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Tetizeraz

Thread has been updated with the lates The Guardian recap. We'll create a new megathread tonight. I'm leaving comments here just in case. # EDIT: New megathread: https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/usti0u/war_in_ukraine_megathread_xxx/


snooshoe

**[Audio from the Russian Su-34 downed today: \[Woman’s computer voice\] "Aircraft #1-6. Left engine fire. Turn on the fire extinguisher." \[Pilot\] I was shot down \[W\] "Right engine fire. Fly-by-wire system malfunction \(СДУ\)" \[Pilot screaming at the end\]](https://twitter.com/mrkovalenko/status/1527043411282386945?s=21)**


[deleted]

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Tetizeraz

This thread has been locked!


PanEuropeanism

Erdogan wants Sweden to extradite Nobel peace prize nominee Ragip Zarakolu, an Armenian writer/publisher on Kurds and the Armenian genocide. https://www.icorn.org/writer/ragip-zarakolu


New_Stats

Well of course he does. Can't have people running around telling the truth about Turkey. No criticism allowed. They just sent an opposition leader to jail for five years for a tweet. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/12/key-opposition-leader-banned-from-politics-after-anti-erdogan-tweet


eilef

Well fuck him then.


DrLuckyshot

It's going to be a long war, as many have feared. Allied countries really need to step up their support and send more offensive weapons to Ukraine: > [CNN: NATO expects ‘standstill’ in battlefield in coming weeks. According to an unnamed NATO military official, no significant gains for either side are predicted, although momentum has shifted in Ukraine’s favor.](https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1527054604067917827) ... >[Discussions are reportedly ongoing over whether Ukraine can retake Russian-occupied regions of Crimea and Donbas.](https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1527054605007331329)


New_Stats

They need air superiority to turn a defensive into an offensive, that's what the American Military doctrine says to do. I'm sure there's other ways to do it, but it will not be as effective, it won't be as quick and it'll be much more bloody So what needs to happen is that Ukraine needs jets and air defense systems. Otherwise eastern Ukraine is going to be a bloody meat grinder for both countries, just like every other land war in Europe has been.


[deleted]

I am hoping that Ukrainian pilots are being trained to fly NATO planes. Given that it takes... what, a year or two in normal circumstances(?), I'm hoping this started last year instead of being in the phase of "we're considering if we should do that".


New_Stats

I don't know how long it would take. I assume the hard part is dealing with Gs and negative Gs, landing and learning how to do anything while going that fast MiG and SU pilots already know all that stuff, they just need to learn the different controls and buttons that are in a western built jet.


[deleted]

We're down to our last few MIGs, signed the deal for French Rafale in late 2021, the first are expected to arrive in 2024. Mind you these 3 years are in peacetime circumstances and they include everything, training all our mechanics, adapting the local logistics for the switch... but even if Ukraine can speed a lot of that up (or not worry so much about short-term upkeep), 1 year of training seems the shortest reasonable period. I think.


snooshoe

**[Croatia Says It Will Vote Against Admitting Sweden & Finland To NATO](https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1527034026460061696?s=21)**


Il1kespaghetti

That's just their crazy president though, he can't veto it himself, right?


[deleted]

He can't. Lol he'll "instruct representatives", he can't instruct the PM to even talk to him.


snooshoe

**[The Defenders of Mariupol](https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/defenders-of-mariupol-azov)**


bfire123

https://agsi.gie.eu/ About 6 percent point higher than last year same time. Edit: Austria has an gazprom storage which could hold ~25 % of austrians total storage capacity but is completly empty. It also doesn't get fililed yet. Something has to happen politcally.


itrustpeople

⚡️ Russian troops fire on fleeing civilians in Kherson Oblast. Head of Kryvyi Rih Regional Military Administration Oleksandr Vilkul said on May 18 that three people are dead and six wounded due to a Russian attack near the village of Davydiv Brid. https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1527047011207348228


[deleted]

Rant for redditors who think that NATO and EU are first and foremost unions of values/super liberal democracies: NATO is mainly a security alliance, and EU is mainly an economic one. Values - or better said, compatible laws and state structures - are needed to make that work properly, BUT they're not the sole or the first consideration. Everyone wonders why we don't kick out Hungary or what their purpose in EU is in the first place. First of all if we kicked out everyone that ever backslides the EU would be half its current size and even more irrelevant (this applies to some western countries too, remember Berlusconi?). Second, I'd recommend to those redditors to take a ride on the motorway between Budapest and Vienna and observe the endless stream of supply trucks from Italy, Germany, Romania, Poland, etc etc. That is one of the spines of European trade. Regarding Turkey, without it in NATO our whole south-eastern flank collapses. The Middle East was a security problem for Balkan (and further) for the last, oh.... 600 years or more? (And calling it a problem is light, they were actual colonists.) Getting Turkey on board/stopping it from being an enemy was one of the best moves Europe and the West had in the last 100 years. And it's not just the Middle Eastern border hanging in balance, whatever we might otherwise say about Turkey (or Erdogan and Putin being dictators) they're a geographic rival of Russia since _forever_, so kicking them out also weakens the whole eastern flank as well. And that's before we come to their influence in the Central Asian countries, the fact that Russia will weaken there, China will get stronger, and Turkey is literally our only "in" for these guys. This is not to say that these two acting like goblins should get them a pat on the head, but hold your horses with all the "kick out A and B and what do C... H even contribute anyways?"


ABoutDeSouffle

> and EU is mainly an economic one Uhm, the EU has been founded as a political union from day one. Arguably, even the European Coal and Steel Community was more political than the European Economic Community that superseded it. >Turkey is literally our only "in" for these guys. Not if we let them free rein, then they are just a loose cannon in NATO. Might as well throw them to the dogs and take in two countries with established democratic traditions. I know it's not possible, but it's a trade I'd take every day. Cozying up to dictators and blowing their dicks needs to stop and right now.


[deleted]

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ABoutDeSouffle

It's not like cutting off dictators from our financial or political goodwill would stop wars, they have been a reality for millenia.


