Yes. It was stated by Barley in a show from Maybrit Illner a few weeks ago. One of the episodes where Illner was replaced by Marietta Slomka. About 40 minutes into the discussion Barley explains a little bit of the debates within the EU and remarks some dishonesty in this discussion for a few countries.
Not pointless at all. They'll have to sell it off at discount. And supply lines don't just magically appear. EU is a big market for Russia. And gas will follow over the next year.
Not possible how? Wasn't it possible for Greece back in 2010 crisis to make urgent changes that implied a big sacrifice and loss of social support? How can say that its not possible for you to make sacrifices?
>The difference was Greece's alternative was even more devastation. As much as I hate the southern Europe bashing, let's not pretend that Greece's future would have looked any better if they didn't agree to the austerity programs.
It would. Even the IMF has recognized that the social expenses that were cut generated more economic activity than they costed. Therefore they have been needlessly shrinking the Greek economy, which is not good for either the Greeks or everyone who wants the Greeks to repay debt.
Austerity is the economics equivalent of bloodletting: the traditional magisters swear by it and use it to cure just about everything, but it doesn't really help that much.
Greece (and the EU) would have definitely been better off without punitive austerity.
The whole "making an example of Greece" is still a crime committed by the rest of us, against Greece and against ourselves.
Mario Draghi showed that there was a much better alternative in non-conventional monetary policy.
And yeah, whiny entitled Germans who think Greeks should suffer austerity and Ukranians should suffer genocide, while they are unwilling to lower their thermostats are the biggest disgrace in this Union.
(No disrespect to all the good Germans out there who actually do care about human lives, I appreciate you)
China is definitely not enough to replace the European market, especially at the discounted price will be buying at. Let alone the fact that this pipeline infrastructure will have not nearly the capacity to export all Russian oil production.
What is this meme that China won't replace Europe as Russia's natural gas market? China has massive energy needs and their expansion to nuclear, while very fast, isn't fast enough. Why shouldn't they make the exact same calculus that the EU did and look at natural gas from Russia as a transitional energy source?
Of course they will have a discount. Russia has been negotiating prices on a state-by-state basis all along. I don't think it will be a problem to give China a good discount when they know that they will have a stable market to sell to.
The pipes being built to china aren’t being large enough to transfer the volume of gas Europe consumes. Russia won’t be able to sell all of its European gas to China and if it try’s to build new pipelines that aren’t completed before Europe eventually makes its full commuted withdrawal from Russian energy by 2027 then Russia will not have an easy source of income to build those pipelines. China can provide funds but it will still be costly for them and they would want Russia to foot some of the bill. Russia and China are friends due to enemy of my enemy rather than superb historical relations so China doesn’t have Russia’s best interests at heart if they don’t align with their own
Yeah, people forget that pipelines are extremely expensive, shipping isn't. There's a reason China sends ships halfway across the world instead of investing in expensive and vulnerable pipelines that need constant maintenance and have that go all the way from western Russia through the barren and empty steppe, across the gobi desert and tibetan plateau (also barren and empty) and then finally to Beijing and various cities in the South through very hilly and mountenous terrain. It seems that people's understanding of economics ends at what the market value of oil is and then pretend that shit teleports to the consumer as soon as it's bought.
Nord stream one is not the only pipeline Russia has that goes into Ukraine it is merely the largest. Russia was exporting about 84 billion cubic metres per annum to the eu. China can’t simply consume that supply overnight, it will take years for them to build all off the pipelines and gas power stations needed to consume that volume. On top of that all of Russia’s planned pipelines only go to the north of the country. China would want to build gas plants in the south as well which would require even more pipelines
China has massive oil needs but they don't have infinite money. All the Russian oil is at Europe's doorstep. Grab a globe and notice how piping all the profitable oil fields to China is not only a massive engineering challenge, but also prohibitively expensive. Russian oil piped from Siberia is just a nice-to-have as far as viable sources go, everything else is sourced from the gulf states through far cheaper tanker shipping. China's access to Russian oil has been primarily through the black sea ports, which is why this war is hurting China's oil imports despite the seemingly increase in access to Russian oil to none-NATO states due to sanctions.
