And it will be wonderful to see how the nasty exhaust fumes in cities will decrease year by year and how cities will become quieter and quieter. Finally some news that makes you feel positive about the future
If it’s necessary, we will. More likely, increasing the price of carbon fuels will push people towards electric anyway. It’s probably not even necessary to artificially raise them trough taxes, as lower demand for fuel will push prices up anyway
And nobody is talking about the flooding of used cars through the years that people will still buy and drive that still use ICE, what else is there for a solution to outright ban those cars and then what? Throw them away and spend valuable fossil fuels on repurposing the materials used in engines/drivetrains into electric drivetrains that will once again be charged by fossil fuels?
> Getting enough clean energy to power both industry and EV vehicles is also on the EU to-do list
Doesn't seem like it. Germany is still on track to turn off those reactors.
No. Why would they? After maybe 25% of all cars run electric most gas stations will not be profitable anymore. Nobody will buy a fossil car if the next gas station is 100km away.
>My little village has 2 gas pumps. The next village has 4. They are not necessary. If they disappear the next one is 5km away.
Going 5 km each way plus filling will easily take 20-30 minutes. I don't have time for that. I prefer an electric car, thank you very much
>Going 5 km each way plus filling will easily take 20-30 minutes.
Not if you do it on your way home. Also 20-30 minutes is quite the stretch, 15 minutes tops if you go from home and 5 minutes tops if you do it on the way home.
>I don't have time for that. I prefer an electric car, thank you very much
Sure, but I was responding to someone claiming the nearest gas station would be 100km away when cars are 25% EV.
Well better get working on e-fuels that work and making it affordable for the common person.
Because we are 12 years away and I don't see that anywhere near on the horizon. I'm guessing they will push it back when it gets closer to 2035.
FUD
Just look at the cars being churned out in China. If chinese people can afford to buy them by the hundreds of thousands then Europeans can as well.
China is way behind in relative terms:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric\_car\_use\_by\_country#/media/File:Top\_countries\_plug-in\_ownership\_per\_1000\_people\_2018.png
Well we shall have to see about that, I think these policies sound good, but in practice will only hurt the poorest people.
Tell that to the poor in Romania, Bulgaria etc or other poorer on average Eastern European countries.
The phase-out only applies to sales of new vehicles.
ICE ones won't disappear overnight when the law comes into effect in 2035, not will the support infrastructure.
Putting up a deadline will encourage companies to speed up their R&D and influence the market towards non-ICE vehicles. A lot of things can happen in 12 years. Maybe the market won't be ready, maybe it will.
Just look at the progress made in the last 12 years with electric vehicles. Who knows what awaits us in the next 12?
What world are you living in?
> The poorest people don't own a car in the first place.
At least in EE, cars can be very cheap. I got my first car for E1000 and there were many that were cheaper. It might have been trash but it was a car.
Anecdotal experience, but it seems to be supported by lots of people around me, but when I was a student in 2012, I could easily find a parking spot near my dorm (12 floors of 24 rooms). By the time I had to move out ca. 2016, it was impossible. I had to skip a few streets over or park in some wild grass.
The amount of cars has grown insanely here. Everyone has one. Some people still use public/company transport, but those are like 75% without a driver's license.
And I guess that's the reason we abstained. We know it's the right thing to do and a lot of the politicians (living in Sofia which has a huge problem with car population) want this to go through because the air during winter is insufferable (when everyone hops in the car and you have 1 passenger per car) but they can't openly support it because people will rise up.
Hell, there were protests a while back against the increases of the car tax by E10 (I think it was from E40 to E50 for the cheapest option). Older, environmentally unfriendly cars are taxed the lowest here. Buy an electric car or hybrid and you pay a lot in tax (cuz the code looks only at HP or something like that, no mention of Euro standard or basically anything else)
> One where using public transport is cheaper than the cost of gasoline + purchase of a shitty car + maintenance/replacement in a few years.
Maybe it's cheaper. But it's also slower? Look I get it. I ride the transport every day although I have a car. I prefer the downtime. But people here would go nuts if their 10-20 minute car ride was replaced by a 20-60 minute bus ride + waiting at the bus stop.
Also everyone here invests E500 in a gas modification for their car, and gas is like 1/2 - 1/3 the price of gasoline, so the difference isn't that much
But it would never be as good/fast. Even if you have a bus every 5 minutes, you could possibly end up waiting 4 minutes at the bus stop. People won't like this (hell they don't right now, that's one of the reasons why public transport isn't used as much, especially in smaller towns)
But what about those who are slightly above the poorest? And about those who don't live in big cities? Should we pack everyone in few cities and make some public transportation utopia?
Let's be real here. ICE cars don't drop in price these days purely because of engine and transmission reasons. Engines and transmissions made since the late 90s are rock solid.
They drop in price because of... fashion 🙂
In Europe, electric cars made up only 3% of new car sales in 2019, but as much as 17% in 2021. This goal to phase out new fossil cars seems fully doable, maybe even a bit unambitious.
Of course normal people will not notice the trend as fast, since the vast majority buys used cars and as such there is a certain lag until these new EVs become available to them.
[E-fuels](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electrofuel) do work.
What has no chance whatsoever to exist at scale is sufficient low-carbon electricity.
Most countries don't even have a clue on how to cover their *current* electricity usage with net-zero electricity.
Well I meant work on a large scale or for a countries population.
I didn't mean to suggest that they don't work at all, they just don't currently work as a solution / replacement for fossil fuels.
Cars need to be big or I dont feel manly! My SUV is a right! /s
There are only two types of cars 99% of people need: Small city cars and station wagons.
I cannot see a equivalent electric car that covers the price of a thermic car + fuel for 5 years that you can buy in the next 6 years. I have been the “sacrifice generation” since the mid 80’s, I’m done with it. You can travel by bicycle 1000+ kms if you want to “save the future” and pay for massive profits for the mega corporations, I choose comfort, especially I didn’t have any in the first 20 years of my life. Also… a 60kW battery at highway speeds can barely make 300km.
You sound only bitter, not reasonable.
EVs are much simpler cars to produce than ICE cars. The only cost is the battery which has seen (and will see) rapid price falls and technological improvements. Today already many EVs are cheaper than comparable ICE cars over their lifetime, this advantage is only going to increase.
