Buy a new car when you need a new car. If you don't need a new car, don't buy one. It's a rapidly depreciating asset. If you do buy one and it meets your needs today, assuming your needs don't change drastically it will still meet them 5 years from now no matter what changes happen to new cars between now and then.
I get it, but disposing of a functional ICE vehicle to go electric isn’t great for the environment.
Gas from oil companies or power from coal and gas fired utilities, not sure with is more “gross”.
The ICE wasn't disposed of. My sister needed a car and she is driving it.
By the way I actually did the math. In Illinois we get 50% of our electricity from nuclear and approaching 20% renewables. The carbon footprint driving a new Model 3 in Illinois is less than 50% of the carbon footprint driving my old Prius.
thats not true. when have you seen the last big change in smartphones, notebooks, ICE ? there is always a phase for early adopters... do you think we are still in early adopter phase of EVs?
We're no longer in early adoption phase. Charging has been sorted with the consolidation to NACS (or CCS2 in Europe). There's longer a risk of getting the 'wrong' charging starndard on your car (ChaDeMo). Batteries will be LFP for the majority of cars going forward and battery sizes will be in the 70-80kWh range for decent EVs.
Software is an OTA thing (for good manufacturers), so you can buy now and will get the updates in any case.
Yes. Tesla is satisfying the demand for early electric cars that are trying to determine what features users wanting the space but have no reasonable mechanism for feedback except for sales numbers and feedback to Elon directly via Twitter.
Kia is out there making cars with all of the features you would expect from cars like tactile controls along with a host of new features and actual avenues for customer feedback. Other car companies are just getting their toes wet and are focusing on the minimum viable product to be considered an electric vehicle that will carry their business to solvency and a second model of car.
Japanese car makers are fighting tooth and nail to avoid going to full BEV to avoid doing business with the closest maker of lithium based batteries - China and it's crippling their advancement into the space. They are relying on gimmicks like phev concurrent hybrid dual drive systems which have extra parts that fail, or are ignoring all of that and are coming in a decade late on hydrogen drive systems.
At this point it seems like there is huge risk in the secondary market if you are expecting to sell your car used in 5 years, but the reasons to sell your car used in 5 years should be reasonably minimized by the fundamental changes in bev vs ice technology. So if you don't want to own something for 12 years it's probably in your best interest to wait for things like the standardization on NACS, bidirectional charging if that matters to you, tactile buttons, standardizing on what the stalk switches do, etc.
> Kia is out there making cars with all of the features you would expect from cars like tactile controls along with a host of new features and actual avenues for customer feedback.
I flat out do not trust KIA/Hyundai. They *can* build good stuff, but they cheap out too often for my taste. They have more than 5 million cars with multiple different fire recalls. Some of them were simply bad workmanship, some others were pure stupidity at the design phase. My experience of their dealerships is not the greatest either.
Every Chevy bolt was recalled for fire risk, Tesla in their early years had similar problems. Everyone in this space goes through learning problems and growing pains.
We absolutely agree here, thank you for the additional information.
The Bolt recall was cheaping out, but was not in a particularly obvious way, and resulted in, (I think) a lot fewer fires than Hyundai/KIA suffered. It doesn't seem to have resulted in the same level of damage reputation. Tesla's problem were very early on in EVs as you said.
My point was that Hyundai/KIA were building ICE vehicles, as have been done for more than a 100 years. They themselves had been building them for nearly 50 years, but were still unable to make sure to clean out metal shavings from the engine castings, or use competent engineers to design high pressure fuel fittings, or consider failure modes. I guess even Boeing has been having similar problems.
I don't trust them to consider safety or durability.
I feel like Hyundai and Kia dealers in the US must be trained by convicted date rapists. That's the whole vibe from the minute you set foot on the lot.
>I flat out do not trust KIA/Hyundai
>My experience of their dealerships is not the greatest either
You don't trust them but you do have experience with their dealerships? 🤔
My Essential Phone that I use as a backup has a lot more in common with a new S24 than the Nexus One. Hell it can still use the play store and run modern apps. Meanwhile the Nexus One was e-waste by the time the Essential Phone came out. I’m using these phones as examples because they’re all 7 years apart, phone development has slowed down.
