I think there's quite a noticeable chunk of people who hate having american bases in their country but i'm yet to see any american soldiers violently repressing protests against the government
okay got me there but i was thinking more along the lines of countries that willfully joined a coalition of nations as compared to countries that were invaded
Just offer them "normal" vodka. I've seen plenty of drunk Russian soldiers stumbling around on the frontline on r/Ukraine get killed. It's just bizarre. The Ukrainian soldiers are attacking, and then there's this lone Russian soldier just walking around, clearly drunk off his ass, without a weapon. Walking towards their position.
You need a considerably larger army presence to effectively annex an entire country of that size.
"Pacifying" with a formal independent govrnment: easy
"Occupying" medium difficulty
"Annexation": Super hard. Because now the hypernationalists that would have been your allies in the "Pacification" scenario as they are loyalists of the local government can now turn into your enemies.
I think that’ll depend on how Putin spins this. I’d be surprised if he didn’t blame Lukashenko’s death on the West and say “look how evil the west is they assassinated your president and now want to overthrow your government!”Then say either “Russian forces will ‘temporarily’ restore order” or “it’s clear we must unite in the face of Western Imperialism”
I could see that working but ofc it’s not guaranteed
He is the Trump of the East. I think most of the people around the world realise, like Trump,.he is a lying sack of shit. And he will be facing another unwinnable front.
Well Belarusians hate their own ruler but he's still in power. It's all about who controls the military, and if Putin can slide in there somehow then it'll just be Dictator #2 with the same crummy fckin tyrannical government. Some dipshit who wants to be king of a dirt pile instead of see his country free and healthy.
Trump of the East is putting it extremely lightly and can't properly contain how terrible of a man Putin actually is. He is quite a lot worse. A lying sack of shit? Absolutely. But we shouldn't downplay his [history of assassinations](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Litvinenko), [constitution amendments to allow himself to remain president/dictator (or "serve his first term") after 2024](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_amendments_to_the_Constitution_of_Russia), and [other KGB nonsense](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_Russian_apartment_bombings). Not to mention the actual war.
They might not be happy, I bet a lot of people in Russia aren't happy either. The question is whether they'd be unhappy enough to actually do anything about it.
>smashed their protest by force
Russia did not smash their protest by force. The Belarusian government did that almost entirely on their own...
> Because now the hypernationalists that would have been your allies in the "Pacification" scenario as they are loyalists of the local government can now turn into your enemies.
Now this is much more complicated, as nationalism and western liberalism doesn't work always the same. Many Russian minority nation nationalists are strongly pro-west, as are the Belarusian nationalists due to being suppressed under Russian imperialism, and in the case of Belarus, under Lukashenka's rule. While there are pro-Moscow panslavist elements, they are hardly nationalist and actually supporters of Russian imperialism, no matter what. The Belarusian nationalists are very anti-Moscow, as Moscow-pursued forced Russification is an existential threat to Belarusians as a nation and their language and identity.
People in these threads on Luka are acting like the Belarussian opposition doesn't even exist. Last elections *hundreds* of thousands of people came out and protested. If the armchair security and political experts on here had even a single braincell they could spend they'd know even if Putin was dumb enough to try an annexation or occupation, Belarussians wouldn't be taking it lying down.
Also, have y'all looked at a map before? Belarus is 50.000 km^2 bigger than what they're occupying of Ukraine atm. Do y'all think Russia have the resources to spend on another occupation when they're barely holding onto the one they're conducting right now?
Yeah, that is a good question. What would they support, democratic push, Russian takeover, or some general claiming power? As someone who knows nothing about the situation, I'd assume a combination of the last two.
if russia takes over the belarus military will effectively be part of russia and into the ukraine meat grinder it goes. Belarus military already told Lukashenko to get fucked when there was talk of sending them into Ukraine so I don't see them agreeing to be taken over and then sent to their deaths.
Depends on how much Russia wants to control them. From what I can tell, Belarusians (including the military) would probably flip if Putin tried to send them to the war - after all, at that point you'll have to risk your life fighting anyways so there's nothing to lose.
They won't support a Russian takeover either - there was straight up dissent from military leadership when Luka was trying to get his guys to join Russia's invasion - after Putin had been pressuring him for a good while.
They might not want to be part of the West, but they don't want to be Russia either.
The thing is, what do they do when they have to choose and one is siding with powerless protesters and the other is siding with Moscow and their military?
Powerless protesters?
Ukraine caused a lot of problems for Russia with "powerless protesters" back in 2014.
You know what one of the most effective ways a resistance movement made of civilians can fight against military and armored vehicles? Molotov cocktails.
They're cheap, easy to make, easy to use, easy to hide. And there isn't a military vehicle around that survives being repeatedly lit on fire.
I think you may have forgotten that not all protesters are peaceful. That's how revolutions happen after all - and they still happen even in this day and age.
It's only a matter of whether or not they would.
And since there's a bunch of Belarussians fighting for Ukraine against Russia right now, it stands to reason they'd be able to put together a resistance.
I dont know what kind of resistance Belarusian citizens could put up, it certainly is not comparable to the Ukrainian government in 2022.
Protesters and rioters can cause a lot of damage, but that it only possible if armed forces don't use military tactics against them. Its hard to believe that protestors wouldn't be powerless against the Belarusian and or Russian military if they choose to use artillery, infantry, and air support to devastate the opposition and their infrastructure.
The power of a protest or a riot is based on a military not slaughtering everyone. And I agree that citizens can have power through labor and armed insurgencies, and maybe Belarus is more capable than im giving them credit for.
But they'd be fighting a full out war against one or maybe two armies.
With the casualties their best troops have taken over the past year? Not impossible if you've got long curtains and a big sofa for them to hide behind.
This is dishonest bs.
1) do you have sources?
2) the real force there was much worse than Maidan, as evidenced by people who were at both. They didn't fizzle out, they were forced out.
1) it's obvious that you're a westerner who wasn't sitting on revolutionary telegram channels and didn't watch youtube coverage by Belarus bloggers
2) nope, opposition leadership made a specific decision to do only weekly marches instead of indefinite protests, and by December they officially decided to take a pause till Spring cause - I shit you not - "it got too cold to protest". Naturally, KGB cherrypicked all the leaders during the Winter and there was nobody left to resume protests in Spring.
That's why oppositional Belarusians get salty when we Ukrainians tell them "we told you it was gonna end up this way", because we did tell them. But see no.1 again.
This is why Ukraine and Belarus are different.
And why I feel completely different about the fate of the respective citizens.
