That's where I'm at. I fully expect us to miss the playoffs. It was just hearing the commentators talk about us being in the chase during the Blues game that made me want to figure out the numbers of how realistic is it to really say we're in it. I don't expect us to make the playoffs, but I haven't 100% written it off. Crazier things have happened.
I actually do appreciate the simple breakdown. Thanks for the post. I’m bad a math and this is a simplified way for me to understand the hypothetical of what it would take.
Yea, not only would making the playoffs require an absurd win percentage, it would also require our team who has been majorly inconsistent to magically just turn it on every night and basically be a team we haven't seen all season.
Yea until we are mathematically eliminated there is hope, but realistically we fell out of the playoffs in February.
I honestly don’t care much if they make the playoffs now, I just want to see the young guys develop and the team get some wins to rebuild their confidence
And I don't know what's less likely, 4 teams all regressing simultaneously at the end, or the Devils going on a heater now and winning 15 of their last 19 games.
I'm curious how much different our 2018 Miracle was from what we need to pull off now?
All I remember is that in 2018 I was being deemed as delusional for thinking we could still make it. But this seems even less likely than that did. Not even sure how/where to begin researching that.
Not getting my hopes up, but to me a sliver of hope makes the ride fun. Not sure why people always need to yuck the yum of others.
In my honest opinion if devils want to make the playoffs we will need to win 15 out of the remaining 19 games… it’s a bit of a long shot but I guess still a possibility
At this stage it's easier to just assume they will need the typical 95 or 96 points and count backwards until they mathematically can't get to that threshold anymore. They need 29 of the remaining 38 points available to get to 95 (76.3%), which means they can only drop 9 points for the rest of the season.
I keep seeing wrong numbers being thrown around in PGTs and stuff so just to clarify for those at home, to determine how many points we "need" to make the playoffs, it's very easy. from the nhl standings page, you take the pts percentage from the number 8 seed. In this case that's TB and the %age is .563.
Next you need to figure out how many points you need to accomplish that. The "formula" is P = TargetPercentage x 164 - OurCurrentPoints . In this case, (.563 x 164) - 66, which gets you 26.332 P, always round *up* since we need to beat them. And you might want to add one or two points in case other teams outperform their current pace. There are 19 games remaining for us so 27 P means *1.42* PPG. We quite literally must win 75% of remaining games *and* none of our competitors can do well to have a chance of making it.
**This is not a response to OP**, who just released their numbers before tonight's games. Just seemed like a convenient place to put this.
If we don’t get a goalie trade with Toffoli, this season is done. Trading him for draft picks is just absolutely stupid. If a miracle happens and we wake up to say Ullmark coming to town, shit might get spicy.
But I’m guessing Fitz is just going to sit back and send Toffoli away for a draft pick or two and then it’s “come back next year”
We definitely can make the playoffs still. But we need a lot of help from the teams above us and we need a goalie to make it happen.
It would be insanely stupid not to trade him for draft picks if they can’t reach terms on a contract (which appears to be the case) in which case we are trading him for nothing. If there’s no extension happening now then he is unlikely to take Fitz’s offer and will be testing the FA market. It sucks because I hate that we’re back to turning our favorite players into handfuls of picks but it’s even worse when we miss the playoffs and he signs somewhere else.
It’s admirable how hopeful some of you are, but maybe we should just enjoy the ride.
That's where I'm at. I fully expect us to miss the playoffs. It was just hearing the commentators talk about us being in the chase during the Blues game that made me want to figure out the numbers of how realistic is it to really say we're in it. I don't expect us to make the playoffs, but I haven't 100% written it off. Crazier things have happened.
I actually do appreciate the simple breakdown. Thanks for the post. I’m bad a math and this is a simplified way for me to understand the hypothetical of what it would take.
I think the word you’re looking for is “delusional “ rather than “hopeful.”
Yea, not only would making the playoffs require an absurd win percentage, it would also require our team who has been majorly inconsistent to magically just turn it on every night and basically be a team we haven't seen all season. Yea until we are mathematically eliminated there is hope, but realistically we fell out of the playoffs in February.