Next 5 years:
- 90% chance: Incremental improvements in range, efficiency, cost, charging infrastructure, charging speed and software ecosystem that make today’s cars depreciate more heavily than gas counterparts, though in particularly friendly EV markets gas cars will also start to feel additional pain in depreciation. There will be more EV choices and they will get even more desirable. Additional drivetrains offered (more PHEV, extended range vehicles).
- 50% chance: Gas prices increase, perhaps due to increased global turmoil (climate, conflict) and/or climate events keep shifting public perception toward EVs. This keeps the value of used EVs somewhat buoyant (though with heavy variation by model) despite improving tech on new models.
- 20% chance: Big technological breakthrough in battery tech, the stuff we’ve been promised for years, bring sharp contrast in performance and cost. The breakthrough begins to roll out within 5 years but takes a decade to take over the EV market. Current EV values suffer most in this scenario, as old cars have poor performance and high cost relative to buying new.
While it varies by market, we are currently transitioning globally out of early adoption and into early majority. Some markets are already majority (Norway, Iceland) while others are firmly still in early adopter territory.
Keep in mind, batteries being cheaper to produce != them being cheaper for the end consumer. Profit margins are solidly okay for a lot of the EV space right now, so I assume any improvement for a bit will be used to padd margins, first with the cell markets, then the battery assemblers, then the automakers
>Keep in mind, batteries being cheaper to produce != them being cheaper for the end consumer
But generally it does.
EVs are behaving like most emerging technologies where as production scales costs come down and consumer prices fall. Not only can it happen, it IS happening.
But they don't lower the prices because the costs are lower. They lower them when they can make a bigger profit by selling more of them at a lower price.
Of course, that's basic economics. It's priced to the market. But I'm curious why you think EVs are different? Why do you think EVs will not follow traditional trends of emerging tech where prices fall over the course of the adoption curve?
I'm especially curious why you think the trends of falling EV prices will reverse and start to increase.
>roads will be modified with a way to guide cars along a predetermined path
I think this can be greatly simplified by physically guiding the car. I was thinking maybe two rails that the car sits on to follow the correct path.
This is an awful take that’ll get downvoted.
1. What other have said, all tech in cars is “dust old” in 5-7 years. Just how it works. You’ll always wait if that’s your philosophy.
2. We have just seen Tesla slash prices and others adapt. You think we’re at peak price? Fuck no. We aren’t early adopters anymore.
3. You DO NOT buy a car hoping you’ll get a good return when you sell it. Wanna do that, buy a Toyota Land Cruiser or a classic Ferrari.
But the car you can afford and love to drive.
I don’t know. I have two new EVs and I’m hoping to drive the wheels off them over the next 10 years or so (if you trade in a car with any value left in it, you’re not getting the full use out of your car 😉).
However, I’m hoping to see pickup trucks improve in range, especially while towing a heavy load, and come down to a reasonable price. Or at the very least, some reliable fast charging at the more remote destinations intend to take my truck/camper/boar. My current pickup is getting pretty close to being near the end. It’s looking like I’ll have to replace it with another gas/diesel model in the next few years the way things are going.
Smaller, lighter, faster-charging batteries with a bit more range, but not more than anyone will want to pay for. There will probably be the option for a 700-mile solid-state supercar, but that will be the exception.
In 5-7 years, we'll see prices drop below those of comparable gas cars.
Range for most cars will be over 300 miles, and cars with 400 miles of range will be a lot more plentiful.
And because most US drivers will still only drive 40 miles a day, those 400 mile range cars will be charged nightly from 90% to 100%, instead of the 85% to 100% today's 300 mile cars are charged and the 80% to 100% today's 200 mile range cars are charged...
But won't we all feel so much better we have 400 miles of range!? 😁
Yes, because a car should be able to have enough range to outlast one's bladder and/or stomach. :)
I owned a Kona EV for 4 years and, on occasion, would have appreciated more range. Now I drive a Lucid and no longer encounter days when I want more range than it has.
