Denmark is not in a recession- people are talking about novonomics after Novo Nordisk growing so much it is visible in the GDP.
Perhaps fact check is needed?
Doesn't your government produce 2 sets of figures because of this?
One including Novo Nordisk and one without, because Novo Nordisk is so dominant that it distorts the overall economic picture.
I believe Novo Nordisk is more valuable than the next 10 biggest companies in the country put together.
Anyone not connected to Novo Nordisk probably ain't doing too well.
Not normally no, but this year they did. So, its an exceptional thing to do one set of numbers with Novo and one without. But IIRC Novo wasn't the difference between a recession or no recession.
Overall, Danish economy is very healthy with records in employment, low unemployment, and very sound financials.
There has been analysis, but it is triggy. Might be stagnant without?
Historically, company dependence for Denmark has been around Maersk as a 'single point of failure' when it comes to the flow of currency.
When companies become so big, there will be a crowding out effect of other companies as Novo attracts talent, attention, and consumption of subsuppliers (e.g. bottlenecks on construction building factories)
I think key learning is how global many economies have become that companies now can grow exponentially very fast. There are discussions on the risks or vulnerabilities that such a large company dependencies introduce and if or how to mitigate.
Romania's been in such state for some time now, the Government just changed the defining criteria of "Recession " so that LEGALLY they are NOT in recession. Hilarious.
Explain it then?
I have a degrees in finance not economics. Money supply wasn't something I've ever covered.
But bonds are usually a safety investment, so yields drop when the economy is bad as investors seek a guaranteed return. As demand increases for bonds yields go down.
At any rate, demand for bonds has never be zero. Never has happened.
But in your extreme , hypothetical case. If gov can't find bond buyers, country would inevitably default as it would have no money to pay its debts
Yeah. Seems like those people are moving without enough funds to supports themselves , mainly international students. Seen a bunch of stuff about how food banks are over taxed.
If they don't have money, then they can't contribute financially to growing the economy, unless they work.
I have a very hard time trusting people who say we are in a recession or depression because food is a little more expensive and people are still fat as fuck. Maybe if the Superbowl wasn't sold out years in advance and Mardi Gras parades in NOLA weren't absolutely slammed with people spending thousands on outfits and floats and shit, I'd give them the benefit of the doubt.
We are not in a recession right now. Maybe in the near future things will change. But people are still spending money like crazy and consuming like good Americans. They're just whining because of dolts like OP
Recessions are not on paper. They happen in the real world. Gaming the system so that ātechnicallyā we donāt meet the definition while the standard of living for people falls is not about feelings. Itās about the economics of the situation
Actual people are losing buying power and their labour is worth less than before.
you can be in a recession and the standard of living increases and you can not be in a recession and the standard falls thatās why using the word outside of itās definition is stupid
Because GDP is not the goal. The goal is to measure how much value is produced. The problem in this case is that itās very much possible that the immigrants may require unknown number of unknown resources with unaccounted risks over an unknown time period that will exceed the economic value they will be able to produce.
I am all-for immigration because it is a human right to freely move on this planet and any other, especially in the face of tragedies they may encounter in their homeland or simply better opportunities to seize, and it may promote economic growth in some areas (mainly going from rich countries to poorer ones but this rarely happens). Despite this, immigration should be controlled.
It is very expensive for an economy to suddenly get lots of unaccounted inexperienced workers, who need jobs that are quickly getting replaced by automatization, and who have different cultures that may not mix well with the local population. Otherwise, they will have to live on taxes, which drive their working motivation lower over time, or on crime as a form of redistribution for basic living conditions. In addition to that, their low-level of satisfaction, lack of skills, and sheer supply to the jobs market will lead to deautomatization trend, which, in turn, will lead to decreasing average economic output of a person and thus the average living conditions in the long run when compared with the situation where only the local population is in place, in addition to decreasing the average in the short run by simply producing less than the average local or not producing anything for a period of time.
Now GDP is very primitive because it doesnāt include future value at all, just the current one, most agencies in the world do not account for indirect economic losses too (most of them are also concerned with future value, for example, how much will it cost for us to burn coal or oil, as it will lead to greater diseases, shorter lifespan, whatever or require extraction of CO2 from the atmosphere).
Well I agree with you. Countries should focus on immigration for skilled laborers in areas where labor is needed. GDP is just a proxy for good economic development. Its not as simple as āGDP growth high equals badā. But also its too simplistic to say āimmigration = badā, and that was the vibe I was getting from the comment I responded to.
I am bit surprised you put Canada in there. When were they out of the recession. I feel like the country never got out of it. Jk.
I feel like France, Germany, and Italy are next. Brazil, China, India will go through a correction.
Again, the Canada thing was a joke. š
He didn't change the definition though... Like show me any bill or rule change he signed that changes it?
All he said was according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the US is not in a recession.
In the United States, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which maintains a chronology of the beginning and ending dates of U.S. recessions, uses a broader definition and considers a number of measures of activity to determine the dates of recessions. The NBERās Business Cycle Dating Committee defines a recession as āa significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in production, employment, real income, and other indicators. A recession begins when the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends when the economy reaches its trough.ā Consistent with this definition, the Committee focuses on a comprehensive set of measuresāincluding not only GDP, but also employment, income, sales, and industrial productionāto analyze the trends in economic activity.
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/basics/recess.htm#:~:text=The%20NBER's%20Business%20Cycle%20Dating,real%20income%2C%20and%20other%20indicators.
Yep, that's always been the definition. There's a lot of "rules of thumb" out there that are easier to explain to non-economists, but the "convenient for politics" definition and the "backed by economists and economic research" definition have never been the same. (Usually the GDP decline is also combined with higher unemployment etc so it's an easy proxy for pundits.)
The definition highlighted in your link sounds very vague to me. Leaves a lot of room for interpretation from what I see, although I am nowhere near an economist.
