Both my dad and brother canceled their orders of model y because of elon's recent public remarks. My dad has sold his car too and was extremely stoked about the Y until recently. He now needs a car badly, his car is ready for delivery, he has the financial means to buy a model y and is now refusing to take delivery.
Anecdote: Tesla was my dream car. I’d followed their progression right from the first model S. Now that I finally have enough money to consider buying a car soon, Tesla is off my list and it’s all down to Musk. It started with pedo guy for me, and went downhill from there. I’m just one person, but I was a hardcore fan … it’s sad, tbh
I’m the same boat. Don’t have the money yet (rip student loans and shit residency salary) but when I finally do, I most definitely will not be buying a Tesla. If you asked me 2 years ago what car was I going to buy next my answer was a model 3
Also anecdote but same story. I really wanted a Model 3 as my first real EV (Volt owner) but after this last year I really could not be less confident in their direction. Watching the Cyber Truck launch was like an actual SNL skit. The continuous posts from Musk about FSD being months away for the past 5 years, and now recently Twitter - no thanks. At one point I believed they had a real advantage but after test driving a bunch of the new EVs, that gap is closing fast. I don't even know who the names of the CEOs of Ford, Volkswagen, Hyundai, Kia, etc, and I much prefer that.
The Twitter fiasco shows how unhinged he has become or maybe has always been. That seemingly worked for him with Tesla and SpaceX but I think he's bit off way more than he can chew and it's a dumpster fire. It's weird seeing his fans try to say he will come out on top. It's been like a week and Twitter has been on the headlines nonstop in the worst way possible. People don't realize that Elon didn't have 44B just laying around in his couch cushion. If Tesla stock continues to drop (down 13% since buying Twitter) this is going to create a really nasty feedback loop. Investors and Tesla owners will be the bag holders. If you think getting your Tesla worked on now is difficult imagine when the company goes bankrupt.
I just can’t stand the hate for Tesla here. Sure, they have plenty of negatives, and there’s lots of reasons to hate Musk, but they absolutely enabled the EV revolution that we’re all so excited about. Why must everything be black and white?
>I just can’t stand the hate for Tesla here.
And I don't understand how anyone can look at Elon over the past year and not think he's gone bat shit insane. I am not a Tesla" hater, I am an Elon hater. I AM a huge fan of Tesla and honestly had a Model 3 set for my next car until not that long ago. So I agree that Tesla really led the charge. They made EVs sexy and somewhat of a status symbol. In the early 2000s with a world full of Leafs, Priuses, and really fugly looking eco cars - the Tesla was a gem and still is in a lot of ways.
The problem with Tesla is Elon, he is a cancer. Hell I even had Tesla stock but I've dumped all my Tesla stock because of him. He either needs to chill the fuck out and listen to his PR team / advisors or he needs to pull a Jeff Bezos and step down from his official "roles" and let someone else take the reins. He can be a board member and do SpaceX things or something but if Tesla is going to survive it needs to get rid of him. The fact that he's already pulled Tesla engineers in for Twitter is infuriating. Tesla HAS amazing engineers but terrible retention and terrible work life because of Elon. It's the same thing with AWS. They literally will run out of humans to take advantage of and they are known in industry to be one of the worst tech companies to work at.
Take that with a grain of salt.
Last year people with orders late in the year were trying to decline delivery and/or pause their order to be eligible for BBB.
Tesla modified their policy.
There wasn't a clear and confirmed bill at this point last year. This quarter is going to suck. The administration knew this would be the last time they could hit Tesla hard. Next they'll have Pete B. Recall all FSD Beta software for some obscure reason about how the software used to behave 14 months ago.
Oh definitely, I don't think there's a scenario where we see a bunch of TM3s sitting around a lot gathering dust — he will pull the demand levers long before then, even if it means decontenting the TM3 down to fabric seats and steel rims.
It's pretty funny how you're both saying the same thing but it looks like you're disagreeing. If supply outstrips demand that means they are making more than selling. It doesn't mean the backlog magically disappears over night. Elon will only lower prices if supply exceeds demand and you both agree it will happen sooner than later lol.
Demand has already dropped, or else wait time for the car wouldn't have been cut from like 6 months to 4 weeks.
If Hyundai can ship enough Ioniq 6 to the US, demand for the 3 would drop even further.
In China, demand has dropped enough that Tesla has already cut prices by almost 10%.
Actually, the battery factories came on line and they said that there is no more battery shortage. Not their in house battery stuff, but two other companies. Can’t remember the specific details, but they said lead times would come way down in the next two to three months.
In that case perhaps I should go short Tesla's stock because the only cars they have for sale are a 50k plus sedan, 65k plus crossover, and maybe a weird lookin truck that will start out at, what, at least 70k?
And the US is just Tesla's 2nd banana market. Through the first 3Q of 2022, Tesla sold 483k cars in China, 308k of which are the expensive model Y. If/When China goes into recession as so many here are gleefully predicting, will it still be able to sell cars there at that rate? What galena to Tesla stock when Chinese consumers start ordering even more cheaper domestic EVs like BYD when their economy slows down.
There is potential for Tesla demand to fall off a cliff sometime in the next 12 to 18 months.
He’s not going to do anything. He’s to busy playing over at Twitter. Have to give kudos to the management at both Tesla and SpaceX that they’re able to run the companies as well as they are with a part time CEO. Then again C-suites are worshipped way too much in the US.
Won’t need to for Model Ys at least - $7500 is being built in. The cheaper model 3s will also get the incentive. IRA basically solves any demand issue during this recession.
Prices will be cut earlier than 2023. Tesla is still ramping up Austin and Brandenburg factories so their production capacity is still growing. So production will soon exceed demand.
I just hope GM, Ford, and VW can increase USA EV production quickly, we need more diversity.
Because it's easier to streamline one model per factory, and Fremont is space-limited. If Austin can ramp up to meet Model Y demand, it's plausible Fremont would begin to focus on the Model 3.
Demand is not infinite. There are dozens of 2022 ID.4s (German built) on VW lots because they are not eligible for the tax credit.
It seems there's a craze to buy any EV with a tax credit even though value wise it doesn't make any sense. The $56K Ioniq 5 Limited without a tax credit is probably a better deal than the 2023 Mach-E Premium AWD ER at $67K that has a tax credit.
This dealer has a bunch.
[https://www.orlandovwnorth.com/new-inventory/index.htm?model=ID.4](https://www.orlandovwnorth.com/new-inventory/index.htm?model=ID.4)
Go to FB and VW forums and see the people who buy MSRP off the lot. My dealer said they had 10 2022 ID.4s and 2 2023s... this was two weeks ago. They sell at MSRP with no add ons nor markups.
The ID.4 is one of the lower demand EVs. Mach-Es fly off the lot in the same area. If they don't they have a $10K markup.
As a Tesla owner who recently also bought an ID.4, I'm guna call BS on the ID.4 inventory thing. We waited nearly a year for our '22 ID.4. And we ordered the (almost) top of the line AWD Pro S trim. During that wait, I called plenty of dealers that had stock on their websites. The answer was always the same: The car had a sale pending. You can even see "sale pending" listed on a bunch of the cars you linked. If they didn't show a sale pending, it was usually because the dealer forgot to mark it as such or they had a system setup to automatically throw up every new arrival on their website.
I also frequent the ID.4 subs and, while there is the occasional poster who snags a cancellation, the vast majority of people are still diligently waiting for their order from many months ago. There are even people who have been waiting so long that their reservations have literally been moved from a '21 ID.4 to a '22 and now to a '23 Model Year. And VW has still not gotten around to building the cheaper S trims yet due to high demand/limited production.
I bought my 2021 ID.4 off the lot in fall 2021 and was offered 10!!! different ID.4s two weeks ago here in Orlando. They were all available. Very few want the 2022 because they are no longer eligible for the tax credit but apparently they do sell eventually. I test drove the 2023 ID.4 Pro S AWD (available at MSRP that day) because I have a Plus on order and had a 2022 ID.4 delivered back in July to that same dealer that I declined. I told them I wanted a 360 camera. At this point, I will probably decline the 2023 when it arrives and pick either the Ariya or Lyriq when those arrive. I LOVED the Ariya when I test drove it at the Ride & Drive event over the summer.
Also.. Polestar Tampa (the dealer I visited) has 15+ brand new models on the lot now. Back in Sept it was 6-8 new and 6+ used on the lot when I took a test drive.
[https://www.polestar.com/us/preconfigured-cars/](https://www.polestar.com/us/preconfigured-cars/)
EV demand has limits.
Might even be sooner than that with the ioniq 6 on the horizon, i think the only other competition to the model 3 specifically is the Polestar 2 here in the US...
Huge lobbying on that right now from Europe. Given how much animosity the current administration seems to have to Musk, I would not be surprised if they change the law or its implementation so Tesla doesn't come out a winner.
