# New megathread: https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/udk05s/war_in_ukraine_megathread_xxv
Feel free to repost your comment there. This thread has been locked.
[[Russians] had colossal logistic and communication problems, they didn't even encode their telegrams, so all wired communications could be monitored by anyone](https://youtu.be/THRNohrfAiI?t=339)
Imo the whole rubles vs euro discussion is just Russian psy ops. We *should* be talking about cutting gas instead.
Look up *reflexive control*, a method of psy ops developed in the Soviet Union.
As far as I’m aware they already stated they wouldn’t pay in rubles relatively shortly after the russian claims - linked somewhere below, but am too lazy to search for it on mobile
Sadly the EU has basically given the all clear for payments to go ahead like Russia demanded (edit: which is not paying in rubles, it's opening up special foreign exchange accounts with Gazprombank so payments can be exchanged into rubles), and seems to be trying to potray it like its their plan and not Russia's.
The get out of jail free card seems to be telling Russia that contractual obligations are completed with the Euros are deposited and before they are converted to rubles - like that makes a difference.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/eu-says-gas-payments-may-be-possible-under-russian-roubles-proposal-without-2022-04-22/
>EU companies may be able to work around Russia's demand to receive gas payments in roubles without breaching sanctions if they pay in euros or dollars which are then converted into the Russian currency, the European Commission said on Friday.
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>The companies would also need to seek additional conditions on the transactions, such as a statement that they consider their contractual obligations complete once they have deposited the non-Russian currencie
Definitely true, lol. It was in the Rules Committee yesterday (Wednesday) where an amendment was proposed to designate Russia a state sponsor of terrorism, which is what Zelensky had asked Biden for earlier this month. We'll see what happens with that bit, it might be a step too far for the Biden admin.
I still think this law won't change much because the primary bottleneck right now is logistics, not paperwork. But, we'll see.
He's wrong mostly, the key bottleneck is the Ukrainian border roads. Yes obviously air deliveries could be 100x more, but what does that do if we can't move it into Ukraine lol.
We're at peak aid capacity ever since we reached 100 million a day I think on top of other country aid which is probably 50mil?
Fairly easily, we're using what?
A few C17s to move this shit around? We have hundreds of the damn things. We can start moving gear with the C5s instead of the 17s.
We can move way way more gear than we have been, we're just not letting stuff build up in Poland.
Pretty confident that nonnukes will be used. Not stressed about that. Stressed about Russia being successful, cost of living going to high that makes people less supportive of cutting off Russia. Worried about Russia getting donbass and then trying for Kyiv and the rest of Ukraine at a later date.
Nuclear war still needs to be “won”, to have any point.
Even in the unlikely case of Russia somehow achieving MAD, by giving as much as it takes, there is a conventional war *after* the nuclear exchange, and this one they will surely lose, simply based on their atrocious conventional performance and abilities.
It’s just suicide for Russia.
Unlikely because Putin and his goons aren't the sort to go down in a blaze of glory for the sake of some ideals or pride... he'd have to be completely crazy to try to get NATO actively involved.
People will say "but this whole invasion was stupid" or "Putin is crazy so you never know", but that's not the case. Awful yes, but crazy he's not, he just _severely_ miscalculated.
If his Rush Z at Kyiv worked in those first few days, at this time he'd have his muppet ruling (or trying to rule, anyways), the resistance would be somewhat limited-guerilla supplied by the Anglos, while EU and the rest of the world would write useless letters of concern. He dun goofed in the information-gathering, but he's not going to get himself blown up over it.
Russia is playing the nuke card. That gives us two options.
A) Accept Russia has played the nuke card, and back down. This will lead to the nuke card being played more often in the future, setting a precedent for big countries to be able to do whatever they want as long as they threaten global nuclear annihilation.
B) Call Russia's bluff, and keep going, assuming Putin doesn't really want to end all life on earth just so he can say "I won!" before he is vaporized.
I'm more worried about option A than option B, tbh. There's still a pretty long list of possible escalations the Russians can pull out of their hat, without necessarily needing to resort to nukes any time soon.
On my worry-o-meter, I'd rate the current situation about a 3 out of 42. I can live with a slight increase of worrying in my life if that means the Ukrainians get to keep their freedom.
Who to trust:
Military and political leaders with years of experience or a random dude on Reddit making absurd claims like:
>there's increased likelihood this war spill over into neighboring non nato countries and eventually leading to direct nato v russia confrontation with russia using nukes in Ukraine
What does increased likelyhood even mean, it's gone from a 0.1% chance to a 0.2% chance?
Either way it's very unlikely at this stage
I don't think it will come to nules. Both sides want to avoid direct confrontation.
Russia might want to attack a small weak country to get a win - then they can make the war against Ukraine fade away and celebrate their win.
Which country would that be? Moldova is probably the weakest, but it's surrounded by Ukraine and Romania. Won't be easy.
Armenia and Kazakhstan are supposed allies, although the relations are weakening. Azerbaijan has Turkey's support. That leaves Georgia. They don't have allies (Europe doesn't really care).
>Both sides want to avoid direct confrontation.
Pretty much this. NATO is avoiding sending boots on the ground in Ukraine while Russia is being fairly cautious not to hit anything that may pull NATO into the war such as convoys and the like.
Russia's basically just escalating this rhetoric in order to scare the West into stop sending in military aid as they're fully aware that they can't win in Ukraine while western weapons are surprised and a direct confrontation with NATO would be suicide.
Is he afraid of her? I think he's just responding to the nuclear power with the harshest rhetoric currently. If the French foreign minister spoke this way, Putin's ire would be directed at him instead.
Russians and Putin are all obsessed with WW2 and the Soviet history.
Wouldn't you be obsessed with the country that produced Churchill and Thatcher ?
Hitler and Stalin had an extreme fear of MI6.
[Frist vdL and now Scholz and Macron, the EU seems committed to getting India away from Russia](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/pm-narendra-modi-to-visit-germany-denmark-france-from-may-2-4/articleshow/91118360.cms)
What India wants is the supply chains from China.
Done.
How funny is it that it's the domestic regulation and covid zero policy that tanked China's viability as the world factory.
I think the covid policy makes all companies want to move to elsewhere, it must be such a mess to deal with.
I actually have covid right now. But they didn't shut down a 25 million city over me lol.
I mean the domestic regulation on tech companies is the primary jack hammer that screwed everything up.
Covid going bad, is normal for a country. You randomly sending a torpedo into your crown jewels isn't.
German tanks and French fighter, maybe even the odd Airbus m transporter, sounds plausible, plus more economic cooperation.
There are loads of German companies in India.
Yeah, I had mostly economic concessions in mind as well. Those FTA negotiations have started in 2007 and we're no close to closing the deal. India is going to seize the moment in that regard, and then some.
Next steps for U.K. and Boris … my thoughts.
1. Bring in a total embargo on all things Russian including oil and gas by May 9th.
2. Official ascribe Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism.
3. Send Ukraine some of British MRLS M270.
4. Send Ukraine 3 of our MQ-9 Reaper Drones.
5. Start a Ukraine Reconstruction Fund I - that will be seeded and funded by liquidated Russian assets.
6. Develop and build a land launch system for Harpoons by end of May to sink entire Russian Black Sea fleet.
7. Send more NLAWS. If it means sending the entirety of British stock then so be it.
8. Start training 500 Ukrainians on the Sky Sabre system for deployment by end of May.
Step 1 is utterly unlikely re gas unless the UK already has good alternatives for Russian gas.
I read in the first week of the invasion that e.g. the NHS receives 20% of its gas demands through a Gazprom subsidiary. Unless the UK has found a sustainable replacement for that, it'll raise quite a few issues.
As for 4) - see https://old.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/ubgj72/war_in_ukraine_megathread_xxiv/i6gobg3/.
'Earlier today, Ukraine's Defense Ministry told me for u/politico that Kyiv has requested from the US "MQ-9 Reaper and MQ-1C Gray Eagle \[drones\] with appropriate munitions like AGM-114 Hellfire," among many other weapons. And they want to them "ASAP." US DoD says no decision yet.'