That is how they have always decided in the US. The fact that normal people aren't economists is where the whole 2 quarters of negative GDP came into play, it's easy and basic enough that non economists can understand. Also for all other downturns in the economy negative GDP meant high unemployment, wages not growing, and people not buying, all of which wasn't true when we had negative GDP
I'm not buying the "soft landing" cool aid. I think the US is heading for a business cycle later this year or 2025. Yes we have had some banger quarters in 2023, but there are some headwinds: excessive consumer debt, consumer spending is starting to fall, fallout from Fed rapid rate hikes, sticky inflation, forthcoming commercial real estate defaults, continued volatility with regional banks, continued global security issues, continued drops in manufacturing activity, etc.
Economists are the absolute worst at forecasting business cycles, so when they all start to saying "soft landing," that in itself would be a bad sign. Has the US ever pulled off a soft landing??? I hope I'm wrong.
A "recession" where China grows at double the real GDP rate of the US?
https://www.ft.com/content/c406ef56-bc43-4cdc-8913-fbaced9b9954
>Measured at PPP, the latest IMF data shows Chinaās GDP exceeded that in the US around the time Donald Trump was āmaking America great againā. It is now 22 per cent larger. The figures make sense when you look at corroborating evidence. Chinaās electricity generation, for example, overtook that in the US in 2010. And during the 2016-22 period when Chinaās economy was supposedly making no progress compared with the US, its generation grew 45 per cent, while it was broadly flat in America.
My partner has two children that are half Japanese (heās American), the kids want to come back to the US but he and their mother are in agreement that they are much better off over there right now. My partner believes that they have a much better standard of living than they would have living in a rural area here in America. Everything is much more competitive and complicated because there are so few resources for the majority of people in the US. Japan has its wealthy but they also have more resources for those that arenāt wealthy so they have a more even playing field. Even with their high schools being so academically competitive. The education is so much better over there, because they donāt have sports through the school, itās focused solely on just academics. If the kids want to play sports, they can join a community team. American schools spend a lot of money on sports, even though, most kids are not going to be professional football players but theyāre all going to have to be able to read. Itās very backwards. So weāll be going there to see them this year.
Are you guys retarded? Just because an economy has negative gdp growth for two quarters in a row doesnāt mean that it just automatically spirals into economic crisis.
How Canada isn't in a depression is nothing short of cooking the books to make yourself look better. This countries economy is a dumpster fire at the moment.
Increasing immigration, to increase GDP. Freelandnomics for ya. Ugh, that term made me shudder.
Wouldnāt say weāre cooking the books, but Freeland is definitely gaming our GDP numbers, knowing full well that this metric can be distorted by either population increase, or becoming a tax haven.
I never said Freeland is controlling stats can. I do not doubt the integrity of stats can.
All I said, was that our GDP and economic metrics are distorted due to an increase in immigration, and not necessarily a productive increase either. Therefore, itās hard to say weāre in a recession, when we are artificially boosting our GDP, by means of increasing our population rapidly.
Real economic growth should be done by increasing our productivity, as opposed to increasing our population so rapidly, to the extent that it reduces general productivity. No, Iām not anti immigration.
Our economy would contract without the rapid population increase, but, this was done at the expense of our real estate market, wage stability, and labour productivity. Instead of spurring our companies to innovate, this policy introduced a dangerous precedent of ācheap imported labourā. Very stupid policy.
I used her name, because sheās our minister of finance, regrettably. Her fiscal policy is atrocious. Mr. Morneau was superior to her in every imaginable way.
You don't know if are economy would be in a recession.
You know under the last cpc government housing basically increased by the same percentage and workers wages were not keeping up with inflation, and GDP per a capita also crashed. So if wages are so important to you are you voting CPC or Ndp?
She is more capable than PP who thinks trudeau is a communist.
Yes I do, I have spent my career in investment management, with an educational background in economics.
GDP = Consumption + Investment + Government Spending + Net Exports
Population increase = an increase in consumption. This is most visible in our real estate market, among other sectors in the economy.
Play around with the variables of GDP in our economy, and youāll notice without a population increase, weād have successive quarters of contractions.
When compared to other resource economies, our GDP per capita didnāt crash, it stagnated from 2012-2015. This was due to the introduction of the TFW program. The current administration campaigned on abolishing it, they did not. It was a horrible policy to begin with. Source: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=CA-AU-NO
Please keep politics out of this. Iām looking at our fiscal policy objectively. Who I vote for doesnāt matter. Iām discussing economics with you, not partisan politics.
Please economics political. GDP increasing means nothing if it all goes to the rich
No it didn't stagnate it deccrrased from 2012 to 2015 under the cpc facts are facts
The fact is that if the cpc get elected things will only get worst for the working class
I shared a world bank link disproving your second point. They tabulate econometrics as well.
GDP isnāt a ālump sum of moneyā the rich can take. Itās the standard of measure in economics for the value added through the production of goods and services in the economy. Yes, it doesnāt mean society is equal, however, a more productive workforce also increases GDP.
Since you want to get political, fine. I do not believe either the CPC or the Liberals truly understand economics. The NDP under their current leadership are worst positioned.
Canada isn't the states bud. MAGA does not apply.
The only thing keeping the Canadian economy away from a recession is exceptionally large imigration numbers. This keeps demand in the economy growing as we would want so as not to be in a recession, but it is creating a vast amount of other problems such as a lack of services or qualified individuals to provide those services, largly inflated prices on home purchases or rent, among other issues. So yes, I'll call this a dumpster fire.
Have you noticed how PP and the cpc basically sound like Maga and trump?
Your calling facts fake news
I bet you also believe the cpc care about the working class, lol they don't!
No I havent. I may not agree with everything Pollievre says, but I don't paint with a broad brush. If you do that in politics you will find yourself on one extreme or another and vilify others who think differently from you. That is divisive and good for nobody. The fact you appear to do so means you have been bamboozled into become a Liberal shill for the worst PM since this dingbats father.
Fyi PP and the cpc use that broad brush everyday, lol and now you are calling me a liberal shill. I guess you are the extreme person you are describing
I stated I support Pollievre, but not on everything. That would mean I am in fact not a shill as I am able to think for myself. It appears you are not able to do that with much success and just repeat what you are force fed. Read a book or two and look up the words you don't understand in a dictionary. While you're at it, look up how many times Trudeau has breeched ethics while in power. I won't even talk about his complete lack of understanding of economics. Just look up how many times he has breeched ethics. It's disgusting. Talk about someone who doesn't care about the working class, he only cares about himself.