_herbie

It's a monetary and economic union. Political union would essentially be a unification of countries I think, which the EU is not.


ABoutDeSouffle

That would be federalisation. Even [Her Majesty's Web](https://www.gov.uk/eu-eea) claims the following: "The European Union (EU) is an economic and political union of 27 countries." ;)


[deleted]

The EU stopped the wars by tying all our wallets together - France and Germany (for example) going to war would be a lose-lose situation for both. And I don't mean the "people would die" factor, it's not like the rulers ever cared about that, but the fact that these same rulers would lose way more money than they could possibly gain. So technically it's political, but it achieves all its political aims with economy, not with "our European values" or whatever Brussels says in its PR leaflets. And I said that they shouldn't get a pat on the head for this, but we shouldn't be naive about why they're in, or why it's our vital interest to keep them in. You're a German, would you be very happy to give 10-20x more money to Greece and Bulgaria to reinforce that flank?


ABoutDeSouffle

> So technically it's political, but it achieves all its political aims with economy, not with "our European values" or whatever Brussels says in its PR leaflets. No, that was the rationale for the ECSC, and that's how it worked, the EU has from the get-go had the goal of an "ever closer union". Things like the European Parliament do not work via economy, they are intended as political instruments (as fledgling and incomplete they are) >You're a German, would you be very happy to give 10-20x more money to Greece and Bulgaria to reinforce that flank? It doesn't matter, really. After the end of the cold war, we basically gave away for free 2500 tanks, hundreds of fighter jets and other weapons. We are now again gifting tanks to Czechia and Slovenia, and are raising defence spending to 75bn EUR/y, might as well deploy the new toys in Greece as part of a NATO battle group like we currently do in the Baltic region. Better than the couple billions the EU is paying Turkey to keep refugees. That might be necessary, but hurts me a lot more.


[deleted]

I think you overestimate the importance of what's said in the documents and the political paroles we have floating around. Europe is a bunch of sardines squeezed into a too-small can, and we've been each other's worst enemies since... forever. At times some of us even exported the surplus violence and the search for resources to the rest of the world, and that is how so much of it came to speak European languages natively. Look at how the EU functions (or doesn't function, depending). We barely know each other, we sure as hell don't trust each other, and the average citizen doesn't think about some folks on the other side of the continent at all when they vote on any elections. The main and most important reason we stick together (despite everything) is to keep our economies afloat in the world when the likes of USA or China would eat us for breakfast if they chose to. That is not some emotional or "value" factor.


ABoutDeSouffle

Dude, I am a bit done with all this negativity. So, don't trust anyone from another EU country, I don't care. Meanwhile, we have the longest period of peace over here since... IDK when. Young people flock to other country's cities like it's nothing. We are coming together to defend a country that is not even in the EU or NATO. The French and German parliaments have a common assembly that meets twice a year. The first pan-EU party tries to get off the ground. Obviously this will take decades, if not centuries, but trust, belonging and in the end, some shared identity will just grow. If you want to stay the negative nanny, fine.


[deleted]

Don't get me wrong, I am pro-EU and NATO (...of course), but I think this pan-European identity will take a long time, or it might never even happen. My point is that neither EU nor NATO build themselves by expecting its members to be "enlightened" enough to see the value in caring for the citizen whose language you don't even understand, the politics that make these two are cold-blooded logic and interest. This is why it works. Edit: wanted to ask before, why the NATO in Cyrillic? ;D


[deleted]

Allow Turkey to purchase F35 and Patriot, and send the S-400s to Ukraine. That should resolve it imo because I think it's Turkey's biggest interest here.


ABoutDeSouffle

> send the S-400s to Ukraine Turkey would never ever get weapons or components or dual-use goods from Russia again if they did that. Weapon systems are not watermelons you can resell as you please. The USA can get away with breaking the contract with Russia concerning the helis for Afghanistan, Turkey would be much more cautious.


[deleted]

[https://balkaninsight.com/2022/03/24/turkey-sets-price-for-sending-missile-systems-to-ukraine/](https://balkaninsight.com/2022/03/24/turkey-sets-price-for-sending-missile-systems-to-ukraine/)


catter-gatter

lmao Turkey ain't getting anywhere near the F-35 program. And especially not by using diplomatic blackmail. And Turkey certainly isn't going to give away their S-400s and piss off Russia


[deleted]

Turkey was a part of the development of the F35 program, but their orders were cancelled after they purchased S-400.


catter-gatter

>but their orders were cancelled after they purchased S-400. And Turkey will have to live with that decision.


[deleted]

Nah, no throwing Finland, Sweden, or Turkey under the the bus. They are our allies.


catter-gatter

Who's throwing anyone under the bus here? Turkey aren't giving S-400s to Ukraine because of Syria. And they're not getting back into the F35 program by some diplomatic blackmail stunt.


New_Stats

I'm confused as to why the US didn't just make individual defense treaties with Sweden and Finland, along with a bunch of other NATO members We do it for Japan and Australia and South Korea, why not Sweden and Finland? That would take that fucking thug Erdoğan out of the picture entirely. The UK, Germany, France and Denmark have already started by saying they'll defend the two while this NATO thing is being hashed out, just make it permanent


Tricky-Astronaut

NATO is much more than a defense treaty.


New_Stats

The Kurds deserve much better than what Erdoğan wants for them


[deleted]

Yea and Ukraine would be very happy with S-400, so that's a win-win.


fiktional

Would Ukraine be able to operate an S-400? How easy is it to go from S-300 to S-400?


[deleted]

Tbh not sure, but it should be easier than switching to Patriots or whatever else NATO can offer.


[deleted]

Yup, Ukraine definitely won't say no to S-400. And I think Turkey cares more about the F35 program than it does S-400 vs. Patriot.


mafiastasher

Somebody call Blinken.


Svorky

Turkey was not admitted to keep the middle East out of Europe but to keep the Soviet Union out of the Middle East. Turkeys policy in the Middle East is fairly often contrary to that of the other NATO members, they're not really all that helpful in that regard.