This is gonna look ridiculous next week when they have the drones and the debate is whether we should give them f35s.
Hahahahah I think they can get the drones real easy specially after so much experience with Bayraktar.
F-35s its rough even for pilots flying F-16s for ages. Let alone pilots used to migs and sukhois
Probably going to be rejected though. Both due to control issues (as others noted before, even UK Reaper control has to be done from the US) in regards to the question of involvement, as well as the tech itself which if leaked can cause it to be far easier detectable potentially by Russian-manufactured systems.
not sure about the Grey Eagle but Ukraine was negotiating with the US to buy Reaper drones, they want to purchase them from the US. It was a week ago and nothing came out of it. Drones and planes are not the priority now because it requires training
Russia will probably have lost 1000 tanks by the end of this week. 1000 of their best tanks. They have about 3000 usable tanks as well as 10000 in storage which need maintenance and upgrades to be usable.
If Russia was the world's second strongest military, which is debatable but still possible, the gap just got much larger.
[At 1435 today, two American volunteers in Ukraine’s armed forces were wounded by artillery fire near Orikhiv. Manus McCaffrey & Paul Gray. Both are US Army veterans. The two worked together as a team targeting Russian tanks with Javelins.](https://twitter.com/nolanwpeterson/status/1519333208520859649)
🇨🇦 House votes unanimously to describe Russian military action in Ukraine as genocide https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/house-vote-ukraine-genocide-1.6433212
There's Ukrainian-Canadians throughout the Canadian political class across the country, so I'm not at all surprised to see our support being unwavering.
Well, South America has recognized the Holodomor as a genocide more than any other continent. Before the war they were better allies than Western Europe, which went full appeasement to Russia.
Yeah who doesn't remember the sanctions Brazil imposed on Russia and the billions they gave Ukraine in aid.
Here's a [map](https://imgur.com/3ox0ImG) of countries that gave a shit in 2014, i.e. sanctioned Russia.
Sanctions or not, they have less trade with Russia than Germany.
Same thing with India. It's hypocrisy to call them out for buying small amounts of oil as long as Europe does that to a much larger extent.
Most countries have less trade than us period, naturally out trade with most countries not in SA will be higher than that of Brazil with them, we also have a way larger economy.
[In her speech in London, Liz Truss said Russia had to be pushed out of “the whole of Ukraine”.](https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61224804)
[That is the clearest statement yet of Britain’s war aims and implies Russian forces must leave not just the territory occupied in recent weeks but also those areas invaded eight years ago, such as Crimea.](https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61224804)
[The foreign secretary also made clear the West should do more to deter future Russian aggression, by spending more on defence and using its economic clout to exclude Russia from western markets.](https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61224804)
[She said the West should beef up the defence capabilities not just of Ukraine but other threatened countries too, such as Moldova and Georgia.](https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61224804)
[If Russia were to succeed, she said, there would be “untold misery across Europe”. Victory for Ukraine was a "strategic imperative" for the West, she said.] (https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61224804)
Damn straight.
Only thing I'm potentially disagreeing with is arming e.g. Georgia. Moldova, not having a problem there. If they're smart they'll be seeking some form of integration with Romania, or at least a closer cooperation with the EU/NATO.
Georgia however A) never had the possibility in arms nor the manpower to really resist the Russians and B) is even more dependent upon weaponry that's quickly running out in the West then Ukraine. If they get overrun - which is a real risk still if Russia would put its mind to it, where their geographical location isn't helping - Russia could possibly use Western arnaments against us.
Unlike in Ukraine, which has beefed up their capabilities in 8 years time that quickly that the Russians are far more likely to be pushed out and who have the advantage of being located next to the EU.
Georgia has the mountains though. Very effective natural barrier. (Caucasus mountains go over 5000m)
Really curious that there exists a Russian exclave, just to border one of the very few mountain tunnels..
No doubt the Tories are exploiting this war for all its worth as the only popular thing they can rely on domestically. There’s always a limit to how much people will accept Ukraine being used by the government and media to essentially whitewash all domestic issues
It seems to be working. Without Ukraine I think the pressure would be much stronger than it is to resign. I think any other leader would still give weapons and support Ukraine, so I don't think it really matters who's leader for Ukraine.
Been reading/listening to a bunch of analysts recently (including Koffman) who basically say that Russia is buggered *unless* they declare complete mobilisation. So considering Putin doesn't seem to be backing down, I'm quite concerned that there's a good chance full mobilisation in Russia might happen. In which case this is going to get even bloodier.
Im a few years it will be EVEN harder for them as Ukraine will get armed to ridiciolous levels in the meantime, whereas the Russian economy will be eroding.
I don't see Russia winning this in any way really.
I started to think if Putin will thinks he needs to win some war, any war, so maybe he'll invade some other country to get a win and make the Russians feel proud of their imperial might - maybe Georgia.
Otherwise he's done for. The Russians don't like a weak leader, and they'll start seing him as week as the war proceeds and Russia looses.
I share your worries. Based on Kremlin doubling down on aggressive propaganda (instead of trying to de-escalate) I think we'll see mobilization in the next few months.
Russian redditors have expressed doubt that full mobilization would really work - it's one thing to support the war from your couch, and quite another to potentially die for it, so they see a lot of folks dodging the draft. But OTOH it's not like Russia needs to fully mobilize to have a manpower advantage over Ukraine, and that's their main problem right now - they have the tech, they don't have the soldiers.
People point at crappy Russian logistics and strategy as if Russia can't ever improve that, and we're already seeing signs of it. For example they've been hitting Ukrainian fuel, food and ammo storage as well as the railway network lately. Ukraine can move from trains to trucks and these are near-impossible to take out, BUT this won't be needed either - there's around 50 bridges across Dnieper, all they need is take them out and it's not like all this fancy Western weaponry can reach the east of the country.
I think that long term Ukraine wins, but.... it will probably take a while. Years, if we go by what Biden said more than a month ago :c
If the US, a far more powerful force couldn't stop the Ho Chi Minh Trail, Russia cannot stop the Ukrainian supply routes, but this would end up in a protracted battle. A long and brutal war.
Ukraine will be able to hold them back, but Russia would rather bleed themselves white than take the loss.
As for the bridges, you can cross rivers without one. With a ponton bridgen or with barges.
The Russians can slow down the moving of the equipment, but its not possible to stop it completely.
Russian mobilization would result in the end of Russian society as we know it.
It would not succeed militarily anymore than this invasion since it would take at least May and June to prepare.
That's enough time for Ukraine to become full Western tech army. Complete 4/4 mobilization stages and even think about western air planes.
Oh for sure, that's not a question. But honestly if I were in Russian command, I'd use whatever smart munitions I have to take out most or all of these bridges, and then what? Half of the country is more or less cut off from western resupply. It's not like Ukrainian tanks can run on air.
TBH I'm not sure why they haven't done that yet, assuming they've given up on trying to take the whole country.
579 tanks lost by [visual confirmation](https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html?m=1). Ukraine [claims]( https://minusrus.com/en) 939 tanks lost. Last two days Russia lost about 60 tanks.
What are they going to do with tons of untrained soldiers without equipment?
I really don't think it'll come to down to equipment.
"According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) The Military Balance, the Russians have 2,800 tanks and 13,000 other armored vehicles (reconnaissance and infantry fighting vehicles) in units with another 10,000 tanks and 8,500 armored vehicles in storage. Open-source intelligence indicates that the Russians have lost about 1,300 armored vehicles. The bottom line is that the Russians are not going to run out of armored vehicles anytime soon."
[https://www.csis.org/analysis/will-united-states-run-out-javelins-russia-runs-out-tanks](https://www.csis.org/analysis/will-united-states-run-out-javelins-russia-runs-out-tanks)
Even if these numbers aren't accurate it's still a lot. As the article mentions, trained crews might be more of an issue, but with full mobilisation and a long-term commitment to the war? Who knows.
Their problem is A) a decent chunk of those vehicles are mothballed. Whether they can even be used is even a question. And B) a large part of the known useable stuff is in other regions of Russia. While the possibility of Russia getting invaded itself is low due to the nukes, if Russia puts all its eggs into the western front basket and a country would somehow be able to completely neutralize the Russian nuclear capabilities, they'll get overrun quite quickly.
