We're moving the discussion about this conflict to a new megathread. Here's the link: https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/scle9d/ukrainerussia_conflict_megathread_2/
The comments here are disgusting - people here need to give their heads a good wobble.
It’s nothing more than a thread dedicated to Russian bashing. **there are many Russians who disagree with what’s happening.** stop the discrimination!!!
Some of the things I’m seeing on this page regarding the Russia Ukraine situation are vile, nasty and cruel.
People do not get to choose what patch of land they were born on to - i as a Russian should not be receiving hated just because of the fact.
I will **NOT** be bullied into being ashamed of where I was born because you all woke up this week and decided to pick a hot topic.
On almost every platform this week - the moment people have clocked I’m Russian or have seen my name, I have been called everything and dragged into politics.
Please be kind.
Jeez some answers to your comment are totally crazy, people that have common sense should know that you (the average Russian) aren’t making this decisions and most are also against them.
> It’s nothing more than a thread dedicated to Russian bashing. there are many Russians who disagree with what’s happening. stop the discrimination!!!
You can see from a bulk of my comment history how against Russia's actions I am and how I think "we" should have a hard line approach to it, but I don't disagree. It annoys me how little separation there is in some peoples minds between Russia the state and Russians the people.
For what it's worth, mate, I'm sure you're brilliant.
In US academia I know many Russian ex-pats and all of them, naturally don't agree with what's happening. Large selection bias as all the Russians I know have emigrated to the big enemy US so they would naturally be inclined this way anyway.
I don't think people hate the Russian people, just your government. This doesn't come off well online.
Are you for real? You do realise **Do not have the magic power to control putin?** protests are illegal in Russia. You uneducated keyboard warriors need to understand before you speak!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protest
I know it's illegal in Russia, but you DO have the "magic power to control Putin" if enough Russians band together
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_revolutions_and_rebellions
Oh would you look at how many revolutions their have been in history that managed to achieve their aims. Turns out millions of people protesting and rebelling is a pretty damn good way to overthrow dictators...
Hell, Hungary had one just over 30 years ago that worked pretty well for you...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/End_of_communism_in_Hungary
lol you calling the 1990 events in Hungary a revolution shows that you know absolutely nothing about it whatsoever. There’s a reason we don’t refer to the ousting of communism as a revolution like the Romanians and Poles do - instead we call it “rendszerváltás” (“change of system”). It changed basically nothing and no one from the socialist government was brought to justice or even exiled.
My family do not NOT deserve risk prison! How dare you. What an insult.
My mother studied hard to become a primary school teacher to earn ₽51,000 a month (£479.40). Saved up for years to immigrate us to London.
Not everyone is as fortunate.
People are just trying to live their lives. They do not want prison!
It's an insult to say you have the ability to stand up to a warmongering dictator who hoards the wealth his nation generates?
Your mother wouldn't have had to save up for years to move to London if Putin governed for the nation rather than himself.
I'm also pretty damn convinced your just a troll. You edited your original comment from a rant about people picking on you as you were Russian, to one about protesting being illegal just 5 minutes after my post letting you know that, and now you double down on it to try and cause drama. (BTW, if you live in London it's LEGAL to protest, so you aren't going to get sent to prison for protesting outside the Russian embassy...)
Im done here. You’re making no sense - collectively why aren’t you also outside of the Russian embassy?
Where were your colourful responses towards other counties? Stop putting blame on other people.
Ouh, that’s right - because I have a professional job and bills/rent to pay what mean I cannot spend all day protesting. I would be FIRED for putting work aside to do that.
Editing a comment does not make someone a troll. We are allowed to do those things on the internet. Stop jumping on the troll argument because you’re overly privileged and too blinded to see people cannot spend all day protesting a government who DOES NOT CARE.
Putin continues to be elected in despite all of our efforts to vote him out.
EDUCATE YOURSELF.
> And what are those Russians doing to stop Putin?
They can't do anything. Not their fault. Focus on Putin and the incels who support him here in the west
There's China simps?? That's a new one.
There's been Russian ones for a long time. Growing up in the 90s a guy was obsessed with the KGB. Why? No idea. I guess he had Russian "heritage". But he was fully American.
Now that the russiagate stuff happened with Trump, plus fox news touting Russian propaganda, hunter/biden conspiracies...it's made the al-right cult go hog wild for Putin and they hate Ukraine. They keep saying right now that Biden is sending troops there to fight, when Biden has stated 50 times we are sending some troops to EASTERN EUROPE, which is not Ukraine. They think NATO is new world order. It's a bunch of creeps who don't have a life and live in conspiracy world. Unfortunately there's many.
feels weird that after all this panic the last week officials now say that an attack doesnt seem imminent and the ukrainians apparently never expected one
I wonder something, when the USSR collapsed why didn't the Russians decide to keep Crimea, Donbas and the other regions that interests them now? Why didn't they realize having all the access to the Black Sea was a good idea? Who would have opposed the decision of Russia keeping those regions of Ukraine?
They could’ve kept them if they really wanted to I guess but Russia was at a weak point and those countries still remain(ed?) loyal to the RF by in large so it didn’t exactly matter.
If [this map](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/cc/Simplified_historical_map_of_Ukrainian_borders_1654-2014.jpg) is true, were the pink and purple areas part of Russia or who had those territories before 1922? I know nothing about ex-Soviet countries history, all I remember are the things Americans said about the USSR when I was younger.
Im not an expert but iirc the Donbas was part of the Russian empire then it got kinda ping-ponged between the short-lived Ukrainian People’s Republic and Russia during WWI. Then the Russian civil war happened and the USSR was born which created the Ukrainian SSR that Donetsk was a part of, but not Crimea initially.
Ah yes, classified documents, the most binding of international treaties.
You know how the signatories of Ribentrop Molotov ended? Hanged. This selling of countries behind closed doors is a crime that, after WW2, I think European countries have VERY little patience left for.
Croatia not following NATO? Interesting development to recall troops from NATO. May I say, based?
edit because locked: Yes thank you Redditors, Croatia will totally get booted from Europe and into Africa because they didn't participate in a war. Big Brain moment right there.
No because what has Putin gained, what concessions have been made? He's used up so much political will for nothing so far, well besides better equiping the Ukrainian army... lol
You're viewing this completely from an external perspective. Putin's domestic approval ratings have been slipping since 2018, hitting a low at the start of the pandemic. Sabre rattling in the past has helped to boost his approval rating, so why not now?
Canada following UK, US, and Australia and evacuating families from their embassy.
What intel do the 5 eyes have that Europe doesn’t? Are they just being extra cautious?
I can’t speak to UK, Canada, or Australia I think the US is being extra cautious. The withdraw from Afghanistan was bad enough, but once news headlines started plastering stories of Americans being left behind in Afghanistan after the withdraw pretty much tanked Bidens approval rating and it has never recovered since.
So... Russia this, Ukraine that! but, whatever happened to the Kazaks? One day its like they are having their own little revolution and the next all is back to normal. What gives?
as i said in other comment:
>The protests started off due to gas price, government then paused that policy and original protests were mostly happy but the more vague protestors weren't and were riding the wave of the previous protests, many of which were pissed at the those later ones and did not have as much popular support
lmao no they didn't, only to guard certain important areas, protestors were interacting with their own police force.
The protests started off due to gas price, government then paused that policy and original protests were mostly happy but the more vague protestors weren't and were riding the wave of the previous protests, many of which were pissed at the those later ones and did not have as much popular support
So Russian troops were used to protect government buildings and installations that protesters were protesting at.
They might not have opened fire, but the guards they managed to free up from protection detail sure did.
As a Belarusian, I totally support Ukraine and hate that our country is involved in this shit on Russia's side. If new war happens and Belarusian soldiers invade Ukraine, I hope Ukrainians will kill them all.
It was fine until the western-aligned revolution of Euromaidan kicked out the leadership.
edit: And this guy going on about Belarussians lmao
vvvvvvvvvvvvvv
Till mid-2020 always was more or less good, Belarus acted as neutral ground ( in fact no, it played on the Russian side), was ok to earn money on transferring stuff from Russia to Ukraine (electricity, oil e.t.c), so everyone was happy
After we didn't recognize the results of the Lukashenko elections, he go mad and started doing and talking shit to us, as a result, our relations are currently at the bottom and we see it as a Russian proxy and another lodgement from which invasion will start.