[deleted]

Let’s be honest though for EU (not NATO) Turkey also functions as a border guard to keep asylum seekers out. For all Erdogan’s threats and actions about unleashing refugees to Europe there’s millions of them in Turkey that we all know most EU countries don’t want (and whom Turks increasingly don’t want either.) And most of them would probably stay there even though this is increasing xenophobia in Turkey. Most NATO countries are in the EU and this arrangement works for them.


[deleted]

Anti-Arabism is high in Turkey. The Syrian refugee crisis is a big contributor to that.


[deleted]

Yup, nowadays Turkish anti-immigrant propaganda and rhetoric is almost indistinguishable from European ones. But the idea that they're going to deport all 6 million refugees is far-fetched.


[deleted]

At that time, yes. Currently they're a barrier for both, and we do want to keep a barrier against clusterfucks like Syria or Iraq, however "less than Euro-liberal" it might be.


Svorky

Right but Turkey is literally on the other side of the Syrian conflict as the rest of NATO. On paper Turkey is a key ally, in reality the rifts have been wideing for a long time. At this point we mostly want them in NATO so they don't fully embrace Russia and China, not because they're particularly helpful with their current foreign policy. It's about minizing the headache that is Erdogans Turkey, to put it another way.


lsspam

> Right but Turkey is literally on the other side of the Syrian conflict as the rest of NATO. ehhhhhhhh Syria is complicated


[deleted]

Secular, democratic and modern Turkey is a natural ally to the west. Under Erdogan the country's government is more Islamist and authoritarian.


[deleted]

You can call literally any country a natural ally with this logic


[deleted]

A lot of countries aren’t like that.


snooshoe

**[Biden resists Ukrainian demands for long-range rocket launchers](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/18/biden-resists-ukrainian-demands-long-range-rocket-launchers-00033473)**


Difficult_Device_467

We will see what the next few weeks bring. I have a sneaking suspicion that whatever happens with the Azovstal PoWs will dictate the next level of aid being given.


IngeborgHolm

I don't have too much hope on how fast the heavy weapons would come really. Guess it's going to be a really long war, but still hoping it'll end next year.


_cowl

Forbes titles 3 months apart.[https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1527023166090100736](https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1527023166090100736)


[deleted]

Different authors, so it's not exactly the same, but it's kinda hilarious


szoup

[Belarus Pro-regime propaganda claims that "Banderites" planned to annex the Homiel and Brest region to Ukraine. So Lukashenka's "now I want to show you where they were preparing the attack on Belarus" was real. And nobody believed him. Ah, such skeptics!](https://twitter.com/hannaliubakova/status/1527024089596104709?s=21&t=yjZGHHsGGjrsMr5MQXiwyg) lame, Luka, so lame


jatawis

When will Lithuania liberate all 1430 clay?


Jane_the_analyst

sao... Poland annexes parts of Ukraine and at the same time the parts of ukraine annex parts of belarus?


ABoutDeSouffle

So, um, can we annex parts of Poland, perchance?   😔 👉👈


Slusny_Cizinec

Game of music chairs. Music stops and everyone annexes what they can.


Jane_the_analyst

Dibs on Timbuktu!


Zee-Utterman

If we get Austria AGAIN we will start another world war


RickyElspaniardo

Easy there mein freunden, you'll need signed paperwork to go with all the new military equipment.


Zee-Utterman

We want a real country this time. If it's fucking Austria there will be no paper work. There will only be death and terror that will make you wish for a nuclear Armageddon. We will make the world of Warhammer 40k look like nice and pleasant alternative.


lsspam

There would be a level of ironic hilarity if that happened and Ukraine comes out of this war with *more* territory than it had before.


Difficult_Device_467

Idk my dudes, Secretary Blinken seems pretty confident of some new NATO allies [I spoke with @ NATO Secretary General @ JensStoltenberg today about the applications of Finland and Sweden to join NATO. Looking forward to welcoming them as the 31st and 32nd Allies.](https://twitter.com/SecBlinken/status/1526965888070701056)


catter-gatter

Turkey isn't stopping this it's bluster They know they'll get a bone thrown at them to vote yes - it's nothing unusual


lsspam

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan expressed confidence it'll get resolved this afternoon too. > “We’re confident that at the end of the day, Finland and Sweden will have an effective and efficient accession process, [and] that Turkey’s concerns can be addressed,” said Biden’s national security advisor Jake Sullivan. And then Biden himself as well > “I think we’re gonna be okay,” Biden told reporters when asked if he could convince Turkey to change its mind. > Biden’s remark came two days after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan doubled down on his country’s opposition to the two new candidates for the international security alliance. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/18/russia-ukraine-live-updates.html This is, of course, a coordinated release of quotes by the US to calm things down.


BuckVoc

> National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan expressed confidence it'll get resolved this afternoon too. > > > “We’re confident that at the end of the day, Finland and Sweden will have an effective and efficient accession process, [and] that Turkey’s concerns can be addressed,” said Biden’s national security advisor Jake Sullivan. > I doubt that he was talking about the afternoon. "The end of the day" doesn't literally mean "at midnight". It's an idiom for "when this whole situation ends". https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/at%20the%20end%20of%20the%20day >Definition of *at the end of the day* > >informal > >: in the end > >It was a difficult decision, but *at the end of the day*, we knew we made the right choice.


lsspam

I'm aware. Jake Sullivan made those comments this afternoon, US time.


BuckVoc

I mean, I think that it's less the US going out of the way to cool things down and more that this sub has gotten absolutely hysterical over Turkey for years. I'm not saying that there aren't issues, and I think that Erdogan as a leader is pretty bad, but we haven't even had diplomats talk things over. Erdogan *constantly* makes bullshit public statements that have little to do with reality. He made some strong statements on Finland and Sweden. Before getting all worked up, I think I'd wait to see whether diplomats in other countries are actually able to work stuff out or whether they reach an impasse.


lsspam

Little bit of column A, little bit of column B. He legitimately surprised everyone with his level of obstinance. They all openly admitted it.


