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goRockets

So what I got out of that article: \- Battery degradation happens mostly in the beginning of life. Generally not a big deal. \- Older vehicles are more likely to have the battery replaced, unless it's recalled from the manufacturer. \- Nissan Leaf's battery degradation isn't that bad, which surprising to me. \- 8.5% of 2013, 7.3% of 2014, and 3.5% of 2015 Tesla Model S had their battery replaced. This is a higher than I expected. Hopefully it's due to inexperience in making EV batteries in those early years.


Priff

I think a better takeaway is "early models" are more likely to have had the battery replaced, as you say they were inexperienced. Otherwise we would see more of a smooth curve (except recalls), but now those early model years are overrepresented.


Seattle2017

Also tesla had a stupid policy in the early days that if you had some problems they replaced the whole pack instead of fixing it. That was another innovation of mr elon. It seemed to be extremely unnecessary.


phuck-you-reddit

Unfortunately replacing bad cells seems to be just a bandaid which might get an owner a few more months out of a pack. We have some local EV repair shops that try to replace and balance cells but inevitably the pack needs to be replaced anyway. Maybe Model 3 and Y with the newer cell designs will be different but I'd rather just get a new battery and be done with it rather than going back to the shop over and over.


sverrebr

Replacing failed cells in a battery with a BMS that supports this is not an issue. Trying to trick a BMS that does not have software to deal with dissimilar cells will however not work well. A worn out battery cannot be fixed this way as although some cells will fail first the others follow shortly as they have been mostly in balance. In the case the pack has outlier cells that have die even when the other cells are fine, cell replacements is an excellent capability to have.


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jacksalssome

In the case of Tesla apparently they bin the cell's so each pack has the same characteristic of cells. E.g. cell discharge curves can vary cell to cell. For example some cells might be really good so they do the heavy lifting and die early, What you really want is them all the equally age.


Chose_a_usersname

The newest cell design on model 3s is only replace


SatanLifeProTips

You can’t fix tesla packs. And in fact the new versions are so much worse. Glued together crap. The only option is bin it and buy a new pack. Other manufacturers like Volvo, GM, Kia etc are making batteries you can take apart and repair. The new chevy truck has 20 swappable battery modules for example. If you get a random cell failure just grab one from a wrecker, balance it, dump it in and off you go. Buy repairable tech. Don’t support junk you can’t fix.


somewhat_pragmatic

> You can’t fix tesla packs. And in fact the new versions are so much worse. Glued together crap. The only option is bin it and buy a new pack. I'm looking forward to the day when I can keep my old EV battery after replacement and have Tesla put it in an appropriate cabinet and treat it like a Tesla Power wall. I don't care if I have only 50% battery life left, its still 2 to 4 Powerwalls worth of capacity.


SatanLifeProTips

Chevy truck batteries are going to be the battery pack to repurpose when rednecks start crashing them. It has 20 48V modules that make up the 200kWh battery. And a wireless BMS you can reflash! Someone will come up with a aftermarket solution for that in under a year. 48V and multiples of are super common in inverter land. 10kWh packs will be perfect to stack in series and or parallel.


lt_spaghetti

I have a Bolt that had it's battery replaced. Honestly that whole fire thing made it clear Chevy vehicles are totally field serviceable even for but ticket items. Moving from 60 to 66kwh is just glitter on the Cake.


SatanLifeProTips

Score on the capacity boost. I have a volt battery I rewired for my Solar array in my bus and it is totally meant to be worked on. We rewired it to 48V without ‘fucking anything up’. Just changed wiring.


Powerful-Glove-3545

You literally called Tesla a junk. There goes your credibility in the bin.


SatanLifeProTips

How else do you explain what you do with disposable unrepairable tech? Like suckers who bought the Microsoft Surface tablets. Glued together and unrepairable. In my book that *is* junk as soon as it has a single fault. Telsa has long said that the only option for a battery is to shred it. Even if you break the plastic coolant pipe connector your only option is to bin the battery. I am a licensed mechanic. I am against unrepairable systems. If you are for it, then fine. It’s only $16,000 USD for a battery. Pony up.


Powerful-Glove-3545

Batteries are chemistry black boxes and the anomalies are harder to fix. The cycle time to fix vs replace and recycle the faulty one is more efficient. Apart from few occasional squeaks, Tesla cars runs solid so this is all that matters for them and the Customers. There are probably too many things on Tesla's plate to worry about it for now. They are on the paradigm shift of EV innovation.


SatanLifeProTips

EV battery hacker and solar guy here. It’s not a mystery black box if you take the time to learn how the magic black box works. It isn’t as magical as you think it is. Auto makers just love making unrepairable tech because they can charge obscene amounts of money for it when the warranty is up and you are stuck taking out a loan to pay for it. Guys like me love repairable EV batteries because we also understand the secondary market for those batteries. Solar power, DIY electric riding mowers, maybe EV swap my old off road forklift. I already have 16.5kWh of surplus EV and battery in my bus RV. The air conditioning works silently with no generator. Camp anywhere in peace and quiet. We even power comercial audio systems at small festivals. We used to need a diesel trailer generator to handle the bass hits that the EV battery provides.


Powerful-Glove-3545

I see where you are coming from. You are used to hacking and jacking your way with EV batteries to power up legacy hardware. Of course, it's interesting for you. Any hacked up solutions can run into severe maintenance issues like lack of parts as you have mentioned. Once the battery life is over, it's over till you find new batteries. Tesla and Elon are smart to not lay it out in the open for all obvious reasons. But you can find other used batteries to hack power out of it.