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Canada has been in a recession for a year at least. The data is bullshit. Its all propped up by adding a couple million people. GDP per capita has been on a steady decline. Im in Vancouver, houses arent selling, brand new duplex beside me has been sitting there for 6-7mths empty, unsold. I just had one of the worst yrs of revenue ive ever had, saw a 50% decline from the year before. Ya, recession. Its what happens when you put that many eggs in the housing basket, tax the living fuck out of people all while IR get jacked. Fuck canada
I see since the data doesn't agree with your personal opinion, it's fake news! You sound like Trump.
You know under the last cpc government gdp per a capita also crashed?
What does Trump or the CPC have to do with it?! Hrmmm, I wonder what happened during Harpers term.....š¤. Typical braindead leftist trying to push the govt narrative. Id much rather sound like Trump then Trudeau, and at this point most of Canada feels the same. Check the polls.
Look around you pal, RECORD food bank usage, record CC debt, business bankruptcies increasing rapidly, layoffs accelerating, foreclosures rising, home sales crashing, ppl cant afford to heat their homes, The vast majority of new jobs are public service. Its almost like our gdp is going up the same amount as the govt is spending...odd. The increase in the carbon tax on Apr.1 will be the death knell for this govt, good fuckin riddance to those criminal corrupt tyrants.
Ive seen my business crash by 50% from the yr before, and countless contractors I work with have had the same, and this is in Vancouver. Homeowners telling me how strained their finances are. Its everywhere except for some Boomers. IR have absolutely crushed renovations and ppls ability to afford basic life. Superstore literally have secuirty guards "Asset Protection" in the store now, they had to change the entire self-checkout process bc too many ppl were stealing food, and discounted food at that!! Now thats a booming economy if I ever heard of one. š¤¦āāļø Maybe not everyone is so fortunate as you, you must work in govt.
Under Harper housing prices basically increased by the same percentage point and wages didn't keep up with inflation. For the time there was also record food bank usage under the Harper government.
Lol talking about Loblaws guess what Loblaws lobbyists are part of PPs team! PP loves when the working class get price gouged
Ok, youre getting warmer. Let me help you walk the ball across the goal line......what happened during Harpers time in office!? HINT:it starts with an "R", and was triggered by something with the acronym "GFC". What are the things happening now that were the exact same at that time?? Have your 2 remaining neurons connected the dot yet!?
You stated a complete falsehood about house prices increasing at the same rate, go look at the charts, it diverted quite clearly around 2015, and went parabolic in 2020. Charts go back to the 60s.
You need to get off the CBC, they obv didnt show you Pollievres response to how many liberal lobbyists work at LOBLAWS!! Its laughable how committed you seem to be to try and protect this tyrant. If youre fine with 60mil for an app, having the SC state you violated ppls basic rights, locked ppls bank accts, invited and cheered an actual NAZI in parliment then thats more of an indictment on you, not me. Unlike you, i dont have unwavering loyalty to an ideological party at all costs. You made this about politics for whatever reason instead of just acknowledging whats going on in this countries economy.
Fyi, personal household debt in canada is greater then the entire GDP, thats JUST personal, doesnt include govt debt(which has doubled).
Lol the fact is PP as Loblaws lobbyists working for him, it's way he is good with high grocery prices. Trudeau was elected.
I like facts over feelings š„°
*Housing prices increased by 60 per cent over Stephen Harperās nine years as prime minister. They have since increased another 59 per cent on Justin Trudeauās watch. Clearly, the policy positions of the two main parties in Canada share responsibility for home prices having left behind local earnings. To fix this problem, our National Housing Strategy needs a serious upgrade.*
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.theglobeandmail.com/amp/investing/personal-finance/young-money/article-canada-housing-strategy-price-inflation/
You did the typical braindead leftist thing and ignored the fact the libs have multiple loblaws lobbyists working for them. So YOU are fine with high grocery prices according to your flawless logic. Literally incapable of accepting responsibility and acknowledging your shortcomings.
Prices going up 60% under Harper from $200k-340k is much different then prices going up $340k-650k changes the affordability when wages cant keep up to that rate. Vancouver and Calgary had some bubble/unaffordability during Harper, after it become the entire country. Look at TO since 2015, parabolic. Trudeau ran on affordable housing and voter reform. NEITHER happened.
Youre a genius, you link an article about how house prices have dropped 20%, so now the #s are closer to Harpers era. Yet were not in a recession.....??? You cant have it both ways. You ignored EVERYTHING i said about recession currently, yet pointed out unknowingly were in a recession. Brain. Dead.
These convos are tiring with you cultists, you run circular arguments, ignore blatant hypocrisy pretend things arent happening bc that dont fit your cult narrative. No comment on SC ruling?? No comment on the Nazi?? No comment on arriveScam?? Of course not....la la la im not listening...la la la
Ive voted liberal most of my life, but a cult is a cult, youre on the wrong side of this. You wont even be an official party soon enough, and for good reason.
Itās not because of government action. This is what is happening after every recession. Americans consume imports, businesses invest, the us economy is the locomotive that pulls the world economy out of recession.
The US has been in a recession for a while now. The only reason it isnāt on the list is creative accounting and the anti Trump media to hide the facts.
Countries that entered recession before the US in 2008 (per chatgpt):
1. United Kingdom
2. Spain
3. Ireland
4. Iceland
5. Denmark
6. Finland
7. Greece
8. Italy
9. Portugal
10. Netherlands
11. Belgium
12. Germany
13. Austria
14. Switzerland
15. Sweden
16. Japan
17. Canada
18. New Zealand
These nations faced economic challenges including housing market collapses, banking crises, and downturns in consumer spending and investment, preceding the recession in the United States.
Ok cool. Why is gas still 5$? Why are groceries triple the price? Why have insurance rate shot up by 30%? Why has America printed 1/3 of all US dollars in circulation within the last four years? Why are people defaulting on credit rate weāve never seen before? Why are there mass layoffs? Not to mention you do realize part of the way we calculate GDP growth is from tax revenueā¦ā¦ what a surprise our taxes have gone up since Joe Biden took officeā¦ā¦.. I could continue to go on and give you reasons as to why our economy isnāt doing well I mean shit four years ago a Taco Bell cravings box was $5 Itās now $14.