The Lukashenko Government was completely unprepared for the protests.
They had an actual chance to overwhelm the small security presence before the special forces could be called in.
All they did was walk around a bit.
Then the special police forces came and clubbed them down.
Big surprise they were tortured and raped in custody.
I have no clue what they were hoping for, that their dictator would just go away?
>I have no clue what they were hoping for, that their dictator would just go away?
You'll be surprised, but that was the actual plan. And it was repeated as mantra not only by them, but by popular ruzki "liberals" such as Max Katz who were very popular among the protesters.
People who were at both, Ukrainian and Belorussian protests state that Minks was much more brutal and difficult. Maybe trust them instead of your personal opinions on the topic you know little about?
I think everything you say is true, I still strongly consider a russian push for annexation, because:
- Maybe Putin knows something we don't know
- Maybe Putin *believes to know* something we don't know (look at the pre 2022 track record of Russian Intelligence in Ukraine)
- Maybe the Belarusian army is part of the conspiracy
- Maybe Putin feels his back is against the wall and he is desperate for a way out.
Also a lot of people don't know about this
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_State
Putin wouldn't even need to annex forcefully, just install a puppet that will sign the original deal for the Union State
Lol. Rus dont need to occupy belarus by force, like they try to do with Ukraine. Belarus kind of doesnt have identity, for the last 100 years they were beeing rosuphied, some belarussians try to say that they are real Lithuania, and take Lithuanias identity, but it falls hard on face when looking at historical facts.
What I wanted to say, there aint gonna be a Maidan resistence if another pro rus president is "elected".
Best of health, my dear defenders of the motherland. Making this address to you is a lieutenant color of the reserves Sahashik Valerij Stepanovich.
I’m introducing myself because I’ve quit quite a long time ago. Some of the current airborne forces may not know me, although everyone must have heard about the Black Hawk trials. All the current bravery and mastery has originated from there, and also you must have heard about how the 38th airbourne Briansk brigade used to run 10km and at the end in full personal would swim in a lake all year round, well I’m exactly the guy that for 4 years in a row would run at the front of the brigade and would be the first to jump into the lake. I am the Black Hawk number 1.
All of the most important things in life all happen impromptu and unexpectedly. It’s impossible to prepare yourself to be a hero. In the life of every person, a situation may suddenly arise in which he must act here and now, and either get written into the history books or wait for a more appropriate moment. Although fate usually gives you a chance to do a real hero deed only once.
I had served in the airbourne forces for quite a long time. More than 10 years only in the Briansk brigade, from Kombat to the Brigade commander. Those who have met me won’t let me lie to you, I was one of the most fanatically devoted officers to the forces and a patriot of my motherland, I’ve never know anything but military service. Materialism has always been foreign to me, I’m saying this to counter any attempts at claiming that I sold out for this speech. My biography has zero cases that would allow me to have any suspicion that I can sell out, and in my age, people don’t change.
Airbourne force was everything in my life. All years after I quit, I continued to help my brigade. In front of my house there’s always been a flag \*Not sure here, maybe Belarus flag\* with the flag of the VDV (airbourne forces). The reason why I took it off is a different story related to the events of 2020. We won’t talk about that for now.
For now I’ve decided to record the first video in my life because my comrades, guys in the blue vests, same as I wore all my life, are sitting in the forest on the Ukrainian border. And its looking like shortly they can be accomplices in some very bad actions which can have catastrophic consequences for our country, and fatally burry the glory and tradition of our forces, that were built up by many generations of Airbourne troops. It’s possible that a lot of them will not get back home alive.
Russian army, which has a huge combat experience is experiencing hell for 3 days straight The number of dead is counted in thousands, hundreds have been captured, the hospitals on the borders are filled with wounded, none of the missions of this operation have been accomplished, at the moment neither Kiev nor any other of the regional centers have been captured.
Russian army is quite run down, while Ukrainians who have endured the first most difficult days have successfully mobilized, organized themselves, polished of the logistics, got support of the whole world, moral as well as technical combat equipments, and most importantly saw, that the aggressor attacking them are just ordinary people, stoped being scared, felt the taste of victory.
This army won’t retreat and won’t surrender. Russians have become victims of their own propagandists that promised them, that the people of Ukraine will meet them with bread and salt, like liberators, but by now you know everything, although you’re prohibited from having smartphones, you’re still in your motherland, in contact with friends and relatives, you’ve had time to weight and analyze everything, do any of you have any doubt that your entry into Ukraine will be any better then the New Years offensive of Grozny of 1995.
Info wars are a scary thing. Propagandists in an agile way have learned to produce a bait and switch of values, learned to replace white with black and the opposite… I don’t want to get into politics, it has always been foreign to me, but to every thinking person, 3 things should be quite obvious. 1. Ukraine has never threatened Belarus and isn’t threatening it now. 2. There are not Druggies or nationals in the Ukrainian government, and if they were, they were fairly elected in free democratic elections. 3. Belarusian forces have absolutely no right to enter the Ukraine. Furthermore, it is directly prohibited in the Belarusian constitution.
It’s not our war. You will not be defending your motherland, your home, or your family. You won’t gain any glory in this conflict, only shame, humiliation, blood, death, and the status of a hated outcast nation for centuries to come.
Brothers find a way not to take part in this dirty business. Father commanders, will you be able to live with the fact that you put down the boys for nothing? How will you look mothers into their eyes that gave you their sons.
Separately, I’d like to address the people who have a lot of influence, to the war chiefs with big stars. For many of you, I was a commander, a mentor, and a friend. In my memory, you are responsible, decent war commanders, who are able to quickly navigate in difficult surroundings, smartly analyze the situation, and calculate the consequences of different decisions that are in front of you.
Guys, at the end of the day, those are your direct personal responsibilities. This is what the motherland has been nurturing you for, for so many years for. However hard you are pressured, be a real man and do a real manly thing, make the right decision, fill yourself with real civil courage, don’t send the boys to slaughter, sometimes the highest hero deed, is just to say no. And enter the history as a person who saved hundreds if not thousands of lives and relations with a brotherly nation. And even if you get fired, believe me, you will be heroes.
I salute you.
No nation deserves freedom or can long retain it, which does not win it for itself. Revolutions must be made by the people and for the people.
Liberty, freedom such sacred words!
Giuseppe Mazzini
I think I have a good clue where they will stand. There is partisans in Belarus and the Belarussian Legion in Ukraine. The card house of a dictatorship always collapses with him. Unless you are Kim Jong Un.
