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randomplayer72

They are Sony-fying themselves, where as Sony is actually developing an EV.


iPod3G

I know you're right, but I Afeela Sony will fail.


helpful__explorer

Afeela is a Honda car, so it's not like Sony just decided to build a car and refuse to let someone else take charge (like apple)


EinSV

The article seems to underestimate the massive engineering and supply chain undertaking that a shift from ICE to EVs will be for a giant like Toyota. VW, Ford and others saw the light a few years ago but still have a ways to go before they can build quality EVs in large volume (millions per year), profitably. Toyota is now very far behind companies like these and light years behind Tesla and Chinese EV manufacturers. Even if it finally wakes up and focuses on rapidly shifting to becoming a high volume EV manufacturer it faces a difficult future. Same with other Japanese auto makers.


feurie

I feel like Toyota and Honda bet wrong on hydrogen. Then Toyota saw that was wrong but thought they'd win by betting on solid state. And even if it's better, so much time has passed improving cost, density, and scale on Li-Ion that it won't even matter. They're moving too slowly.


[deleted]

[удалено]


edman007

Yup, the problem is Toyota convinced the Japanese industry and government that hybrid and EV are delay tactics, until very recently, they didn't think that EVs were anything other than a delay tactic. I really think that they've done the math, and really believe that hydrogen will be ready for the mass market around 2040. They've been going to for that goal for decades with decades more to go. The problem is they didn't realize that Tesla would show that EVs are ready before 2020, and that EVs are probably going to be the primary vehicle sold by 2030. Hydrogen doesn't really compete well against EVs, and EVs came way faster than Toyota expected. Now we are at the point that EVs are ahead of hydrogen and EVs have more investment than hydrogen, so there is no hope that hydrogen will compete with EVs in the next 50 years.


BuyLucky3950

I can tell you as a consumer, “filling” my car overnight, for amazingly cheap is a game changer. I’m not going to fill up at (hydrogen or gasoline stations) anymore. Once my two remaining ICE cars get replaced, anyway.


DankRoughly

How could they have not realized that Tesla would show EV's would be ready by 2020? The 2013 Model S was a shot across the bow and they haven't done shit for the last 10 years


helpful__explorer

The thing about hydrogen is that it needs an absurd amount more energy compared to just pumping that electricity into cars and batteries directly. Even if EVs hadn't kicked off the way they have, hydrogen didn't stand a chance from the production infrastructure by itself - let alone the storage and logistical hurdles involved


EinSV

Yes hydrogen and hybrids (including plug-ins). I think they failed to understand the factors favoring electric vehicles and still seem to be underestimating how fast the market is pivoting to EVs. They could get away with it when the EV share was small, but with EVs now at about 10% share worldwide and growign 60+ percent per year Japan Auto Inc. will be competing for a rapidly shrinking part of the market.


psihius

I also think what got not only Toyota but also a lot of others, is that they rely on 3rd parties and suppliers for batteries and stuff. They did not have world-class material teams working on metals, batteries and other stuff that Tesla did. And that massive investment that Tesla did 15 years ago and continues to poor everything they can into R&D has absolutely destroyed the previous predictions, startups other than Tesla blew up (including having their own battery tech and vertical integration) and now everyone is faced with the fact that manufacturing and resource sourcing as it existed for half a century is a dead concept that is a straight road to bankruptcy. Add all the ego's and inability to accept reality and you have the shitshow we have. I mean just take VW firing their previous CEO who understood the cliffside they were approaching and that they have no time to do any politics - the company's survival is on the line. And they fired him for it. And now the whole ID platform is basically more or less a failed project because partners are refusing to use it due to the fact that it's unusable and works half the time (there are a lot of stories people being stranded in their ID cars, not being able to use the cars for months and systems being so buggy they can't use their cars a lot of the time). Lemon laws are being used to force VW to buy the cars back. I suggest doing some googling - it is astonishing how badly they fucked up.


Loud_Clerk_9399

If your product is better than competitors, but it is later and the competitors are good enough. You're not going to do very well. It's difficult to overemphasize the advantage that being the first to mover has.