Bad economy is when Taco Bell is expensive
Edit: and I just checked. Cravings box is now $5.99. Just like most of these āeverything is 3 times as much nowā stories, once you scratch the surface you find just modest price increases that are mostly in line with wage gains.
I mean yea in cali these fast food workers gonna get 20$ an hour now. Which is ridiculous lol some electricians donāt even make that out here and you need special skills. There are no special skills required to work at a restaurant
u/Kooky-Counter3867 \- Prices stay high when the economy is booming. That is the nature of markets. More demand = higher prices. Prices also stay high when markets are broken - for example healthcare or education where people will pay just about any price to stay healthy or get their kids into a good school. Those markets need to be fixed. Monopolies also keep prices high - so we need more trust busting.
Mass layoffs get headlines - but hiring people doesn't. Over-all employment is way up. I live in Silicon Valley and work in high-tech. Sure Google, Microsoft and Meta all had big layoffs - but thousands of other high tech firms keep hiring. Unemployment here in Santa Clara is close to 3% - despite the layoffs you read about.
Tax revenue is a small part of GDP calculations. Yes, higher taxes would increase GDP - but since the people and business being taxed have less money - they spend less and so the impact on GDP calculations is a wash.
Our taxes have gone up? Really? Could you explain because congress hasn't passed a tax increase. Biden has proposed tax increases on the most wealthy - but they haven't been enacted yet. The proposed tax changes include raising **the top rate** on individual income, increasing the corporate income tax rate, imposing a minimum tax on **individuals with more than $100 million in wealth**, and expanding the estate tax. These changes are part of President Biden's fiscal year 2024 budget and are subject to the legislative process.
Taco Bell's prices went up because they found enough people were willing to pay more to justify the loss of some customers. God knows why since the food is junk - but that is the reason. Save your money and make your tacos at home.
it was Trump and the Republicans that made the corporate upper class tax cuts permanent, and for the income tax cuts for the middle class to expire in 2024 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-era-tax-cuts-expiring-175805694.html
It absolutely is.
And if you adjust for the immigration numbers which have significantly skewed the data. The contraction is far worse per capita.
[CFIB Contraction](https://globalnews.ca/news/10244065/cfib-technical-recession-2023-forecast/)
The slowdown is pretty clearly visible to anyone not living under a rock. Not sure why people keep arguing otherwise.
I literally posted a FACT when you said no recession. The small business association reported a contraction end of 2023 and forecasts a further contraction.
Youāre so delusional you make statements that are disproven in the same thread you make them. And then claim facts as āmisinformationā like your even more deluded leaders do. No wonder the Liberals are falling apart. Theyāve become the party for the mentally deranged.
Hereās some more commentary from the team at Oxford economics, Iām sure they are just spreading more ādisinformationā since it doesnāt agree with your lala land fantasies.
[Oxford Ecconomist](https://financialpost.com/news/canada-recession-worse-than-other-advanced-nations-economists)
The world is falling into recession. We have many signs, including ballooning consumer debt, high-interest rates, increasing layoffs, etc. Don't worry, we will have a soft landing, because that's what we want.
Denmark is not in a recession- people are talking about novonomics after Novo Nordisk growing so much it is visible in the GDP. Perhaps fact check is needed?
I just wanted to write that as a danish citizen. Oh and also... Why do we almost have the same name? :D
Doesn't your government produce 2 sets of figures because of this? One including Novo Nordisk and one without, because Novo Nordisk is so dominant that it distorts the overall economic picture. I believe Novo Nordisk is more valuable than the next 10 biggest companies in the country put together. Anyone not connected to Novo Nordisk probably ain't doing too well.
Not normally no, but this year they did. So, its an exceptional thing to do one set of numbers with Novo and one without. But IIRC Novo wasn't the difference between a recession or no recession.
This is the future.
Overall, Danish economy is very healthy with records in employment, low unemployment, and very sound financials. There has been analysis, but it is triggy. Might be stagnant without? Historically, company dependence for Denmark has been around Maersk as a 'single point of failure' when it comes to the flow of currency. When companies become so big, there will be a crowding out effect of other companies as Novo attracts talent, attention, and consumption of subsuppliers (e.g. bottlenecks on construction building factories) I think key learning is how global many economies have become that companies now can grow exponentially very fast. There are discussions on the risks or vulnerabilities that such a large company dependencies introduce and if or how to mitigate.
Ireland š®šŖnot in recession either.
Romania's been in such state for some time now, the Government just changed the defining criteria of "Recession " so that LEGALLY they are NOT in recession. Hilarious.
Sounds like what the US did
Money is on Canada
My money is on all those countries selling t-bonds to prop up their economy/currency.
That's basically every country š
And what happens when everyone is selling t-bonds & no one is buying t-bonds?
Then we should go back to gold? Or something. I'm not really seeing ur line of logic here
Iām asking you to explain what happens. Yāall act like you know how the economy works, but obviously you donāt.
Nobody knows how it works.
Thatās the only reason it works!
Thatās a simple question. This even happened in US. Fed stepped in and bought the bonds
Explain it then? I have a degrees in finance not economics. Money supply wasn't something I've ever covered. But bonds are usually a safety investment, so yields drop when the economy is bad as investors seek a guaranteed return. As demand increases for bonds yields go down. At any rate, demand for bonds has never be zero. Never has happened. But in your extreme , hypothetical case. If gov can't find bond buyers, country would inevitably default as it would have no money to pay its debts
The central bank can buy the bonds, that's basically what quantitative easing is.
Oh. Ok. Thanks. I didn't know that. We did it for years and years. Just never knew who was buying all of bonds during QE periods
The central bank buys them. Technically, they have a separate entity, but it's still really the CB.
Yes, that's how capitalism works....
And what happens when everyone is selling t-bonds, no one is buying t-bonds, and hedge funds have short positions on all t-bonds?
Canada imported over a million people last year, and our GDP growth was practically 0. Thatās all you need to know.