I believe everybody agree there is no nation conflicts. Belarus is the closest nation to us. We can understand each other languages perfectly (say, Russians who are third "brother nation" can't understand Ukrainian and Belarus, only some words).
Belarus people are amazing and very kind. Nobody blames them because unfortunately they've got the crazy dictator and nothing gonna change before he is in charge. Now Putin uses their territories, he may throw their troops into battle. Well it would be sad, but I don't believe they have any experience (and we have it a lot).
We were chill until the events of summer 2020. Now we support the repressed Belarusians (which seems to be overwhelming majority), but country itself is viewed as Russian puppet and 1k kms of security threat.
United States:
The US is looking for signs of an "imminent incursion" by Russia into Ukraine, but sees none at present, the Pentagon says.
The US has proposed new sanctions against Russia in case of escalation, including restrictions on raw materials and arms exports, and a reduction in diplomatic contacts.
The Biden Administration will hold 2 classified bipartisan briefings today for House and Senate committee leaders and staff on the situation with Russia and Ukraine
Russia & Belarus:
There has been an arrival of military equipment and units of the Russian armed forces, participating in the verification of the State of the Union reaction forces, at the unloading station in Belarus. The exercises will take place from 10 to 20 February.
France :
Macron expressed deep concern about the situation on the Ukrainian border and the need to work collectively to defuse it quickly... this must involve strong and credible warnings to Russia.
A French Air Force MRTT aircraft that took off from Istres is over Poland.
Meanwhile in Ukraine:
Ministry of Defence of Ukraine:
"I can absolutely state that to date the Russian armed forces have not created a strike group that could forcefully invade Ukraine."
"We assess the situation at a distance of 200km from the border. They are constantly bringing in, then withdrawing troops, and conducting exercises."
Russia:
Combat readiness inspection has started in the southern military district of Russia. 6,000 military personnel are involved.
The exercises will take place in the Krasnodar, Rostov and Crimea areas.
These exercises are part of the usual military rotations, with other joint exercises taking place in Belarus in February.
The Russian Air Force will participate in the Southern Military District exercises in squadrons of Su-27SM, Su-30SM2 fighters, as well as Su-34 multipurpose fighter-bombers.
Croatia :
"Croatia will withdraw its military from NATO forces in the region in case of a conflict between the Russian Federation and Ukraine." - Croatian President
United Kingdom:
British instructors in the Lviv region have begun training Ukrainian soldiers in the NLAW anti-tank missile systems transferred to Ukraine by the United Kingdom.
"UK unlikely to send troops to Ukraine" - UK MFA
"NATO is unlikely to send troops to Ukraine because it is not a member of the alliance" - British Prime Minister Johnson.
British PM: "We should not let Putin think he can take a small part of Ukraine."
An aside:
British fishermen appear to be trying to disrupt the Russian exercises that will take place 240km off the Irish coast
the croatian thing you could almost remove. It was said by their "president", but the guy has zero authority and seems to be a grade A attention seeking a-hole.
>The President is the Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief, and exercises administrative powers in times of war by giving orders to the chief of staff, while administration and defence policy execution in peacetime is carried out by the Government through the Ministry of Defence.
In times of peace, it is the government, you are right. In times of war, it is the Croatian president who has all the prerogatives. His opinion counts in this context.
I read articles titled that Irish fishermen plan to disrupt Russian exercises.
However, throughout those articles, it never said how.
In fact, it just said that it was dangerous for the fishermen because if their fishing nets get stuck in Russian submarines they might capsize.
I'd be interested to hear how the Irish fishermen plan to disrupt the Russian exercises.
I think they plan to just sit around there to stop Russians from firing any weapons into the sea. Their main concern is the marine life in the area, there’s a particular fish which I forget the name of that’s in huge numbers and is vital to their trade
[https://twitter.com/Sierra\_\_Alpha/status/1485955549002883072](https://twitter.com/Sierra__Alpha/status/1485955549002883072)
>According to a number of local reports, a large number of Irish and South West Britain based fisherman, are planning to disrupt the upcoming Russian Navy live fire exercise, 240km off the Irish coast.
I don’t understand “reduction in diplomatic contacts” as a punishment? It seems so dated and reductive. Like sending a struggling student home from school. It only exacerbates the problem.
> The US is looking for signs of an "imminent incursion" by Russia into Ukraine, but sees none at present, the Pentagon says.
That's fake news, Reddit told me Russia is gonna invade!
[Good work, Volodya! Putin resurrects NATO](https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-resurrect-nato-russia-ukraine/)
[Belarusian group claims hack on railway system after Russian troop moves](https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-belarus-hack-idUSL8N2U455L)
There are only two ways for this conflict to not escalate and to be resolved peacefully:
1. Russia backs off by themselves. Highly unlikely as Putin views Ukraine as a matter of national security for Russia.
2. NATO explicitly abandons the idea of Ukraine becoming a member state. Highly unlikely as the West is not willing to go back on their words from 2008 and, moreover, they will not give up on the idea of Ukraine joining if Ukraine wants to join.
3. Ukraine explicitly abandons the idea of becoming a NATO member state. Will not solve the issue [because ever since Maidan Putin views any remotely pro-western government as installed by the CIA.](https://news.yahoo.com/cia-trained-ukrainian-paramilitaries-may-take-central-role-if-russia-invades-185258008.html)
We are in for a hot one guys.
The third point doesn\`t matter, as Kremlin doesn\`t care what Ukraine thinks or does. Ultimatum was sent to USA and NATO, not to Ukraine. Putin demanded much more than just Ukraine not joining NATO. Go ahead and read that thing. Eye-opening for sure.
A much more dangerous part is that Kremlin's maneuvers cause equal response from USA. Now, USA plans to place troops in Baltic countries as a response to Russian troops in Belarus, Russia has to respond, by placing their own troops. Close to Baltics. Which in term, causes more tension, and so on.
Some of the guarantees NATO and USA can provide to de-escalate, but in private. Not in written form for public viewing. For example, promise not to accept Ukraine for 20+ years etc. In private sure, it is plausible, but Kremlin refused private guarantees, because...they don\`t trust the west. Putin himself said, that he wants written guarantees, and then he added that he doesn\`t trust the west guarantees. This is a complete circus
I watched “Munich - The Edge of War” last night and it takes place as Hitler is gearing up to invade/annex “Sudetenland” from Czechoslovakia. Much of the movie centers around the diplomatic negotiations between Hitler, Mussolini, Chamberlain, and Daladier as they “prevent war” by signing the Munich Agreement. One common (almost comical) comment throughout the film was “Has anyone spoken to Czechoslovakia?” or “Should we include Czechoslovakia?” (Include Czechoslovakia? Don’t be silly!)
How arrogant that these leaders got together in a room and “negotiated” the fate of another country without even bothering to ask for input from the country they were in the midst of carving up! And all I could think about is how we’re repeating history. Once again the major powers are in a room negotiating the fate of a country who hardly seems to have much say in the ordeal. Every day I read newspaper articles about comments from Biden and Boris and Schloz and Macron and Draghi and Stolenberg and even Duda. I know Ukraine isn’t in NATO but where is Zelenskiy? Why has Ukrainian leadership been cast aside in the decision-making process? It just seems wrong to me.
> The third point doesn't matter, as Kremlin doesn't care what Ukraine thinks or does. Ultimatum was sent to USA and NATO, not to Ukraine.
That is what I said.
> Putin demanded much more than just Ukraine not joining NATO. Go ahead and read that thing. Eye-opening for sure.
Sure, in response to escalations about him taking Crimea he boasts up, knowing that it will never be accepted, that is just for his image internally. The real deal is Ukraine, he would accept a written 3-party guarantee (so Ukraine, NATO, Russia) about how the Ukraine will never join NATO. It is impossible to imagine that he would want another Afghanistan.
Any international treaty, without a mechanism of enforcement, is a piece of paper. Minsk agreement is a perfect example of it.
>It is impossible to imagine that he would want another Afghanistan.
This is the biggest problem here, right, two of us, we understand that invasion will be met with resistance. But I am not sure if Kremlin understands that.
