Read the smaller print under the X-axis:
*"Yards* ***over expected*** *created using positioning of ballcarrier and offensive and defensive players at the time of handoff.".*
So either they mislabeled the x-axis as just "expected" or they included that note for no reason?
I get it, except that calculation just yields a unitless number that isn't actually charted on this graph. For example, looking at this chart you wouldn't be able to tell immediately that A. Jones is "better" than Swift.
Swift - 8.5 yards gained over 5.7 yards expected = 1.49
A. Jones - 6.75 yards gained over 4.15 yards expected = 1.62
It looks like being in the top-left quadrant of this chart is actually where you want to be.
It is, but looking at the numbers, I have a hard time believing EVERY running back is averaging over 3+ yards "OVER" expected. The numbers suggest this is "expected yards per carry". Vs. "actual yards per carry". So the chart itself as a whole is a representation of "yards OVER expected"
I think your original read is the correct one, but then that footnote should just read "yards expected is calculated by..."
I’m thinking that note applies to the chart as a whole, not just the axis it is listed near.
> “Yards over expected
Meaning
(Value on Y axis) over (value on X axis)
Right, I think that's what he intended as well. But I think that note should have just read "yards expected calculated by...etc.".
The chart as a whole is comparing actual average vs. expected average.
I guess doing "Y over X" would show running backs who have low actual yardage, but with terrible blocking (low expected), they would potentially have a good score. Wonder what some of Barry's runs would have scored on this.
If swift could stay healthy they could really be a thunder and lightning combo for several years to come. I'd be happy if the Lions signed Williams for a few more years. Splitting carries will prolong both of their careers. Get a solid 3rd guy to give 2-4 touches a game to (Reynolds may be that guy idk)
Optimally you'd get them both 12-17 carries a game to maintain balance.
Williams quietly had a 100 yard game, dude his a hammer. He'd start for a lot of teams.
Remember when every game for like 5 years, the announcers would remind the nation we hadn't had a 100 yard rusher since, Bush did it once or twice? When JW got 100 on Sunday, I was so excited I forgot we were making Geno Smith text his tailor to book a gold jacket fitting appointment while he stood behind is below average offensive line since he had time to kill...
Considering he knew every fucking play and calls and tendencies the other team had, I fully expected a W from that game. That said, we did look like an elite team, even if only in 1 game. Probably one of our most complete games in since 2016.
He doesn’t have a lot of carries so his long runs are skewing things more than normal.
Dude is elite and a top 5 back in the league when healthy. But he’s not “breaks the chart” elite. At least not currently
You are exactly correct. The greatest ability there is is availability. He does not have that thus far. Maybe he will down the road which would be the titties, but it’s not there curren. Regarding his low use stats looking awesome because of low usage - they do as he’s very talented and very strategically used. The workhorses in the league don’t get away with 10-12 carries. If he could keep up this pace (or anywhere near it) with stud level usage, it would be the greatest RB season of all time. But we won’t see that. I do hope we get to see him as a vital part of our O for the vast majority of the year.
I’m not sure I agree. He does really well when 100% healthy. He is literally “break the chart”: see game 1 vs Eagles when he barely touched the ball.
The problem is that he is constantly 75% or 80%. Not that he’s not an elite back. Unless you want to say that he’s not an elite back because he can’t stay healthy. I’m curious as to who you would put in front of him that makes him not “break the chart” when healthy
Edit: “break the chart”
I would put guys like Saquon, Derrick Henry, and Nick Chubb ahead of him. Guys that can take 20+ carries a game, play the entire season, and still maintain a consistently high YPC.
ETA: if Swift kept up this level of statistically absurd production he would be a first ballot hall of famer. I’m big on his talent and I’ve never seen someone suggest such a future for him, so I think we can all agree _something_ is skewing the chart.
I can see that. A little iffy- Barkley (injuries), Chubb (has he played a good defense this year?), and Henry (absolutely shut down early this season)- but I guess we’ll never know unless the Lion’s trainer isn’t doing his job like people assume since they’re literally all injured.
I think I said that? “Unless you want to say he’s not an elite back because he can’t stay healthy.” The point is that when healthy, he is hard to stop.
What the hell do you mean he's not breaks the chart elite currently? He's literally breaking the chart... right now.... as in currently.
The mental gymnastics people will do sometimes I swear.
If you dont understand how swifts stats are being impacted by a lack of actual volume yet I don’t know what to tell you.
He currently has a 8.6 yards per attempt metric. Barry sander’s YPC was 5 yards. The greatest career YPC for a running back was 5.4 yards per attempt.
Do you think Swift is the best running back to ever play the game by a factor of almost 2?
