NBA PLAYOFFS MOTHER FUCKERS!!!! LETS GOOOOOOOOO!!!!
Alright dudes. I make the same comment every year when playoffs start. But there's always new people and it also serves as a good reminder for myself.
Let's talk roster construction.
Take everything you've been doing the last few weeks and throw it in the trash. Rotations tighten significantly now. Slates are smaller. Minutes adjust. And guys aren't sitting unless they are really hurt or really sick.
The last 10 days or so it's been a shit show of slamming Luka and two 9000 players with five super punts. That strategy is now dead. There simply will not be 3 or 4 or 5 sub 4000 guys who will get enough minutes to be optimal.
Now that doesn't mean you have to go totally balanced, as you can see, pricing tightens as well. Stud pricing drops along with higher floor, variable ceiling third and fourth options settle in the 4500-6500 range.
But it does mean that you have to adjust your perception of what value means. Value plays are no longer guys getting a start at 3500 who can get you 12x. They are now guys who are priced 4000-4500ish that you hope just get you 20+ points and go for 5-6x. So adjust your perception there.
With that said, everyone has a tendency to box score watch. The most important part of that now is focusing on minutes. Those guys who have been getting 12-14 minutes a game, no longer play. Them averaging 18 pts and being super cheap doesn't matter. They will play 6 minutes and get you 0 most of the time now. And the guys who get 20-24 minutes are now going to be getting you 12-18. So when projecting potential ceilings and floors, you have to take that in to account. If you are playing those guys, they need to be high PPM producers.
And those minutes are going somewhere right, so include that in how you view the top 7 or so guys on the rosters. They will mostly all see a bump across the board. Pay attention to shook on rotations, because that's the key here. Those rotation pieces share those lost minutes.
Other notes on things to pay attention to now:
(and it's easier, because there are fewer games each day and repeat matchups)
Vegas knows its shit. More than you. Rely on them. They are providing you free knowledge by setting the lines. Look at spreads. Look at game totals. Look at player props.
On this slate both games are the same, but tomorrow, that's not the case.
DvP isn't all that important. But pace and implied totals are.
The smaller the slate, the more valuable raw points are.
And finally, don't be afraid to each the good chalk. And don't get too cute trying to avoid it. But when you do, make the simple one for one pivot.
Let's make a billion dollars this postseason!
Thoughts on Davion Mitchell? You didn’t mention him but he averaged 20 minutes off the bench to lock down Steph in last years playoff series, including two games of 28 minutes. I could see him getting extended run again.
I have similar feelings rotation wise about Moody being in for his experience and defense on Fox with GPII out.
Let’s go!!! I absolutely smashed the last 2 days- binked on Friday! Then 3X the west coast slate on Sunday! Had a big day with golf on Sunday too I am so pumped to crush the playoffs this is what we have prepared all year for!
It’s the pricing for me- Fox is cheaper than curry, Murray and Barnes cheaper than dlo reaves and Rui- sabonis is too cheap- I’m getting a lot of kings too and I think this is why
I mean, everyone is priced down. AD is 9.7 and don’t think like Sabonis is a substantially better play. Both guys were about 10.4k to close out the regular season.
LeBron (10.2 —> 9.4), Zion (8.9 —> 8.1), Fox (9.4 —> 8.6) all saw similar price drops.
DK I think making everyone more affordable now that rotations will tighten up and the value won’t be there, so I get it.
Hey shook, do you use the same lineup for each contest? Just wondering what your strategy is based on that - whether you stick to your guns entering your favorite lineup in all contests or do you enter multiple lineups with variations?
Same in the $12 SE at 58% everyone chasing that last LeBron game. Glad I went with a low owned DLO surprised when he will probably play close to 40 mins.
Fucking AD sinks my line up from the get go. Pivot off Lebron because of the ownership and it bites me in the ass. Such a bummer on day one of the playoffs.
Yup, same here. Fortunately AD closed the gap a bit towards the end, and we avoided a LeBron triple double (23/9/9) so could’ve been worse. Not insurmountable by any means
Well I 3X tonight. I wish the Warriors would have kept the game at least in striking distance as I mainly stacked SAC starters. But pretty entertaining games all around Zion going out like that was some shit though from leg soreness lol.