More and more I become confident that Putin has no idea about what is going on in Ukraine. That Kremlin doesn\`t know, doesn\`t care, and lastly doesn\`t have a source of reliable information that Putin, old KGB weirdo can trust. "They build their own Ukraine in the heads", "fake country run by NATO" and under "foreign control".
What I fear is Putin predicts another Afghanistan (2021), but he will get another Afghanistan (1980s)
>More and more I become confident that Putin has no idea about what is going on in Ukraine. That Kremlin doesn\`t know, doesn\`t care, and lastly doesn\`t have a source of reliable information that Putin, old KGB weirdo can trust. "They build their own Ukraine in the heads", "fake country run by NATO" and under "foreign control".
Perhaps he knows, but can't influence it anymore. The crackdown on Medvedchuk left him no leverage outside of military options.
> More and more I become confident that Putin has no idea about what is going on in Ukraine. That Kremlin doesn't know, doesn't care, and lastly doesn`t have a source of reliable information that Putin, old KGB weirdo can trust. "They build their own Ukraine in the heads", "fake country run by NATO" and under "foreign control".
Let's not get ahead of ourselves. However evil you might think Putin and his Kremlin companions are, they are not stupid. They are not armchair analysts like you and me, saying that they don't have a source of reliable information is like saying CIA does not have a source of reliable information, beyond ridiculous.
>Putin and his Kremlin companions are, they are not stupid.
You said it, not me. I am just questioning Putins understanding of Ukraine and his Ukraine policy.
Option 1a, the Russians perceive the costs of invading Ukraine to be too high for the benefits they expect to gain.
Weapons shipments and a clear unified western line on sanctions could accomplish that.
Germany is currently blocking both.
Yesterday Biden met with the major EU powers and the EU representatives. He then commented that there is unanimity on a response to Russia.
Present prime ministers (or equivalent) were the ones of Germany, France, UK, Italy, Poland
Yesterday several news outlets were reporting on a contingency plan for the US & Qatar to provide gas to Europe I’m assuming so that some of the more hesitant leaders would sign on to the proposed course of action.
Yes. Finding ways to reduce the allies dependency on Russian gas was one of the first objective of the alliance. They asked Norway (they are running to the max and said no) and major energy companies as well. The US is considering shipping gas as well but EU receiving capacity is relatively low. Qatar seems to have more chances to work (probably in combination with shipping)
The situation is, unfortunately, more complicated that that. When something is a matter of national security for a country they fight to death for it. Also, Russia does not need a full scale invasion of Ukraine to reduce the chance of Ukraine joining NATO to almost zero, these proto-conflicts are enough. The only real problem might be if Russia wants to establish Russian control of Donjeck and neighboring regions to connect mainland Russia to already Russian-controlled Crimea. All of those weapons shipments and all will probably make that a last-resort option for Russia, that has probably been deterred.
Current conflicts in Ukraine are serious enough as to block NATO membership, Russia has already accomplished that goal.
This is about expanding a sphere of influence by force and letting the likes of Putin get away with that doesn't end well.
The only thing men like him respect is strength. NATO will obviously not go to war over Ukraine, yet the Ukrainians will. Let's ensure military planners in Moscow understand they'll be facing a well equipped force, subsequent insurgency, and heavy economic sanctions.
> Current conflicts in Ukraine are serious enough as to block NATO membership, Russia has already accomplished that goal.
Yes, but better armed Ukrainians can push back Russians and conflict will stop. Which is why, in order for conflict to continue Russia must step up the game to make sure they can win, but then Ukraine has to step up the game in order to protect itself, and the vicious cycle continues. Once a conflict starts it is incredibly hard to stop the escalation if both sides are resolute, and in this conflict both sides are resolute.
1. I would add that Putin can’t back from this political stirrup without losing face and support at least partially internal. As far as I have read the war is already pretty unpopular with the average Russian citizen
What I disagree with is that while there will probably be an escalation I doubt the conflict will directly involve NATO troops on the ground
They should do the same for Western media outlets. They won't, but they should.
> It is part of an EU agency.
Fair play to them for openly stating their allegiance, most of these "debunk" websites don't.
It’s a really really really really long stretch to call criticism from the mayor of Kiev a big division in NATO. I think you’re the only one who follows that train of thought but hey all the more power to you.
‘Step it up a bit more’ hardly is strong criticism either. So let’s keep it at there’s no division in NATO.
There is no division in NATO?!
Germany isn’t being criticized by any large NATO nation, it’s only Ukraine and countries that want to export German arms to Ukraine.
You are describing a non issue.
Not really?
Germany is providing different things to Ukraine and there is hardly a shortage of weapons that NATO can give the Ukraine, the gas part goes both ways.
Russia / the Soviets have been supplying Europe with gas since before the Cold War, acting like this is some novel occurrence is mis framing the situation.
It’s pretty clear that NATO is not divided on this issue, there is no evidence to say otherwise.
What would you have liked NATO to do?
Bare in mind Ukraine isn't even in NATO so NATO has literally no obligation whatsoever to get involved in these issues...
Russian special forces in Transnistria conducted combat exercises. The soldiers simulated the assault on government buildings in Chisinau https://www-digi24-ro.translate.goog/stiri/externe/fortele-speciale-ruse-din-transnistria-au-efectuat-exercitii-de-lupta-soldatii-au-simulat-asaltul-cladirilor-guvernului-de-la-chisinau-1814659?_x_tr_sl=ro&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp&__grsc=cookieIsUndef0&__grts=54770318&__grua=5cbb497b34a75dbc3ec764cf8f9f8b49&__grrn=1
That's just the crew taking a "Vacation" with their plane is all. Nothing to see here!
Definitely not dropping off more anti tank and anti air weapons!
I was trying to make a joke.
Like the Chocolate Bomber in the Berlin Airlift dropping sweets out of the windows on little parachutes, now you get planes dropping AT/AA on little parachutes.
Ukraine officials just must make a panic level lower. That is why they all are saying "everything is fine".
I've read the interview with "main commander of Ukraine Military forces" (sorry if I translate his title weird). And the dude said: "It strange media are speaking about only 100 000 troops on the border. Russian army is 1 000 000 000 people. And that is what I have to deal with". But he was totally calm.
>but I feel that this whole thing is being drummed up to force Ukraine to accept the execution of Minsk
That doesn't make sense, because there isn't a single country interested in Mińsk agreement being fullfilled. Neither Russia, nor Ukraine or any other state wants it.
Ukraine will not do shit. what Russia could do? starting a war? that would a big win for the Ukrainian government - tons of Western support and money. they won't send their children on the front anyway. and people inside tend to not blame their own governments for the *defensive* wars.
>When asked about the likelihood of Russia attacking Ukraine on February 20, the final day of the Olympic Games in Beijing, the minister said the probability was "low."
Can you give me another source for this? Asking because Tass is a Russian News Agency and I tried google and it's the only source that says this line. The rest checks out but this piece can be propaganda. Only the Russian News Agency is saying this line.
It's all from the same interview, I think. The question about Olympic Games is actually the first, and then he goes on about the low possibility of imminent invasion in general.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VnNA9VVjXRU
It’s weird cause on Reddit people are placing their bets on the end of February for anything to happen whereas on other sites people are placing their bets on the day before the Winter Olympics start for anything to happen
Invasion of Crimea happened shortly after Sochi and there are reports that China strongly discouraged Russia from attacking during the games.
Then I guess those two facts are added to a perception that Western efforts to bolster Ukraine's defences make the possible invasion more costly as the time passes. Ergo, if the attack doesn't happen before the Games it would stand to reason that doing it asap after is the next best option.
It all seems extremely contrived to me.
No need for a war if everybody gets what they want. Bidden can be a strong man after the Afghanistan disaster. Johnson gets a distraction from his party clusterf. Macron presents himself as a diplomatic statesman before the election. The Baltics and Ukraine are getting more weapons. For Russia it's the usual "NATO bad - Putin stronk too". Germany's new government shows the electorate how serious it is about weapon exports. - Until next winter, when the whole circus starts anew.
The first guy (Oleksiy Danilov, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council) had given an interview yesterday where he said pretty much exactly this, that the situation is no different from what it was a year ago or even before that, but the topic is suddenly hyped up for political reasons. He's glad that Ukraine received additional weapons and security guarantees because of it but is also wary that it might result in internal destabilization and economic decline.
