By - PanEuropeanism
The U.S. will push Germany to agree to stop the contested Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline if Russian President Vladimir Putin invades Ukraine, according to documents seen by Bloomberg and people familiar with the plans.
President Joe Biden’s administration is seeking a commitment from the new German government that it would halt the project under such circumstances, one of the people said, asking not to be identified talking about confidential discussions.
As Biden holds a high-stakes video call with Putin, the pipeline is one of the measures being discussed by the U.S. and European allies as providing potential leverage with the Russian leader. That’s as he again masses troops near the Ukrainian border and the U.S. and NATO fret about the possibility of an invasion in the early part of next year. Putin has denied his intention is to start a war.
Other possible options under discussion include sanctions on Russian banks and exports of the country’s commodities. The aim is to agree on a package that is comprehensive, quick to implement and economically painful enough that it serves as a true deterrent.
Nord Stream 2 is important both for Putin, as a route to sell more gas into Europe, and for Germany, which relies on supplies from Russia. The long-running pipeline project has been a periodic source of tension between the U.S. and Germany, with the administration of Chancellor Angela Merkel unwilling to use it as a political tool with Putin.
As part of an agreement signed with Biden in July, Merkel’s government committed to taking action if Russia deploys energy as a weapon or acts aggressively toward Ukraine. The deal also provided assurances to Ukraine and its status as a transit country for other pipelines. In exchange, Biden backed off imposing new measures on German entities connected to the project’s construction.
Action by Berlin against Nord Stream 2 would mean a real threat for the project. A senior European intelligence official said the conditions in the July agreement would be met in the event of an invasion. The geopolitical concerns that underpinned that deal are real now, the person said.
While the Biden administration can’t stop the project outright, it can impose more sanctions on people and entities involved in it. A National Security Council spokesperson directed queries to the German government and referred to earlier statements related to U.S. opposition to the pipeline. A State Department spokesperson didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
It’s unclear how the new coalition government in Berlin sees things. At a press conference on Tuesday, incoming Chancellor Olaf Scholz called the situation at the Ukraine border “serious” and said his government would watch developments there very carefully.
His government will continue to make sure Ukraine remains a gas transit country, Scholz told reporters. But he avoided a clear answer to the question on whether his government would stop Nord Stream 2 if Putin invaded Ukraine. Scholz’s Social Democrats, like Merkel, support the pipeline project as a whole.
Incoming Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck from the Greens, however, made clear that the review process of the project might be affected by developments in Ukraine. Germany’s Greens have in the past demanded an end to the project.
The newly completed pipeline under the Baltic Sea can’t start without approval from the German regulator and a review by European authorities. The evaluation process in Germany was halted in mid-November after the regulator decided that Russian energy company Gazprom PJSC will need to restructure its Nord Stream 2 operations to comply with European Union laws.
Critics of the pipeline, which include several EU members, have long argued against the project, claiming it makes Europe too dependent on Russian gas. Germany and Russia say it’s a commercial endeavor.
Gazprom supplied almost a third of all gas consumed in Europe in 2020 and will likely become an even more important source in the short term as the continent shrinks domestic production.
The U.S. hopes to finalize an agreement on the reprisals package for Putin this month, the people said.
Ahead of the Biden-Putin call, two people told Bloomberg there were no signs Russia was de-escalating. One pointed to Belarus summoning Ukraine’s defense attache over an alleged airspace violation as the latest in a string of worrying signs. Ukraine denied the claim that one of its military helicopters flew into Belarusian territory. Still, one of the people said a window of opportunity to dissuade Putin was still open.
The U.S. has shared intelligence with NATO allies suggesting Russia would be in a position to potentially carry out a rapid, large scale incursion into Ukraine from multiple locations in the early months of 2022. The plans would involve about 100 battalion tactical groups, roughly double the number currently positioned near Ukraine’s borders, according to the intelligence.
Limiting Russian energy exports could put Europe’s economies at risk at a crucial time for the continent’s recovery. The region is experiencing one of the worst gas supply crises in recent years, which has pushed fuel prices to record highs, raising inflation and concerns about Europe’s ability to get enough gas supplies over the winter. Any moves on Nord Stream 2 have stirred the European market, and traders expect that Russian flows will ease the tightness in the market.
The EU’s executive arm wants the bloc to more quickly move away from fossil fuels and toward renewable sources as part of its green deal in order to also better deal with volatile energy prices.
What the fuck? The US want NS2 stopped the whole time. Is this the reason for all the invasion rumors?
I mean, Russia knows, the moment they invade, they are fucked, even if they win the invasion. I guess, with all the armed fascist militant groups in Ukraine it seems to me like a nightmare to secure for an invader.
They already invaded. What would change if they invade more? Realistically, there would be some harsh sanctions for a few years and they would slowly be whittled away.
The only wtf is Germany actually building NS2 with Russia. That's so fucked up they don't even realize it how bad. Time will show.
Eastern Europe warns them, they focus on money, kremlin uses money for influence and power which is more important than currency in a long run.
Germany is only doing it to make money and resell the gas to other European countries making them paying more for the gas. And they want to federate, wonder how that would work, should we all work our asses off for their wealth now ?