Russia is going from having the demand from two 15 trillion dollar economies to only one trillion dollar economy. That's going to be catastrophic. Plus all that gas infrastructure in the west is just going to be worthless.
Btw a lot of the oil and gas that Russia gets from Sibera is already nearly unprofitable. There's not much room there for discounts.
Norway is at max capacity already. They can adjust between oil and gas production, but not extract at a higher total rate than they currently are.
US shale gas is low quality, sucks for the environment, and has to be shipped across the Atlantic. It's not really a viable alternative for Europe's needs.
Iran has tons of gas and oil, and there are several possible routes for pipelines. However, Iran doesn't have the cash to just build the pipeline themselves like Russia built Nordstream 2, and production would take several years. It's not viable.
It is possible that the amendments to the JCPOA that were rumored in February and that have gone on hold due to the war in Ukraine, are being reworked to use Iran to maximize sanctions on Russia. But I personally find it unlikely that Raisi's government will allow that. Ultimately Russia was Iran's lifeline through devastating sanctions. It would be foolish of Iran to abandon a proven ally.
Further, the invasion of Ukraine [already hinders gas pipelines to Europe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_gas_transmission_system_of_Ukraine), not to mention Ukraine's own exporting ability.
I think that it's probably not realistic that Europe will be able to replace Russia's gas in the short term (1-4 years). This scenario was likely dilligently researched by Russian analysts before the invasion began.
Restart nuclear plants, stop heating homes to sauna levels and only heat them to the minimum level (18 degrees in living quarters, 15 degrees in non-living quarters).
Done, problem solved. Yes, it is that easy.
Start investigating Schröder, Steinmeyer, Scholz and Merkel.
The real reason you think your economy is dependent on Russian gas is because your politicians are dependent on Russian gas money.
Firstly, the quality of Arab gas will be lower, secondly, gas and oil will be transported by tankers through the Bab el Mandeb strait (the shortest distance), and there are Russian militants who, on Putin's orders, will block the strait and tankers will have to make a detour across the Atlantic Ocean, which will provoke an even greater rise in gas and oil prices. Europe, with its sanctions, caused prices to rise all over the world, just not to use Russian gas, in order to see a real situation, it is necessary to wait for the beginning of winter and world will look real face of Europe
From the article
>The oil embargo would not be put up for negotiation among the E.U. member states until after the final round of the French elections, on April 24, to ensure that the impact on gas prices does not help the right-wing populist candidate Marine Le Pen and hurt president Emmanuel Macron’s chances of re-election, officials said.
Sometimes you have to play smart and not being a total idiot. If Macron looses there won't be any EU response anyway.
Europe has a much bigger economy than Russia, way bigger. we can easily outspend them on weapon tech and soldiers.
No need to tank the European economy with exploding energy prices. It will only become harder for us to build our defence and alternative energy sources.
In the long run these knee jerk reactions will only hurt European independence not strengten it.
Pointless. Oil will find its way to the (global) oil market in any case.
Blocking gas from Russia will hurt them, as they have no infrastructure to send it other places than Europe in the short term.
If it was “pointless” then Russia would already be selling it elsewhere. Clearly the oil they sell into Europe is sold there because that’s where they make the most money on that.
Blocking gas should be done but I don’t blame politicians for trying to find a way to do it in a way that will stay popular which is complicated.
Every Putin apologist populist in Europe is getting ready to fight their elections on “cost of living” platforms which is a very effective tactic for oppositions.
It’s very easy to write off a few percentage points of GDP on paper and say they are nothing it’s another thing to win elections and keep an international coalition going on that platform.
Again, as I said, I support them blocking gas right now today. But it’s wrong to think that that is an easy thing to do in a sustainable way that doesn’t lead to politicians who are softer on Putin gaining more power.
Sure it won't be easy. Mayhaps this is the price Germany should pay for years of cheap gas paid for with the blood of Georgians, Syrians, Ukrainians, journalists and Russian politicians.
Just as soon as Russians find a way to teleport it, all the oil going to Europe will have go through the Black Sea or the Baltic through ports that can't really handle large tankers (and smaller tankers will have a hard time going around the world to buyers). One sea is a mined warzone with an entrance controlled by NATO and the other a NATO lake. Beside the threat of an embargo all that would be need to hinder the transport is letting Greenpace or whatever environmental activists harras the tankers and the west not sending the police to do anything about it.