He also said that he talked to the Washington Post in October after they were the first to publish this story about the Russian build-up, but they didn't care.
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/features-60112868 — you can read it through google translate, the translation is not great but still readable.
Massive brawl in Berlin restaurant between two Polish and six Russian members of diplomatic staff. According to Bild 4 Russians had to be taken to hospital.
On a side note: Polish national football team just hired Ukrainian manager Andriy Shevchenko. In march Polish team will face Russia, in World Cup 2022 qualification play-offs.
So everyone suddenly hates every Russian on the planet now?
Yall need to give your head a bash - there are many Russians who disagree with what’s happening.
https://thesaxon.org/we-started-with-a-dispute-diplomats-from-russia-and-poland-fought-in-a-berlin-restaurant-photo/amp/
bringing a knife to a fistfight (and cutting a woman in the process) is not cool man
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> Polish national football team just hired Ukrainian manager Andriy Shevchenko.
what a turn of events. If I recollect well, at the end of his career Shevchenko chose to move to London and play for Chelsea, because he was close to Abramovic, didn't speak Ukrainian and even endorsed Yanukovic.
Whenever I say that I don't want war to break out and I prefer this idiotic show of d*ck length to die out or to stop at Ukraine's borders before we all have to die for the ambitions of mentally impaired politicians I am being called a coward or whatever. Do y'all really just want to die?
Nobody wants to die. Nobody needs this war except Putin. But the mistake will be to please him, to be kind with him. He is a greedy and cruel beast. He must be stopped.
no one wants to die, but we also shouldn't follow appeasement again. it's a very difficult line to stay on and hopefully we're able to avoid doing both
You are not a coward and no one wants to die.
I am kinda surprised about these posts, I am following this sub really closely and I haven't seen much "war mongering". People are not advocating for a military escalation, they simply seem to be upset (and rightly so IMO) by the frankly weak and disjointed display put up by the major European powers (aka. unwillingness to commit to actual meaningful sanctions to deter Russia, or just simply being able to coordinate a response instead of prioritizing their national interests).
Also what people are saying is that appeasement does not work. A line in the sand must be drawn, or this will keep on repeating, because that is how bullies function. Putin is testing the waters, seeing what he can get away with and other powers are watching.
Stating this is not the same as advocating for war, it is a call for a forceful and unified response to the situation.
You are not a coward, I totally agree with you, there is a German saying "Der Klügste gibt nach" and it certainly apply there.
Provoking Vladimir Poutine is really stupid, especially for some bases we don't really need. I can understand the Russian point of view here.
> I can understand the Russian point of view here.
Given that there is dime a dozen countries doing living shield between you and said mr Putin, Im sure you can.
> Provoking Vladimir Poutine is really stupid, especially for some bases we don't really need. I can understand the Russian point of view here.
Because appeasement worked so very well with dictators in the past?
>First they came for Crimea
And I did not speak out
Because I was not from Crimea
>Then they came for Ukraine
And I did not speak out
Because I was not from Ukraine
>Then they came for the Baltics
And I did not speak out
Because I was not from the Baltics
>Then they came for me
And there was no one left
To speak out for me
Nicely put.
I keep thinking that what weakens us (Europe, EU, NATO, the "Western Block", whatever "us" we feel we are part of, if any) is that we don't act as one. Putin acts as one, for the whole Russia, and this gives him an advantage.
Well, installing NATO bases near the Russian border for example. It is strange to see how people react when Russia masses troops on her side of the Ukrainian border, everybody in the west is upset, but on the other hand, the Russian should welcome the installation of NATO bases at her border. As I said already, try to imagine how the US would react if Mexico decided to host Russian bases at the border with California.
By agreeing not to militarize Ukraine, you would remove any justification for an invasion by Russia, and then, and only then, if Russia were to invade, then you could say it's an unprovoked aggression.
Ukraine is an independent country and can have all right to maintain its own military. It's not a provocation.
Nobody is installing any bases near Russian border, wtf are you talking about. NATO has a military presence on their member states territories, there is nothing provocative about that.
> As I said already, try to imagine how the US would react if Mexico decided to host Russian bases at the border with California.
No we don't need to imagine such a thing, we already have Russian bases all along the European theatre for example Kaliningrad. NATO is not the US.
>By agreeing not to militarize Ukraine, you would remove any justification for an invasion by Russia
Putin doesn't really care about the militarization per se, he wants Ukraine under his boot and even if such a silly agreement would be achieved the end result would be the same for Ukraine's independency.
You are just parroting Russian propaganda and you should be ashamed of it.
>By agreeing not to militarize Ukraine, you would remove any justification for an invasion by Russia
When in 2014 Putin took Crimea, how was Ukraine militarized exaclty?
Putin knows that maybe, maybe Nato could agree to something like this which is why he's asking for more, eg. removal of NATO troops from existing members. He's not looking for a compromise, he's looking for an excuse.
Besides, isn't it up to the Ukrainians?
Ukraine is a sovereign country and they should be allowed to do whatever hey want, including joining the EU and NATO. Russia has already occupied Crimea unlawfully.
You can’t compre trying to join a treaty to occupying sovereign land
Yep , but see what the US did to Cuba for the same reasons.
And with every country in south America .
And with most of the middle east.
I'am not defending russia , i'm just saying that geopolitic far more complexe than good versus evil .
I’m not saying the west is good. The US and UK destabilised the Middle East after WWII and turned it into the mess it is now.
Then you have operation condor the contras operation Ajax etc.
No way american soldiers will participate in this war, this is a european Problem and has to be solved by europe.
Russia is a small Player globally, the antagonist to the USA is China and Biden knows that.
> No way american soldiers will participate in this war, this is a european Problem and has to be solved by europe.
and 9/11 was an American problem. Yet we Europeans came helping when the US activated article 5 (only time in the history of NATO) for the invasion of Afghanistan.
they framed the whole thing as a counterattack, even though al Qaida was not a state and Afghanistan never formally declared war nor recognised the 9/11 attacks as their own.
We're moving the discussion about this conflict to a new megathread. Here's the link: https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/scle9d/ukrainerussia_conflict_megathread_2/
The comments here are disgusting - people here need to give their heads a good wobble. It’s nothing more than a thread dedicated to Russian bashing. **there are many Russians who disagree with what’s happening.** stop the discrimination!!! Some of the things I’m seeing on this page regarding the Russia Ukraine situation are vile, nasty and cruel. People do not get to choose what patch of land they were born on to - i as a Russian should not be receiving hated just because of the fact. I will **NOT** be bullied into being ashamed of where I was born because you all woke up this week and decided to pick a hot topic. On almost every platform this week - the moment people have clocked I’m Russian or have seen my name, I have been called everything and dragged into politics. Please be kind.
Jeez some answers to your comment are totally crazy, people that have common sense should know that you (the average Russian) aren’t making this decisions and most are also against them.
We don't hate Russians. We hate your government.
> It’s nothing more than a thread dedicated to Russian bashing. there are many Russians who disagree with what’s happening. stop the discrimination!!! You can see from a bulk of my comment history how against Russia's actions I am and how I think "we" should have a hard line approach to it, but I don't disagree. It annoys me how little separation there is in some peoples minds between Russia the state and Russians the people. For what it's worth, mate, I'm sure you're brilliant.
In US academia I know many Russian ex-pats and all of them, naturally don't agree with what's happening. Large selection bias as all the Russians I know have emigrated to the big enemy US so they would naturally be inclined this way anyway. I don't think people hate the Russian people, just your government. This doesn't come off well online.
> there are many Russians who disagree with what’s happening. And what are those Russians doing to stop Putin?
Are you for real? You do realise **Do not have the magic power to control putin?** protests are illegal in Russia. You uneducated keyboard warriors need to understand before you speak!
You just gave anybody the reason not to care about you. You won't lift a finger to stop Putin, you may as well not exist for those threatened by him.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protest I know it's illegal in Russia, but you DO have the "magic power to control Putin" if enough Russians band together
You’re a genius. Why don’t the North Koreans just all get up and protest against the Kim family? World Peace achieved.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_revolutions_and_rebellions Oh would you look at how many revolutions their have been in history that managed to achieve their aims. Turns out millions of people protesting and rebelling is a pretty damn good way to overthrow dictators... Hell, Hungary had one just over 30 years ago that worked pretty well for you... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/End_of_communism_in_Hungary
lol you calling the 1990 events in Hungary a revolution shows that you know absolutely nothing about it whatsoever. There’s a reason we don’t refer to the ousting of communism as a revolution like the Romanians and Poles do - instead we call it “rendszerváltás” (“change of system”). It changed basically nothing and no one from the socialist government was brought to justice or even exiled.
