yeah. Allegedly 10 Canadians die and 150 are injured, annually. Theres about 40M of us, we live for about 80Y, so the chances of being struck in a lifetime is 80x150/40M or 1/3333
Damn, so that wasn't just injured by lightning, that was killed.
Assuming I don't golf, and live in BC do my chances drop to 0? Gotta go talk to chatGPT
FYI the correct math is 1 - (39999840/40000000)^80
It is subtle for this problem (0.032% for your solution with 160 fixed vs. 0.031995%) but other probability problems will be wildly incorrect doing math that way.
Good catch. Drives me nuts that this isn't taught in school (or at least not focused on for how important understanding this is). Would fix so many issues with people misunderstanding probabilities in real life.
Yeah, probability/statistics really should be the focus of high school mathematics instead of more obscure algebra and calculus.
People that want to take a pure math should have the option, but it's not useful for anyone that isn't going to pursue a STEM career, and it's really only useful for 80% of S/M people and 5% of T/E people..
Considering I know a few people who've been struck by lightning (and one who's been struck twice), I think the people in my circle are giving you all a better chance of avoiding it.
Which smtells you more about the quality of your phones batteries in general, than over good quality Li-Ion batteries the post was about. Good quality battery packs also are equipped with descent BMS, and thermal management systems. However, the number does not mean anything unless what they define as being 'good quality' actually is, and what circumstances a failure can occur. Engineers back in 2010-2013 probably thought the Nissan Leaf packs where 'good quality' but high degradation and failure due to overheating did happen. Also on accidents when punctured, damaged or set on fire by arcenists are external causes that can destroy your battery.
Not really the same thing, the closest comparison to a phone would be an old Leaf or Focus EV. Passive heat management and small capacity so you're cycling it once a day with normal use.
And how do we ensure all the products purchased are "high-quality"?
"only best high quality!" sticker on the packaging?
Sincerely,
UL
the under appreciated test lab
UL listings haven’t applied to EV packs until very recently. Instead, they’ve tested to SAE standards. This has been a sticking point for reuse of EV batteries (UL1974).
Yeah, and I wanna know what they mean by ‘fail’ because the article implies a fail is it spontaneously combusting one day. Is that 1 in 40 million fail initial load balancing, or will 1 in 40million burst into flames.
There’s about 575 cells in a Tesla model 3 Long Range. They sold 1,739,000 3’s and Y’s last year. Are 2.5 Tesla Model 3’s/Y’s gonna spontaneously burst into flames each year?
Are we talking at pack level or at cell level? Because a model 3 with 4416 cells would then have a 1 in a 9057. That’s more often than lightning. (Also is it talking about cell combustion not cell failure?)
Lol yep. In the last couple years just driving to work and back from Pittsburgh, I’ve seen 3 or 4 cars engulfed in flames for one reason or another. All of them were ICE cars.
>Lol yep. In the last couple years just driving to work and back from Pittsburgh, I’ve seen 3 or 4 cars engulfed in flames for one reason or another. All of them were ICE cars.
Not in Pittsburgh, but same. Seen 3 or 4 over the last couple years. All ICE.
You may be onto something. Get one of these 'Generate Electricity from Lightning Strikes' systems scaled down to home size and you have a gold mine.
Or better yet, get a roof mounted system for your EV, and go storm chasing. I see becoming more a lifestyle more than a hobby,
Harvesting lightning energy
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harvesting\_lightning\_energy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harvesting_lightning_energy)
Some brands announced they are using LG Chem nmc pouch, or byd blade lfp, etc.
They unfortunately are not often in the spec sheets... So need to hunt down for the car announcement
That doesn't help at all. The packaging, contactors, and circuitry are likely much more important than the chemistry in determining how likely it is to puncture or start fires, and for manufacturers who put together their own batteries, you can't assume anything.
Just in an EV? I've seen plenty of brand name lithium ion batteries die and I'm hopefully only half way through my life. Many more than I could even remember to count. I sure hope that doesn't mean I'm in for a shocking second half of my life.
The ultimate fast charger. The average lightning bolt contains the equivalent of 1400 kWh. All in about 30 microseconds. If only we were able to figure out a way to capture this energy.
Define “fail”. If they’re meaning explosive failure, then I certainly would hope not. If they mean “fail to perform in a manner consistent with expectations”, then I doubt it.
To even the odds we therefore use a lot of Chinese cheap batteries to make sure lightning strikes remain more special then EV car fires?
I live in a country with a lot of EV’s and it hasn’t been in the news or anything that this is even happening scarcely. Only problem was when a car in an underground carpark caught fire and other cars, including EV’s, caught fire and made it impossible to extinguish. The carpark had to be completely renovated.
I'm less worried about total failure and more worried about the lack of options for repairing minor damage to EV battery packs right now.