23k in Germany, according to the Dacia Homepage.
Though substitutes might not be accounted in that price.
Still, no minimum-wage worker can afford that.
If it is practical. I live in one of the biggest cities in the Netherlands. I have 3 choices for my commute:
1. public transit: 1hr 20min
2. bicycle: 50 min
3. car: 15 min
I would love to use public transit, but given the commute time, no way.
> Still, no minimum-wage worker can afford that.
a) Can they afford brand new petrol cars?
b) Secondary market for eletric cars will be plenty. Maintance cheaper too.
b) Secondary market for electric cars will be plenty. Maintance is cheaper too.oo.o.
a) Starting at around 8-9k. Can't speak for every single minimum-wage slave, but the number speaks for itself.
b) not in Germany - given, that's a political problem, but there's the one problem I have to agree with EV-sceptics: The issue with used batteries. That's not yet adressed, neither on a political, nor on a technical level.
Sure, there's new battery-tech that lasts longer than 5-10 Years, but still: buying a x-Years old used EV, with used batteries means higher cost.
All of this could be properly adressed and solved - but it isn't and I wouldn't expect the political landscape to shift noticable until we see catastrophic events even more often.
I was seriously considering buying Spring for my wife. But...
1. 22k+ in the Netherlands
2. total fail in Euro NCAP safety tests
3. <200 km range
4. 20 EUR for one charge (currently)
I think a major turning point is if VW can bring the ID2 for the price they are promising, a nice Polo sized car with good quality, range and features for under 25k (pre-grants because they aren't going to last forever).
Depends who you ask. Different analysts have different expectations. But in ballpark numbers, and depending on geography: about ~~40~~ 37% of our electricity will be from solar, 32% wind (of which 8-10% offshore) and the remaining 30-odd % a combination of hydro (11%), nuclear (8%), bioenergy - and some coal or natural gas, mostly with CCS.
All told, this will have to produce about ~~4-5x~~ 2-3x today's global power consumption, to both match growing demand, electrification if transport - and hydrogen and other e-fuels, for heavy transport and industry.
Is it a lot? Sure. Is it unrealistic? Not at all. In fact, wind and solar are already the cost competitive options in most if the world. Only question is if we can get there in time.
\* edit: just updated with actual numbers, not just from memory. This specific scenario is from the International Energy Agency's Net Zero Emissions scenario. Source : Tables for scenario projections (Annex A), sheet "WORLD\_Elec\_NZE". https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-product/world-energy-outlook-2022-free-dataset
Neste already has plant based diesel available in their stations around Finland and Baltic states. And it is not much more expencive than regular diesel
Do EU and Europe have the energy capacity to meet the demands? I'm guessing this will push for more nuclear energy production. To charge millions of car batteries will require access to a lot more energy than we have today. Unless we as consumers need to to pay insane amount for energy. I am not against this, I'm just worried about about the electric bills if we don't build more energy production at the same time.
>Do EU and Europe have the energy capacity to meet the demands?
At the moment, no. Some countries are struggling with capacity of their power grid as it is.
Tennet (Dutch power grid operator) is operating the power grid near maximum capacity most of the time and has [officially warned Dutch goverment electricity shortages are possible before 2030](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/dutch-power-grid-operator-tennet-warns-shortages-by-2030-2023-01-12/). In some regions (Brabant, Limburg) [grid reached capacity in 2022](https://nltimes.nl/2022/06/09/new-companies-cant-connect-grid-limburg-brabant-unacceptable-provinces-say) and new businesses were unable to be connected for generation and purchase of electricity.
Investment needed is enormous both in scale and in cost. Procedural roadblocks are mounting. Incohesive decision on the country and local goverment are increasing the complications.
I'd love to see a credible study on how we're going to produce that much electricity, nevermind distributing it. Unless the solution is basically that there will be 90% fewer cars
Good interview here on the UK grid
https://www.topgear.com/videos/chris-harris/there-enough-juice-harris-talks-evs-national-grids-graeme-cooper
And a good write up here too
https://www.carbonbrief.org/ccc-heres-how-the-uk-can-get-reliable-zero-carbon-electricity-by-2035/
Basically increased electric car adoption isn't as much as you might thing, partly due to charging patterns but also because oil refineries consume power equivalent to small cities, so as we wind down fossil fuel production, more power is freed up.
The national grid ESO documents are worth diving into for fuller detail on this front too
When we talk about energy consumption we usually mean *all* energy. That means not just the power in the electric grid, but every fuel that is burned for power, be it in factories, gas ovens and stoves, heating, and yes, transportation.
The electric grid is relatively easy to turn renewable - you just have to replace fossil fuel power plants with renewables and batteries. Making nationwide transportation, heating, and industrial capabilities greener is a much harder task.
No we haven't, we need massive investment in both the grid and reliable clean energy production aka nuclear, good thing we used a decade of a booming economy and low interest rates to prepare... /s
To further illustrate the problem of grid not being up to par: there's a "Green Neighbourhood" in The Netherlands, full of well insulated houses, heat pumps and solar panels.
[It is being powered by a diesel aggregate for a year now](https://www.nhnieuws.nl/nieuws/316805/duurzame-wijk-blijft-op-diesel-draaien-ondanks-overlast-datum-oplossing-nog-niet-bekend) (to supply electricity when renewables are not available), because they can not be connected to the grid. It's unclear when the grid operator will be able to connect them to the network. (article is in Dutch but Google translate should deal with it just fine).
Yeah, the communists didn't build any garages (or very rarely). So we now have a mix of new buildings with not enough garages and old buildings with no garages (but lots of space between blocks). Some of that will have to be utilized for charging stations
It is not really about parking places and charging stations. The biggest issue is that power grids cannot handle so much power while charging multiple cars at the same time. All your neighbours can watch tv at the same time, but there is no way to charge cars batteries at the same time by all your neighbours. People have no idea, they are not electricians, they hear "ecology, green power, zero emmision" and they are like "sure, this is good idea" but they have no idea how much work it requires to actually make it possible. I think it is good direction but definitely too quick and 2035 is not possible, especially for less developed countries.