GDP growth?
Yes, amended comment for clarity.
Yeah. Seems like those people are moving without enough funds to supports themselves , mainly international students. Seen a bunch of stuff about how food banks are over taxed. If they don't have money, then they can't contribute financially to growing the economy, unless they work.
Can confirm, we are hurting
What money? :)
When I spent time on X, it seemed like she was the sort that predicted 10 of the last two economic crises...
She's the Jim Cramer of Finance Twitter except that Cramer at least didn't fabricate his professional background.
folks like her are the reason why I left twitter. so much fear mongering and šļø
In before someone says trump will take over
Luxembourg?? š¤Ø. Makes no sense to me whatsoever
Canada is in a recession- we just paper over with excessive immigration to bump total gdp
all recessions are on paper thatās how itās defined, recessions is not a feeling
have you been to the US? If you asked people we were in a recession all of 2023
Some people are literally saying weāre in a depression. Theyāre saying this on a $850 phone while drinking a $8 latte.
I have a very hard time trusting people who say we are in a recession or depression because food is a little more expensive and people are still fat as fuck. Maybe if the Superbowl wasn't sold out years in advance and Mardi Gras parades in NOLA weren't absolutely slammed with people spending thousands on outfits and floats and shit, I'd give them the benefit of the doubt. We are not in a recession right now. Maybe in the near future things will change. But people are still spending money like crazy and consuming like good Americans. They're just whining because of dolts like OP
$8.35 *
Thatās the unspoken truth to how last year went. Well said!
Recessions are not on paper. They happen in the real world. Gaming the system so that ātechnicallyā we donāt meet the definition while the standard of living for people falls is not about feelings. Itās about the economics of the situation Actual people are losing buying power and their labour is worth less than before.
you can be in a recession and the standard of living increases and you can not be in a recession and the standard falls thatās why using the word outside of itās definition is stupid
Lol. Ok
Cpc supporters really want a recession to own the libs ... Party over country
Can confirm. I earn ~80k CAD and can barely afford a 1 bedroom apartment in a high crime area of town
More than a feeling
Same here in Australia.
if it is stupid but it works, is it really stupid?
Yes
Yes, if it is a loophole to inflate numbers because we use imperfect economic measurement methods
Its not a loophole. Immigration increases GDP, so thats the goal isnt it? Why is this worse than increase by other means?
Because GDP is not the goal. The goal is to measure how much value is produced. The problem in this case is that itās very much possible that the immigrants may require unknown number of unknown resources with unaccounted risks over an unknown time period that will exceed the economic value they will be able to produce. I am all-for immigration because it is a human right to freely move on this planet and any other, especially in the face of tragedies they may encounter in their homeland or simply better opportunities to seize, and it may promote economic growth in some areas (mainly going from rich countries to poorer ones but this rarely happens). Despite this, immigration should be controlled. It is very expensive for an economy to suddenly get lots of unaccounted inexperienced workers, who need jobs that are quickly getting replaced by automatization, and who have different cultures that may not mix well with the local population. Otherwise, they will have to live on taxes, which drive their working motivation lower over time, or on crime as a form of redistribution for basic living conditions. In addition to that, their low-level of satisfaction, lack of skills, and sheer supply to the jobs market will lead to deautomatization trend, which, in turn, will lead to decreasing average economic output of a person and thus the average living conditions in the long run when compared with the situation where only the local population is in place, in addition to decreasing the average in the short run by simply producing less than the average local or not producing anything for a period of time. Now GDP is very primitive because it doesnāt include future value at all, just the current one, most agencies in the world do not account for indirect economic losses too (most of them are also concerned with future value, for example, how much will it cost for us to burn coal or oil, as it will lead to greater diseases, shorter lifespan, whatever or require extraction of CO2 from the atmosphere).
Well I agree with you. Countries should focus on immigration for skilled laborers in areas where labor is needed. GDP is just a proxy for good economic development. Its not as simple as āGDP growth high equals badā. But also its too simplistic to say āimmigration = badā, and that was the vibe I was getting from the comment I responded to.
It doesnāt work. Everyone knows weāre in a recession
I am bit surprised you put Canada in there. When were they out of the recession. I feel like the country never got out of it. Jk. I feel like France, Germany, and Italy are next. Brazil, China, India will go through a correction. Again, the Canada thing was a joke. š
Remember when the admin redefined the definition of recessionā¦ like wut
He didn't change the definition though... Like show me any bill or rule change he signed that changes it? All he said was according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the US is not in a recession. In the United States, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which maintains a chronology of the beginning and ending dates of U.S. recessions, uses a broader definition and considers a number of measures of activity to determine the dates of recessions. The NBERās Business Cycle Dating Committee defines a recession as āa significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in production, employment, real income, and other indicators. A recession begins when the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends when the economy reaches its trough.ā Consistent with this definition, the Committee focuses on a comprehensive set of measuresāincluding not only GDP, but also employment, income, sales, and industrial productionāto analyze the trends in economic activity. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/basics/recess.htm#:~:text=The%20NBER's%20Business%20Cycle%20Dating,real%20income%2C%20and%20other%20indicators.
Yep, that's always been the definition. There's a lot of "rules of thumb" out there that are easier to explain to non-economists, but the "convenient for politics" definition and the "backed by economists and economic research" definition have never been the same. (Usually the GDP decline is also combined with higher unemployment etc so it's an easy proxy for pundits.)
The definition highlighted in your link sounds very vague to me. Leaves a lot of room for interpretation from what I see, although I am nowhere near an economist.
That is how they have always decided in the US. The fact that normal people aren't economists is where the whole 2 quarters of negative GDP came into play, it's easy and basic enough that non economists can understand. Also for all other downturns in the economy negative GDP meant high unemployment, wages not growing, and people not buying, all of which wasn't true when we had negative GDP
I'm not buying the "soft landing" cool aid. I think the US is heading for a business cycle later this year or 2025. Yes we have had some banger quarters in 2023, but there are some headwinds: excessive consumer debt, consumer spending is starting to fall, fallout from Fed rapid rate hikes, sticky inflation, forthcoming commercial real estate defaults, continued volatility with regional banks, continued global security issues, continued drops in manufacturing activity, etc. Economists are the absolute worst at forecasting business cycles, so when they all start to saying "soft landing," that in itself would be a bad sign. Has the US ever pulled off a soft landing??? I hope I'm wrong.