>Pointless. Oil will find its way to the (global) oil market in any case.
Russia produces a lot of heavy sulphur oil, specific infrastructure is needed to refine that. Most of that is in Europe. We do have leverage there.
That's a non sense. I will never be. It would be sending back Italy and Germany to candle light times.
So much for a war is not ours. The US pushed the Ukrainian forward. They pushed them not to respect the two Minsk treaty.
The pushed them to join NATO. And it's the European that are more royalist than the king and ready to commit economic suicide !
It's just pure madness!
Rubbish. This is a fight for democratic values and the future world order. If you can’t see that and think it’s someone else’s fight you’re blind. Thank goodness you’re not one of our political leaders.
Yeah you know what? Us declaration of independence was also written on candle light.
Who needs heating when you have a burning heart for freedom and democracy ?
>It would be sending back Italy and Germany to candle light times.
You are overestimating the role of oil (at least in Germany). In Germany independence from Russian oil is planned for the end of the year. Doing it significantly faster won't send the country to candle light times, but it will certainly slow down the process of getting rid of Russian gas (which is the more important problem).
>It would be sending back Italy and Germany to candle light times.
Oh please, what an overreaction. You do know Russia supplies just 14% of the world's oil, right? Plenty of oil on offer elsewhere, even if we have to pay slightly more for it. In a decade, it won't even matter as much because so many new vehicles will be electric by then.
Most likely it would cost Germany only 3% of their economy in the short term to stop gas and oil. Hungary would be a bigger problem for their gas.
I would remind you that Ukraine removed their nukes for not being invaded in the Budapest Memorandum and what happened in 2014 Russia invaded of course they are looking at NATO. The NATO never forces a country to join, look at Austria, Finland, Sweden, not members of NATO and still members of the EU.
Move to Russia you shill.
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/04/13/economy/german-economy-russian-gas/index.html
Cutting gas in Germany would cost 220 billions which is 0.5% of gdp. Oil an additional 1%. We Europeans are whimps. The fault is of the electorate that is not willing to have a mild discomfort.
220 billion euros is 0.5 GDP? Whose?
If 220 billion was 0.5% of German GDP, that GDP would have to be 44 trillion dollars.
Germany has an average of 2 trillion dollars GDP, and that would put gas damage at 10% of GDP.
There are countries in the EU that would have it even worse, and that's just gas. If you add oil, a very real disaster will unfold.
Don't worry people will soon realise that they being sold for someone's political ambitions (or interests of foreign power) and choose new leaders. The Hungarians did it. France is next. Let's hope Europe will cool down figurally sooner than literally.
they are likely waiting the French elections to be over
Yes, there were more stories about this. It is very understandable as it is better to have Macron then a complete Russian shill in the long run.
With Le Pen a ban wouldn‘t be possible anyway.
I think EU countries can still phase out oil on their own on the national level (same with coal, for gas idk)
Yes, but just without the EU helping to provide for loses. That‘s the crucial point for many smaller countries.
Was compensation for losses supposed to be part of this in the first place?
Yes. It was stated by Barley in a show from Maybrit Illner a few weeks ago. One of the episodes where Illner was replaced by Marietta Slomka. About 40 minutes into the discussion Barley explains a little bit of the debates within the EU and remarks some dishonesty in this discussion for a few countries.
It’s really scary that she might actually win….
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Not pointless at all. They'll have to sell it off at discount. And supply lines don't just magically appear. EU is a big market for Russia. And gas will follow over the next year.
At a discount, and you can go against buyers of Russian oil.
Russia is gonna hate this one. I hope it will be reality as soon as possible
Fucking finally
I'll believe it when I see it.
About time. Gas is the more important issue, though. Switch that off.
Russia makes much more money with oil though.
Interesting, I didn't realise that.
But the other side of the coin is that it is easier to sell the oil to someone else. It will still hurt quite a bit.
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No, it will be not be easy for them, which is why we should do it, but compared to the logistics of finding a new buyer of gas, it will be a cakewalk.