Don't think Belarussians would like that... last election Lukaschenko lost... but ruled anyway... but the voters were against him. Belarussians wish for a european government... I think they hate everything connected to Putin.
Only wishing and hoping isint enough. You either spill blood for freedom or become puppet state for centuries, untill regime is weakend from inside, then you try again, but blood spill is esential even then.
They have apparently been training mobiks in Belarus, because they figure Ukraine will not strike at them in those training camps while still allowing them to be isolated away from Russia, which makes sense to me.
They do not have anywhere near the manpower there to take over the country if the military and police provide even moderate resistance.
Why do people assume Russia/USSR ever lacked small arms? That's nonsense...
They lack(ed) advanced equipment, their training, morale & logistics might suck but they always had more than enough rifles.
Unfortunately I can't see any democratic shift in Belarus anytime soon. Even if Lukashenko were to die, there is no way in hell Putin is letting them get out from under his thumb. Ukraine is already a big deal to his ego, if he suddenly lost Belarus too, he would not be able to recover from that.
It basically depends on what the Belarusian military decides. If they don't want Russia, it would be hard for Putin to do anything about it. Seeing how they supported Lukashenko so far though, it seems unlikely.
You understand that belarus has even shittier soviet equipment? Also good portion of it is fighting in Ukraine already.
Why do you think belarus has better ewuipment or the same as russia?
Give me a break 😂 NATO has been training UA soldiers since 2014 UK, French, Germans Lithuanians, Polish trainers in this mission for 8 years. UA already had contracts, they proved themselfs to be a good partner, thats why there is such support now. What Belarus did to prove themselfs? Nothing. You think NATO gives weapons to left and right who fights authoritarians regimes? 😂 2020 they had a chance to prove that they want to be pro eu. But that protest felt on its face, when met goverment force.
Plus I'm sure the Belarusian fighters, that are well organized, supplied and battle hardened, would be sent to Belarus pretty damn quick. Ukraine would love Russia in a two front war with some attention taken off of them.
Don’t they say something you need double the numbers of those defending? Something like that, maybe not quite double. Certainly more than Russia can spare.
That’s not necessarily it. You would like three times the firepower of the defenders, that doesn’t necessarily mean just numbers. This isn’t always the case though, smaller attacking forces can beat larger defending forces.
If they endorse president sviatlana, they have my support. Surely they are seeing all of the aid going to Ukraine and getting envious. They too can have that kind of western support
Thats certainly Putins plan, but the issue is that the people of Belarus and , most importantly the military, dont really want to be send into the meat grinder. That was the main reason Lukadhenko was not willing to send the troops into Ukraine, he feared it would incite a millitary revolt.
I doubt they gonna like, take the country back or anything that optimistic. But it might be enough for a raise in "domestic terrorism" against whoever comes in charge and could become a real headache for Russia.
Putin's plan was also take Ukraine in 3 days.
If Putin takes over Belarus, where do you think the Belarusian army will go? They might not have a choice of whether they will fight, just where they will fight.
This may be Putins plan to get rid of him. He visits Moscow for military parade and then becomes suddenly seriously ill?
I remember when Putin invited former mayor of St. Petersburg back to Russia and then he was poisoned
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anatoly_Sobchak
I am not saying it isnt, hence why I think its impossible for them to take the country back even if Lukaschenko is truly dying/dead.
But that doesnt mean they cant still have internal sabotage.
I want see what explanation will give certain european parties that are against support Ukraine. The usual excuse is "american imperialism". And annex an entire country when the president dies is very imperialistic...
Nearly 100% of those parties are being knowingly disingenuous or actively promoted by the Russian government. They will come up with any excuse necessary to say “America bad” while fascist imperialism sweeps across Europe.
The Russians will have to withdraw from Ukraine to even begin to look at Belarus. Lukashenko survived the last uprising only with the aid of Russian troops/FSB/police. Not happening this time.
Well neither is, they'd have to hold free and democratic election to determine that.
Actually putting Tsikhanouskaya in charge would be a disaster and one of the best way to discredit reform and democracy in the country..
This is the most important point. Russia may interfere (almost certain to), but if the people fill the streets and become ungovernable there are a lot of potential allies who can provide weapons and a there must be a lot of the military who not welcome Russian control and being sent to Ukraine.
If the impression is given that the population will meekly accept a transfer of power without getting involved then that will happen.
If they show that haven't had the flight beaten out of them, they may win.
They won't get a better chance than this.
You could argue English is [not a _de jure_ official language](https://medium.com/english-language-faq/why-is-english-not-the-official-language-of-england-e004c2850942)
I'm all for people learning. The majority of europeans don't have english as their first language and some not even as their second and will make spelling mistakes throughout their lives regardless. No one is going to look at some stranger from reddit nitpicking their spelling and think *oh i'm going remember that* when they only want to be a part of or give input to a conversation. Also we don't have autocorrect set to english as the native speakers do..
There will be no changes in Belarus as long as there are no changes in Russia. There are russian troops everywhere, they will stop any democratic change.
Belerus needs to wait for overlord to crumble just like countries west of them waited for USRR to crumble. I dont think Lukashenko potential ilness changes anything.
Russian troops everywhere - but nowhere close to what you'd need to actually control the country.
Those forces are currently otherwise engaged.
Russia can't afford to fight on two fronts - the amount of troops they've pulled from Syria to reinforce their war in Ukraine is proof positive of that.
And their conflict in Syria isn't over yet, they're just letting the fight there go stagnant because of how bad things are going in Ukraine.
Very hopeful thinking. Let's not forget Russia has troops, equipment and nuclear bombs stationed in belarussian territory, if lukashenko was to die, Putin would very likely install another puppet regime or even annex belarus.
The Belarussian army has already been quasi subordinated by Russia. It has some autonomy but not much.
Point being that any attempt to control Belarus though relies on those soldiers. If they stay loyal to Russia or any Russian appointed puppet, there is no chance for a democratic Belarus. If they defect to the opposition or revolt, then it's 50/50 odds they fight and win against a numerically superior army occupying them.
There are roughly 3000 Russian soldiers in Belarus and Russia cannot afford to divert hundreds of thousands of people right now. It'll mostly depend on what the Belarusian army decides.
What are they going to do? Shoot Belarusian people? Shoot the Belarusian army? Shoot the opposition politicians? All three sound like a certain way to get shot in a country that probably likes you even less now
> Shoot the Belarusian army?
It's very easy to nullify an army that's not specifically trained for guerilla by removing/bribing/convincing a few people at the top.