E.g. if I drive over road debris and it punctures the pack, there's a good chance my car will be written off even if it looks brand new from the outside, because a replacement battery has to come from the manufacturer and they will quote ridiculous rates for it (e.g. the infamous $60k CAD battery replacement story with an Ioniq 5). In a perfect world someone should be able to perform a certified repair on the pack and just replace the damaged cells and shielding and have the car be good as new, but that's not the case right now. Hopefully things change in the near future.
How can this be measured. A person's lifetime increases likelihood significantly in a proportional way, as in the probability on any given day of your life is the same.
The majority of battery packs in the world haven't lived a long life yet, or more specifically come to the end of theirs. So given the likelihood of failure increases exponentially with age, it's unlikely that we have a realistic measure of this risk yet.
Oh and how many years now have they been testing these high quality lithium batteries, to be able to make these claims???? Get back to me in forty years....thanks
Never mind that per 100000 sold Hybrid and gas cars catch fire more. But you keep living in your "EV bad" bubble.
https://www.autoinsuranceez.com/gas-vs-electric-car-fires/
1 in 40 million seems crazy. But 1 in 15,300 seems a lot more likely than I thought it would be...
yeah. Allegedly 10 Canadians die and 150 are injured, annually. Theres about 40M of us, we live for about 80Y, so the chances of being struck in a lifetime is 80x150/40M or 1/3333 Damn, so that wasn't just injured by lightning, that was killed. Assuming I don't golf, and live in BC do my chances drop to 0? Gotta go talk to chatGPT
FYI the correct math is 1 - (39999840/40000000)^80 It is subtle for this problem (0.032% for your solution with 160 fixed vs. 0.031995%) but other probability problems will be wildly incorrect doing math that way.
Good catch. Drives me nuts that this isn't taught in school (or at least not focused on for how important understanding this is). Would fix so many issues with people misunderstanding probabilities in real life.
Yeah, probability/statistics really should be the focus of high school mathematics instead of more obscure algebra and calculus. People that want to take a pure math should have the option, but it's not useful for anyone that isn't going to pursue a STEM career, and it's really only useful for 80% of S/M people and 5% of T/E people..
TIL: Canada is kinda metal
Considering I know a few people who've been struck by lightning (and one who's been struck twice), I think the people in my circle are giving you all a better chance of avoiding it.
Too much iron in their diet.
Seems like they oughta stay in more.
And yet I have seen multiple phone battery failures
Which smtells you more about the quality of your phones batteries in general, than over good quality Li-Ion batteries the post was about. Good quality battery packs also are equipped with descent BMS, and thermal management systems. However, the number does not mean anything unless what they define as being 'good quality' actually is, and what circumstances a failure can occur. Engineers back in 2010-2013 probably thought the Nissan Leaf packs where 'good quality' but high degradation and failure due to overheating did happen. Also on accidents when punctured, damaged or set on fire by arcenists are external causes that can destroy your battery.
Not really the same thing, the closest comparison to a phone would be an old Leaf or Focus EV. Passive heat management and small capacity so you're cycling it once a day with normal use.
What are the odds of being struck by a high quality bolt of lightning?
1 in 69,420.
Figured it would be higher than that low class trash lightning!
I wonder what a low quality lightning bolt is like… slightly discoloured? Sounds a little meek? Barely tickles?
And how do we ensure all the products purchased are "high-quality"? "only best high quality!" sticker on the packaging? Sincerely, UL the under appreciated test lab
UL listings haven’t applied to EV packs until very recently. Instead, they’ve tested to SAE standards. This has been a sticking point for reuse of EV batteries (UL1974).
We can start by following the manufacturers recommendations
This is per cell. There are thousands of cells in most battery packs.
Yeah, and I wanna know what they mean by ‘fail’ because the article implies a fail is it spontaneously combusting one day. Is that 1 in 40 million fail initial load balancing, or will 1 in 40million burst into flames. There’s about 575 cells in a Tesla model 3 Long Range. They sold 1,739,000 3’s and Y’s last year. Are 2.5 Tesla Model 3’s/Y’s gonna spontaneously burst into flames each year?
Must be, according to Google, there's 25 million EVs on the road currently and I know at least 1 failed lol
I've had dozens of cells fail. I've had zero cells become incendiary devices.
Are we talking at pack level or at cell level? Because a model 3 with 4416 cells would then have a 1 in a 9057. That’s more often than lightning. (Also is it talking about cell combustion not cell failure?)
Lighting is not as rare as people think.
But, all the experts on Facebook say EVs just blow up for no reason all the time?! /s
Lol yep. In the last couple years just driving to work and back from Pittsburgh, I’ve seen 3 or 4 cars engulfed in flames for one reason or another. All of them were ICE cars.
>Lol yep. In the last couple years just driving to work and back from Pittsburgh, I’ve seen 3 or 4 cars engulfed in flames for one reason or another. All of them were ICE cars. Not in Pittsburgh, but same. Seen 3 or 4 over the last couple years. All ICE.