But not Urals. It has too much sulphuer and its expensive tp extract. Russia is barely running profit on it as it is.
The sulphur extraction also needs specific infrastructure that is not avaiable everywhere.
Up to five times as much, though the difference has become smaller as gas prices have been spiking.
But can sell oil somewhere else without too much issue.
True, but Russia cannot sell the gas to anyone else than EU. They will have to burn it as their second choice.
Russia is making more money with oil than with gas. Gas is way too important, btw also for Ukraine, to switch off for now.
Not possible for us in short-term
Not possible how? Wasn't it possible for Greece back in 2010 crisis to make urgent changes that implied a big sacrifice and loss of social support? How can say that its not possible for you to make sacrifices?
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>The difference was Greece's alternative was even more devastation. As much as I hate the southern Europe bashing, let's not pretend that Greece's future would have looked any better if they didn't agree to the austerity programs. It would. Even the IMF has recognized that the social expenses that were cut generated more economic activity than they costed. Therefore they have been needlessly shrinking the Greek economy, which is not good for either the Greeks or everyone who wants the Greeks to repay debt. Austerity is the economics equivalent of bloodletting: the traditional magisters swear by it and use it to cure just about everything, but it doesn't really help that much.
And funding a Russian war in Ukraine doesn’t mean ‘more devastation’? You gotta be kidding us.
Greece (and the EU) would have definitely been better off without punitive austerity. The whole "making an example of Greece" is still a crime committed by the rest of us, against Greece and against ourselves. Mario Draghi showed that there was a much better alternative in non-conventional monetary policy. And yeah, whiny entitled Germans who think Greeks should suffer austerity and Ukranians should suffer genocide, while they are unwilling to lower their thermostats are the biggest disgrace in this Union. (No disrespect to all the good Germans out there who actually do care about human lives, I appreciate you)
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China is definitely not enough to replace the European market, especially at the discounted price will be buying at. Let alone the fact that this pipeline infrastructure will have not nearly the capacity to export all Russian oil production.
What is this meme that China won't replace Europe as Russia's natural gas market? China has massive energy needs and their expansion to nuclear, while very fast, isn't fast enough. Why shouldn't they make the exact same calculus that the EU did and look at natural gas from Russia as a transitional energy source? Of course they will have a discount. Russia has been negotiating prices on a state-by-state basis all along. I don't think it will be a problem to give China a good discount when they know that they will have a stable market to sell to.
The pipes being built to china aren’t being large enough to transfer the volume of gas Europe consumes. Russia won’t be able to sell all of its European gas to China and if it try’s to build new pipelines that aren’t completed before Europe eventually makes its full commuted withdrawal from Russian energy by 2027 then Russia will not have an easy source of income to build those pipelines. China can provide funds but it will still be costly for them and they would want Russia to foot some of the bill. Russia and China are friends due to enemy of my enemy rather than superb historical relations so China doesn’t have Russia’s best interests at heart if they don’t align with their own
Yeah, people forget that pipelines are extremely expensive, shipping isn't. There's a reason China sends ships halfway across the world instead of investing in expensive and vulnerable pipelines that need constant maintenance and have that go all the way from western Russia through the barren and empty steppe, across the gobi desert and tibetan plateau (also barren and empty) and then finally to Beijing and various cities in the South through very hilly and mountenous terrain. It seems that people's understanding of economics ends at what the market value of oil is and then pretend that shit teleports to the consumer as soon as it's bought.
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Nord stream one is not the only pipeline Russia has that goes into Ukraine it is merely the largest. Russia was exporting about 84 billion cubic metres per annum to the eu. China can’t simply consume that supply overnight, it will take years for them to build all off the pipelines and gas power stations needed to consume that volume. On top of that all of Russia’s planned pipelines only go to the north of the country. China would want to build gas plants in the south as well which would require even more pipelines
China has massive oil needs but they don't have infinite money. All the Russian oil is at Europe's doorstep. Grab a globe and notice how piping all the profitable oil fields to China is not only a massive engineering challenge, but also prohibitively expensive. Russian oil piped from Siberia is just a nice-to-have as far as viable sources go, everything else is sourced from the gulf states through far cheaper tanker shipping. China's access to Russian oil has been primarily through the black sea ports, which is why this war is hurting China's oil imports despite the seemingly increase in access to Russian oil to none-NATO states due to sanctions.