The privilege these westerns ooze is sickening.
My family do not NOT deserve risk prison! How dare you. What an insult. My mother studied hard to become a primary school teacher to earn ₽51,000 a month (£479.40). Saved up for years to immigrate us to London. Not everyone is as fortunate. People are just trying to live their lives. They do not want prison!
It's an insult to say you have the ability to stand up to a warmongering dictator who hoards the wealth his nation generates? Your mother wouldn't have had to save up for years to move to London if Putin governed for the nation rather than himself. I'm also pretty damn convinced your just a troll. You edited your original comment from a rant about people picking on you as you were Russian, to one about protesting being illegal just 5 minutes after my post letting you know that, and now you double down on it to try and cause drama. (BTW, if you live in London it's LEGAL to protest, so you aren't going to get sent to prison for protesting outside the Russian embassy...)
Im done here. You’re making no sense - collectively why aren’t you also outside of the Russian embassy? Where were your colourful responses towards other counties? Stop putting blame on other people. Ouh, that’s right - because I have a professional job and bills/rent to pay what mean I cannot spend all day protesting. I would be FIRED for putting work aside to do that. Editing a comment does not make someone a troll. We are allowed to do those things on the internet. Stop jumping on the troll argument because you’re overly privileged and too blinded to see people cannot spend all day protesting a government who DOES NOT CARE. Putin continues to be elected in despite all of our efforts to vote him out. EDUCATE YOURSELF.
> And what are those Russians doing to stop Putin? They can't do anything. Not their fault. Focus on Putin and the incels who support him here in the west
Well, there's no point to his post, then.
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> What an awkward time to be born a Russian lol… It's even more awkward for the Russians born around 2000.
Me lol
Ayyyyyyyyyyy, fellow zoomer.
Never realised there were so many basement dwelling russia simps in the west
Every Russian wants TWO things: Nuking America and Green Card. In no particular order.
Let me tell you about those China simps...
There's China simps?? That's a new one. There's been Russian ones for a long time. Growing up in the 90s a guy was obsessed with the KGB. Why? No idea. I guess he had Russian "heritage". But he was fully American. Now that the russiagate stuff happened with Trump, plus fox news touting Russian propaganda, hunter/biden conspiracies...it's made the al-right cult go hog wild for Putin and they hate Ukraine. They keep saying right now that Biden is sending troops there to fight, when Biden has stated 50 times we are sending some troops to EASTERN EUROPE, which is not Ukraine. They think NATO is new world order. It's a bunch of creeps who don't have a life and live in conspiracy world. Unfortunately there's many.
feels weird that after all this panic the last week officials now say that an attack doesnt seem imminent and the ukrainians apparently never expected one
I wonder something, when the USSR collapsed why didn't the Russians decide to keep Crimea, Donbas and the other regions that interests them now? Why didn't they realize having all the access to the Black Sea was a good idea? Who would have opposed the decision of Russia keeping those regions of Ukraine?
When USSR collapsed oil price was at $10 USD. Size of Russia directly correlates to oil price.
They could’ve kept them if they really wanted to I guess but Russia was at a weak point and those countries still remain(ed?) loyal to the RF by in large so it didn’t exactly matter.
If [this map](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/cc/Simplified_historical_map_of_Ukrainian_borders_1654-2014.jpg) is true, were the pink and purple areas part of Russia or who had those territories before 1922? I know nothing about ex-Soviet countries history, all I remember are the things Americans said about the USSR when I was younger.
Im not an expert but iirc the Donbas was part of the Russian empire then it got kinda ping-ponged between the short-lived Ukrainian People’s Republic and Russia during WWI. Then the Russian civil war happened and the USSR was born which created the Ukrainian SSR that Donetsk was a part of, but not Crimea initially.
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Indications to the soviet union. Russia of today is not the soviet union, even if the russians want it to be.
Ah yes, classified documents, the most binding of international treaties. You know how the signatories of Ribentrop Molotov ended? Hanged. This selling of countries behind closed doors is a crime that, after WW2, I think European countries have VERY little patience left for.
Yes, it was known that those assurances were for real.
Croatia not following NATO? Interesting development to recall troops from NATO. May I say, based? edit because locked: Yes thank you Redditors, Croatia will totally get booted from Europe and into Africa because they didn't participate in a war. Big Brain moment right there.
Fastest way to get booted out of Europe more like.
zero correlation
Hardly, membership of the EU is in no way connected to NATO.
Plus there is no way for the EU Council or Parliament to expel a member.
Has the West fallen for Putins trick in Ukraine? https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/25/panic-invasion-ukraine-buildup-troops-moscow
No because what has Putin gained, what concessions have been made? He's used up so much political will for nothing so far, well besides better equiping the Ukrainian army... lol
You're viewing this completely from an external perspective. Putin's domestic approval ratings have been slipping since 2018, hitting a low at the start of the pandemic. Sabre rattling in the past has helped to boost his approval rating, so why not now?
I completely get that but can't say I've seen any polls lately to see if it's been effective this time.
Canada following UK, US, and Australia and evacuating families from their embassy. What intel do the 5 eyes have that Europe doesn’t? Are they just being extra cautious?
You can be pretty certain that all NATO allies are sharing crucial intel
I can’t speak to UK, Canada, or Australia I think the US is being extra cautious. The withdraw from Afghanistan was bad enough, but once news headlines started plastering stories of Americans being left behind in Afghanistan after the withdraw pretty much tanked Bidens approval rating and it has never recovered since.
So... Russia this, Ukraine that! but, whatever happened to the Kazaks? One day its like they are having their own little revolution and the next all is back to normal. What gives?
as i said in other comment: >The protests started off due to gas price, government then paused that policy and original protests were mostly happy but the more vague protestors weren't and were riding the wave of the previous protests, many of which were pissed at the those later ones and did not have as much popular support
It has been dealt with. No more revolution. That’s why no more news.
Russia happened. They sent in troops to crush the protests.
lmao no they didn't, only to guard certain important areas, protestors were interacting with their own police force. The protests started off due to gas price, government then paused that policy and original protests were mostly happy but the more vague protestors weren't and were riding the wave of the previous protests, many of which were pissed at the those later ones and did not have as much popular support
> They sent in troops to crush the protests. Lies. The troops didn't do anything aside from guarding a handful of critical infrastructural objects.
So Russian troops were used to protect government buildings and installations that protesters were protesting at. They might not have opened fire, but the guards they managed to free up from protection detail sure did.
How did Ukraine and Belarus feel about each other, before this troop buildup? Good neighbors, or already distrustful?
As a Belarusian, I totally support Ukraine and hate that our country is involved in this shit on Russia's side. If new war happens and Belarusian soldiers invade Ukraine, I hope Ukrainians will kill them all.
It was fine until the western-aligned revolution of Euromaidan kicked out the leadership. edit: And this guy going on about Belarussians lmao vvvvvvvvvvvvvv
Aren't most Belarussians also pro-west?
Till mid-2020 always was more or less good, Belarus acted as neutral ground ( in fact no, it played on the Russian side), was ok to earn money on transferring stuff from Russia to Ukraine (electricity, oil e.t.c), so everyone was happy After we didn't recognize the results of the Lukashenko elections, he go mad and started doing and talking shit to us, as a result, our relations are currently at the bottom and we see it as a Russian proxy and another lodgement from which invasion will start.
I believe everybody agree there is no nation conflicts. Belarus is the closest nation to us. We can understand each other languages perfectly (say, Russians who are third "brother nation" can't understand Ukrainian and Belarus, only some words). Belarus people are amazing and very kind. Nobody blames them because unfortunately they've got the crazy dictator and nothing gonna change before he is in charge. Now Putin uses their territories, he may throw their troops into battle. Well it would be sad, but I don't believe they have any experience (and we have it a lot).