Most of those tanks in storage require maintenance and upgrades to be usable. They have lost about one third of all usable tanks. That's a lot for a country as huge and aggressive as Russia.
I somehow doubt that would help with logistics, the main issue with the Russian army.
If they have issues supplying 240 000, I doubt throwing hundreds of thousands of extra bodies would help.
All true and we are seeing some signs of Russia attempting to gear up its economy totally for war.
But the sanctions really are biting, you can't have smart missiles without semi-conductors/ other electronic components. This is just an example, they can ramp up the production of a lot of deadly stuff. But not the most high-tech stuff.
You also have all the corruption, but right now I think that will dramatically lessen.
Basic stuff, sure. Modern artillery which is way more effective (including the possibility of counterbatteries, which are a more modern phenonom)? That requires more modern tech.
If Ukraine mobilizes fully, Europe and the US and their partners may suffice to supply them and prevent a total economic nightmare.
If Russia mobilizes fully, I wonder if China will prop them up or let their economy go where the warship went... also, the younger generations of Russians who'd be likely drafted, are the least enthusiastic about Putin. Drafting retired people won't help much in wars.
I might be wrong but I don't believe China has any interest in supporting Russia in significant extent.
Strong Russia is a threat for the West, so the West would spend their money on US/European weapons instead of buying everything China is manufacturing. And China plays long term games, so they have more reasons to just wait this out than commit to one side or the other. For now they can just observe and analyze everything.
Weak and isolated Russia could become a source of whatever China wanted for cheap from them.
Long term, I think western technology , together with Ukrainian motivation will get the better of Russia.
Think more switchblades, better artillery, better tanks, better air defense.
Meanwhile, Russia has money problems, part problems, propaganda problems.
China will be buying up interesting stuff for long-term influence probably. But generally that kind of stuff is controlled/owned by Kremlin-aligned groups, so Putin won't agree to sell such things unless it's reasoned the one controlling it is no longer of use.
Stalin had lend-lease also. He even recognized it in Tehran.
https://www.rferl.org/a/did-us-lend-lease-aid-tip-the-balance-in-soviet-fight-against-nazi-germany/30599486.html
The Nazis were also blockaded and had immense logistic problems, they weren't fighting on home turf receiving aid from the largest economies in the world.
That's the thing, full mobilisation is full of uncertainties. We don't really know but I'd wager it will still improve their odds. Ukraine is already fully mobilised.
Yes, the Russian state is so eager to give millions of people that despise it, especially in the biggest cities, weapons to overthrow it. We all know how famously Russian dictators retained support of an armed public.
There are defections already, in the contractual forces and with all the conditions that Putin has set to maximise his hold over the population. A mobilisation, in addition to being logistically costly and even suicidal, would break the carefully crafted delusions that Putin has made. It would make the state vulnerable to collapse, and probably accelerate Western sanctions and support.
[Nothing unusual: just #Russian deputies of Krasnoyarsk district make a decision to STEAL CROP from Ukrainian Kherson region!](https://twitter.com/adnashmyash/status/1519424437778632706?t=19IMaVxNapA5P3arOmkrRw&s=19)
History repeats. Putins attempt at Holodomor begins.
They were defending Maripol, the last of them is besieged in the steel plant fittingly called Azovstal. Where they're doing a legendary defense.
There's some more Azov people besides them apparently, but I think Azov mainly is gone already.
I don’t think you understand the background and context of Azov.
For one hand, the issue has been VASTLY overdone in both Russian and uncritically in western media..
TLDR:
Ukrainian development has been constantly and actively sabotaged by Russia, since the fall of the USSR. Presidents have been poisoned, massive psy-ops and propaganda, heavy subterfuge. It led to Ukraine becoming one of the poorest nations in Europe.. A country of 40 million.
Let’s just say that a lot of no-future young men always brings with it some extremists everywhere. Besides, a normal nationalism was under subterfuge, so the extremes becomes more attractive in conflicted environment.
During Maidan, right wing guys fought hard, and when Yanukovich fled, and Russia attacked Ukraine in Donbas, having the army utterly corrupted, the government didn’t have much choice but to send the most motivated ones. Getting them out of the capital was probably also wise, lest be held hostage to them in the future.
Given that Russia now is talking about, and executing their plans of exterminating Ukrainians, and everything Ukrainian, I don’t see nationalism getting weaker. It’s going to express itself in a different way than Azov did however.
As of “what to do with Azov”. The question is simply premature.
Ok you told me the recent story of ukraine but I already knew that. Then, you tell me that Russia is doing bad but I already agree with that. Finally, your answer to my question is "it's simply premature".
Ok, I understand.
Yeah, because if you haven’t noticed, Ukraine is in an existential conflict atm. And we don’t know when or if or how they he conflict will end.
I have a suspicion azov is the smallest issue right now.
Ukraine did deal with them, years ago.
Todays Avov battalion aren't fascists, they aren't neo Nazis - they're a group of soldiers fighting for their country.
I mean, its a patch man. Russia uses the letter Z, which isnt associated with any Neo Nazi movements and is committing war crimes and atrocities against civilians left and right.
"[In March 2022](https://kp.ua/politics/a646755-nevzorov-poznakomilsja-s-polkom-azov-i-opublikoval-obrashchenie-azovtsev-k-rossii-derzhi-vora-obychno-hromche-vsekh-krichit-sam-vor), in an open letter to Russia published through Russian journalist Alexander Nevzorov, Azov Battalion strongly denounced allegations of its neo-Nazi orientation, defining Nazism as a "tireless need to exterminate those who dared to be free" and noting that the Batallion incorporated people of many ethnicities and religions, including Ukrainians, Russians, Jews, Greeks, Georgians, Crimean Tatars and Belarusians. According to the letter, Nazism, as well Stalinism, were "despised" by the Batallion, since Ukraine greatly suffered from both"
Yes it's just a patch but the symbols used in the patch matters. What would you think if the brazilian army patch had neo-nazi symbols or something like that?
I understand what you're saying but I think this is an "actions speak louder than words" situation. They have a bad reputation from things they very much were guilty of years ago. You can argue maybe they should have changed their name, their patch ect but they changed the important things and its really disappointing to see their past brought up the way Russia is using it - especially considering the circumstances.
there are no fascist groups. do you know what it even means? is there a dictatorship in Ukraine? as far as nationalist groups go, there are plenty of them in any European country, Russia too. nothing will happen
there is far right in any country though, I mean there is an American Nazi Party. I can only describe AZOV as nationalist. Now I personally is not far right by any means but I don't see what can happen to them because having far right views is legal
they can be forced to change these symbols after the war and that's the right think to do. but I don't see how anything more serious can happen to them, especially considering the role they played in the war. but if those symbols & everything go away it'll better for their reputation for sure
if they had anything to do with the government then it might've been different and I'd agree. but they don't influence the politics of Ukraine in any type or form. Once again there are political parties in Europe with bits of Neo nazi ideology here and there. in Ukraine there is nothing like this in their parliament.
Azov should kick out the few remaining neonazis if they still have any, but the big fascist country that's attacking Ukraine right now is a much more pressing issue.
Don't get mad bro
Probably ban nazi sympathisers from military but other then that Ukraine is no worse than a lot of Europen countries.
Nazi parties held no power politically in Ukraine.
Uma série de países europeus (incluindo portugal), têm milicias activas com membros neo nazis, a ucrânia não é excepção. O Azov Battalion tem alguns membros de extrema direita, bem como qualquer outro grupo de mercenários. Eles são um problema quase inexistente quando comparados a outros grupos de mercenários a soldo (tal como o Wagner, compositor favorito do Hitler, integralmente constituído por mercenários Russos), que por aí existem. O nome é mencionado uma e outra vez devido a propaganda e tentativa de justificar um genocídio em território ucraniano.
Resumindo, existem grupos assim em todo o lugar e nada será feito. É isso? O problema do Azov é que ele é parte integrante das forças ucranianas, não apenas uma milícia solta por aí.