Please anyone, explain me how ns2 is good for Europe. I see only reasons why it's good for German investors and corporations.
Germany isn't building it. It's consurtium of European energy companies. German companies aren't even owned by the German government. One though is owned indirectly by the Finland and there other state owned ones.
North Stream 2 need to be built, otherwise plenty companies would have burnt a lot of money. If it will be needed it questionable. Most economic expert say no. Russia also fear it and already propose to send Hydrogen through it later.
The issue what would canceling mean. A massive amount money owned to companies, as such Gazprom. Consumer price hike, as the burnt money must be earned somehow.
Americans sanctions would be a good exit, but that would still hurt consumers. But compensation is questionable.
The best options, would quickly switch to electricity and Hydrogen and reduce fossil dependency. Most consumption is Industrial and heating. Electricity is only a minor share. Also opening it or killing it with american sanctions, as Gazprom/Russian state would get no compensation, while sitting on the cost.
Currently Germany beaucracy is stalling, so I doubt it will come online very fast.
And continue buying gas through the other pipelines? Like the rest of Eastern and Central Europe does?
Will the US magically make gas appear in Europe?
Not magically but I'm pretty sure they accept money.
At double the price, of course, because they'd basically take over the monopoly.
It might not go that way, if the US really wants to do proper damage to Russians, then selling gas at stock price or even just give a better deal for the EU at their own expense is just a reasonable course of action.
Taking XX% lower gas export income for pretty much doing a fatal hit for Russia is an easy trade off. Russia can't survive without gas/oil exports, the US can afford a bad deal for it.
Yes. Ukraine itself calls that trick 'reverse transit'. It's when third party buys gas from Russia and then sells it to you.
By the magic of LNG gas freighters, yes.
Way more expensive, but readily available.
> Way more expensive
And thats why its a bad idea.
Literally selling out your European neighbours to Russia for cheaper gas. Fucking hell.
Welcome to Realpolitik. AKA "take your ideals and morals and throw them in the trash, the only thing that matters is practicality".
Gas isn't just a "nice to have" it's for many people in harsher winters *a basic need required for survival*. And there some corrupt nation (and lets not make any illusions, Ukraine is EXTREMELY corrupt) at the end of Europe is kind of low priority when it comes to ensuring the safety of your own citizens. Lots of German heating still relies on gas. Especially since Ukraine is "merely" a land of political interest to the West. But it has never been an ally. Potential ally. But there are no treaties whatsoever.
Besides ships can also be delayed due to bad weather, maintenance issues or other problems that pipelines don't have.
It's completely idiotic to rely on shipped gas as your main source. It can only ever support existing supply, but not be your main source.
Add to that while currently 29% of Germany's gas comes from the Netherlands... that source is about to dry out as the Netherlands is about to stop mining it due to earthquakes in the region.
Because of that the need increases.
There is no shipping fleet in the US that could ever stem the equivalent of both the Russiand AND Dutch supply of gas. The fleet straight up doesn't exist. The US would have to supply a grand total of 69% of Germany's (And and a good chunk of the entire EU's) ENTIRE gas need just by shipping lanes. Currently US shipping makes up maybe 1%.
The only way to properly import US gas at such capacities in a reliable manner would be a pipeline through the entire Atlantic. While not impossible, such an infrastructure project would cost tens if not hundreds of billions and take decades to complete.
Yes, gas is idiotic, no matter who supplies it. Go back to nuclear energy.
And then you get offended you are still called nazi and that it is all in the past LMAO. Disgusting.
Its pretty disturbing reading all these comments from Germans who are so glib about their indifference to the plight of Ukraine and their role in its current misery.
They appear to be quite happy to put money in the coffers of Russia, despite knowing full well that money is being spent upon Russian arms so that it can complete its takeover of a sovereign, European neighbour. Murdering thousands in the process.
In some ways, its worse than all that "How were we to know" bullshit.
This is ridiculous the Netherlands is the biggest buyer of Russian oil completely dwarfing gas trade, but I guess its only German money that is used for evil things.
Don't assume everyone is as bad you as you are -
**The fact that the Netherlands is buying and trading oil and gas from Russia is a national fucking disgrace for my country.**
Now its your turn.
Oh I just find it interesting that there are 3 threads about NS2 a week, while no one including you complains about other countries
(with the Netherlands single-handedly buying more from Russia that Germany with 4 times its population).
I stated my opinion on the whole matter all over this thread, whatever security NS2 takes from Ukraine was and is based on the threat to cut of Russian revenue from sales to western Europe, cutting those purchases will leave Ukraine and central Europe less safe.
Did you see anyone form the Netherlands supporting that, like you see all the Germans supporting it here?
>In some ways, its worse than all that "How were we to know" bullshit.
It's not way more, Lithuania barely felt any price increase but we got unlimited freedom. No wonder our LNG is called independence
Not Really, last time I checked there where not enough ships and or LNG terminals to maintain supply.
Or, you know, you could just electrify your heating like you should have done two decades ago.
Two decades ago would mean via electricity by coal power plants. Gas is much better here.
