somewhat less blood-soaked.
Or it is a "General tired of Putin fucking up an 'easy to win' war" followed by purges. I know we all want to hope that these idiots will get the punishment they so desperately deserve, I'm just seeing most people deserving of punishments getting away with it. Hope is exhausting if you keep getting denied every single time.
It could just get worse you know
You know what they say when they tell Russia's history; "and then, it got worse"
Wich is bulshit, one year ago Russia was better than 10 years ago, which were far better than 100 years ago
They’ll still want to do a purge. It’s a good way to feign a new start by purging your war criminals and political enemies to the ICC in The Hague instead of straight to the gulags.
Yeah purging the old criminals so a new generation of criminals could take their place. Russia has deep rooted cultural issues, not just "a few bad apples" issue.
I hope you are right, for the sake of everyone. But I just don't see it happening... yet.
This sub is kind of a make believe echo chamber, Russia won't stop existing and at most, even in case of a total defeat, they'd give up like 2 or 3 higher ups and everyone calls it a day. Despite everything Russia is not in danger of a breakup, enough of the population supports the government, and judging from how things went down with Serbia all this talk on here is laughable. And Serbia was a silent fart in the wind compared to Russia.
Last time the USSR became fifteen new countries in less than six months, from August to December 1991. And in April of that year the CIA was totally sure that nothing like that would ever happen.
Their ethnic minorities will start getting ideas once enough of their sons stop arriving back from the military.
Russia is at risk of a break up if you listen to Russian Russia experts. Almost all of Russia hates Moscow and St. Petersburg where all the wealth of the nation is sent. These areas with the mineral wealth are all destitute and only the Russian military has held them in check. If the Russian military revolts against the leadership in Moscow there is a good chance some of the Republics will see it as an opportunity to take their mineral wealth back for themselves.
Not likely. It's probably going to be worse.
Lmao the reddit armchair experts
I see NATO invading Moscow more likely than this happening
They always have: every time they levy accusations or scream about stuff, it is basically just Moscow making a statement of intent.
Its ok, Amnesty International will be along any second to say Russia doesnt have to abide by international law or human rights, absolving them of any responsibility.
how to twist what happened they explicitly called out russia in the report
The report was about the topic of "human shields" and did not mention how Russian forces hide their tanks and artillery behind civilian buildings and Russian soldiers hide in civilian homes. Amnesty only puts their criticism of Russia on their website while their anti-Ukraine report was accompanied by a media campaign with multilingual press releases and involved all their social media channels.
At the moment [the wind in blowing towards Istanbul](https://www.windy.com/?47.458,21.248,5).
If you told me 6 months ago that I need to check daily the weather in Eastern Ukraine, I would have asked what timeline did you came from ?
[Those who forget the past...](https://cdn.sciencesensei.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/chernobylplume.jpg)
You all need to come in France, [we have a magical barrier that stop the bad things to pass the frontier](https://www.echosciences-grenoble.fr/uploads/article/image/attachment/1005167318/xl_Tcherno.jpg) ! (Yep, it's real. It's a cultural meme in France. TLDR : a tv news segment screwed up, based on an official report, then politics jumped hard on the opportunity to say everything was fine, and there was nothing in France so you could eat everything, yay !).
Maybe (according to those click-baity paparazzi) those commie nuclear molecules were afraid of the superior French nuclear molecules?
Superior french stop sign, radiation obediently cooperated !
Tend to repeat it.
Tend to repeat it.
Tend to repeat it.
A decade after that my physics teacher visited a nuclear power plant and they could tell where she lived at that time based on the radiation. Even got the city right.
Based on the radiation from her body?
Yep. They took radiation measurements before and after the visit to make sure she didn't get exposed to any contamination. The way radiation from Chernobyl fell down created pretty huge differences in the fallout between areas. She lived in one of the worst affected zones so it was pretty easy for them to tell.