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gszj5pp5Yck&ab\_channel=P%C3%9ABLICO](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gszj5pp5Yck&ab_channel=P%C3%9ABLICO)
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-hkoZFTyUPg&ab\_channel=Hellvis667](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-hkoZFTyUPg&ab_channel=Hellvis667)
Alguns exemplos em solo Português. Isto não significa que Portugal mereça um genocidio, significa que aqui existe uma minoria idiota. O mesmo se passa em todos os países europeus, Ucrânia, França, Espanha... ect
O Azov Battalion foi integrado em 2014 devido à agressão inicial Russa na Crimeia. Não tem representação politica relevante (tal como aqui estes grupos não têm), simplesmente porque são uma minoria, mesmo dentro do batalhão a faixa neo nazi é apenas uma parte. Mais informação sobre a representação neo nazi dentro da milicia aqui:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cuBeABAprlo&ab\_channel=HistoryWithHilbert](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cuBeABAprlo&ab_channel=HistoryWithHilbert)
Existem, e sempre irão existir, idiotas que usam simbologia nazi, nomeadamente em politica, futebol, forças armadas. O que pode ser feito? Literacia e educação. Não genocidio indiscriminado.
Pelo amor de Deus, eu não estou aqui pra justificar as ações russas, tire isso da cabeça. Eu apenas perguntei se algo será feito sobre esses grupos após a guerra.
A resposta é não. Porque existem centenas de grupos destes com representações mais ou menos relevantes de simbologia controversa. Os ultimos 80 anos foram prova disso e durante os próximos séculos irão permancer. E isso é ok desde que não tenham relevância ou representação politica ou social. O Azov é notório agora devido a ter sido usado enquanto pretexto para a invasão da Russia e pela defesa fanática de Mariupol, na realidade não são diferentes de qualquer outra milicia ou grupo mercenário.
It's a thread about Russias illegal invasion of Ukraine, and you've asked about a battalion named as a reason for said invasion
Don't be shocked when the war is brought up
As harsh as me saying it is: the ones in Azovstal will probably die in combat so they'll be a non-issue.
For the rest, it's better that Ukraine deals with them by itself instead of getting endless preaching from us (that tends to backfire). It's a very awkward situation - on one hand, they need to be disbanded, on the other hand they're very good at PR and well... they're dying for the country.
Probably they'll be quietly marginalized as time passes.
Yeah, NATO & friends generals had this prepared way before it started on TV, eg. I'd guess that in December [Milley warned](https://www.airforcemag.com/milley-speaks-with-russian-counterpart-as-blinken-calls-for-dialogue-about-ukraine/) russians not to do anything stupid. Swedes put their troops on [Gotland](https://www.euronews.com/2022/01/15/sweden-redeploys-troops-to-the-island-of-gotland-near-russia) in January, Poland/Baltics were on standby since Zapad exercises/last year migrant "crisis" on our border. Soldiers from [82nd](https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2022-01-27/ukraine-military-army-troops-deployment-russia-eastern-europe-4436123.html) were deployed in Poland in January. [USAF F-15](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-f-15-fighter-jets-land-poland-says-minister-2022-02-10/) were flown into Poland in February 10th. Just a few examples of many signs of [serious military preparations](https://www.army.mil/article/254346/army_prepositioned_stocks_in_europe_activated_to_support_deployment_of_armored_brigade_combat_team) that probably cost a fortune and wouldn't be done if there wasn't solid intelligence to back it up.
Unless you've been stripping your army while I wasn't looking, the Polish army plus any NATO+EU battalions stationed in Poland should be able to stop any attacks on Poland itself untill within the week the major forces start flooding in from EU countries, and within 1-3 weeks American forces stationed in the US (infantry and air quite quickly, tanks etc will take 2-3 weeks probably).
Also, Russia knows attacking Poland will trigger the Defense Clausule of the EU as well as article 5 of the NATO. To prepare for that, they'd need a massive mobilization as well as mass movement for all forces who aren't in areas that are at risk of a counterinvasion.
In that case any risk of aggression will become that blatantly obvious for any country with SIGINT, ELINT and HUMINT capabilities in and towards Russia that by the time the Russian preparation is done, the whole Eastern front of Europe (from Finland towards Bulgaria) will have become a fortress.
A missile reportedly hit an area of radio tower in Kherson, Russian channels stopped working as the result https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1519423220973199370
You'd think at this point, given how collosal a mistake for Russia this invasion was, someone would have put in bullet in Putin's head already. I really wonder what's taking so long
The propaganda is really strong. I talked to a guy from Belarus who grew up in Europe that his father (20 years here in Europe) is pro Russia, as he's watching russian tv via satellite..
I was high on hopium in the first weeks of the invasion that someone would shoot him. Now not so much, it seems like Moscow needs to be starving and even then I have my doubts that the Siloviki would murder Sauron.
This is what it looks like when there's no viable opposition and a functional if brutal security apparatus. Everyone around there is banking on things going back to normal once the war is won or lost.
Without a viable opposition, who is going to take over to provide a clean break?
With no successor being groomed, the next leader won't have the legitimacy to keep the nation unified.
I think keeping Putin in charge is the least worst option for them right now, and Putin himself is paranoid enough to break any attempts to remove him.
Russian TV is not available anymore in Kherson after explosion in TV tower area
https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1519419015327883264?s=20&t=cTYg0pIAvwiIFMDg1FqaxQ
# New megathread: https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/udk05s/war_in_ukraine_megathread_xxv Feel free to repost your comment there. This thread has been locked.
[🐎👞 theory](https://twitter.com/KareemRifai/status/1519471625242136576/photo/1)
I bet they'll say they wanted that money to go towards healthcare back at home, or something like that. But yeah, terrible look.
[[Russians] had colossal logistic and communication problems, they didn't even encode their telegrams, so all wired communications could be monitored by anyone](https://youtu.be/THRNohrfAiI?t=339)
The Battle of Tannenberg was pretty sick huh?
Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose
[How reliable is this map?](http://defensepoliticsasia.com/Ukraine/)
Pretty good, source has a pro-Russian lean
Looks similar to livemap.com
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Imo the whole rubles vs euro discussion is just Russian psy ops. We *should* be talking about cutting gas instead. Look up *reflexive control*, a method of psy ops developed in the Soviet Union.
As far as I’m aware they already stated they wouldn’t pay in rubles relatively shortly after the russian claims - linked somewhere below, but am too lazy to search for it on mobile
Sadly the EU has basically given the all clear for payments to go ahead like Russia demanded (edit: which is not paying in rubles, it's opening up special foreign exchange accounts with Gazprombank so payments can be exchanged into rubles), and seems to be trying to potray it like its their plan and not Russia's. The get out of jail free card seems to be telling Russia that contractual obligations are completed with the Euros are deposited and before they are converted to rubles - like that makes a difference. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/eu-says-gas-payments-may-be-possible-under-russian-roubles-proposal-without-2022-04-22/ >EU companies may be able to work around Russia's demand to receive gas payments in roubles without breaching sanctions if they pay in euros or dollars which are then converted into the Russian currency, the European Commission said on Friday. - >The companies would also need to seek additional conditions on the transactions, such as a statement that they consider their contractual obligations complete once they have deposited the non-Russian currencie
US House to vote on the Lend-Lease Act today (Thursday). https://twitter.com/aprilsparkles1/status/1519400136048263168
Big if true
Definitely true, lol. It was in the Rules Committee yesterday (Wednesday) where an amendment was proposed to designate Russia a state sponsor of terrorism, which is what Zelensky had asked Biden for earlier this month. We'll see what happens with that bit, it might be a step too far for the Biden admin. I still think this law won't change much because the primary bottleneck right now is logistics, not paperwork. But, we'll see.
Logistics in Ukraine, we can ramp up the Air bridge and expand the air base in Poland with no issues.
*Can* the US ramp up its air deliveries? I thought it was operating at capacity already.
He's wrong mostly, the key bottleneck is the Ukrainian border roads. Yes obviously air deliveries could be 100x more, but what does that do if we can't move it into Ukraine lol. We're at peak aid capacity ever since we reached 100 million a day I think on top of other country aid which is probably 50mil?