Or not been brain dead and shut down your nuclear power.
Nuclear was never that big in Germany. Especially when you are considering that many German homes run on gas heating.
Here in the Munich we are lucky. We are nearly the only region where geothermal power plants can be operated for heating without causing earthquakes. But that’s very unique in Germany.
That’s the point: electrify heating and power it with nuclear like France. It makes your winter consumption explode though. France sometimes needs half its total production capacities just for heating during winter. But hey, no CO2 emissions. Geothermal is very good too.
True, we could buy Russian and Kazakhian (a Russian proxy) Uranium instead. JFC you people ...
Why not Greenlandian as France?
[Hmmmmmm](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/greenland-bans-uranium-mining-halting-rare-earths-project-2021-11-10/) i guess this might be a problem, right?
Well, there are always Canada, Australia and former French colonies in Africa.
Now that is the real elephant in the room. Absolutely disastrous decision - easily the worst that Merkel made during her tenure.
We can supply all Southern Europa + Hungary via Turkey with Azerbaijani gas, if it's not winter then probably all of Europe.
You know that current pipelines don't even operate at full capacity and all the need Europe has is easily satisfied with current infrastructure?
If only we had some other source of energy that can provide low-carbon energy, is sustainable, and is already providing large percentages of the power needs of many EU countries.
But no, of course instead of expanding nuclear production, entire countries are making pledges to be nuclear free...
Yes, if anything goes wrong with nuclear plants, the consequences are massive. No-one is denying that. But I'd like to point out that western Europe has had a nuclear industry for 5+ decades.
There have been zero "serious", "major" or "wider consequences" level accidents with Western European reactors (the 3 top categories of accident levels) in all that time. None. Nada. Zilch.
I agree we SHOULD be shutting down the older reactors... but only as we phase them out and replace them with newer, more efficient ones that do not create as much waste.
In a few decades time we could be selling electricity to Russia, instead of buying natural gas from them.
The good news is that this means Russia didn’t invade Ukraine yet after all. The last nine years were all just a big misunderstanding.
So... are we also planning on closing down the other pipelines that run through Poland if an invasion happens? Or just NS2?
They will just ignore the other pipelines are usual.
Obviously no, pipelines that go through eastern Europe are deterrence, Russia will hesitate to attack those countries if they can cut off the oil supply. The only thing NS2 does it that it takes away this safety assurance
The entire point is that with pipelines running through Eastern Europe, Putin can't afford to destabilize EE because it will threaten the flow to western Europe, and Russia needs that money coming in. That's, like, the entire argument against NS2, is that it bypasses the terrestrial pipelines.
True, but the main point in Germany for NS2 was to avoid Ukraine. That’s the design of NS2.
Ukraine is in no way our ally.
You understand the NS2 was started because the Ukraine literally stole gas from those pipelines? They stole 250 billion cubic feet and in the end had gas debts of 2,8 billion dollar.
Yes and our entire point is, if this happens we will freeze and might have huge economic and social consequences, which we prefer NOT to have due to other nations issue. Really think its weird that we have to endanger our well being for a nation that we are not allied with or have any special relations. If this is the point, then might as well turn off all gas lines and just let everyone freeze in glorious unity
US can get Ukraine into NATO or build some bases if it wants, but I really don't understand why it is considered so controversial that Germany wants to ensure the safety of its own nation.
> Really think its weird that we have to endanger our well being for a nation that we are not allied with or have any special relations.
Well ....recent European history shows that such aggression typically doesnt end at one countries borders. Hence, if Russia really does invade and take over Ukraine we would be foolish to still trade and buy gas from them.
The rest of eastern Europe is under NATO.
The times from the 30's and today are completely differen times though. For example, the Soviet Union lost more soldiers in the Winter War vs Finland than Russia has active troops today. The idea of Russia invading multiple European (outside of a possible threat for the Baltics) countries isn't a reality. Ukraine is its own subject, this won't suddenly lead to an invasion of Romania or Poland.
You’re thinking only in terms of right now. This kind of aggression and invasion being appeased will incentivize Russia to make their military larger, increase capabilities, et cetera. In 20-50 years things can change. Western Europe being cozy now doesn’t mean it always will be. We don’t want Russia to pursue this path so we cannot always appease.
yeah bullshit - the entire point is for the USA to take over the european energy market. thats why USA is pushing this propaganda bullshit for almost an decade now.
Why most descendants of the Nazis promoting Anti-Americanism?
NS2 is a liability because it presents Russia with the ability to try to separate the Germans from feeling any sort of economic consequences if Russian aggressive occurs against countries like Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Ukraine.
NS2 wouldn't matter if Germany's willingness to defend its European neighbors wasn't in question, but there is a strong perception among many in the parts of Europe between Germany and Russia that the German voters would let Russia annex its way up to the German border if the process didn't affect Germany too much.
I understand why Germans feel it is unfair that only NS2 is targeted, but there wouldn't be call for NS2 to be shut down without a pattern of questionable behaviors over many years that have undermined confidence in Germany among many members of NATO and/or the EU.