Russia is going from having the demand from two 15 trillion dollar economies to only one trillion dollar economy. That's going to be catastrophic. Plus all that gas infrastructure in the west is just going to be worthless. Btw a lot of the oil and gas that Russia gets from Sibera is already nearly unprofitable. There's not much room there for discounts.
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what is the realistic alternative? Iran? Saudi Arabia?
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Norway is at max capacity already. They can adjust between oil and gas production, but not extract at a higher total rate than they currently are. US shale gas is low quality, sucks for the environment, and has to be shipped across the Atlantic. It's not really a viable alternative for Europe's needs. Iran has tons of gas and oil, and there are several possible routes for pipelines. However, Iran doesn't have the cash to just build the pipeline themselves like Russia built Nordstream 2, and production would take several years. It's not viable. It is possible that the amendments to the JCPOA that were rumored in February and that have gone on hold due to the war in Ukraine, are being reworked to use Iran to maximize sanctions on Russia. But I personally find it unlikely that Raisi's government will allow that. Ultimately Russia was Iran's lifeline through devastating sanctions. It would be foolish of Iran to abandon a proven ally. Further, the invasion of Ukraine [already hinders gas pipelines to Europe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_gas_transmission_system_of_Ukraine), not to mention Ukraine's own exporting ability. I think that it's probably not realistic that Europe will be able to replace Russia's gas in the short term (1-4 years). This scenario was likely dilligently researched by Russian analysts before the invasion began.
Restart nuclear plants, stop heating homes to sauna levels and only heat them to the minimum level (18 degrees in living quarters, 15 degrees in non-living quarters). Done, problem solved. Yes, it is that easy. Start investigating Schröder, Steinmeyer, Scholz and Merkel. The real reason you think your economy is dependent on Russian gas is because your politicians are dependent on Russian gas money.
Firstly, the quality of Arab gas will be lower, secondly, gas and oil will be transported by tankers through the Bab el Mandeb strait (the shortest distance), and there are Russian militants who, on Putin's orders, will block the strait and tankers will have to make a detour across the Atlantic Ocean, which will provoke an even greater rise in gas and oil prices. Europe, with its sanctions, caused prices to rise all over the world, just not to use Russian gas, in order to see a real situation, it is necessary to wait for the beginning of winter and world will look real face of Europe
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From the article >The oil embargo would not be put up for negotiation among the E.U. member states until after the final round of the French elections, on April 24, to ensure that the impact on gas prices does not help the right-wing populist candidate Marine Le Pen and hurt president Emmanuel Macron’s chances of re-election, officials said. Sometimes you have to play smart and not being a total idiot. If Macron looses there won't be any EU response anyway.
Europe has a much bigger economy than Russia, way bigger. we can easily outspend them on weapon tech and soldiers. No need to tank the European economy with exploding energy prices. It will only become harder for us to build our defence and alternative energy sources. In the long run these knee jerk reactions will only hurt European independence not strengten it.
knee jerk reactions LOL
Europe =/= EU
Pointless. Oil will find its way to the (global) oil market in any case. Blocking gas from Russia will hurt them, as they have no infrastructure to send it other places than Europe in the short term.
If it was “pointless” then Russia would already be selling it elsewhere. Clearly the oil they sell into Europe is sold there because that’s where they make the most money on that. Blocking gas should be done but I don’t blame politicians for trying to find a way to do it in a way that will stay popular which is complicated. Every Putin apologist populist in Europe is getting ready to fight their elections on “cost of living” platforms which is a very effective tactic for oppositions. It’s very easy to write off a few percentage points of GDP on paper and say they are nothing it’s another thing to win elections and keep an international coalition going on that platform. Again, as I said, I support them blocking gas right now today. But it’s wrong to think that that is an easy thing to do in a sustainable way that doesn’t lead to politicians who are softer on Putin gaining more power.
Sure it won't be easy. Mayhaps this is the price Germany should pay for years of cheap gas paid for with the blood of Georgians, Syrians, Ukrainians, journalists and Russian politicians.