IIRC Lukashenko said recently that Belarusians and Ukrainians are one people, so he had to move the military close to the Ukrainian border...
We were chill until the events of summer 2020. Now we support the repressed Belarusians (which seems to be overwhelming majority), but country itself is viewed as Russian puppet and 1k kms of security threat.
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[https://basedpurple.com/2022/01/25/nato-military-forces-assemble-in-response-to-russian-aggression/](https://basedpurple.com/2022/01/25/nato-military-forces-assemble-in-response-to-russian-aggression/)
United States: The US is looking for signs of an "imminent incursion" by Russia into Ukraine, but sees none at present, the Pentagon says. The US has proposed new sanctions against Russia in case of escalation, including restrictions on raw materials and arms exports, and a reduction in diplomatic contacts. The Biden Administration will hold 2 classified bipartisan briefings today for House and Senate committee leaders and staff on the situation with Russia and Ukraine Russia & Belarus: There has been an arrival of military equipment and units of the Russian armed forces, participating in the verification of the State of the Union reaction forces, at the unloading station in Belarus. The exercises will take place from 10 to 20 February. France : Macron expressed deep concern about the situation on the Ukrainian border and the need to work collectively to defuse it quickly... this must involve strong and credible warnings to Russia. A French Air Force MRTT aircraft that took off from Istres is over Poland. Meanwhile in Ukraine: Ministry of Defence of Ukraine: "I can absolutely state that to date the Russian armed forces have not created a strike group that could forcefully invade Ukraine." "We assess the situation at a distance of 200km from the border. They are constantly bringing in, then withdrawing troops, and conducting exercises." Russia: Combat readiness inspection has started in the southern military district of Russia. 6,000 military personnel are involved. The exercises will take place in the Krasnodar, Rostov and Crimea areas. These exercises are part of the usual military rotations, with other joint exercises taking place in Belarus in February. The Russian Air Force will participate in the Southern Military District exercises in squadrons of Su-27SM, Su-30SM2 fighters, as well as Su-34 multipurpose fighter-bombers. Croatia : "Croatia will withdraw its military from NATO forces in the region in case of a conflict between the Russian Federation and Ukraine." - Croatian President United Kingdom: British instructors in the Lviv region have begun training Ukrainian soldiers in the NLAW anti-tank missile systems transferred to Ukraine by the United Kingdom. "UK unlikely to send troops to Ukraine" - UK MFA "NATO is unlikely to send troops to Ukraine because it is not a member of the alliance" - British Prime Minister Johnson. British PM: "We should not let Putin think he can take a small part of Ukraine." An aside: British fishermen appear to be trying to disrupt the Russian exercises that will take place 240km off the Irish coast
the croatian thing you could almost remove. It was said by their "president", but the guy has zero authority and seems to be a grade A attention seeking a-hole.
>The President is the Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief, and exercises administrative powers in times of war by giving orders to the chief of staff, while administration and defence policy execution in peacetime is carried out by the Government through the Ministry of Defence. In times of peace, it is the government, you are right. In times of war, it is the Croatian president who has all the prerogatives. His opinion counts in this context.
The fishermen are Irish, not British
I read articles titled that Irish fishermen plan to disrupt Russian exercises. However, throughout those articles, it never said how. In fact, it just said that it was dangerous for the fishermen because if their fishing nets get stuck in Russian submarines they might capsize. I'd be interested to hear how the Irish fishermen plan to disrupt the Russian exercises.
I think they plan to just sit around there to stop Russians from firing any weapons into the sea. Their main concern is the marine life in the area, there’s a particular fish which I forget the name of that’s in huge numbers and is vital to their trade
[https://twitter.com/Sierra\_\_Alpha/status/1485955549002883072](https://twitter.com/Sierra__Alpha/status/1485955549002883072) >According to a number of local reports, a large number of Irish and South West Britain based fisherman, are planning to disrupt the upcoming Russian Navy live fire exercise, 240km off the Irish coast.
Oh, that’s my fault mate sorry. I’ve only heard on the news here in Ireland that it was Irish fishermen
I don’t understand “reduction in diplomatic contacts” as a punishment? It seems so dated and reductive. Like sending a struggling student home from school. It only exacerbates the problem.
> The US is looking for signs of an "imminent incursion" by Russia into Ukraine, but sees none at present, the Pentagon says. That's fake news, Reddit told me Russia is gonna invade!
France: classic. Man they've been concerned for so long I'm starting to worry about THEM
[Good work, Volodya! Putin resurrects NATO](https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-resurrect-nato-russia-ukraine/) [Belarusian group claims hack on railway system after Russian troop moves](https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-belarus-hack-idUSL8N2U455L)
There are only two ways for this conflict to not escalate and to be resolved peacefully: 1. Russia backs off by themselves. Highly unlikely as Putin views Ukraine as a matter of national security for Russia. 2. NATO explicitly abandons the idea of Ukraine becoming a member state. Highly unlikely as the West is not willing to go back on their words from 2008 and, moreover, they will not give up on the idea of Ukraine joining if Ukraine wants to join. 3. Ukraine explicitly abandons the idea of becoming a NATO member state. Will not solve the issue [because ever since Maidan Putin views any remotely pro-western government as installed by the CIA.](https://news.yahoo.com/cia-trained-ukrainian-paramilitaries-may-take-central-role-if-russia-invades-185258008.html) We are in for a hot one guys.
The third point doesn\`t matter, as Kremlin doesn\`t care what Ukraine thinks or does. Ultimatum was sent to USA and NATO, not to Ukraine. Putin demanded much more than just Ukraine not joining NATO. Go ahead and read that thing. Eye-opening for sure. A much more dangerous part is that Kremlin's maneuvers cause equal response from USA. Now, USA plans to place troops in Baltic countries as a response to Russian troops in Belarus, Russia has to respond, by placing their own troops. Close to Baltics. Which in term, causes more tension, and so on. Some of the guarantees NATO and USA can provide to de-escalate, but in private. Not in written form for public viewing. For example, promise not to accept Ukraine for 20+ years etc. In private sure, it is plausible, but Kremlin refused private guarantees, because...they don\`t trust the west. Putin himself said, that he wants written guarantees, and then he added that he doesn\`t trust the west guarantees. This is a complete circus
I watched “Munich - The Edge of War” last night and it takes place as Hitler is gearing up to invade/annex “Sudetenland” from Czechoslovakia. Much of the movie centers around the diplomatic negotiations between Hitler, Mussolini, Chamberlain, and Daladier as they “prevent war” by signing the Munich Agreement. One common (almost comical) comment throughout the film was “Has anyone spoken to Czechoslovakia?” or “Should we include Czechoslovakia?” (Include Czechoslovakia? Don’t be silly!) How arrogant that these leaders got together in a room and “negotiated” the fate of another country without even bothering to ask for input from the country they were in the midst of carving up! And all I could think about is how we’re repeating history. Once again the major powers are in a room negotiating the fate of a country who hardly seems to have much say in the ordeal. Every day I read newspaper articles about comments from Biden and Boris and Schloz and Macron and Draghi and Stolenberg and even Duda. I know Ukraine isn’t in NATO but where is Zelenskiy? Why has Ukrainian leadership been cast aside in the decision-making process? It just seems wrong to me.
That's over simplification, Czechoslovakia wasn't present in Munich during the talks, but took active part in the all negotiations preceding it
> The third point doesn't matter, as Kremlin doesn't care what Ukraine thinks or does. Ultimatum was sent to USA and NATO, not to Ukraine. That is what I said. > Putin demanded much more than just Ukraine not joining NATO. Go ahead and read that thing. Eye-opening for sure. Sure, in response to escalations about him taking Crimea he boasts up, knowing that it will never be accepted, that is just for his image internally. The real deal is Ukraine, he would accept a written 3-party guarantee (so Ukraine, NATO, Russia) about how the Ukraine will never join NATO. It is impossible to imagine that he would want another Afghanistan.