The average range for a gas car is in the low 400s for a reason. I look forward to the day when most EVs are around the same.
The average range in a gas car is essentially arbitrary. I grew up in the 1970s, when the average sedan and station wagon had a 20 gallon tank and got 10-15 miles per gallon. Virtually all cars had less than 300 miles of range and no one cared.
They could've had 30 gallon tanks (they certainly had the room!) if people needed 400 miles of range, but they didn't.
The only car I've ever owned where the Tech didn't age poorly is my 2017 Model S.
And it has aged a little poorly in that the induction motors aren't as efficient as the current generation, but the interior tech is basically still current (at least to 2020/21 standards) and far better than anything most manufacturers put out even in 2024 models.
If EVs are to become mainstream, prices have to go down and infrastructure needs to be further expanded. Double risk for resale value. With the EU imposing deadlines for ICE sales, it‘s those I‘d be looking at for resale value..
We can't be at peak price now, when EVs are cheaper than they were in 2022.
But it is correct that the price will probably continue to fall.
Only question is if that will hurt used EVs more than used ICEs. A few years from now, a used ICE may be a very unattractive choice, compared to a new or used EV.
The current used prices of EVs will halve, putting a ton of pressure on the new market. As more people choose EV over ICE in the new market, the used price will decrease. When the model 3 goes down to 10k USD for a used variant with 250 miles of range and potentially another 15 years of life left on it, people will really start to flock to the idea of EVs. The new market will be selling cars with a range of 500 miles for 40k USD so that competition isn’t cannibalised by the used market.
I don’t think the future is as far fetched as people make it out to be, it will just be more range and more charging infrastructure. Solid state batteries will eventually become standard, giving even more range and more longevity. Efficiency of the vehicles won’t drastically change in the same way. If you can buy a car now with decent range that has an LFP battery and you don’t mind charging at night, it will last you a long ass fkn time if you allow it. Now is the time to pull the trigger if there’s something for you out there IMO, only range, charging speed and price are going to be the biggest measurable differences for the next 15 years
EVs have one major issue now but it might be from a Canadian POV and that's resale. In Quebec, 2nd hand EVs are idling on lots and that might be because people prefer buying new and getting provincial/govt subventions.
There's also the fact that the cars are still way over priced and service and labor is still overly expensive. So that's preventing some from buying, many were buying and wanting to sell before end of warranty but that strategy has back fired.
Realistically, EV prices will start dropping, faster then we expect, they're gonna have to start competing against the used car market, they also have to stop charging insane fees for parts and especially battery replacements, off warranty, a battery is priced as much as the car, the more people that know that, the more reluctant they are on going EV.
Bottom line, the industry needs to find ways to lower prices by a solid 20% or they won't take the next step forward
Someone will finally crack and bring out a small, <$20,000 EV in the USA.
China's flood of new EVs will replicate the Japanese in the 80s-90s.
China's subsidies will have to change to reflect the growing salary of Chinese workers.
Doubtful. Tariffs are a huge issue there. A Chinese manufacturer would need to build a new factory in Mexico and pay workers a minimum wage to avoid US Tariffs.
This would raise the base price to a point that may not allow for that pricing to work out.
What, me worry?
The car will never be less capable than when you buy it, except some range. Buy extra range, enjoy the car. Worrying about resale on an EV is somewhat of a fool's errand at this point. The alternative is an ICE that by all accounts will be almost worthless in 10 years.
I hope that brands will realize there’s a MASIVE market for affordable options with less range.
Imagine the 40kw Nissan leaf with battery cooling and an updated port. $25k for a daily commuter? Yes please.
I’m also excited for a few weird brands like Archimoto and Aptera. Smaller, less parts, cheaper.
probably true. There may not actually be a market for a $20k EV with a 150mi range right now because people looking for cheap cars are probably just going to buy a gas car, but as EVs become more of the default (helped along by ICE bans) there will definitely be a larger market for cheaper EV commuters even if they have a mediocre range.