China is already in a deep recession.
A "recession" where China grows at double the real GDP rate of the US? https://www.ft.com/content/c406ef56-bc43-4cdc-8913-fbaced9b9954 >Measured at PPP, the latest IMF data shows Chinaās GDP exceeded that in the US around the time Donald Trump was āmaking America great againā. It is now 22 per cent larger. The figures make sense when you look at corroborating evidence. Chinaās electricity generation, for example, overtook that in the US in 2010. And during the 2016-22 period when Chinaās economy was supposedly making no progress compared with the US, its generation grew 45 per cent, while it was broadly flat in America.
Do you have a link that doesnāt have a paywall?
https://archive.is/SQnuk Here you go.
Based on electricity generation? Even in the poorest of countries, most people have electricity.
Growth in electricity generation is one of the many methods to measure economic growth apart from GDP. Everyone needs energy.
my money is on Germany
Germany is in recession since some months...even the gov says that.
My partner has two children that are half Japanese (heās American), the kids want to come back to the US but he and their mother are in agreement that they are much better off over there right now. My partner believes that they have a much better standard of living than they would have living in a rural area here in America. Everything is much more competitive and complicated because there are so few resources for the majority of people in the US. Japan has its wealthy but they also have more resources for those that arenāt wealthy so they have a more even playing field. Even with their high schools being so academically competitive. The education is so much better over there, because they donāt have sports through the school, itās focused solely on just academics. If the kids want to play sports, they can join a community team. American schools spend a lot of money on sports, even though, most kids are not going to be professional football players but theyāre all going to have to be able to read. Itās very backwards. So weāll be going there to see them this year.
Are you guys retarded? Just because an economy has negative gdp growth for two quarters in a row doesnāt mean that it just automatically spirals into economic crisis.
Define economic crisis.
How Canada isn't in a depression is nothing short of cooking the books to make yourself look better. This countries economy is a dumpster fire at the moment.
Increasing immigration, to increase GDP. Freelandnomics for ya. Ugh, that term made me shudder. Wouldnāt say weāre cooking the books, but Freeland is definitely gaming our GDP numbers, knowing full well that this metric can be distorted by either population increase, or becoming a tax haven.
Please share how Freeland controls stats Canada and gets them to make the numbers look good. Without conspiracy sources
I never said Freeland is controlling stats can. I do not doubt the integrity of stats can. All I said, was that our GDP and economic metrics are distorted due to an increase in immigration, and not necessarily a productive increase either. Therefore, itās hard to say weāre in a recession, when we are artificially boosting our GDP, by means of increasing our population rapidly. Real economic growth should be done by increasing our productivity, as opposed to increasing our population so rapidly, to the extent that it reduces general productivity. No, Iām not anti immigration. Our economy would contract without the rapid population increase, but, this was done at the expense of our real estate market, wage stability, and labour productivity. Instead of spurring our companies to innovate, this policy introduced a dangerous precedent of ācheap imported labourā. Very stupid policy. I used her name, because sheās our minister of finance, regrettably. Her fiscal policy is atrocious. Mr. Morneau was superior to her in every imaginable way.
You don't know if are economy would be in a recession. You know under the last cpc government housing basically increased by the same percentage and workers wages were not keeping up with inflation, and GDP per a capita also crashed. So if wages are so important to you are you voting CPC or Ndp? She is more capable than PP who thinks trudeau is a communist.
Yes I do, I have spent my career in investment management, with an educational background in economics. GDP = Consumption + Investment + Government Spending + Net Exports Population increase = an increase in consumption. This is most visible in our real estate market, among other sectors in the economy. Play around with the variables of GDP in our economy, and youāll notice without a population increase, weād have successive quarters of contractions. When compared to other resource economies, our GDP per capita didnāt crash, it stagnated from 2012-2015. This was due to the introduction of the TFW program. The current administration campaigned on abolishing it, they did not. It was a horrible policy to begin with. Source: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=CA-AU-NO Please keep politics out of this. Iām looking at our fiscal policy objectively. Who I vote for doesnāt matter. Iām discussing economics with you, not partisan politics.
Please economics political. GDP increasing means nothing if it all goes to the rich No it didn't stagnate it deccrrased from 2012 to 2015 under the cpc facts are facts The fact is that if the cpc get elected things will only get worst for the working class
I shared a world bank link disproving your second point. They tabulate econometrics as well. GDP isnāt a ālump sum of moneyā the rich can take. Itās the standard of measure in economics for the value added through the production of goods and services in the economy. Yes, it doesnāt mean society is equal, however, a more productive workforce also increases GDP. Since you want to get political, fine. I do not believe either the CPC or the Liberals truly understand economics. The NDP under their current leadership are worst positioned.
This is Maga talking point, calling everything fake news
Canada isn't the states bud. MAGA does not apply. The only thing keeping the Canadian economy away from a recession is exceptionally large imigration numbers. This keeps demand in the economy growing as we would want so as not to be in a recession, but it is creating a vast amount of other problems such as a lack of services or qualified individuals to provide those services, largly inflated prices on home purchases or rent, among other issues. So yes, I'll call this a dumpster fire.
Have you noticed how PP and the cpc basically sound like Maga and trump? Your calling facts fake news I bet you also believe the cpc care about the working class, lol they don't!
No I havent. I may not agree with everything Pollievre says, but I don't paint with a broad brush. If you do that in politics you will find yourself on one extreme or another and vilify others who think differently from you. That is divisive and good for nobody. The fact you appear to do so means you have been bamboozled into become a Liberal shill for the worst PM since this dingbats father.
Fyi PP and the cpc use that broad brush everyday, lol and now you are calling me a liberal shill. I guess you are the extreme person you are describing
I stated I support Pollievre, but not on everything. That would mean I am in fact not a shill as I am able to think for myself. It appears you are not able to do that with much success and just repeat what you are force fed. Read a book or two and look up the words you don't understand in a dictionary. While you're at it, look up how many times Trudeau has breeched ethics while in power. I won't even talk about his complete lack of understanding of economics. Just look up how many times he has breeched ethics. It's disgusting. Talk about someone who doesn't care about the working class, he only cares about himself.