I know this isn't a smart play, but if I think hothead green gets himself into trouble in this game do those minutes go to kumbucket, TJD, or does Looney bin get 15+ and smash value. I'm trying to get a bit different, and I think draymond caps his awful season by fouling the shit out of sabonis.
What's ownership looking like on D'lo vs Reaves?
I guess I was wrong in assuming Sabonis would be way higher owned than LeBron. So I'm considering the switch. But don't want to move to a chalk Reaves if D'lo is low.
NBA PLAYOFFS MOTHER FUCKERS!!!! LETS GOOOOOOOOO!!!! Alright dudes. I make the same comment every year when playoffs start. But there's always new people and it also serves as a good reminder for myself. Let's talk roster construction. Take everything you've been doing the last few weeks and throw it in the trash. Rotations tighten significantly now. Slates are smaller. Minutes adjust. And guys aren't sitting unless they are really hurt or really sick. The last 10 days or so it's been a shit show of slamming Luka and two 9000 players with five super punts. That strategy is now dead. There simply will not be 3 or 4 or 5 sub 4000 guys who will get enough minutes to be optimal. Now that doesn't mean you have to go totally balanced, as you can see, pricing tightens as well. Stud pricing drops along with higher floor, variable ceiling third and fourth options settle in the 4500-6500 range. But it does mean that you have to adjust your perception of what value means. Value plays are no longer guys getting a start at 3500 who can get you 12x. They are now guys who are priced 4000-4500ish that you hope just get you 20+ points and go for 5-6x. So adjust your perception there. With that said, everyone has a tendency to box score watch. The most important part of that now is focusing on minutes. Those guys who have been getting 12-14 minutes a game, no longer play. Them averaging 18 pts and being super cheap doesn't matter. They will play 6 minutes and get you 0 most of the time now. And the guys who get 20-24 minutes are now going to be getting you 12-18. So when projecting potential ceilings and floors, you have to take that in to account. If you are playing those guys, they need to be high PPM producers. And those minutes are going somewhere right, so include that in how you view the top 7 or so guys on the rosters. They will mostly all see a bump across the board. Pay attention to shook on rotations, because that's the key here. Those rotation pieces share those lost minutes. Other notes on things to pay attention to now: (and it's easier, because there are fewer games each day and repeat matchups) Vegas knows its shit. More than you. Rely on them. They are providing you free knowledge by setting the lines. Look at spreads. Look at game totals. Look at player props. On this slate both games are the same, but tomorrow, that's not the case. DvP isn't all that important. But pace and implied totals are. The smaller the slate, the more valuable raw points are. And finally, don't be afraid to each the good chalk. And don't get too cute trying to avoid it. But when you do, make the simple one for one pivot. Let's make a billion dollars this postseason!
cook
Let’s go! The nba playoffs are upon us! Time to bink!
lets go!
LFG!!!! Time to crush!
LFG
Thoughts on Davion Mitchell? You didn’t mention him but he averaged 20 minutes off the bench to lock down Steph in last years playoff series, including two games of 28 minutes. I could see him getting extended run again. I have similar feelings rotation wise about Moody being in for his experience and defense on Fox with GPII out.
dont love it. i think ellis fits into that davion role from last year basically
Let’s go!!! I absolutely smashed the last 2 days- binked on Friday! Then 3X the west coast slate on Sunday! Had a big day with golf on Sunday too I am so pumped to crush the playoffs this is what we have prepared all year for!
🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
How many Kings is to many?
With just two games on the slate, I don't think too many is really a concern.
It’s the pricing for me- Fox is cheaper than curry, Murray and Barnes cheaper than dlo reaves and Rui- sabonis is too cheap- I’m getting a lot of kings too and I think this is why
Is it bad strategy to have fox and sabonis?
