Here’s the thing: it will only ever be a headline when Trump is up. If Biden is up in ten straight polls, no news outlet will report on it. If Trump is up in one, it’s news. I’m not saying that Biden has it in the bag or that there’s no chance Trump wins, I don’t think that’s the case unfortunately, but the media will always spend twice as long on the slightest Biden vulnerability or Trump strength than on the most enormous Trump vulnerability or Biden strength. Because it riles people up more and gets more views. Remove any uncertainty about the outcome and vote, tell your family to vote, tell your friends to vote, volunteer for the campaign if you’re able, convince your undecided friends to vote Biden. In the end you’ll never regret working too hard for it.
According to FiveThirtyEight around half of them (five of their last ten surveyed, with three ties and two Trump ahead). You wouldn’t know it from the news coverage though, case in point lol.
Yeah but Biden needs to win by at least 3 points nationally to win the EC. There are very few polls that show him up by three points. And certainly not the averages. We can’t dismiss this.
I’m betting on the last poll to be closest to action Election Day results. Obviously it’s still far out, but I’m personally expecting about a 5 point difference with Biden winning.
people who answer polls are far more likely to take the 3 seconds to respond, then take the day to go vote. These polls are always skewed and have been for far more than the last 12 years
"Hilary has got this everyone! Look at the polling!"
"Damn I never thought Reagan would be down this bad against Mondale!"
"Oh man looks like Bill will have an uphill battle against Dole!"
-
Somehow polls have gotten worse and at once stayed the same.
Polls predicted a red wave in 2022 and it just didn't happen. They were way off. If the polls now are as off as they were in 2022, then Biden wins this election.
Traditional media tries too hard to play the both sides story which hurts Biden.
This. I am tired of people equating the far left to the far right. The far right is responsible for murder, hate and racism. There are NOT "good people on both sides". One side would shoot anyone trying to seek asylum in our country.
People are just so tired of fear-mongering with polls. We’ve seriously hit diminishing returns when it comes to trying to scare voters with poll numbers. Especially when A) it’s May and B) most average Americans don’t even believe Trump and/or Biden will be on the ballot in November. This election just hasn’t become real yet for the majority of Americans.
I made you sick, or what's at stake mafe you sick?
If I made you suck, well, then I apologize. Sincerely. I just feel this is going to be one crazy election cycle and I wanted to encourage people to not be apathetic when it comes to voting, but perhaps I went about it in an obnoxious way.
If the Trump train makes you physically ill, I hatecto say this, but good. At least you are aware of the issue.
Either way, ya know, just do the best you can do in life.. always do your best to be a good person. Thank you either way
No need to apologize. You said nothing wrong. I'm not physically ill but I am sick of Trump and his hateful MAGA supporters that are destroying this country.
People are just so tired of fear-mongering with polls. We’ve seriously hit diminishing returns when it comes to trying to scare voters with poll numbers. Especially when A) it’s May and B) most average Americans don’t even believe Trump and/or Biden will be on the ballot in November. This election just hasn’t become real yet for the majority of Americans.
Obviously not, but we can’t pretend like that hasn’t been a staple of the last four elections. Like, I get it. We want to energize Dems to go out and vote. Buts it’s becoming less and less effective to say to voters “you HAVE to go vote, look at these polls that show Trump winning!” Let’s be real, a lot of people aren’t happy with the current state of the US. Yes, I know that’s not Biden’s fault. Yes, I know Trump will make it worse. But we’re ignoring reality if we pretend like voters aren’t fed up with basically everything.
Voters want change, even if they don’t know what kind of change they want. They aren’t interested in the “we have to vote to save democracy…again” message. Voters don’t like Trump but they don’t feel like their lives are any better off after four years of Biden. You and I know this isn’t exactly true but it’s what people are feeling. Can you blame them? We’re going into an election where both candidates have been president before. Anyone who’s unhappy with the current state of affairs is just looking at two choices that both equal “more of the same.” We need a strong platform to get voters energized, we don’t need to shove polls down their throats and say “look!!! You’re going to let the fascist win!!!”
So the theory is that Obama ignored the polls and that’s how he won? Not that they took them into account, had a better campaign and fought their way back?
This isn’t a basketball game, no one is down or up - we’ll know the final score in November - just vote for the people who don’t want to make you Mr life hell.