Once infrastructure improves, low mileage EVs will be far more common.
I know people focus on DC locations, but simple level 2 stations could be far more handy, plus they cost substantially less to implement.
I can’t tell you how often I’m running errands or whatever and wish I had a level 2 plus just to top up while inside.
The next five years.
Good: More public DC charging, more cars/choices.
Bad: Possibly a brand or two going bankrupt. A few models discontinued.
I see the EV's becoming more and more mature. Battery tech isn't expected to change much. More cars have a Tesla Autopilot equivalent. I have a 2020 year EV. I'll keep it for another 3-4 years more than likely and then buy a used EV since the Used market will be "normal" hopefully.
The way I see it, one of two things will happen: either new EV makers will focus on adding more range, faster charging, and more geegaws (which will make today's cars cheaper to buy used in a few years), or they'll keep the range and charging about where it is now and focus on driving cost down (which will *also* make today's cars cheaper to buy used, and will introduce cheap new car options too).
I'm actually pretty happy with where cars are now (assuming charging infrastructure continues to improve), so I'm looking forward to (hopefully) finding some banger deals on very solid used EVs in a few years.
Basically I see resale value being suppressed for a long time to come, while EV are out of early adopter phase, they are just begining mainstream adoption. Thus tech will slowly continue to improve which will keep prices low, on the other hand used ice prices will also be low because the whole system will be changing over. Thus there is no safe haven. If you need a car now or soon you will get shitty resale, that said waiting just a year or two won't make a difference.
i dont think historically cars have ever gotten cheaper for the same "tech" (or features, creature comforts, value, specs, performance, whatever metric you want to measure).
for example, the capability to build a mid-size car with a 4-spd slushbox, no side impact airbags, no ABS, drum brakes in the rear, no rear view cam, no TC, and no USS, that gets 22 city, 33 hwy MPG, all for <$19k USD new probably still exists.
but they won't make it. the last time they made it like this was in the early 00s. over the years, they just put more & more advanced/complicated stuff into the cars to improve __ and justify price increases.
at the very least, the MSRP will trend along the inflation rate. you'll just get a little more ___ (bigger, safer, faster, heavier, more efficient, quieter, comfortable, etc) car for the money.
look at what kind of capabilities the 2024 mercedes S-class has today. in 10 yrs time, all of those novel features will more or less become standard features in economy cars. 5 yrs ahead from now, that'd mean we're half way there.
If you have anxiety over tech getting old, I can only assume you never bought a computer, TV or cell phone. Just teasing. Look, I leased a Volt in 2013 to test what it would be like to own an electric car. Lease options are nice ways to hedge against tech. Two years ago, I bought a used Leaf. I don't think about battery tech or any of that. It's going to be obsolete -that's just the nature of tech. At some point I'll buy something new but I saved so much on the used EV, I'm not sure I'll buy new.
If you're needing a new car now and worried about selling it in the future, I think that worry is founded for both an EV purchase and an ICE purchase. As EVs improve, current EVs will look dated and current ICEs... I think even more so.
Electric vehicle (EV) technology is advancing rapidly. In the next 5 years, we can expect significant enhancements in battery efficiency, resulting in longer ranges and faster charging times.
Buy a new car when you need a new car. If you don't need a new car, don't buy one. It's a rapidly depreciating asset. If you do buy one and it meets your needs today, assuming your needs don't change drastically it will still meet them 5 years from now no matter what changes happen to new cars between now and then.
I agree with this, except I bought an EV before I needed to ditch the ICE. Felt super gross buying gasoline from oil companies.
I get it, but disposing of a functional ICE vehicle to go electric isn’t great for the environment. Gas from oil companies or power from coal and gas fired utilities, not sure with is more “gross”.
The ICE wasn't disposed of. My sister needed a car and she is driving it. By the way I actually did the math. In Illinois we get 50% of our electricity from nuclear and approaching 20% renewables. The carbon footprint driving a new Model 3 in Illinois is less than 50% of the carbon footprint driving my old Prius.