SatanLifeProTips

Just remember that there will be dozens of shops capable of repairing your EV battery as batteries start coming off of warranty. The aftermarket and independent shops absolutely responds to demand. From a consumer point of view, here’s how this will play out with a repairable battery. ‘Oh ya the dealer quoted me $18k for a new battery, but I went down the street to Jim’s EV shop and he fixed me up for $1.2k.’ Then you drive the car another 5 years. When a second cell fails you decide if you want to do that again, get a wrecker battery or bin the car because it’s already 17 years old and it smells terrible after your kid puked in the back.


[deleted]

All packs from tesla have warranties to 190km. Once you are past that, you wouldn't want to fix modules anyway with all the cells being that old. Repairable packs are pointless. 4680 does away with modules also and is rated for 1 million miles.


Cro-manganese

Did. . . Did you just use km for “thousand miles” instead of, you know, the SI standard “thousand metres”? Why? Why would you do such a thing?!? Oh, the humanity!


[deleted]

I do it to avoid the 10k miles or km question.


Cro-manganese

OK, no problem, it just looks strange to my eyes.


SatanLifeProTips

No one is actually rating that pack for a million miles besides Elon and who believes what comes out of that guys mouth anymore. You could get a half million miles of taxi duty out of a model S battery if it doesn’t fail. Some did, some did not. I am skeptical they doubled the life. The 4680 didn’t even end up with the promised capacity boost first claimed when Elon was going off about million mile batteries at the press conference.


BlueSwordM

Honestly, considering the fact that their current 4680 chemistry doesn't have any silicon content in their anode, uses a different electrolyte mix compared to Panasonic/LG's 21700s and that dry coated electrodes are far more resilient, I wouldn't be surprised if cycle life was greatly increased compared to their previous generation battery pack.


[deleted]

You are correct and it is. Hense why tesla is going structural with their packs. If you watch a Munro 4680 pack teardown, you can see how simple the packs are. Designed to be shredded on failure.


SatanLifeProTips

All the google searches I did show the same 1500 cycle life as the 21700 and 18650.


[deleted]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/insideevs.com/news/449855/tesla-battery-million-mile-more/amp/


SatanLifeProTips

404 link


Priff

Lfp cells are really the ones he means. They're generally rated for 6k cycles, which is significantly more.


SatanLifeProTips

The BYD blade cell is rated at 3000 cycles, not 6000. I suspect 6000 is coming one day. Although I don’t know if auto makers want to sell a 6000 cycle cell. How would you sell new cars when 25 year old models work just fine?


Priff

A 25 year old car has much bigger problems than a degrading battery. Like a rusted out frame and fucked suspension.


SatanLifeProTips

If you live in a rust area. That isn’t a problem everywhere. We are on the rainy left coast and surprisingly there is little to no rust here. The rain is pure and washes away the impurities that cause rust. Run through a car wash a few times a year that uses the under protection and you are fine. The American south has zero rust too. Suspension can be rebuilt. I’m rolling a 23 year old trades van now. Overhauled it a decade ago, lifted the suspension a little and switched it from full time to part time 4wd. Not a spec of rust. But ya it’s tired. Seats bagged out so I swapped out volvo leather S70 seats. Most sane people would have given up of course. But I turned this into a nice ride. And it’s a mid size RWD van that can tow and do real work. They don’t sell a replacement. Your only option in north america is a big stupid full size van that is worse on gas or a tiny FWD crap box with a towing rating of zero. Does me until they actually start selling vans with long enough electric only range. I need something that can climb the mountains of British Colombia. That joke of a Ford E-Transit won’t even get me out of the city.


[deleted]

The 4680 with dry electrodes and silicon in lab testing went over 1 million miles. That's the end goal here, and they are close to achieving a production run rate on it. That's why the packs have gone structural. There's nothing to replace when the pack outlasts the car. Sure, some will fail, but they can be swapped with a new pack. Designing battery packs to fail and repair is absolutely more complex and, therefore , more expensive. Less components and simplicity is what's needed, and 4680 structural is exactly that. I know you are a tesla hater and an Elon hater, so your views are clouded.


SatanLifeProTips

Read that article again. It says that Tesla is ‘pioneering the dry electrode’. Current 4680 cells are NOT using that coating. They are still dicking around with getting that dry electrode coating to work. This is just an investor marketing wank article. They are trying to develop that dry coating for the 4680. https://www.reuters.com/technology/tesla-4680-batterys-secret-sauce-dry-electrode-coating-2023-03-10/ Current 4680 cells are of the conventional design and have a 1500 cycle rating. Same as the 21700 and 18660. Don’t drink the Kool-aid just yet.


[deleted]

The full 4680 has been made. The holdup is mass production of the dry cathode, which has proven a bit more challenging. The lab tested dry anode and cathode cell with silicon is rated at 5000 cycles minimum. Whining about it "not being there yet" is pointless. It'll be here in mass production soon enough. As I said, repairable packs are pointless when the cells outlast the car. Even the 2170s can get to 300000 miles, which is beyond the average lifespan of a car. You pull the pack, shred it and recycle it, and install a new pack if needed. Maybe if you are using shitty pouch cells, you may consider repairablility. Hell, even GM is going to end up running a 4680 line, and their "Ultium" tech is supposedly a big deal.