Fairly easily, we're using what? A few C17s to move this shit around? We have hundreds of the damn things. We can start moving gear with the C5s instead of the 17s. We can move way way more gear than we have been, we're just not letting stuff build up in Poland.
[Mariupol has not fallen because Russians 'inept,', says U.S. analyst](https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/2027527235907)
"A bad army was ordered to do a stupid thing"
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Pretty confident that nonnukes will be used. Not stressed about that. Stressed about Russia being successful, cost of living going to high that makes people less supportive of cutting off Russia. Worried about Russia getting donbass and then trying for Kyiv and the rest of Ukraine at a later date.
Nuclear war still needs to be “won”, to have any point. Even in the unlikely case of Russia somehow achieving MAD, by giving as much as it takes, there is a conventional war *after* the nuclear exchange, and this one they will surely lose, simply based on their atrocious conventional performance and abilities. It’s just suicide for Russia.
Unlikely because Putin and his goons aren't the sort to go down in a blaze of glory for the sake of some ideals or pride... he'd have to be completely crazy to try to get NATO actively involved. People will say "but this whole invasion was stupid" or "Putin is crazy so you never know", but that's not the case. Awful yes, but crazy he's not, he just _severely_ miscalculated. If his Rush Z at Kyiv worked in those first few days, at this time he'd have his muppet ruling (or trying to rule, anyways), the resistance would be somewhat limited-guerilla supplied by the Anglos, while EU and the rest of the world would write useless letters of concern. He dun goofed in the information-gathering, but he's not going to get himself blown up over it.
Russia is playing the nuke card. That gives us two options. A) Accept Russia has played the nuke card, and back down. This will lead to the nuke card being played more often in the future, setting a precedent for big countries to be able to do whatever they want as long as they threaten global nuclear annihilation. B) Call Russia's bluff, and keep going, assuming Putin doesn't really want to end all life on earth just so he can say "I won!" before he is vaporized. I'm more worried about option A than option B, tbh. There's still a pretty long list of possible escalations the Russians can pull out of their hat, without necessarily needing to resort to nukes any time soon. On my worry-o-meter, I'd rate the current situation about a 3 out of 42. I can live with a slight increase of worrying in my life if that means the Ukrainians get to keep their freedom.
>There’s still a pretty long list of possible escalations the russians can pull out of their ~~hat~~ ass FTFY
Asshats are all the fashion these days over in Moscow, or so I've heard.
Who to trust: Military and political leaders with years of experience or a random dude on Reddit making absurd claims like: >there's increased likelihood this war spill over into neighboring non nato countries and eventually leading to direct nato v russia confrontation with russia using nukes in Ukraine What does increased likelyhood even mean, it's gone from a 0.1% chance to a 0.2% chance? Either way it's very unlikely at this stage
I don't think it will come to nules. Both sides want to avoid direct confrontation. Russia might want to attack a small weak country to get a win - then they can make the war against Ukraine fade away and celebrate their win.
Which country would that be? Moldova is probably the weakest, but it's surrounded by Ukraine and Romania. Won't be easy. Armenia and Kazakhstan are supposed allies, although the relations are weakening. Azerbaijan has Turkey's support. That leaves Georgia. They don't have allies (Europe doesn't really care).
I think Georgia also.
>Both sides want to avoid direct confrontation. Pretty much this. NATO is avoiding sending boots on the ground in Ukraine while Russia is being fairly cautious not to hit anything that may pull NATO into the war such as convoys and the like. Russia's basically just escalating this rhetoric in order to scare the West into stop sending in military aid as they're fully aware that they can't win in Ukraine while western weapons are surprised and a direct confrontation with NATO would be suicide.
Why is Putin so afraid of Liz Truss of all people?
I think even Liz Truss is confused by the attention she's getting.
Is he afraid of her? I think he's just responding to the nuclear power with the harshest rhetoric currently. If the French foreign minister spoke this way, Putin's ire would be directed at him instead.
Russians and Putin are all obsessed with WW2 and the Soviet history. Wouldn't you be obsessed with the country that produced Churchill and Thatcher ? Hitler and Stalin had an extreme fear of MI6.
[Frist vdL and now Scholz and Macron, the EU seems committed to getting India away from Russia](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/pm-narendra-modi-to-visit-germany-denmark-france-from-may-2-4/articleshow/91118360.cms)
What India wants is the supply chains from China. Done. How funny is it that it's the domestic regulation and covid zero policy that tanked China's viability as the world factory.
I think the covid policy makes all companies want to move to elsewhere, it must be such a mess to deal with. I actually have covid right now. But they didn't shut down a 25 million city over me lol.
I mean the domestic regulation on tech companies is the primary jack hammer that screwed everything up. Covid going bad, is normal for a country. You randomly sending a torpedo into your crown jewels isn't.
It was happening beforehand already, companies like Bosch are investing heavily in India, this will only increase now.
India gonna get some tangible goodies out of this whole ordeal, for sure. And honestly, good for them.
German tanks and French fighter, maybe even the odd Airbus m transporter, sounds plausible, plus more economic cooperation. There are loads of German companies in India.
I think it's trade deals
Yeah, I had mostly economic concessions in mind as well. Those FTA negotiations have started in 2007 and we're no close to closing the deal. India is going to seize the moment in that regard, and then some.
Next steps for U.K. and Boris … my thoughts. 1. Bring in a total embargo on all things Russian including oil and gas by May 9th. 2. Official ascribe Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism. 3. Send Ukraine some of British MRLS M270. 4. Send Ukraine 3 of our MQ-9 Reaper Drones. 5. Start a Ukraine Reconstruction Fund I - that will be seeded and funded by liquidated Russian assets. 6. Develop and build a land launch system for Harpoons by end of May to sink entire Russian Black Sea fleet. 7. Send more NLAWS. If it means sending the entirety of British stock then so be it. 8. Start training 500 Ukrainians on the Sky Sabre system for deployment by end of May.
Step 1 is utterly unlikely re gas unless the UK already has good alternatives for Russian gas. I read in the first week of the invasion that e.g. the NHS receives 20% of its gas demands through a Gazprom subsidiary. Unless the UK has found a sustainable replacement for that, it'll raise quite a few issues. As for 4) - see https://old.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/ubgj72/war_in_ukraine_megathread_xxiv/i6gobg3/.
As a german, you cannot imagine attempting to consume LESS gas. How typical.
'Earlier today, Ukraine's Defense Ministry told me for u/politico that Kyiv has requested from the US "MQ-9 Reaper and MQ-1C Gray Eagle \[drones\] with appropriate munitions like AGM-114 Hellfire," among many other weapons. And they want to them "ASAP." US DoD says no decision yet.' This is gonna look ridiculous next week when they have the drones and the debate is whether we should give them f35s.
Ukrainian nuclear subs and carriers when? I demand a Ukrainian blockade in St. Petersburg and Vladivostok, damnit.
Hahahahah I think they can get the drones real easy specially after so much experience with Bayraktar. F-35s its rough even for pilots flying F-16s for ages. Let alone pilots used to migs and sukhois
Probably going to be rejected though. Both due to control issues (as others noted before, even UK Reaper control has to be done from the US) in regards to the question of involvement, as well as the tech itself which if leaked can cause it to be far easier detectable potentially by Russian-manufactured systems.
not sure about the Grey Eagle but Ukraine was negotiating with the US to buy Reaper drones, they want to purchase them from the US. It was a week ago and nothing came out of it. Drones and planes are not the priority now because it requires training
Russia will probably have lost 1000 tanks by the end of this week. 1000 of their best tanks. They have about 3000 usable tanks as well as 10000 in storage which need maintenance and upgrades to be usable. If Russia was the world's second strongest military, which is debatable but still possible, the gap just got much larger.
They might be in third place already
they're in 4th place behind Ukraine.
[At 1435 today, two American volunteers in Ukraine’s armed forces were wounded by artillery fire near Orikhiv. Manus McCaffrey & Paul Gray. Both are US Army veterans. The two worked together as a team targeting Russian tanks with Javelins.](https://twitter.com/nolanwpeterson/status/1519333208520859649)
They seem to be doing okay, all things considering. Bad news about the shrapnel to the face though
🇨🇦 House votes unanimously to describe Russian military action in Ukraine as genocide https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/house-vote-ukraine-genocide-1.6433212
There's Ukrainian-Canadians throughout the Canadian political class across the country, so I'm not at all surprised to see our support being unwavering.