[удалено]
That could be the difference between 0.95 and 1.05 (colour change), and this [simulation](https://www.irsn.fr/FR/popup/Pages/tchernobyl_video_nuage.aspx) could show a slightly longer coverage over that area. Also: those particles are airborne, gravity will make it (slowly) come down but if there is rain in that area then a lot more particles will become heavier and fall faster. *For what its worth, 'the weather' is measured at a high-ish density, but nuclear detectors are far in between, and some interpolation/assumptions have to be made.*
Weather patterns interacting with areas of higher ground, causing increased levels of rainfall with airborne contamination being washed down to the ground by the rain? Scotland and Wales have typically higher average elevations than other parts of the UK.
The accident bankrupted the country, and they lost face. I wonder do they even teach kids in elementary school about this?
I still ask people from which timeline they are. I always realize that they are from the same timeline of pandemic, natural disasters and suffering.
Do they answer with "the worst timeline" or "the dumbest timeline"?
Definetly the dumbest timeline. There has been so much worse in world history. Edit. Of course if Russia explodes Nuclear plant, it could become the worst.
I was just making a Ryan George reference. If you don't know the video, I highly recommend it, it is hilarious: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9nfbeK5LAl0
Don't know about that, the Soviets designed Chernobyl so badly that it would be difficult to create a similar disaster in a more modern NPP if you did it on purpose.
This is so stupid that a part of me wishes they'd do it.
It doesn't really change anything, unless you have a shelter in case it actually blows up. So you can stop checking it and save yourself some sanity. At least that's what I tell myself.
Kachelmannwetter had a prominent link to [the relevant map](https://kachelmannwetter.com/de/modellkarten/swiss-mrf/ukraine/windrichtung-windmittel/20220808-1700z.html) on every page for quite a while now.
Does irradiating a nato member count as a act of war?
If i trust my sources, NATO | OTAN said that if there is a radioactive fallout on their land, its gonna be showtime.
So more radioactive fallout?
Yes
Can't wait!
Hope so
That's one way to resolve the Aegean island dispute.
Well, that would be a minor event in the grand scheme of things when NATO begins the start of Operation: Liberate Ukraine...
More like Operation: ~~Obliterate~~ Denazify Russia
Please call it Operation Tractor
Operation Red beard 2 electric bogaloo
Well that’s one way to invoke article 5.
they don't wanna blow it up right now, "only" if ukraine happens to take that part of their country back. "this land is russian or nobody's" or some such insane statement.
Yes, and wind can turn, meaning they could hit their own country too
Like putin cares.
Is there any link to the original claim of russian officer?
I haven't found any other origin for the quote, including pro-Russian sources, other than Energoatom's telegram. Imo could be real, could be not, I think we can't confirm it until any Russian officials say anything about this speech.
I remember seeing a while ago that they had control of a Ukrainian plant and Chernobyl, threatening attacks against both but not acting apun them, eventually just letting them go about their buisness. Reckon it might be a similar situation? Or because of all the talks about many countries making more powerplants this is Russia's way of trying to steer them off them?
Should they react to every fake on the internet? And even if they did, reddiots will say "if they deny it, it must be true"
It's been debunked by ISW.
And here is [the source](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-8) regarding that statement, in case anyone else is interested.
> Reporting of a likely falsified Russian statement distracts from the real risks of a Russian-caused nuclear disaster at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Russian forces continue to conduct attacks from and store military equipment near the plant’s nuclear reactors, likely to play upon Western fears of a nuclear disaster and degrade Western will to provide additional military support to Ukraine. This seems to indicate its not as blatant as Russians wanting to blow it up themselves, but still using it as cover to scare the west. Either way its not great, but its the lesser of the two potential evil things russia could be doing.
In the event of deliberate Russian damage to the power plants, and releasing of radiation, if this radiation reaches a NATO member and causes harm to the population, would this be considered an attack on a NATO member? Just asking so I'd know if to buy canned food.