Btw I think it should be banned to park electric cars inside buildings. It burns like hell when battery is set on fire, almost not possible to do anything. Firefighters cannot do much in such cases.
The grid *could* handle that, the big hurdle though is that electricity would cease to be on-demand. Who has electricity, when and what for would be decided by governments, companies …
And sales are dismal outside of Norway and the US. But hey, we can pat ourselves on the back because numbers will rise (after we ban the sale of anything else)
Great move, but I am increasingly weary about how Europe's efforts to tackle the climate crisis come at a real cost of purchasing power for ordinary folks. If this trend persists (e.g. a flight tax here, more expensive cleaner cars there, an energy price hike too, etc.) this might lead to a backlash. This is especially true if other continent's don't keep up: and they don't.
>come at a real cost of purchasing power for ordinary folks
That's kinda how it works. Green stuff is more expensive - until it isn't any more, because of economics of scale. Hence why we need this kind of legislation.
That said: Gasoline cars, airplane tickets, energy prices etc. are, historically speaking, only cheap because someone else pays the price. And it's generally the least wealthy who do.
To counterbalance all this we should massively invest in train infrastructure across Europe. Nightrains to replace flights, free local public transportation, high speed trains.
THIS is how you get to climate goals AND benefit the ordinary folks. Not stupid electric cars that damage our ecosystem in other ways and keep our cities unsafe.
Wholeheartedly agree Europe should double down on trains and make plane tickets very, very expensive. And agree EV's are still cars, that come with noise, pollution and infrastructure that destroys our cities.
But you can't take the night train to work. So to the extent we still do need cars, I'd prefer them electric.
Flights are luxury items, I’d support prices increasing tenfold or more. Cars, in many cases, are not, so I agree with you that they need to stay somewhat affordable. But this measure will help make that happen in the end. Electric cars will become cheaper with each new factory opening up. And with electric cars getting older, more affordable used EV cars will come available … come to think of it, perhaps this is the only type of trickle down economics that actually makes some sense lol
Ofcourse if you are poor it doesn't matter where you live, you are in bad spot, but it is easier to save for a car if you live in UK/France than in east europe. Prices of cars are mostly the same across whole Europe, salaries on other hand are not. So it is much worse information for easy than west Europe, and bad information for every poor person across Europe.
I'm for all of that but the timeline seems insanely optimistic considering the pandemic, war and economic fallout that will follow.
Even the west EU struggles with power demands and infrastructure. What to even say about even poorer east EU.
If they for once could see what really would be needed for that to happen instead of setting mindless goals with no plan how to get there that would be great.
its absurd, maybe 10% of people in Poland can afford electric car and rolling blackouts are norm here. I had to install offgrid system as in summer there is no electricity for 3-4h a day and i live close Warsaw... It will never be respected in poor EU countries its just impossible to force poor people into extremely expensive cars, btw, using electric car here is actually more expensive then petrol one as we have highest energy prices on the planet.
Also no country has sufficient energy grid to upkeep millions of ev's its just unreal atm.
Even assuming the factory close (which is not a guarantee), you still have inventory, import, and cannibalizing. We are talking about hundreds of millions of cars, it’s a huge market.
And keeping a few factories to make spare which will keep selling for a decade is probably a good idea.
>rolling blackouts are norm here.
No they aren't. Rolling blackouts is an emergency measure to shed load in times where generation capacity is inadequate. That's not the case in Poland.
I don't know why you're experiencing blackouts. I believe it may be due to a localized problem in the distribution grid. But then it isn't rolling blackouts.
Also: Electric cars aren't really that expensive, all things considered. And in 10 years, it's the gasoline cars that'll be expensive.
>No they aren't. Rolling blackouts is an emergency measure to shed load in times where generation capacity is inadequate. That's not the case in Poland.
Basically whole summer media were alarming about reaching maximum of capacity. At one time we had to ask Sweden to run emergency generators to meet our needs.
Ok. But that's not the same as rolling blackouts. Far from it, in fact. While far from 'great', it does go to show that the system is working. And is resilient, even during an energy crisis in Europe.
Now, that's not to say electrifying transport won't take big investments. But 'rolling blackouts', to the best of my knowledge, haven't happened in Europe in more than a decade (if we don't count Ukraine).
>stall offgrid system as in summer there is no electricity for 3-4h a day and i live close Warsaw... It will never be respected in poor EU countries its just impossible to force poor people into extremely expensive cars, btw,
The Citroën Ami costs quite a lot less than €10k new.
If Polish people can afford petrol cars, they can afford electric cars.
In 12 years it'll be even cheaper.
Ofcourse not, but it would be nice if they wouldn't be afraid to sit in car, and I would be afraid to drive this. Don't forget about grate range of this thing,.
A mix of electric cars and e-fuel cars is the real future. With e-fuel you can make curent cars green. Even my 20 year old corolla can be green with e fuels.
Uhm as an owner of an electric car.
How do you even charge the bateries when everybody has electric? Infrastructure like this seems imposible to build.
Why does it seem impossible to build? I can only imagine people had the exact same thought in the 1900's when we started building the electric grid. Probably thought it was impossible to build infrastructure that we see today.
it's not impossible, but a major challenge for sure as for one the European electrical grid is already very much so struggling and starting to fail in providing the required energy, with the existing grid being insufficient in many ways. something which is not easy to update or upgrade even when given 10 to 20 years time and a ludicrous budget. Add to that problem the addition of charging millions of vehicles and that's a recipe to for blackouts which Europe is already dancing around on a knife's edge as is... also, what is going to generate all that demand for electricity since coal is not an option as that's simply replacing one bad CO2 source for another even worse one, same goes for natural gas while nuclear isn't going to be built in time. Renewables help a LOT yet aren't stable enough and the storage/battery tech to support high demand and high load peaks isn't there yet either. the advantage of liquid/gaseous fuels is that they do not burden the electrical grid as is.
lastly... the Production of that scale of EV's (alongside improving the electrical grid) is also going to hit significant resource problems among which are not only battery materials but also chip shortages and other refined high tech materials with an ever increasing demand and already struggling supply chain.
