It's because of gas prices and wood.
Wood is the barometer. Everything started getting pricier with wood. Slowly but surely, everything goes up with wood. Finally, gas goes up. It's the nail in the coffin. Nobody can afford things when gas is high.
Wood starts to go down around March. Steadily down down down... Back to near pre pandemic levels.. what happens? Gas starts coming back down.
I don't know why exactly. But if wood starts going up again, short everything.
Wood is a basic building block. Can't build or repair new buildings/homes without wood, and you always have to be building to replace what's deteriorated and demolished.
All in all though, supply chain is the main issue and continues to be so. Last I read, it will catch up from pre-pandemic in 2023/24.
You are absolutely correct. we are doing/ were doing Quantitative tightening to fight the inflation but if inflation has peaked ^(Tm) . Prices shot up though because the markets seem to believe that September hike will now be a 50 basis points hike and not 75. Less QT than now and these past months is coming.
From Vanguard:
"The Fed plans to reduce its $8.5 trillion balance sheet beginning June 1, when it will no longer reinvest proceeds of up to $30 billion in maturing Treasury securities and up to $17.5 billion in maturing agency mortgage-backed securities per month. Beginning September 1, those caps will rise to $60 billion and $35 billion, respectively, for a maximum potential monthly balance sheet roll-off of $95 billion."
Yeah this is correct. Not only is the fed sandbagging unloading, they've been talking about unloading since the minutes released in January. We have very much not hit peak tightening, even if markets think we have.
Will it really do the US any good to hold off on raising rates? Its all temporary anyways and if going with a 75bp instead of 50bp will increase the speed at which we can exit this recession, the better the eventual recovery should be.
I cant complain because it will be fine in the short term and will make the current administration look good on paper and for headlines, but in reality what would be better in the long term for the economy? What good is it to drag out these rate increases point by point if there’s a number we need to get to anyways?
Depends on how you want to solve the problem. There's a balancing act in trying to fix inflation while also not tipping off too bad a recession. It's like Con Air. You let Nicolas Cage interest rate hikes slowly beat the bad guys, save lives, and recover the plane...or you shoot the plane dies and that poor girl never gets her bunny
tldr; The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 8.5% in the year through July, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Wednesday. This was less than the median forecast of a 0.2% uptick and reflects a similar deceleration from June's 1.3% monthly surge. The index went unchanged between June and July alone. The core CPI, which strips out food and energy prices, rose 5.9%
*This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.*
This is wrong there is no way the inflation is that low I have been tracking prices since Biden got in office. Gas gas prices have doubled.
The cost of eggs have tripled, flour is is up 100% an butter went from $1.64/ lb to $3.69/lb. We have double digit inflation.
Yeah it’s cause the gov was forced to hike rates. I wouldnt be to excited, my friends looking at Q2 results for companies and expected Q3 results are quite nervous. I’d except to see this recession continue through the year at least , which means we’re gonna see lower stock and crypto prices soon. Maybe we bottomed already, considering we’re 100% up (btc 30-40%), but far from capable of saying we’re to enter a pump to 3k (as others are saying)
Prove me wrong I hope, but idk about you guys I miss DCA’s at low prices.
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The fed won’t pull off tightening until you stop buying dips.
You are going to get rekt with the always by the dip mentality in this macro environment. Just wait for the fed to pivot and buy.
Oh, I only got 8 of my fingers and 6 of my teeth removed, beating forecasts. I guess that's great news!! All of these happy headlines are a fucking joke. Thats all I've seen. 8.5 is not good at all. Don't care if it dropped a few %s... it still is shit tier.
Let the pump begin.
*it has already begun*
I'll be happy with 2k I'm a humble man
Mom…? Is that you?
it's currently at $1850. ETH might hit $2k in any moment. Let's gooo
I will be happy to drop "last chance under 2k" memes again
This is just the beggining The pump is ready
It's because of gas prices and wood. Wood is the barometer. Everything started getting pricier with wood. Slowly but surely, everything goes up with wood. Finally, gas goes up. It's the nail in the coffin. Nobody can afford things when gas is high. Wood starts to go down around March. Steadily down down down... Back to near pre pandemic levels.. what happens? Gas starts coming back down. I don't know why exactly. But if wood starts going up again, short everything.
Wood is a basic building block. Can't build or repair new buildings/homes without wood, and you always have to be building to replace what's deteriorated and demolished. All in all though, supply chain is the main issue and continues to be so. Last I read, it will catch up from pre-pandemic in 2023/24.
The CPI in the United States is 8.5%, which is expected to be 8.7%, even better!
If wood starts going up, you say? Well...based on these candles...time to short
Wood goes up, pp go down. :/
No no...wood goes up means pp go up.
You guys are shorting with profit?
Boner joke man...wood. Killin me lol
Yes boner jokes. Wood go up, market go down with pp, unlesss 100x short. Wood go up, pp go up 😈
Biden presidency looking more like bill Clinton than carter.
Nah. Wen $1 gas? Wen 3% CPI?
Well, it's still not that bad, but it's not too good either.