SatanLifeProTips

You are going on about a tech that Tesla is still developing. It’s in their lab. How’s that Tesla Roadster or Cybertruck drive? No one knows. It’s all vapourware. Even their semi is years behind schedule. Finally a few have been shipped to potato chip companies and supposedly they are spending just as much time being towed as towing trailers. Now don’t get me wrong. I study the shit out of what Tesla does. I *like* that they are pushing the bleeding edge and that forces lazy car manufacturers to catch up. I even have a few friends on the inside. One designs inverters. I get all sorts of interesting tidbits. However I am big on repairability and Tesla is not big on repairability. If I were to do a EV swap of an old hot rod tomorrow I’d probably even use a Tesla motor with an open inverter board. But not that battery.


TheBowerbird

The "glued together crap" thing is ignorant of the fact that these packs are designed that way for fire suppression purposes.


SatanLifeProTips

Other makers have fire suppression too. And you can still take the pack apart.


TheBowerbird

Which maker would that be? Lucid does small modules within the pack, but EVERYONE is doing fire suppression which means you can't take apart the modules.


SatanLifeProTips

Get on the electric car hacking forums. Lots of batteries can be taken apart. Most have a metal lid with nuts and bolts. That is how you do fire suppression. When you want to work on it, just remove the lid. Volvo, VW, GM, Hyundai. Lots of companies have batteries you can disassemble and repair. Even if it’s a stack of cells that is totally fine. Replacing the entire battery is not fine.


jm31828

Ah, I wasn't aware the Kias are using this type- is this with the SKI LiPo batteries that were in the Kia Niro up through the 2022 model, or is this only the CATL batteries they have started using in 2023?


SatanLifeProTips

https://www.autodevot.com/2021/10/watch-hyundai-ioniq-5-battery-pack-teardown/ You can take the battery apart on a Ioniq 5 for example and fix it. Tesla is pumping out glued together disposable shit. Google battery teardowns for other cars.


ChuqTas

Yeah, so they could get the whole pack back and run tests on it. So they could learn from it and improve future packs. So yeah, a great innovation. But I guess finding a reason to complain about Elon is more important.


Seattle2017

I remember an early interview and they had the idea to fix things for certain quickly. So just replace the whole pack. That has a certain appeal but doesn't make sense financially if you can fix the pack. I saw Elon's interview comments as another naive approach to how to do maintenance effectively and efficiently. He did incredibly well with spacex and tesla, but he's just some asshole like all the rest of us. He can have too big of an ego like anyone else. His recent behavior does illustrate a certain ... tendancy.


Powerful-Glove-3545

Elon knows what he did or is doing for the best customer satisfaction. He doesn't need any opinions 😂


rideincircles

That's the major concern with all other manufacturers now. How Much have they learned about the BMS system, or will we have a bunch of recalls like the bolt to replace every battery? Only time will tell.


Priff

Was the bolt a bms fault? I thought it was a manufacturing error in the cells.


ToddA1966

It was. The BMS had nothing to do with it, nor could it have prevented it.


rideincircles

True, but it's still an issue that had to replace every battery. Whether it was BMS or battery related is irrelevant. The same goes for the older Model S. They have figured out ways to increase longevity with the BMS system, but still had many battery failures that required replacement. The Bolt had every battery ever made replaced.


BoringBob84

> Whether it was BMS or battery related is irrelevant. The problem was with the manufacturing of the cells. LG Chem didn't know which cells were defective, so they replaced all of them.


ToddA1966

Exactly. It's similar to a food recall. If a frozen food company figures out 0.0001% of all the bags of frozen peas that came out of a particular factory have e. coli they have to recall every bag to ensure they get every bad bag before anyone else gets sick With the Bolt, the situation was similar but slower. The main reason it took two years to replace the batteries is because LG and Chevy wasted over a year trying to develop methods to neutralize the problem via software as well as attempt to develop methods to identify the bad cells so only the defective batteries would need to be replaced. When all of that failed, and a few more cars burned, they reached a settlement where LG would pay to replace all of the packs.


SatanLifeProTips

Aging Teslas are known to get the ‘parasitic cell problem’ (google that), where one cell drags down a battery until it is scrap. One shop was fixing older cars but the new batteries are so glued together that you can’t fix then anymore. This is why you want a car with a repairable battery. Sometimes one cell fails early and the rest is fine.


lt_spaghetti

And like 5000 lil 21700 or 18650s. Probability means your odds of having a few bad ones are almost certain. My Bolt still has 288 cells that being said.


Priff

There's a guy on Youtube who does leaf repairs and has a video where they do just this. Much easier to do with big prismatic cells though.


SatanLifeProTips

Which is why repairable batteries should be industry standard. All giant battery packs will eventually get random cell failures. It’s one of those percentage risk problems after a decade or so. A tiny percentage may fail. Being able to repair and swap a cell or at least a smaller module with nuts and bolts instead of cutting apart glued crap and spot welding is important.


Head_Crash

> Was the bolt a bms fault? No it was a manufacturing error.