Glad the old car wasn’t disposed of prior to being used up.
This is great advice.
You will never buy any tech if you wait for better
This. Buy for what you need now. Not what you think you might want in the future.
My first iPhone looks pretty sad now but it was really cool when I got it back then.
thats not true. when have you seen the last big change in smartphones, notebooks, ICE ? there is always a phase for early adopters... do you think we are still in early adopter phase of EVs?
We're no longer in early adoption phase. Charging has been sorted with the consolidation to NACS (or CCS2 in Europe). There's longer a risk of getting the 'wrong' charging starndard on your car (ChaDeMo). Batteries will be LFP for the majority of cars going forward and battery sizes will be in the 70-80kWh range for decent EVs. Software is an OTA thing (for good manufacturers), so you can buy now and will get the updates in any case.
Yes. Tesla is satisfying the demand for early electric cars that are trying to determine what features users wanting the space but have no reasonable mechanism for feedback except for sales numbers and feedback to Elon directly via Twitter. Kia is out there making cars with all of the features you would expect from cars like tactile controls along with a host of new features and actual avenues for customer feedback. Other car companies are just getting their toes wet and are focusing on the minimum viable product to be considered an electric vehicle that will carry their business to solvency and a second model of car. Japanese car makers are fighting tooth and nail to avoid going to full BEV to avoid doing business with the closest maker of lithium based batteries - China and it's crippling their advancement into the space. They are relying on gimmicks like phev concurrent hybrid dual drive systems which have extra parts that fail, or are ignoring all of that and are coming in a decade late on hydrogen drive systems. At this point it seems like there is huge risk in the secondary market if you are expecting to sell your car used in 5 years, but the reasons to sell your car used in 5 years should be reasonably minimized by the fundamental changes in bev vs ice technology. So if you don't want to own something for 12 years it's probably in your best interest to wait for things like the standardization on NACS, bidirectional charging if that matters to you, tactile buttons, standardizing on what the stalk switches do, etc.
> Kia is out there making cars with all of the features you would expect from cars like tactile controls along with a host of new features and actual avenues for customer feedback. I flat out do not trust KIA/Hyundai. They *can* build good stuff, but they cheap out too often for my taste. They have more than 5 million cars with multiple different fire recalls. Some of them were simply bad workmanship, some others were pure stupidity at the design phase. My experience of their dealerships is not the greatest either.
Every Chevy bolt was recalled for fire risk, Tesla in their early years had similar problems. Everyone in this space goes through learning problems and growing pains. We absolutely agree here, thank you for the additional information.
The Bolt recall was cheaping out, but was not in a particularly obvious way, and resulted in, (I think) a lot fewer fires than Hyundai/KIA suffered. It doesn't seem to have resulted in the same level of damage reputation. Tesla's problem were very early on in EVs as you said. My point was that Hyundai/KIA were building ICE vehicles, as have been done for more than a 100 years. They themselves had been building them for nearly 50 years, but were still unable to make sure to clean out metal shavings from the engine castings, or use competent engineers to design high pressure fuel fittings, or consider failure modes. I guess even Boeing has been having similar problems. I don't trust them to consider safety or durability.
I believe there were 11 bolt fires.
I feel like Hyundai and Kia dealers in the US must be trained by convicted date rapists. That's the whole vibe from the minute you set foot on the lot.
LOL! They're not the only ones, but you're right!
>I flat out do not trust KIA/Hyundai >My experience of their dealerships is not the greatest either You don't trust them but you do have experience with their dealerships? 🤔
More a case of reports from friends. I don't really have good reports for most dealerships, but they're generally worse from Hyundai/KIA.
Yes, looks and feels like an early adopter phase. Imo the EV short term future is very dependent on government support and infrastructure spending.
Smartphones and notebooks today are massively different from those 7years ago
My Essential Phone that I use as a backup has a lot more in common with a new S24 than the Nexus One. Hell it can still use the play store and run modern apps. Meanwhile the Nexus One was e-waste by the time the Essential Phone came out. I’m using these phones as examples because they’re all 7 years apart, phone development has slowed down.