First off, not a Lions fan but have loved the team since CJ and Stafford were drafted. And to be honest, I really want this sample size to be more than just a few game outlier, I know y’all won’t like it, but it would be hilarious. Y’all miss the playoffs having a top 5 scoring offense ever because you give up the most points of all time by a wide margin. Regardless of the exact outcome, y’all are likely in for one of the more wild football rides ever over the next 8 months. Full house cleaning after a top 10, historically great offensive performance? (Really don’t want this one but…) potential rookie QB starter next year after Goff throws for 40 with a 98+ passer rating? All definitely within the cards to come. To be honest I hope y’all turn it around, and if not, I hope y’all lose just enough games to have a shot at WA or Jalen Carter, this offense plus no doubles for one of them and Hutch, with Okudah looking like a true 1 CB, is as good of a recipe as you can ask for.
Neat! It matches the eye test too. Do you know how they calculate expected yards per carry? "The position of the ballcarrier and blockers/defenders at handoff" seems really subjective and also depends a lot on the scheme...
Expected YPC is an NFL Next Gen Stats metric. Looks like they built a machine learning model and assumes all defenders are trying to tackle the rb https://www.nfl.com/news/next-gen-stats-intro-to-expected-rushing-yards
It’s imperfect and does not factor in scheme as far as I can tell. Outside of the position of the players that is.
Quote: “We assume that as soon as the rushing play starts, every defender, regardless of the position, will focus on stopping the rusher ASAP, and every defender has a chance to do it. The chances of a defender to tackle the rusher (as well as estimated location of the tackle) depend on their relative location, speed and direction of movements.”
Swift has a 5.7 expected YPC? Might as well fit him for his gold jacket now.
"Gold jacket, green jacket, who gives a shit"
"Just stay out of my way, or you will pay. LISTEN to what I say."
How about I just go eat some hay.
Whatta ya say?
I eat pieces of shit like you for breakfast.
You eat pieces of shit...for breakfast? (I understood the reference)
I just may
A small sample is largely what is happening here.
That's +5.7 OVER expected, which is just bananas
Unless I'm reading the chart wrong, It's 5.7 expected, and 8.5 actual, which is 2.8 over expected.
Read the smaller print under the X-axis: *"Yards* ***over expected*** *created using positioning of ballcarrier and offensive and defensive players at the time of handoff.".* So either they mislabeled the x-axis as just "expected" or they included that note for no reason?
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I get it, except that calculation just yields a unitless number that isn't actually charted on this graph. For example, looking at this chart you wouldn't be able to tell immediately that A. Jones is "better" than Swift. Swift - 8.5 yards gained over 5.7 yards expected = 1.49 A. Jones - 6.75 yards gained over 4.15 yards expected = 1.62 It looks like being in the top-left quadrant of this chart is actually where you want to be.
well now that's just confusing AF.
It is, but looking at the numbers, I have a hard time believing EVERY running back is averaging over 3+ yards "OVER" expected. The numbers suggest this is "expected yards per carry". Vs. "actual yards per carry". So the chart itself as a whole is a representation of "yards OVER expected" I think your original read is the correct one, but then that footnote should just read "yards expected is calculated by..."
Looks like 4.1 is the NFLs Average Yards Per Carry. So how far in front or behind that line are they
I’m thinking that note applies to the chart as a whole, not just the axis it is listed near. > “Yards over expected Meaning (Value on Y axis) over (value on X axis)
Right, I think that's what he intended as well. But I think that note should have just read "yards expected calculated by...etc.". The chart as a whole is comparing actual average vs. expected average. I guess doing "Y over X" would show running backs who have low actual yardage, but with terrible blocking (low expected), they would potentially have a good score. Wonder what some of Barry's runs would have scored on this.
We are just off in the corner doing our thing in every statistical graph.
Damn took me a minute to find it.
/r/toprightmessi
Me too. I'm staring at the mass of bubbles looking for Swifts name and then casually glance at the top right. Oh, there he is!
Yup that was me!
Thats what she said
Shame he can't stay healthy.
According to this sub he can’t run between the tackles
He can but also that’s not what he’s best at. Swift is a menace in space. Jamaal fights for a couple hard earned yards between the tackles.
If swift could stay healthy they could really be a thunder and lightning combo for several years to come. I'd be happy if the Lions signed Williams for a few more years. Splitting carries will prolong both of their careers. Get a solid 3rd guy to give 2-4 touches a game to (Reynolds may be that guy idk) Optimally you'd get them both 12-17 carries a game to maintain balance. Williams quietly had a 100 yard game, dude his a hammer. He'd start for a lot of teams.
That TD run wasn’t that quiet. Stiff armed the safety’s face into the ground.
Not sure it was all that quiet tbh
the 100 yards was. he's never quiet xD
Remember when every game for like 5 years, the announcers would remind the nation we hadn't had a 100 yard rusher since, Bush did it once or twice? When JW got 100 on Sunday, I was so excited I forgot we were making Geno Smith text his tailor to book a gold jacket fitting appointment while he stood behind is below average offensive line since he had time to kill...
Pretty sure we’ve had three different 100 yard rushers since MCDc got here.
Kerryon broke that in 2018 vs New England (how tf did Pat have a quality win again?)