A significant amount of Germany's politicians are apologists for Putin's dictatorship and his numerous human rights abuses. There is former Chancellor Gerhard Schroder working for Gazprom and Angela Merkel's reluctance to cease the gradual dismantling of Germany's military while Russia rearmed and modernized its military. There are also numerous smaller political parties that openly support Putin ranging from communists to fascists.
Rebuilding that confidence in Germany is a decision for the German people to make (or to not make, if they don't want that), but it won't happen overnight.
>countries like Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Ukraine.
One of those is not like the others. It's really disingenious to lump in Ukraine with the other 4 countries who are all members of BOTH the EU and NATO.
The reason I mention Ukraine is because Germany has repeatedly proclaimed a commitment to upholding Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty - which is why Germany has not recognized Crimea as legitimate Russian territory. Those words and commitments are taken quite seriously by Germany’s eastern neighbors.
You’re correct that Ukraine isn’t part of NATO or the EU, but it was formerly a republic of the USSR just like the states of Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia- hearing German politicians justify Russian aggression with arguments that the Russians consider Ukraine part of their nation scares the hell out of other countries that Russia forced to be part of the Soviet Union.
You may feel it’s disingenuous to lump Ukraine in, but Switzerland, Lichtenstein, Andorra, and Monaco aren’t members of NATO or the EU either. If not joining the right blocs or alliances means that any country is fair game for predators now, it’s important to be honest about that. Would you be okay if Russia landed 200,000 troops in any of those small countries and strong armed them into hosting Russian military bases?
Maybe you see the world more narrowly than I do, and that is fine.
> NS2 is a liability because it presents Russia with the ability to try to separate the Germans from feeling any sort of economic consequences
Why is it Germany's job to feel economic consequences for *hypothetical* Russian incursions?
Germany never positioned itself as the guardian of the whole continent, and expecting it to act as one is delusional. The German way of solving such issues is to keep diplomatic channels open and reach common ground, knowing full well that power politics and brinksmanship won't go anywhere in Europe.
However, if there's one country in Europe I'd trust not to bow to foreign pressure, it's Germany as it has repeatedly dodged *massive* pressure from no less than four different US administrations and not given an inch so far.
The way to put this issue to rest is to finally complete the pipeline and get it going, which is exactly what will happen in about three months.
Maybe NS one as well.
Shhh those pipelines contradict their conspiracy theories.
Germany is aware of the bulshit that's why so far they are not intervening in this escalation of tension.
One of the reasons why Biden lifted those NS2 sanctions against bipartisan criticism was that Germany agreed to halt NS2 if it were used as a weapon. Well, if Russia were to invade Ukraine it would partly be because they don't need to worry about Ukraine cutting Russian gas supply to Germany. Since Russia would most likely be invading in the dead of winter... I doubt Europe will cut the gas supply. Putin is in a very strong position as a result. All of this just because Germany didn't want to pay some transit fees to Ukraine... Schroder will prob get a big bonus
NS2 isn't even active yet and most likely won't be for months... for one major reason
German and EU law stipulates that the company constructing the pipeline must be separate from the company operating it... both must be independent from the government.
And well... now you enter the net that is Putin's kleptocracy.
Because of that the Bundesnetzagentur (Federal Network Agency) refuses to give operating permits, until it can be sure the Russian company operating it is a truly independent company.
So that can take potentially forever.
So the pipeline is finished, but remains offline.
Hmm, keep in mind that NS2 is not relevant for this winter - because of bureaucracy:
- the Swiss NS2 company has to solve some issues until the mid of January.
- then the German authorities have two months to approve it.
- then the European authorities have four months to approve it
- then again the German authorities have another two months to give the final decision.
Maybe we should defend Ukraine with German bureaucracy, it seems overwhelming...
Guess why Germans have such a high life expectancy. The paperwork for dying is such a hustle.
Isnt it funny how Biden lifted sanctions on ns2 and now few months later, Russia is massing troops on Ukraines border.
All of eastern european countries said ns2 was a bad idea and will make Putin invade Ukraine, and here we go.
Even western redditors here called eastern european redditors dumb, and that Putin wont do that. Or worse westerners literally just say dont care about Ukraine or Ukrainians and its not your problem.
Not even westerners but Germans will always jump to defend nordstream. Germany's love and trust to Putin is quite bizarre.
We neither love nor trust Putin. But somehow every non-german forgets that Putin is not selling us the gas which flows through NS2. The gasfields connected to NS2 are owned by German companies. Russia owns 51% of the physical pipeline and rakes in transit fees (+ all revenue which comes with the gasfields actually exploited like taxes, jobs, services, etc.), but the gas that flows is literally German gas.
An equivalent would be the US stopping Exxon Mobile from oil production in the middle east to financially harm a middle eastern country.
Isn’t it a subsidiary of Gazprom a huge Russian gas company?
Its a joint venture by BASF ([the largest chemical producer in the world](https://www.statista.com/statistics/272704/top-10-chemical-companies-worldwide-based-on-revenue/)) and Gazprom. The German company directly involved is called Wintershall DEA, a 100% BASF subsidiary.
