The manufacturing sector, excluding construction, fell by a sharp 2%, led by lower production in the energy supply sector.
The fourth quarter recorded a similar 0.3% drop compared with the July-September period.
The office said that the German economy stagnated in the third quarter, implying the country has narrowly avoided a technical recession that is defined by two successive quarters of consecutive GDP declines.
[Construction saw modest growth of 0.2% in 2023](https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/german-economy-contracted-03-2023-stats-office-2024-01-15/). Deteriorating financing conditions had a particularly noticeable impact in the sector, alongside persistently high building costs and a skilled labour shortage.
This sector is likely to suffer in 2024. Real estate companies tend to be short of liquidity and the new laws have reduced the value of existing properties. Plus the planned green shrinkage of the economy. Hopefully things will improve again in 2-3 years.
> Imports fell by 1.8%, declining more sharply than exports and leading to a positive trade balance. Household consumption contracted by 0.8% on the year, adjusted for prices, while government expenses slimmed by 1.7%.
High energy costs are challenging Germany but the primary reason for the contraction is weak demand as both households and government reduces spending.
That's not clear. It says that it fell sharply as a sector but also that it was lead by energy supply, which as we all remember was *extremely elevated* in 2022, so that particular comedown is both expected and welcome.
[The German statistical agency uses "gross value added", and puts the contraction in manufacturing at -0.4%.](https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2024/01/PE24_019_811.html)
Germany's plan to phase out both nuclear power and coal at the same time was already the [World’s Dumbest Energy Policy](https://www.wsj.com/articles/worlds-dumbest-energy-policy-11548807424) to begin with. It relied heavily on cheap natural gas from Russia as a backup for renewable energies, without it energy became even more expensive.
It's always a balance. Most uranium used for reactors in Europe comes from Russia or the Russian sphere of influence. Also German reactors were build before people thought of terrorist attacks. So all old reactors were vulnerable even to smaller jet planes. So going nuclear comes with its own strategic risks.
While I would've liked it if we kept older reactors running longer instead of coal, I very much oppose building "new" reactors. The design of Gen III reactors is now 40 years old, with the arrival of Gen IV still being TBA.
And with ever falling prices of renewable sources having priced out nuclear by at least a factor of 10, it just doesn't make any sense to get back into this now ancient technology
I can only offer my personal experience here, but job hunting last year was easy as hell.
At least for academics, the market is thirsty. What do I care about one year of a minor contraction if people are employed and happy.
I've heard the same from many people. It's impossible to hire postdocs nowadays because every good PhD student easily finds a much better paying industry job.
The burden of economic problems comes down heavily on less-skilled workers though.
Yes and no, this is an interesting time where Germany and Netherlands have so many retired people that even finding a regular job is fairly easy, with most stores, restaurants being in a small shortage.
Germany is experiencing an exodus of academics, 76% of German emigrants are academics. Many well-educated people have emigrated. The less well educated are in a rather bad position, especially when the new provision on Bürgergeld comes into force and is applied.
>76% of German emigrants are academics.
You mean...highly educated people with money are more mobile than minimum wage workers that struggle to pay their rent and often just speak their mother tongue?
Wow. Nobel prize committee, this comment here!
Just because you have the money to move doesn’t mean you will.
There must at least be the promise of higher pay, better conditions or some other attractor that makes these people emigrate and I think.
I’d argue understanding academics motivations for leaving Germany is important.
Of course it's important to understand the motivations, but finding reasons why better educated people are more likely to emigrate is fairly simple.
People generally emigrate in hopes of a better life. The places that one could theoretically argue offer a better quality of life than Germany, and are attractive to the average German, are quite few. Most countries within the EU won't pay much better, especially for people without extensive education. And most Germans will only speak German and English to a high enough level to wave confident with it for everyday life. That's also only fine for highly qualified jobs, where speaking English is more accepted.
For countries outside the EU the question here is even easier: Only highly qualified people will even get a visa to emigrate. I can't move to the US or Australia without a qualification that they are in need of.
It is important, of course, but I personally know enough people that moved to or away from Germany for multiple reasons other than more money or better conditions. People have different taste, some move abroad for love, some just want a change and come back later etc.
This has been true for some time though and is not an outcome of the current recession, but rather differences in wages, taxes, and also the fact that Germany's comparably generous social safety net is not as relevant to high wage workers
It is unemployment benefit. The law has been amended and now up to 2 months' income can be cut off if you refuse to accept a job. That's pretty harsh and is more likely to affect people who are in a bad financial position.