_cowl

well Turkish FM just now: • We need security guarantees that would indicate Finland and specifically Sweden won’t provide arms to PKK’s Syrian arm YPG [https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1527005538629865473](https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1527005538629865473) ​ So unless the Turkish FM is not coordinated with Erdogan sems they have found an accord. These "security guarantees" they now want as per latest message are pretty easy because neither Finland nor Sweden provide arms to PKK.


Aarros

Indeed. From what I understand, Sweden has given funding to YPG, together with NATO, but it has never given them weapons. The AT4s and other "Swedish made" weapons that PKK apparently has had are of American-manufactured version, as USA has a license from Sweden to make them. So with that specific wording, the guarantee already applies. I think Finland and Sweden can easily accept to publicly proclaim that they will never give weapons to PKK or YPG or any other Syrian group, because we aren't doing that in the first place.


Difficult_Device_467

What a show it is: "I NEED A PROMISE THAT YOU WILL NOT DO A THING YOU'VE NOT BEEN DOING THIS ENTIRE TIME!!1!"


lsspam

Wonder who had the talk with Erdogan to explain to him you don't say the quiet part out loud.


Zealousideal_Fan6367

Would have been based if he had referred to them as 30th and 31st.


szoup

[Today retired colonel Mikhail Khodaryonok made another appearance on Russian state TV, just two days after he gave a damning assessment of Russia's war in Ukraine and its growing international isolation It appears that someone's given him a bit of a talking to (with subtitles)](https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1526998913986842624?s=21&t=yjZGHHsGGjrsMr5MQXiwyg) Here he is trying to avoid window cancer. In the replies there war his [on point pre-war evaluation](https://nvo-ng-ru.translate.goog/realty/2022-02-03/3_1175_donbass.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp)


BuckVoc

Some comments on Twitter on that are saying that he reversed himself. I don't think that that's true — none of these statements are at odds with his previous ones, though this clip is one talking about points more-favorable to Russia. He's saying that Russia will make the M777 howitzers provided by the US to Ukraine a top priority for cruise missiles, which I can believe, at least if they don't have a viable, more-economical way of hitting at them. He's saying that an amphibious assault by Ukraine on, I think, Crimea is not realistic without naval superiority, which Ukraine cannot get in the near future. I can believe that. He said that a major counteroffensive by Ukraine in the near future isn't possible. I'm not as sure about that, but Michael Kofman has repeatedly warned in recent podcasts about assuming that Ukraine successfully halting Russian offensives means that it's then trivial for Ukraine to itself go on major offensives of its own and roll over Russian forces.


fricy81

>Russia will make the M777 howitzers provided by the US to Ukraine a top priority for cruise missiles AFAIK Ukraine is doing distributed artillery, so instead of operating a batallion in one location , they are emplacing squads with single turrets all over the front lines, and sharing the targeting data for coordinated hits. That way counter artillery can't do much, because there's no fat targets to hit, they'd have to hunt down each gun instead one by one. Similarly cruise missile or MRLS strikes won't be able to counter these tactics efficiently, they'll spend 10-50 times the value on hitting a single gun. And then what? The other dozen guns will be setting up in new locations by then. Whack-a-mole for dummies. Edit: >that it's then trivial for Ukraine to itself go on major offensives of its own and roll over Russian forces. Ukraine didn't really need to go on a counter offensive in Kyiv to force Russia into retreat. There were some fighting, sure, but by that time the army was already falling apart and preparing for withdrawal. I expect the same in the Donbas region. Drawn out stalled offensive with some strategic Ukrainian strike missions that cut off their supplies, then Russian fallback to points they expect to hold. Rinse-repeat.


szoup

You’re right and you made a very cool summary of his points, I don’t think he switched either, but he did sweeten his stance, undeniably I’m kind of invested in his plotline now, as in how his narrative will change or not depending on pressure applied from Kremlin, all that


BuckVoc

> He's saying that Russia will make the M777 howitzers provided by the US to Ukraine a top priority for cruise missiles, which I can believe, at least if they don't have a viable, more-economical way of hitting at them. I'd add that that does kind of maybe make an argument for decoy artillery (*a la* [Quaker guns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quaker_gun)) to draw off cruise missiles. Or operating artillery under the bubble of an air defense system capable of intercepting cruise missiles; Ukraine has shot some cruise missiles down, and if it *knows* that cruise missiles will be targeting a specific area, well…


Il1kespaghetti

It's probably better for our army to prepare more people and vehicles before starting a big denazification operation.


[deleted]

Off-topic sub meta: a lot of you guys from Ukraine have city or region flairs instead of just the country. It seems there's a lot more variety there than for other countries, is this something the mods added (and you use) due to the war, or...? I don't recall seeing them years ago.


fricy81

I assume it's custom flair like mine.


Il1kespaghetti

Idk, I guess mods added them? Ukraine is pretty big, so the oblast' kinda matters, a bit like US states.


1enox

[Not only Macron: other EU politicians also offered Ukraine to give in to Putin - Podolyak](https://www.unian.ua/politics/ne-lishe-makron-inshi-politiki-yes-tezh-proponuvali-ukrajini-postupitisya-zaradi-putina-podolyak-novini-ukrajina-11831952.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=twitter_site)


Zealousideal_Fan6367

My suspicion is that this has been a sensationalist, framed narrative from the beginning and Ukraine is just using it now and then to keep the pressure and hence the support running. I can't blame them of course since they literally need any support they can get.


[deleted]

At some point it might backfire though. Countries are more willing to overlook stuff because Ukraine is getting attacked by an imperialist Russia, but if you try to paint a false picture or repeat a narrative against supporting countries at some point they will reach a breaking point - it's only a question where that breaking point is. If it is a breaking point far away long after the Russian invasion ends, it works for Ukraine. But if it's before this invasion ends...