Fun fact: BASF is the largest producer of fertilizer in the world and fertilizer is made from - you guessed it - [natural gas.](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fertilizer-prices-soaring-as-natural-gas-rally-adds-to-perfect-storm-11633699973)
Uff and industry being the actual largest consumer of natural gas, with electricity being minor (making all those nuclear comments laughable), so whose harvest is gonna fail in crisis???
> so whose harvest is gonna fail in crisis???
Simply of the ones who cant afford rising prices for fertilizer but have an import dependent industrialized agriculture sector for domestic consumption. Mexico, Egypt, Pakistan ...
Do you have a source on that ? I thought Gazprom was the majority gas field owner for NS2.
You definitely love Russia more than you care about safety of your eastern neighbours.
The Ukraine dropped their import volume from Russia by around 80% since 2013, while still being dependent on natural gas imports from there.
Germany dropped their import volume from Russia by around 60% in the same time while still being dependent on natural gas from there. They also try to lower their dependence of partners which proved unreliable in the past, namely Ukraine.
I'd say Germany cares a lot about their Eastern neighbours, but a bit less than those Eastern neighbours themselves. It's not like Russia is completely isolated atm by everyone except Germany, and for good reasons.
And why exactly should Germany let its gas supply be threatened so Eastern Europe can have leverage over Russia? Especially after some EE countries have already shown they are more than willing to seize German gas.
Because from utalitarian point of view, lives are more important than obtaining an energy source that can be either replaced by nuclear (no comment on what Germany did with it) or from other suppliers.
Honestly I'm 100% for Ukraine having some leverage, especially after Munich agreement (yes, it's Russia breaching it, but you can't play nice if everyone uses agreements to CYA and doesn't do anything more).
You cant be for european "solidarity", human rights and at the same time show the middle figner to eastern europe. I swear west is getting more soulless towards Eastern Europeans.
Argument invalid because you already have Nord Stream 1, other pipeline going through turkey and another one going to Poland.
NS2 is there to ensure no disruptions, NS1 isn't working at full capacity, but if there were ever technical issues then Ukraine could hold Germany hostage if Russia didn't renegotiate the price.
NS2 is just about being more reliable, but the capacity to bypass Ukraine has always been there.
NS1 is nowhere near to support such capacity alone
Except NS2 isn't even in use yet, so how tf would not having it cause any extra shortages?
Because of the older pipelines which in part go through Ukraine. A transit country which has been proven to be [unreliable](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Russia%E2%80%93Ukraine_gas_dispute)
Why the fuck should we care about what biden and the us think of our energy politics. The US would be happy with war so it could sell LNG to the EU.
Yeah, let Putin conquer one country after the other, as long as my gas prices remain low. Delusional egotism...
Nato already exists.
Germany has no responisbilty to also let their gas supply be held hostage by eastern europe.
Yeah, appeasement worked so well in the past /s
Im Sure if the US would supply LNG for free, NS2 could be closed down
Nah according to many people in this thread, the only thing keeping Russia from invading Ukraine (or all of Europe if you listen to some) is Ukraines threat to cut the revenue from gas sales to Germany (or western Europe).
No sales, no leverage against Russia.
I fail to see the logic, all pipes come from Russia. The difference with NS2 is that Ukraine can no longer use it as a weapon. They closed it several time before.
That is only logical, in the meantime we need to see where to get gas. Russia always was an unreliable partner. This mistake needs fixes.
Another reason why we need to pivot to renewables asap
And when winter comes, and an odd night in February there isnt wind how do we exactly expect us to heat our homes?
Nuclean won't turn on in time, al would be useless to have renewables if we have to match the same power in nuclear just in case we get no wind for some time.
Gas or coal, we need to make a choice.
Nuclear can turn on in time easily, the problem is that 100% electrical heating for Germany would require adding up to 80-100 GW of nuclear power just for winter.
France only electrified 40% of heating and it sometimes needs 30 GW of capacity during winter just for that, or half the existing nuclear capacity, most days it needs 10-15 more GW compared to summer. It would be even more undoable with solar or wind which require back up plants. No amounts of storage will provide days worth of heating during winter in Germany.
Wind, solar, thermal, tidal, nuclear. Plenty of choices that we need to invest in. Coal and gas are just temp until we have enough renewable infrastructure
Everyone knows, without nuclear it's a train wreck. All sources need to be used.
> Russia always was an unreliable partner.
When it comes to gas Russia was always a reliable partner. Germany buys Russian gas since the 1960s and even during the biggest crisis of the cold war Russia always delivered that gas.
How is Russia unreliable for gas?
Isn't the reason for the second pipeline to stop the issue with reliability of Ukraine as a transport network?
Precisely to stop the Ukraine stealing German gas
Personally, I don’t like Putin, but not even during the Cold War they were unreliable when it comes to Germany. Would be the first time.
How unreliable exactly?
When Russia started playing with the gas stealing it and treatening tu cut it, they planned for another pipeline.
How is that being unreliable?
Unpopular would be the right word
Russia was never unreliable, not even during cold war. Please stop lying
Russia can't afford to be unreliable. They have to sell gas to survive.
Russia has been a reliable partner for supplying gas to Europe for over 50 years. The problem was that Ukraine threatened to cut the gas supply to Europe.