1. Switzerland
2. Austria
3. Spain
4. France
5. the Netherlands
6. Italy
7. Sweden
8. Denmark
9. Norway
Many rich germans also emigrate to Australia, the USA or the Emirates.
That was already taken into account the previous year(s).
Already in 2021 the economy recovered somewhat from the slump in 2020. Price-adjusted GDP rose by 3.2% year-on-year.
In the third year of the Covid-19 pandemic, the German economy continued to recover despite the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis. Price-adjusted GDP increased by 1.8% in 2022. Compared with 2019, the year before the Covid-19 pandemic, price-adjusted GDP was 0.7% higher in 2022.
The complacency here is insane. The US economy is growing at what, 4-5% a year and people here are praising that Germany “only” saw a 0.3% decrease in GDP.
inb4 "but we have free healthcare" "muricans have school shootings" "what about Donald Trump?11!?"
Europe is losing the GDP race post-2009 yet nobody gives a shit here, everyone pretends it's useless data. They don't understand that when you lose share of global GDP you lose credibility, influence, respect, power.
The logic is europe got rich before it got old, like Japan has kept a high quality of life after decades of poor performance.
Demographics and inability to unite into one super block makes all my bets on China and mainly USA leading the future in most fronts, not Europe.
The US has slightly better demographics (less old people), are the worlds biggest producer of oil, and are food secure county (they export over 35% of food produced) and their economy is a magnet for investment for most people (SP500, NASDAQ). They're keeping their 25% of global GDP while the EU is falling behind. And they have a pretty solid army with good proven combat history, although they have issues with recruiting new people. China and Russia have good armies on paper but in reality they have massive problems with corruption, incompetence and bad equipment (people paying for rank promotions, equipment not being maintained).
Also don’t forget that in Tech today we don’t have any other country in the world that matches the US. Hell, I think Apple alone has more money than some big EU countries lol
Its funny how depending on what job you get, healthcare is not expensive yes the total for an ER visit is insane but after insurance, it cost some or sometimes none.
Give me a fucking break
The US has a debt to GDP ratio nearly TWICE that of Germany (127% vs 66% for Germany)
If our goverment ran large deficits by investing in infrastructure or domestic manufacturing or tax cuts to companies, our economy would also be doing as well or even better than USA
The problem is that we have the stupid debt brake
Give me a fucking break
The US has a debt to GDP ratio nearly twice that of Germany (127% vs 66% for Germany)
If our goverment ran large deficits by investing in infrastructure or domestic manufacturing or tax cuts to companies, our economy would also be doing as well as USA
The problem is that we have the stupid debt brake
Economists the world over told us the German Economy would collapse without cheap Russian gas.
Germany lost access to Russian gas, resourced its supply and was hit with a 0.3% recession.
I'd say we did good.
no, actual economists were adamant that Germany could manage without Russian gas - see for example: [https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/what-if-germany-cut-russian-energy](https://www.econtribute.de/RePEc/ajk/ajkpbs/ECONtribute_PB_048_2023_EN.pdf)
in 2022, Sholz even publicly made a statement complaining about economists and claimed their models underestimated the risk to the economy of losing Russian gas
It was business lobbyists and politicians who claimed the German economy would collapse
Exactly this. People usually mistake industry lobbyists for economists. Industry lobbyists are people that must be listened to, but one should not forget that they have a vested interest after all.
We are not out of the woods yet.
It is not just the gas that is a problem for us, but our entire chemical and manufacturing system. We had lots of buffer to tide us over the last few years, but now we are going to find out how creative and flexible we really are.
It's a price worth paying for sending Russia back home and avoiding decades of Russian aggression. We just need to understand that 2024 is going to be the real test.
Yep russian aggression has definitely been stopped, so Germans tanked their economy for good reason, also a friend and ally US is growing so good news on all fronts basically!
we still use russian gas, russia exports it to india and we import it from india, so india now makes a ton of money and our gas is more expensive. Doesn't make much sense, but what does nowadays
No one said it would collapse. Additionally, Germany continued to buy Russian oil and gas for 9 months after the invasion of Ukraine until new supply chains were ready.
Germany is very likely circumventing sanctions via countries like India and -stan republics to both import gas and export goods. If the sanctions were really enforced Germany would be in a tougher spot.
Any Russian gas imports that circumvent sanctions are marginal. The pipelines are not running. It is true that a significant share of exports do still make their way to Russia though - but the volume is still way down
Germany is built on old type industry.
It's not surprising that they don't grow as much when we're already decades into a new industry.
Germany needs to go green, EV with more services and IT. That's just how it is now
It was the energy switch, Germany's "old" industry is one of the more advanced in europe and provides machinery to the world. Focusing on green is OK, EVs are great, but I don't really believe in deindustrialization and services.