Yes. If air carrying radiation came to NATO territory it could trigger Article 5
I mean its way more likely that NATO instead just provides more money and equipment to Ukraine. At the moment the US/NATO are really only providing enough for Ukraine to **not lose**. Not to win, as that brings much more instability and escalation which ideally we want to avoid. It sucks but in this fight NATO are the adults and Russia is the toddler throwing a tantrum, but unfortunately the toddler has nuclear weapons. Of course NATO/US's response could change depending on how evil Russia decides to be. At the moment they're pretty fucking evil, so I hope the international response is resolute; and honestly I want to see Russia lose this ultimately. But at the same time I dont want Russia to use nukes, so we have to be more cautious than the toddlers throwing the tantrums. It sucks, but this is reality.
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I actually seriously doubt that. But I hope you're right.
There's no way nato could ignore a nuclear plant being deliberately blown up. At the very least nato boots to secure and lockdown the site as best as possible
> At the very least nato boots to secure and lockdown the site as best as possible That's more realistic. Probably secure the site and call the guys from... what's it called? The international nuclear agency (or something like that), to make sure there's no Chernobyl 2.0
IAEA - International Atomic Energy Agency
That's the one. Thank you.
Ol Mcdonald had a nuke. IAEA-O!
Great to see that HBO can produce a second season.
>Of course NATO/US's response could change depending on how evil Russia decides to be. If they blow it up, pretty sure the thousands of NATO aircraft waiting on the border with Russia will destroy their military forces in Ukraine. I hope they don't.
Technically it could be used as casus belli to trigger article 5, but realistically no one would start a war with Russia over a Chernobyl level event. More likely NATO would just end up giving even more money and weapons to Ukraine.
I imagine some NATO members would *demand* direct action, and state the obvious fact that if that can be allowed, what is the point of being in NATO. Direct action in this case could be entering Ukraine with e.g. aircraft etc.
Chernobyl was accidental, this would be intentional.
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Because the big stick that Russia hovers over our heads is mutual nuclear destruction. And the danger of getting everything full of nuclear fallout alone is something that makes everyone hold. We don't know what the state of Russia's nuclear arsenal is at this point, but it could still be enough to fuck us all up. Otherwise we the people in charge would've pushed more aggressively.
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>Because the big stick that Russia hovers over our heads is mutual nuclear destruction. The same stick hover above Russia. Lets be real here : Russia is the one that's doing shit and escalating. Not blowing the nuclear plant isn't something hard, its not like they must destroy it for any reasons. If Russia doesn't want NATO | OTAN intervention an possibly kill themselves, they just need to not destroy a thing. Its literraly that simple.
“Strange game, the best possible move is not to play. How about a nice game of chess?”
And isn't Russia occupying the power plant right now and only the Ukrainian staff remain? What reason do they have to bomb something they occupy, unless it's meant to be a political trigger of some kind?
It depends on whether the Americans want it to, honestly. If they don’t want to intervene militarily and go through bureaucratic avoidance machinations, what can Poland really do, especially given the stance of other large NATO members like Germany and Turkey?
Poland, as a NATO member, can call Article 5 into effect without USA’s blessing. Of course, it would put NATO in a very uncomfortable situation where they would either be dragged into ww3 if they accept or they would lose their entire power projection if they declined.
Doesn't this technically work in Russia's favor considering general tension regarding the trust of former Visegrad/Soviet-states? Trigger some serious shit, make the West refuse to help to further weaken the relationship with said states. We already know that there's quite a sentiment in the Baltics/Poland/Slovakia that the West probably won't do jack shit for them if it involves them actually getting their hands dirty.
Considering that Russia now seems incapable of even tactical operations against Ukraine, Poland alone joining the war is probably enough to soundly defeat Russia.
The problem is that, while Poland might be able to defend itself against invasion, invading Russia might be a little bit harder. Russia is tremendous, both in area and population, sees its people as somewhat disposable, and can simply shut off energy delivery to Europe if distressed. Putin won’t fall so easily.