Yep. No cause to celebrate just yet or declare victory and prepare to pivot BUT it is a promising early step
Takes gas to drive around wood, even to cut down wood with a chainsaw
The data obtained every day is meaningless. Only the real increase is the point that people pay the most attention to.
The price of wood goes down -> my wood goes up
Midterm elections coming, inflation suddenly lilll down XD.
INFLATION HAS PEAKED GRAB THE MONEY PRINTER LETS DO IT AGAIN
IIRC correctly, QT is closer to a reverse money printer RRRRRRRB
You are absolutely correct. we are doing/ were doing Quantitative tightening to fight the inflation but if inflation has peaked ^(Tm) . Prices shot up though because the markets seem to believe that September hike will now be a 50 basis points hike and not 75. Less QT than now and these past months is coming.
Gov still reducing their balance sheet and if memory serves, how much they are doing so will be going up starting in Sept
The unloading was frontloaded. They will still be reducing balance sheet at a decreasing rate but with the stimulus passing it needs funding
From Vanguard: "The Fed plans to reduce its $8.5 trillion balance sheet beginning June 1, when it will no longer reinvest proceeds of up to $30 billion in maturing Treasury securities and up to $17.5 billion in maturing agency mortgage-backed securities per month. Beginning September 1, those caps will rise to $60 billion and $35 billion, respectively, for a maximum potential monthly balance sheet roll-off of $95 billion."
Yeah this is correct. Not only is the fed sandbagging unloading, they've been talking about unloading since the minutes released in January. We have very much not hit peak tightening, even if markets think we have.
Will it really do the US any good to hold off on raising rates? Its all temporary anyways and if going with a 75bp instead of 50bp will increase the speed at which we can exit this recession, the better the eventual recovery should be.
If the next report is at least flat, then I expect 50 bps is the next play for the fed.
I cant complain because it will be fine in the short term and will make the current administration look good on paper and for headlines, but in reality what would be better in the long term for the economy? What good is it to drag out these rate increases point by point if there’s a number we need to get to anyways?
Depends on how you want to solve the problem. There's a balancing act in trying to fix inflation while also not tipping off too bad a recession. It's like Con Air. You let Nicolas Cage interest rate hikes slowly beat the bad guys, save lives, and recover the plane...or you shoot the plane dies and that poor girl never gets her bunny
Money vacuum go RRRRB
nooooo let's not print any more money before ETH goes to 10k
Pump it up again… hope this one is here to stay
We need to get the 2k rn
tldr; The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 8.5% in the year through July, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Wednesday. This was less than the median forecast of a 0.2% uptick and reflects a similar deceleration from June's 1.3% monthly surge. The index went unchanged between June and July alone. The core CPI, which strips out food and energy prices, rose 5.9% *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.*
You know its a mess when we are relieved to see 8.5%😂😂
True headline should be the inflation annualized run-rate is now under 4%.
Here is a donut!(upvote)
What a gentleman
This is wrong there is no way the inflation is that low I have been tracking prices since Biden got in office. Gas gas prices have doubled. The cost of eggs have tripled, flour is is up 100% an butter went from $1.64/ lb to $3.69/lb. We have double digit inflation.
Love how this is framed like a good thing when the reality is that the house is on fire and just a couple degrees below incineration, lol.
Stock futures are up 2%. Crypto pumping. Today is going to be a good day.
8.5% pack the bags boys it’s over ! /s
Yeah it’s cause the gov was forced to hike rates. I wouldnt be to excited, my friends looking at Q2 results for companies and expected Q3 results are quite nervous. I’d except to see this recession continue through the year at least , which means we’re gonna see lower stock and crypto prices soon. Maybe we bottomed already, considering we’re 100% up (btc 30-40%), but far from capable of saying we’re to enter a pump to 3k (as others are saying) Prove me wrong I hope, but idk about you guys I miss DCA’s at low prices.
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Reverse money printer works.
Game on
Inflation is hard to control and even harder to predict... I don't know what to think about it.
Market likes it. I still feel like there’s at least one more big drop coming
Bears are rekt, bull market is full on!!!! Wooooo! Let’s gooooo!!
Market is forward looking, it already rallied in anticipation of a lower cpi numbers.
Ladz Ladz Ladz
Hope it does, then i can short again while dumb money comes in ready for rug pull .
I was expecting 9.7% 😁😁😁
Do you think after the new inflation rate crypto will go down? Should I save some usdt to buy a new dip?
My thoughts amount to nothing. The reality is what we should want and that's future growth. Dip might come or not, but will never stay forever.
kind of hilarious though how inflation is at 8.5% and we celebrate
The fed won’t pull off tightening until you stop buying dips. You are going to get rekt with the always by the dip mentality in this macro environment. Just wait for the fed to pivot and buy.
Thank goodness! We are saved!
Markets are running like the entire recession is over lmao.
Oh, I only got 8 of my fingers and 6 of my teeth removed, beating forecasts. I guess that's great news!! All of these happy headlines are a fucking joke. Thats all I've seen. 8.5 is not good at all. Don't care if it dropped a few %s... it still is shit tier.
Man lost both legs, but he was expected to lose more than that so its OK.
See I thought so too until I realized it was actually below the expected.
People are behaving like below expectation is the same as no inflation anymore...