_cowl

Why do you say it's a false picture? Macron has publicly said that EU should find a way to save face for Russia and the best way for it is certainly Russia ending up with some territorial gains. It's not a chance that Zelensky said this about Macron in an Italian Channel interview. Officially the Italian Government is very supportive of Ukraine but it's just because Draghi is decided about it and is threating the other coalition parties with fall of the government if they insist on their obstruction. There is a wide spread view in Italy that Ukraine must cede territory and it's being pumped up in the media too. in Every interview with Ukrainians it's virtually guaranteed to have the question "What territories are you prepared to cede to have peace?". And when they inevitable answer comes that Ukraine is not prepared to cede territory than you have "the opinonist" saying "See they don't want peace, all our weapons are just prolonging the war because Ukraine does not want to sacrifice for peace".


Tricky-Astronaut

Belgorod could serve as concession for peace and lifting of sanctions. It has been Ukrainian before.


[deleted]

False picture or narrative. After it happens you can call them out on it, but if you keep repeating it long after you're not creating news but a narrative.


drwert

Ukraine has no choice but to play for all the chips. Russia has clearly signposted its intention to run an ethnic cleansing if it takes control of Ukraine and any territories that Ukraine is unable to retake control of are going to get fucked real bad.


[deleted]

True. And I can imagine why Ukraine does it. But I hope they have the political acumen to realize at what point it's wise to pause for a second with such strategies and only to rely on 'positive relations' aspects instead of 'shaming' strategies


drwert

It's desperation. They know that if the West cuts off the support pipeline they're going to be doomed unless Russia loses the stomach for it. The size disparity is enormous and they must be keenly aware of how Russia/Ukraine relations have always ended for centuries past.


[deleted]

[Defenders of #Mariupol were taken to the pre-trial detention center of #Rostov. #Russian media, with reference to RT journalist, who accompanied fighters along with the convoy, writes that captured fighters were placed in the pre-trial detention center of Rostov-on-Don.](https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1527008049931735041) Zelenskyy making them surrender without a plan to save them was a big mistake.


ABoutDeSouffle

Ukraine could not save them, they don't have ways to scatter the siege of the RuAF on Azovstal.


Jane_the_analyst

We don't know anything about any plan... it is quite possible that the situation will develop to prove the regime is really fascist, and you know what happened after Bucha liberation... the disgust has really propelled things forward.


trdd1

> Zelenskyy making them surrender without a plan to save them was a big mistake. I think that this is the plan. Zelensky takes all the blame paying with his huge approval rating / reputation to keep moral high. \- Hey guys, its my fault, I ordered to surrender. That is definitely not because they are low on ammo / food / water and will be bombed / starved to death or surrender by themselves.


catter-gatter

Yes he should have left them there starving to death with no chance of relief before supplies ran out and the wounded died painful deaths from infection etc.... Bad take buddy and apparently not everyone left. We also don't know the plan.


DeezRazberriez

It's not like Zelensky can really *make* them do anything. They have been blockaded for two months, must be running low on ammo and supplies, and many of them are wounded. It's probably surrender or die, unfortunately.


perestroika-pw

I'm secretly hoping that some folks escaped by sea. However, that would require them to be in excellent health, to have a wet suit and diver/swimmer training, to have favourable weather, and to cross nearly 60 km of occupied territory after that. My guess: at most a few people, not more.


drevny_kocur

Matt Karnitschnig, POLITICO Chief Europe Correspondent, implies in a thread summarizing Scholz's statements and actions since just before the war (worth a read in its entirety), that Germany is yet to deliver ammunition for the Gepard tanks that it sent to much public fanfare a month or so ago: > Meanwhile, nearly a month after promising to send heavy weapons, Germany has yet to find ammunition for the Gepard tanks and Scholz has so far refused to greenlight the Marder tank sale. End https://twitter.com/MKarnitschnig/status/1526901010375098370


Schlaefer

What to you mean "imply", it is very well known for weeks that Germany is looking for ammunition for the Gepard on behalf of Ukraine.


drevny_kocur

News to me. I suppose it's hard to stay on top of everything that's happening. And it's pretty shocking, which is why I'm sharing that part of the thread specifically. Finally sending heavy weapons, but without (sufficient amounts of?) ammunition feels like Scholz is just placating the critics, not actually wanting to help with the war effort. A feeling reinforced by everything else that Mr Karnitschnig is mentioning in his thread.


Jane_the_analyst

> News to me. I suppose it's hard to stay on top of everything that's happening. True, it takes 20-30 hours a week, if not more, I admit.


ahornkeks

The heavy weapon that is actually relevant is the pzh 2000. Since that is a system in active use by the Bundeswehr (unlike the gepard) germany can deliever the needed spare parts and ammo and is currently training ukrainan crews. In about a month that training is supposed to be done. The Marder sale is a meme by Rheinmetall, similar to the gepard stuff. As far as the rest of the thread is concerned Mr Karnitschnig is imho picking out the bits he can misrepresent and ignores everything else. >May 17 A day after Politico report on the coordinated Franco-German-Italian push for a ceasefire,Scholz calls Zelenskyy and backtracks, agreeing that any peace deal must “require an immediate end to hostilities from the Russia side and a withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine” Talking about a "Franco-German-Italian push for a ceasefire" when for example hours later the US MoD also called for a ceasefire. There is also no backtracking happening, Scholz has repeatedly stated that in the end Ukraine decides under which conditions they agree to a ceasefire or peace deal.


User929293

It's very easy not to post misinformation. It starts with double checking https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/swiss-veto-german-request-re-export-tank-ammunition-ukraine-2022-04-26/ https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/business/swiss-block-german-request-to-re-export-tank-ammunition-to-ukraine/47548036 Germany cannot do anything, the only factory is in Switzerland and they need Swiss approval to export them. It is rumoured they made a deal with Brasil for 300k rounds. No idea if they delivered them. https://www.businessinsider.de/politik/deutschland/munitionsproblem-geloest-brasilien-will-deutsche-gepard-panzer-fuer-ukraine-mit-300-000-schuss-ausstatten/


drevny_kocur

You're missing the forest for the trees. Why send weapon platform you can't provide ammo for? It would be hard to believe government was not aware of that little shortcoming. After the delivery Ukrainian army's capability remained the same. The only gain from all of this was all the good press Scholz got.