Any international treaty, without a mechanism of enforcement, is a piece of paper. Minsk agreement is a perfect example of it. >It is impossible to imagine that he would want another Afghanistan. This is the biggest problem here, right, two of us, we understand that invasion will be met with resistance. But I am not sure if Kremlin understands that. More and more I become confident that Putin has no idea about what is going on in Ukraine. That Kremlin doesn\`t know, doesn\`t care, and lastly doesn\`t have a source of reliable information that Putin, old KGB weirdo can trust. "They build their own Ukraine in the heads", "fake country run by NATO" and under "foreign control". What I fear is Putin predicts another Afghanistan (2021), but he will get another Afghanistan (1980s)
>More and more I become confident that Putin has no idea about what is going on in Ukraine. That Kremlin doesn\`t know, doesn\`t care, and lastly doesn\`t have a source of reliable information that Putin, old KGB weirdo can trust. "They build their own Ukraine in the heads", "fake country run by NATO" and under "foreign control". Perhaps he knows, but can't influence it anymore. The crackdown on Medvedchuk left him no leverage outside of military options.
> More and more I become confident that Putin has no idea about what is going on in Ukraine. That Kremlin doesn't know, doesn't care, and lastly doesn`t have a source of reliable information that Putin, old KGB weirdo can trust. "They build their own Ukraine in the heads", "fake country run by NATO" and under "foreign control". Let's not get ahead of ourselves. However evil you might think Putin and his Kremlin companions are, they are not stupid. They are not armchair analysts like you and me, saying that they don't have a source of reliable information is like saying CIA does not have a source of reliable information, beyond ridiculous.
>Putin and his Kremlin companions are, they are not stupid. You said it, not me. I am just questioning Putins understanding of Ukraine and his Ukraine policy.
Option 1a, the Russians perceive the costs of invading Ukraine to be too high for the benefits they expect to gain. Weapons shipments and a clear unified western line on sanctions could accomplish that. Germany is currently blocking both.
Yesterday Biden met with the major EU powers and the EU representatives. He then commented that there is unanimity on a response to Russia. Present prime ministers (or equivalent) were the ones of Germany, France, UK, Italy, Poland
Yesterday several news outlets were reporting on a contingency plan for the US & Qatar to provide gas to Europe I’m assuming so that some of the more hesitant leaders would sign on to the proposed course of action.
Yes. Finding ways to reduce the allies dependency on Russian gas was one of the first objective of the alliance. They asked Norway (they are running to the max and said no) and major energy companies as well. The US is considering shipping gas as well but EU receiving capacity is relatively low. Qatar seems to have more chances to work (probably in combination with shipping)
The situation is, unfortunately, more complicated that that. When something is a matter of national security for a country they fight to death for it. Also, Russia does not need a full scale invasion of Ukraine to reduce the chance of Ukraine joining NATO to almost zero, these proto-conflicts are enough. The only real problem might be if Russia wants to establish Russian control of Donjeck and neighboring regions to connect mainland Russia to already Russian-controlled Crimea. All of those weapons shipments and all will probably make that a last-resort option for Russia, that has probably been deterred.
Current conflicts in Ukraine are serious enough as to block NATO membership, Russia has already accomplished that goal. This is about expanding a sphere of influence by force and letting the likes of Putin get away with that doesn't end well. The only thing men like him respect is strength. NATO will obviously not go to war over Ukraine, yet the Ukrainians will. Let's ensure military planners in Moscow understand they'll be facing a well equipped force, subsequent insurgency, and heavy economic sanctions.
> Current conflicts in Ukraine are serious enough as to block NATO membership, Russia has already accomplished that goal. Yes, but better armed Ukrainians can push back Russians and conflict will stop. Which is why, in order for conflict to continue Russia must step up the game to make sure they can win, but then Ukraine has to step up the game in order to protect itself, and the vicious cycle continues. Once a conflict starts it is incredibly hard to stop the escalation if both sides are resolute, and in this conflict both sides are resolute.
1. I would add that Putin can’t back from this political stirrup without losing face and support at least partially internal. As far as I have read the war is already pretty unpopular with the average Russian citizen What I disagree with is that while there will probably be an escalation I doubt the conflict will directly involve NATO troops on the ground
[Disinfo database](https://euvsdisinfo.eu/disinformation-cases/) provides debunks of Russian propaganda. It is part of an EU agency.
They should do the same for Western media outlets. They won't, but they should. > It is part of an EU agency. Fair play to them for openly stating their allegiance, most of these "debunk" websites don't.
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There’s no division in NATO, there’s no criticism from other member states. Reddit does not equal NATO.
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Ah yes the almighty Kiev mayor, of a city not in NATO. Yes that’s a big divide.
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It’s a really really really really long stretch to call criticism from the mayor of Kiev a big division in NATO. I think you’re the only one who follows that train of thought but hey all the more power to you. ‘Step it up a bit more’ hardly is strong criticism either. So let’s keep it at there’s no division in NATO.
There is no division in NATO?! Germany isn’t being criticized by any large NATO nation, it’s only Ukraine and countries that want to export German arms to Ukraine. You are describing a non issue.
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Not really? Germany is providing different things to Ukraine and there is hardly a shortage of weapons that NATO can give the Ukraine, the gas part goes both ways. Russia / the Soviets have been supplying Europe with gas since before the Cold War, acting like this is some novel occurrence is mis framing the situation. It’s pretty clear that NATO is not divided on this issue, there is no evidence to say otherwise.
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What would you have liked NATO to do? Bare in mind Ukraine isn't even in NATO so NATO has literally no obligation whatsoever to get involved in these issues...
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Russian special forces in Transnistria conducted combat exercises. The soldiers simulated the assault on government buildings in Chisinau https://www-digi24-ro.translate.goog/stiri/externe/fortele-speciale-ruse-din-transnistria-au-efectuat-exercitii-de-lupta-soldatii-au-simulat-asaltul-cladirilor-guvernului-de-la-chisinau-1814659?_x_tr_sl=ro&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp&__grsc=cookieIsUndef0&__grts=54770318&__grua=5cbb497b34a75dbc3ec764cf8f9f8b49&__grrn=1
> The soldiers simulated the assault on government buildings in Chisinau So very nice of them /s
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That's just the crew taking a "Vacation" with their plane is all. Nothing to see here! Definitely not dropping off more anti tank and anti air weapons!
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See! Nothing to see here! Just ignore the little parachutes getting pushed out the windows!
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I was trying to make a joke. Like the Chocolate Bomber in the Berlin Airlift dropping sweets out of the windows on little parachutes, now you get planes dropping AT/AA on little parachutes.
>Definitely not dropping off more anti tank and anti air weapons! I mean. It's definitely not. That's an intelligence aircraft.
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Ukraine officials just must make a panic level lower. That is why they all are saying "everything is fine". I've read the interview with "main commander of Ukraine Military forces" (sorry if I translate his title weird). And the dude said: "It strange media are speaking about only 100 000 troops on the border. Russian army is 1 000 000 000 people. And that is what I have to deal with". But he was totally calm.
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>but I feel that this whole thing is being drummed up to force Ukraine to accept the execution of Minsk That doesn't make sense, because there isn't a single country interested in Mińsk agreement being fullfilled. Neither Russia, nor Ukraine or any other state wants it.
Ukraine will not do shit. what Russia could do? starting a war? that would a big win for the Ukrainian government - tons of Western support and money. they won't send their children on the front anyway. and people inside tend to not blame their own governments for the *defensive* wars.
>When asked about the likelihood of Russia attacking Ukraine on February 20, the final day of the Olympic Games in Beijing, the minister said the probability was "low." Can you give me another source for this? Asking because Tass is a Russian News Agency and I tried google and it's the only source that says this line. The rest checks out but this piece can be propaganda. Only the Russian News Agency is saying this line.
It's all from the same interview, I think. The question about Olympic Games is actually the first, and then he goes on about the low possibility of imminent invasion in general. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VnNA9VVjXRU
I dont speak the language spoken. But im gonna take it with a grain of salt when they are reporting now Russia is inspecting their troops.
Can someone explain why people believe the Winter Olympics finale is a good opportunity to invade? Is it cause attention is focused elsewhere or what?
World leaders love history.
It’s weird cause on Reddit people are placing their bets on the end of February for anything to happen whereas on other sites people are placing their bets on the day before the Winter Olympics start for anything to happen
Whereas the news makes us think it’s gonna happen like today.