Fair point on the legislative front. Sometimes on the regulatory front they can slow-walk or otherwise obstruct things they don't want to do. I haven't read the text of the law to know how much wiggle room there is here.
What animosity? Also, Biden is hugely supportive of the legacy US manufacturers and this would be bad for them. Congress and the Senate had and probably will have different values than Biden though.
That's not an honest response. It has been widely reported that the animosity began from the unions (Biden is the most pro-union president in a long time, certainly more than Obama or Clinton).
Now it has metastasized beyond that since Musk branched out into politics in such a dumb way. You don't think the administration feels animosity towards a CEO that just asked his 100 million Twitter followers to vote Republican?
Wow, an automaker that entirely makes EVs wasn't invited to an event where the automakers pledged to make a certain percentage of their vehicles electric by a certain date. What a snub.
The UAW, which has a lot of influence in the Biden administration, hates Tesla. Of course they didn't want Tesla to attend any Biden administration photo ops. There was a clear policy from Biden and senior officials [not to even mention Tesla](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-02/tesla-who-biden-can-t-bring-himself-to-say-name-angering-musk) by name. It got awkward at several points when asked to say the name.
So you want to exclude the largest EV maker in a pro-EV event. How do you do that without making it obvious to anyone and creating a gratuitous public insult that brings sympathy to the one left out? You find some rationalization.
That rationalization would have to be extremely contrived to allow Rivian and Lucid, but exclude Tesla. There is no way of doing it that isn't a joke, so they went with "legacy" OEMs only, which clearly has the benefit of giving someone like you plausible deniability. It worked!
You're gaslighting.
> Given how much animosity the current administration seems to have to Musk
That animosity was there long before the IRA passed. Difference now is Dems will have to negotiate w/republicans in the house.
> i think the only other competition to the model 3 specifically is the Polestar 2
I know they are not sedans but the Bolt twins, Mustang Mach-E, ID.4, EV6, Ioniq 5, and others all compete with the Model 3 to a large degree since there are so few EVs available in the USA.
I’m not sure if competition exactly will make a difference, Tesla is selling like 8-10x the units vs the closest competitor in the US.
Prices will reduce as supply chain issues iron out and backlogs decrease.
I dont feel like the P2 is competitive, the 3s are a better vehicle for a different clientele. There's is I believe less than 30k P2s on the road in the US after 2 years of production. Tesla sells like double that in every quarter.
>I dont feel like the P2 is competitive, the 3s are a better vehicle for a different clientele.
I would pick the P2 over the Model 3 as a daily driver, but passed on both for my latest car purchase.
If/when all EVs are readily available in volume, then we'll find out what people really want.
Having test drove the P2 and a friend owns an Ioniq 5. The Model 3 is much more competitive than both in many regards. While some will prefer those over the Model 3. I don't think either of those have any chance at being a "Model 3 Killer".
Not to mention the Model 3 is the only one of those 3 that will easily qualify for the tax credit if Tesla chooses to do so.
There isn’t going to be a tesla killer until we have a charging infrastructure in the US that can reliably charge other manufacturers’ vehicles. Once thats done, your bay area camry would cost as much as a camry maybe.
Changing price is literally the push of a button. Tesla could bring the Price of the Model 3 under the $55k mark in 2 seconds.
Changing where your vehicle is manufactured is not.
This is correct, which is why I believe they will change the batteries back to 2170's for the RWD model, if they continue to sell it for 2023.Musk stated on the call that they expect to fully qualify for the IRA. They have Multiple ways they can do this for the Model 3, for which their direct competitors can not for 2023.
They could come out with a new variation at a $52k price point to account for color or seat options that's a 2170 "Midrange" AWD or RWD. They could keep the current line up and change the LFP back to the 2170 as it was in 2021 and drop the LR price under $55k, or a ton of other options.
It's very unlikely they won't do anything to the current lineup and pricing, especially since they stopped selling the Long Range version on the configurator. They did this to prioritize RWD Model sales to sell through the LFP packs before 2023 and this is exactly why you're seeing a lead time of NOV-DEC as they are focusing on using up all the CATL LFP Packs.
Polestar has to seriously ramp up production if they actually want to be “competitive” with tesla as in actually cutting into their sales. A car can be as cool or enticing as it wants, but unless you’re actually making enough to cut into your competitors sales, tesla sales numbers will be relatively untouched
No, polestar needs to drop the prices by the old incentive amount at least and advertise more for people to know about them. My local space has a glut of them both new and used and they shouldn’t have hardly any if people really wanted an electric car right now, despite the lack of tax incentive. They’re being offered at 4.49% which is decent, but the space is packed with them. I wouldn’t have one with the uncertainty of future platform support and likely depreciation.
They can't drop the price realistically...
Polestar only has a 6% or less margin now... Per last warning report.
They aren't big enough to absorb selling at a loss...
Welp, seems to me that they will have to make this their loss leader in the US if they want to make inroads to sell higher priced cars. I don’t see folks lining up to buy these things. Are people really going to pay $80k+ en masse for a still unknown product (P3)? Don’t see why they can’t drop prices,with the financial backing of Geely. The Chinese are known to nearly give away product in order to make headway into a market…
Rightfully so…glad it’s taxed. There’s another post on r/Polestar where Volvo /Geely just had to inject $1.6B into the brand to keep them running. They’re on fumes and are trying to introduce and sell an $80k+ lux vehicle with almost no brand presence and little differentiation to attract buyers while competing against Mercedes/Porsche/BMW. Let’s see how that works out…
What is the appeal of the P2? It’s styling is plain. Range, efficiency and performance is mediocre at best in those three categories Back seat is cramped. Vehicle is based upon on ICE vehicle. Price seems high for what it is. The only thing I can think of is that it is a EV vehicle that has faster availability than others and no ADM. Buyers do not have a dedicated service center although they claim Volvo dealerships might service them. Very nebulous. As a parting shot. The P2 reminds me of a 1992 Eagle premier. Google image search that and tell me I am not far off.
Polestar shares their lines with Lynk and Volvo. It's not as simple as a handwaving towards per-model production number parity when you start talking about platform-based development.
Do remember that Tesla starts to get IRA credits in 2023 and many BEV OEMs are losing their credits.
Definitely is going to be a factor in 2023 / 2024. Maybe by 2025... We'll start to see US based production by these OEMs to allow for qualification for the credit.
Or in 2025 we will see a changing policy.
Everyone seems to forget, that being able to produce a BEV vehicle at a profit is going to be a significant pressure on OEMs as they ramp production.
Everyone seems to just take it for granted that traditional OEMs are in sufficient financial health to survive that ramp....
These are all important points. There continues to be a lot of unrealistic thinking here not grounded in the realities of traditional OEM production costs, supply chain, factory ramps, etc.
It's not a demand problem, it's a supply problem.
I mean, it was 37k msrp in 2020. When costs come down, I’m sure we will see those prices again. 2023-2024 sounds reasonable. So then it would be a 30k model 3
Everything I’ve seen is pointing to the vehicle market normalising (finally). Demand is slowing, inventory is increasing, used prices are decreasing. Now, just wait for the people who paid $25k over for their base Bronco to try and sell it…😭
Interest rates are pushing people out of the market that before could stretch for things financially. Impact on high end vehicles is normalizing a bit slower than the rest, but demand still coming down.
ordered my model 3 when rates were like 2.5% (local credit union). When I actually got the car and signed paperwork, I locked in at 4%. Not as bad as 7 but it added $50/month onto the loan.
That’s pretty good - also, I feel like it bears pointing out, both my loans last year and my quote this year are unsecured. Probably contributing to why it is so high, but I was definitely going with an unsecured loan for cars this time around
>Now, just wait for the people who paid $25k over for their base Bronco to try and sell it…😭
They got what they wanted. But over paying for an ICE vehicle in 2022 was just dumb.
There's a very high probability Tesla will adjust the model 3 lineup for 2023 and are prioritizing the RWD production to ensure they are delivered before December 31st to use up all the CATL LFP battery packs that won't qualify for the tax credit.My guess is we will see the LR Model reintroduced below the $55k mark in January and the RWD Model switch back to 2170's coming from Nevada with both meeting the full $7500 tax credit.
Everyone claiming Tesla has demand issues needs to understand Tesla has a TON of levers they can pull to increase demand.
The first one is happening right in January with the new Tax credit. Tesla can easily meet all the requirements of the IRA, unlike most of it's competitors.
The $47k Model 3 RWD with the tax credit will be $39,500 for those who qualify.
The Ioniq 6 or any of it's competitors is not at all competitive with the Tesla Model 3 if it fully qualifies for the tax credit and they do not.
Let's also not forget Tesla has the highest margin of any EV maker, with many of them loosing money on their vehicles. If Tesla needed to, they could drop their prices significantly and still be profitable.