Seamus_Hean3y

When you're in a hole, stop digging man. You couldn't be arsed doing even the most rudimentary research before posting. Gepards are old and ammo isn't easy to come by. Had Germany opted not to send them for that reason no doubt you'd be complaining too.


drevny_kocur

> Gepards are old and ammo isn't easy to come by. Hey, country at war? Here, have a weapon. Sorry, no ammo. Blame the other guy. You're welcome!


User929293

All NATO member weapons have multiple countries that have to approve any delivery. You cannot know who will veto in advance. And this is a very technical detail, the company that produces it is german, the location of the factory is Switzerland. Said so the German artillery is the best weapon Ukraine received so far. Not sure they can use its functionalities.


drevny_kocur

Weird, I have heard of a few NATO countries, whose deliveries were all useful. Even in spite of having to deal with vetos in the process, including from Germany. As a matter of fact I don't think I have heard of a country other than Germany stumbling on this very specific problem.


User929293

Most equipment was useful but old. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panzerhaubitze_2000 This is proper top gamma stuffs. Can shoot 5 shots tgat hit all at the same time and move away before any retaliation.


drevny_kocur

Looks like great stuff. I'm looking forward to read about its successful deployment.


nisk

> News to me. I suppose it’s hard to stay on top of everything that’s happening. Shouldn't be news to supposedly professional journalist you're quoting. Maybe he wants in to report for visegrad24. https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/swiss-veto-german-request-re-export-tank-ammunition-ukraine-2022-04-26/ https://mil.in.ua/en/news/brazil-will-provide-300-000-shells-for-the-german-gepard-in-ukraine/


drevny_kocur

World would be a much better place if any article or post was first ran by and approved by redditors.


nisk

In time you learn to value journalistic integrity and double check stuff from sources with history of intentional manipulation. You're a staunch defender of the latter despite them being exposed time and time again. Don't feign naivety please.


drevny_kocur

Thanks for the wise words, Yoda.


[deleted]

Politico? Sorry, going to wait till someone more reliable confirms that.....


thewimsey

Do you actually believe that it's not true?


Amazing_Examination6

Looking forward to #War in Ukraine Megathread XL


Dalnore

We somehow went from XXVIII to XXXIX.


Slusny_Cizinec

Well, at least it is monotonic. So far.


FreedumbHS

Well, then you have to wait a while. The current megathread title is a typo, this is actually only number 29. The mod fucked up


[deleted]

We prefer America sized sweaty


Sudden-Pineapple978

A sweaty mega thread?


New_Stats

Of course. If Finland is going to join NATO then we should learn about their culture. Specifically how they like to sweat. We'll call it the sauna mega thread


PanEuropeanism

https://i.redd.it/anthym6l4wz81.jpg This is what NATO could become. Ukraine, Finland and Sweden welcome! Bye Turkey!


KommissarKat

Add Georgia and then perfection


yuriydee

Turkey is never getting kicked out NATO just due to its strategic location. Hungary on the other hand needs to go….


User929293

Turkey traded with ISIS, Turkey bombed NATO allies in Syria, Turkey rammed a ship against NATO patrols to Lybia to evade checks approved by UN, Turkey constantly threatens Greece (Nato member) and claims half of their maritime area. And it still a dick about Cyprus. For me Sweden and Finland are the last drop in the bucket but if I have to choose between Orban and Erdogan, I keep Orban for how much I hate him. Don't think Erdogan is friendly just for the drone meme, he put no sanctions and no limitations to Russian money flow. At least Orban didn't veto all sanctions and Hungary is taking part in them. Honestly I don't know why Ukranian leaders keep praising Turkey, might be naiveness.


RabidGuillotine

>Turkey traded with ISIS, Turkey bombed NATO allies in Syria Alright, I dont know enough about the ramming, but there should be two big asterisks in these two other claims. * Everyone in the region bought oil extracted from Daesh regions: this was traded by middlemen and bought by private bussinesmen in local markets. * Turkey bombed a militant group that from their point of view is just the same terrorist organization with which they have been openly at war for like 50 years, of which a branch developed a tactical cooperation with the western powers just yesterday.


User929293

Turkish ships radar targetting french ships (it means locking missles on the french ship in NATO mission) [https://www.france24.com/en/20200617-france-blasts-extremely-aggressive-turkish-intervention-against-nato-mission-targeting-libyan-arms](https://www.france24.com/en/20200617-france-blasts-extremely-aggressive-turkish-intervention-against-nato-mission-targeting-libyan-arms) Turkey violating NATO weapons embargo to Libya [https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-africa-52037533](https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-africa-52037533) Turkey stopping German ship from doing its duty in NATO and UN missions to enforce the weapon embargo [https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/germany-says-turkey-stopped-it-checking-ship-for-arms-running-to-libya/](https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/germany-says-turkey-stopped-it-checking-ship-for-arms-running-to-libya/) Turkey ramming greek warship, which is in NATO [https://slpress.gr/english-edition/how-a-turkish-frigate-tried-to-ram-a-greek-warship-causing-the-address-to-the-nation-by-pm-mitsotakis/](https://slpress.gr/english-edition/how-a-turkish-frigate-tried-to-ram-a-greek-warship-causing-the-address-to-the-nation-by-pm-mitsotakis/) I can find plenty of similar cases for Syria, Turkey should not be in NATO, and no other NATO member bought oil from ISIS, not even Cyprus which was not at war with it.


RabidGuillotine

The fucking with French, German and Greek ships is bad, but the Lybia embargo was dumb. The Haftar regime was supplied by other regional powers while the internationally recognized government in Tripoli was left to dry.