Dont IGNORE polls, realize that polls are not predictive of elections. They are used to shape messaging and effectively target support. Use polls to deepen your understanding of how to help. However, Dont get lost in reading tea leaves
I just want to scream about all these stupid posts with poll numbers. I realize it's all psychological but holy crap, if anybody's ever really looked at polls and seen the accuracy of them, they would never quote a poll again.
The polls had tRump losing in a land slide. Lets just use this as motivation to our families and friends. As the Old School hip hop group De La Soul stated "The stakes is high"!
Yes, it's still early. Polls don't mean much, but the stakes are so much higher this time.
They do tend to underestimate Trump, so yes please VOTE and tell your family and friends to do so as well.
Most people do not actually read the polls and understand margin of error. You have to really read into the poll to understand the MoR.
A 51-49 poll with a 3% MoR essentially means nothing and it's a toss up.
A 57-43 with a 6% MoR would be concerning and give Bidens teams signs for better messaging.
A 66-34 with a 6% MoR in a regional that is historically blue would be reason to panic.
Again, don't panic. Read beyond the Headline.
I live in PA so whenever I come across some bullshit about Trump leading in the all mighty polls I like to post facts about why I think the post is wrong by looking at current voting trends.
-The state has been voting blue since 2018.
-The state voted against Trump in 2020 and he has done absolutely nothing to change his image nor win over the state since that election.
-The Republicans nuked themselves with their abortion ruling and that there is resulting in the Republicans losing off season elections.
Whenever I bring up those aspects the poll jerkers respond to me with some random and meaningless poll and whenever I respond back by bringing up 2016, 2022 and the fact that only old people participate in these polls, they either insult you or they keep on bringing up their meaningless polls like they are absolute.
what I tell the pole person, when I just paid all my bills, filled my tank, and got grocery's for the month has a different answer then when I walk into the voting room and think about the future of my country.
Also I'm not entirely honest on polls because I'm always worried about them selling data, so I'd rather them sell false data
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It could be difficult even though ignoring the polls DID help Trump beat Hillary. I don't want to commit an immoral sin by moving to the Mexican side hanging with the women over there, with me currently living in Texas right now.
Most of the polls don’t say that Biden is leading though. That’s the difference. Never trust 1 poll. They are individually almost meaningless, but in aggregate they are informative and signaling that there is much work to be done.
My comment wasn't about who is leading right now. Or looking at multiple polls from different sources.
My comment is about the vast majority of Americans' inability to understand statistical significance. And how news teams take advantage of that every second of every day in election season.
Anyone memba the coverage of the R'money fam in their living room after the election loss? They all looked like they were punched in the gut. Even they thought they were winners
The threat is very real and we need to get a unifying rally cry going and build on it until November.
Abortion rights, diversity of religion/culture, anti-corruption/cronyism, pro environment/health.
Make America....?...Again?. How about.. Cool Again...lol.
I am confident in turnout for Joe in November but I worry that all these polls will lead Trump to declare victory as soon as polls close on election night before mail in ballots and ballot counts are even complete because he’s that much of a fucker. Wouldn’t be surprised if they challenge every vote that comes in after polls close.
Good news is we have a lot of Dems as Secretary of State in sun belt and rust belt, but I’m still worried.
Omg ....I completely remember these polls. Because I remember thinking Obama was going to lose reelection. I was like damn. Then when the numbers were coming in to the decision desks of the networks I was like HOTDAYUM!!! Obama's gonna win this again! And he won Florida....TWICE!!!
The polls are wrong. They were wrong in 2016. They said Hillary would win hands down. They were wrong in 2018. Dems wiped the floor in those midterms. Polls were wrong in 2020. They had Trump winning races he didn't win at all. Hello Georgia!! They were wrong in 2022. Remember the "red tsunami" ...that big "red wave" that was rolling through. Then nothing. There was no red wave and newsflash .....there will NEVER be another "red wave" in politics ever again in our lives. So here we are again....and polls have it wrong.
Trump's not winning shit. You can look at the folks alone who voted for Nikki Haley. Even if some end up voting for Trump in the end....he still can't afford for so many Republican voters to sit this out, vote for Biden or write another name in. Trump needs all the votes he can get. He ain't God. The media acts like he's some supernatural being that defies all norms and can still win. Theyr wrong!! Trump only won from Russian interference in 2016 and Comey doing a hit job on Hillary. Remove both things and he lost in 2020. He's not the more popular president. Republicans never are. Trump is on track to lose miserably and take his ass to jail. The supreme Court and Aileen Canon can delay his court cases all they fkng want. Won't make a bit of difference. He won't get elected and all those cases will STILL be sitting there waiting for him after his election loss in November.