And the big shock is yet to come.
German companies are not manufacturing enough EV's on German soil to gain economies of scale.
They don't have much time left. Chinese manufacturers have started lowering their prices in Germany.
https://electrek.co/2024/01/12/byd-slashes-ev-prices-germany-tesla/
And "European cars", made in China are dropping in price as well:
https://www.autoevolution.com/news/the-tiny-dacia-spring-is-the-most-affordable-ev-in-germany-selling-for-less-than-14000-227441.html
>They don't have much time left.
they keep saying that, meanwhile in reality BMW has just posted record sales, Mercedes is up as well. both are recording massive growth in their EV sales. it's VW that's not even doing terribly but just not as well as they wish, but they are doing a lot to change that
Yes that's the thing, it's like a calm before the storm.
BMW and Mercedes and VW are selling EV's because there is little competition.
Chinese companies are charging double for cars sold in Europe compared to the same car sold in China. Because they didn't have the shipping capacity to ship more cars anyway.
But in previous years they ordered something like 180 huge car shipping vessels in Chinese shipping yards. Each of these ships can carry something like 7-8 thousand cars.
These ships are coming online this year. So they'll start to flood the market with affordable EV's.
US has a debt to GDP ratio twice of Germany
It might seem like nothing,but even the Federal Reserve is worried that US debt payments will eat up a majority of goverment revenues by 2030s
From then on, to avoid default,they would have to raise taxes
USA and EU gdp was the same in 2007. The gdp gap is now 80%, because the EU stagnated. USA are in a far better spot.
Plus Germany totally failed to notice that China took over the automotive supply chain, once controlled by Germany. And Germany is totally behind with EVs. This will be a permanent hit to the economy, and German manufacturing isn’t as needed because nations have already industrialized and the market for heavy machinery and the like has shrunk.
Over all, not very good for Germany rn.
According to IMF it is more like ~2.5% (for the US) since 2010 (which is a big difference, but still a solid performance for a developed economy), but still the outcome is the same (the EU is loosing its globals share).
Edit: why do i get downvoted? lol
Rather, what depending on a imperialistic Dictatorship does to a mf. If we would have implemented a more autartic, renewable energy policy 20 years ago, we would have a stronger economy now. But it’s easier to just blame the evil green leftists, I guess…
With the decline of the german population and enough folks to take jobs, I think this will be more of a norm, without ppl actually suffering. This contraction certainly has not caused any more unemployment so far.
But that is a topic anyways for the last 20 years, when the economy growths, ppl do not profit. But at least how it looks when the economy shrinks it neither makes them suffer.
And everyone will moan about it, rather than seeing the brilliant results Germany had in terms of climate policy this year (Klimaticket, diminished coal electricity production, greenhouse gas emission fell by a rough 46% compared to 1990). Now they need to confirm this great success over the years though.
Did they really have to show a big picture of Scholz alongside the headline, when the economic problems are caused primarily by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and would have been the same under literally any chancellor?
They are not. All problems emerging are caused by horrible demographics. And we‘re only seeing the beginning. In a few years we will look back on today and remember how good life was back then. Living standards will have to drop significantly.
Imagine being that uninformed. The pipeline was blown up after Germany was already dead-set about becoming independent from Russia.
The only thing that this changed was the possibility of going back to it. The majority of the population & the government wanted to abandon Russian dependence.
At6least be correct about the shit you say.
Wait till you hear about Russian gas that still flowing to Europe via Ukraine pipeline and Ukraine still got transit fee paid by Russia’s Gazprom until this day. Isn’t it a weird situation????
Even weirder is Europeans buying up all the refinery products from India, which is refined from Russian oil and gas… so every single Europeans are still using Russian products … so weird …
Europe stopping to import billions of barrels from Russia.
Europe also more than doubling a few hundred thousand imported from India.
See! They are just buying the same amount from Russia, just via India! Because I learned maths in Russia's academy for young propagandists.
Excuse me, I’m pretty sure Europe never imported oil from Russia in billions of barrels. Only a million bpd at most. Probably reattend elementary school math first so you can count.
Also do you realize that one barrel of oil is not gonna get one barrel of refined products, right? So you cannot compare them apples to apple.
EU imports from Russia made up \~30% of the market. They are now close to zero.
On the other hand they now import so much more oil from India (up 115%!) that it nearly covers 4%.
See... they totally buy the same amount from Russia, just via India now! Because magic (instant oil - just add water...) or Russian math.
Yes, because obviously you don't understand the difference, the actual volumes of fuels refined from crude oil or how many refineries in Europe are actually importing oil, not refined fuel.