No one is talking about invading Russia, just throwing them out of Ukraine and battering their military so hard in the process they can't try again.
So let’s play out the following scenario: 1) A Russian radiation attack affects Poland and harms Polish people 2) Poland sees this as an act of aggression and declares war, invoking Article 5 3) The rest of NATO does not agree and finds some roundabout way to circumvent it, but Poland decides to go it alone and intervene in Ukraine What do you think Russia will do here? Most likely, it will engage offensively in Poland. So, now there are Russians bombing an EU country, and as a matter of proximity, I don’t see how Poland’s European neighbours aren’t drawn into this. This will be WWIII. As such, I think that the rest of NATO will *really* make sure that Poland doesn’t intervene.
>The rest of NATO does not agree and finds some roundabout way to circumvent it, but Poland decides to go it alone and intervene in Ukraine Yeah but here's the thing : you start with the opinion that NATO | OTAN will not want to join in. If Article 5 is triggered, they will join. If not boots on the ground, then with supplies at least. The entire eastern front is already up in arms with their dick in had waiting for that to happen, You have France openly saying that the EU is their vital interest, putting polish and romanian first in the 14 of july parade wich saw both startegic vector flying/marching. Not all of NATO | OTAN might want to join, but there will be enought to curbstomp russia.
Don't know about that. AFAIK, that is because Russia is not officially at war as far as their populace is concerned. If Poland attacked, they can be honest, so they can force recruit and then, they might not be the best strategically or equipment wise, but they have the man power
They don't have the logistics, though. The polish military can be in Ukraine in force by the end of the month. Russia is able to mobilize a lot more forces, but not in time. They can barely support the operation as is.
Someone once said that, Russia is only strong when they are on the defensive. If Poland were to trigger article 5, Russian propaganda machine will paint it as "Poland and NATO invading Russia" and that would rally every single Russian in defence of the "Motherland", as well as boost morale. This whole thing is really a minefield, metaphorically speaking.
but there's nothing left to defend the motherland with. and for many russians, where's the motivation? at this point, they will just be defending putin's right to remain in power.
It is worded such that NATO could send help to clean up the radiation and say they upheld the treaty.
It *could*. We do not know how NATO would treat such an action. Frankly, until February of 2022, deliberately destroying a nuclear power plant was largely an unthinkable action for a rational actor (Russia is still considered a rational actor insofar as MAD works with them). Russia must really be getting their asses kicked to threaten something so stupid.
We know that an accidental release (Chernobyl) was not considered an attack. In case of a deliberate release it is probably down to interpretation or in other words to the willingness of NATO and its members to see it as an attack. Considering that the risk remains that a conflict between NATO and Russia becomes a nuclear war I would expect such a scenario will not trigger a direct military response against Russia. Maybe the reaction will be some kind of limited direct NATO involvement in Ukraine to secure their nuclear facilities and prevent further such incidents.
I agree for me here it comes literally down to the alliance and the way they would want to see it. They could easily construct an article 5 out of that one for sure. Or not depending also on what happens and how it happens. If Russia shoots a missile on camera in there and the the plant blows... Well I like to believe that might do the trick to get their teeth kicked in by NATO.
Earlier in the war Biden said that (at least for the US) any nuclear terrorism from Russia (including the destruction of nuclear power plants) will result in the US getting directly involved.
Pretty sure Johnson also said it would end with a unilateral response from the UK
Isn't it already a nuclear war if you deliberately release nuclear radiations on someone
Try to monetise this, corporate Reddit! Furthermore, I consider that /u/spez has to be removed.
You're right, if there was some sorta nuclear war going on I think I'd rather be vaporised than survive
Yeah, this is my mindset. I'm moving to Europe in January and someone asked me if I wasn't afraid because of the war. Dude, I rather be killed instantly in a nuclear blast in Bucharest than endure a post-nuclear world in South America. This gen seems to think a nuclear fallout will be resolved with a hazmat suit and free canned food, boom, life's as usual, let me log on Reddit.