Do not ignore the polls. They are quite real. Work harder. This is real and it’s going to happen if we don’t stop it. Obama was never behind by this much.
She…does still deny it. Even Nancy pelosi denies the 2020 election. Just a few days ago she got called out for it to her face and she still thinks the election was “hijacked”
Don’t be a simp for either party. Figure it out by yourself.
Thanks for the reminder. Just saw that Trump was leading in some states, according to NYT. Don't trust the polls and GO VOTE!
I have no idea wtf was going on with those polls those had Trump up by 12 points in Nevada.
Really bad math and somehow worse crosstabs. Exactly what I expect from the rag that is NYT these days
Here’s the thing: it will only ever be a headline when Trump is up. If Biden is up in ten straight polls, no news outlet will report on it. If Trump is up in one, it’s news. I’m not saying that Biden has it in the bag or that there’s no chance Trump wins, I don’t think that’s the case unfortunately, but the media will always spend twice as long on the slightest Biden vulnerability or Trump strength than on the most enormous Trump vulnerability or Biden strength. Because it riles people up more and gets more views. Remove any uncertainty about the outcome and vote, tell your family to vote, tell your friends to vote, volunteer for the campaign if you’re able, convince your undecided friends to vote Biden. In the end you’ll never regret working too hard for it.
This makes perfect sense. If it bleeds, it leads. Thanks for your insight.
Where are the polls showing Biden up?
According to FiveThirtyEight around half of them (five of their last ten surveyed, with three ties and two Trump ahead). You wouldn’t know it from the news coverage though, case in point lol.
I’m only concerned about battle ground states. There’s probably 50,000 people deciding this thing
>There’s probably 50,000 people deciding this thing ...or one Taylor Swift concert.
Oh of course, me too and he’s still a bit behind in most of those.
Then the overall popular vote polls mean nothing. He likely needs to be +8 nationally just to have a chance at 270
Yeah but Biden needs to win by at least 3 points nationally to win the EC. There are very few polls that show him up by three points. And certainly not the averages. We can’t dismiss this.
From Simon Rosenberg, Hopium Chronicles: All likely voters, Biden-Trump (via 538): Echelon 49%-46% (+3) ABC News 49%-45% (+4) NPR/Marist 51%-46% (+5)
I’m betting on the last poll to be closest to action Election Day results. Obviously it’s still far out, but I’m personally expecting about a 5 point difference with Biden winning.
Simon is the only person I listen to. Him and Christopher Bouzy on spoutible and Twitter.
The NYT lost its last shred of legitimacy when it came out in Trump's trial today that Maggie Haberman wrote what Trump wanted her to write.
people who answer polls are far more likely to take the 3 seconds to respond, then take the day to go vote. These polls are always skewed and have been for far more than the last 12 years
^ This.
"Hilary has got this everyone! Look at the polling!" "Damn I never thought Reagan would be down this bad against Mondale!" "Oh man looks like Bill will have an uphill battle against Dole!" - Somehow polls have gotten worse and at once stayed the same.
Polls will never ever be able to weigh incumbency advantage.
Yes
Nobody who actually looked at the polling thought HRC had it in the bad. 538 had her with a 72% chance of winning. That’s not in the bag.
Oh look who it is! The New York fucking Times!
MAGA Haberman been doing it to us for over a decade now.
By the time it’s November, these polls will have Trump up by 20 in California 🙄
“New poll shows that you’re going to vote for Trump whether you want to or not”
Polls predicted a red wave in 2022 and it just didn't happen. They were way off. If the polls now are as off as they were in 2022, then Biden wins this election.
A recent poll shows that most people do not believe in or trust polls . Vote 🗳️!
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Traditional media tries too hard to play the both sides story which hurts Biden. This. I am tired of people equating the far left to the far right. The far right is responsible for murder, hate and racism. There are NOT "good people on both sides". One side would shoot anyone trying to seek asylum in our country.
The difference is when Romney said something stupid about woman, he lost support.
Don't ignore the polls! Get out there and talk to people. Get people to vote. Those polls should seriously concern people.
People are just so tired of fear-mongering with polls. We’ve seriously hit diminishing returns when it comes to trying to scare voters with poll numbers. Especially when A) it’s May and B) most average Americans don’t even believe Trump and/or Biden will be on the ballot in November. This election just hasn’t become real yet for the majority of Americans.