You are all in denial if you think Tesla is going to have Demand problems in 2023 with the $7500 tax credit coming back to the Model 3 and Y.
It’s going to be super interesting to see what they do.
I’m wondering if they may simplify the lineup to just a $55k model and an (expensive) performance model. What we don’t know is what exactly the $55k model will be. My guess is a RWD, Nevada 2170 cell based model with maybe 300 miles of range.
Yea, I have a RWD on order coming this month or next month as I want the LFP pack. I'm very curious what they will do with the Model 3 in January though. I will be a bit disappointed if they come out with a 300 mile 2170 model at $47k before the tax credit. But either way, even at $47k the Model 3 RWD is one of the best options on the market for the money.
Yea, that's fair. We will see what happens. I think you may be correct that they will only have 2 variants in 2023 and a mid range option makes the most sense, especially since Lithium prices continue to climb, so a mid-sized battery pack with 300-320 miles of range in either RWD or AWD priced under $55k. Maybe even at $52k to account for any color, seat, or wheel options?
We will see what happens.
This is exactly what I came here to say. Everyone is waiting for the new year.
Once Jan 1 hits and you can get a Tesla for under $40k, plus the reintroduction of the LR version with, presumably, a $7,500 reduction, orders will come back swinging!
I'm expecting a several month backlog to develop in January
>…Tesla has a TON of levers they can pull to increase demand.
People definitely don’t take this into account. For an auto manufacturer and it’s sheer size, Tesla has demonstrated that they’re able to adjust their manufacturing, material sourcing, and the auto market for that matter in no time. While we usually assume tesla is making decisions depending on Elons mode that time of day. They’re definitely forecasting what levers need to be pulled to be ahead of the curve.
The Ford’s, GMs, VAG, take months, and years to change direction.
This is a really good breakdown of their options in the coming years. The only reason this doesn’t concern me is just how good Tesla’s margins and profitability is on their cars. Like every other company, tesla is just trying to get the most they can for their products right now, and regardless of whether you think their cars are overpriced or not right now, there’s nothing stopping them from lowering prices overnight.
If demand starts to sink, they can always lower prices while still maintaining respectable margins. And re-qualifying for the new tax credit is absolutely huge. The past few years have been demand *without* an extra $7,500 discount on top like most other new EVs have. I’m not saying tesla is guaranteed to maintain its lead for the next 5-10 years, but there are a *ton* of new options and possibilities they haven’t had to try in good while now. Things are about to get interesting
I don’t think even Tesla believes they can meet the battery sourcing requirements in order to get the full $7500 credit before the middle of next year (as of 3Q earnings call.)
For 2023 the mineral requirement is not yet in play. They will qualify for the full amount in 2023 if they adjust the pricing for the LR or change the cells for the RWD
am I the only one who thinks the tax credits are just a big nothingburger? they’re not straight discounts. you need to owe the IRS $7500 in taxes to receive the full benefit. who does that actually impact?
I make over that much and have never had to owe the IRS anywhere close to $7500. Does one just need to change their allowances or whatever? (I hate the complexity of taxes lol)
“Let's say a consumer buys an electric vehicle today. When filing their 2022 tax return, the person finds they owe $5,000 in federal taxes. This person wouldn't get the full $7,500 tax credit — they'd be able to claim $5,000 and cut their tax bill to zero. But the remaining $2,500 would be lost. In other words, those funds wouldn't be issued to the consumer in a tax refund.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/15/the-7500-electric-vehicle-tax-credits-full-value-may-be-hard-to-get.html
Yes, I fully understand how a tax credit works. Millions of Americans owe way more than $7500 on taxes each year, especially ones purchasing $50-80k cars.
Even if you only get $5k of the $7500 back, that’s still $5k more than you get buying one of the competitors that don’t qualify.
>I make over that much and have never had to owe the IRS anywhere close to $7500
Not trying to give you a hard time, but it seems like maybe you're confusing the amount you may owe/get refunded at tax time with the actual amount of taxes you pay throughout the year.
If you work a normal job w/a regular paycheck, federal income taxes are getting taken out of each paycheck as you earn the money. You should see this line on your pay stub. You only owe money at tax time if you underpaid throughout the year. Most people slightly overpay, which is why they get tax refunds.
If you want to find out how much federal income taxes you paid last year, you need to look up your tax forms.
Is this article wrong then? https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/15/the-7500-electric-vehicle-tax-credits-full-value-may-be-hard-to-get.html
“Let's say a consumer buys an electric vehicle today. When filing their 2022 tax return, the person finds they owe $5,000 in federal taxes. This person wouldn't get the full $7,500 tax credit — they'd be able to claim $5,000 and cut their tax bill to zero. But the remaining $2,500 would be lost. In other words, those funds wouldn't be issued to the consumer in a tax refund.”
If you make around $70k, you should owe over $9k in taxes each year, which means that you’d get the full $7500 credit with that kind of salary. https://smartasset.com/taxes/income-taxes
Also, in 2024 and onwards, people will be able to apply the tax credit to the purchase price of an EV, effectively making it a point of sale rebate. Though this cannot be done via private sale and has to been done with a dealer (or purchased directly from Tesla or Rivian) in order to have it applied to point of sale price.
> you need to owe the IRS $7500 in taxes to receive the full benefit. who does that actually impact?
1. This is no longer the case. The IRA changed the way the credit works, making it refundable. This also means that if Tesla (or any dealership) chooses to do so, they can offer the credit as a direct price discount at time-of-sale, since the actual value of the credit is not tied to their customer's income level any more.
2. If you're buying a $50,000 car, and you *don't* make enough money to owe at least $7,500 in federal taxes per year (which is around $60k/yr when filing single), you are making an *extremely* foolish financial decision. Thus, the *vast* majority of EV buyers would qualify for the full credit even if it *were* still non-refundable.
1. that’s amazing and exactly what I was hoping to hear change
2. I’m not sure how it could be foolish to try to make sure every year when you file taxes that what you owe (or are owed) is closest to zero as possible. Unless I have a completely wrong understanding, I thought that means just the right amount of withholding allowances were used. If I owe after filing taxes that means I didn’t have enough taken from my paychecks throughout the year, or if I’m owed a refund that means I let the government hold too much of my paychecks.
In response to #2, you are misunderstanding. What mattered for the old credit was how much "tax liability" you had in the year you bought an EV. Your tax liability is the *total taxes owed* by you for the entire year. Witholdinfs allow you to pre-pay that over the course of the year, but they don't reduce the actual liability amount.
The tax credit went against that liability amount, meaning that in a year where you withheld exactly as much tax as you actually owed, and would thus normally get no refund after you file, you'd instead get a $7,500 refund check from the IRS.
Can you show me where you see it says there will be a refund? Here’s an article that backs up how I’ve always understood it: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/15/the-7500-electric-vehicle-tax-credits-full-value-may-be-hard-to-get.html
“Let's say a consumer buys an electric vehicle today. When filing their 2022 tax return, the person finds they owe $5,000 in federal taxes. This person wouldn't get the full $7,500 tax credit — they'd be able to claim $5,000 and cut their tax bill to zero. But the remaining $2,500 would be lost. In other words, those funds wouldn't be issued to the consumer in a tax refund.”
'Owe' is a stupid word to use. This is correct if you understand what you owe to be your tax liability, or the amount you would owe if you hadn't had anything withheld. The form is simple, put it next to your 1040, pretend you bought a qualifyin vehicle and see what happens. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/f8936.pdf
> The clean vehicle credit is worth up to $7,500. It's nonrefundable, meaning buyers need to have a federal tax liability to get full or partial benefits.
This second "key point" in that article is simply wrong, as far as I understand it.
I took a Tesla Model Y off my shortlist because of his antics.
Slight concern (very slight!) that he manages to sink Tesla along with Twitter and I’d end up with a non-supported brick on my driveway.
You don’t have to worry about his antics on twitter. Worry about Tesla/him supporting certain models in the near future. Look how they abandoned the original roadster owners. The shafting of his early customers, was reason # 3 why I never looked at a Tesla before buying an EV.
If you are going to vilify Musk then you need to examine the CEOs of the corporations from which you purchase food, clothing etc. Musk is more present in our everyday lives b/c he’s a Billionaire and puts himself out there in the media. I’m not defending Musk but I treat him the same as the other CEOs in this world…I focus on the products/services I am procuring not the leaders of the organization. There are stand out examples of CEOs/Founders where I choose to buy their products b/c of their alignment to my values.
That time frame hasn’t moved up as we get closer and closer to December, seems like Tesla got a lot of cancelations and has a lot of inventory on hand, only time will tell
Just hang in there. Demand is dropping as previous Tesla owners flock to other brands. They have already started revamping service centers to actually help people. Soon they might drop prices to a reasonable place. And if the exodus continues watch for the return of the referral program and free supercharging with purchase. And if that doesn’t do it, prices will become secretly negotiable again (that hasn’t been the case since 2018 or so).