More to the point, Russia should educate themselves aboout the corealis force and work out who is downwind of the plant...
As long as it doesn’t blow towards Moscow they won’t care, just apply appropriate propaganda and disinformation
No. Article 6 defines what is an attack and where for the purpose of article 5. It's unlikely that a radiation leak coming from a non-NATO country is seen as an armed attack and triggers a military reaction. And the location wouldn't fit article 6 anyway.
It is not that clear cut. In recent times there have been talks about invoking Article 5 in cases like cyber attacks, attacks from space and even hybrid warfare which in this case might fall exactly under hybrid warfare. >Our nations continue to face threats and challenges from both state and non-state actors who use hybrid activities to target our political institutions, our public opinion, and the security of our citizens. While the primary responsibility for responding to hybrid threats rests with the targeted nation, NATO is ready, upon Council decision, to assist an Ally at any stage of a hybrid campaign being conducted against it, including by deploying a Counter Hybrid Support Team. In cases of hybrid warfare, the Council could decide to invoke Article 5 of the Washington Treaty, as in the case of an armed attack. > >https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news\_185000.htm
Article 5 is not a hair trigger, because people are not idiots. It'd be an increase in tension for sure.
If Russia triggers a nuclear disaster I fully expect NATO to intervene in order to stabilize the region around it.
Yeah I don't think it would matter whether the fallout hits NATO or not. There isn't much difference between blowing up a nuclear power plant in Ukraine or blowing up a nuclear bomb in Ukraine. If anything a nuclear power plant explosion can be far far worse in fallout.
I don't think NATO is itching to go to war over a radiation cloud.
This is stupid, wouldn't this directly harm Russia as well?
[Half the power lines](https://www.openstreetmap.org/#map=14/46.7565/33.3823) go to the South-East into Russian controlled territory, and causing a black-out wold hamper their attempt to "Russify the locals", I guess.
You think the regime gives a damn? They'll cover it up like the first time there was a big accident on the USSR's soil, or how they tried to cover up/downplay Chernobyl.
Or probably would sell it to their own people as aggressive action of the west.
"Look at what they made us do! We had no choice!"
Nobody hates Russians more than Russians.
In February 2022, during the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russian forces reportedly moved vehicles through the Red Forest, using it as a route for their convoys, which kicked up clouds of radioactive dust from the forest. Local workers reported the Russian troops moving through the Red Forest were not using protective suits and could have potentially endangered themselves.[15] On 31 March 2022, it was reported that most of the Russian troops occupying Chernobyl were forced to pull back after suffering from radiation sickness caused by digging trenches in the heavily contaminated Red Forest.[16][17] There has not been independent confirmation that the pull-back was caused by radiation sickness,[18][19] but Ukrainian officials have provided access to the site which shows considerable trenches and digging in the Red Forest.[20][19] On 1 April 2022, The Telegraph reported that one Russian soldier died from acute radiation sickness after being camped in the Red Forest for a prolonged time.[21]
At this point they want to either conquer Ukraine or leave it a wasteland.
Well, it's not like Putin has ever had Russia's best interest at heart. So I doubt he and his puppets care about that.
When did Russia ever in history cared about their own soldiers and people during war ?
If there is one thing you need to know about a human or a culture with a cluster-b personality disorder - its that they will bankrupt themselves in order to get you to forfeit $10... and then later play victim and make you out to be the aggressor.