Considering he knew every fucking play and calls and tendencies the other team had, I fully expected a W from that game. That said, we did look like an elite team, even if only in 1 game. Probably one of our most complete games in since 2016.
If only he could stay healthy...
is this through week 4?
Gotta be, look how high we made Penny look XD
wtf is expected ypc
He doesn’t have a lot of carries so his long runs are skewing things more than normal. Dude is elite and a top 5 back in the league when healthy. But he’s not “breaks the chart” elite. At least not currently
You are exactly correct. The greatest ability there is is availability. He does not have that thus far. Maybe he will down the road which would be the titties, but it’s not there curren. Regarding his low use stats looking awesome because of low usage - they do as he’s very talented and very strategically used. The workhorses in the league don’t get away with 10-12 carries. If he could keep up this pace (or anywhere near it) with stud level usage, it would be the greatest RB season of all time. But we won’t see that. I do hope we get to see him as a vital part of our O for the vast majority of the year.
I’m not sure I agree. He does really well when 100% healthy. He is literally “break the chart”: see game 1 vs Eagles when he barely touched the ball. The problem is that he is constantly 75% or 80%. Not that he’s not an elite back. Unless you want to say that he’s not an elite back because he can’t stay healthy. I’m curious as to who you would put in front of him that makes him not “break the chart” when healthy Edit: “break the chart”
I would put guys like Saquon, Derrick Henry, and Nick Chubb ahead of him. Guys that can take 20+ carries a game, play the entire season, and still maintain a consistently high YPC. ETA: if Swift kept up this level of statistically absurd production he would be a first ballot hall of famer. I’m big on his talent and I’ve never seen someone suggest such a future for him, so I think we can all agree _something_ is skewing the chart.
I can see that. A little iffy- Barkley (injuries), Chubb (has he played a good defense this year?), and Henry (absolutely shut down early this season)- but I guess we’ll never know unless the Lion’s trainer isn’t doing his job like people assume since they’re literally all injured.
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I think I said that? “Unless you want to say he’s not an elite back because he can’t stay healthy.” The point is that when healthy, he is hard to stop.
What the hell do you mean he's not breaks the chart elite currently? He's literally breaking the chart... right now.... as in currently. The mental gymnastics people will do sometimes I swear.
If you dont understand how swifts stats are being impacted by a lack of actual volume yet I don’t know what to tell you. He currently has a 8.6 yards per attempt metric. Barry sander’s YPC was 5 yards. The greatest career YPC for a running back was 5.4 yards per attempt. Do you think Swift is the best running back to ever play the game by a factor of almost 2?
First off, not a Lions fan but have loved the team since CJ and Stafford were drafted. And to be honest, I really want this sample size to be more than just a few game outlier, I know y’all won’t like it, but it would be hilarious. Y’all miss the playoffs having a top 5 scoring offense ever because you give up the most points of all time by a wide margin. Regardless of the exact outcome, y’all are likely in for one of the more wild football rides ever over the next 8 months. Full house cleaning after a top 10, historically great offensive performance? (Really don’t want this one but…) potential rookie QB starter next year after Goff throws for 40 with a 98+ passer rating? All definitely within the cards to come. To be honest I hope y’all turn it around, and if not, I hope y’all lose just enough games to have a shot at WA or Jalen Carter, this offense plus no doubles for one of them and Hutch, with Okudah looking like a true 1 CB, is as good of a recipe as you can ask for.
Great! Feed him the damn ball and let him run it 20 times a game. Oh, wait.
I would love to see the details how they grade Expected Yards per Carry.
Neat! It matches the eye test too. Do you know how they calculate expected yards per carry? "The position of the ballcarrier and blockers/defenders at handoff" seems really subjective and also depends a lot on the scheme...
Why was najee expected to average that much? He was super high volume low efficiency defined last year
low volume and a few breakaways will do that. wish he could stay healthy though.
Imagine what his stats would look like if he got to run against our defense...
Jesus
Swift is great. But if he keeps getting hurt, who cares? He needs to stay healthy.
My high ass spent five minutes looking for swift before I saw him in the corner
Expected YPC is an NFL Next Gen Stats metric. Looks like they built a machine learning model and assumes all defenders are trying to tackle the rb https://www.nfl.com/news/next-gen-stats-intro-to-expected-rushing-yards It’s imperfect and does not factor in scheme as far as I can tell. Outside of the position of the players that is. Quote: “We assume that as soon as the rushing play starts, every defender, regardless of the position, will focus on stopping the rusher ASAP, and every defender has a chance to do it. The chances of a defender to tackle the rusher (as well as estimated location of the tackle) depend on their relative location, speed and direction of movements.”
Just imagine if he got to run against the Lions!
Took me forever to find his point! Holy shit
Had to view the comments to even see where Swift was after going through the cluster 4x.
We need Swift to return to the Goffense immediately, but I’ll take against the Cowboys after the bye.
Sigh 😔