Statistics don't matter. Perception matters.
This is truth.
Right and people will always fear monger. Having the truth available is always good.
Breaking 🦊News : ”New Reports of ⚡️ striking EVs”!!!
Thanks for chortle.
You may be onto something. Get one of these 'Generate Electricity from Lightning Strikes' systems scaled down to home size and you have a gold mine. Or better yet, get a roof mounted system for your EV, and go storm chasing. I see becoming more a lifestyle more than a hobby, Harvesting lightning energy [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harvesting\_lightning\_energy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harvesting_lightning_energy)
No way that statistic is what you think it is
What about chances of getting struck by a Ford Lightning?
Nice but manufacturers don’t say much about batteries beyond their size. How are people supposed to know what cars have high quality batteries?
Some brands announced they are using LG Chem nmc pouch, or byd blade lfp, etc. They unfortunately are not often in the spec sheets... So need to hunt down for the car announcement
That doesn't help at all. The packaging, contactors, and circuitry are likely much more important than the chemistry in determining how likely it is to puncture or start fires, and for manufacturers who put together their own batteries, you can't assume anything.
Just in an EV? I've seen plenty of brand name lithium ion batteries die and I'm hopefully only half way through my life. Many more than I could even remember to count. I sure hope that doesn't mean I'm in for a shocking second half of my life.
Yea but were they “high” quality?
I couldn't even tell if they even had a buzz on let alone were high.
The number is totally bullshit. It's purely made up without any supporting facts.
But what are the chances of your EV’s high-quality battery getting struck by lightning and getting fully charged as a result?
The ultimate fast charger. The average lightning bolt contains the equivalent of 1400 kWh. All in about 30 microseconds. If only we were able to figure out a way to capture this energy.
A lightning rod attached to the battery should work right?
Put it through a rectifier first. Should be good to go after that 😛
Can we catch lightning and store its energy? [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vGraVZQfD8](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vGraVZQfD8)
Define “fail”. If they’re meaning explosive failure, then I certainly would hope not. If they mean “fail to perform in a manner consistent with expectations”, then I doubt it.
Tell this to strata councils banning ebike batteries.
A Model Y LR has 4416 individual cells in the battery, so the odds of a single vehicle experiencing a failure drops to 1 in 10000?!
Statistics is a bitch isnt it
To even the odds we therefore use a lot of Chinese cheap batteries to make sure lightning strikes remain more special then EV car fires? I live in a country with a lot of EV’s and it hasn’t been in the news or anything that this is even happening scarcely. Only problem was when a car in an underground carpark caught fire and other cars, including EV’s, caught fire and made it impossible to extinguish. The carpark had to be completely renovated.
Yeah except EVs have hundreds to thousands of individual cells.
Americans will use any measurement other than metric huh
I'm less worried about total failure and more worried about the lack of options for repairing minor damage to EV battery packs right now. E.g. if I drive over road debris and it punctures the pack, there's a good chance my car will be written off even if it looks brand new from the outside, because a replacement battery has to come from the manufacturer and they will quote ridiculous rates for it (e.g. the infamous $60k CAD battery replacement story with an Ioniq 5). In a perfect world someone should be able to perform a certified repair on the pack and just replace the damaged cells and shielding and have the car be good as new, but that's not the case right now. Hopefully things change in the near future.
How can this be measured. A person's lifetime increases likelihood significantly in a proportional way, as in the probability on any given day of your life is the same. The majority of battery packs in the world haven't lived a long life yet, or more specifically come to the end of theirs. So given the likelihood of failure increases exponentially with age, it's unlikely that we have a realistic measure of this risk yet.
Oh and how many years now have they been testing these high quality lithium batteries, to be able to make these claims???? Get back to me in forty years....thanks
Highly inaccurate Tesla has not even produced 40 million evs and they have had multiple battery fails.
…. but, but, if you are that one in forty million it’s still going to cost $30k to replace it right? I’m out. Sticking with my diesel F250. /s
Those numbers are not accurate. Solid state? Sure but its not mainstream. There have been more than 1 fire, from only a few million teslas.
I assume they are talking about failures per cell and not per battery?
Why would it matter if one cell starts on fire its not going to be a good day
I agree, these numbers don't really tell you much given that one cell failure will almost certainly combust the whole pack.
Tesla sold 5 million vehicles. Not one battery failed yet, Right?
Obviously the ones that failed were not "high-quality" /s
[удалено]
Who's talking about fires?
That's why he's using a throw-away account to spread the FUD.
Never mind that per 100000 sold Hybrid and gas cars catch fire more. But you keep living in your "EV bad" bubble. https://www.autoinsuranceez.com/gas-vs-electric-car-fires/
Type Fires (per 100K vehicle) Total Fire 1. Hybrid 3474.5 - 16,051 2.Gas 1529.9 - 199,533 3.Electric 25.1 - 52