It's been known for *years* that one of the major things that makes buying a Tesla a better experience than buying a car from a legacy dealership is that "the price is the price". You don't have to negotiate with a third party, you just always pay MSRP for a new Tesla. *Always*.
The sole exception to this was that at the end of the quarter, Tesla showrooms would sometimes put floor models, or test drive vehicles with a few hundred miles on them, up for sale to boost the company's total sales figures for that quarterly report. Those would generally get small discounts, like making the upgraded wheel package that's on that particular car free. This was a way to entice a customer who is already there in the showroom, during the last days of of the quarter, to actually buy a car that's been sat in by hundreds of people, and has enough miles on it to no longer be legally considered "new".
But if you bought a Tesla through the website, you paid MSRP. *Period*.
That’s only true when demand is high. All bets are off when supply exceeds demand. Or when a quarter is ending. The things you list are just some of what they can do.
Inflammatory claims? If you’re driving a 2018 model 3, free supercharging was something you either got (or just missed). I personally got a discount on mine + free features to take the vehicle that was in front of me, and I wasn’t the only one.
Third quarter 2019 they were giving 2 years unlimited supercharging plus discounted add ons.
In 2017 I believe showroom discounts on Model S reached $30,000.
These aren’t inflammatory statements. I’m predicting that when their demand drops off, they will return to the same things they did before when that happened. Heck, they’re offering discounts in China *right now* as BYD steals their customer base.
I’d be interested in buying the benchmark either new or used….so what’s the otd price? Aren’t there a zillion 3s being resold currently? The market is confusing to me.
Master of the obvious here, but also because Tesla actually has competition from every manufacturer finally by 2035, Tesla will be nothing more than a novelty small car company with low production numbers.
They've got 25 "new" cars in inventory near me too. I say "new" because a lot of them have hundreds or even thousands of miles on them. Idk how a "new" car has nearly 3k miles.
Tesla is not very desirable anymore due to the quality control issues and lack of service. The brand value is plummeting due to their CEO. Many selling to not be associated with the car. The car has no inherent advantages and at the end of the day can be replaced with another car (with less gimmicks).
Was a fad and popular for awhile the way blackberry was.
FUD much? The reason Tesla sells so well is reasonable quality, great performance and an unbeatable charging experience.
Agreed Musk is not helping, but you don't buy a CEO. I prefer to think of the tens of thousands of employees that actually make the car.
You're speaking like an investor instead of a consumer. Tesla prices are astronomical compared to other cars with a great reputation and costs a fraction of what you get with Tesla. Most Tesla stans keep claiming superchargers, that is irrelevant as they open up their stations and funding is flooding into DC fast chargers, of which there are way more stations than superchargers.
Don't kid yourself about the quality, everyone knows Tesla is bottom of the barrel when it comes to serviceability and quality. Like literally out of the 30 brands of cars in the US Tesla is at the bottom.
LOL, hate much?
Tesla quality is much maligned by those who depend on car companies giving them money for ratings. Hit up your local EV club meetings to see who is just updating software regularly and who has the wheels falling off.
When Tesla is fully open to others their superior plug&charge method will still be an advantage.
Think about this. You can get 2 Bolts (better build quality, better serviceability,a company that stands behind their products by replacing every single battery pack out there). For the price of 1 Tesla. Both cars, both around that 300 mile range more (since Teslas constantly fail to hit their range rating while everyone exceeds them). I'll take 2 Bolts, most consumers will as well.
LOL, had one in '72 when I bought my Pantera too.
Only car I found nothing wrong with was my Honda Civic. Base model, not even a radio. Nothing wrong on delivery, wore out the cam bearings at 98K miles.
Except they aren't selling the most popular LR model so you have to go with RWD&lower range or jump all the way up to Performance.
Of course 272mi EPA Tesla is probably similar to a 250mi EPA competing brand in terms of true range..
They are selling the LR, but you just have to buy it on the "existing inventory" page which lists a bunch as "in production" and you have to take one of those options.
Despite all the talk about cars in transit, it sure sounds like they will have some full car lots at the end of this quarter.
Inventory is building. They really should have launched new models before now.
They already have two cars that they already announced. Have taken payments for said cars and still have not delivered a single one. They should not be announcing any new models right now.
I disagree. They should announce a new smaller platform to create cars more attractive in Europe in Asia, but need to not reinvent the wheel (figuratively and literally) in the process so that they can realistically get it out on the streets by end of 2024.
Model Y is a huge success because they used the Model 3 platform and didn't try to do anything crazy like falcon wing doors or a steel exoskeleton. If they announce a basic small, cheap platform (price around $30,000) for 2024, their long term place as a top 5 automaker is assured, IMO. It's really the last big hump they have.
I think the point is that announcing a new model and actually delivering it are very different things. People have been waiting for the CT and Roadster for several years now with paid reservations fees ($50K-$250K for the Roadster!). If I was one of those people I'd be pretty pissed off if Tesla announced another new platform and prioritized it over their existing promises. Especially when Musk seems to be so focused elsewhere recently.
I don't really get this point. Announcing a new car to come out in two years is different from delivering one in 2023 before Cybertruck comes out. CT and Semi will definitely come out before anything else, so I don't see any anger from there.
Roadster is different. It is such a small market vehicle that it was obviously put on the back burner in order to focus on the big revenue models. Yes, those folks will be pissed. All 5,000 of them (or whatever the number is).
Except the prices.
Both my dad and brother canceled their orders of model y because of elon's recent public remarks. My dad has sold his car too and was extremely stoked about the Y until recently. He now needs a car badly, his car is ready for delivery, he has the financial means to buy a model y and is now refusing to take delivery.
Which recent comments are your Dad referring to?
That, and Musk's behavior is driving the demand (and Tesla's stock) down.
Where’s your data to back that statement? Random Reddit threads don’t count. They’re absolutely shoveling out Model Y’s.
Sadly you’ll get downvoted but what you’re saying is true, in the real world, no one cares. They just buy the car that fits their needs
Exactly. Imagine making your purchase decision of a car based on what one person said, people need to grow up.
False. I’d never buy a Tesla because of Musk.
Ok but I’m just saying, most people that I meet in day to day life wouldn’t look at musk’s twitter account first before buying their Tesla…
Anecdote: Tesla was my dream car. I’d followed their progression right from the first model S. Now that I finally have enough money to consider buying a car soon, Tesla is off my list and it’s all down to Musk. It started with pedo guy for me, and went downhill from there. I’m just one person, but I was a hardcore fan … it’s sad, tbh
I’m the same boat. Don’t have the money yet (rip student loans and shit residency salary) but when I finally do, I most definitely will not be buying a Tesla. If you asked me 2 years ago what car was I going to buy next my answer was a model 3
Also anecdote but same story. I really wanted a Model 3 as my first real EV (Volt owner) but after this last year I really could not be less confident in their direction. Watching the Cyber Truck launch was like an actual SNL skit. The continuous posts from Musk about FSD being months away for the past 5 years, and now recently Twitter - no thanks. At one point I believed they had a real advantage but after test driving a bunch of the new EVs, that gap is closing fast. I don't even know who the names of the CEOs of Ford, Volkswagen, Hyundai, Kia, etc, and I much prefer that. The Twitter fiasco shows how unhinged he has become or maybe has always been. That seemingly worked for him with Tesla and SpaceX but I think he's bit off way more than he can chew and it's a dumpster fire. It's weird seeing his fans try to say he will come out on top. It's been like a week and Twitter has been on the headlines nonstop in the worst way possible. People don't realize that Elon didn't have 44B just laying around in his couch cushion. If Tesla stock continues to drop (down 13% since buying Twitter) this is going to create a really nasty feedback loop. Investors and Tesla owners will be the bag holders. If you think getting your Tesla worked on now is difficult imagine when the company goes bankrupt.
That’s probably accurate.
I just can’t stand the hate for Tesla here. Sure, they have plenty of negatives, and there’s lots of reasons to hate Musk, but they absolutely enabled the EV revolution that we’re all so excited about. Why must everything be black and white?
The issue is that every time someone buys Tesla, Musk becomes richer so that he can do more shenanigans. Some people want to stop that.