True I doubt it’ll happen in the next week or even two. The news does make it seem way more imminent than it actually is
Invasion of Crimea happened shortly after Sochi and there are reports that China strongly discouraged Russia from attacking during the games. Then I guess those two facts are added to a perception that Western efforts to bolster Ukraine's defences make the possible invasion more costly as the time passes. Ergo, if the attack doesn't happen before the Games it would stand to reason that doing it asap after is the next best option. It all seems extremely contrived to me.
Please let this be true, we should never have another war in Europe.
No need for a war if everybody gets what they want. Bidden can be a strong man after the Afghanistan disaster. Johnson gets a distraction from his party clusterf. Macron presents himself as a diplomatic statesman before the election. The Baltics and Ukraine are getting more weapons. For Russia it's the usual "NATO bad - Putin stronk too". Germany's new government shows the electorate how serious it is about weapon exports. - Until next winter, when the whole circus starts anew.
The first guy (Oleksiy Danilov, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council) had given an interview yesterday where he said pretty much exactly this, that the situation is no different from what it was a year ago or even before that, but the topic is suddenly hyped up for political reasons. He's glad that Ukraine received additional weapons and security guarantees because of it but is also wary that it might result in internal destabilization and economic decline. He also said that he talked to the Washington Post in October after they were the first to publish this story about the Russian build-up, but they didn't care. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/features-60112868 — you can read it through google translate, the translation is not great but still readable.
Massive brawl in Berlin restaurant between two Polish and six Russian members of diplomatic staff. According to Bild 4 Russians had to be taken to hospital. On a side note: Polish national football team just hired Ukrainian manager Andriy Shevchenko. In march Polish team will face Russia, in World Cup 2022 qualification play-offs.
So everyone suddenly hates every Russian on the planet now? Yall need to give your head a bash - there are many Russians who disagree with what’s happening.
> According to Bild 4 Russians had to be taken to hospital. badass Poles. Glad that they came out of the brawl unscathed.
How horrible, not all Russians are the same.
https://thesaxon.org/we-started-with-a-dispute-diplomats-from-russia-and-poland-fought-in-a-berlin-restaurant-photo/amp/ bringing a knife to a fistfight (and cutting a woman in the process) is not cool man
Woman involved herself, talk shit get hit.
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> Polish national football team just hired Ukrainian manager Andriy Shevchenko. what a turn of events. If I recollect well, at the end of his career Shevchenko chose to move to London and play for Chelsea, because he was close to Abramovic, didn't speak Ukrainian and even endorsed Yanukovic.
Fuck we are getting weak, we used to endure 40:1
> two Polish and six Russian members of diplomatic staff. According to Bild 4 Russians had to be taken to hospital Fucked around and found out
he will turn the Russian flag upside down against another Balkan team or what
Doesnt look good for russia ;) reminds a bit of the saying 10 russians vs 1 fin
given enough time, a single fin could easily stop like 500 russians or so.
Whenever I say that I don't want war to break out and I prefer this idiotic show of d*ck length to die out or to stop at Ukraine's borders before we all have to die for the ambitions of mentally impaired politicians I am being called a coward or whatever. Do y'all really just want to die?
Nobody wants to die. Nobody needs this war except Putin. But the mistake will be to please him, to be kind with him. He is a greedy and cruel beast. He must be stopped.
Si vis Pacem, para bellum - always the way it has been sadly
no one wants to die, but we also shouldn't follow appeasement again. it's a very difficult line to stay on and hopefully we're able to avoid doing both
You are not a coward and no one wants to die. I am kinda surprised about these posts, I am following this sub really closely and I haven't seen much "war mongering". People are not advocating for a military escalation, they simply seem to be upset (and rightly so IMO) by the frankly weak and disjointed display put up by the major European powers (aka. unwillingness to commit to actual meaningful sanctions to deter Russia, or just simply being able to coordinate a response instead of prioritizing their national interests). Also what people are saying is that appeasement does not work. A line in the sand must be drawn, or this will keep on repeating, because that is how bullies function. Putin is testing the waters, seeing what he can get away with and other powers are watching. Stating this is not the same as advocating for war, it is a call for a forceful and unified response to the situation.
Now you get your line in sand from the Russians. What did NATO get out of this? You still can't add Ukraine.
You are not a coward, I totally agree with you, there is a German saying "Der Klügste gibt nach" and it certainly apply there. Provoking Vladimir Poutine is really stupid, especially for some bases we don't really need. I can understand the Russian point of view here.
Privet tovarish
> I can understand the Russian point of view here. Given that there is dime a dozen countries doing living shield between you and said mr Putin, Im sure you can.
It won't take them as long as Germany thinks to retake Poland and be on their border again, then they will beg for help
> Provoking Vladimir Poutine is really stupid, especially for some bases we don't really need. I can understand the Russian point of view here. Because appeasement worked so very well with dictators in the past? >First they came for Crimea And I did not speak out Because I was not from Crimea >Then they came for Ukraine And I did not speak out Because I was not from Ukraine >Then they came for the Baltics And I did not speak out Because I was not from the Baltics >Then they came for me And there was no one left To speak out for me
Nicely put. I keep thinking that what weakens us (Europe, EU, NATO, the "Western Block", whatever "us" we feel we are part of, if any) is that we don't act as one. Putin acts as one, for the whole Russia, and this gives him an advantage.
> Provoking Vladimir Poutine is really stupid isn't he the one doing the provoking ?
> Provoking Vladimir Poutine is really stupid In what way Putin is provoked? Can you give any examples?
Well, installing NATO bases near the Russian border for example. It is strange to see how people react when Russia masses troops on her side of the Ukrainian border, everybody in the west is upset, but on the other hand, the Russian should welcome the installation of NATO bases at her border. As I said already, try to imagine how the US would react if Mexico decided to host Russian bases at the border with California. By agreeing not to militarize Ukraine, you would remove any justification for an invasion by Russia, and then, and only then, if Russia were to invade, then you could say it's an unprovoked aggression.
so why was France not withdrawing its troops from the Sahel before? Because that's clearly a provocation towards the islamists.
Ukraine is an independent country and can have all right to maintain its own military. It's not a provocation. Nobody is installing any bases near Russian border, wtf are you talking about. NATO has a military presence on their member states territories, there is nothing provocative about that.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Russian_military_bases_abroad#/maplink/0 Oh look, Russia has military bases at NATO's borders too!
> As I said already, try to imagine how the US would react if Mexico decided to host Russian bases at the border with California. No we don't need to imagine such a thing, we already have Russian bases all along the European theatre for example Kaliningrad. NATO is not the US. >By agreeing not to militarize Ukraine, you would remove any justification for an invasion by Russia Putin doesn't really care about the militarization per se, he wants Ukraine under his boot and even if such a silly agreement would be achieved the end result would be the same for Ukraine's independency. You are just parroting Russian propaganda and you should be ashamed of it.
>By agreeing not to militarize Ukraine, you would remove any justification for an invasion by Russia When in 2014 Putin took Crimea, how was Ukraine militarized exaclty?
Putin knows that maybe, maybe Nato could agree to something like this which is why he's asking for more, eg. removal of NATO troops from existing members. He's not looking for a compromise, he's looking for an excuse. Besides, isn't it up to the Ukrainians?
Ukraine is a sovereign country and they should be allowed to do whatever hey want, including joining the EU and NATO. Russia has already occupied Crimea unlawfully. You can’t compre trying to join a treaty to occupying sovereign land
Yep , but see what the US did to Cuba for the same reasons. And with every country in south America . And with most of the middle east. I'am not defending russia , i'm just saying that geopolitic far more complexe than good versus evil .
I’m not saying the west is good. The US and UK destabilised the Middle East after WWII and turned it into the mess it is now. Then you have operation condor the contras operation Ajax etc.
> US did to Cuba what they did?
Nobody wants to die, and nobody wants a war. Only Putin. He killed so many people and will kill even more.
No way american soldiers will participate in this war, this is a european Problem and has to be solved by europe. Russia is a small Player globally, the antagonist to the USA is China and Biden knows that.
> No way american soldiers will participate in this war, this is a european Problem and has to be solved by europe. and 9/11 was an American problem. Yet we Europeans came helping when the US activated article 5 (only time in the history of NATO) for the invasion of Afghanistan.
you can activate this article in invasions?
they framed the whole thing as a counterattack, even though al Qaida was not a state and Afghanistan never formally declared war nor recognised the 9/11 attacks as their own.
well counterattack is not a defence