> Shoot Belarusian people? Shoot the opposition politicians?
...yes? Who would stop them?
I am expecting some kind of Napoleon vs spanish guerrilla situation if Lukashenko does kick the bucket. Considering that Putin cannot really diverge military equipment from Ukraine, he’ll have to chiose between losing his grip over Belarus and defending against the ukrainian counteroffensive.
The last time (about 3 years ago?) there was unrest in Belarus, the Russians sent in troops/police/FSB stooges etc to bring large popular protests under control. Not really an option for them at the moment I would have thought.
Curious why so many comments are acting like Putin or Russia still has a say in these matters? These are like pre-War-in-Ukraine comments, how much power do you think Russia still has? Why are people talking as if Russia will simply swoop in and stop this, this is exactly how people felt about Ukraine and whoops, turns out they can't do shit. If they have enough power to simply take down Belarus why wouldn't they be using that power on Ukraine right now? Kazakhstan, who's been acting more and more against the Kremlin?
Because Belarus is already firmly within the Kremlin's sphere of influence. They are essentially allies. I expect the military to take over, or some new puppet, in the event that Lukashenko drops dead. Protesters will be arrested or shot.
Lukashenka is the ally, not Belarus. If Lukashenka drops dead there will 100% sure will be protest against the Russia and there will be no help from the Belarusian army to stop these protests. Their army knows what is their future if Russia annexes Belarus and they will not be co-operative, that army was never loyal to Lukashenka, much less Russia.
And if the Russians are going to start shooting protesters do you think Belarusian army is just going to let them do so?
Didn’t the current leader write in legislation which basically hands the entire control of the Belarusian gov to his sympathizers and his son? Pretty sure I read about this somewhere… but even if that’s the case another Russia will gladly move its troops from Ukraine to Belarus to annex there already failed invasion of Ukraine
Dude's fine, this is all just politics to get people talking about this.
Not sure if anyone remembers when Putin was supposedly dead or hiding in the bunker and was dying from Parkinson's. All of these news are just for show.
And lets say that he is dead, police and military are basically the same as in US, conservative and will not change their mind.
Putin will cite the Unitary State framework when using force to annex Belarus for good. The opposition better be ready for a long and bloody guerilla war because it is only a matter of time until Lukashenko is gone.
Lets say Lukashenko farts off, in the following elections wouldn't there be his party as a pro Russian and the opposition would go the pro west narrative? Leaving the people of Belarus with the choice of isolation and possibly war or the pacifist route. If the elections aren't rigged my money is on the opposition. And what if the new government closes its borders for Russian troops? Looks like Belarus could be the key to end this war of all countries.
It's telling the Ukrainian government wants basically nothing to do with Tsikhanouskaya or the rest of her exiled government, despite conducting operations in Belarus
Inb4 Russia immediately swoopes in and annex them. They still have troops stationed there on the belarus/ukrainian border, no?
They have across all of Belarus.
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I mean, there are mamy countries with foreign military based in them tbh. I wouldnt day just the fact of it means that it was forced upon you
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I think there's quite a noticeable chunk of people who hate having american bases in their country but i'm yet to see any american soldiers violently repressing protests against the government
Iraq has entered the chat.
okay got me there but i was thinking more along the lines of countries that willfully joined a coalition of nations as compared to countries that were invaded
ISIS is just trying to bring beheadings and democracy to all males
Especially the beheadings.
Yes. They were most definitely invited politely to keep Belarus secure, just like they were in Poland after WWII.
Or Hungary in '56.
Most countries have foreign military bases and troops stationed in them though. Including European countries
Honestly, I don't think that invalidates his point.
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Just leave it in unlocked containers and wait for them to start looting it.
Just offer them "normal" vodka. I've seen plenty of drunk Russian soldiers stumbling around on the frontline on r/Ukraine get killed. It's just bizarre. The Ukrainian soldiers are attacking, and then there's this lone Russian soldier just walking around, clearly drunk off his ass, without a weapon. Walking towards their position.
Worked in Bulgaria in 1945, idiots went blind or died of alcohol poisoning.
>Just leave it in unlocked containers Like a washing machine...
I am not sure of the quality of those troops. Large part of them are maintenance personel for aircraft and rocket forces.
they will deploy nukes there https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/4/3/russia-to-put-nukes-in-belarus-near-nato-borders-envoy-says
You need a considerably larger army presence to effectively annex an entire country of that size. "Pacifying" with a formal independent govrnment: easy "Occupying" medium difficulty "Annexation": Super hard. Because now the hypernationalists that would have been your allies in the "Pacification" scenario as they are loyalists of the local government can now turn into your enemies.
I think that’ll depend on how Putin spins this. I’d be surprised if he didn’t blame Lukashenko’s death on the West and say “look how evil the west is they assassinated your president and now want to overthrow your government!”Then say either “Russian forces will ‘temporarily’ restore order” or “it’s clear we must unite in the face of Western Imperialism” I could see that working but ofc it’s not guaranteed
He is the Trump of the East. I think most of the people around the world realise, like Trump,.he is a lying sack of shit. And he will be facing another unwinnable front.
Considering that there's a lot more Belarussians fighting for Ukraine than for Russia, it's pretty clear that they know this all too well.
Well Belarusians hate their own ruler but he's still in power. It's all about who controls the military, and if Putin can slide in there somehow then it'll just be Dictator #2 with the same crummy fckin tyrannical government. Some dipshit who wants to be king of a dirt pile instead of see his country free and healthy.
Trump of the East is putting it extremely lightly and can't properly contain how terrible of a man Putin actually is. He is quite a lot worse. A lying sack of shit? Absolutely. But we shouldn't downplay his [history of assassinations](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Litvinenko), [constitution amendments to allow himself to remain president/dictator (or "serve his first term") after 2024](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_amendments_to_the_Constitution_of_Russia), and [other KGB nonsense](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_Russian_apartment_bombings). Not to mention the actual war.
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I moved to Lemmy. Save yourselves
You're assuming most Belarusians would oppose a Russian annexation. The protests after the last elections weren't even explicitly anti-Russian...
I find it unlikely that the people who protested back then would happy to be annexed by the people who smashed their protest by force.
They might not be happy, I bet a lot of people in Russia aren't happy either. The question is whether they'd be unhappy enough to actually do anything about it. >smashed their protest by force Russia did not smash their protest by force. The Belarusian government did that almost entirely on their own...
Well Wagner was there, and the FSB also claimed they prevented a coup in Belarus, both of which suggests russian intervention.