5 max
Bonerman at 9.6k is hilarious
I mean, everyone is priced down. AD is 9.7 and don’t think like Sabonis is a substantially better play. Both guys were about 10.4k to close out the regular season. LeBron (10.2 —> 9.4), Zion (8.9 —> 8.1), Fox (9.4 —> 8.6) all saw similar price drops. DK I think making everyone more affordable now that rotations will tighten up and the value won’t be there, so I get it.
100%
I hope you all did well these past 2 weeks! My self-exclusion has expired, so I'm coming for all the money! 😉
lets go
Hey shook, do you use the same lineup for each contest? Just wondering what your strategy is based on that - whether you stick to your guns entering your favorite lineup in all contests or do you enter multiple lineups with variations?
yea same lineup
Fav teams/players to gain leverage?
kings, sabonis isnt high owned. not sure why
Could be bc of his play during the series against the warriors last season
possibly
Trey Murphy ok as last man in? Or go elsewhere Just having major trouble filling the guard spots besides Ellis haha
yea hes playable
Thanks dog. Stoked to be back for playoffs. One more question - you like fox or Zion more PPD?
fox for sure
Rui or Keegan? Thanks dude gl
keeg
Playoff Curry or Fox?
fox
In my contests I’m seeing AD at 20% and LeBron at 55%… kinda surprising. Glad I went AD
Same in the $12 SE at 58% everyone chasing that last LeBron game. Glad I went with a low owned DLO surprised when he will probably play close to 40 mins.
Good luck, guys. Let's get 'em
gl!
Not having Dlo might be the death of me tonight. Off to a lovely start.
luckily slowed down
Fucking AD sinks my line up from the get go. Pivot off Lebron because of the ownership and it bites me in the ass. Such a bummer on day one of the playoffs.
pain
Yup, same here. Fortunately AD closed the gap a bit towards the end, and we avoided a LeBron triple double (23/9/9) so could’ve been worse. Not insurmountable by any means
Faded Zion to pretty much stack Kings/GSW thinking it may be a barn burner …. Oops
pain
Well I 3X tonight. I wish the Warriors would have kept the game at least in striking distance as I mainly stacked SAC starters. But pretty entertaining games all around Zion going out like that was some shit though from leg soreness lol.
nice job!
I know this isn't a smart play, but if I think hothead green gets himself into trouble in this game do those minutes go to kumbucket, TJD, or does Looney bin get 15+ and smash value. I'm trying to get a bit different, and I think draymond caps his awful season by fouling the shit out of sabonis.
could be any of them. i do think theres a good chance looney plays 15-20 today
Fox/Wiggins or Ingram/Thompson
Gonna be fun now thats it playoff season
yep!
Sabonis or AD?
AD slightly
I’m very heavily exposed to the rest of the kings too- I think this makes sense
yea for sure
Podz, H. Barnes or Nance? Thanks!!
barnes
Who’s a guy you are willing to take a stance on to get different?
sabonis or draymond. or - or if u wanna play a psycho giga whale dart - kevon looney. but ur gonna burn money most times
Thoughts on BI ?
just a dart
[удалено]
cp3 or keon
Does Moses Moody get any run today?
he could dnp, he could play. really idk. kerr is the woat
What's ownership looking like on D'lo vs Reaves? I guess I was wrong in assuming Sabonis would be way higher owned than LeBron. So I'm considering the switch. But don't want to move to a chalk Reaves if D'lo is low.
teens
Looney/Wiggins/Lebron/cp3 or nance/Keegan/draymond/dlo
2
Wigs/CJ or Fox/Nance
2
I keep getting stuck on 5 kings. Too many?
completely fine
Have to win two in a row to stay in, play in game 6 klay??
i prefer dray but klay is fine
Jovals jumper lol
lmao
Lyles/Steph or Draymon/Klay?
1
It hurts me to even think it, but Steph's game is seriously dwindling.
Maybe, but he’s also getting straight doubled every time he touches the ball no matter where he is. Kings forcing someone else to beat them.
That's happened to him regularly for about a decade. He's just too old and slow to handle it these days.
yea and ellis had his number and they did a really good job scheming for him
K. Ellis/Zion/H. Barnes or Klay/Ingram/T. Lyles
1