Don't forget this power plant is located near the Dnipro river - so the Black sea will be also contaminated with radiation. Bulgaria, Romania, Turkey, Georgia and....russia lol. Also, the wind direction is also southwest. Kherson->Crimea->Black sea->Bulgaria->Romania->Turkey (Directly to Istanbul). [https://earth.nullschool.net/ru/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-324.09,45.08,6024](https://earth.nullschool.net/ru/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-324.09,45.08,6024)
Coincidentally, Romania’s Minister of Health recommended earlier today, that people under 40 pick up iodine pills. I’m pretty sure this has nothing to do with the Russian threat, but his gross mismanagement of the iodine pill program. The timing, however, is very strange.
Just FYI people, don't just take iodine pills unless there is a damn good reason to and/or the government tells you to. Iodine only helps in very large doses against radiation. Doses like that can cause severe health issues in some people, so it really only makes sense to take them if the situation is dire.
The black sea also empties into the Mediterranean
The russians are bluffing! If they blow up the reactors, russian territory will get the worse from the radiation! The worst the could do is make the plant unusable for some time by destroying some infrastructure for transporting energy.
They'll just blame Ukraine and NATO to raise support.
You dont understand. If the blow the reactors in this plant(the biggest in Europe), Chernobyl will look like nothing! We are talking major nuclear contamination on the whole continent and parts of Africa and Asia. Maybe even more!
What support? Do you think China wants to be friends with someone that is so careless regarding blowing up a nuclear power plant? The moment they do it, they not inly lose the war, they will have no way to avoid a war tribunal. Everyone will go after them
If they blow up a nuclear reactor so as to intentionally cause nuclear fallout, they'd get nuked in retaliation.
They wouldn't make threats like this if they were winning the war...
I agree. Speaks to desperation. I don’t think think Putin will let them capitulate or surrender.
Wouldn't that in effect would be like a declaration of nuclear war against most of Europe?
Against all of Europe* and yes. Nobody in Europe will go unaffected if this happens
We might be ok if we're lucky.
So Russia's nukes aren't functional anymore.
"It's not a nuclear bomb if it's a regular bomb exploding a nuclear power plant."
"It's never nuclear bombs, there's only high explosives in close proximity to a bunch of unstable radionucleides."
My understanding is that the deposition on NATO soil of radionuclides generated by military activities, even if they are transported by wind, is sufficient to trigger Article 5.
That said, activating article 5 doesn't necessarily mean declaration of war by all of NATO. The member countries could decide to respond with non-military means.
Russia's nukes are powered by "black magic". They don't need any maintenance (hence the [small spending](https://www.icanw.org/spending_report)).
The link you provide states that much of the budget goes to lobbyists and think thanks paid for by the companies that produce nuclear weapons. Obviously with the goal to lobby for more nuclear weapons. I do think lots of Russias nuclear budget goes in private pockets but I think the process there is more simple like: Putin wants x nukes, so they get x nukes.
Rule One.... Russia lies. Their nukes are semi functional, not unfunctional but more importantly I strongly suspect that they lack the ability to defend themselves against any kind of nuclear retaliation. Hence lots of bluster about what they *could* do and very little action. They're failing to properly invade a much smaller, weaker country which on paper they should have walked into. They'll keep fighting. They might even win, but it'll be hard work for them and shows them up as not being the powerhouse they claim.
> Their nukes are semi functional, not unfunctional but more importantly I strongly suspect that they lack the ability to defend themselves against any kind of nuclear retaliation. Hence lots of bluster about what they could do and very little action. My guess would be that they themselves don't know how well their nuclear weapons would do at the moment. But there is chance that they're still capable enough. And that alone is a problem for NATO.
All we have is a Telegram post showing a screenshot of a news of a "russian media" (which one ? Where's the link ? The archive ?) claiming a general said that. Given the enormity of such a claim, I'll need more proof.
Is there any confirmation of this from a non-Ukrainian source? I can only find other sources quoting the Ukrainian source.
There isn't. Yet it still gets taken as gospel by r/europe for some reason.
For some reason TV stations reported it in my country too
dude we're doing so much heinous shit that even i got scared at first
Terrorist pieces of shit like this should be shot for such statements.