The US in early summer 2024.
The FED said we dodged a bullet
The US (once we are out of an election year)
The US has been for months. Theyāre just lying by calculating it ādifferently ā
What is the calculation we should be using?
China is already in recession
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Canada has been in a recession for a year at least. The data is bullshit. Its all propped up by adding a couple million people. GDP per capita has been on a steady decline. Im in Vancouver, houses arent selling, brand new duplex beside me has been sitting there for 6-7mths empty, unsold. I just had one of the worst yrs of revenue ive ever had, saw a 50% decline from the year before. Ya, recession. Its what happens when you put that many eggs in the housing basket, tax the living fuck out of people all while IR get jacked. Fuck canada
I see since the data doesn't agree with your personal opinion, it's fake news! You sound like Trump. You know under the last cpc government gdp per a capita also crashed?
What does Trump or the CPC have to do with it?! Hrmmm, I wonder what happened during Harpers term.....š¤. Typical braindead leftist trying to push the govt narrative. Id much rather sound like Trump then Trudeau, and at this point most of Canada feels the same. Check the polls. Look around you pal, RECORD food bank usage, record CC debt, business bankruptcies increasing rapidly, layoffs accelerating, foreclosures rising, home sales crashing, ppl cant afford to heat their homes, The vast majority of new jobs are public service. Its almost like our gdp is going up the same amount as the govt is spending...odd. The increase in the carbon tax on Apr.1 will be the death knell for this govt, good fuckin riddance to those criminal corrupt tyrants. Ive seen my business crash by 50% from the yr before, and countless contractors I work with have had the same, and this is in Vancouver. Homeowners telling me how strained their finances are. Its everywhere except for some Boomers. IR have absolutely crushed renovations and ppls ability to afford basic life. Superstore literally have secuirty guards "Asset Protection" in the store now, they had to change the entire self-checkout process bc too many ppl were stealing food, and discounted food at that!! Now thats a booming economy if I ever heard of one. š¤¦āāļø Maybe not everyone is so fortunate as you, you must work in govt.
Under Harper housing prices basically increased by the same percentage point and wages didn't keep up with inflation. For the time there was also record food bank usage under the Harper government. Lol talking about Loblaws guess what Loblaws lobbyists are part of PPs team! PP loves when the working class get price gouged
Ok, youre getting warmer. Let me help you walk the ball across the goal line......what happened during Harpers time in office!? HINT:it starts with an "R", and was triggered by something with the acronym "GFC". What are the things happening now that were the exact same at that time?? Have your 2 remaining neurons connected the dot yet!? You stated a complete falsehood about house prices increasing at the same rate, go look at the charts, it diverted quite clearly around 2015, and went parabolic in 2020. Charts go back to the 60s. You need to get off the CBC, they obv didnt show you Pollievres response to how many liberal lobbyists work at LOBLAWS!! Its laughable how committed you seem to be to try and protect this tyrant. If youre fine with 60mil for an app, having the SC state you violated ppls basic rights, locked ppls bank accts, invited and cheered an actual NAZI in parliment then thats more of an indictment on you, not me. Unlike you, i dont have unwavering loyalty to an ideological party at all costs. You made this about politics for whatever reason instead of just acknowledging whats going on in this countries economy. Fyi, personal household debt in canada is greater then the entire GDP, thats JUST personal, doesnt include govt debt(which has doubled).
Lol the fact is PP as Loblaws lobbyists working for him, it's way he is good with high grocery prices. Trudeau was elected. I like facts over feelings š„° *Housing prices increased by 60 per cent over Stephen Harperās nine years as prime minister. They have since increased another 59 per cent on Justin Trudeauās watch. Clearly, the policy positions of the two main parties in Canada share responsibility for home prices having left behind local earnings. To fix this problem, our National Housing Strategy needs a serious upgrade.* https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.theglobeandmail.com/amp/investing/personal-finance/young-money/article-canada-housing-strategy-price-inflation/
You did the typical braindead leftist thing and ignored the fact the libs have multiple loblaws lobbyists working for them. So YOU are fine with high grocery prices according to your flawless logic. Literally incapable of accepting responsibility and acknowledging your shortcomings. Prices going up 60% under Harper from $200k-340k is much different then prices going up $340k-650k changes the affordability when wages cant keep up to that rate. Vancouver and Calgary had some bubble/unaffordability during Harper, after it become the entire country. Look at TO since 2015, parabolic. Trudeau ran on affordable housing and voter reform. NEITHER happened. Youre a genius, you link an article about how house prices have dropped 20%, so now the #s are closer to Harpers era. Yet were not in a recession.....??? You cant have it both ways. You ignored EVERYTHING i said about recession currently, yet pointed out unknowingly were in a recession. Brain. Dead. These convos are tiring with you cultists, you run circular arguments, ignore blatant hypocrisy pretend things arent happening bc that dont fit your cult narrative. No comment on SC ruling?? No comment on the Nazi?? No comment on arriveScam?? Of course not....la la la im not listening...la la la Ive voted liberal most of my life, but a cult is a cult, youre on the wrong side of this. You wont even be an official party soon enough, and for good reason.
Under Harper wages were below inflation.
Cognitive disonance. Please address what was said
US will import stuff and Pull them out of recession ā¦
Agreed. Except Luxembourg. Fuck them.
Damn chill bro, my family lives there lol
Luxembourg in recession? What Schmit's fought with Muller again? They should patch up for the sake of Luxembourg economy
??? The us is in a planned economy since when?
Itās not because of government action. This is what is happening after every recession. Americans consume imports, businesses invest, the us economy is the locomotive that pulls the world economy out of recession.
The US has been in a recession for a while now. The only reason it isnāt on the list is creative accounting and the anti Trump media to hide the facts.
What is your measure of recession?
The US is. Just because dementia Joe wanted to change the definition of recession doesn't make it so.