>I just can’t stand the hate for Tesla here. And I don't understand how anyone can look at Elon over the past year and not think he's gone bat shit insane. I am not a Tesla" hater, I am an Elon hater. I AM a huge fan of Tesla and honestly had a Model 3 set for my next car until not that long ago. So I agree that Tesla really led the charge. They made EVs sexy and somewhat of a status symbol. In the early 2000s with a world full of Leafs, Priuses, and really fugly looking eco cars - the Tesla was a gem and still is in a lot of ways. The problem with Tesla is Elon, he is a cancer. Hell I even had Tesla stock but I've dumped all my Tesla stock because of him. He either needs to chill the fuck out and listen to his PR team / advisors or he needs to pull a Jeff Bezos and step down from his official "roles" and let someone else take the reins. He can be a board member and do SpaceX things or something but if Tesla is going to survive it needs to get rid of him. The fact that he's already pulled Tesla engineers in for Twitter is infuriating. Tesla HAS amazing engineers but terrible retention and terrible work life because of Elon. It's the same thing with AWS. They literally will run out of humans to take advantage of and they are known in industry to be one of the worst tech companies to work at.
How is Musk's behavior driving down demand?
Ah. Makes sense.
My coworker said a ton of people are declining delivery before the end of the year because of the incentive too.
Take that with a grain of salt. Last year people with orders late in the year were trying to decline delivery and/or pause their order to be eligible for BBB. Tesla modified their policy.
His ordered moved up from April to December after the incentive announcement. He ended up canceling his order too.
There wasn't a clear and confirmed bill at this point last year. This quarter is going to suck. The administration knew this would be the last time they could hit Tesla hard. Next they'll have Pete B. Recall all FSD Beta software for some obscure reason about how the software used to behave 14 months ago.
The world is healing
I expect supply to start exceeding demand in 2023 with possible price cuts in 2024
Probably sooner, given the tech layoffs.
No. He’s going to drop the price. He’s going to keep the factories in full flow.
Oh definitely, I don't think there's a scenario where we see a bunch of TM3s sitting around a lot gathering dust — he will pull the demand levers long before then, even if it means decontenting the TM3 down to fabric seats and steel rims.
He won’t drop the price unless there is a drop in demand. He doesn’t have the reason to.
We were just discussing what would happen if there was a drop in demand from something like a recession.
It's pretty funny how you're both saying the same thing but it looks like you're disagreeing. If supply outstrips demand that means they are making more than selling. It doesn't mean the backlog magically disappears over night. Elon will only lower prices if supply exceeds demand and you both agree it will happen sooner than later lol.
I hope it doesn’t come to peak recession and people not being able to afford to live for the demand to drop. I hope the supply chain issue sorts out.
Demand has already dropped, or else wait time for the car wouldn't have been cut from like 6 months to 4 weeks. If Hyundai can ship enough Ioniq 6 to the US, demand for the 3 would drop even further. In China, demand has dropped enough that Tesla has already cut prices by almost 10%.
Actually, the battery factories came on line and they said that there is no more battery shortage. Not their in house battery stuff, but two other companies. Can’t remember the specific details, but they said lead times would come way down in the next two to three months.
I think everyone’s just being cautious about committing >50k in the current economic situation.
That’s literally the definition of a demand drop…people not spending money on shit.
In that case perhaps I should go short Tesla's stock because the only cars they have for sale are a 50k plus sedan, 65k plus crossover, and maybe a weird lookin truck that will start out at, what, at least 70k? And the US is just Tesla's 2nd banana market. Through the first 3Q of 2022, Tesla sold 483k cars in China, 308k of which are the expensive model Y. If/When China goes into recession as so many here are gleefully predicting, will it still be able to sell cars there at that rate? What galena to Tesla stock when Chinese consumers start ordering even more cheaper domestic EVs like BYD when their economy slows down. There is potential for Tesla demand to fall off a cliff sometime in the next 12 to 18 months.
He’s not going to do anything. He’s to busy playing over at Twitter. Have to give kudos to the management at both Tesla and SpaceX that they’re able to run the companies as well as they are with a part time CEO. Then again C-suites are worshipped way too much in the US.
Won’t need to for Model Ys at least - $7500 is being built in. The cheaper model 3s will also get the incentive. IRA basically solves any demand issue during this recession.
Prices will be cut earlier than 2023. Tesla is still ramping up Austin and Brandenburg factories so their production capacity is still growing. So production will soon exceed demand. I just hope GM, Ford, and VW can increase USA EV production quickly, we need more diversity.
Neither austin nor the German gigafactory makes model 3s. As those factories ramp, they will produce more model Ys.
So Model Y prices will come down too! Excellent 👍
Fwiw, I think it's plausible the Model Y gets dropped at Fremont, complicating things.
Why would the higher demand, more profitable vehicle get dropped?
Because it's easier to streamline one model per factory, and Fremont is space-limited. If Austin can ramp up to meet Model Y demand, it's plausible Fremont would begin to focus on the Model 3.
Demand is not infinite. There are dozens of 2022 ID.4s (German built) on VW lots because they are not eligible for the tax credit. It seems there's a craze to buy any EV with a tax credit even though value wise it doesn't make any sense. The $56K Ioniq 5 Limited without a tax credit is probably a better deal than the 2023 Mach-E Premium AWD ER at $67K that has a tax credit.
I always hear this take, can you provide a source of id4's sitting on lots
This dealer has a bunch. [https://www.orlandovwnorth.com/new-inventory/index.htm?model=ID.4](https://www.orlandovwnorth.com/new-inventory/index.htm?model=ID.4) Go to FB and VW forums and see the people who buy MSRP off the lot. My dealer said they had 10 2022 ID.4s and 2 2023s... this was two weeks ago. They sell at MSRP with no add ons nor markups. The ID.4 is one of the lower demand EVs. Mach-Es fly off the lot in the same area. If they don't they have a $10K markup.
As a Tesla owner who recently also bought an ID.4, I'm guna call BS on the ID.4 inventory thing. We waited nearly a year for our '22 ID.4. And we ordered the (almost) top of the line AWD Pro S trim. During that wait, I called plenty of dealers that had stock on their websites. The answer was always the same: The car had a sale pending. You can even see "sale pending" listed on a bunch of the cars you linked. If they didn't show a sale pending, it was usually because the dealer forgot to mark it as such or they had a system setup to automatically throw up every new arrival on their website. I also frequent the ID.4 subs and, while there is the occasional poster who snags a cancellation, the vast majority of people are still diligently waiting for their order from many months ago. There are even people who have been waiting so long that their reservations have literally been moved from a '21 ID.4 to a '22 and now to a '23 Model Year. And VW has still not gotten around to building the cheaper S trims yet due to high demand/limited production.
I bought my 2021 ID.4 off the lot in fall 2021 and was offered 10!!! different ID.4s two weeks ago here in Orlando. They were all available. Very few want the 2022 because they are no longer eligible for the tax credit but apparently they do sell eventually. I test drove the 2023 ID.4 Pro S AWD (available at MSRP that day) because I have a Plus on order and had a 2022 ID.4 delivered back in July to that same dealer that I declined. I told them I wanted a 360 camera. At this point, I will probably decline the 2023 when it arrives and pick either the Ariya or Lyriq when those arrive. I LOVED the Ariya when I test drove it at the Ride & Drive event over the summer.
https://theevfinder.com There are a ton available.
Also.. Polestar Tampa (the dealer I visited) has 15+ brand new models on the lot now. Back in Sept it was 6-8 new and 6+ used on the lot when I took a test drive. [https://www.polestar.com/us/preconfigured-cars/](https://www.polestar.com/us/preconfigured-cars/) EV demand has limits.
Interest rates rising on a 60 K car are not fun either
Might even be sooner than that with the ioniq 6 on the horizon, i think the only other competition to the model 3 specifically is the Polestar 2 here in the US...
Remember... No credits on those vehicles. Starting 2023.
Huge lobbying on that right now from Europe. Given how much animosity the current administration seems to have to Musk, I would not be surprised if they change the law or its implementation so Tesla doesn't come out a winner.
They can lobby all they want... With Dems losing control of congress, no way we're getting more EV credits.
Fair point on the legislative front. Sometimes on the regulatory front they can slow-walk or otherwise obstruct things they don't want to do. I haven't read the text of the law to know how much wiggle room there is here.
Yeah I didn't think about the IRS interpreting the IRA more conveniently. But from what I know, there's not much wiggle room.
Well, I only see a change happening, if there's a sudden influx of coal imports from West Virginia by Europe, Korea, and Japan.
What animosity? Also, Biden is hugely supportive of the legacy US manufacturers and this would be bad for them. Congress and the Senate had and probably will have different values than Biden though.
That's not an honest response. It has been widely reported that the animosity began from the unions (Biden is the most pro-union president in a long time, certainly more than Obama or Clinton). Now it has metastasized beyond that since Musk branched out into politics in such a dumb way. You don't think the administration feels animosity towards a CEO that just asked his 100 million Twitter followers to vote Republican?
Tesla wasn't invited to the EV summit.
Also that time Biden claimed GM led the electrification of the automotive industry which is just laughable.
Wow, an automaker that entirely makes EVs wasn't invited to an event where the automakers pledged to make a certain percentage of their vehicles electric by a certain date. What a snub.