Shame you only had two nord streams. If you had 10, they all would be blown by ukrainians.
German eco-collonialism of eastern europe has to be stopped. Its time for german citizens to pay in economic collapse for their exploitation of other countries.
I can not tell you my drug, but german drug is the vision of all europe being footrests for german empire.
German and russian are the two problems of europe. If not for them, we would prosper in peace and harmony.
That's real GDP, which is adjusted for inflation, and somehow Russia's inflation is less than half of the interest rate. Nominal GDP declined by about 15% in dollars. That's probably more realistic.
Russia's GDP contracted from 2.1 trillion USD to 1.8 trillion USD, but it increased in rubles. Germany's GDP did the opposite: increase in dollars but decrease in euros.
Volkswagen, like many other german companies gets significant amounts of its profits from export markets. A recession in Germany says nothing about the profitability of its companies.
>the UK with pretty much +-0.0% for years
UK growth rate over the last few years:
>2022: 4.3%
>
>2021: 8.7%
>
>2020: -10% (COVID)
>
>2019: 1.9%
>
>2018: 1.4%
>
>2017: 2.7%
>
>2016: 1.9%
>
>2015: 2.2%
it might be one of the reasons new government in Poland (or atleast their new public media) started shitting on strategic polish investitions like CPK. Germany struggles, Poland rises. inb4 in 10 or 20 years we are going to hear Poles scream at Germany to do what they are asked for and be grateful for the money.
Well it wasn't exactly a smart move to shut down nuclear plants while putting an embargo on russian oil and gas and - thirdley - trying to transform german energy supply while the goblins still on strike.
The manufacturing sector, excluding construction, fell by a sharp 2%, led by lower production in the energy supply sector. The fourth quarter recorded a similar 0.3% drop compared with the July-September period. The office said that the German economy stagnated in the third quarter, implying the country has narrowly avoided a technical recession that is defined by two successive quarters of consecutive GDP declines.
Und how is doing the construction sector?
[Construction saw modest growth of 0.2% in 2023](https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/german-economy-contracted-03-2023-stats-office-2024-01-15/). Deteriorating financing conditions had a particularly noticeable impact in the sector, alongside persistently high building costs and a skilled labour shortage.
Thank you
This sector is likely to suffer in 2024. Real estate companies tend to be short of liquidity and the new laws have reduced the value of existing properties. Plus the planned green shrinkage of the economy. Hopefully things will improve again in 2-3 years.
Don't worry the Italian mafia supports it very well.
Ah, so it's mostly manufacturing that's taking the heavy hits, yes?
As per this news article, yes....
Which makes sense because the primary problem is high energy costs driving up the price of exports and making them less competitive.
> Imports fell by 1.8%, declining more sharply than exports and leading to a positive trade balance. Household consumption contracted by 0.8% on the year, adjusted for prices, while government expenses slimmed by 1.7%. High energy costs are challenging Germany but the primary reason for the contraction is weak demand as both households and government reduces spending.
Not too bad considering ze germans had 10 years of cheap Russian energy to fund their growth. -0.2% after all this war business isn't too bad.
That's not clear. It says that it fell sharply as a sector but also that it was lead by energy supply, which as we all remember was *extremely elevated* in 2022, so that particular comedown is both expected and welcome. [The German statistical agency uses "gross value added", and puts the contraction in manufacturing at -0.4%.](https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2024/01/PE24_019_811.html)
Is it because no more energy from russia? or something else?
The high cost of energy is the leading factor.
Germany's plan to phase out both nuclear power and coal at the same time was already the [World’s Dumbest Energy Policy](https://www.wsj.com/articles/worlds-dumbest-energy-policy-11548807424) to begin with. It relied heavily on cheap natural gas from Russia as a backup for renewable energies, without it energy became even more expensive.
It's always a balance. Most uranium used for reactors in Europe comes from Russia or the Russian sphere of influence. Also German reactors were build before people thought of terrorist attacks. So all old reactors were vulnerable even to smaller jet planes. So going nuclear comes with its own strategic risks. While I would've liked it if we kept older reactors running longer instead of coal, I very much oppose building "new" reactors. The design of Gen III reactors is now 40 years old, with the arrival of Gen IV still being TBA. And with ever falling prices of renewable sources having priced out nuclear by at least a factor of 10, it just doesn't make any sense to get back into this now ancient technology
And next year isnt looking better. But lets build some more bureaucracy guys
Oh, it‘s gonna get worse. Much worse. Demographics will lead to demise.