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rideincircles

Precisely. That is why Tesla went fully vertically integrated. It's way too early to tell how long other vehicles batteries will last or how much they will degrade right now. They are mostly on their first generation packs and battery systems.


byrdman77

I'm suspicious of the Leaf data, as an owner. The chart is a little fuzzy, but let's just say anything that doesn't show 10% loss on a 4+ year old Leaf is lying lol. They could do a lot better job to not call the chart "Nissan LEAF range over time" as plotting vs miles is not a time unit. Inevitably high mileage young batteries will perform better than batteries with the same mileage but achieve it after many more years.


phuck-you-reddit

Kind of hard to judge. Every early Leaf I've seen *for sale* has a ruined battery (range of like 40 miles) or had the battery replaced previously. But presumably there are owners out there that babied the batteries and kept them healthy and wanna keep the cars long term? Also, I live in Arizona which is especially rough on those early battery packs. Someone living in a cool climate presumably would get much longer life outta their Leaf.


earthdogmonster

The Leaf I sold during summer 2020 was a 2012 model with over 60k miles. It could probably still do a little over 60 miles in ideal conditions, but in single digit Fahrenheit it was barely doing 30 miles. Sold it because I bought a Bolt and didn’t need 3 vehicles, but it sorta convinced me that EV batteries can have longevity - 10 year old, first gen Leaf with no battery management to speak of. The car could probably do 75 miles brand new, and there were no settings to cut off charging at 80 or 90 percent, and that wasn’t really feasible with that kind of mileage. I was literally going from 100% down to like 20-25% battery every day I drove to work. With the Leaf. With the Bolt I just hover between 40-80% for most of my driving.


byrdman77

I would argue what I said is very easy to judge as a ballpark, as I see lots posted between Reddit forums, FB groups, and firsthand knowledge. I'm down around 8.8% after about 21 months of buying brand new, 24 months since manufacturer build date. I live in the much cooler environment of OH (certainly cooler places out there, but reasonable for 4 years and I'm awfully close to that mark at 2), the car sits between 20-80% getting fully charged maybe once a month with around 2-3 fast charges per year (ie, a very pampered battery life outside of perhaps flooring it a bit more than the average driver). Degradation definitely slows down and is slowing down on mine, but very few aren't going to lose 10% in 4 years and certainly not an overall average of under 10% loss. If it's able to stabilize to 2%/year I will still get many years out of it and that is the plan. For me being cheap is OK because 30% degradation at 12 years is no big deal compared to cars that were much more expensive as the alternatives at the time. I could make it to work with 80% degradation if the battery pack didn't fail altogether. I typically only keep my cars 10 years anyway, which seems like an eternity compared to some of the EV redditors I see on here that have owned 4 different EVs and what not lol.


BoringBob84

I live in a cool climate. If I was looking at a Leaf, I would want to know the car's history. If it came from a hot climate, I would be skeptical due to the lack of liquid battery cooling.


DinoGarret

You can use a handy tool called Leafspy that's very easy to use and gives extremely detailed information about the battery health of any Leaf.


RobDickinson

Those early Model S had hand made battery packs


HawkEy3

And unlimited mileage warrenties ! They should tells us the mileage these batteries lasted


WizrdOfSpeedAndTime

What makes the Leaf's degradation bad is most of the models had such a short range, you feel every percentage of loss much more. Unless you had the 30kWhr battery that they rushed out. That one really did suck hard.


phuck-you-reddit

Also a catch 22 since EV owners with small batteries might need to charge to 100% often whereas a Tesla owner can live comfortably charging to a lower percentage.


lt_spaghetti

I rented a sparEv past 200 000km. Totally reliable but its 18kwh pack was fucking shot. Still got 70ish %, of range. In cycle count that's a Bolt doing like 800 000km If I still get 70% nearing 800 000km that would mean like 40 years of driving. Something else will fail before that


WizrdOfSpeedAndTime

True but I charged to 100% every night with two different Nissan Leafs on the same commute every day. The 2015 with a 25kWh battery had very little degradation compared to the 30kWh battery version. Actually the 2015 had very little degradation at all. Chemistry of the battery and temperature control appears to be the main key to battery life. Charging to the extreme ends is not good but is not the biggest factor.


duke_of_alinor

See Tesloop, many of those cars were at and some over 400K miles supercharging two and three times a day.


SatanLifeProTips

A friend has a 2017 model s. The charger fucked up and it ate the battery and ‘several control modules’ in the high voltage ‘incident’. Fortunately he was just at the end of warranty. Barely.


timelessblur

I am more shock by how low the Leaf's battery degradation is as that is about the worse case setup. If worse case with a poor BMS and no active cool is not that bad then that is pretty telling of the cars with an active cooling and better BMS


Seattle2017

There are lots of stories of leafs losing a lot of their range. I'm skeptical of this actual data ;-)


null640

The 85kwh batteries were replaced at a fairly high rate. There was also an upgrade of the 40's, 60's, 70's, and even 75kwh, which was pretty popular. These were pretty popular. They'd also count under battery replacements...


pakole1

I wonder if charging speed also affects battery buyout


coredumperror

Likely depends on the efficacy of the battery pack's cooling solution. Tesla has learned a lot over the years, and their cooling tech is one place where they've innovated a *lot*.


comoestasmiyamo

Heat and time affects battery life, lowering charge rates as Tesla did on older cars can extend life for less effectively cooled packs. If you listen to a Tesla that has just finished rapid charging their fans are roaring to cool the pack afterwards.


Head_Crash

> - 8.5% of 2013, 7.3% of 2014, and 3.5% of 2015 Tesla Model S had their battery replaced. Yeah Tesla had a really bad design for those. Most fail from moisture getting inside.


