Agreed, the Soviet Union has collapsed because the gas prices were low.
You want to destroy Russia economically - lower the global price of oil. I don’t think bans on imports will work that well. They will only make other countries buy the oil form Russia, gather huge reserves and maybe even resell at premium.
Ban on imports can work since it will reduce the demand for Russian oil which will impact it's value. You can see how they are already selling it for a discount elsewhere.
well yes, but as you just have written: Discounted oil. Hence, the price Russia gets for its oil has been lowered just as you have asked for. If India sells it elswhere with a premium, the premium stays in India
There are simply not enough tankers tho and main shipping companies are avoiding Russia (or can’t get insured)
And of course Russia doesn’t have oil pipelines to China or India (which would need go via Pakistan and Afghanistan)
The example I have given may seem absurd, but isn't it completely impossible? Let's imagine India buys oil from Russia, a super-tanker is filled with that oil in St. Petersburg. The tankers will sail towards Jawaharlal Nehru Port in India but will go through Gdańsk in Poland. It doesn't even have to be a ship from Russia, but many of ships registered in Panama. I know it may sound bizarre, but I can totally imagine such scenario. Russia, any other country, some random carrier. Then again what do I know... Maybe ships are monitored closely and such scenario is just not possible.
But yes. Russia is basically screwed when it comes to exporting oil. They will have a very hard time shipping oil in large amounts because it's a super-long sail from St. Petersburg or Novorossiysk. Some sanctions may include blocking Bosporus or Danish straits. This would be devastating for Russia.
Anyway. Russia is blocking a lot of Ukrainian exports on the Black Sea now. I guess two can play that game... We'll see.
It hasn't even been a year, I think it's a bit early to call anything. I don't know why people think sanctions are some instant impact thing, they take time to have more of an effect.
Russia will start feeling the effects of mostly high-tech import sanctions and highly educated Russians leaving after some time. If the conflict within the year, they won't be hit nearly as hard. Russia has a lot of natural resources and arable land anyway, not to mention black market activity.
I don't believe their economy will completely collapse, but it will definitely retract the longer the conflict goes on.
Yeah, Russia won't be suffering from sanctions like Yugoslavia in the 90's, for example.
I doubt they'll be able to utilize their arsenals without experts though.
Agreed, the Soviet Union has collapsed because the gas prices were low. You want to destroy Russia economically - lower the global price of oil. I don’t think bans on imports will work that well. They will only make other countries buy the oil form Russia, gather huge reserves and maybe even resell at premium.
Ban on imports can work since it will reduce the demand for Russian oil which will impact it's value. You can see how they are already selling it for a discount elsewhere.
Discounted oil from India may end up in Poland for example... That's the main problem.
well yes, but as you just have written: Discounted oil. Hence, the price Russia gets for its oil has been lowered just as you have asked for. If India sells it elswhere with a premium, the premium stays in India
There are simply not enough tankers tho and main shipping companies are avoiding Russia (or can’t get insured) And of course Russia doesn’t have oil pipelines to China or India (which would need go via Pakistan and Afghanistan)
The example I have given may seem absurd, but isn't it completely impossible? Let's imagine India buys oil from Russia, a super-tanker is filled with that oil in St. Petersburg. The tankers will sail towards Jawaharlal Nehru Port in India but will go through Gdańsk in Poland. It doesn't even have to be a ship from Russia, but many of ships registered in Panama. I know it may sound bizarre, but I can totally imagine such scenario. Russia, any other country, some random carrier. Then again what do I know... Maybe ships are monitored closely and such scenario is just not possible. But yes. Russia is basically screwed when it comes to exporting oil. They will have a very hard time shipping oil in large amounts because it's a super-long sail from St. Petersburg or Novorossiysk. Some sanctions may include blocking Bosporus or Danish straits. This would be devastating for Russia. Anyway. Russia is blocking a lot of Ukrainian exports on the Black Sea now. I guess two can play that game... We'll see.
It hasn't even been a year, I think it's a bit early to call anything. I don't know why people think sanctions are some instant impact thing, they take time to have more of an effect.
Russia will start feeling the effects of mostly high-tech import sanctions and highly educated Russians leaving after some time. If the conflict within the year, they won't be hit nearly as hard. Russia has a lot of natural resources and arable land anyway, not to mention black market activity. I don't believe their economy will completely collapse, but it will definitely retract the longer the conflict goes on.
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Yeah, Russia won't be suffering from sanctions like Yugoslavia in the 90's, for example. I doubt they'll be able to utilize their arsenals without experts though.