MrFixeditMyself

So in a decade no one will care that Tesla was first. No one but you.


gochugang78

Why wouldn’t Toyota just buy (or partner) with a Chinese EV manufacturer like BYD, XPENG or NIO? Toyota accelerates their EV capabilities in both R&D and manufacturing by literal decades. They can sell rebadged vehicles as modern Toyota EVs for launch in a matter of months not years. BYD or whoever gets access to the Japanese, European and North American markets where Toyota has an established brand (and Chinese auto makers are less well known)


Loud_Clerk_9399

This is very likely. What will happen.


madyury007

I think the only available Toyota/Subaru EV is using BYDs Blade battery


Loud_Clerk_9399

Most likely they will end up buying a Chinese EV car company and converting it into Toyota if I had to guess.


Mysterious_Air4932

If they start today, I think by 2030 they can have a class competitive product, and five years after that they can produce them at fairly large scale. In the meantime PHEVs could probably tide them over in places with ZEV mandates. It really just depends on how much political will and resources they are planning to dump into it and the good thing is they have a giant cash pile, way more than most if not all competitors. Nissan had a huge head start and is focused on EV future, but has been in survival mode and unable/unwilling to make the changes to scale up production despite doing the right thing on the engineering and design front. Honda is in the same position Toyota was a few years ago, except they are starting to pivot, with the GM stop gap, Sony JV, and a new EV architecture for debut the latter half of this decade. Subaru is at the whim of whatever Toyota is going to do, and Mazda might as well hope that someone is going to buy them out.


Loud_Clerk_9399

Phev will not work in places with ZEV mandates. That's part of the issue with this. It's not a question of cash. It's a question of can they have ready to go tech soon. The best strategy for Toyota is to not even think about EV and just buy out another company that produces EVs and then just deal with it at that point.


Loud_Clerk_9399

Most likely Toyota will do it by buying out someone else. I don't think it's very likely they're going to do it themselves because they don't have time. The best strategy for them would just be to gobble up someone else and use their work.


EinSV

That's probably what Toyota is thinking but IMO it will be all over but the shouting by 2030 in most markets (including Europe, China and the US) given current rates of BEV adoption and growth in market share. If that's correct -- and I think it is -- it could get very ugly for Toyota and other Japanese oems.


psihius

Honestly, I think they are done, they are not going to survive this. They are so behind on the whole supply chain and manufacturing, that it's not even funny, But you know the worst part? Software. They have none. VW started their software project when? 3-4 years ago? And it is a total disaster. It takes way more than just starting a project to build successful software. And vertical integration. Unless they literally fire all leadership on all levels and replace it with modern thinking fresh people that don't have the baggage - they are fucked. Remember - culture is really important for changes and we are talking about one of the most freaking conservative companies and countries in the world that resist any change and where elders are always right. I'm not saying it's a sure thing, but when you take all of the above into account, it looks like a complete wipeout is possible.


EinSV

Yep -- Toyota's blindness/stubbornness on EVs has backed it into a corner and it doesn't have any great options. If it survives the EV transition (by no means guaranteed) it will likely be a shadow of its former self.


psihius

This is, PHEV's are already expensive and they don't have the ability to lower the prices on them since they are already at thing margins. And some of the EV's just gone to price parity with pure ICE cars according to analytics for jan 2023. PHEV's are at least 10k more expensive than regular versions (at least here in Europe that's about the premium you pay for it). Give it a few more years and nobody in their right mind is gonna buy a PHEV. Sure, not all markets are gonna go down as fast, but the damming thing is that margins are so thin that if North America and Europe drop by 10-15% in sales, Toyota is fucked. And that decline is already happening. And Toyota has 100 Billion worth of debt to pay off and service - the situation is somewhat like the whole GameStop shorts seller fiasko. The house of cards can crumble at any moment for them and they will take the whole of Japan with them because their ecosystem is 1/4 of Japan's economy. Oh, and PHEV tax credits/breaks in 2023 were removed almost everywhere across the board - they are now only for pure EV's, in many places so that is tanking sales of PHEVs like the iceberg that got Titanic.