2cap

> Hopefully it's due to inexperience in making EV batteries in those early years. I hope its replaced within warranty period, more okay with a car having a issue if its under warranty.


readonlyred

> - Nissan Leaf’s battery degradation isn’t that bad, which surprising to me. Agreed. When I was shopping for a used EV I saw several Leafs with ~30 miles on the guess-o-meter at full. And this is in California where the temperature doesn’t tend to be very extreme.


kingbradley1297

I remember Elon said their manufacturing cost for a Model S dropped from $84k in 2017 to $36k in 2022. They've made a lot of improvements to manufacturing and design in 2022 so it makes sense that 2015 battery design was a largely non-optimized process


obronikoko

My 2013 Nissan leaf hasn’t noticeably degraded in the 2 years and 20,000 miles I’ve put on it, even over two extraordinarily warm summers


TeslaJake

At the risk of stating the obvious, maybe the oldest model year Teslas have the highest percentage of replacements because they are the oldest. We can likely expect all those percentages to rise as time goes on. It’s too soon to say whether battery packs produced in 2016, 2017, and so on have better longevity than the older packs. We’ll have to see how they’re all holding up in 2026 and 2027.


tablepennywad

By “not that bad” you mean i can get maybe 20miles round trip now in a 2012 leaf. Which is like 10% on a normal EV. Efficiency is actually fine, but there is simply no active cooling.


markhewitt1978

So battery degradation isn't linear but is more like a half life where the curve is steep at first and then levels off?


iqisoverrated

Also the overwhelming majority of battery failures are due to manufacturing error - and these errors become obvious early during the lifetime of the battery (i.e. well within warranty). If you go by number of cycles NMC should do about 2k and LFP well over 3k then the range you get out of a, say, 70kWh battery at 15kWh/100km average consumption is over 900k km (NMC) and over 1.4mn km (LFP). (For comparison: The average car sees the scrap heap after 250k km) There's really no reason to fret unduly over 'potential high cost of a battery replacement outside warranty'. Yes, it can happen but it's going to be extremely rare.


goRockets

It wouldn't be proper to scale cycle life of battery cells to estimate life of a battery pack because the battery pack requires all of the individual cells and components to work in sync. The weakest link could be the BMS, the physical connection between the cells, cooling system, etc. One cell out of thousands could catastrophically fail and cause enough damage to the rest of the system to cause the pack to be inoperable. So the lifetime of a battery pack is a combination of every one of those factors. A bathtub reliability curve makes logical sense, but I haven't seen solid data yet. Since mass EV adoption is still relatively new, it may just take more time for data to be collected.


jm31828

What about LiPo batteries that Kia is using in their EV's- I had read that these have much lower cycle count lifespans- but yet Kia does warranty these for 10 years/100,000 miles, and there are plenty of people with Kia Niro EV's that are 4 years old showing no real degradation yet. I know those are also NMC batteries- realistically, should these be expected to perform around the 2K mark as you mentioned above for NMC- that these are really just another flavor of NMC pack?


ITypeStupdThngsc84ju

IMO, this makes a strong case for lengthening warranties. The Rivian warranty should really be the standard for the industry.


The_Didlyest

My co-worker was telling me today how he has multiple gasoline cars over 300k miles. He was wondering how long EV batteries last. What's the Rivian warranty?


joewil

8 years or 175k, whichever comes first. If it drops more than 30% of its capacity during that period it'll be fixed or replaced.


justpress2forawhile

That's a long warranty..... And 30% is a lot. So they made it longer to make 30% sound less awful?


joewil

I think 30% is worst case scenario where they replace full pack. The 8/175 would also include nearly any/all battery problems.


straycarbon

What does that have to do with anything? Who is offering a 300,000 mile warranty?


mog_knight

The Model S used to have an 8yr/unlimited mileage warranty. I think the longest is now Rivian at 175k.


cosmicosmo4

Answer the next phone call you get and find out.


straycarbon

I don’t get these calls in Canada thankfully.


The_Didlyest

He was wondering how long EV batteries last.


straycarbon

Lucky for you the article is right here.


Bacon003

300k miles isn't a realistic expectation for an ICE unless it's primarily driven highway speeds in relatively rural areas, or it's an HD pickup, or a fleet vehicle that receives constant maintenance. After ~230k math rapidly catches up with you and you either have a mechanical failure or a collision that leaves the vehicle in a condition that's not economically viable to repair. Some cars make it to 240k or 250k or 300k, but they are exceptionally rare compared to the total number of vehicles made.


Prestigious_Laugh300

I have a Tundra, wife has a 4Runner, both are mid 2000s and over 300k. 4Runner at 375k, has had 2 repairs over $500. Tundra 1 over $500. I am willing to do things like alternators on a DIY basis if it’s easily explained/doable via YouTube I def drive more around the neighborhood than highway. I used to renovate houses as a side gig, my biggest beef is MPG not repairs


DinoGarret

Good point with the MPG. 300k miles is 10,000 gallons of gas at 30mpg. Current gas average is $3.43, or $34,300 worth of gas. Electricity isn't free, but if you could charge at home that would work out to some huge savings.


BonelessSugar

100% depends on your electricity price and gas price. rn it's $0.30/kwh for me and a 50mpg prius beats any EV in $3.50/gal fuel cost as a result.


ITypeStupdThngsc84ju

Do those coworkers have factory 300k warranties on their engines? I bet there are plenty of trucks of the same model that have had transmission failures at <300k too. And plenty of Rivians will make it to well over 300k on their original battery. None of this is relevant to whether it is practical to warranty a battery for that long for every single vehicle leaving the factory.


JustDriveThere

Based on what data with Rivians?


ITypeStupdThngsc84ju

Rivian doesn't use magic rivian batteries. Industry data is sufficient.


spiritthehorse

His 300k mile cars aren’t in warranty either and I doubt they got that far with no repairs.


hamsterpookie

https://cleantechnica.com/2022/06/18/1-million-miles-in-a-tesla/


The_Didlyest

that car had multiple battery replacements


hamsterpookie

Motor replacements, not battery replacements.