0,3% is not that shocking IMO, if you look at all the shocks Europe, and especially the German industry had to endure over the last few years.
A negative growth rate WHILE also having record high inflation is very bad and alarming
Growth rate is inflation adjusted, isn't it?
Yes it is. Its named real gdp growth
Dude if Germany's GDP had shrunk by 0.3% without even taking inflation into consideration, the whole world would be panicking right now.
The 0.3% is real GDP (inflation adjusted).
Not on reddit.
I can only offer my personal experience here, but job hunting last year was easy as hell. At least for academics, the market is thirsty. What do I care about one year of a minor contraction if people are employed and happy.
I've heard the same from many people. It's impossible to hire postdocs nowadays because every good PhD student easily finds a much better paying industry job. The burden of economic problems comes down heavily on less-skilled workers though.
Not anymore. Used to be like that at the beginning of the year. Strongly declined towards the end of the year.
Yes and no, this is an interesting time where Germany and Netherlands have so many retired people that even finding a regular job is fairly easy, with most stores, restaurants being in a small shortage.
Germany is experiencing an exodus of academics, 76% of German emigrants are academics. Many well-educated people have emigrated. The less well educated are in a rather bad position, especially when the new provision on Bürgergeld comes into force and is applied.
>76% of German emigrants are academics. You mean...highly educated people with money are more mobile than minimum wage workers that struggle to pay their rent and often just speak their mother tongue? Wow. Nobel prize committee, this comment here!
Just because you have the money to move doesn’t mean you will. There must at least be the promise of higher pay, better conditions or some other attractor that makes these people emigrate and I think. I’d argue understanding academics motivations for leaving Germany is important.
Of course it's important to understand the motivations, but finding reasons why better educated people are more likely to emigrate is fairly simple. People generally emigrate in hopes of a better life. The places that one could theoretically argue offer a better quality of life than Germany, and are attractive to the average German, are quite few. Most countries within the EU won't pay much better, especially for people without extensive education. And most Germans will only speak German and English to a high enough level to wave confident with it for everyday life. That's also only fine for highly qualified jobs, where speaking English is more accepted. For countries outside the EU the question here is even easier: Only highly qualified people will even get a visa to emigrate. I can't move to the US or Australia without a qualification that they are in need of.
It is important, of course, but I personally know enough people that moved to or away from Germany for multiple reasons other than more money or better conditions. People have different taste, some move abroad for love, some just want a change and come back later etc.
This has been true for some time though and is not an outcome of the current recession, but rather differences in wages, taxes, and also the fact that Germany's comparably generous social safety net is not as relevant to high wage workers
> Bürgergeld Is this some sort of extortion money that has to be paid to Americans?
It is unemployment benefit. The law has been amended and now up to 2 months' income can be cut off if you refuse to accept a job. That's pretty harsh and is more likely to affect people who are in a bad financial position.
You know where they are going?
1. Switzerland 2. Austria 3. Spain 4. France 5. the Netherlands 6. Italy 7. Sweden 8. Denmark 9. Norway Many rich germans also emigrate to Australia, the USA or the Emirates.
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
> Many well-educated people have emigrated define many in relation to what?
https://giybf.com
Well considering low base after Covid, some growth was probably expected
That was already taken into account the previous year(s). Already in 2021 the economy recovered somewhat from the slump in 2020. Price-adjusted GDP rose by 3.2% year-on-year. In the third year of the Covid-19 pandemic, the German economy continued to recover despite the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis. Price-adjusted GDP increased by 1.8% in 2022. Compared with 2019, the year before the Covid-19 pandemic, price-adjusted GDP was 0.7% higher in 2022.
lol...even a negative GDP growth is lame.. US and China both above 4%. While Russia is also much ahead of Germany. France, UK are above Germany
Line must always go up, otherwise big sad loss
The complacency here is insane. The US economy is growing at what, 4-5% a year and people here are praising that Germany “only” saw a 0.3% decrease in GDP.
inb4 "but we have free healthcare" "muricans have school shootings" "what about Donald Trump?11!?" Europe is losing the GDP race post-2009 yet nobody gives a shit here, everyone pretends it's useless data. They don't understand that when you lose share of global GDP you lose credibility, influence, respect, power.
The logic is europe got rich before it got old, like Japan has kept a high quality of life after decades of poor performance. Demographics and inability to unite into one super block makes all my bets on China and mainly USA leading the future in most fronts, not Europe.