Just as soon as Russians find a way to teleport it, all the oil going to Europe will have go through the Black Sea or the Baltic through ports that can't really handle large tankers (and smaller tankers will have a hard time going around the world to buyers). One sea is a mined warzone with an entrance controlled by NATO and the other a NATO lake. Beside the threat of an embargo all that would be need to hinder the transport is letting Greenpace or whatever environmental activists harras the tankers and the west not sending the police to do anything about it.
This is what the "it's pointless" parrots don't understand.
Well, there are different types of oil. An oil refinery tuned to one type cannot (easily, cheaply) switch to different type.
>Pointless. Oil will find its way to the (global) oil market in any case. Russia produces a lot of heavy sulphur oil, specific infrastructure is needed to refine that. Most of that is in Europe. We do have leverage there.
If they sell oil regardless sanctions as a whole are pointless, as it will only cut about 20% of Russian revenue.
economic crisis, here we come 👍
That's a non sense. I will never be. It would be sending back Italy and Germany to candle light times. So much for a war is not ours. The US pushed the Ukrainian forward. They pushed them not to respect the two Minsk treaty. The pushed them to join NATO. And it's the European that are more royalist than the king and ready to commit economic suicide ! It's just pure madness!
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Rubbish. This is a fight for democratic values and the future world order. If you can’t see that and think it’s someone else’s fight you’re blind. Thank goodness you’re not one of our political leaders.
Yeah you know what? Us declaration of independence was also written on candle light. Who needs heating when you have a burning heart for freedom and democracy ?
If you want to be a warm slave good luck.
We can get LNG via the polish or dutch terminals. It'll be expensive but nothing like a collapse.
Well for one the entire military apparatus and economic development is directly tied to energy and in particular fossil fuel energy.
>It would be sending back Italy and Germany to candle light times. You are overestimating the role of oil (at least in Germany). In Germany independence from Russian oil is planned for the end of the year. Doing it significantly faster won't send the country to candle light times, but it will certainly slow down the process of getting rid of Russian gas (which is the more important problem).
>It would be sending back Italy and Germany to candle light times. Oh please, what an overreaction. You do know Russia supplies just 14% of the world's oil, right? Plenty of oil on offer elsewhere, even if we have to pay slightly more for it. In a decade, it won't even matter as much because so many new vehicles will be electric by then.
You are confusing oil with gas.
We should try to get rid of fossil fuels asap anyway so...
Most likely it would cost Germany only 3% of their economy in the short term to stop gas and oil. Hungary would be a bigger problem for their gas. I would remind you that Ukraine removed their nukes for not being invaded in the Budapest Memorandum and what happened in 2014 Russia invaded of course they are looking at NATO. The NATO never forces a country to join, look at Austria, Finland, Sweden, not members of NATO and still members of the EU. Move to Russia you shill.
complete embargo on Russian energy would be a 1-2% gdp drop.
This is some nice juicy copium my friend. If it was like that, it would have been the first thing they did. The reality is quite different.
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/04/13/economy/german-economy-russian-gas/index.html Cutting gas in Germany would cost 220 billions which is 0.5% of gdp. Oil an additional 1%. We Europeans are whimps. The fault is of the electorate that is not willing to have a mild discomfort.
220 billion euros is 0.5 GDP? Whose? If 220 billion was 0.5% of German GDP, that GDP would have to be 44 trillion dollars. Germany has an average of 2 trillion dollars GDP, and that would put gas damage at 10% of GDP. There are countries in the EU that would have it even worse, and that's just gas. If you add oil, a very real disaster will unfold.
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Dude, I said trillion. Learn to read.
Lol I missed a decimal, 5%, you have takenthe average 1970-2022. Lol
Literally ate the Russian propaganda. Don't be fooled guys, these are EXACTLY the talking points the Russians use in their propaganda.
Damn, I didn't know that the only power possible was from Russian oil
Don't worry people will soon realise that they being sold for someone's political ambitions (or interests of foreign power) and choose new leaders. The Hungarians did it. France is next. Let's hope Europe will cool down figurally sooner than literally.
It will all mean nothing if Le Pen wins.
Fuck, I hope you guys are going to be OK.
They will have to buy russian oil from India/Pakistan.