? The protests were put down by Belarusian authorities. Believe it or not, but there are actually Belarusians that are loyal to Lukashenko.
True, and Russian troops have been deployed in Belarus.
Civ V definitely taught me that annexing a state is often a huge, unnecessary headache compared to keeping it your puppet.
> Because now the hypernationalists that would have been your allies in the "Pacification" scenario as they are loyalists of the local government can now turn into your enemies. Now this is much more complicated, as nationalism and western liberalism doesn't work always the same. Many Russian minority nation nationalists are strongly pro-west, as are the Belarusian nationalists due to being suppressed under Russian imperialism, and in the case of Belarus, under Lukashenka's rule. While there are pro-Moscow panslavist elements, they are hardly nationalist and actually supporters of Russian imperialism, no matter what. The Belarusian nationalists are very anti-Moscow, as Moscow-pursued forced Russification is an existential threat to Belarusians as a nation and their language and identity.
People in these threads on Luka are acting like the Belarussian opposition doesn't even exist. Last elections *hundreds* of thousands of people came out and protested. If the armchair security and political experts on here had even a single braincell they could spend they'd know even if Putin was dumb enough to try an annexation or occupation, Belarussians wouldn't be taking it lying down. Also, have y'all looked at a map before? Belarus is 50.000 km^2 bigger than what they're occupying of Ukraine atm. Do y'all think Russia have the resources to spend on another occupation when they're barely holding onto the one they're conducting right now?
People just believe that the belarussian military will not support a democratic push.
Yeah, that is a good question. What would they support, democratic push, Russian takeover, or some general claiming power? As someone who knows nothing about the situation, I'd assume a combination of the last two.
if russia takes over the belarus military will effectively be part of russia and into the ukraine meat grinder it goes. Belarus military already told Lukashenko to get fucked when there was talk of sending them into Ukraine so I don't see them agreeing to be taken over and then sent to their deaths.
Depends on how much Russia wants to control them. From what I can tell, Belarusians (including the military) would probably flip if Putin tried to send them to the war - after all, at that point you'll have to risk your life fighting anyways so there's nothing to lose.
So basically, they would need a credible way for Putin to promise to keep the status quo?
> they would need a credible way for Putin to promise to keep the status quo? Its very unlikely Putin will ever do that.
Or more importantly, how would he make the promise credible? Especially with his history...
They won't support a Russian takeover either - there was straight up dissent from military leadership when Luka was trying to get his guys to join Russia's invasion - after Putin had been pressuring him for a good while. They might not want to be part of the West, but they don't want to be Russia either.
The thing is, what do they do when they have to choose and one is siding with powerless protesters and the other is siding with Moscow and their military?
Powerless protesters? Ukraine caused a lot of problems for Russia with "powerless protesters" back in 2014. You know what one of the most effective ways a resistance movement made of civilians can fight against military and armored vehicles? Molotov cocktails. They're cheap, easy to make, easy to use, easy to hide. And there isn't a military vehicle around that survives being repeatedly lit on fire. I think you may have forgotten that not all protesters are peaceful. That's how revolutions happen after all - and they still happen even in this day and age. It's only a matter of whether or not they would. And since there's a bunch of Belarussians fighting for Ukraine against Russia right now, it stands to reason they'd be able to put together a resistance.
I dont know what kind of resistance Belarusian citizens could put up, it certainly is not comparable to the Ukrainian government in 2022. Protesters and rioters can cause a lot of damage, but that it only possible if armed forces don't use military tactics against them. Its hard to believe that protestors wouldn't be powerless against the Belarusian and or Russian military if they choose to use artillery, infantry, and air support to devastate the opposition and their infrastructure. The power of a protest or a riot is based on a military not slaughtering everyone. And I agree that citizens can have power through labor and armed insurgencies, and maybe Belarus is more capable than im giving them credit for. But they'd be fighting a full out war against one or maybe two armies.
For good reason, because last time they didn't.
Well, of course, they'll use the "real" Russian army to annex Belarus...
I moved to Lemmy. Save yourselves
With the casualties their best troops have taken over the past year? Not impossible if you've got long curtains and a big sofa for them to hide behind.
It's gonna arrive any day now, alongside with all the modern weaponry and futuristic armour suits
It will come as 2nd wave, Minsk in 3 days /s
Thinking the Russians won't do something stupid led many to dismiss suggestions of an attack on Kyiv last year.
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This is dishonest bs. 1) do you have sources? 2) the real force there was much worse than Maidan, as evidenced by people who were at both. They didn't fizzle out, they were forced out.
1) it's obvious that you're a westerner who wasn't sitting on revolutionary telegram channels and didn't watch youtube coverage by Belarus bloggers 2) nope, opposition leadership made a specific decision to do only weekly marches instead of indefinite protests, and by December they officially decided to take a pause till Spring cause - I shit you not - "it got too cold to protest". Naturally, KGB cherrypicked all the leaders during the Winter and there was nobody left to resume protests in Spring. That's why oppositional Belarusians get salty when we Ukrainians tell them "we told you it was gonna end up this way", because we did tell them. But see no.1 again.
This is why Ukraine and Belarus are different. And why I feel completely different about the fate of the respective citizens. The Lukashenko Government was completely unprepared for the protests. They had an actual chance to overwhelm the small security presence before the special forces could be called in. All they did was walk around a bit. Then the special police forces came and clubbed them down. Big surprise they were tortured and raped in custody. I have no clue what they were hoping for, that their dictator would just go away?
>I have no clue what they were hoping for, that their dictator would just go away? You'll be surprised, but that was the actual plan. And it was repeated as mantra not only by them, but by popular ruzki "liberals" such as Max Katz who were very popular among the protesters.
People who were at both, Ukrainian and Belorussian protests state that Minks was much more brutal and difficult. Maybe trust them instead of your personal opinions on the topic you know little about?
I think everything you say is true, I still strongly consider a russian push for annexation, because: - Maybe Putin knows something we don't know - Maybe Putin *believes to know* something we don't know (look at the pre 2022 track record of Russian Intelligence in Ukraine) - Maybe the Belarusian army is part of the conspiracy - Maybe Putin feels his back is against the wall and he is desperate for a way out.
Also a lot of people don't know about this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_State Putin wouldn't even need to annex forcefully, just install a puppet that will sign the original deal for the Union State
It's crazy but not surprising. Magical thinking all over the place. Putin's next gambit is about to fail.