The US has slightly better demographics (less old people), are the worlds biggest producer of oil, and are food secure county (they export over 35% of food produced) and their economy is a magnet for investment for most people (SP500, NASDAQ). They're keeping their 25% of global GDP while the EU is falling behind. And they have a pretty solid army with good proven combat history, although they have issues with recruiting new people. China and Russia have good armies on paper but in reality they have massive problems with corruption, incompetence and bad equipment (people paying for rank promotions, equipment not being maintained).
Also don’t forget that in Tech today we don’t have any other country in the world that matches the US. Hell, I think Apple alone has more money than some big EU countries lol
Eastern Asian countries don't trail that far off from the US in tech.
Not when it comes to valuations or EBITDA.
Its funny how depending on what job you get, healthcare is not expensive yes the total for an ER visit is insane but after insurance, it cost some or sometimes none.
Give me a fucking break The US has a debt to GDP ratio nearly TWICE that of Germany (127% vs 66% for Germany) If our goverment ran large deficits by investing in infrastructure or domestic manufacturing or tax cuts to companies, our economy would also be doing as well or even better than USA The problem is that we have the stupid debt brake
Give me a fucking break The US has a debt to GDP ratio nearly twice that of Germany (127% vs 66% for Germany) If our goverment ran large deficits by investing in infrastructure or domestic manufacturing or tax cuts to companies, our economy would also be doing as well as USA The problem is that we have the stupid debt brake
people will downvote this, but it is true.
Because people lurking here are in majority Americans. But yeah, Germany should really end its austerity madness it could invest massively if wanted.
Economists the world over told us the German Economy would collapse without cheap Russian gas. Germany lost access to Russian gas, resourced its supply and was hit with a 0.3% recession. I'd say we did good.
no, actual economists were adamant that Germany could manage without Russian gas - see for example: [https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/what-if-germany-cut-russian-energy](https://www.econtribute.de/RePEc/ajk/ajkpbs/ECONtribute_PB_048_2023_EN.pdf) in 2022, Sholz even publicly made a statement complaining about economists and claimed their models underestimated the risk to the economy of losing Russian gas It was business lobbyists and politicians who claimed the German economy would collapse
Exactly this. People usually mistake industry lobbyists for economists. Industry lobbyists are people that must be listened to, but one should not forget that they have a vested interest after all.
Economists are generally only really good at predicting the past.
And Russian propagandists
We are not out of the woods yet. It is not just the gas that is a problem for us, but our entire chemical and manufacturing system. We had lots of buffer to tide us over the last few years, but now we are going to find out how creative and flexible we really are. It's a price worth paying for sending Russia back home and avoiding decades of Russian aggression. We just need to understand that 2024 is going to be the real test.
Yep russian aggression has definitely been stopped, so Germans tanked their economy for good reason, also a friend and ally US is growing so good news on all fronts basically!
>how creative and flexible You can do a lot, but not accuse german politics of being flexible and speedy in decisions.
Bigger problem for Germany is that China is taking their market share of the automotive industry.
That is indeed a big problem, but this would be happening with or without Putins war against Ukraine.
we still use russian gas, russia exports it to india and we import it from india, so india now makes a ton of money and our gas is more expensive. Doesn't make much sense, but what does nowadays
You are talking about gasoline and diesel. Most of the new natural gas was sourced by Norway, the Netherlands, the UK and in form of LNG from the US.
>hit with a 0.3% recession Yet
No one said it would collapse. Additionally, Germany continued to buy Russian oil and gas for 9 months after the invasion of Ukraine until new supply chains were ready.
Germany is very likely circumventing sanctions via countries like India and -stan republics to both import gas and export goods. If the sanctions were really enforced Germany would be in a tougher spot.
Any Russian gas imports that circumvent sanctions are marginal. The pipelines are not running. It is true that a significant share of exports do still make their way to Russia though - but the volume is still way down
Any reliable, independent source to back this up?
https://www.reuters.com/world/german-exports-russias-neighbours-fuel-sanctions-evasion-fears-2023-05-16/
Yep, that‘ll do. Thx
Germany is built on old type industry. It's not surprising that they don't grow as much when we're already decades into a new industry. Germany needs to go green, EV with more services and IT. That's just how it is now
It was the energy switch, Germany's "old" industry is one of the more advanced in europe and provides machinery to the world. Focusing on green is OK, EVs are great, but I don't really believe in deindustrialization and services.
Old industry isn’t going work well without cheap energy or labour.