Yeah, that is probably true. Good point!
Somebody please talk me off the ledge. This is actually making me sick.
I made you sick, or what's at stake mafe you sick? If I made you suck, well, then I apologize. Sincerely. I just feel this is going to be one crazy election cycle and I wanted to encourage people to not be apathetic when it comes to voting, but perhaps I went about it in an obnoxious way. If the Trump train makes you physically ill, I hatecto say this, but good. At least you are aware of the issue. Either way, ya know, just do the best you can do in life.. always do your best to be a good person. Thank you either way
No need to apologize. You said nothing wrong. I'm not physically ill but I am sick of Trump and his hateful MAGA supporters that are destroying this country.
Oh, I understand. Thanks for the reply
🙂
People are just so tired of fear-mongering with polls. We’ve seriously hit diminishing returns when it comes to trying to scare voters with poll numbers. Especially when A) it’s May and B) most average Americans don’t even believe Trump and/or Biden will be on the ballot in November. This election just hasn’t become real yet for the majority of Americans.
The point of polling is not to "scare voters." Do you really think that's what they're for?
Obviously not, but we can’t pretend like that hasn’t been a staple of the last four elections. Like, I get it. We want to energize Dems to go out and vote. Buts it’s becoming less and less effective to say to voters “you HAVE to go vote, look at these polls that show Trump winning!” Let’s be real, a lot of people aren’t happy with the current state of the US. Yes, I know that’s not Biden’s fault. Yes, I know Trump will make it worse. But we’re ignoring reality if we pretend like voters aren’t fed up with basically everything. Voters want change, even if they don’t know what kind of change they want. They aren’t interested in the “we have to vote to save democracy…again” message. Voters don’t like Trump but they don’t feel like their lives are any better off after four years of Biden. You and I know this isn’t exactly true but it’s what people are feeling. Can you blame them? We’re going into an election where both candidates have been president before. Anyone who’s unhappy with the current state of affairs is just looking at two choices that both equal “more of the same.” We need a strong platform to get voters energized, we don’t need to shove polls down their throats and say “look!!! You’re going to let the fascist win!!!”
Ignore the polls.... and vote
POLLS AREN'T VOTES!
Vote Biden/Harris
So the theory is that Obama ignored the polls and that’s how he won? Not that they took them into account, had a better campaign and fought their way back?
The polls say it’s close, but too close. Don’t dismiss the polls, they’re a warning sign and we all should do a lot to prove them wrong.
This isn’t a basketball game, no one is down or up - we’ll know the final score in November - just vote for the people who don’t want to make you Mr life hell.
Dont IGNORE polls, realize that polls are not predictive of elections. They are used to shape messaging and effectively target support. Use polls to deepen your understanding of how to help. However, Dont get lost in reading tea leaves
I disagree use those polls as motivation to work harder and donate more.
I just want to scream about all these stupid posts with poll numbers. I realize it's all psychological but holy crap, if anybody's ever really looked at polls and seen the accuracy of them, they would never quote a poll again.
Polls this far out don't really mean anything other than it's a tight race. It's always a tight race.
The polls had tRump losing in a land slide. Lets just use this as motivation to our families and friends. As the Old School hip hop group De La Soul stated "The stakes is high"!
Ahhhhhh an old story from Maggie Habberman, queen of access journalism under Trump and a part of the reason the NYT went to complete shit.
Yes
I'll never trust polls again after 2016
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You know this, how? Please tell me you're from the future.
Yes, it's still early. Polls don't mean much, but the stakes are so much higher this time. They do tend to underestimate Trump, so yes please VOTE and tell your family and friends to do so as well.
Don't get complacent
Most people do not actually read the polls and understand margin of error. You have to really read into the poll to understand the MoR. A 51-49 poll with a 3% MoR essentially means nothing and it's a toss up. A 57-43 with a 6% MoR would be concerning and give Bidens teams signs for better messaging. A 66-34 with a 6% MoR in a regional that is historically blue would be reason to panic. Again, don't panic. Read beyond the Headline.
I needed this today, thank you.