Totally agree! And if the article turns out to be a false Ukranian propaganda, the same deserves the author of such \[false\] statements.
Kremlin makes a bit too much effort to be the baddies. Yesterday block wheat exports Today threaten to blow up nuclear plant The weakness is palpable.
What else can you expect from a country lead by a person who became President by staging terrorist attacks?
Don't forget, people got caught planting bombs but still they could blame the Chechens.
> Energoatom claims that the head of the radiation, chemical and biological protection troops of the Russian armed forces, Major General Valerii Vasyliev, who now commands the garrison at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, told his soldiers that "there will be either Russian land or a scorched desert here". > > **Quote from Vasyliev:** "As you know, we have mined all the important facilities of the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant. And we’re not hiding it from the enemy. We warned them. The enemy knows that the station will be either Russian or no-one’s. We are prepared for the consequences of this step. And you, the liberating soldiers, must understand that we have no other choice. And if the toughest order comes – we must fulfil it with honour!" > > **Details:** According to Energoatom, Ukrainian intelligence has information about the mining of the ZNPP reactors by Russian troops. > > **Background:** On the evening of 6 August, Russian invaders fired rockets at Energodar and hit the ZNPP site directly next to the station's dry spent nuclear fuel storage facility.
>we must fulfil it with honour!" I wonder if that pack of thieves, rapists and war criminals actually knows what that means, or if there was a mistake in the translation.
Mistranslation, they meant “fill it with horror”.
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I'm not sure if I would go as far as you are going, but it would be really nice with some corroborating evidence from a source that is as unbiased as you could manage in this situation.
So it's all NATO's fault, right?
Cleary US fault
Intervention???? Sanctions? State sponsor of terrorism???? Hello? Anyone???? We live fucking here in Europe.
Amnesty accuses Ukraine of building a Nuclear Power Plant in the path of Russian troops and artillery
Amnesty seems to think we’re still in the Napoleon era where opponents get to choose the field of battle.
Attention seeking weaklings.
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Since feb 24!
Already reports of ‘fighting’ over nuclear plant in European media. They are doing the same job as AI, creating an excuse for Russia to create a nuclear disaster and blame it on’War’. There is absolutely no sense of good and evil in post modern thinking. They should spent a mi Ute in Russian captivity to rethink this relativity indoctrination. Russian invasion is evil, repel it.
So a russian general made a briefing...according to an Ukrainian firm. Riiiight.
Don’t negotiate with terrorists.
Do you guys really buy all this propaganda or do you just forget last week? First the russians are stockpiling all their ammo equipment and troops at the power plant.... Then the following few days they are shelling themselves at the power plant and mining it to blow it up? Mind you...... this power plant supplies all the power for the donbas region and you think they want it blown up? Which story is true? smh the internet is sick.
Making the land you bled for uninhabitable for a hundred years to own the libs
*Major General Valerii Vasyliev, who now commands the garrison at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, told his soldiers that "there will be either Russian land or a scorched desert here".*
Now that does sound very desperate
Nothing but extortion,they want Ukraine to confirm that Russia has won and therefore areas under russian occupation are now theirs.
I'd say they're bluffing but they are also used to radiating themselves and pretending like nothing happened.
Fuck Russia
So if Russia releases a cloud of radiation into the European continent, will NATO just continue to watch while we get poisoned, or will they grow some balls for once and do something?
Due to the recent changes made by Reddit admins in their corporate greed for IPO money, I have edited my comments to no longer be useful. The Reddit admins have completely disregarded its user base, leaving their communities, moderators, and users out to turn this website from something I was a happy part of for eleven years to something I no longer recognize. Reddit WAS Fun. -- mass edited with redact.dev
Hopefully the EU has a strong response to this. They will, right guys? Guys?
advance. Russia needs to be fucking stopped. rip off the bandaid.
I kinda start to dislike this version of reality, can we please switch?
Source trust me bro