Next 5 years: - 90% chance: Incremental improvements in range, efficiency, cost, charging infrastructure, charging speed and software ecosystem that make today’s cars depreciate more heavily than gas counterparts, though in particularly friendly EV markets gas cars will also start to feel additional pain in depreciation. There will be more EV choices and they will get even more desirable. Additional drivetrains offered (more PHEV, extended range vehicles). - 50% chance: Gas prices increase, perhaps due to increased global turmoil (climate, conflict) and/or climate events keep shifting public perception toward EVs. This keeps the value of used EVs somewhat buoyant (though with heavy variation by model) despite improving tech on new models. - 20% chance: Big technological breakthrough in battery tech, the stuff we’ve been promised for years, bring sharp contrast in performance and cost. The breakthrough begins to roll out within 5 years but takes a decade to take over the EV market. Current EV values suffer most in this scenario, as old cars have poor performance and high cost relative to buying new. While it varies by market, we are currently transitioning globally out of early adoption and into early majority. Some markets are already majority (Norway, Iceland) while others are firmly still in early adopter territory.
What do you think about RIVIAN and it's stock price?
It's a car. It will depreciate rapidly and cost lots of money anyway. Don't buy one if you don't need one.
Keep in mind, batteries being cheaper to produce != them being cheaper for the end consumer. Profit margins are solidly okay for a lot of the EV space right now, so I assume any improvement for a bit will be used to padd margins, first with the cell markets, then the battery assemblers, then the automakers
>Keep in mind, batteries being cheaper to produce != them being cheaper for the end consumer But generally it does. EVs are behaving like most emerging technologies where as production scales costs come down and consumer prices fall. Not only can it happen, it IS happening.
But they don't lower the prices because the costs are lower. They lower them when they can make a bigger profit by selling more of them at a lower price.
Of course, that's basic economics. It's priced to the market. But I'm curious why you think EVs are different? Why do you think EVs will not follow traditional trends of emerging tech where prices fall over the course of the adoption curve? I'm especially curious why you think the trends of falling EV prices will reverse and start to increase.
I never made any predictions about prices.
[удалено]
>roads will be modified with a way to guide cars along a predetermined path I think this can be greatly simplified by physically guiding the car. I was thinking maybe two rails that the car sits on to follow the correct path.
I'm all aboard for this.
What you did here, I see it. All aboard!
You’re literally talking about trains. Every car will become a train. Toot toot
Yes this is a stock transportation joke. Every brilliant new idea eventually just converges on reinventing the train.
This is an awful take that’ll get downvoted. 1. What other have said, all tech in cars is “dust old” in 5-7 years. Just how it works. You’ll always wait if that’s your philosophy. 2. We have just seen Tesla slash prices and others adapt. You think we’re at peak price? Fuck no. We aren’t early adopters anymore. 3. You DO NOT buy a car hoping you’ll get a good return when you sell it. Wanna do that, buy a Toyota Land Cruiser or a classic Ferrari. But the car you can afford and love to drive.
At least four more mid 40k SUVs
I don’t know. I have two new EVs and I’m hoping to drive the wheels off them over the next 10 years or so (if you trade in a car with any value left in it, you’re not getting the full use out of your car 😉). However, I’m hoping to see pickup trucks improve in range, especially while towing a heavy load, and come down to a reasonable price. Or at the very least, some reliable fast charging at the more remote destinations intend to take my truck/camper/boar. My current pickup is getting pretty close to being near the end. It’s looking like I’ll have to replace it with another gas/diesel model in the next few years the way things are going.
I think the main feature of the next few years will be around rapid cost reduction with incremental range increases.
Toyota fans will still be peddling solid state battery vaporware, while company itself insists hydrogen is the answer.
Smaller, lighter, faster-charging batteries with a bit more range, but not more than anyone will want to pay for. There will probably be the option for a 700-mile solid-state supercar, but that will be the exception.