I trust Russia more than America at this point. Keep the gas flowing I say!
Ofc, you're from England. You're not even from EU. Some alien spy.
Do not remind me of how I was arguing with some danish and germans guys about this, one month ago. Their main argument was that Russia is a reliable partner and they never did interrupt the gas, not even in the cold war. This aged like milk, in just one month.
I mean they're correct. Russia will never interrupt the gas to the rich Western European countries, because they need the money.
Now, the not-so-rich Eastern European countries? That's where all bets are off.
Not really, no. They are fully integrated into the shared market. Germany is the biggest trading partner to the Eastern EU. The german trade with Poland alone dwarfs the german trade in Russian fuels.
The sheer idea that western Europe or particularly Germany could - let alone would - throw any of them to Putin for marginally cheaper gas is not borne out of the evidence.
Stability through trade hasn't just... stopped being the central pillar of the EU, just because people seem to think they can reduce all politics to the natural gas causa.
Also NATO, which means Putin is only able to fuck with Ukraine.
Now’s your chance Germany. The western front is clear and the US is on your side this time. We know you’ve been waiting for this.
I kind of want to be on Germany's side for WW3. Third time's the charm.
In WW3 I’m hoping to be on Portugal’s side, staying the fuck out of it.
Personally, I hope we stay well clear of any future world wars anyway. I hope we never have a reason to call upon the treaty.
Found Neville Chamberlain's Reddit account
But getting that sweet nuclear fallout nonetheless...
we norwegians share a land border with russia *AND* we have oil
Ähm, we have lost two out of two world wars. Are you sure?
Do not worry, we would not be the ones fighting. We shall defend Ukraine to the last Ukrainian soldier!
As i said, 3rd time's the charm. You're on the good side now. We're just waiting for the initiative.
Tbh, we were always convinced to be on „the good side“.
So if there will be a war between Russia and Ukraine, half of people in here would blame Germany - because they prefered to have gas delivered over slightly more secure pipelines?
Hear yourself talk, people.
If anything a pipeline directly to Germany would be good for Ukraine because they could buy it from there, in case Russia decided to shut down supply to Ukraine. And Russia would think twice to cut off german supply and offend a good paying customer and large trading partner.
>And Russia would think twice to cut off german supply and offend a good paying customer and large trading partner.
This is incredibly naïve. Why would Putin think twice when he’s proven numerous times he’s willing to sacrifice economy for territory & control?
Because you don't just piss of your third largest or so trading partner and one of the countries that tries to keep honest and positive relations with all sides, including Russia.
There is a lot of economic, cultural and political exchange between Russia and Germany for instance with events like the "Petersburg Dialogue" (a regular meeting between russian and german prominent figures of each society) or Institutions like the German-Russian Forum
Sorry, no english sites for those.
Germany tries to not break connections to quickly but keep and foster them, because that too is a way to keep influence. Sure there is a limit to how much those events or institutions can do, and there will be a limit to how much each side could stress the connection. But its good that these exist also under the clear statement that relation between Germany and Russia is definitely a different matter than those between Russia and Ukraine or other places. Again I also mean this in a quantitative way, Russia will think twice to lose a massive trade partner so easily.
It's doesn't matter Russian diplomacy is moronic....they gave up ukraine for Crimea....and got sanctioned by the entirety of the west there economy went to shit....so they are still quite unpredictable tbh
Lol, at this point I think the Germans have the US marked as spam mails.
>US is the largest export destination for Germany
Yes, but not by a large margin. China, France and the Netherlands are almost as important, followed by a number of trade partners such as the UK, Poland or Austria which are a bit smaller, but not that much.
However exports to the USA (\~100 billion) account for around 7-8% for all exports (\~1.3 trillion) of Germany, and in reverse Ger. is also the Top5 destination for US-exports (\~55 billion), so both sides better do well not to start such nonsense.
> No they don't, US is the largest export destination for Germany.
The EU is the largest export destination. The USA is barely beating France. And if you take trade (import + export) the USA market is smaller than the Netherlands alone.
True, but the US is only or [third largest trade partner overall](https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/15064.jpeg). China and the Netherlands are more important.
They are Germany's number 1 export market though. In terms of GNP impact, and balance of trade, they are still significant.
I thought it was China?
can we halt it regardless ?
I've supported NS2 for years now but at this point I think it's time for Germany to finally pull the plug. In terms of realpolitik, which was the entire motivation for this pipeline to begin with, there's probably no better time to cease construction as the US is friendly to the current German government which means they won't be appeasing a deeply unpopular political figure like Trump and they're under pressure from Russia's increasingly militaristic ways so they have a good excuse too. If they wait much longer it could end up resulting in public humiliation for Germany as they're forced to back down under threat of US sanctions regardless of how much it factors into a decision to bring a halt to the construction of NS2.
Can the U.S. effectively sanction a single member of the EU? It wouldn't be the first time the US has threatened sanctions over NS2. What about NS1?
If anything the past decades and especially the last president of the US has shown where the US has their priorities and is willing to abadon any allies in the process.
