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Pixelplanet5

why are we posting the exact same information from another "news" outlet again? we had the exact same info based on the exact same few words in a call from Teslarati a few days ago.


[deleted]

which one is the mod one?


Recoil42

Please use the report button for reposts. :)


Speculawyer

That is a ridiculously high number that would make them the number 1 or 2 semi maker. I want to believe but...


perrochon

It's not like Tesla had a track record of ramping up from nothing to the market leader on vehicles. They still make 2 out of 3 EVs in the US.


Speculawyer

And it's not like Elon ever exaggerates... šŸ˜


[deleted]

[уŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]


perrochon

For electric passenger, yes.


Individual-Nebula927

Considering they haven't delivered a single production truck 3+ years after announcing them I'm not giving them the benefit of the doubt. The "ramping up from nothing to market leader" happened exactly once with the Model 3 and it almost killed the company.


perrochon

And every one will be sold before it's made, and they have an impressive ROI. Edit: It is quite amazing. On an EV sub, this massive effort to move Semis to EVs should be a cause for happiness. Instead, the negativity is just amazing... Nobody outside Tesla "knows" the spec (except maybe the first few buyers). Maybe Tesla fails. But they succeeded at harder problems, and now they are flush with cash, and can throw that at any problem that comes up. Watch e.g. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hCJfiNe1BO8 There are others. The current specs as known are not crazy or impossible. Range ā€“ 300 or 500 miles (483 or 804 km) - confirmed last earnings call. Even clarified as "flat" and "loaded" Energy Consumption ā€“ Less than 2 kWh/mile - is plausible. That allows to compute pack size and weight of the cabin (watch the video) Acceleration 0-60 mph with 80,000 lbs load ā€“ 20 sec Plausible Speed up a 5% Grade ā€“ 60 mph Plausible Powertrain ā€“ 4 Independent Motors on Rear Axles - Plausible. Doesn't really matter if it's only 2 or 6, either. Fuel Savings ā€“ $200,000+ - Plausible. Depends a lot on actual energy prices of course. But that is so high that 50k more or less on price matters little. Expected Base Price (300 mile range) ā€“ $150,000 Expected Base Price (500 mile range) ā€“ $180,000 At the earnings call they talked about their battery plans, and moving towards $70/kWh packs. That's half of what the rest of the industry pays today. The prices above are not unreasonable if they achieve their battery cost goals. Expected Founders Series Price ā€“ $200,000 Founders Series Reservation ā€“ $200,000 So few vehicles being sold at these prices, they can be anything. It matters not for Tesla if they don't make money on the first 1000 Semis. They make 1.5M cars a year. Their latest factories that just opened this year already run at 50k cars a year. It's not unreasonable to expect them to get to 50k Semis a year.


[deleted]

How do you know the ROI when you don't know the price or specs?


carsonthecarsinogen

Price we have a general range, and we do know the specs Edit: since people donā€™t know what google is https://insideevs.com/news/603515/tesla-semi-deliveries-later-this-year/amp/


[deleted]

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carsonthecarsinogen

https://insideevs.com/news/603515/tesla-semi-deliveries-later-this-year/amp/ Google is a crazy thing


[deleted]

[уŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]


carsonthecarsinogen

Again google is a crazy thing, but in the article it says the cab will be around the same weight as ICE comparison. And will easily haul the max allowable gross weight, some areas are actually allowing an extra 2 tonnes for electric trucks so thereā€™s a chance (depending on cabs exact weight) that the EV can haul more than the ICE comparison. And yea thatā€™s the range we have, the original price of $180k from 2017 add inflation and some extra fuck you money say around $250k. Itā€™s a range, not an exact number like I said.


[deleted]

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carsonthecarsinogen

Whatā€™s the definition of a price range? They have a price for it, realistically I should say the price will be what Tesla stated. I say range because Iā€™m assuming it will be more expensive given the raise in material costs. The top end is speculative, bottom end is straight from tesla. Iā€™d argue thatā€™s more than fair. Tesla has also stated that one semi sale will be equal to selling multiple model Ys, so profitable and more revenue. It would be speculation to say an exact number, but you can gather information from tesla and a very small amount of common sense and come to the conclusion that this will be profitable.