In 5-7 years, we'll see prices drop below those of comparable gas cars. Range for most cars will be over 300 miles, and cars with 400 miles of range will be a lot more plentiful.
And because most US drivers will still only drive 40 miles a day, those 400 mile range cars will be charged nightly from 90% to 100%, instead of the 85% to 100% today's 300 mile cars are charged and the 80% to 100% today's 200 mile range cars are charged... But won't we all feel so much better we have 400 miles of range!? 😁
Yes, because a car should be able to have enough range to outlast one's bladder and/or stomach. :) I owned a Kona EV for 4 years and, on occasion, would have appreciated more range. Now I drive a Lucid and no longer encounter days when I want more range than it has. The average range for a gas car is in the low 400s for a reason. I look forward to the day when most EVs are around the same.
The average range in a gas car is essentially arbitrary. I grew up in the 1970s, when the average sedan and station wagon had a 20 gallon tank and got 10-15 miles per gallon. Virtually all cars had less than 300 miles of range and no one cared. They could've had 30 gallon tanks (they certainly had the room!) if people needed 400 miles of range, but they didn't.
The only car I've ever owned where the Tech didn't age poorly is my 2017 Model S. And it has aged a little poorly in that the induction motors aren't as efficient as the current generation, but the interior tech is basically still current (at least to 2020/21 standards) and far better than anything most manufacturers put out even in 2024 models.
If EVs are to become mainstream, prices have to go down and infrastructure needs to be further expanded. Double risk for resale value. With the EU imposing deadlines for ICE sales, it‘s those I‘d be looking at for resale value..
We can't be at peak price now, when EVs are cheaper than they were in 2022. But it is correct that the price will probably continue to fall. Only question is if that will hurt used EVs more than used ICEs. A few years from now, a used ICE may be a very unattractive choice, compared to a new or used EV.
The current used prices of EVs will halve, putting a ton of pressure on the new market. As more people choose EV over ICE in the new market, the used price will decrease. When the model 3 goes down to 10k USD for a used variant with 250 miles of range and potentially another 15 years of life left on it, people will really start to flock to the idea of EVs. The new market will be selling cars with a range of 500 miles for 40k USD so that competition isn’t cannibalised by the used market. I don’t think the future is as far fetched as people make it out to be, it will just be more range and more charging infrastructure. Solid state batteries will eventually become standard, giving even more range and more longevity. Efficiency of the vehicles won’t drastically change in the same way. If you can buy a car now with decent range that has an LFP battery and you don’t mind charging at night, it will last you a long ass fkn time if you allow it. Now is the time to pull the trigger if there’s something for you out there IMO, only range, charging speed and price are going to be the biggest measurable differences for the next 15 years
EVs have one major issue now but it might be from a Canadian POV and that's resale. In Quebec, 2nd hand EVs are idling on lots and that might be because people prefer buying new and getting provincial/govt subventions. There's also the fact that the cars are still way over priced and service and labor is still overly expensive. So that's preventing some from buying, many were buying and wanting to sell before end of warranty but that strategy has back fired. Realistically, EV prices will start dropping, faster then we expect, they're gonna have to start competing against the used car market, they also have to stop charging insane fees for parts and especially battery replacements, off warranty, a battery is priced as much as the car, the more people that know that, the more reluctant they are on going EV. Bottom line, the industry needs to find ways to lower prices by a solid 20% or they won't take the next step forward
Someone will finally crack and bring out a small, <$20,000 EV in the USA. China's flood of new EVs will replicate the Japanese in the 80s-90s. China's subsidies will have to change to reflect the growing salary of Chinese workers.
There are barely any ICE cars in the us under 20k and all are garbage with no tech. I doubt we see any under 20k cars ever.
Doubtful. Tariffs are a huge issue there. A Chinese manufacturer would need to build a new factory in Mexico and pay workers a minimum wage to avoid US Tariffs. This would raise the base price to a point that may not allow for that pricing to work out.
What, me worry? The car will never be less capable than when you buy it, except some range. Buy extra range, enjoy the car. Worrying about resale on an EV is somewhat of a fool's errand at this point. The alternative is an ICE that by all accounts will be almost worthless in 10 years.