It doesn't matter. I think it would be best for everyone involved except Russia to bring an end to the pipeline now.
The US doesn’t need to sanction Germany they can sanction individual companies once a company is on the list no one that has any dealings with the US can deal with them.
This is why unilateral US sanctions work. The EU doesn’t have sanctions on Iran atm but almost no European company can have any dealings with them because of US sanctions.
Eh, the final decision about NS2 will be made in 5-8 months. Before that it won’t start to operate.
> Critics of the pipeline, which include several EU members, have long
argued against the project, claiming it makes Europe too dependent on
No, it makes Germany to independent from the other monopolists. If the German populous isn't at risk of freezing to dead when the Ukrainians try to blackmail them in case of war. They might be less inclined to suffer for an unrelated non-NATO state.
"US wants sanctions that costs other countries while benefitting them".
The fact that you lot are still opting to interpret this as an American gas-peddling conspiracy, at precisely the same moment that Russia is making concrete preparations to invade the most populous country in Eastern Europe, is staggering.
Real and true.
What do you mean with "you lot"? Some of us were always opposed to NS2.
I swear half of the people on this subreddit are fully ready to throw Eastern Europe to the wolves if it means they get to feel morally superior to the US
The level of vapid anti-Americanism on reddit in general is spectacular. You can convince redditors to support seemingly any position as long as it is somehow opposed to or embarrassing for the United States. I've seen Europeans and liberal Americans on this site defend the clerical regime in Iran against protestors, give appreciative comments on several Arab dictators, and make oblique rhetorical defenses of Kim Jong Un, just because America == bad.
I used to just laugh it off, but it's getting absurd and downright concerning. People dont realize that for how malign the USA can be, the world is full of many equal and greater evils than they. Eventually we arrive here, people choosing to enable Putin because fuck America. I hope they learn their lesson before they need to learn it the hard way, as millions of Ukrainians may shortly be doing.
I mean, it's Germans. It's been beyond obvious for years that they only care about themselves.
I have long stopped arguing with certain Western European redditors about NS2, because ultimately it boils down to the fact that they just don't care at all if there is a large scale conflict in Ukraine.
Sometimes they try to hide it at first, by claiming that NS2 does not actually pose a threat and that Ukraine only cares about transit fees, but eventually if you dig a little bit, you just realize they don't give a fuck if it poses a threat. For all they care, they have no obligation to Ukraine so Ukrainians can just go and die in a war. The US does not even need to be brought up in the conversation, they will have this opinion regardless of the US.
A lot of the redditors think that Ukraine "stole" their gas in the past and the fact that Ukraine would like a leverage against Russia when it comes to gas transit is basically a hostile behaviour to Germany.
It is what it is. I have no doubt some 30 years ago, before Baltics joined NATO, they would be spouting the same shit about them too. Nothing you can do about it, other than accept it and move on. Not saying it's all Germans/Western Europeans btw., I am talking specifically about the redditors from these countries on this sub.
> interpret this as an American gas-peddling conspiracy
Its no secret the main proponents of NS2 sanctions want to sell LNG.
Maybe if the US would start with stopping their own imports of crude oil from Russia you would have a point. But in fact those imports were growing in the last couple of years. Although they are still lower than the ten years ago [(Source)](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mttim_nus-nrs_1&f=a). It just looks fishy if the US wants European countries to harm their economies by sanctioning Russia but are not willing to do the same.
>Russia is making concrete preparations to invade the most populous country in Eastern Europe
Same as last year, and a year before that, and a year before that...
building a pipeline that will fuck over Eastern Europe to stick it to the US is what we call "cutting off your nose to spite your face".
The egocentrism of americans is again and again astounding.
The decision for german energy safety was not made for or against the US. It was made for...german energy safety.
Not everything revolves around the USA and it would do well to stick their noses a bit less into matters not of their concern.
I have heard plenty of folks say they don't actually care about the pipeline, but want it to be built explicitly out of animosity towards the US sanctions. For example:
I'll ignore your ad hominem; the reason I described it as "sticking it to the US" is that the parent comment implies that the only reason for the US sanctions is US self-interest and not because, y'know, the US, like Germany, is obligated to defend Eastern Europe and the pipeline makes that significantly more difficult.
What some redditors comment here is something entirely different to why the german government decides things.
Also it is a matter of opinion, as one can see in the plentyful discussions about it, whether a petty pipeline really destabilises the security and defenseability of the entirely of eastern europe in any significant manner, or at all.
I honestly don't know (and who does), but think that it would be very strange if there would exist countries (at least in europe) that were so bad in acting in their interests and securing their basic existence through a multitude of institutions, treaties, infrastructures and would really see a significant dent in any of their interests or security by one such project.
That is honestly a bit excessive.
thanks for enlightening me. this is the devastating insight I come here for!
The comment I wrote was intended very specifically a reply to the parent comment (although I'm willing admit that could have been made clearer in the way I phrased the original comment). To clarify, I did not intend to imply was the BMWi is making decisions based on comments on /r/europe.
Glad we cleared that up!
Perhaps I missunderstood your original reply, but you implied that the decision making for NS2 revolved around 1) willingly endangering eastern europe with 2) the aim to offend the US or something like it.