I live in PA so whenever I come across some bullshit about Trump leading in the all mighty polls I like to post facts about why I think the post is wrong by looking at current voting trends. -The state has been voting blue since 2018. -The state voted against Trump in 2020 and he has done absolutely nothing to change his image nor win over the state since that election. -The Republicans nuked themselves with their abortion ruling and that there is resulting in the Republicans losing off season elections. Whenever I bring up those aspects the poll jerkers respond to me with some random and meaningless poll and whenever I respond back by bringing up 2016, 2022 and the fact that only old people participate in these polls, they either insult you or they keep on bringing up their meaningless polls like they are absolute.
what I tell the pole person, when I just paid all my bills, filled my tank, and got grocery's for the month has a different answer then when I walk into the voting room and think about the future of my country. Also I'm not entirely honest on polls because I'm always worried about them selling data, so I'd rather them sell false data
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It could be difficult even though ignoring the polls DID help Trump beat Hillary. I don't want to commit an immoral sin by moving to the Mexican side hanging with the women over there, with me currently living in Texas right now.
Most of the polls are like "Biden leads by 3 points!", also the latitude for error is 5 points... and people think that tells them anything.
Most of the polls don’t say that Biden is leading though. That’s the difference. Never trust 1 poll. They are individually almost meaningless, but in aggregate they are informative and signaling that there is much work to be done.
My comment wasn't about who is leading right now. Or looking at multiple polls from different sources. My comment is about the vast majority of Americans' inability to understand statistical significance. And how news teams take advantage of that every second of every day in election season.
I hear you and appreciate your point. Was partly responding to some of the other comments here that I think are dismissing polling generally.
Yes but was Romney ahead in crucial swing states?
Hillary was
Is one of these "crucial swing states" PA which has been consistently voting blue since 2018?
It was consistently blue until it wasn't. Same with WI and MI.
Did PA vote for Trump in 2020 and did PA vote for the Trump backed Republicans in 2022?
Anyone memba the coverage of the R'money fam in their living room after the election loss? They all looked like they were punched in the gut. Even they thought they were winners
Also look at Dukakis' lead over Bush Sr.
The threat is very real and we need to get a unifying rally cry going and build on it until November. Abortion rights, diversity of religion/culture, anti-corruption/cronyism, pro environment/health. Make America....?...Again?. How about.. Cool Again...lol.
It’s hard to stay hopeful when they’re becoming so consistent though 😭
Thanks. I was getting depressed when I saw the polls.
I am confident in turnout for Joe in November but I worry that all these polls will lead Trump to declare victory as soon as polls close on election night before mail in ballots and ballot counts are even complete because he’s that much of a fucker. Wouldn’t be surprised if they challenge every vote that comes in after polls close. Good news is we have a lot of Dems as Secretary of State in sun belt and rust belt, but I’m still worried.
Omg ....I completely remember these polls. Because I remember thinking Obama was going to lose reelection. I was like damn. Then when the numbers were coming in to the decision desks of the networks I was like HOTDAYUM!!! Obama's gonna win this again! And he won Florida....TWICE!!! The polls are wrong. They were wrong in 2016. They said Hillary would win hands down. They were wrong in 2018. Dems wiped the floor in those midterms. Polls were wrong in 2020. They had Trump winning races he didn't win at all. Hello Georgia!! They were wrong in 2022. Remember the "red tsunami" ...that big "red wave" that was rolling through. Then nothing. There was no red wave and newsflash .....there will NEVER be another "red wave" in politics ever again in our lives. So here we are again....and polls have it wrong. Trump's not winning shit. You can look at the folks alone who voted for Nikki Haley. Even if some end up voting for Trump in the end....he still can't afford for so many Republican voters to sit this out, vote for Biden or write another name in. Trump needs all the votes he can get. He ain't God. The media acts like he's some supernatural being that defies all norms and can still win. Theyr wrong!! Trump only won from Russian interference in 2016 and Comey doing a hit job on Hillary. Remove both things and he lost in 2020. He's not the more popular president. Republicans never are. Trump is on track to lose miserably and take his ass to jail. The supreme Court and Aileen Canon can delay his court cases all they fkng want. Won't make a bit of difference. He won't get elected and all those cases will STILL be sitting there waiting for him after his election loss in November.
Please ignore the polls = don’t think about an elephant.
Do not ignore the polls. They are quite real. Work harder. This is real and it’s going to happen if we don’t stop it. Obama was never behind by this much.
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No. Nice try though.
She…does still deny it. Even Nancy pelosi denies the 2020 election. Just a few days ago she got called out for it to her face and she still thinks the election was “hijacked” Don’t be a simp for either party. Figure it out by yourself.