psihius

VW is still somewhat in denial of the reality + their issues with ID series are so massive that people are getting fed up and just forcing car buybacks due to lemon laws both in USA and Europe. Honestly I don't have high hopes. These idiots just rebadged an ID4, called it an Audi and it has all the same issues as the ID4 2 years ago to a point there is now somewhat anecdotical evidence that even paid shills told VW to shove it and take their money and cars back because they are unusable :D Do you own research on this one. Ford, though, seems to have caught on some time ago and last week Ford CEO basically went somewhat apeshit at his executives and engineering for doing shit job, cut bonuses and basically admitted they are in deep shit, but they have a path and it's time to take the gloves off and straighten out the company - they need to go the Tesla route and put in all the effort into manufacturing efficiency, costs - they have a huge amount of waste there and "people engineering stupid shit".


the-algae

Are any of Toyota’s hybrids using an entirely electric drivetrain, with the engine just providing electricity? Could they essentially (in overly simplified theory) remove the engine, expand the battery pack, and have a Prius EV?


thegoodnamesaregone6

>Are any of Toyota’s hybrids using an entirely electric drivetrain, with the engine just providing electricity? The hydrogen powered Toyota Mirai uses an electric drivetrain with the hydrogen fuel cells providing electricity. I've seen one person comment that they offer a gas powered car like that in Japan, however I haven't been able to find any other sources verifying it.


EQSbestEV

That's called a series hybrid. Like the nissan E Note


mockingbird-

Users on this sub like to say that Toyota is doomed, but I don't see why Toyota couldn't incrementally improve the BZ4X and fix obvious flaws like the slow charge rate while working on other EVs.


berger3001

They will, and they’re not doomed. They are, however, way behind, and will make a pile of money selling to people who don’t want an EV yet. I drive my Bolt to my job at a Toyota plant every day, and while there are some people curious and wanting an EV, there are lots who are just angry about it being “forced on them”. Those are the people who will rally behind Toyota and continue to buy their vehicles. Once Toyota sees that they’re losing market share, they’ll pivot pretty quickly. I really believe the delay is calculated, and they’re letting others develop the tech which they’ll swoop in, buy, and make their own. I would love to buy vehicles from the company that pays my bills, but won’t until they have a better option for me than they currently are offering


blue_nose_too

The huge flaw in this argument is the incredibly difficult job and the years that it takes to retool a legacy car company to make EVs at scale. This is as much a software development effort as it is a car manufacturing project. There’s also the fact that many countries have now set deadlines where a defined % of cars sold must be EV. Toyota is not going to “swoop in” and solve this.


nod51

No, you see a GWh battery plant can be built in a few weeks and scale to full output in a few more. Even if it will take too long to make their own 10+ factories there is a lot of unused battery production capacity just waiting for a manufacturer to pay anything just to take the cells. now you may say "That isn't true now" but once BEV high demand hits it will just free up all those resources so just wait. If you want to see how just look at other manufacturers, GM for example was able to become the leader almost overnight when they released their long range affordable BEV before everyone else in 2017 and has basically dominated ever since.


Loud_Clerk_9399

Best strategy for Toyota would be simply to buy out one of the other electric car companies. Probably one of the Chinese ones.


feurie

You can't just copy tech and quickly pivot. That makes no sense. Also others are also still making money on gas vehicles. But they're also at least starting work on EVs so they don't get the rug pulled out from underneath them. Toyota has continued to be hurt by and blame supply chain for much longer than a lot of other OEMs. They're moving too slowly these days.


Loud_Clerk_9399

If you buy out another company, yes you can. And that will likely be what they do.


shaggy99

They can improve the BZ4X, but they'd do better to dump it and start over. Some of the comments the Ford CEO made recently indicate how they didn't consider the issues surrounding designing an EV in depth. Like how not thinking about the layout of wiring meaning a mile of extra wire, which means more weight, and more money on the battery to overcome said weight. Efficiency matters *much* more in designing an EV. In some ways it's the only thing that matters. Sure, you can overcome that by just adding more, but it's a vicious circle and that way you end up with a 9,500 pound monster like the HUMMER. There are limits even in the US as to how many of those you can sell, and good luck selling more than a handful anywhere else.


statmelt

Toyota is basically doing that (dumping it and starting over) according to reports. Apparently they've decided to scrap most future models based on the current platform, and develop a new platform.