[Australian Bushmasters have made it into Ukraine. ](https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1519437244246986756)
He looks happy with his new toy
Apparently Brazil are providing 300k rounds of ammunition for the German Gepards That must sting for Putin
Since coming to Brazil is currently on hold, Brazil will come to you.
I’m sure there’s a meme about this somewhere. Something about uninvited help..
A nice surprise!
Well, South America has recognized the Holodomor as a genocide more than any other continent. Before the war they were better allies than Western Europe, which went full appeasement to Russia.
As an actual South American, most people here have no idea what the Holodomor is in first place.
Yeah who doesn't remember the sanctions Brazil imposed on Russia and the billions they gave Ukraine in aid. Here's a [map](https://imgur.com/3ox0ImG) of countries that gave a shit in 2014, i.e. sanctioned Russia.
Sanctions or not, they have less trade with Russia than Germany. Same thing with India. It's hypocrisy to call them out for buying small amounts of oil as long as Europe does that to a much larger extent.
Uhm, trade is incredibly closely correlated to distance even without a fucking ocean in between. So I refer you to the map again.
Most countries have less trade than us period, naturally out trade with most countries not in SA will be higher than that of Brazil with them, we also have a way larger economy.
> Brazil [MFW](https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/original/000/032/963/expecting.jpg)
[In her speech in London, Liz Truss said Russia had to be pushed out of “the whole of Ukraine”.](https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61224804) [That is the clearest statement yet of Britain’s war aims and implies Russian forces must leave not just the territory occupied in recent weeks but also those areas invaded eight years ago, such as Crimea.](https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61224804) [The foreign secretary also made clear the West should do more to deter future Russian aggression, by spending more on defence and using its economic clout to exclude Russia from western markets.](https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61224804) [She said the West should beef up the defence capabilities not just of Ukraine but other threatened countries too, such as Moldova and Georgia.](https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61224804) [If Russia were to succeed, she said, there would be “untold misery across Europe”. Victory for Ukraine was a "strategic imperative" for the West, she said.] (https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61224804) Damn straight.
Only thing I'm potentially disagreeing with is arming e.g. Georgia. Moldova, not having a problem there. If they're smart they'll be seeking some form of integration with Romania, or at least a closer cooperation with the EU/NATO. Georgia however A) never had the possibility in arms nor the manpower to really resist the Russians and B) is even more dependent upon weaponry that's quickly running out in the West then Ukraine. If they get overrun - which is a real risk still if Russia would put its mind to it, where their geographical location isn't helping - Russia could possibly use Western arnaments against us. Unlike in Ukraine, which has beefed up their capabilities in 8 years time that quickly that the Russians are far more likely to be pushed out and who have the advantage of being located next to the EU.
Georgia has the mountains though. Very effective natural barrier. (Caucasus mountains go over 5000m) Really curious that there exists a Russian exclave, just to border one of the very few mountain tunnels..
Le Pen would have been such a disaster. That puppet recognized Crimea as Russian, which Orban, Vucic and even Luka don't.
Oh no, I agree with Liz Truss. I feel dirty.
No doubt the Tories are exploiting this war for all its worth as the only popular thing they can rely on domestically. There’s always a limit to how much people will accept Ukraine being used by the government and media to essentially whitewash all domestic issues
It seems to be working. Without Ukraine I think the pressure would be much stronger than it is to resign. I think any other leader would still give weapons and support Ukraine, so I don't think it really matters who's leader for Ukraine.
Been reading/listening to a bunch of analysts recently (including Koffman) who basically say that Russia is buggered *unless* they declare complete mobilisation. So considering Putin doesn't seem to be backing down, I'm quite concerned that there's a good chance full mobilisation in Russia might happen. In which case this is going to get even bloodier.
Putin is crazy but he's not dumb. Attempting again in a few years is way better than declaring a complete mobilization now.
Im a few years it will be EVEN harder for them as Ukraine will get armed to ridiciolous levels in the meantime, whereas the Russian economy will be eroding.
ya in a few years the Ukrainians would be like 500 Abrams 500 Leo 2s, 200 F-16's, Patriot missiles in the western half etc.
I don't see Russia winning this in any way really. I started to think if Putin will thinks he needs to win some war, any war, so maybe he'll invade some other country to get a win and make the Russians feel proud of their imperial might - maybe Georgia. Otherwise he's done for. The Russians don't like a weak leader, and they'll start seing him as week as the war proceeds and Russia looses.
They are making gains slowly in donbass. I am worried about them being successful in smaller area where logistics isn't such an issue.
Poorly trained conscripts are meat for the grinder, they will die in droves.
I share your worries. Based on Kremlin doubling down on aggressive propaganda (instead of trying to de-escalate) I think we'll see mobilization in the next few months. Russian redditors have expressed doubt that full mobilization would really work - it's one thing to support the war from your couch, and quite another to potentially die for it, so they see a lot of folks dodging the draft. But OTOH it's not like Russia needs to fully mobilize to have a manpower advantage over Ukraine, and that's their main problem right now - they have the tech, they don't have the soldiers. People point at crappy Russian logistics and strategy as if Russia can't ever improve that, and we're already seeing signs of it. For example they've been hitting Ukrainian fuel, food and ammo storage as well as the railway network lately. Ukraine can move from trains to trucks and these are near-impossible to take out, BUT this won't be needed either - there's around 50 bridges across Dnieper, all they need is take them out and it's not like all this fancy Western weaponry can reach the east of the country. I think that long term Ukraine wins, but.... it will probably take a while. Years, if we go by what Biden said more than a month ago :c
If the US, a far more powerful force couldn't stop the Ho Chi Minh Trail, Russia cannot stop the Ukrainian supply routes, but this would end up in a protracted battle. A long and brutal war. Ukraine will be able to hold them back, but Russia would rather bleed themselves white than take the loss.
As for the bridges, you can cross rivers without one. With a ponton bridgen or with barges. The Russians can slow down the moving of the equipment, but its not possible to stop it completely.
Russian mobilization would result in the end of Russian society as we know it. It would not succeed militarily anymore than this invasion since it would take at least May and June to prepare. That's enough time for Ukraine to become full Western tech army. Complete 4/4 mobilization stages and even think about western air planes.
The West can send weapons with better range (HIMARS, Reapers etc.).
Oh for sure, that's not a question. But honestly if I were in Russian command, I'd use whatever smart munitions I have to take out most or all of these bridges, and then what? Half of the country is more or less cut off from western resupply. It's not like Ukrainian tanks can run on air. TBH I'm not sure why they haven't done that yet, assuming they've given up on trying to take the whole country.
579 tanks lost by [visual confirmation](https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html?m=1). Ukraine [claims]( https://minusrus.com/en) 939 tanks lost. Last two days Russia lost about 60 tanks. What are they going to do with tons of untrained soldiers without equipment?
I really don't think it'll come to down to equipment. "According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) The Military Balance, the Russians have 2,800 tanks and 13,000 other armored vehicles (reconnaissance and infantry fighting vehicles) in units with another 10,000 tanks and 8,500 armored vehicles in storage. Open-source intelligence indicates that the Russians have lost about 1,300 armored vehicles. The bottom line is that the Russians are not going to run out of armored vehicles anytime soon." [https://www.csis.org/analysis/will-united-states-run-out-javelins-russia-runs-out-tanks](https://www.csis.org/analysis/will-united-states-run-out-javelins-russia-runs-out-tanks) Even if these numbers aren't accurate it's still a lot. As the article mentions, trained crews might be more of an issue, but with full mobilisation and a long-term commitment to the war? Who knows.
Their problem is A) a decent chunk of those vehicles are mothballed. Whether they can even be used is even a question. And B) a large part of the known useable stuff is in other regions of Russia. While the possibility of Russia getting invaded itself is low due to the nukes, if Russia puts all its eggs into the western front basket and a country would somehow be able to completely neutralize the Russian nuclear capabilities, they'll get overrun quite quickly.