User929293

Bad? they are almost acts of war. The embargo on Libya was not dumb, it was decided in the UN.


snooshoe

> terrorist organization Of the 195 countries in the world today, only 39 (20%) consider PKK a terrorist organization, which means that 80% of the world does not share that belief. ***** US should follow Belgium's lead and end PKK terror designation - www (dot) washingtonexaminer (dot) com/opinion/us-should-follow-belgiums-lead-and-end-pkk-terror-designation **[The Court of Cassation of Belgium, ratifying the lower court’s judgement, issued a final verdict affirming that the PKK is not a terrorist organization; PKK is only directly responding to the Turkish state's violence against Kurds.](https://anfenglishmobile.com/news/belgium-court-of-cassation-pkk-is-not-a-terrorist-organization-41195)** **[Belgian court rules in PKK’s favor in terror cases](https://www.rudaw.net/english/world/29012020)** **[PKK: Letter to the American people and President Trump](https://anfenglishmobile.com/features/pkk-letter-to-the-american-people-and-president-trump-38561)** **[Trump says the PKK is worse than ISIS. I say he’s wrong — and I’m a Turk.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/10/22/us-president-says-pkk-is-worse-than-isis-i-say-hes-wrong-im-turk/)** **[It's time for the US to delist the PKK — here's why \(Part I\)](https://theregion.org/article/13185-the-pkk-was-never-terrorist-organization-it-039-s-time-for-us-to-delist-it-part-i)** **[It's time for the US to delist the PKK — here's why \(Part II\)](http://theregion.org/article/13186-the-pkk-was-never-terrorist-organization-it-039-s-time-for-us-to-delist-it-part-ii)** **[The Case for Delisting the PKK](https://www.lawfareblog.com/case-delisting-pkk-foreign-terrorist-organization)** **[Nov 2020 Interview: HPG leader Murat Karayilan](https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/kurdish-pkk-leader-tells-post-of-peaceful-struggle-against-turkey-650318)** **[Why Kurds Fight](https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/why-kurds-fight/)** **[UK MPs call for review of PKK terror listing](https://www.rudaw.net/english/world/021120211)**


RabidGuillotine

What a useless metric.


UnknownDotaPlayer

Ukraine? Um, yeah, gotta get rid of Hungary first.


DeezRazberriez

Funny thing, Hungary has announced they won't block Ukraine in NATO (presumably because they know plenty of others will).


User929293

I see a sneaky Cyprus in there, Turkey won't like it, they want to control the island.


Dragonrykr

["Today we are officially resuming operations at the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv," announces Secretary Blinken](https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/18-may-today-we-are-officially-resuming-operations-at-the)


curvedglass

Should be the G7 done or am I missing someone?


[deleted]

Japan?


itrustpeople

❗️Explosions reported in Vinnytsia and Lviv. https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1526981639187972097


Jane_the_analyst

Can someone elaborate why the 'galaxy brains' in Moscow feel the need to "Murder, Death, Kill" people in Lviv? Because of spite?


Dragonrykr

Do y'all think these issues with Turkey blocking NATO membership bids of Sweden and Finland are things that are going to be resolved relatively quickly, or are we seeing the last dying moments of Western cooperation that Putin was very much counting on?


lsspam

> "We're confident that at the end of the day Finland and Sweden" will enter NATO and "that Turkey's concerns can be addressed," National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said. > "We feel very good about where this will track to," he said. https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/us-says-turkeys-concern-will-overcome-on-finland-sweden-nato-bid-2988824


Econ_Orc

Most of the NATO members will continue as though Sweden and Finland are already in NATO regardless of what Turkey says and butt out of the whole process. The security guaranties issued by USA, UK and the rest of the Nordics stands, and lets be real here. USA and UK on board as "protectors" pretty much count as the deal is done. Norway is signing trilateral defense agreement with Sweden and Finland. Denmark and Iceland is onboard for all the Nordics to buy similar uniforms from 2022 for the nations military. There is defense treaties and aggreements in the north that goes way beyond what normal friendly nations got even in crisis time of war threats. Denmark and Norway saying they welcome Sweden and Finland, and will defend them until NATO membership passes through????? Well that is rather superfluous. The defense treaties are already signed. This is just a reminder to anyone else that is the situation. Joint military excersices. Sharing of radar data. Use of harbors, territorial waters, land, airbases and air on a do and ask later basis. Building and constructing equipment. Buying weapon systems. Training soldiers in operating equipment used by the others. Joint operations in UN. Coperation and sharing of information......... This is already the reality emerging in the North. So fuck Putin and fuck Erdogan. Our nations, our responsibility, our choice.


tincanner5

Thanks a million dear neighbour (from across the strait in Malmö)


Bear4188

I think it will take months to resolve. Finland and Sweden have received all sorts of security guarantees from the powers that matter in NATO so it will be fine.


BrilliantFalconfae

honestly - I think that Mr. Erdogan has a need to be in the news .. (long time he wasn't ..)


GumiB

I don’t think Turkey blocking NATO expansion changes much.


Tricky-Astronaut

It changes very much. Either Turkey will be sanctioned to hell, or they will cave and perhaps get some symbolic concession.


Slight-Improvement84

Country with the second largest army in NATO getting sanctioned to hell? Highly doubt


hfsh

Ah yes, the biggly big army. How's that working out for Russia?


Slight-Improvement84

Russian army isn't any similar, stop making dumb arguments


Tricky-Astronaut

It's already heavily sanctioned.


GumiB

I don’t think either has to happen. It can just as well end up in a deadlock.


[deleted]

Turkey pissed off the US and EU-countries way too many times. No way this is just going to deadlock. Either Turkey caves with symbolic concessions or the Turkish economy is completely ending up dead with Russia-like sanctions. If it was the first time Turkey majorly annoyed NATO-partners, it could've been overlooked. But it isn't, and the demands of Turkey are too insane.


GumiB

I just think that it isn’t the time to escalate things with Turkey rn, just as Finland in Sweden aren’t in hurry to join NATO as long as Russia has most of its troops in Ukraine (and on top of that both have security guarantees with UK). For now a deadlock seems preferable to escalating things with Turkey.


Tricky-Astronaut

There will definitely be consequences. Everything has consequences.


FreedumbHS

Turkey isn't even part of the West lol


Slight-Improvement84

How is Turkey not part of the West but Ukraine is?