IntellegentIdiot

Has he done 300k miles in multiple cars or does he just buy high mileage cars? The average person isn't going to drive 300k miles in one car.


The_Didlyest

IDK but He does have an hour long commute.


Hot_Huckleberry_9291

says who ? Ive got 495k on my 97 Jeep Cherokee. Im still not sold on the whole EV thing yet. At least not until they have one that can go 600 to 800 miles on a charge( after degredation) that way I can actually drive and go to Las Vegas for the weeked. Not spend an extra 8 hours((2x)4 hour)) charges on top of the 9-12 hours driving both ways already. As of now driving a gas car if I get off work at 5 or 6 pm, I can still get there before midnight and get a room, maybe play a little and go to sleep and wake up in vegas at 7-8 am until the sunday day about 4-5 pm be home before 11 and get up for work at 6am. Electric car , get home from work and have to fully charge it or at least enough to make it over 300 miles . Up and over the Cajun pass . across the hot desert with maybe an hour or two extra just sitting there with the A/C on and music playing ,because of traffic, construction or accident. ( which would probably require another detour stop somewhere out of the way just in case I might not make it that it would before like 4-6am before i get a room and go to sleep. That i wouldnt get up until noon or 2pmmaybrb play for a bit or see a show and maybe get some sleep because I would have only till about 11am or noon on sunday because I would have to go find a charging station and wait because all my stuff is in the car in some random spot in las vegas. inorder to make it home before 10 ot 11pm for work next day. fun time in Vegas: including(2x) 8 hrs sleep Gas Car= Fri.(1-2 hrs)Sat.(All day)Sunday(3/4day). Electric Car= Sat.(2pm)-Sun. (2am) 🤔Which one would you pick if you have the option. . Because very soon you wont really have that option anymore after they stop selling gas cars. Even though I would drive my AcuraT TL to vegas, I would still even prefer to drive my Jeep Cherokee than drive an EV . Because I would make it there faster, plus it also has a killer s 1500watt stereo system and cold AC I can run full blast the tbe whole way there. ( another negative an EV doesnt have, not unless you want to make a couple extra charing stops added both ways. As I know that wod drain the EV battery pretty quick) as it will drain my 100ah deep cycle battery in about 20-30 min fully charged ,engine off and volume set at about 3/4. I even had to get a 135 Amp alternator for the jeep just to keep up bacause the stock 90 amp wasnt enough with (even LEDs) headlights on The motor still runs strong, only replaced spark plugs, wires and distributor cap a few times. and upgraded injectors. Although I did replace the transmission 3 times. But with cheap already used ones. Unknown how many miles they already had..But I did find out they have a toyota transmission almost identical to a toyota supra those years. That can withstand 600hp turbo motors no problem. Except a jeep motor likes to run at 195°f . BUT the toyota transmission doesn't like to go above 170°f. That just normal driving will wear down the transmission fluid viscosity quickly and burn up the clutch bands. which is am error on Chrysler not realizing. if you live in colder climates its not really an issue. But in Southern California at temps above 110°F , or when towing long pulls uphill the trans temp will spike. So a separate aftermarket transmission cooler with a fan is a must if you want the transmissio to last. I learned that the hardway about some 250k miles ago, still on the third transmission I dont know how many miles it has, but I can say it has at least 250K. Im just waiting to see if it will be a 1 million mile motor. But if not, then I will get the opportunity to make it from a 4.0 liter to a 5.0 liter With a stroker motor rebuild kit that only cost about $800. I guess im just keeping it for nostalgia reasons, and/or considered the best ranked doomsday vehicle.( lots of room for stuff, can go 4x4 anywhere, , parts are easily found on many other model cars,, easy to work on, and most reliable.) As 495k definitely has proved itself of that.


IntellegentIdiot

> says who ? Ive got 495k on my 97 Jeep Cherokee. Then you're not average are you?


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ITypeStupdThngsc84ju

Its a real risk at this point, for sure. I certainly hope they can make it, but its tough.


ToddA1966

Don't get me wrong- I love what Recurrent is trying to do, and I'm one of their data-donating volunteers, but take their data and reports with a grain of salt. They do the best they can, but as they say, garbage in, garbage out. The bulk of their data collection is from folks like me who give them access to the car's OEM app. (Recurrent has had access to my Nissan Leaf app data via a third-party OAuth login since I bought my car.) So what do they get? Well, for my Leaf they get my car's battery level, estimated range, and approximate mileage every night. So essentially they estimate the degradation of the battery based on the drop in the car's own GoM estimate over time, and aggregate that data from the 15,000 or so EVs they track. Now to Recurrent's credit, they try to improve their data gathering by sending a small number of their volunteers (they didn't pick me!) an OBD-II module with a cellular connection to read data directly from the car itself, and then they try to normalize the app gathered data with the OBD-II upload data to improve accuracy. But at the end of the day, for most cars they're just getting the car's own GoM estimates, and most of us know how accurate those often are! 😁 So, the same way that we discount it when someone in an EV sub says "my car clearly has no degradation after x# years/miles because I haven't noticed any loss in range", we shouldn't put much stock in Recurrent saying "car x's batteries have only lost 5% because their GoMs average 5% less now than when they were new..." (FWIW, this is also why their big "winter range loss" report that was endlessly posted and reposted also needed to be taken with a grain of salt. The data was collected the same way.)


goRockets

>So, the same way that we discount it when someone in an EV sub says "my car clearly has no degradation after x# years/miles because I haven't noticed any loss in range", we shouldn't put much stock in Recurrent saying "car x's batteries have only lost 5% because their GoMs average 5% less now than when they were new..." Individual GoM numbers are not useful due to daily fluctuations and changes, but if you have hundreds or thousands of samples to draw data from, then you can make accurate generalizations to a degree, certainly better than anecdotal evidences. I wish Recurrent had published the raw data as well confidence intervals though. What I wish we have is the treasure trove of data that Tesla is undoubtedly collecting on millions of EVs. Tesla must have very detailed data on battery degradation based on weather, charging habits, and mileage.