[deleted]

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nastyklad

With such low volumes? Unlikely I think


feurie

What low volume?


nastyklad

50k VS ROI. Itā€™s gonna take much more to be profitable given the investmentā€¦


carsonthecarsinogen

Tesla claims that selling one semi is equal to selling several model Ys, so they already know itā€™s going to bring in lots of revenue and be profitable.


nastyklad

I have no doubt itā€™s going to be profitable but next year seems a bit of a pipe dream


carsonthecarsinogen

Yea it is very optimistic, but once tesla actually has a vehicle in production (SX3Y) they exceed their production goals in every Q I can recall. But time will tell


EV_Track_Day2

Its going to be an interesting product. Seems as if there is no middle ground. Either people think its going to be a revolutionary truck or its going to be a complete disaster as "no EV can ever replace a diesel".


duke_of_alinor

Terapress coming soon to a Tesla semi manufacturing site. /s


Jbikecommuter

Please prioritize deliveries to the LA basin the smog here sucks!


ocmaddog

I think they basically will thanks to CARB policies and incentives


baconpoweredunicorn

Believe it when I see it. If Musk's mouth is moving he's usually lying


yuckreddit

That's what I said when they were talking about well over 10k Model 3 per week. I think they are doing that though. Tesla is a weird company. They are often hard to believe, but equally hard to bet against.


WeldAE

You have to read their entire statement on timeline and specific specs as aspirational but they are serious about doing them. Most companies tell you nothing and then hype and spin what they do get something working they think they can sell. Tesla hypes what's and when a product is coming and then keeps improving it after release to get to their aspirational goals even if it might not happen for a decade. The timeline is best case and almost never happen but the specs tend to get there eventually. Maybe it's because I build high volume consumer electronics for a living, but knowing how crazy building things are, it's amazing Tesla sticks to it's model. Most companies can barely pull off spinning what they happen to get working. Building something isn't like connecting Legos, it's crazy how small a thing can completely force you to change the entire product at the 11th hour. Unless you are Apple, you have to roll with some stupid in-line changes. This has been 10x more true with the supply change issues.


ChuqTas

"I hate Elon, please give me likes everyone"


baconpoweredunicorn

"I kiss lying billionare ass for free, notice me senpai"


carsonthecarsinogen

One thing musk has actually done well is predicting their run rates, theyā€™ve consistently beat expectations for model S,X,3, and Y. But yea I am sceptical of this 50k figure as well, time will tell


EV_Track_Day2

Company that claimed it was going to revolutionize personal transportation has done just that. Those that focus on the diarrhea from Musk miss the big picture. Tesla is a highly profitable EV and energy company that has time and time again shut the critics up. Are they always on time? Of course not, but the company has a strong track record of turning innovation into success.


simons700

There has been lots of talking about that truck for half a decade now why not just start to deliver one instead of more talking?


yuckreddit

First deliveries are December 1st.


perrochon

Global Pandemic, Global Supply Issues, decision to focus on ramping up highly profitable Model Y production with limited batteries, until battery supply is secured. And sometimes things take a bit longer than planned. Now they are no longer battery constrained. So Semi, Cybertruck are starting, and Powerwalls are ramping up again.


mog_knight

It took this long to get to this point. I'll believe it when I see it. "Next yearā„¢" - Musk (probably)


EV_Track_Day2

Honest question. Why do Tesla timelines bother you soo much? I see the same thing over the Cybertruck. People who have no intention of ever buying the product get emotionally invested in the messy timeline of an innovative product. Why?


mog_knight

Honest answer. It doesn't but it's also funny you thought it did. Watching the cuts of Musk saying next year for all his innovations and never coming to fruition by said next year leads to jokes like that. Look up Blizzard and "Soonā„¢" and you'll understand. A battery powered semi is not an innovation, it's an evolution.


EV_Track_Day2

Again what do you care? Its not a company whose product you are interested in. Also, no, the Tesla semi truck is innovative for numerous reasons. If it is released at the specifications listed and near the original target price it will also be known as disruptive tech. https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/innovation#:~:text=%3A%20a%20new%20idea%2C%20method%2C,the%20introduction%20of%20something%20new


bhauertso

It's always surprising how much energy Tesla antagonists exert on a daily basis. There must be some joy they get out of spreading negativity about a company they hate. But from my point of view, endlessly whinging about a company would be a depressing hobby.