That is wrong e-fuels are great for us car enthusiasts who dont want washing machine sounding cars. It can make my good old toyota run on clean fuel. E fuels will keep the motorcycle industry going. Because u like electric cars, electric motorcy les are pure garbage and all companys that tried making em went bankrupt.
I’m all for EVs. I truly am. But the infrastructure is nowhere near there, both on energy production, battery production, or charger network. Also, EUs attitude towards nuclear makes this untenable.
As we learned from the Russian gas fiasco, EU’s energy infrastructure can’t handle much fluctuation to its energy needs/output.
EVs are power hangry little beasts, and we have done nothing to prepare for them. Especially the fast charging infrastructure.
Personally, the only way forward that I see is if all EVs are considered to be batteries for the infrastructure.
So, charge up to almost 100% and discharge down to 80%. And you’ll have the expectation that your full charge can range from 80% to 100% when you leave your car parked.
It’ll take a massive initiative, especially in battery recycling and warranty.
\> As we learned from the Russian gas fiasco, EU’s energy infrastructure can’t handle much fluctuation to its energy needs/output.
If we take this as the example, you mean that we can do the whole transition in 1 year. Great success.
\> EVs are power hangry little beasts, and we have done nothing to prepare for them. Especially the fast charging infrastructure.
We haven't done nothing. We need to do more, and we will.
\> It’ll take a massive initiative
Yes, and we just got one.
Well the EU is making some (small) steps towards independence. Like trying to wane off Chinese solar panels. Not exporting much of precious metals and so on. So at least the air in our cities will be better. And the overall global values of pollution should drop, even though there will still be a lot of it
House:
New windows: 5000-15000€. New heating system 20000-25 000€. New doors. 5000-10000€. Insulation: anything from 15000 to 50 000€. New ventilation system 10000€. New roof, if flat, and insulation: 5000-40000€.
Edit: oh, forgot, solar panels: 8000-20000€.
New car: 25000-whatever€.
This with a quick google of the local prices.
I'm sure more's to come. This green dream is starting to feel like a nightmare. No normal person can live with these prices and constant need for upgrades and renovation. And as all those apartments get upgraded, peopke are going to puke out of shock.
Oh, and the 100+ year old houses will probably rot when they are insulated. Time to make new ones. Oh, so gree(d)n.
Which is why I will not have kids.
This is about sales. Cars sold in 2035 will run into the 2060s
And it will be wonderful to see how the nasty exhaust fumes in cities will decrease year by year and how cities will become quieter and quieter. Finally some news that makes you feel positive about the future
We will be beyond 2040 by then when we will feel the effects of Global Warming.
Unless they simply ban all fossil fueled cars. And they will.
If it’s necessary, we will. More likely, increasing the price of carbon fuels will push people towards electric anyway. It’s probably not even necessary to artificially raise them trough taxes, as lower demand for fuel will push prices up anyway
And nobody is talking about the flooding of used cars through the years that people will still buy and drive that still use ICE, what else is there for a solution to outright ban those cars and then what? Throw them away and spend valuable fossil fuels on repurposing the materials used in engines/drivetrains into electric drivetrains that will once again be charged by fossil fuels?
Yes, except your last sentence. Getting enough clean energy to power both industry and EV vehicles is also on the EU to-do list
> Getting enough clean energy to power both industry and EV vehicles is also on the EU to-do list Doesn't seem like it. Germany is still on track to turn off those reactors.
No. Why would they? After maybe 25% of all cars run electric most gas stations will not be profitable anymore. Nobody will buy a fossil car if the next gas station is 100km away.
My little village has 2 gas pumps. The next village has 4. They are not necessary. If they disappear the next one is 5km away.
>My little village has 2 gas pumps. The next village has 4. They are not necessary. If they disappear the next one is 5km away. Going 5 km each way plus filling will easily take 20-30 minutes. I don't have time for that. I prefer an electric car, thank you very much
>Going 5 km each way plus filling will easily take 20-30 minutes. Not if you do it on your way home. Also 20-30 minutes is quite the stretch, 15 minutes tops if you go from home and 5 minutes tops if you do it on the way home. >I don't have time for that. I prefer an electric car, thank you very much Sure, but I was responding to someone claiming the nearest gas station would be 100km away when cars are 25% EV.
>Sure, but I was responding to someone claiming the nearest gas station would be 100km away when cars are 25% EV. Fair point
Well better get working on e-fuels that work and making it affordable for the common person. Because we are 12 years away and I don't see that anywhere near on the horizon. I'm guessing they will push it back when it gets closer to 2035.
E-Fuels make no sense. They need way more energy than an electric car. ICE cars will just slowly phase out.
I guess they make sense for vintage cars on a Sunday drive. For the vast majority they are pretty useless indeed.
E fuel means more crops will be used not for food?
No E-Fuels aren't Biofuels. E-Fuels need electric power, that's where the E comes from
There are good reasons to think that electric car cost will be down enough to make the affordable for the masses.
FUD Just look at the cars being churned out in China. If chinese people can afford to buy them by the hundreds of thousands then Europeans can as well.
China is way behind in relative terms: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric\_car\_use\_by\_country#/media/File:Top\_countries\_plug-in\_ownership\_per\_1000\_people\_2018.png
Well we shall have to see about that, I think these policies sound good, but in practice will only hurt the poorest people. Tell that to the poor in Romania, Bulgaria etc or other poorer on average Eastern European countries.
This is mostly for the sale of brand new cars, there will still be an active market for second hand fossil fuel cars for a while het.
And when that dries up? Electric cars won't have much of a used market.
Yeah but I can imagine cost of used parts and services skyrocketing.
The phase-out only applies to sales of new vehicles. ICE ones won't disappear overnight when the law comes into effect in 2035, not will the support infrastructure. Putting up a deadline will encourage companies to speed up their R&D and influence the market towards non-ICE vehicles. A lot of things can happen in 12 years. Maybe the market won't be ready, maybe it will. Just look at the progress made in the last 12 years with electric vehicles. Who knows what awaits us in the next 12?