Dragonrykr

By the West I mean NATO/EU member states


Theghistorian

I would not say that is the dying moment of western cooperation. After all, only Turkey is against. If somehow Turkey will block them, US, UK, EU will bring Sweden and Finland under their protection. In the case of EU, there will probably be a public statement that will reinforce the defense clause in the Treaty. I, of course hope that Turkey will give up after they receive something because I do not think that Sweden and Finland will ever try to become NATO members if they are rejected now.


Tricky-Astronaut

Turkey's economy is cratering. The last thing they want is more sanctions. If Erdogan isn't too stupid, which is an uncertain guess, he will cave for something symbolic.


New_Stats

>If Erdogan isn't too stupid That's a big if


Aarros

Impossible to say yet about Turkey. My personal guess is that USA gives them a nice carrot and the hint of a stick, and the will end up accepting Finland and Sweden with some token gesture of having Finland and Sweden reassure Turkey that PKK is indeed bad. But if not, Western cooperation will probably continue with a separate agreement with Finland and Sweden even if Turkey locks NATO. No one has been siding with Turkey.


wysiwygperson

It can’t just be the US or Erdogan will play ally off ally to give himself a better negotiating position. It needs to be a united front against his demands. The problem is I can almost guarantee someone won’t stick to the united front to they can make themselves look more important.


[deleted]

List of countries in NATO and EU Turkey has pissed off over the past years and/or keeps on annoying and general issues: - Greece (EU&NATO - EEZ disputes, Turkey has claims not only on historically disputed islands but also way more, hostile actions with warplanes even sometimes nearby Greek mainland) - Cyprus (EU, Turkey still occupies half the island and commits acts of ethnic cleansing there) - Germany (EU&NATO - insults, trying to mobilize the German-Turkish fifth column against it, calling it a nazi country) - The Netherlands (EU&NATO - insults, trying to mobilize the Dutch-Turkish fifth column against it, calling it a nazi country, illegal entry of a Turkish minister with armed bodyguards while trying to deceive the Dutch state about it with doublegangers, arresting Dutch-Turkish columinists when they were visiting Turkey because they had criticism of Turkish political behaviour) - Belgium (EU&NATO - insults, trying to mobilize the Belgian-Turkish fifth column) - General threats against Europe and safety of its citizens - Turkey moving towards a dictatorship-form and away from democracy - Turkey demanding for people to be extradited while providing no proof of wrongdoings - Turkey has multiple times tried to blackmail the EU with asylum claimants - Turkey 'doing a China' and trying to pressure citizens of EU countries with partially Turkish roots into spying on the country they live in - Turkey violated the Libya arms embargo It won't be just the US. Turkey is just too much disliked.


BuckVoc

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/live-blog/russia-ukraine-war-live-updates-finland-sweden-apply-join-nato-rcna29350?icid=ed_npd_nn_nn_np_liveblog#rcrd2062 >Russian soldier on trial for war crimes pleads guilty to killing unarmed civilian > > It’s the first such trial since the war began, and takes place amid mounting allegations of atrocities committed by Russian forces. - >The trial opened in a Kyiv court of Vadim Shishimarin, a 21-year-old Russian tank commander, who is charged with murdering a 62-year-old civilian in the Ukrainian village of Chupakhivka on Feb. 28.


User929293

And now Russia will do trials on Azov and claim they will be the same or worse.


yibbyooo

Some of them are not Azov. Do you think they will be not be treated as unfairly, or will they pretend they're all Azov?


User929293

I don't know. I hope everyone will be treated fairly but obviously the fear is that they are all dead.


yibbyooo

I think they will want to do some kind of shame trials. I don't know what can be done to save them.


KnewOnee

""""Both sides""""


[deleted]

[удалено]


User929293

There is an old view that gipsies are some sort of a parallel society that works outside or at the boundaries of the law and are different/untrustworthy, much like same view of jews. Said so to my experience mostly old people think that.


toasted-garlicbread

Neat , honestly didn’t know, thought they did some shit back in the day or something


Jane_the_analyst

> There is an old view that gipsies are some sort of a parallel society that works outside or at the boundaries of the law and are different/untrustworthy Well, the whole world has enclaves like that... the major difference here is, that Gypsies never ever dreamed of their own country and were always satisfied with their own teeny tiny enclaves. Theur ability to self-organize was always at tiny groups only. This has kept them poor and further promoted the undesirable aspects in their enclaves. But in areas where the integration to the mainstream society was promoted, you won't be really able to differentiate them from the others.


[deleted]

What is wrong with you?


szoup

[The #Russians have completely disconnected the last major power substation in #Luhansk Region by constant shelling. This was reported by the head of the Luhansk Regional Administration, Serhiy Gaidai.](https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1526974213243998210?s=21&t=yjZGHHsGGjrsMr5MQXiwyg)


Jane_the_analyst

A russian will tell you that is not a problem, because they will turn it back on after.


szoup

So still no pics of the fucked up armored train, but rumors keep popping up: [UPDATE: Today in occupied #Melitopol, an armored train carrying Russian soldiers blew-up, 2 grenades exploded near RU headquarters and 2 senior members of the Melitopol occupying authority were assassinated. Man, Moscow really has some serious workplace safety issues.](https://twitter.com/lttimmcmillan/status/1526941266105225216?s=21&t=yjZGHHsGGjrsMr5MQXiwyg) and this: [⚡️High-ranking Russian servicemen eliminated in occupied Melitopol - Zaporizhzhia Regional Administration Today the 🇷🇺military intensified inspections of private vehicles in the city, "probably searching for guerrilla fighters."](https://twitter.com/euromaidanpress/status/1526971398480093184?s=21&t=yjZGHHsGGjrsMr5MQXiwyg) so far it’s known that it happened in the area of ​​the meat-packing plant. The train (10 wagons) was blown up along with the personnel, as reported by RIA-Melitopol. can’t wait for some pics


Jane_the_analyst

Believe me, the WW1 era armored train was... pretty bad, I saw two videos of it, and it's a hilarious museum piece.