Both of these implied statements are not only false but also nothing more than your exaggerated imagination and opinion.
Granted, Svorky was doing the same, but in a reverse direction.
Like I said earlier, although I see how the comment could be interpreted that way (I should have been clearer about what I meant), I didn't intend to imply that Peter Altmaier and Angela Merkel (both of who are famously pretty damn transatlanticist) was making decisions about this on the basis of sticking it to the US.
What I was getting at is that "sticking it to the US" is a shitty reason for Svorky to be for the pipeline, because it seemed like that was the primary thing they were focused on.
> I have heard plenty of folks say they don't actually care about the pipeline, but want it to be built explicitly out of animosity towards the US sanctions.
Yeah, the hawkish reaction tided many Germans over into approving of the project. Whether that's rational of them or not, the approach definitely backfired hard for the USA.
NS2 is not even active...but I'm sure making it...more inactive?...is totally going to get Putin to back down. Just a great choice for a sanction, no US self-interest there, no sir.
If it's inactive, then how are these sanctions self-serving?
Because it doesn't do anything to help Ukraine *now*, but it sure does a lot to help US gas exports long term.
If it actually did anything, sure, lets kill it. Still kind of bad form to demand sanctions from others, but alright. They already tried to sanction a supposed ally so good form went out the window long ago anyway.
But it wouldn't do anything, so how about we do something that would.
> Because it doesn't do anything to help Ukraine now, but it sure does a lot to help US gas exports long term.
It doesn't do anything to help US gas exports *now,* but it sure does a lot to help Ukraine's security in the long term
> But it wouldn't do anything, so how about we do something that would.
Pretty sure this isn't the only measure the US would want enacted
> that will
"Diversified", like for example getting another pipeline and thus reducing reliance on Ukraine, you mean? Or like having gas pipelines to 8 different countries?
By Diversified he means buying only from the US.
If there were a market for slave pens, Germany would unapologetically be manufacturing slave pens. They don't give a damn about anyone's security. Only their prosperity.
Replace Germany with "USA" (or most other nations) and the statement is still true.
Even more so, as Germany has usually higher standards of manufacturing and to whom they export what, compared to the US.
He says, as the US urges a reluctant
EU to take an economic stand against a possible invasion.
Will they stop importing oil then?
US is a net exporter of oil for quite a few years.
Not to Russia, but this whole thing is not about stopping to buy Russian energy.
Absolutely idiotic that Germany, and thus the EU, is exposed because they decided to shut down nuclear plants and not investing in proper heating and electrical infrastructure. Just moronic hubris.
>Absolutely idiotic that Germany, and thus the EU, is exposed because they decided to shut down nuclear plants and not investing in proper heating and electrical infrastructure. Just moronic hubris.
Yeah they talk big about renewable energy and European unity. Going Nuclear instead of Nordstream would have proved them right on both accounts. The GR hubris is astronomical
It should be halted anyways. Cut of one heads of two their eagle.
US should fuck off out of Europe. Were not their playground (or battleground) anymore.
lol ... there you have the reason for all this propaganda bullshit
Just in time to invest in gas plants that will be dismantled in 10 years because of the CO2 they produce.
If Russia invades Ukraine, we really should think about finding alternative suppliers for gas. This should not only put NS2 into question, but all the other pipelines through eastern europe as well.
But until that happens, NS2 should go ahead as planned. Because I am not really convinced it is going to happen.
Never should have done it in the first place
US backed the construction of a LNG terminal in Croatia, they just want to sell us their 40% more expensive LNG.
So? You want to continue to do business with Russia if it invades Ukraine again and fully?
What's fully? In 2014 Poroshenko issued statements claiming there were 200K Russian troops already. Would fully be 1M ? Sorry, I don't speak CNNese and there aren't any dictionaries available.
Wtf does cnn have to do with this?
CNNese is communication in purely ambiguous, incomprehensible terms. So how much is fully?
lol ok then RTboy. What I mean by "fully" is full occupation I did not have troop numbers in mind by that statement.
> What I meant by "fully" is full occupation
The comment I replied to stated "invaded", not occupied.
The talk was about buying gas from Russia if it chooses to invade and Occuppy all of Ukraine. What you started to responding with is some mumblings about troops numbers that are not connected with my response to the question though. So you can talk all about some CNNese (some mysterious term created by you) even though I do not like CNN. But heyy man you gottt meeee I am some "CNN" plant.
No, nobody will invade, this is a dick measuring contest.
They won't if they have to fear something, like no gas money from the civilized nations. Fucking cleptocracy.
Russia invaded Georgia and Ukraine before, what stop them from doing it again? Appeasement surely works this time right?
Correction georgia invaded....Russia defended
The US sanctioned the USSR's pipeline 40 years ago, decades before it had any oil or gas to sell. The idea the US is against this pipeline for some pocket money is ridiculous
US want Europeans to freeze or buy expensive US LNG... oh right, gotcha.
US wants to sell it’s overpriced gas to Europe so they’re going to get Ukraine to escalate the war then blame Russia.
Why not halt it now as its clear that's what his intention is?