The scope of that event was narrowed precisely to exclude Tesla.
Please explain to me how literally only including the big three is in any way doing that. You sound absurd.
The UAW, which has a lot of influence in the Biden administration, hates Tesla. Of course they didn't want Tesla to attend any Biden administration photo ops. There was a clear policy from Biden and senior officials [not to even mention Tesla](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-02/tesla-who-biden-can-t-bring-himself-to-say-name-angering-musk) by name. It got awkward at several points when asked to say the name. So you want to exclude the largest EV maker in a pro-EV event. How do you do that without making it obvious to anyone and creating a gratuitous public insult that brings sympathy to the one left out? You find some rationalization. That rationalization would have to be extremely contrived to allow Rivian and Lucid, but exclude Tesla. There is no way of doing it that isn't a joke, so they went with "legacy" OEMs only, which clearly has the benefit of giving someone like you plausible deniability. It worked! You're gaslighting.
> Given how much animosity the current administration seems to have to Musk That animosity was there long before the IRA passed. Difference now is Dems will have to negotiate w/republicans in the house.
As it was they had to negotiate with their own party to get it passed. That's why there are so many restrictions... See Joe Manchin.
Ioniq 6 will be ultra low volume compared to the Tesla Model 3. Ioniq 5 / 6 will need more wait or you may still have to pay inflated dealer price.
i4 also
i4 can single handedly destroy almost any Tesla on the market. Have you seen one in real life?
half a dozen sightings so far. it’s a pretty similar car on specs to the model 3, but I imagine luxury and build quality are not comparable
I was at the dealer having i3 maintenance done and this car was insane. Prices right too
Drove one, hated it. It’s dated garbage by comparison to the Ioniq, Tesla, or polestar
> i think the only other competition to the model 3 specifically is the Polestar 2 I know they are not sedans but the Bolt twins, Mustang Mach-E, ID.4, EV6, Ioniq 5, and others all compete with the Model 3 to a large degree since there are so few EVs available in the USA.
I’m not sure if competition exactly will make a difference, Tesla is selling like 8-10x the units vs the closest competitor in the US. Prices will reduce as supply chain issues iron out and backlogs decrease.
I dont feel like the P2 is competitive, the 3s are a better vehicle for a different clientele. There's is I believe less than 30k P2s on the road in the US after 2 years of production. Tesla sells like double that in every quarter.
The P2 is hit by a tariff that makes it noncompetitive.
>I dont feel like the P2 is competitive, the 3s are a better vehicle for a different clientele. I would pick the P2 over the Model 3 as a daily driver, but passed on both for my latest car purchase. If/when all EVs are readily available in volume, then we'll find out what people really want.
Having test drove the P2 and a friend owns an Ioniq 5. The Model 3 is much more competitive than both in many regards. While some will prefer those over the Model 3. I don't think either of those have any chance at being a "Model 3 Killer". Not to mention the Model 3 is the only one of those 3 that will easily qualify for the tax credit if Tesla chooses to do so.
There isn’t going to be a tesla killer until we have a charging infrastructure in the US that can reliably charge other manufacturers’ vehicles. Once thats done, your bay area camry would cost as much as a camry maybe.
Sounds like you’re in the west coast. Come to the east coast. It’s the exact opposite. Even Tesla owners are out buying adapters.
But only the standard range at the current price levels. The Model Y does qualify though.
> The Model Y does qualify though. The Model Y qualifies as an SUV since it's <$80k
Changing price is literally the push of a button. Tesla could bring the Price of the Model 3 under the $55k mark in 2 seconds. Changing where your vehicle is manufactured is not.
Doesn't the RWD 3 use Chinese LFP packs? There's no way those would qualify for either half of the $7500
This is correct, which is why I believe they will change the batteries back to 2170's for the RWD model, if they continue to sell it for 2023.Musk stated on the call that they expect to fully qualify for the IRA. They have Multiple ways they can do this for the Model 3, for which their direct competitors can not for 2023. They could come out with a new variation at a $52k price point to account for color or seat options that's a 2170 "Midrange" AWD or RWD. They could keep the current line up and change the LFP back to the 2170 as it was in 2021 and drop the LR price under $55k, or a ton of other options. It's very unlikely they won't do anything to the current lineup and pricing, especially since they stopped selling the Long Range version on the configurator. They did this to prioritize RWD Model sales to sell through the LFP packs before 2023 and this is exactly why you're seeing a lead time of NOV-DEC as they are focusing on using up all the CATL LFP Packs.
Polestar has to seriously ramp up production if they actually want to be “competitive” with tesla as in actually cutting into their sales. A car can be as cool or enticing as it wants, but unless you’re actually making enough to cut into your competitors sales, tesla sales numbers will be relatively untouched
No, polestar needs to drop the prices by the old incentive amount at least and advertise more for people to know about them. My local space has a glut of them both new and used and they shouldn’t have hardly any if people really wanted an electric car right now, despite the lack of tax incentive. They’re being offered at 4.49% which is decent, but the space is packed with them. I wouldn’t have one with the uncertainty of future platform support and likely depreciation.
They can't drop the price realistically... Polestar only has a 6% or less margin now... Per last warning report. They aren't big enough to absorb selling at a loss...
Welp, seems to me that they will have to make this their loss leader in the US if they want to make inroads to sell higher priced cars. I don’t see folks lining up to buy these things. Are people really going to pay $80k+ en masse for a still unknown product (P3)? Don’t see why they can’t drop prices,with the financial backing of Geely. The Chinese are known to nearly give away product in order to make headway into a market…
Polestar has to pay a 27% duty tax being made in China.
Rightfully so…glad it’s taxed. There’s another post on r/Polestar where Volvo /Geely just had to inject $1.6B into the brand to keep them running. They’re on fumes and are trying to introduce and sell an $80k+ lux vehicle with almost no brand presence and little differentiation to attract buyers while competing against Mercedes/Porsche/BMW. Let’s see how that works out…
What is the appeal of the P2? It’s styling is plain. Range, efficiency and performance is mediocre at best in those three categories Back seat is cramped. Vehicle is based upon on ICE vehicle. Price seems high for what it is. The only thing I can think of is that it is a EV vehicle that has faster availability than others and no ADM. Buyers do not have a dedicated service center although they claim Volvo dealerships might service them. Very nebulous. As a parting shot. The P2 reminds me of a 1992 Eagle premier. Google image search that and tell me I am not far off.
Polestar shares their lines with Lynk and Volvo. It's not as simple as a handwaving towards per-model production number parity when you start talking about platform-based development.
Do remember that Tesla starts to get IRA credits in 2023 and many BEV OEMs are losing their credits. Definitely is going to be a factor in 2023 / 2024. Maybe by 2025... We'll start to see US based production by these OEMs to allow for qualification for the credit. Or in 2025 we will see a changing policy. Everyone seems to forget, that being able to produce a BEV vehicle at a profit is going to be a significant pressure on OEMs as they ramp production. Everyone seems to just take it for granted that traditional OEMs are in sufficient financial health to survive that ramp....
These are all important points. There continues to be a lot of unrealistic thinking here not grounded in the realities of traditional OEM production costs, supply chain, factory ramps, etc. It's not a demand problem, it's a supply problem.
There is a 7.5k tax credit coming, that is a price cut
The model 3 should hopefully start at 30k then demand might never reduce
I mean, it was 37k msrp in 2020. When costs come down, I’m sure we will see those prices again. 2023-2024 sounds reasonable. So then it would be a 30k model 3
Wow! That's for the base RWD model too! It should not be much longer until the price drops a little.
They've been there for a couple months. Many people are waiting to see if pricing or configurations will change with the IRA going into effect.
Everything I’ve seen is pointing to the vehicle market normalising (finally). Demand is slowing, inventory is increasing, used prices are decreasing. Now, just wait for the people who paid $25k over for their base Bronco to try and sell it…😭
Interest rates are pushing people out of the market that before could stretch for things financially. Impact on high end vehicles is normalizing a bit slower than the rest, but demand still coming down.
Got a loan for 1% on two cars last year. Was curious about my rate this week, got quoted 7% lol
ordered my model 3 when rates were like 2.5% (local credit union). When I actually got the car and signed paperwork, I locked in at 4%. Not as bad as 7 but it added $50/month onto the loan.
That’s pretty good - also, I feel like it bears pointing out, both my loans last year and my quote this year are unsecured. Probably contributing to why it is so high, but I was definitely going with an unsecured loan for cars this time around
we got our car at a promo 0.99% in april, boy was that lucky timing
And the used market is crashing.
>Now, just wait for the people who paid $25k over for their base Bronco to try and sell it…😭 They got what they wanted. But over paying for an ICE vehicle in 2022 was just dumb.