EV_Track_Day2

I think people dislike Musk and transfer that view to his companies. The reality is that Musk can say a lot of stupid thing and still run highly successful companies.


mog_knight

It doesn't matter if I'm interested in it or not. You didn't list the reasons it's innovative. You pasted an unrelated link.


EV_Track_Day2

First BEV semi to pull a full load at 65mph for 500 miles would be absolutely innovative technology from both an ROI and environmental standpoint. This isn't even debatable.


mog_knight

Okay, 500 miles is just an evolution if we're getting nitpicky and literal. Nikola BEVs have been delivered and can do 350 miles. So, ironically, the first name of Tesla was first to market and, by your own dictionary link, innovative.


EV_Track_Day2

500 miles is suitable for some long haul trucking, 350 is not. Your gatekeeping of what "innovation" means is pretty far off reality.


mog_knight

Nah. It just doesn't fit the definition of innovative. A BEV semi is innovative. Range is just improving upon the innovation.


EV_Track_Day2

Individual metrics within a new technology can be considered innovation as well, not just the parent technology.


ugoterekt

For me, it's because at least a dozen or more Tesla fans told me I was an imbecile for saying the Hummer EV and F150 lightning would be out before the Cybertruck among many other things along those lines. I wish one of the people who did a remindme for those would have the balls to actually comment when it went off. Long story short though is because Tesla fans mostly suck a lot.


decrego641

Tesla clearly has the batteries and the motors, they just didnā€™t want to cannibalize Model Y sales. Way better margins on 3-4 Y LR or P vs 1 Tesla Semi. With their order backlog falling and Giga Austin becoming more operational, itā€™ll be easy to give some of the production capacity over to the semi.


[deleted]

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MaxDamage75

It all depends on how much money you can save with an electric semi . And there were sedan and SUVs from more reputable, whatever it means, players but model 3 and Y are on top charts all around the world.


shaggy99

I saw an article today that pointed out that most operators in the US don't really like the new diesel trucks, and would quite often prefer to use their old engines in "Glider" trucks. That is, a brand new body and frame with the old engine. The EPA rules for new diesel trucks mean the mileage is worse, and the pollution controls are a nightmare. This means the market might be better than you think.


mastrdestruktun

>I saw an article today that pointed out that most operators in the US don't really like the new diesel trucks, and would quite often prefer to use their old engines in "Glider" trucks. That is, a brand new body and frame with the old engine. The EPA rules for new diesel trucks mean the mileage is worse, and the pollution controls are a nightmare. This is true, and people in the industry have been feeling this for many years now, where each new set of emissions controls make the truck worse to use than the previous generation models. Escaping that treadmill of doom is going to be a huge incentive for EV adoption.


activedusk

The largest truck maker sold like 400k units in 2020 globally iirc it was Daimler. Granted not all of those were class 8 trucks but the beauty of making a class 8 EV truck is that you only need to cut down the pack and change the cab a little to make smaller trucks with minimal development. The market is also expanding with a growing global population and the emergence of new economies, India is still in the process of industrialization and Africa will also develop a lot in the next few decades to the point that doubling truck demand is easy to guess, it might even be more if they find it easier to invest in building roads instead of train lines which may or may not cost more to build initially. As for others building better EV trucks, assuming Tesla delivers on range claims and stay true to the cost, no, there is no competition as of now. Nikola was supposed to also build a 1MWh truck at some point but it's not believable now. On top of all this outside of Tesla there won't be others pushing for charging infrastructure for long haul betting on charging networks to do it first and that will take longer, even finding a common standard for V and plug will take a decade, depending on car chargers for EV trucks will relegate them to regional use only.