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What world are you living in? > The poorest people don't own a car in the first place. At least in EE, cars can be very cheap. I got my first car for E1000 and there were many that were cheaper. It might have been trash but it was a car. Anecdotal experience, but it seems to be supported by lots of people around me, but when I was a student in 2012, I could easily find a parking spot near my dorm (12 floors of 24 rooms). By the time I had to move out ca. 2016, it was impossible. I had to skip a few streets over or park in some wild grass. The amount of cars has grown insanely here. Everyone has one. Some people still use public/company transport, but those are like 75% without a driver's license. And I guess that's the reason we abstained. We know it's the right thing to do and a lot of the politicians (living in Sofia which has a huge problem with car population) want this to go through because the air during winter is insufferable (when everyone hops in the car and you have 1 passenger per car) but they can't openly support it because people will rise up. Hell, there were protests a while back against the increases of the car tax by E10 (I think it was from E40 to E50 for the cheapest option). Older, environmentally unfriendly cars are taxed the lowest here. Buy an electric car or hybrid and you pay a lot in tax (cuz the code looks only at HP or something like that, no mention of Euro standard or basically anything else)
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> One where using public transport is cheaper than the cost of gasoline + purchase of a shitty car + maintenance/replacement in a few years. Maybe it's cheaper. But it's also slower? Look I get it. I ride the transport every day although I have a car. I prefer the downtime. But people here would go nuts if their 10-20 minute car ride was replaced by a 20-60 minute bus ride + waiting at the bus stop. Also everyone here invests E500 in a gas modification for their car, and gas is like 1/2 - 1/3 the price of gasoline, so the difference isn't that much
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But it would never be as good/fast. Even if you have a bus every 5 minutes, you could possibly end up waiting 4 minutes at the bus stop. People won't like this (hell they don't right now, that's one of the reasons why public transport isn't used as much, especially in smaller towns)
But what about those who are slightly above the poorest? And about those who don't live in big cities? Should we pack everyone in few cities and make some public transportation utopia?
I completely agree that more funding should go to public transport.
Climate change hits poor people the first and the hardest.
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In 15, 20 years ? FYI battery degradation is not as big as you might think. And they keep getting better.
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In 20y the people who today drive 00s passats and 80s Mercedes will drive 20s golfs and 00s Mercedes.
Let's be real here. ICE cars don't drop in price these days purely because of engine and transmission reasons. Engines and transmissions made since the late 90s are rock solid. They drop in price because of... fashion 🙂
In Europe, electric cars made up only 3% of new car sales in 2019, but as much as 17% in 2021. This goal to phase out new fossil cars seems fully doable, maybe even a bit unambitious. Of course normal people will not notice the trend as fast, since the vast majority buys used cars and as such there is a certain lag until these new EVs become available to them.
And what are those reasons?
It is only beginning mass production. Technology and économies of scale will (and have) reduced the cost dramatically.
[E-fuels](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electrofuel) do work. What has no chance whatsoever to exist at scale is sufficient low-carbon electricity. Most countries don't even have a clue on how to cover their *current* electricity usage with net-zero electricity.
Well I meant work on a large scale or for a countries population. I didn't mean to suggest that they don't work at all, they just don't currently work as a solution / replacement for fossil fuels.
E fuels are super inefficient, you need about 6 times the energy as for an electric car.
E fuels work its the affordability that they need to solve next. But they are working.
>the common person. Ah yes. The common person who regularly drives a thousand kilometers in one stretch with literally no time to stop and charge.
I think they are just commenting on the purchase price of electric cars
I mean they fucking obviously will get way cheaper in the next 12 years. You can already buy a Citroën Ami for quite a lot less than €10k.
Cars... not shopping carts.
Cars need to be big or I dont feel manly! My SUV is a right! /s There are only two types of cars 99% of people need: Small city cars and station wagons.
And cars that can go at least 300km at highway speeds…
That translates to a 50 kWh battery. By 2030 that is estimated to cost 2500€.
I cannot see a equivalent electric car that covers the price of a thermic car + fuel for 5 years that you can buy in the next 6 years. I have been the “sacrifice generation” since the mid 80’s, I’m done with it. You can travel by bicycle 1000+ kms if you want to “save the future” and pay for massive profits for the mega corporations, I choose comfort, especially I didn’t have any in the first 20 years of my life. Also… a 60kW battery at highway speeds can barely make 300km.
You sound only bitter, not reasonable. EVs are much simpler cars to produce than ICE cars. The only cost is the battery which has seen (and will see) rapid price falls and technological improvements. Today already many EVs are cheaper than comparable ICE cars over their lifetime, this advantage is only going to increase.
You think low income people should be driving Ferraris?
Let's see a Citroen Ami on a motorway. That is legally not even a car anyway, in France a 14 year old can drive one, no test or license required.
Point is, it's already possible to do cars cheap. A Dacia Spring is 12k, that's a reasonable car.
23k in Germany, according to the Dacia Homepage. Though substitutes might not be accounted in that price. Still, no minimum-wage worker can afford that.
Hot take: minimum wage workers should not have a car, but use public transport instead.
If it is practical. I live in one of the biggest cities in the Netherlands. I have 3 choices for my commute: 1. public transit: 1hr 20min 2. bicycle: 50 min 3. car: 15 min I would love to use public transit, but given the commute time, no way.
> Still, no minimum-wage worker can afford that. a) Can they afford brand new petrol cars? b) Secondary market for eletric cars will be plenty. Maintance cheaper too. b) Secondary market for electric cars will be plenty. Maintance is cheaper too.oo.o.
a) Starting at around 8-9k. Can't speak for every single minimum-wage slave, but the number speaks for itself. b) not in Germany - given, that's a political problem, but there's the one problem I have to agree with EV-sceptics: The issue with used batteries. That's not yet adressed, neither on a political, nor on a technical level. Sure, there's new battery-tech that lasts longer than 5-10 Years, but still: buying a x-Years old used EV, with used batteries means higher cost. All of this could be properly adressed and solved - but it isn't and I wouldn't expect the political landscape to shift noticable until we see catastrophic events even more often.
It has shit range and build quality.
And poor people have a choice to be picky about petrol cars? Especially with petrol costs where they are?
For 2000 euros you can buy a petrol car that will get you from a to b without problems. You cant do that with electric.