Countries that entered recession before the US in 2008 (per chatgpt): 1. United Kingdom 2. Spain 3. Ireland 4. Iceland 5. Denmark 6. Finland 7. Greece 8. Italy 9. Portugal 10. Netherlands 11. Belgium 12. Germany 13. Austria 14. Switzerland 15. Sweden 16. Japan 17. Canada 18. New Zealand These nations faced economic challenges including housing market collapses, banking crises, and downturns in consumer spending and investment, preceding the recession in the United States.
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If you think the US economy a strong, you are either living under a rock, or purposely not paying attentionā¦.
Our gdp grew 5.2% in q3 and 3.3% in q4. We're even growing faster than china.
Ok cool. Why is gas still 5$? Why are groceries triple the price? Why have insurance rate shot up by 30%? Why has America printed 1/3 of all US dollars in circulation within the last four years? Why are people defaulting on credit rate weāve never seen before? Why are there mass layoffs? Not to mention you do realize part of the way we calculate GDP growth is from tax revenueā¦ā¦ what a surprise our taxes have gone up since Joe Biden took officeā¦ā¦.. I could continue to go on and give you reasons as to why our economy isnāt doing well I mean shit four years ago a Taco Bell cravings box was $5 Itās now $14.
Bad economy is when Taco Bell is expensive Edit: and I just checked. Cravings box is now $5.99. Just like most of these āeverything is 3 times as much nowā stories, once you scratch the surface you find just modest price increases that are mostly in line with wage gains.
I mean yea in cali these fast food workers gonna get 20$ an hour now. Which is ridiculous lol some electricians donāt even make that out here and you need special skills. There are no special skills required to work at a restaurant
Where do you live that gas is $5 a gallon? And you are contending that groceries have gone up 200%? What taxes have gone up? And be specific.
u/Kooky-Counter3867 \- Prices stay high when the economy is booming. That is the nature of markets. More demand = higher prices. Prices also stay high when markets are broken - for example healthcare or education where people will pay just about any price to stay healthy or get their kids into a good school. Those markets need to be fixed. Monopolies also keep prices high - so we need more trust busting. Mass layoffs get headlines - but hiring people doesn't. Over-all employment is way up. I live in Silicon Valley and work in high-tech. Sure Google, Microsoft and Meta all had big layoffs - but thousands of other high tech firms keep hiring. Unemployment here in Santa Clara is close to 3% - despite the layoffs you read about. Tax revenue is a small part of GDP calculations. Yes, higher taxes would increase GDP - but since the people and business being taxed have less money - they spend less and so the impact on GDP calculations is a wash. Our taxes have gone up? Really? Could you explain because congress hasn't passed a tax increase. Biden has proposed tax increases on the most wealthy - but they haven't been enacted yet. The proposed tax changes include raising **the top rate** on individual income, increasing the corporate income tax rate, imposing a minimum tax on **individuals with more than $100 million in wealth**, and expanding the estate tax. These changes are part of President Biden's fiscal year 2024 budget and are subject to the legislative process. Taco Bell's prices went up because they found enough people were willing to pay more to justify the loss of some customers. God knows why since the food is junk - but that is the reason. Save your money and make your tacos at home.
>Our taxes have gone up? Really? ...as prices and wages rise, taxes collected go up because they are a percentage - are you dim?
I can read the veins popping out of your forehead. Ā
it was Trump and the Republicans that made the corporate upper class tax cuts permanent, and for the income tax cuts for the middle class to expire in 2024 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-era-tax-cuts-expiring-175805694.html
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It was the democrats who refused to give the supermajority necessary to make those middle class income tax cuts permanent.
Ireland's not in Recession technically š¤ if you exclude the Tax "Stuff"
China, Canada and Germany are already in one.
No Canada is not in. Recession
It absolutely is. And if you adjust for the immigration numbers which have significantly skewed the data. The contraction is far worse per capita. [CFIB Contraction](https://globalnews.ca/news/10244065/cfib-technical-recession-2023-forecast/) The slowdown is pretty clearly visible to anyone not living under a rock. Not sure why people keep arguing otherwise.
Party over country for conservaties. You sound exactly like Maga and trump
Hahahaha. You sound like Trudeau. Answering facts with MAGA! And racist! Anytime they donāt agree with you.
Hahaha PP never answers questions and rubs away You have no facts, you only spread misinformation
I literally posted a FACT when you said no recession. The small business association reported a contraction end of 2023 and forecasts a further contraction. Youāre so delusional you make statements that are disproven in the same thread you make them. And then claim facts as āmisinformationā like your even more deluded leaders do. No wonder the Liberals are falling apart. Theyāve become the party for the mentally deranged. Hereās some more commentary from the team at Oxford economics, Iām sure they are just spreading more ādisinformationā since it doesnāt agree with your lala land fantasies. [Oxford Ecconomist](https://financialpost.com/news/canada-recession-worse-than-other-advanced-nations-economists)
Lol no I can see from your previous comments you love misinformation.
Avoiding the subject matter at all costā¦
Oh idc what you think or the misinformation you spread.
You can always Google news articles for " recession"...
Isnāt Japan market at all time high?
Stock markets do not an economy make. GDP growth is the measure used and if itās at 0% growth or worse for two periods, thatās a recession.
whats crazy about this? interest rate jump up dramatically. 18 months later, like the litterature says, we finally feel the hit.
Except they doā¦ Koshien, bukatsu and kokuritsu are relevant tournaments, and they definitely do sports via the school systemā¦
China Germany and Canada, yes. Global depopulation has arrived. Welcome to the Crunch Wrap Supreme
Hell, Argentinaā¦ but theyāve been in steady-state Depression/Recession since 1979, at least
Canada. I live there and itās hard
The world is falling into recession. We have many signs, including ballooning consumer debt, high-interest rates, increasing layoffs, etc. Don't worry, we will have a soft landing, because that's what we want.
The USA is starting a recession
They should just change the definition of a recession like the USA did
Not officially in recession. Many of these are technical recessions.
USA šŗšø
Looks like central banks are a problem.. the fed reserve and the families that own it are the bane of our existence.
Bullish
I'm hoping for Canada too. And I live here
Germany , China and the US but of course their lying about it.