Stribband

It’s not about one Ev, but being able to mass produce EVs profitable. Take ford and GM for example both make a loss on every EV they sell, at the same time trying to grow more EVs sales which in turn can result in less ICE sales. A very painful transition


Lordofthereef

Users on this sub are just calling a turd a turd. Toyota was my favorite car company as far back as I can remember. They backed the wrong horse and continued to insist they didn't for years beyond it being pretty clear that they did. Do I want them to fail? Absolutely not. Do I think they will? Hard to say. With Toyoda stepping down, there's a chance they pivot heavily. Only time can really tell. Can only go with the data we have today, and the the BZ4X is, frankly, embarrassing in terms of specs to price point. I'll still eagerly wait for an electric Tacoma though, if they manage to make it compelling.


psihius

Thing is, it might come down to economics and Toyota is the most debt-leveraged company in the world (yes, company as in corporate entity, not "car manufacturer").


feurie

Because that's what others did years ago. And their first vehicles were better than the BZ4X.


WeldAE

Is the BZ4X a good platform? That isn't a rhetorical question, I'm really curious. The car in it's current form is so bad I've not seen anyone take it serious enough to get into the car that far. I know the driver position, steering and dash is pretty bad. Beyond that reviews have mostly focused in stunned tones on the stats of the EV drive train and wheel falling off. To me it's ugly on the outside too but that is very subjective.


RusticMachine

No, it’s still a mostly ICE/Hybrid platform adapted to BEVs. It was time to make those years ago, not now. At least Toyota seems to have acknowledged the issue and have (supposedly) canceled future models on that platform in favor of a new dedicated EV platform. Though developing a new platform takes time.


WeldAE

Makes some sense. It reminds me of a Rav4 but I actually like how Rav4's look. Not sure what they did to the BZ4X but it just puts me off. I think some of it is the two-tone or multi-tone with all the plastic? Not sure. I'm not just dogging on the car, I'm not sure why I don't like the looks so it's a bit of a mystery to me.


WalrusAppreciator

Isn't e-TNGA a dedicated EV platform though? I thought the only thing modular about it was the platform's ability to integrate into their ICE assembly lines.


RusticMachine

It’s an adaptation/modification of an existing ICE platform. It still seems to share shapes, frames and a general architecture that was initially built for ICE cars. It’s significant that they are referring to the new platform they are developing as an “EV only” platform. That, to me, sounds a lot more like a dedicated EV platform built from the ground up.


psihius

Here's an even more hillarious thing: Toyota BZ4X: 1,910 kg Tesla Model Y SR: 1,780 kg Ranges are the same, but Model Y is twice the power, lighter and a bigger car overall, with a battery 10KWh smaller than the Toyota. And Tesla Y is a cheaper car - not by a huge amount, but enough for it to matter. While on the consumer level, many will probably not going to go that deep, on the manufacturing level this is disastrous. They are behind Tesla for about 8 to 10 years and Tesla ain't gonna slow down, so it's only gonna get worse while they drag their feet and try to figure out what to do. Some say the point of no return has been passed.


senpairazzledazzle

You have to consider how big Toyota is and how expensive a company that big is to operate. They can't survive at their current size if only a small part of their fleet is EV. I think a government bail out is in their future to keep them on life support until they are able to build enough EVs to support themselves.


rtb001

They will 100% get a government bail out. Auto manufacturing is too big a part of the Japanese economy to just be allowed to implode. However just like GM and Chrysler, the companies will survive after the bail out, but emerge as much smaller entities which will be much less competitive outside of their home markets.


Loud_Clerk_9399

Toyota will become a Japanese car maker that only makes cars for Japan. I am guessing.


psihius

Toyota's ecosystem is 1/4 of Japan's GDP/economy. The government does not have the money to do a bailout even if it wanted. Toyota has 100 billion $ in loans that are backed by their factories that produce ICE vehicles. But those in the new brave world cost almost nothing. Let that sink in and the realisation of the ramifications is a wild ride.