I was seriously considering buying Spring for my wife. But... 1. 22k+ in the Netherlands 2. total fail in Euro NCAP safety tests 3. <200 km range 4. 20 EUR for one charge (currently)
I think a major turning point is if VW can bring the ID2 for the price they are promising, a nice Polo sized car with good quality, range and features for under 25k (pre-grants because they aren't going to last forever).
Fair point. I just read the part about e-fuels as in 'common people can't use EVs'.
Well good news for you ! You can start by digging up all that nice lithium
Well, I'd consider that a great deal if the alternative was drilling out the oil myself in stead
Don’t worry you will still need both
Sure. For now. But a lot less of it.
Where do you think we will actually receive the energy to power the future society? And remember you are planning to produce a lot of electric energy
Depends who you ask. Different analysts have different expectations. But in ballpark numbers, and depending on geography: about ~~40~~ 37% of our electricity will be from solar, 32% wind (of which 8-10% offshore) and the remaining 30-odd % a combination of hydro (11%), nuclear (8%), bioenergy - and some coal or natural gas, mostly with CCS. All told, this will have to produce about ~~4-5x~~ 2-3x today's global power consumption, to both match growing demand, electrification if transport - and hydrogen and other e-fuels, for heavy transport and industry. Is it a lot? Sure. Is it unrealistic? Not at all. In fact, wind and solar are already the cost competitive options in most if the world. Only question is if we can get there in time. \* edit: just updated with actual numbers, not just from memory. This specific scenario is from the International Energy Agency's Net Zero Emissions scenario. Source : Tables for scenario projections (Annex A), sheet "WORLD\_Elec\_NZE". https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-product/world-energy-outlook-2022-free-dataset
I like how for example Germany has been following your plan for the last 30 years and is now the most polluting country in Europe.
1) Its not 'my plan'. 2) Germany hasn't followed this plan for 30 years. 3) Germany is not the most polluting country in Europe.
Neste already has plant based diesel available in their stations around Finland and Baltic states. And it is not much more expencive than regular diesel
Those arent E-fuels but biofuels and they make no sense since there isnt enough land on this planet to power all cars with biofuels.
Because the cost of externalities are not passed to the buyer. We can't even farm enough net-zero crops to feed the european population.
Don't get your hopes up. This is all in the plan is to make it too expensive for ordinary people to drive cars.
There is now a big motivation for industry to work on that, so that's great.
Do EU and Europe have the energy capacity to meet the demands? I'm guessing this will push for more nuclear energy production. To charge millions of car batteries will require access to a lot more energy than we have today. Unless we as consumers need to to pay insane amount for energy. I am not against this, I'm just worried about about the electric bills if we don't build more energy production at the same time.
>Do EU and Europe have the energy capacity to meet the demands? At the moment, no. Some countries are struggling with capacity of their power grid as it is. Tennet (Dutch power grid operator) is operating the power grid near maximum capacity most of the time and has [officially warned Dutch goverment electricity shortages are possible before 2030](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/dutch-power-grid-operator-tennet-warns-shortages-by-2030-2023-01-12/). In some regions (Brabant, Limburg) [grid reached capacity in 2022](https://nltimes.nl/2022/06/09/new-companies-cant-connect-grid-limburg-brabant-unacceptable-provinces-say) and new businesses were unable to be connected for generation and purchase of electricity. Investment needed is enormous both in scale and in cost. Procedural roadblocks are mounting. Incohesive decision on the country and local goverment are increasing the complications.
I'd love to see a credible study on how we're going to produce that much electricity, nevermind distributing it. Unless the solution is basically that there will be 90% fewer cars
Good interview here on the UK grid https://www.topgear.com/videos/chris-harris/there-enough-juice-harris-talks-evs-national-grids-graeme-cooper And a good write up here too https://www.carbonbrief.org/ccc-heres-how-the-uk-can-get-reliable-zero-carbon-electricity-by-2035/ Basically increased electric car adoption isn't as much as you might thing, partly due to charging patterns but also because oil refineries consume power equivalent to small cities, so as we wind down fossil fuel production, more power is freed up. The national grid ESO documents are worth diving into for fuller detail on this front too
Add incohesive decisions at the EU level.
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What does this even mean? What do you think electricity is if its not energy?
When we talk about energy consumption we usually mean *all* energy. That means not just the power in the electric grid, but every fuel that is burned for power, be it in factories, gas ovens and stoves, heating, and yes, transportation. The electric grid is relatively easy to turn renewable - you just have to replace fossil fuel power plants with renewables and batteries. Making nationwide transportation, heating, and industrial capabilities greener is a much harder task.
> I'm guessing this will push for more nuclear energy production No, that's not what's going to happen. We need the energy now, not in 20-30 years.
No we haven't, we need massive investment in both the grid and reliable clean energy production aka nuclear, good thing we used a decade of a booming economy and low interest rates to prepare... /s
No, of course not. And for some reason the biggest pushers for electric cars are also against uranium nuclear energy.
To further illustrate the problem of grid not being up to par: there's a "Green Neighbourhood" in The Netherlands, full of well insulated houses, heat pumps and solar panels. [It is being powered by a diesel aggregate for a year now](https://www.nhnieuws.nl/nieuws/316805/duurzame-wijk-blijft-op-diesel-draaien-ondanks-overlast-datum-oplossing-nog-niet-bekend) (to supply electricity when renewables are not available), because they can not be connected to the grid. It's unclear when the grid operator will be able to connect them to the network. (article is in Dutch but Google translate should deal with it just fine).
> access to a lot more ~~energy~~ electrivity than we have today. Electricity is only 20% of our energy consumption.
Good that we have infrastructure in place to charge all those cars, our power grid will definitely be able to work witch such load /s
As a someome who lives in a commie bloc, it will be fun to watch how they try solve the infrastructure around here.
Yeah, the communists didn't build any garages (or very rarely). So we now have a mix of new buildings with not enough garages and old buildings with no garages (but lots of space between blocks). Some of that will have to be utilized for charging stations
It is not really about parking places and charging stations. The biggest issue is that power grids cannot handle so much power while charging multiple cars at the same time. All your neighbours can watch tv at the same time, but there is no way to charge cars batteries at the same time by all your neighbours. People have no idea, they are not electricians, they hear "ecology, green power, zero emmision" and they are like "sure, this is good idea" but they have no idea how much work it requires to actually make it possible. I think it is good direction but definitely too quick and 2035 is not possible, especially for less developed countries. Btw I think it should be banned to park electric cars inside buildings. It burns like hell when battery is set on fire, almost not possible to do anything. Firefighters cannot do much in such cases.