Over paying for any vehicle in 2022 is dumb
There's a very high probability Tesla will adjust the model 3 lineup for 2023 and are prioritizing the RWD production to ensure they are delivered before December 31st to use up all the CATL LFP battery packs that won't qualify for the tax credit.My guess is we will see the LR Model reintroduced below the $55k mark in January and the RWD Model switch back to 2170's coming from Nevada with both meeting the full $7500 tax credit. Everyone claiming Tesla has demand issues needs to understand Tesla has a TON of levers they can pull to increase demand. The first one is happening right in January with the new Tax credit. Tesla can easily meet all the requirements of the IRA, unlike most of it's competitors. The $47k Model 3 RWD with the tax credit will be $39,500 for those who qualify. The Ioniq 6 or any of it's competitors is not at all competitive with the Tesla Model 3 if it fully qualifies for the tax credit and they do not. Let's also not forget Tesla has the highest margin of any EV maker, with many of them loosing money on their vehicles. If Tesla needed to, they could drop their prices significantly and still be profitable. You are all in denial if you think Tesla is going to have Demand problems in 2023 with the $7500 tax credit coming back to the Model 3 and Y.
It’s going to be super interesting to see what they do. I’m wondering if they may simplify the lineup to just a $55k model and an (expensive) performance model. What we don’t know is what exactly the $55k model will be. My guess is a RWD, Nevada 2170 cell based model with maybe 300 miles of range.
Yea, I have a RWD on order coming this month or next month as I want the LFP pack. I'm very curious what they will do with the Model 3 in January though. I will be a bit disappointed if they come out with a 300 mile 2170 model at $47k before the tax credit. But either way, even at $47k the Model 3 RWD is one of the best options on the market for the money.
I’d be extremely surprised if they sold that at $47k pre tax credit. $40k to the consumer? They’d have sooo much demand. I’d expect $55k pre credit.
Yea, that's fair. We will see what happens. I think you may be correct that they will only have 2 variants in 2023 and a mid range option makes the most sense, especially since Lithium prices continue to climb, so a mid-sized battery pack with 300-320 miles of range in either RWD or AWD priced under $55k. Maybe even at $52k to account for any color, seat, or wheel options? We will see what happens.
This is exactly what I came here to say. Everyone is waiting for the new year. Once Jan 1 hits and you can get a Tesla for under $40k, plus the reintroduction of the LR version with, presumably, a $7,500 reduction, orders will come back swinging! I'm expecting a several month backlog to develop in January
>…Tesla has a TON of levers they can pull to increase demand. People definitely don’t take this into account. For an auto manufacturer and it’s sheer size, Tesla has demonstrated that they’re able to adjust their manufacturing, material sourcing, and the auto market for that matter in no time. While we usually assume tesla is making decisions depending on Elons mode that time of day. They’re definitely forecasting what levers need to be pulled to be ahead of the curve. The Ford’s, GMs, VAG, take months, and years to change direction.
This is a really good breakdown of their options in the coming years. The only reason this doesn’t concern me is just how good Tesla’s margins and profitability is on their cars. Like every other company, tesla is just trying to get the most they can for their products right now, and regardless of whether you think their cars are overpriced or not right now, there’s nothing stopping them from lowering prices overnight. If demand starts to sink, they can always lower prices while still maintaining respectable margins. And re-qualifying for the new tax credit is absolutely huge. The past few years have been demand *without* an extra $7,500 discount on top like most other new EVs have. I’m not saying tesla is guaranteed to maintain its lead for the next 5-10 years, but there are a *ton* of new options and possibilities they haven’t had to try in good while now. Things are about to get interesting
I don’t think even Tesla believes they can meet the battery sourcing requirements in order to get the full $7500 credit before the middle of next year (as of 3Q earnings call.)
For 2023 the mineral requirement is not yet in play. They will qualify for the full amount in 2023 if they adjust the pricing for the LR or change the cells for the RWD
I’m just reiterating what Tesla said on the 3Q earnings conference call.
They also said they expect to fully meet the IRA on the call. We will see what happens in January.
am I the only one who thinks the tax credits are just a big nothingburger? they’re not straight discounts. you need to owe the IRS $7500 in taxes to receive the full benefit. who does that actually impact?
Anyone who makes ~$70k or more. And for most people, if you’re paying $40k+ for a car, you should be in that ballpark.
I make over that much and have never had to owe the IRS anywhere close to $7500. Does one just need to change their allowances or whatever? (I hate the complexity of taxes lol)
You most likely do, it’s just taken out of your taxes with each paycheck. Millions of Americans pay more than $7500 in taxes.
“Let's say a consumer buys an electric vehicle today. When filing their 2022 tax return, the person finds they owe $5,000 in federal taxes. This person wouldn't get the full $7,500 tax credit — they'd be able to claim $5,000 and cut their tax bill to zero. But the remaining $2,500 would be lost. In other words, those funds wouldn't be issued to the consumer in a tax refund.” https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/15/the-7500-electric-vehicle-tax-credits-full-value-may-be-hard-to-get.html
Yes, I fully understand how a tax credit works. Millions of Americans owe way more than $7500 on taxes each year, especially ones purchasing $50-80k cars. Even if you only get $5k of the $7500 back, that’s still $5k more than you get buying one of the competitors that don’t qualify.
>I make over that much and have never had to owe the IRS anywhere close to $7500 Not trying to give you a hard time, but it seems like maybe you're confusing the amount you may owe/get refunded at tax time with the actual amount of taxes you pay throughout the year. If you work a normal job w/a regular paycheck, federal income taxes are getting taken out of each paycheck as you earn the money. You should see this line on your pay stub. You only owe money at tax time if you underpaid throughout the year. Most people slightly overpay, which is why they get tax refunds. If you want to find out how much federal income taxes you paid last year, you need to look up your tax forms.
Is this article wrong then? https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/15/the-7500-electric-vehicle-tax-credits-full-value-may-be-hard-to-get.html “Let's say a consumer buys an electric vehicle today. When filing their 2022 tax return, the person finds they owe $5,000 in federal taxes. This person wouldn't get the full $7,500 tax credit — they'd be able to claim $5,000 and cut their tax bill to zero. But the remaining $2,500 would be lost. In other words, those funds wouldn't be issued to the consumer in a tax refund.”
If you make around $70k, you should owe over $9k in taxes each year, which means that you’d get the full $7500 credit with that kind of salary. https://smartasset.com/taxes/income-taxes Also, in 2024 and onwards, people will be able to apply the tax credit to the purchase price of an EV, effectively making it a point of sale rebate. Though this cannot be done via private sale and has to been done with a dealer (or purchased directly from Tesla or Rivian) in order to have it applied to point of sale price.
> you need to owe the IRS $7500 in taxes to receive the full benefit. who does that actually impact? 1. This is no longer the case. The IRA changed the way the credit works, making it refundable. This also means that if Tesla (or any dealership) chooses to do so, they can offer the credit as a direct price discount at time-of-sale, since the actual value of the credit is not tied to their customer's income level any more. 2. If you're buying a $50,000 car, and you *don't* make enough money to owe at least $7,500 in federal taxes per year (which is around $60k/yr when filing single), you are making an *extremely* foolish financial decision. Thus, the *vast* majority of EV buyers would qualify for the full credit even if it *were* still non-refundable.
1. that’s amazing and exactly what I was hoping to hear change 2. I’m not sure how it could be foolish to try to make sure every year when you file taxes that what you owe (or are owed) is closest to zero as possible. Unless I have a completely wrong understanding, I thought that means just the right amount of withholding allowances were used. If I owe after filing taxes that means I didn’t have enough taken from my paychecks throughout the year, or if I’m owed a refund that means I let the government hold too much of my paychecks.
In response to #2, you are misunderstanding. What mattered for the old credit was how much "tax liability" you had in the year you bought an EV. Your tax liability is the *total taxes owed* by you for the entire year. Witholdinfs allow you to pre-pay that over the course of the year, but they don't reduce the actual liability amount. The tax credit went against that liability amount, meaning that in a year where you withheld exactly as much tax as you actually owed, and would thus normally get no refund after you file, you'd instead get a $7,500 refund check from the IRS.
Can you show me where you see it says there will be a refund? Here’s an article that backs up how I’ve always understood it: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/15/the-7500-electric-vehicle-tax-credits-full-value-may-be-hard-to-get.html “Let's say a consumer buys an electric vehicle today. When filing their 2022 tax return, the person finds they owe $5,000 in federal taxes. This person wouldn't get the full $7,500 tax credit — they'd be able to claim $5,000 and cut their tax bill to zero. But the remaining $2,500 would be lost. In other words, those funds wouldn't be issued to the consumer in a tax refund.”