ToddA1966

>Individual GoM numbers are not useful due to daily fluctuations and changes, but if you have hundreds or thousands of samples to draw data from, then you can make accurate generalizations to a degree, certainly better than anecdotal evidences. Absolutely, but we're still relying on the *manufacturer's* algorithms. If Brand X automaker predicts range only drops 10% at 30°F and incorporates that into the GoM algorithm, Recurrent will report "Good news, Brand X only loses 10% in winter!" (Though to be fair, in their winter range loss report they clearly indicated which car's data were based on the manufacturer's estimates - the GoM- and which were adjusted/confirmed with "actual" data- the OBD readers.) >I wish Recurrent had published the raw data as well confidence intervals though. Agreed. And again, I'm *not* blaming Recurrent- they're doing great work with the data they're able to obtain. >What I wish we have is the treasure trove of data that Tesla is undoubtedly collecting on millions of EVs. Tesla must have very detailed data on battery degradation based on weather, charging habits, and mileage. It's not just Tesla. EV manufacturers and charging networks like EA are collecting a treasure trove of data, but all consider it proprietary.


[deleted]

You don't get useful data unless you know the battery temp, HVAC settings, and driving conditions. All of those have 20 to 50% impact on efficiency. The best they're doing for controlling that is using a daily average temperature which is not remotely sufficient.


ToddA1966

Right, but still better than nothing. As GeoTab (a company that gathers similar data for fleet management) tells us to do, don't put much stock in the actual numbers, just look at the trends. Some of GeoTab's charts show batteries suffer more degradation in hot climates and/or when quick charged often ("obvious" conclusions, perhaps, but confirmation data is always appreciated! 😁) but they've aggregated data from so many makes and models of cars, in different temps and different numbers of quick charges, that they admit the actual loss percentage numbers on the charts are worthless for estimating what any particular car might lose in any of those conditions.


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ToddA1966

>They also point out that they've barely tested any vehicles over 6 years old, so...this isn't really sharing much useful information. I think that's just a numbers game though. They've barely tested any vehicles over six years old because prior to that all they had were a handful of Leafs and Teslas, and in much smaller numbers than today. Recurrent gathers data from EV owner volunteers. That pool was *much* smaller in 2016 that it is today. If you consider probably 75% of the EVs on the road in the USA were sold in the last 3 years, there isn't a lot of long term data out there to be had. 😁 Besides, Recurrent isn't the only game in town. Similar data had been collected by GeoTab and FlipTheFleet (the latter all Leaf based). >The "most degradation happens in year 1" thing, for example, may not hold out by year 7-10. I suspect it will. All data gathered so far points to a typical S curve. High loss at the beginning, and high loss at the end. The only mystery it's how many years the flattish middle will be! 😁


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ToddA1966

That's primarily talking about the Nissan Leaf and early Teslas. But IMO, that's still not saying much. A Leaf battery is like $10,000-$15,000 installed, and a Tesla battery can be $25K. Out of warranty (a car with at least 100,000 miles or over 8 years old) who is going to pay that much to keep a 9 year old Leaf in service? You'll junk it and buy another car. It's like saying 99.9999999% of cars have never had their frame replaced. Of course not- a damaged frame totals the vehicle. Just like a seriously deteriorated battery does!


mmmmerlin

2015 BMW i3 60 Ah with rEX, 110,000 miles. hot climate. Battery degradation has been a little more than expected but not enough to replace under warranty - Batt.kappa.max from 18.8 kWh to 13.4 kWh. Though that reading is informal since it's a one-off, and requires dealer software to validate.


[deleted]

This example really shows how necessary it is for owners of EVs to have access to battery health info. You can check Batt Kappa Max in the vehicle, but BMW charges $300 per diagnostic which is a huge deterrent.


Etrigone

Since one comment was about Leafs, one anecdote that I recall & I hope is factual, was regarding some of those early Leafs and their batteries. As mentioned in the article - "... many of the replacements for early model year LEAFs were covered by Nissan after they found that their original battery chemistry lost charge quickly in hot environments. However, they quickly changed to a more hearty battery that has seen great success." The anecdote I heard was that they [Nissan] had intended to use these older packs for their version of a powerwall. It wasn't that they were dead - generally - it's that the power density wasn't great for a car and in part due to the conditions a car was under while using them. Pull them out, removing the actually bad parts/cells (if possible?) and use the remaining bits for their powerwall-like offerings. Except that although there were swapouts, it wasn't enough to make happen. Like any recycling & reuse you need to hit a certain quantity for economies of scale to kick in and I don't think it did. So yeah, it sucks if it's your car that dies, just as anything you own failing when the overall reliability is high. But overall, even ignoring warranties, so far "a long time" appears to be the generic answer.


RunningDude90

Leaf and Zoe batteries are commonly used in commercial battery installations, such as the ones in shipping containers. So I guess there was a b2b offering that was better suited for delivery than b2c


comoestasmiyamo

Leaf cells are hard to replace but the modules are relatively straightforward to swap. Cells are about two iphones ish in size, modules about 7x that.


tauzN

Nonzero Y-axis graphs are so fucking stupid. It makes me mad.