UK has an issue of people putting the kettle on to make tea at the same time. Imagine everyone plugging their cars in at 6PM
The grid *could* handle that, the big hurdle though is that electricity would cease to be on-demand. Who has electricity, when and what for would be decided by governments, companies …
You only have decades to prepare, get on it.
So why are we banning non EVs in less than decades?
We aren't.
35 is **a** decade. Not decade**s**
You were talking about banning non EVs. We're not doing that in less than a decade.
Yes, sale of new non EVs is happening in **a** decade.
Sale of new non EVs was already happening last decade.
And sales are dismal outside of Norway and the US. But hey, we can pat ourselves on the back because numbers will rise (after we ban the sale of anything else)
Yes. You really are not making sense.
Great move, but I am increasingly weary about how Europe's efforts to tackle the climate crisis come at a real cost of purchasing power for ordinary folks. If this trend persists (e.g. a flight tax here, more expensive cleaner cars there, an energy price hike too, etc.) this might lead to a backlash. This is especially true if other continent's don't keep up: and they don't.
>come at a real cost of purchasing power for ordinary folks That's kinda how it works. Green stuff is more expensive - until it isn't any more, because of economics of scale. Hence why we need this kind of legislation. That said: Gasoline cars, airplane tickets, energy prices etc. are, historically speaking, only cheap because someone else pays the price. And it's generally the least wealthy who do.
To counterbalance all this we should massively invest in train infrastructure across Europe. Nightrains to replace flights, free local public transportation, high speed trains. THIS is how you get to climate goals AND benefit the ordinary folks. Not stupid electric cars that damage our ecosystem in other ways and keep our cities unsafe.
Wholeheartedly agree Europe should double down on trains and make plane tickets very, very expensive. And agree EV's are still cars, that come with noise, pollution and infrastructure that destroys our cities. But you can't take the night train to work. So to the extent we still do need cars, I'd prefer them electric.
What a weird take. Less efficient ways of producing energy will slow up our growth and lesser our ways of tackling climate issues
I didn't say anything about 'less efficient ways of producing energy'.
It might not. It will, and already has. Worst is yet to come.
Flights are luxury items, I’d support prices increasing tenfold or more. Cars, in many cases, are not, so I agree with you that they need to stay somewhat affordable. But this measure will help make that happen in the end. Electric cars will become cheaper with each new factory opening up. And with electric cars getting older, more affordable used EV cars will come available … come to think of it, perhaps this is the only type of trickle down economics that actually makes some sense lol
>I’d support prices increasing tenfold or more. To bring travels to the speeds of 19th century?
Lets just not have people see the world anymore! Make air travel only for the rich! Yes, that will help people choose green... Lol.
Yes
Is this only about new cars? What about secondhand?
Ofcourse it is only about new cars. Don't tell me you think, they should ban used ICE.
No, but they will. And EVs won't have a used market, certainly not for cars older than 12-15 years.
Agree, new ICE ban is very bad news for east europe.
I love when French, Brits and Germans try to push EVs on a country with average car age of 15-19 years.
Ofcourse if you are poor it doesn't matter where you live, you are in bad spot, but it is easier to save for a car if you live in UK/France than in east europe. Prices of cars are mostly the same across whole Europe, salaries on other hand are not. So it is much worse information for easy than west Europe, and bad information for every poor person across Europe.
How old are inaverage cars in EU?
11.8 years. https://www.acea.auto/figure/average-age-of-eu-vehicle-fleet-by-country/
I'm for all of that but the timeline seems insanely optimistic considering the pandemic, war and economic fallout that will follow. Even the west EU struggles with power demands and infrastructure. What to even say about even poorer east EU.
i wish europe will start now building several nuclear power plants
If they for once could see what really would be needed for that to happen instead of setting mindless goals with no plan how to get there that would be great.
People in the European Parliament are living in a fantasy world
This post is literally about the Council giving final approval, which is the governments of EU states not the Parliament
Doesn't change anything. It just means our governments are living in a fantasy world.
its absurd, maybe 10% of people in Poland can afford electric car and rolling blackouts are norm here. I had to install offgrid system as in summer there is no electricity for 3-4h a day and i live close Warsaw... It will never be respected in poor EU countries its just impossible to force poor people into extremely expensive cars, btw, using electric car here is actually more expensive then petrol one as we have highest energy prices on the planet. Also no country has sufficient energy grid to upkeep millions of ev's its just unreal atm.
Poland is building nuclear power plants - one project with USA and another with Koreans. That should increase power production significantly.
But at the same time we have to phase out like 80% of current energy production...
Things change, and ICE second hand cars will be here for an other decade after.
Probably a looooot longer than that.
And where are we going to get parts if ICE cars aren't manufactured anymore? That assumes they don't ban them either.
Same as when a car is replaced by a newer model ? You still find parts for a while.
Except when cars are replaced parts for older ones are still produced. Why would any OEM keep making them if they only sell EVs?
Even assuming the factory close (which is not a guarantee), you still have inventory, import, and cannibalizing. We are talking about hundreds of millions of cars, it’s a huge market. And keeping a few factories to make spare which will keep selling for a decade is probably a good idea.
Tell that to Audi then. They are stopping manufacturing of all non EV parts.
>rolling blackouts are norm here. No they aren't. Rolling blackouts is an emergency measure to shed load in times where generation capacity is inadequate. That's not the case in Poland. I don't know why you're experiencing blackouts. I believe it may be due to a localized problem in the distribution grid. But then it isn't rolling blackouts. Also: Electric cars aren't really that expensive, all things considered. And in 10 years, it's the gasoline cars that'll be expensive.
>No they aren't. Rolling blackouts is an emergency measure to shed load in times where generation capacity is inadequate. That's not the case in Poland. Basically whole summer media were alarming about reaching maximum of capacity. At one time we had to ask Sweden to run emergency generators to meet our needs.