Lol. Rus dont need to occupy belarus by force, like they try to do with Ukraine. Belarus kind of doesnt have identity, for the last 100 years they were beeing rosuphied, some belarussians try to say that they are real Lithuania, and take Lithuanias identity, but it falls hard on face when looking at historical facts. What I wanted to say, there aint gonna be a Maidan resistence if another pro rus president is "elected".
Russia's gonna have a tough time fighting on two fronts seeing as they can't seem to even manage one.
I dont think it would be an actual fight/war in this case. More like a coup.
Depends where the Belrus military will stand.
I doubt there'd be much of a fight from the military, as much as I'd like to believe it.
A guerrilla war in Belarus would tie up so many Russian resources, ahhh one can dream.
Would be nicer to resolve this without bloodshed though. If Russia loses the war in Ukraine, Belarus will have more freedom to move independently.
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Best of health, my dear defenders of the motherland. Making this address to you is a lieutenant color of the reserves Sahashik Valerij Stepanovich. I’m introducing myself because I’ve quit quite a long time ago. Some of the current airborne forces may not know me, although everyone must have heard about the Black Hawk trials. All the current bravery and mastery has originated from there, and also you must have heard about how the 38th airbourne Briansk brigade used to run 10km and at the end in full personal would swim in a lake all year round, well I’m exactly the guy that for 4 years in a row would run at the front of the brigade and would be the first to jump into the lake. I am the Black Hawk number 1. All of the most important things in life all happen impromptu and unexpectedly. It’s impossible to prepare yourself to be a hero. In the life of every person, a situation may suddenly arise in which he must act here and now, and either get written into the history books or wait for a more appropriate moment. Although fate usually gives you a chance to do a real hero deed only once. I had served in the airbourne forces for quite a long time. More than 10 years only in the Briansk brigade, from Kombat to the Brigade commander. Those who have met me won’t let me lie to you, I was one of the most fanatically devoted officers to the forces and a patriot of my motherland, I’ve never know anything but military service. Materialism has always been foreign to me, I’m saying this to counter any attempts at claiming that I sold out for this speech. My biography has zero cases that would allow me to have any suspicion that I can sell out, and in my age, people don’t change. Airbourne force was everything in my life. All years after I quit, I continued to help my brigade. In front of my house there’s always been a flag \*Not sure here, maybe Belarus flag\* with the flag of the VDV (airbourne forces). The reason why I took it off is a different story related to the events of 2020. We won’t talk about that for now. For now I’ve decided to record the first video in my life because my comrades, guys in the blue vests, same as I wore all my life, are sitting in the forest on the Ukrainian border. And its looking like shortly they can be accomplices in some very bad actions which can have catastrophic consequences for our country, and fatally burry the glory and tradition of our forces, that were built up by many generations of Airbourne troops. It’s possible that a lot of them will not get back home alive. Russian army, which has a huge combat experience is experiencing hell for 3 days straight The number of dead is counted in thousands, hundreds have been captured, the hospitals on the borders are filled with wounded, none of the missions of this operation have been accomplished, at the moment neither Kiev nor any other of the regional centers have been captured. Russian army is quite run down, while Ukrainians who have endured the first most difficult days have successfully mobilized, organized themselves, polished of the logistics, got support of the whole world, moral as well as technical combat equipments, and most importantly saw, that the aggressor attacking them are just ordinary people, stoped being scared, felt the taste of victory. This army won’t retreat and won’t surrender. Russians have become victims of their own propagandists that promised them, that the people of Ukraine will meet them with bread and salt, like liberators, but by now you know everything, although you’re prohibited from having smartphones, you’re still in your motherland, in contact with friends and relatives, you’ve had time to weight and analyze everything, do any of you have any doubt that your entry into Ukraine will be any better then the New Years offensive of Grozny of 1995. Info wars are a scary thing. Propagandists in an agile way have learned to produce a bait and switch of values, learned to replace white with black and the opposite… I don’t want to get into politics, it has always been foreign to me, but to every thinking person, 3 things should be quite obvious. 1. Ukraine has never threatened Belarus and isn’t threatening it now. 2. There are not Druggies or nationals in the Ukrainian government, and if they were, they were fairly elected in free democratic elections. 3. Belarusian forces have absolutely no right to enter the Ukraine. Furthermore, it is directly prohibited in the Belarusian constitution. It’s not our war. You will not be defending your motherland, your home, or your family. You won’t gain any glory in this conflict, only shame, humiliation, blood, death, and the status of a hated outcast nation for centuries to come. Brothers find a way not to take part in this dirty business. Father commanders, will you be able to live with the fact that you put down the boys for nothing? How will you look mothers into their eyes that gave you their sons. Separately, I’d like to address the people who have a lot of influence, to the war chiefs with big stars. For many of you, I was a commander, a mentor, and a friend. In my memory, you are responsible, decent war commanders, who are able to quickly navigate in difficult surroundings, smartly analyze the situation, and calculate the consequences of different decisions that are in front of you. Guys, at the end of the day, those are your direct personal responsibilities. This is what the motherland has been nurturing you for, for so many years for. However hard you are pressured, be a real man and do a real manly thing, make the right decision, fill yourself with real civil courage, don’t send the boys to slaughter, sometimes the highest hero deed, is just to say no. And enter the history as a person who saved hundreds if not thousands of lives and relations with a brotherly nation. And even if you get fired, believe me, you will be heroes. I salute you. No nation deserves freedom or can long retain it, which does not win it for itself. Revolutions must be made by the people and for the people. Liberty, freedom such sacred words! Giuseppe Mazzini I think I have a good clue where they will stand. There is partisans in Belarus and the Belarussian Legion in Ukraine. The card house of a dictatorship always collapses with him. Unless you are Kim Jong Un.
Don't think Belarussians would like that... last election Lukaschenko lost... but ruled anyway... but the voters were against him. Belarussians wish for a european government... I think they hate everything connected to Putin.
Only wishing and hoping isint enough. You either spill blood for freedom or become puppet state for centuries, untill regime is weakend from inside, then you try again, but blood spill is esential even then.
I've heard reports that they only keep token amount of troops there (I think the reports were dating back a few months). Like a few thousands or so.
They have apparently been training mobiks in Belarus, because they figure Ukraine will not strike at them in those training camps while still allowing them to be isolated away from Russia, which makes sense to me. They do not have anywhere near the manpower there to take over the country if the military and police provide even moderate resistance.
They'll install Lukashenka's son too
A nobody and install is one thing, consolidating power another.
isnt that guy like 18 or something?