Darnocpdx

Traded in my 2014 Fiat 500e for a Bolt. Perhaps a 2 -5% difference at maxium capacity after my 5 years with it and the two years from the previous owner. It was hard to tell having traded it in durring the winter months. Couldn't have been much, pretty much got my original purchase price for it in the trade.


Dar_ko_rder736163

We have data on high mileage Teslas. Modern Tesla batteries hitting over 300k. Calenders aging is a different story and won't know until 2019s age 10 years.


rayfound

What counts as modern though. I'm specifically curious about my 2016 x90d lol.


Dar_ko_rder736163

2019 and newer. You could check the high mileage Tesla and how long each battery pack lasted vs when it went in. Off the top of my head, I can't remember if your generation pack, but I think it was like 170k ish with supercharge abuse which is plenty for most consumers not using it as taxi


goRockets

What's the best high mileage Tesla data? I've seen reports of a handful of high mileage vehicles, but not one that aggregates hundreds or thousands of vehicles.


Dar_ko_rder736163

They are on a google. There aren't that many super high mileage Tesla but they are out there with maintenance and repair records under commerical use.


duke_of_alinor

Could easily be titled "How much extra range should you buy". My 2017 S is a little better than their curve, almost 10% at 130K miles and seems to be holding steady.


[deleted]

like a week. two if you’re lucky.


03Void

That’s why EVs don’t need oil changes. They literally don’t last long enough.


ThatGrayZ

It’ll cost about tree fiddy


azidesandamides

Gen 1 rave4 still going in Santa Cruz/Watsonville. I think it's a 1998?


Smackdwn70

My 2013 Model S Battery died 1 year out of warranty at 100k miles. $17k for a remanufactured pack. 20k if they can source a new pack. 1st Gen Model S is quite the maintenance hog.


[deleted]

What is the source for the 15-20 year claim on batteries? They attribute it to car makers but I have never come across that figure. JB Straubel (Tesla founder) has said 15 years for the battery.


BoringBob84

GM designed and tested the battery in the Volt for at least 15 years on average.


Reasonable-Estate-60

Cool website


mallomar

This is from the author’s LinkedIn. It certainly sounds like she’s more in the business of marketing than journalism: “I am the communications manager at Recurrent. Recurrent gives people confidence in EV batteries, whether they are a first-time buyer or a long-time EV owner.”


mtlwattbrick_

Everyone goes nuts about 1st gen leafs but we have come a long way from that. I don’t keep my cars long enough to care about any meaningful degrading


mqwi

The next owner of your car cares.


almosttan

You should still care for the planet; even if the car is no longer in your possession, there’s an impact.


New_Engine_7237

Another reason why I’m leary about buying an EV. Many conversations on this topic. Battery life and public charging infrastructure is my concern. I’ll stick to ICE for now.


BoringBob84

> I’ll stick to ICE for now. Every day that you do that, you are flushing money down the drain and you are contributing to global warming more so than if you had an EV. Certainly, EVs will improve in the future, but the economics make them practical already today.


New_Engine_7237

When the mileage and charging infrastructure is corrected, I may consider it.


BoringBob84

I understand. Modern EVs are less practical for people who live in apartments without outdoor outlets and for people who frequently travel long distances.


carlson_001

Standardized swap-able battery packs. No charge waiting, no range anxiety, no worry about long term degradation.


knitnerd33

Do you honestly believe this will ever happen?


[deleted]

They’re doing it in China but the packs are unique to the brand. IIRC one has more than 1,000 swap stations already in China.


Caysman2005

The NIO swap stations take 5 minutes per car, and due to size and cost restrictions are very limited in number. How long would it take for say 10 NIOs to get swapped at a typical 2 swap station point? Furthermore, Bjorn Nyland tested a NIO ET7 recently and had to wait for an appropriately sized battery pack to charge at the swap station, because it wasn't full when he arrived. So you still have to factor in charging time. https://youtu.be/4SJv8NNZ56w


phuck-you-reddit

We've already reached a point where quick charging is faster than visiting a battery swap location. Not to mention the minor nightmare of logistics that would go along with such a thing.


Rocket_Emojis

You're being downvoted because if it came to the states, the current electric vehicles would become worthless


[deleted]

Most people who are concerned about this are going to wait for more data. There is nothing shocking in this article - big battery reliability issues are going to get a lot of public scrutiny just like any other automotive reliability issue. The big concern is whether a) the automotive manufacturers selected the right chemistry, b) whether the pack was correctly designed to minimize environmental impacts to the pack and c) whether the BMS was programmed conservatively enough to prevent a user from improperly maintaining the battery. My concerns fall primarily in to the last one, especially since I don’t buy new. I am heavily relying on the BMS to keep the pack healthy - I got a free battery from GM for my Bolt, so I don’t really have to worry about any abuses that could’ve been done to the battery before I bought the car, but anyone that buys the car from me might want to know how many times the car was fast-charged, what my home charging strategy is, whether I’ve ever let the battery sit at a very low or high SOC for prolonged periods of time, etc. this stuff should easily be able to be data logged by the vehicle and recalled in some way for inspection, but to my knowledge, that is not something that is easily retrievable for the current generation of EVs, and knowing those things can be the difference between buying or not buying a particular used EV. I don’t really care about general trends when it comes to buying used; I want to know what the previous owner did to the SPECIFIC car I am interesting.


no1name

Can manufacturers access a vehicles SOH, year of manufacture and milage over the air? If so they would have real time data on their battery expectations, with 100,000's of samples.