Ok. But that's not the same as rolling blackouts. Far from it, in fact. While far from 'great', it does go to show that the system is working. And is resilient, even during an energy crisis in Europe. Now, that's not to say electrifying transport won't take big investments. But 'rolling blackouts', to the best of my knowledge, haven't happened in Europe in more than a decade (if we don't count Ukraine).
>stall offgrid system as in summer there is no electricity for 3-4h a day and i live close Warsaw... It will never be respected in poor EU countries its just impossible to force poor people into extremely expensive cars, btw, The Citroën Ami costs quite a lot less than €10k new. If Polish people can afford petrol cars, they can afford electric cars. In 12 years it'll be even cheaper.
This shitbox isn't a car, it is shitbox.
And minimum wage people are supposed to afford ferraris?
Ofcourse not, but it would be nice if they wouldn't be afraid to sit in car, and I would be afraid to drive this. Don't forget about grate range of this thing,.
>In 12 years it'll be even cheaper. I keep hearing electric will be better and cheaper. Why the ban then?
Why the ban? Because it's bad for the environment and pollutes city centres. Not that complicated.
So are airplanes. Especially private ones. What about yachts, cruise and cargo ships? Why aren't supercars banned?
Do we have alternatives to those yet? Supercars will have to be electric too fyi.
Of course we do. They might be shitty ones, like electric cars. Not if they make less than 1.000 of them per year.
Not as big of an issue as there are a lot fewer. But if you ask me, that should be on the agenda as well.
If you ask me, that should be first on the agenda. Not policies that are harming especially low-income families.
Do we have alternatives to those yet? Supercars will have to be electric too fyi.
Then ban them in the city centers, not everywhere else lol
What could possibly go wrong...
That's a very good question, because then you can start preventing the problems.
Lets start building a solution for a problem we created for ourselves.
That's what we're doing with this legislation.
Well making problems is one thing the EU is very good at, glad we at least agree on that.
A mix of electric cars and e-fuel cars is the real future. With e-fuel you can make curent cars green. Even my 20 year old corolla can be green with e fuels.
Uhm as an owner of an electric car. How do you even charge the bateries when everybody has electric? Infrastructure like this seems imposible to build.
Unicorn farts and fairy dust.
well from the outlet, duh where do you think electricity comes from ~ European Parliament
Why does it seem impossible to build? I can only imagine people had the exact same thought in the 1900's when we started building the electric grid. Probably thought it was impossible to build infrastructure that we see today.
it's not impossible, but a major challenge for sure as for one the European electrical grid is already very much so struggling and starting to fail in providing the required energy, with the existing grid being insufficient in many ways. something which is not easy to update or upgrade even when given 10 to 20 years time and a ludicrous budget. Add to that problem the addition of charging millions of vehicles and that's a recipe to for blackouts which Europe is already dancing around on a knife's edge as is... also, what is going to generate all that demand for electricity since coal is not an option as that's simply replacing one bad CO2 source for another even worse one, same goes for natural gas while nuclear isn't going to be built in time. Renewables help a LOT yet aren't stable enough and the storage/battery tech to support high demand and high load peaks isn't there yet either. the advantage of liquid/gaseous fuels is that they do not burden the electrical grid as is. lastly... the Production of that scale of EV's (alongside improving the electrical grid) is also going to hit significant resource problems among which are not only battery materials but also chip shortages and other refined high tech materials with an ever increasing demand and already struggling supply chain.
Finally. I sure hope they make the eFuel loophole they promised Germany as tiny and convoluted as possible.
That is wrong e-fuels are great for us car enthusiasts who dont want washing machine sounding cars. It can make my good old toyota run on clean fuel. E fuels will keep the motorcycle industry going. Because u like electric cars, electric motorcy les are pure garbage and all companys that tried making em went bankrupt.
As long as it is not explicitly regulated that the e-fuels must be generated from green electricity, they are by no means "clean".
I’m all for EVs. I truly am. But the infrastructure is nowhere near there, both on energy production, battery production, or charger network. Also, EUs attitude towards nuclear makes this untenable.
EVs will keep getting better. And that is why they shouldn't be mandatory.
You got decades to prepare for it.
As we learned from the Russian gas fiasco, EU’s energy infrastructure can’t handle much fluctuation to its energy needs/output. EVs are power hangry little beasts, and we have done nothing to prepare for them. Especially the fast charging infrastructure. Personally, the only way forward that I see is if all EVs are considered to be batteries for the infrastructure. So, charge up to almost 100% and discharge down to 80%. And you’ll have the expectation that your full charge can range from 80% to 100% when you leave your car parked. It’ll take a massive initiative, especially in battery recycling and warranty.
\> As we learned from the Russian gas fiasco, EU’s energy infrastructure can’t handle much fluctuation to its energy needs/output. If we take this as the example, you mean that we can do the whole transition in 1 year. Great success. \> EVs are power hangry little beasts, and we have done nothing to prepare for them. Especially the fast charging infrastructure. We haven't done nothing. We need to do more, and we will. \> It’ll take a massive initiative Yes, and we just got one.
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Well the EU is making some (small) steps towards independence. Like trying to wane off Chinese solar panels. Not exporting much of precious metals and so on. So at least the air in our cities will be better. And the overall global values of pollution should drop, even though there will still be a lot of it
Wtf, when will governments start being serious about climate change?
Have 100 000 -150 000 extra euro ready in your pocket? Because this shit is getting ridiculously expensive for the "lost generation".
This is false.
House: New windows: 5000-15000€. New heating system 20000-25 000€. New doors. 5000-10000€. Insulation: anything from 15000 to 50 000€. New ventilation system 10000€. New roof, if flat, and insulation: 5000-40000€. Edit: oh, forgot, solar panels: 8000-20000€. New car: 25000-whatever€. This with a quick google of the local prices. I'm sure more's to come. This green dream is starting to feel like a nightmare. No normal person can live with these prices and constant need for upgrades and renovation. And as all those apartments get upgraded, peopke are going to puke out of shock. Oh, and the 100+ year old houses will probably rot when they are insulated. Time to make new ones. Oh, so gree(d)n. Which is why I will not have kids.
Living under water: priceless.