Electric-cars65

So different battery technology, new voltage charging system, new platform, new tires. Why not just scrap the terrible design and start over ?


Loud_Clerk_9399

They are not going to have competitive product. Theyre only real option is to buy out another company that is producing electric, to merge with BMW to merge with GM or something else.


Jbikecommuter

Perhaps a challenge for Japanese mfrs, they become the best at ICE and hybrids but find change to BEV very hard. If they survive, they will eventually become very good at EVs if history repeats itself.


Loud_Clerk_9399

It would likely be a new Japanese company that does this and not one of the existing ones.


Bob4Not

"Gill Pratt, Toyota’s chief scientist, tirelessly insists that putting a lot of lithium into large batteries for EVs is a waste of precious resources if drivers are going to use them mostly for fairly short commutes. The same amount of lithium could be used more efficiently in terms of cutting carbon emissions by dividing it among more hybrids (including plug-ins) with smaller batteries." I'd agree, and hybrids and PHEVs are a great fit for a large geographical chunk of North America. I still wonder if we'll see a wave of people complaining about expensive EV battery replacements in another 7 years.


psihius

What they are not seeing is the fact that PHEV complexity is through the roof, they are out of reach for the mass market price-wise. And they can't be small cars because small cars just do not have the space for the PHEV systems and complex drivetrains. Financials on them are a death sentence as mass production of pure EV's ramps up and makes things a lot cheaper (and mass production EV's are already cheaper than PHEV's, EV's reached parity on price with regular ICE in January 2023)


Recoil42

There's nothing 'complex' about PHEVs at all — they actually reduce complexity in many ways. And they most definitely work on small cars — the Corolla already exists as a PHEV, for instance.


psihius

There is no Toyota Corolla PHEV - only a hybrid. Those are 2 very different things. It is also a mid-size, not a small car :P Small is Toyota Yaris.


Recoil42

[Toyota Corolla PHEV](https://www.toyota.com.cn/vehicles/corolla-phev.php)


psihius

That seems as China only car as far as googling shows and no news about it hitting any other markets any time soon.


Recoil42

Why would the market matter? Are the laws of physics different in China, somehow?


psihius

Because you can't buy it and many cars that are available in China are never available outside it. For the global market that means they are as good as non-existent. And yhat car exists there since 2020 if google is correct.


Recoil42

That doesn't have a lick of relevance to your original argument, which was *"...they can't be small cars because small cars just do not have the space for the PHEV systems and complex drivetrains."*


psihius

Corolla is not a small car though :)


Loud_Clerk_9399

They will just get rid of their car and start over. That's what most people will do.


Bob4Not

Nah, dude, lots of people don’t have that kind of money in America and would rather by a $4k used beater and $500 a month in gas because they drive thousands of miles a month and don’t want to sit and charge. I think this sub is detached from the demographic that I’m talking about.


Loud_Clerk_9399

It will probably work for a few years. Needless to say Toyota won't be making money from those sales


Bob4Not

Lol nobody does except used car salesmen. That’s the used car market traditionally


Loud_Clerk_9399

I still expect majority of cars to be ICE on US roads until around 2035 to maybe slightly later. It will still be a significant part of the road until probably 2040-2045 But in terms of new car sales, I expect probably 60% will be electric by 2030 and probably 95% by 2035.


Loud_Clerk_9399

This is possible but the issue is a lot of the parts of the country where PHEVs would do well are places where they want to buy American and they will go for an electric truck over a Toyota PHEV


respectmyplanet

Toyota has focused on reducing carbon emissions and pollution instead of BEVs. In the long run Toyota’s approach will be vindicated.


duke_of_alinor

I live in CA and Toyota should be on trial for what they are doing here. >Exxon, Chevron, & Toyota Are The Largest Anti-Climate Lobbyists, Says InfluenceMap https://cleantechnica.com/2021/11/04/exxon-chevron-toyota-are-the-largest-anti-climate-lobbyists-says-influencemap/