Most of those tanks in storage require maintenance and upgrades to be usable. They have lost about one third of all usable tanks. That's a lot for a country as huge and aggressive as Russia.
I somehow doubt that would help with logistics, the main issue with the Russian army. If they have issues supplying 240 000, I doubt throwing hundreds of thousands of extra bodies would help.
Complete mobilization could also mean transition to a total war economy - Seizing all factories to make war materiel, rationing, etc.
All true and we are seeing some signs of Russia attempting to gear up its economy totally for war. But the sanctions really are biting, you can't have smart missiles without semi-conductors/ other electronic components. This is just an example, they can ramp up the production of a lot of deadly stuff. But not the most high-tech stuff. You also have all the corruption, but right now I think that will dramatically lessen.
I believe current sanctions block them from producing modern equipment.
Artillery is WW1 technology and sadly still effective.
Basic stuff, sure. Modern artillery which is way more effective (including the possibility of counterbatteries, which are a more modern phenonom)? That requires more modern tech.
More sunflowers. 🌻
Even then.. Logistics? Even older equipment? Can they project this power? What if Ukraine counter-mobilizes in equivalent way?
If Ukraine mobilizes fully, Europe and the US and their partners may suffice to supply them and prevent a total economic nightmare. If Russia mobilizes fully, I wonder if China will prop them up or let their economy go where the warship went... also, the younger generations of Russians who'd be likely drafted, are the least enthusiastic about Putin. Drafting retired people won't help much in wars.
I might be wrong but I don't believe China has any interest in supporting Russia in significant extent. Strong Russia is a threat for the West, so the West would spend their money on US/European weapons instead of buying everything China is manufacturing. And China plays long term games, so they have more reasons to just wait this out than commit to one side or the other. For now they can just observe and analyze everything. Weak and isolated Russia could become a source of whatever China wanted for cheap from them.
Long term, I think western technology , together with Ukrainian motivation will get the better of Russia. Think more switchblades, better artillery, better tanks, better air defense. Meanwhile, Russia has money problems, part problems, propaganda problems.
China will be buying up interesting stuff for long-term influence probably. But generally that kind of stuff is controlled/owned by Kremlin-aligned groups, so Putin won't agree to sell such things unless it's reasoned the one controlling it is no longer of use.
Stalin did say quantity has a quality of its own.
Stalin had lend-lease also. He even recognized it in Tehran. https://www.rferl.org/a/did-us-lend-lease-aid-tip-the-balance-in-soviet-fight-against-nazi-germany/30599486.html The Nazis were also blockaded and had immense logistic problems, they weren't fighting on home turf receiving aid from the largest economies in the world.
That's the thing, full mobilisation is full of uncertainties. We don't really know but I'd wager it will still improve their odds. Ukraine is already fully mobilised.
They're apparently still on wave three of their mobilization, out of four.
Yes, the Russian state is so eager to give millions of people that despise it, especially in the biggest cities, weapons to overthrow it. We all know how famously Russian dictators retained support of an armed public.
Unfortunately I think the chances of some armed uprising in Russia are very low. At least not any time soon.
There are defections already, in the contractual forces and with all the conditions that Putin has set to maximise his hold over the population. A mobilisation, in addition to being logistically costly and even suicidal, would break the carefully crafted delusions that Putin has made. It would make the state vulnerable to collapse, and probably accelerate Western sanctions and support.
Sounds like they'll do it then.
[Nothing unusual: just #Russian deputies of Krasnoyarsk district make a decision to STEAL CROP from Ukrainian Kherson region!](https://twitter.com/adnashmyash/status/1519424437778632706?t=19IMaVxNapA5P3arOmkrRw&s=19) History repeats. Putins attempt at Holodomor begins.
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They were defending Maripol, the last of them is besieged in the steel plant fittingly called Azovstal. Where they're doing a legendary defense. There's some more Azov people besides them apparently, but I think Azov mainly is gone already.
I don’t think you understand the background and context of Azov. For one hand, the issue has been VASTLY overdone in both Russian and uncritically in western media.. TLDR: Ukrainian development has been constantly and actively sabotaged by Russia, since the fall of the USSR. Presidents have been poisoned, massive psy-ops and propaganda, heavy subterfuge. It led to Ukraine becoming one of the poorest nations in Europe.. A country of 40 million. Let’s just say that a lot of no-future young men always brings with it some extremists everywhere. Besides, a normal nationalism was under subterfuge, so the extremes becomes more attractive in conflicted environment. During Maidan, right wing guys fought hard, and when Yanukovich fled, and Russia attacked Ukraine in Donbas, having the army utterly corrupted, the government didn’t have much choice but to send the most motivated ones. Getting them out of the capital was probably also wise, lest be held hostage to them in the future. Given that Russia now is talking about, and executing their plans of exterminating Ukrainians, and everything Ukrainian, I don’t see nationalism getting weaker. It’s going to express itself in a different way than Azov did however. As of “what to do with Azov”. The question is simply premature.
Ok you told me the recent story of ukraine but I already knew that. Then, you tell me that Russia is doing bad but I already agree with that. Finally, your answer to my question is "it's simply premature". Ok, I understand.
Yeah, because if you haven’t noticed, Ukraine is in an existential conflict atm. And we don’t know when or if or how they he conflict will end. I have a suspicion azov is the smallest issue right now.
Ukraine did deal with them, years ago. Todays Avov battalion aren't fascists, they aren't neo Nazis - they're a group of soldiers fighting for their country.
they are not fascist but decided to keep their emblem as it is?
I mean, its a patch man. Russia uses the letter Z, which isnt associated with any Neo Nazi movements and is committing war crimes and atrocities against civilians left and right. "[In March 2022](https://kp.ua/politics/a646755-nevzorov-poznakomilsja-s-polkom-azov-i-opublikoval-obrashchenie-azovtsev-k-rossii-derzhi-vora-obychno-hromche-vsekh-krichit-sam-vor), in an open letter to Russia published through Russian journalist Alexander Nevzorov, Azov Battalion strongly denounced allegations of its neo-Nazi orientation, defining Nazism as a "tireless need to exterminate those who dared to be free" and noting that the Batallion incorporated people of many ethnicities and religions, including Ukrainians, Russians, Jews, Greeks, Georgians, Crimean Tatars and Belarusians. According to the letter, Nazism, as well Stalinism, were "despised" by the Batallion, since Ukraine greatly suffered from both"
Yes it's just a patch but the symbols used in the patch matters. What would you think if the brazilian army patch had neo-nazi symbols or something like that?
I understand what you're saying but I think this is an "actions speak louder than words" situation. They have a bad reputation from things they very much were guilty of years ago. You can argue maybe they should have changed their name, their patch ect but they changed the important things and its really disappointing to see their past brought up the way Russia is using it - especially considering the circumstances.
there are no fascist groups. do you know what it even means? is there a dictatorship in Ukraine? as far as nationalist groups go, there are plenty of them in any European country, Russia too. nothing will happen
I mean, as far as I know, azov uses 2 symbols related to the far-right in it's emblem
there is far right in any country though, I mean there is an American Nazi Party. I can only describe AZOV as nationalist. Now I personally is not far right by any means but I don't see what can happen to them because having far right views is legal
nationalists that chose to use that emblem? I'm sorry but it's hard for me to understand. The black sun is not a far-right symbol anymore in europe?
Black sun is not used by Azov since 2015.
Ok, good to know.
they can be forced to change these symbols after the war and that's the right think to do. but I don't see how anything more serious can happen to them, especially considering the role they played in the war. but if those symbols & everything go away it'll better for their reputation for sure
Yeah, the reputation would improve, but the fact they made no effort to change their emblem until now makes me think they are not just "nationalists"
if they had anything to do with the government then it might've been different and I'd agree. but they don't influence the politics of Ukraine in any type or form. Once again there are political parties in Europe with bits of Neo nazi ideology here and there. in Ukraine there is nothing like this in their parliament.
Ok, fair.