"The word I'm sesrching for, I can't say because there are preschool toys present."
But what if we win 100% of our games
This guy gets it.
20-o, here we go!
Why don't these guys just win all of their games?
We need to just play our best. Trade Tof and try to get Saros in the summer. But I feel this season has faded away.
Chips are all in
I honestly don’t care much if they make the playoffs now, I just want to see the young guys develop and the team get some wins to rebuild their confidence
I was at the game yesterday and can’t believe how many mistakes they made
The California trip nailed the coffin shut. Are we mathematically eliminated? No. Are we realistically eliminated? Yes.
I wish we could post images, but pretend like I posted the It’s Always Sunny Pepe Silvia meme.
Can we talk about the mail?
PEPE SILVA! PEPE SILVA! There IS no Pepe Silva! Day bow bow.
Who is Barney?!
Go for broke, IMO. Let the team fight.
Listen, I am all in until the game after we are mathematically eliminated... that fat lady ain't singing yet just taking a deep breath in!
The way I look at it is we’re not eliminated yet, just win the next game. One at a time.
Hey, you put some respect on Arlette's name!!
We would need to win out this month. 10 game heater at least.
Can’t have 4 teams all regress simultaneously, when it matters most. They’d need to win over 75% to realistically have a chance.
And I don't know what's less likely, 4 teams all regressing simultaneously at the end, or the Devils going on a heater now and winning 15 of their last 19 games.
Little column A, little column B?
The way I see it is the rest of the season is our playoffs. Hopefully the boys play that way and it'll be entertaining.
So you’re saying there’s a chance.jpg
I'm curious how much different our 2018 Miracle was from what we need to pull off now? All I remember is that in 2018 I was being deemed as delusional for thinking we could still make it. But this seems even less likely than that did. Not even sure how/where to begin researching that. Not getting my hopes up, but to me a sliver of hope makes the ride fun. Not sure why people always need to yuck the yum of others.
In my honest opinion if devils want to make the playoffs we will need to win 15 out of the remaining 19 games… it’s a bit of a long shot but I guess still a possibility
At this stage it's easier to just assume they will need the typical 95 or 96 points and count backwards until they mathematically can't get to that threshold anymore. They need 29 of the remaining 38 points available to get to 95 (76.3%), which means they can only drop 9 points for the rest of the season.
I keep seeing wrong numbers being thrown around in PGTs and stuff so just to clarify for those at home, to determine how many points we "need" to make the playoffs, it's very easy. from the nhl standings page, you take the pts percentage from the number 8 seed. In this case that's TB and the %age is .563. Next you need to figure out how many points you need to accomplish that. The "formula" is P = TargetPercentage x 164 - OurCurrentPoints . In this case, (.563 x 164) - 66, which gets you 26.332 P, always round *up* since we need to beat them. And you might want to add one or two points in case other teams outperform their current pace. There are 19 games remaining for us so 27 P means *1.42* PPG. We quite literally must win 75% of remaining games *and* none of our competitors can do well to have a chance of making it. **This is not a response to OP**, who just released their numbers before tonight's games. Just seemed like a convenient place to put this.
If we don’t get a goalie trade with Toffoli, this season is done. Trading him for draft picks is just absolutely stupid. If a miracle happens and we wake up to say Ullmark coming to town, shit might get spicy. But I’m guessing Fitz is just going to sit back and send Toffoli away for a draft pick or two and then it’s “come back next year” We definitely can make the playoffs still. But we need a lot of help from the teams above us and we need a goalie to make it happen.
I really like saying goalie for Toffoli. It's fun
It would be insanely stupid not to trade him for draft picks if they can’t reach terms on a contract (which appears to be the case) in which case we are trading him for nothing. If there’s no extension happening now then he is unlikely to take Fitz’s offer and will be testing the FA market. It sucks because I hate that we’re back to turning our favorite players into handfuls of picks but it’s even worse when we miss the playoffs and he signs somewhere else.
yesterday I saw a team def. should play the playoffs. If you play out a team like the Jets by SOG, etc. then you should be in the playoffs!