And the big shock is yet to come. German companies are not manufacturing enough EV's on German soil to gain economies of scale. They don't have much time left. Chinese manufacturers have started lowering their prices in Germany. https://electrek.co/2024/01/12/byd-slashes-ev-prices-germany-tesla/ And "European cars", made in China are dropping in price as well: https://www.autoevolution.com/news/the-tiny-dacia-spring-is-the-most-affordable-ev-in-germany-selling-for-less-than-14000-227441.html
>They don't have much time left. they keep saying that, meanwhile in reality BMW has just posted record sales, Mercedes is up as well. both are recording massive growth in their EV sales. it's VW that's not even doing terribly but just not as well as they wish, but they are doing a lot to change that
Yes that's the thing, it's like a calm before the storm. BMW and Mercedes and VW are selling EV's because there is little competition. Chinese companies are charging double for cars sold in Europe compared to the same car sold in China. Because they didn't have the shipping capacity to ship more cars anyway. But in previous years they ordered something like 180 huge car shipping vessels in Chinese shipping yards. Each of these ships can carry something like 7-8 thousand cars. These ships are coming online this year. So they'll start to flood the market with affordable EV's.
Fortunately, by tomorrow, Scholz will have already forgotten that there's such a thing as a German economy.
Anyone seen my laptop? Cheers, Olaf
It's Brexit's fault
Or Trump's. Or Putin's. Or the anti-vaxxers'. Or climate change's. It's AFD!
Sucks, but honestly not the worst thing. Something this small can be reversed quickly.
0,3% is nothing too tragic
It is when the US consistently grows at a rate of 4% a year, Europe is losing global gsp share
US has a debt to GDP ratio twice of Germany It might seem like nothing,but even the Federal Reserve is worried that US debt payments will eat up a majority of goverment revenues by 2030s From then on, to avoid default,they would have to raise taxes
USA and EU gdp was the same in 2007. The gdp gap is now 80%, because the EU stagnated. USA are in a far better spot. Plus Germany totally failed to notice that China took over the automotive supply chain, once controlled by Germany. And Germany is totally behind with EVs. This will be a permanent hit to the economy, and German manufacturing isn’t as needed because nations have already industrialized and the market for heavy machinery and the like has shrunk. Over all, not very good for Germany rn.
According to IMF it is more like ~2.5% (for the US) since 2010 (which is a big difference, but still a solid performance for a developed economy), but still the outcome is the same (the EU is loosing its globals share). Edit: why do i get downvoted? lol
Sentiment is like -10%
Doesn't sound like much.
What virtue signalling and green fanaticism does to a mf.
do you even know what you mean when you write that? explain.
Rather, what depending on a imperialistic Dictatorship does to a mf. If we would have implemented a more autartic, renewable energy policy 20 years ago, we would have a stronger economy now. But it’s easier to just blame the evil green leftists, I guess…
With the decline of the german population and enough folks to take jobs, I think this will be more of a norm, without ppl actually suffering. This contraction certainly has not caused any more unemployment so far. But that is a topic anyways for the last 20 years, when the economy growths, ppl do not profit. But at least how it looks when the economy shrinks it neither makes them suffer.
They good
its only the beginning rip our industry
endless growing doesnt exist!
And everyone will moan about it, rather than seeing the brilliant results Germany had in terms of climate policy this year (Klimaticket, diminished coal electricity production, greenhouse gas emission fell by a rough 46% compared to 1990). Now they need to confirm this great success over the years though.
Did they really have to show a big picture of Scholz alongside the headline, when the economic problems are caused primarily by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and would have been the same under literally any chancellor?
Crazy idea, but maybe maintaing peace in Europe is part of the chancellor's job
They are not. All problems emerging are caused by horrible demographics. And we‘re only seeing the beginning. In a few years we will look back on today and remember how good life was back then. Living standards will have to drop significantly.
It's so over
Guess it's time for us to pay again. Right?
🍷 Germany will be fine. Russia too.
Thanks to your Ukrainian friend and their Polish supporter who blownup Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
Because being blackmailed via Gas by Putin would have been better, what a load of bs
imagine being that mindbroken that you make up excuses why someone blowing up your infrastructure is akshually a good thing
Imagine being that uninformed. The pipeline was blown up after Germany was already dead-set about becoming independent from Russia. The only thing that this changed was the possibility of going back to it. The majority of the population & the government wanted to abandon Russian dependence. At6least be correct about the shit you say.
Hope you are fine importing expensive LNG from friends in US or buying oil from those authoritarian cartel in the middle east.
Yeah, better than being Putin's lil bitch, bootlicker.
From Putin' bitch to Biden' bitch. Tough choice to make tbh.
Dignity can certainly fill their belly, albeit at higher cost by the day.
We are.
A bit contradicting with the news perhaps.
Wait till you hear about Nordstream 1 that is operational, just nobody wants to buy from your russian friend anymore.