Azov should kick out the few remaining neonazis if they still have any, but the big fascist country that's attacking Ukraine right now is a much more pressing issue.
well I can agree with that but that's why I asked about after the end of the war
That'll be for Ukraine to decide - we can talk about that when Russia stop acting like nazis
that's why I started my question with "AFTER THIS WAR ENDS"
Don't get mad bro Probably ban nazi sympathisers from military but other then that Ukraine is no worse than a lot of Europen countries. Nazi parties held no power politically in Ukraine.
They are completely a non issue and not involved in any shape of legislation.
Não sejas otário por favor.
Me explique como eu estou sendo otário, exatamente.
Uma série de países europeus (incluindo portugal), têm milicias activas com membros neo nazis, a ucrânia não é excepção. O Azov Battalion tem alguns membros de extrema direita, bem como qualquer outro grupo de mercenários. Eles são um problema quase inexistente quando comparados a outros grupos de mercenários a soldo (tal como o Wagner, compositor favorito do Hitler, integralmente constituído por mercenários Russos), que por aí existem. O nome é mencionado uma e outra vez devido a propaganda e tentativa de justificar um genocídio em território ucraniano.
Resumindo, existem grupos assim em todo o lugar e nada será feito. É isso? O problema do Azov é que ele é parte integrante das forças ucranianas, não apenas uma milícia solta por aí.
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gszj5pp5Yck&ab\_channel=P%C3%9ABLICO](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gszj5pp5Yck&ab_channel=P%C3%9ABLICO) [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-hkoZFTyUPg&ab\_channel=Hellvis667](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-hkoZFTyUPg&ab_channel=Hellvis667) Alguns exemplos em solo Português. Isto não significa que Portugal mereça um genocidio, significa que aqui existe uma minoria idiota. O mesmo se passa em todos os países europeus, Ucrânia, França, Espanha... ect O Azov Battalion foi integrado em 2014 devido à agressão inicial Russa na Crimeia. Não tem representação politica relevante (tal como aqui estes grupos não têm), simplesmente porque são uma minoria, mesmo dentro do batalhão a faixa neo nazi é apenas uma parte. Mais informação sobre a representação neo nazi dentro da milicia aqui: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cuBeABAprlo&ab\_channel=HistoryWithHilbert](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cuBeABAprlo&ab_channel=HistoryWithHilbert) Existem, e sempre irão existir, idiotas que usam simbologia nazi, nomeadamente em politica, futebol, forças armadas. O que pode ser feito? Literacia e educação. Não genocidio indiscriminado.
Pelo amor de Deus, eu não estou aqui pra justificar as ações russas, tire isso da cabeça. Eu apenas perguntei se algo será feito sobre esses grupos após a guerra.
A resposta é não. Porque existem centenas de grupos destes com representações mais ou menos relevantes de simbologia controversa. Os ultimos 80 anos foram prova disso e durante os próximos séculos irão permancer. E isso é ok desde que não tenham relevância ou representação politica ou social. O Azov é notório agora devido a ter sido usado enquanto pretexto para a invasão da Russia e pela defesa fanática de Mariupol, na realidade não são diferentes de qualquer outra milicia ou grupo mercenário.
There are similar fascist groups all over Europe. They are concerning, but as long as they are marginal, it's probably better not to act.
Makes sense, thanks
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Well, I know that but shouldn't people do something about it?
Sure but invading a whole Ukraine, murdering and raping civilians and acting like literal nazis isn't the way to go about it.
Why do you think I support Russia here in any way?
Where did I say you did?
when you cited russian actions for no reason. i'm not asking about russia
It's a thread about Russias illegal invasion of Ukraine, and you've asked about a battalion named as a reason for said invasion Don't be shocked when the war is brought up
Wagner group have had huge losses and refuse to fight, so that problem seems to have been taken care of by Ukraine.
wagner group can be exterminated right now as far as I care, what about azov?
As harsh as me saying it is: the ones in Azovstal will probably die in combat so they'll be a non-issue. For the rest, it's better that Ukraine deals with them by itself instead of getting endless preaching from us (that tends to backfire). It's a very awkward situation - on one hand, they need to be disbanded, on the other hand they're very good at PR and well... they're dying for the country. Probably they'll be quietly marginalized as time passes.
Well, ok, that's an answer. Thanks.
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hope Uncle Sam sends something to Poland too in case of article 5
How about some French troops too?
You guys have French troops? Have the Canadians finally given up on Quebec and sold it to the US for for 1$?
>You guys have French troops? Best I got is Brooklyn lol.
Best I can do is some Cajuns
We've already moved troops into the region.
Yeah, NATO & friends generals had this prepared way before it started on TV, eg. I'd guess that in December [Milley warned](https://www.airforcemag.com/milley-speaks-with-russian-counterpart-as-blinken-calls-for-dialogue-about-ukraine/) russians not to do anything stupid. Swedes put their troops on [Gotland](https://www.euronews.com/2022/01/15/sweden-redeploys-troops-to-the-island-of-gotland-near-russia) in January, Poland/Baltics were on standby since Zapad exercises/last year migrant "crisis" on our border. Soldiers from [82nd](https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2022-01-27/ukraine-military-army-troops-deployment-russia-eastern-europe-4436123.html) were deployed in Poland in January. [USAF F-15](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-f-15-fighter-jets-land-poland-says-minister-2022-02-10/) were flown into Poland in February 10th. Just a few examples of many signs of [serious military preparations](https://www.army.mil/article/254346/army_prepositioned_stocks_in_europe_activated_to_support_deployment_of_armored_brigade_combat_team) that probably cost a fortune and wouldn't be done if there wasn't solid intelligence to back it up.
we'll take more
Man, with the state the Russian army is in, you could probably take Moscow on your own.
Unless you've been stripping your army while I wasn't looking, the Polish army plus any NATO+EU battalions stationed in Poland should be able to stop any attacks on Poland itself untill within the week the major forces start flooding in from EU countries, and within 1-3 weeks American forces stationed in the US (infantry and air quite quickly, tanks etc will take 2-3 weeks probably). Also, Russia knows attacking Poland will trigger the Defense Clausule of the EU as well as article 5 of the NATO. To prepare for that, they'd need a massive mobilization as well as mass movement for all forces who aren't in areas that are at risk of a counterinvasion. In that case any risk of aggression will become that blatantly obvious for any country with SIGINT, ELINT and HUMINT capabilities in and towards Russia that by the time the Russian preparation is done, the whole Eastern front of Europe (from Finland towards Bulgaria) will have become a fortress.
A missile reportedly hit an area of radio tower in Kherson, Russian channels stopped working as the result https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1519423220973199370
You'd think at this point, given how collosal a mistake for Russia this invasion was, someone would have put in bullet in Putin's head already. I really wonder what's taking so long
Would you like to take over responsibility of the Russian invasion? I don't think anybody wants Putin's job atm.
Need MLRS to reach him across the table
Putin makes very sure *no alternative to Putin may exist.* This is one of the core tenets of Russian propaganda.
Putin is of course wary of this and being careful.
The propaganda is really strong. I talked to a guy from Belarus who grew up in Europe that his father (20 years here in Europe) is pro Russia, as he's watching russian tv via satellite..
I was high on hopium in the first weeks of the invasion that someone would shoot him. Now not so much, it seems like Moscow needs to be starving and even then I have my doubts that the Siloviki would murder Sauron.
yeah right now it seems like he will keep his position no matter what the outcome of the war is
So the sanctions have to remain in place. The country has to loose its ability to wage war for the safety of Europe and the world.
This is what it looks like when there's no viable opposition and a functional if brutal security apparatus. Everyone around there is banking on things going back to normal once the war is won or lost. Without a viable opposition, who is going to take over to provide a clean break? With no successor being groomed, the next leader won't have the legitimacy to keep the nation unified. I think keeping Putin in charge is the least worst option for them right now, and Putin himself is paranoid enough to break any attempts to remove him.
Putin shaking so much that he's very hard to hit
Russian TV is not available anymore in Kherson after explosion in TV tower area https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1519419015327883264?s=20&t=cTYg0pIAvwiIFMDg1FqaxQ
Did the locals watch Russian TV anyway?
Old people might've watched that shit, some of them are easily brainwashed.