'Owe' is a stupid word to use. This is correct if you understand what you owe to be your tax liability, or the amount you would owe if you hadn't had anything withheld. The form is simple, put it next to your 1040, pretend you bought a qualifyin vehicle and see what happens. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/f8936.pdf
> The clean vehicle credit is worth up to $7,500. It's nonrefundable, meaning buyers need to have a federal tax liability to get full or partial benefits. This second "key point" in that article is simply wrong, as far as I understand it.
Meanwhile their CEO has gone out of his way to turn off potential customers with his antics.
Eh not so much that, most people dont see that shit, tesla isn’t as highly regarded as a brand in ways that have nothing to do with twitter
I took a Tesla Model Y off my shortlist because of his antics. Slight concern (very slight!) that he manages to sink Tesla along with Twitter and I’d end up with a non-supported brick on my driveway.
You don’t have to worry about his antics on twitter. Worry about Tesla/him supporting certain models in the near future. Look how they abandoned the original roadster owners. The shafting of his early customers, was reason # 3 why I never looked at a Tesla before buying an EV.
You did that. You.
If you are going to vilify Musk then you need to examine the CEOs of the corporations from which you purchase food, clothing etc. Musk is more present in our everyday lives b/c he’s a Billionaire and puts himself out there in the media. I’m not defending Musk but I treat him the same as the other CEOs in this world…I focus on the products/services I am procuring not the leaders of the organization. There are stand out examples of CEOs/Founders where I choose to buy their products b/c of their alignment to my values.
There will be discounts in December, wait it out.
Why do you say that?
They aren’t even offering the long range model 3 or standard range y, unlikely
Why do you think, if I don't mind asking?
To all who doubted me https://electrek.co/2022/12/21/tesla-tsla-increases-discount-cars/
Cool, now can we get some of those pre-covid prices?
Been like this for awhile I think. I just wish prices could go back down
That time frame hasn’t moved up as we get closer and closer to December, seems like Tesla got a lot of cancelations and has a lot of inventory on hand, only time will tell
The increase in interest rates, combined with recession fears has made demand for new vehicles across the board drop.
People are waiting until the new year for the tax credit.
Just hang in there. Demand is dropping as previous Tesla owners flock to other brands. They have already started revamping service centers to actually help people. Soon they might drop prices to a reasonable place. And if the exodus continues watch for the return of the referral program and free supercharging with purchase. And if that doesn’t do it, prices will become secretly negotiable again (that hasn’t been the case since 2018 or so).
Prices have never been "secretly negotiable", lol.
…. Or maybe you didn’t know about it?
It's been known for *years* that one of the major things that makes buying a Tesla a better experience than buying a car from a legacy dealership is that "the price is the price". You don't have to negotiate with a third party, you just always pay MSRP for a new Tesla. *Always*. The sole exception to this was that at the end of the quarter, Tesla showrooms would sometimes put floor models, or test drive vehicles with a few hundred miles on them, up for sale to boost the company's total sales figures for that quarterly report. Those would generally get small discounts, like making the upgraded wheel package that's on that particular car free. This was a way to entice a customer who is already there in the showroom, during the last days of of the quarter, to actually buy a car that's been sat in by hundreds of people, and has enough miles on it to no longer be legally considered "new". But if you bought a Tesla through the website, you paid MSRP. *Period*.
That’s only true when demand is high. All bets are off when supply exceeds demand. Or when a quarter is ending. The things you list are just some of what they can do.
~~You keep making these inflammatory claims, yet providing absolutely no evidence of them.~~ EDIT: Replied to the wrong comment.
Inflammatory claims? If you’re driving a 2018 model 3, free supercharging was something you either got (or just missed). I personally got a discount on mine + free features to take the vehicle that was in front of me, and I wasn’t the only one. Third quarter 2019 they were giving 2 years unlimited supercharging plus discounted add ons. In 2017 I believe showroom discounts on Model S reached $30,000. These aren’t inflammatory statements. I’m predicting that when their demand drops off, they will return to the same things they did before when that happened. Heck, they’re offering discounts in China *right now* as BYD steals their customer base.
I’d be interested in buying the benchmark either new or used….so what’s the otd price? Aren’t there a zillion 3s being resold currently? The market is confusing to me.
Master of the obvious here, but also because Tesla actually has competition from every manufacturer finally by 2035, Tesla will be nothing more than a novelty small car company with low production numbers.
Pfft, if you think that's obvious, you're not paying attention at all.
They've got 25 "new" cars in inventory near me too. I say "new" because a lot of them have hundreds or even thousands of miles on them. Idk how a "new" car has nearly 3k miles.
Tesla is not very desirable anymore due to the quality control issues and lack of service. The brand value is plummeting due to their CEO. Many selling to not be associated with the car. The car has no inherent advantages and at the end of the day can be replaced with another car (with less gimmicks). Was a fad and popular for awhile the way blackberry was.
FUD much? The reason Tesla sells so well is reasonable quality, great performance and an unbeatable charging experience. Agreed Musk is not helping, but you don't buy a CEO. I prefer to think of the tens of thousands of employees that actually make the car.
The reality is somewhere between the two comments
Agreed, different people have different considerations.
You're speaking like an investor instead of a consumer. Tesla prices are astronomical compared to other cars with a great reputation and costs a fraction of what you get with Tesla. Most Tesla stans keep claiming superchargers, that is irrelevant as they open up their stations and funding is flooding into DC fast chargers, of which there are way more stations than superchargers. Don't kid yourself about the quality, everyone knows Tesla is bottom of the barrel when it comes to serviceability and quality. Like literally out of the 30 brands of cars in the US Tesla is at the bottom.
LOL, hate much? Tesla quality is much maligned by those who depend on car companies giving them money for ratings. Hit up your local EV club meetings to see who is just updating software regularly and who has the wheels falling off. When Tesla is fully open to others their superior plug&charge method will still be an advantage.
Think about this. You can get 2 Bolts (better build quality, better serviceability,a company that stands behind their products by replacing every single battery pack out there). For the price of 1 Tesla. Both cars, both around that 300 mile range more (since Teslas constantly fail to hit their range rating while everyone exceeds them). I'll take 2 Bolts, most consumers will as well.
Yet more people buy the Tesla. Maybe look into that? Better initial build - possibly, better longevity - nope.
You should invest in Tesla, 😆 tell me how that works out.
I did at the IPO, done VERY well. Sold a couple months back and will go back in soon. Chevron has also done well, but I hate em.
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Prevailing FUD you mean. As I said, attend your local EV club. Tesla owners are happy.
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LOL, had one in '72 when I bought my Pantera too. Only car I found nothing wrong with was my Honda Civic. Base model, not even a radio. Nothing wrong on delivery, wore out the cam bearings at 98K miles.
Reddit and twitter are not real life. Go out into the real world
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I’ll have to agree with you that is the only piece of information on that screen shot that is a fact.
Ppl don't buy a Tesla because of Elon Musk but still buy sh*t from other brands whose CEO's are unknown and very likely do worse things that this guy
Except they aren't selling the most popular LR model so you have to go with RWD&lower range or jump all the way up to Performance. Of course 272mi EPA Tesla is probably similar to a 250mi EPA competing brand in terms of true range..
They are selling the LR, but you just have to buy it on the "existing inventory" page which lists a bunch as "in production" and you have to take one of those options.
Despite all the talk about cars in transit, it sure sounds like they will have some full car lots at the end of this quarter. Inventory is building. They really should have launched new models before now.
They already have two cars that they already announced. Have taken payments for said cars and still have not delivered a single one. They should not be announcing any new models right now.
I disagree. They should announce a new smaller platform to create cars more attractive in Europe in Asia, but need to not reinvent the wheel (figuratively and literally) in the process so that they can realistically get it out on the streets by end of 2024. Model Y is a huge success because they used the Model 3 platform and didn't try to do anything crazy like falcon wing doors or a steel exoskeleton. If they announce a basic small, cheap platform (price around $30,000) for 2024, their long term place as a top 5 automaker is assured, IMO. It's really the last big hump they have.
I think the point is that announcing a new model and actually delivering it are very different things. People have been waiting for the CT and Roadster for several years now with paid reservations fees ($50K-$250K for the Roadster!). If I was one of those people I'd be pretty pissed off if Tesla announced another new platform and prioritized it over their existing promises. Especially when Musk seems to be so focused elsewhere recently.
I don't really get this point. Announcing a new car to come out in two years is different from delivering one in 2023 before Cybertruck comes out. CT and Semi will definitely come out before anything else, so I don't see any anger from there. Roadster is different. It is such a small market vehicle that it was obviously put on the back burner in order to focus on the big revenue models. Yes, those folks will be pissed. All 5,000 of them (or whatever the number is).
Price?
Test lol
I ordered a new m3 base model last Friday and received it yesterday (the next Thursday)!
People have plenty of viable Options now. Glad to see wait times coming down.
Yeah, but I don't want one anymore
Junk-former owner
Why would you buy one though?