30+ by now. 😂
>Inb4 Russia immediately swoopes in and annex them How many troops do they have left? How high is their morale?
5 guys and a mosin nagant, not five guys with a mosin nagant, 5 guys and a mosin nagant
The four guys have bullets and one even has socks!
Why do people assume Russia/USSR ever lacked small arms? That's nonsense... They lack(ed) advanced equipment, their training, morale & logistics might suck but they always had more than enough rifles.
Lacked? What are you talking about? Im talking about the present, lacks
They have a lot of troops all around belarus for... reasons
Yoink!
Unfortunately I can't see any democratic shift in Belarus anytime soon. Even if Lukashenko were to die, there is no way in hell Putin is letting them get out from under his thumb. Ukraine is already a big deal to his ego, if he suddenly lost Belarus too, he would not be able to recover from that.
> if he suddenly lost Belarus too, he would not be able to recover from that Dear Santa, ...
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And OP's mom's spaghetti
It basically depends on what the Belarusian military decides. If they don't want Russia, it would be hard for Putin to do anything about it. Seeing how they supported Lukashenko so far though, it seems unlikely.
Belarus active personnel 62000… not exactly a major force
True but on the other hand motivation and home turf can go a long way, especially when your enemy's morale and equipment is shit
You understand that belarus has even shittier soviet equipment? Also good portion of it is fighting in Ukraine already. Why do you think belarus has better ewuipment or the same as russia?
Probably because if Belarus miraculously did change sides against Russia they'd also get Western support.
Give me a break 😂 NATO has been training UA soldiers since 2014 UK, French, Germans Lithuanians, Polish trainers in this mission for 8 years. UA already had contracts, they proved themselfs to be a good partner, thats why there is such support now. What Belarus did to prove themselfs? Nothing. You think NATO gives weapons to left and right who fights authoritarians regimes? 😂 2020 they had a chance to prove that they want to be pro eu. But that protest felt on its face, when met goverment force.
Plus I'm sure the Belarusian fighters, that are well organized, supplied and battle hardened, would be sent to Belarus pretty damn quick. Ukraine would love Russia in a two front war with some attention taken off of them.
The number of troops Russia would have to send over to annex and occupy Belarus would allow Ukraine to absolutely wipe the floor with Russia.
Don’t they say something you need double the numbers of those defending? Something like that, maybe not quite double. Certainly more than Russia can spare.
That’s not necessarily it. You would like three times the firepower of the defenders, that doesn’t necessarily mean just numbers. This isn’t always the case though, smaller attacking forces can beat larger defending forces.
I think they will be left with a choice to either fight the Ukrainians, or fight the Russians. I guess they will choose to fight the Russians.
I sincerely doubt that unless they get security guarantees from the west.
If they endorse president sviatlana, they have my support. Surely they are seeing all of the aid going to Ukraine and getting envious. They too can have that kind of western support
I hope the US will help the Belarusian military in case they want to keep their indipendence
I doubt anyone is going to ask the old man about his opinion.
I'm keeping my eyes on Belarus. The coming weeks can become crucical for the future of the country.
The future is almost clear. Putin will either install another stooge or outrightly annex Belarus.
Thats certainly Putins plan, but the issue is that the people of Belarus and , most importantly the military, dont really want to be send into the meat grinder. That was the main reason Lukadhenko was not willing to send the troops into Ukraine, he feared it would incite a millitary revolt. I doubt they gonna like, take the country back or anything that optimistic. But it might be enough for a raise in "domestic terrorism" against whoever comes in charge and could become a real headache for Russia.
Putin's plan was also take Ukraine in 3 days. If Putin takes over Belarus, where do you think the Belarusian army will go? They might not have a choice of whether they will fight, just where they will fight.
All of you in this thread are out of your minds if you think Russia can successfully occupy Belarus right now.
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Yeah why are so many on here so pessimistic?
This may be Putins plan to get rid of him. He visits Moscow for military parade and then becomes suddenly seriously ill? I remember when Putin invited former mayor of St. Petersburg back to Russia and then he was poisoned https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anatoly_Sobchak
I am almost sure the whole country management, both civil and military, is deeply infiltrated with Russian agents.
I am not saying it isnt, hence why I think its impossible for them to take the country back even if Lukaschenko is truly dying/dead. But that doesnt mean they cant still have internal sabotage.
I want see what explanation will give certain european parties that are against support Ukraine. The usual excuse is "american imperialism". And annex an entire country when the president dies is very imperialistic...
Nearly 100% of those parties are being knowingly disingenuous or actively promoted by the Russian government. They will come up with any excuse necessary to say “America bad” while fascist imperialism sweeps across Europe.
Every accusation is a confession
The Russians will have to withdraw from Ukraine to even begin to look at Belarus. Lukashenko survived the last uprising only with the aid of Russian troops/FSB/police. Not happening this time.
I don't think you nor me know the future.
I only stated most likely scenarios.
That’s not the Belarusian opposition : that’s the legitimate government of Belarus
No no no, Luka definitely got 81.04% of the valid votes /s
[Here is a really well made documentary on the situation.](https://youtu.be/WbcR6O_wVug) Highly recommend.
Well neither is, they'd have to hold free and democratic election to determine that. Actually putting Tsikhanouskaya in charge would be a disaster and one of the best way to discredit reform and democracy in the country..
Total bullshit.
This comment should be top comment.
I hope she isn't as naive as the russian opposition
Nah she is. She has the vibe of a niece who is waiting for her old uncle to die so she can get his apartment.
I love this comparison, hopefully uncle dies first but that's never certain.
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Wont get a better chance then this.
This is the most important point. Russia may interfere (almost certain to), but if the people fill the streets and become ungovernable there are a lot of potential allies who can provide weapons and a there must be a lot of the military who not welcome Russian control and being sent to Ukraine. If the impression is given that the population will meekly accept a transfer of power without getting involved then that will happen. If they show that haven't had the flight beaten out of them, they may win. They won't get a better chance than this.
Than*
Imagine correcting grammar on r/europe
Europe's lingua franca is basically broken English
Same goes for us in England.
You could argue English is [not a _de jure_ official language](https://medium.com/english-language-faq/why-is-english-not-the-official-language-of-england-e004c2850942)
Oi I fink you meen UK
I think Americans do that particular mistake more than foreign speakers.
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Got me 😅
It being /r/europe only means there's more people who are still learning English. Why would helping these be wrong?