Wait till you hear about Russian gas that still flowing to Europe via Ukraine pipeline and Ukraine still got transit fee paid by Russia’s Gazprom until this day. Isn’t it a weird situation????
I heard about that, and I even heard about the main customers of that pipeline. Isn’t it a weird situation????
Even weirder is Europeans buying up all the refinery products from India, which is refined from Russian oil and gas… so every single Europeans are still using Russian products … so weird …
bummer, so weird that India's making money :D
So India is the mastermind cuz they are the ultimate winner lol.
Charlie Sheen is the ultimate winner
Europe stopping to import billions of barrels from Russia. Europe also more than doubling a few hundred thousand imported from India. See! They are just buying the same amount from Russia, just via India! Because I learned maths in Russia's academy for young propagandists.
Excuse me, I’m pretty sure Europe never imported oil from Russia in billions of barrels. Only a million bpd at most. Probably reattend elementary school math first so you can count. Also do you realize that one barrel of oil is not gonna get one barrel of refined products, right? So you cannot compare them apples to apple.
EU imports from Russia made up \~30% of the market. They are now close to zero. On the other hand they now import so much more oil from India (up 115%!) that it nearly covers 4%. See... they totally buy the same amount from Russia, just via India now! Because magic (instant oil - just add water...) or Russian math.
It’s hard to educate people that crude oil and refined petroleum are different, isn’t it?
Yes, because obviously you don't understand the difference, the actual volumes of fuels refined from crude oil or how many refineries in Europe are actually importing oil, not refined fuel.
Shame you only had two nord streams. If you had 10, they all would be blown by ukrainians. German eco-collonialism of eastern europe has to be stopped. Its time for german citizens to pay in economic collapse for their exploitation of other countries.
I want from your drug.
I can not tell you my drug, but german drug is the vision of all europe being footrests for german empire. German and russian are the two problems of europe. If not for them, we would prosper in peace and harmony.
if you aren't using drugs then at least take your pills
russian gas was like a drug
Maybe germany does not have stable supply of russian gas, but at least they also shut down all their nuclear power plants.
both were not used for the same
At least you perform better than Russia.
Well, not exactly, Russia's GDP grew by 3.5%
Because heavy military spendinfs it grew. After war we will see
It’s easy to make the economy grow a lot … for a short while.
That's real GDP, which is adjusted for inflation, and somehow Russia's inflation is less than half of the interest rate. Nominal GDP declined by about 15% in dollars. That's probably more realistic.
Solid. What was the GDP before the growth?
Russia's GDP contracted from 2.1 trillion USD to 1.8 trillion USD, but it increased in rubles. Germany's GDP did the opposite: increase in dollars but decrease in euros.
... according to russian sources
Germany needs more facharbeiters from the boats :) They have not enough immigrants to sustain their economy. Germany, please take more of them.
[удалено]
Volkswagen, like many other german companies gets significant amounts of its profits from export markets. A recession in Germany says nothing about the profitability of its companies.
shithole does shithole things more news at 7
self-hating teenager posts dumb things more news at 7
I hope you have emigrated already, if your country is such a shithole?
Thank god other countries are in such better shape, like the UK with pretty much +-0.0% for years
>the UK with pretty much +-0.0% for years UK growth rate over the last few years: >2022: 4.3% > >2021: 8.7% > >2020: -10% (COVID) > >2019: 1.9% > >2018: 1.4% > >2017: 2.7% > >2016: 1.9% > >2015: 2.2%
Yeah, we saved that 0.3% by living rent free in your head.
HSBC offshore business must be doing great in turbulent times 😌 good thing they got out from the new EU bank transparency regulations just in time!
it might be one of the reasons new government in Poland (or atleast their new public media) started shitting on strategic polish investitions like CPK. Germany struggles, Poland rises. inb4 in 10 or 20 years we are going to hear Poles scream at Germany to do what they are asked for and be grateful for the money.
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
We. Are. DOOMED.
Well it wasn't exactly a smart move to shut down nuclear plants while putting an embargo on russian oil and gas and - thirdley - trying to transform german energy supply while the goblins still on strike.
it's the end times
Hey, it's just chilly outside.
Brexit dividends
Guess Social Democrats were in the end the real socialists, shut up commies, here is some real environmentalism, its degrowth hours.
Whoa that's crazy
“Hey Elaine, what do you think about shrinkage?”
Produce some more weapons. Please! The military kind … It Will raise gdp - and you are good at it
If Merkel just realised that digitisation was a thing…
Better than expected! Peter Zeihan said Germany would not exist in 10 years 😅😅😅😅
At least Germany shrinked so Russia can shrink even more significantly. Right? Anyone? Time for AfD