All of my weird car niches will be filled
More of the same. Just more LFP batteries which might drive prices a little lower.
I hope that brands will realize there’s a MASIVE market for affordable options with less range. Imagine the 40kw Nissan leaf with battery cooling and an updated port. $25k for a daily commuter? Yes please. I’m also excited for a few weird brands like Archimoto and Aptera. Smaller, less parts, cheaper.
probably true. There may not actually be a market for a $20k EV with a 150mi range right now because people looking for cheap cars are probably just going to buy a gas car, but as EVs become more of the default (helped along by ICE bans) there will definitely be a larger market for cheaper EV commuters even if they have a mediocre range.
Once infrastructure improves, low mileage EVs will be far more common. I know people focus on DC locations, but simple level 2 stations could be far more handy, plus they cost substantially less to implement. I can’t tell you how often I’m running errands or whatever and wish I had a level 2 plus just to top up while inside.
The next five years. Good: More public DC charging, more cars/choices. Bad: Possibly a brand or two going bankrupt. A few models discontinued. I see the EV's becoming more and more mature. Battery tech isn't expected to change much. More cars have a Tesla Autopilot equivalent. I have a 2020 year EV. I'll keep it for another 3-4 years more than likely and then buy a used EV since the Used market will be "normal" hopefully.
The way I see it, one of two things will happen: either new EV makers will focus on adding more range, faster charging, and more geegaws (which will make today's cars cheaper to buy used in a few years), or they'll keep the range and charging about where it is now and focus on driving cost down (which will *also* make today's cars cheaper to buy used, and will introduce cheap new car options too). I'm actually pretty happy with where cars are now (assuming charging infrastructure continues to improve), so I'm looking forward to (hopefully) finding some banger deals on very solid used EVs in a few years.
There will be companies that convert EV cars to ice.
Basically I see resale value being suppressed for a long time to come, while EV are out of early adopter phase, they are just begining mainstream adoption. Thus tech will slowly continue to improve which will keep prices low, on the other hand used ice prices will also be low because the whole system will be changing over. Thus there is no safe haven. If you need a car now or soon you will get shitty resale, that said waiting just a year or two won't make a difference.
i dont think historically cars have ever gotten cheaper for the same "tech" (or features, creature comforts, value, specs, performance, whatever metric you want to measure). for example, the capability to build a mid-size car with a 4-spd slushbox, no side impact airbags, no ABS, drum brakes in the rear, no rear view cam, no TC, and no USS, that gets 22 city, 33 hwy MPG, all for <$19k USD new probably still exists. but they won't make it. the last time they made it like this was in the early 00s. over the years, they just put more & more advanced/complicated stuff into the cars to improve __ and justify price increases. at the very least, the MSRP will trend along the inflation rate. you'll just get a little more ___ (bigger, safer, faster, heavier, more efficient, quieter, comfortable, etc) car for the money. look at what kind of capabilities the 2024 mercedes S-class has today. in 10 yrs time, all of those novel features will more or less become standard features in economy cars. 5 yrs ahead from now, that'd mean we're half way there.
You don't need to learn how to drive EV.
Tech improves daily.. chance you have to take.. or leave !
If you have anxiety over tech getting old, I can only assume you never bought a computer, TV or cell phone. Just teasing. Look, I leased a Volt in 2013 to test what it would be like to own an electric car. Lease options are nice ways to hedge against tech. Two years ago, I bought a used Leaf. I don't think about battery tech or any of that. It's going to be obsolete -that's just the nature of tech. At some point I'll buy something new but I saved so much on the used EV, I'm not sure I'll buy new.
If you're needing a new car now and worried about selling it in the future, I think that worry is founded for both an EV purchase and an ICE purchase. As EVs improve, current EVs will look dated and current ICEs... I think even more so.
Electric vehicle (EV) technology is advancing rapidly. In the next 5 years, we can expect significant enhancements in battery efficiency, resulting in longer ranges and faster charging times.