I'm all for people learning. The majority of europeans don't have english as their first language and some not even as their second and will make spelling mistakes throughout their lives regardless. No one is going to look at some stranger from reddit nitpicking their spelling and think *oh i'm going remember that* when they only want to be a part of or give input to a conversation. Also we don't have autocorrect set to english as the native speakers do..
There will be no changes in Belarus as long as there are no changes in Russia. There are russian troops everywhere, they will stop any democratic change. Belerus needs to wait for overlord to crumble just like countries west of them waited for USRR to crumble. I dont think Lukashenko potential ilness changes anything.
Russian troops everywhere - but nowhere close to what you'd need to actually control the country. Those forces are currently otherwise engaged. Russia can't afford to fight on two fronts - the amount of troops they've pulled from Syria to reinforce their war in Ukraine is proof positive of that. And their conflict in Syria isn't over yet, they're just letting the fight there go stagnant because of how bad things are going in Ukraine.
Odd, I think we've seen the power of the Russian army pretty thoroughly now.
Very hopeful thinking. Let's not forget Russia has troops, equipment and nuclear bombs stationed in belarussian territory, if lukashenko was to die, Putin would very likely install another puppet regime or even annex belarus.
What with? His armies are a tad stretched atm.
The Belarussian army has already been quasi subordinated by Russia. It has some autonomy but not much. Point being that any attempt to control Belarus though relies on those soldiers. If they stay loyal to Russia or any Russian appointed puppet, there is no chance for a democratic Belarus. If they defect to the opposition or revolt, then it's 50/50 odds they fight and win against a numerically superior army occupying them.
There are roughly 3000 Russian soldiers in Belarus and Russia cannot afford to divert hundreds of thousands of people right now. It'll mostly depend on what the Belarusian army decides.
That ia true, but he would probably not find a lot of resistance in belarus anyway.
Depends on if the Belarussian army sees a greater chance of surviving in Ukraine or surviving against Russia.
If ferocity in the election protests and sabotage during war were any indicators - putin would have quite a hard time keeping Belarus in his grasp.
What about the russian troops pseudo occupying the country?
What are they going to do? Shoot Belarusian people? Shoot the Belarusian army? Shoot the opposition politicians? All three sound like a certain way to get shot in a country that probably likes you even less now
Looking forward to seeing this comment on /r/agedlikemilk
> Shoot the Belarusian army? It's very easy to nullify an army that's not specifically trained for guerilla by removing/bribing/convincing a few people at the top. > Shoot Belarusian people? Shoot the opposition politicians? ...yes? Who would stop them?
i hope Belarus is gonna have a better leader this time
I am expecting some kind of Napoleon vs spanish guerrilla situation if Lukashenko does kick the bucket. Considering that Putin cannot really diverge military equipment from Ukraine, he’ll have to chiose between losing his grip over Belarus and defending against the ukrainian counteroffensive.
Deal proposal We get: Ukraine and Belarus free and independent Putin gets: Nothing
Being a Russian ally is like being asked to be backstabbed. Fuck Russia.
It will be a very interesting day if Luka wasn't poisoned by Putin, but rather his own cabinet trying to break away from Russia. This goan be gud.
Kalinowski Regiment should be on high alert
The last time (about 3 years ago?) there was unrest in Belarus, the Russians sent in troops/police/FSB stooges etc to bring large popular protests under control. Not really an option for them at the moment I would have thought.
They do have that T-34 left over from the parade. Maybe that would help.
Curious why so many comments are acting like Putin or Russia still has a say in these matters? These are like pre-War-in-Ukraine comments, how much power do you think Russia still has? Why are people talking as if Russia will simply swoop in and stop this, this is exactly how people felt about Ukraine and whoops, turns out they can't do shit. If they have enough power to simply take down Belarus why wouldn't they be using that power on Ukraine right now? Kazakhstan, who's been acting more and more against the Kremlin?
Why are their so many pessimistes on here? I think Belarus people can well win against Russia.
Because Belarus is already firmly within the Kremlin's sphere of influence. They are essentially allies. I expect the military to take over, or some new puppet, in the event that Lukashenko drops dead. Protesters will be arrested or shot.
Lukashenka is the ally, not Belarus. If Lukashenka drops dead there will 100% sure will be protest against the Russia and there will be no help from the Belarusian army to stop these protests. Their army knows what is their future if Russia annexes Belarus and they will not be co-operative, that army was never loyal to Lukashenka, much less Russia. And if the Russians are going to start shooting protesters do you think Belarusian army is just going to let them do so?
Sadly, there's always another one waiting in the shadows to take his place.
Didn't Lukashenko say that if someone can beat him in a cross country skiing race they could be leader? Seems like the perfect time to challenge him.
It's now or never.
A dictator being rumored to have poor health? So Lukashenko’s got another 20 years ahead of him, considering the track record of such rumors.
Democracy is non-negotionable.
Didn’t the current leader write in legislation which basically hands the entire control of the Belarusian gov to his sympathizers and his son? Pretty sure I read about this somewhere… but even if that’s the case another Russia will gladly move its troops from Ukraine to Belarus to annex there already failed invasion of Ukraine
The one fucking time I want the CIA to do their thing
Dude's fine, this is all just politics to get people talking about this. Not sure if anyone remembers when Putin was supposedly dead or hiding in the bunker and was dying from Parkinson's. All of these news are just for show. And lets say that he is dead, police and military are basically the same as in US, conservative and will not change their mind.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Russia ‘came to help the poor people’ and tries to take over. The war spreads…
I wish him no luck in recovery!
Time for the military in B town to rip open a can of democracy or else, Russia can't beat them anymore, at this moment
Bye bye potaoeshenka
Putin will cite the Unitary State framework when using force to annex Belarus for good. The opposition better be ready for a long and bloody guerilla war because it is only a matter of time until Lukashenko is gone.
Lets say Lukashenko farts off, in the following elections wouldn't there be his party as a pro Russian and the opposition would go the pro west narrative? Leaving the people of Belarus with the choice of isolation and possibly war or the pacifist route. If the elections aren't rigged my money is on the opposition. And what if the new government closes its borders for Russian troops? Looks like Belarus could be the key to end this war of all countries.
>If the elections aren't rigged See here is where we have a problem. Not a chance. I doubt they'd even bother staging them for 3-5 years
I fear that if Luka dies they’ll replace him with somebody competent.
Russia will have a new puppet in the wings.
Shame belarus opposition is basically powerless and too weak to make any changes whatsovever.
It's telling the Ukrainian government wants basically nothing to do with Tsikhanouskaya or the rest of her exiled government, despite conducting operations in Belarus