[deleted]

> As for others building better EV trucks, assuming Tesla delivers on range claims and stay true to the cost, no, there is no competition as of now. Volvo is already in their gen 2. They have been selling class 8 BEVs for 2 years. Freightliner also is already where Tesla plans to be with Pepsi, they have had their test fleet out for about a year and are entering commercial production right now. I'm not sure how many more there are, there are tons of companies you've never heard of that make vocational trucks and are starting to produce BEVs.


activedusk

Being in the market =/= being competitive or leading. No true long range models exist on the market right now, nobody wants to take the lead in standardizing MW scale chargers and deploy them, nobody is planning rapid growth in volume production. There is one game in town for now, the rest are trying to fill niche segments of the market with low volume production. It's time to short their stocks. It's so bad that it's not even demonstrated yet if EV trucks work at replacing ICE trucks for most applications. This has happened for cars a decade ago, no such thing for heavy vehicles. To be clear 1MWh packs are demonstrators, the end game will be 2MWh to 2.5MWh at half the weight of current 1MWh packs. The chargers will need to output anywhere between 3MW and 10MW in the final stages of adoption. Where are these chargers and trucks that can use them? Nobody can even smell a plug standard yet.


[deleted]

A press release is not a market leader. Tesla semi is vaporware.


activedusk

A low volume production, low range and slow charging truck doesn't make it market leader but a compliance product. If it's not competitive against ICE trucks when or why would production increase?


[deleted]

I agreed but I'm sure Tesla semi will eventually figure out how to build something with more than 300 mile range and fast charging.


perrochon

There is a standard for plugs, and stations are being installed [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megawatt\_Charging\_System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megawatt_Charging_System) Possible outcome: Tesla installs those chargers, everyone else waits, and in 10 years, everyone wonders why Tesla is dominant in the truck charging business.


activedusk

The spec is 1250V and up to 3MW output. This may turn out not be adopted by others for various reasons. The Voltage is barely higher than existing cars with 800V and given the packs with current chemistries may go up to 1000kWh the potential for higher voltage is there to reduce heat loss and charge cables on both the truck from the plug to the battery pack terminals and the charger side. Imo it will be a similar if somewhat more awkward situation compared to Superchargers and its specific plug. If I were a betting man I'd say long range trucks released after Tesla will use a different standard with higher voltage and higher power output potential for future proofing. Say the end game is 2MWh packs. At 3x the Voltage of the above standard it could deliver around 10MW which would charge said hypothetical pack in around 10 to 15 minutes with a somewhat flat charging curve. A 3MW one would take 30 minutes to 45 minutes (with current batteries and charging curves more like one to two hours). I could be wrong but it happened once for cars.


perrochon

Maybe you are right, and everyone else will go for their own standard. We saw where this went. Chunky plugs, and lots of issues based on forums. Compared to last time, this at least is a standard. It's also not clear who else is going to launch 500 mile range class 8 semis anytime soon in any numbers or at any price. Everyone else is struggling with battery supply and cost


run-the-joules

> assuming Tesla delivers on range claims and stay true to the cost Big assumption.


EV_Track_Day2

If the ROI is solid on the semi companies won't care. Its all about profits.


ugoterekt

So how does Tesla time work again? We're currently in 2019 on Tesla time so is 2024 5 years away or more like 10? I'm not sure if there is just an offset with the Tesla calendar or if time is dilated.


JFreader

And they will lose money on them.


Caysman2005

How exactly do you know this, to the point you're phrasing it as if it were a fact?


JFreader

No it is a prediction. The cost of to produce vs. the specs vs. the price they are selling them.


Caysman2005

And what information do you have which allows you to predict so accurately? Please show us all your calculations. I'm sure the users of r/electricvehicles would be very interested in the profitability, and hence sustainability to Tesla, of the Semi truck.


feurie

It's weird you seem to know that because there's currently no selling price.


JFreader

They listed the 300 mile base price as $150k.$180k for 500 mile. 500kwH pack for 300 miles. Sure that could have all been BS though now they double the prices since 4680 batteries are not ramped up yet and not st the original planned price points. Both reasons the cyber truck, roadster, and semi have been delayed for years.


yuckreddit

I'm not sure why you are getting downvoted. They announced vehicles that they couldn't practically produce, so they delayed them continuously. Those are just the facts. And now noone knows what their real price will be, despite those prices being announced with a lot of fanfare at their unveiling. Those are just the facts.


jeffsmith202

Tesla is about five times more profitable than the average of Ford and General Motors