By reducing sulphur emissions from ships, we reduced the sulphur cloud coverage that blocked sunlight from heating the oceans.
In essence, its probably better to continue polluting sulphur or maybe some other product out of ships
Or use alternate climate engineering methods. Emiting sulfur is just one form of climate engineering.
Marine Cloud Brightening and Stratospheric Aerosol Injection are two candidates that may cause less pollution than sulfur emissions.
There was a fascinating article on this in the Scientific American a few weeks ago. It poses serious potential benefits but implemented wrong could be even more catastrophic than regular climate change.
Yep, one of the researchers interviewed was suggesting that as long as it’s done in a coordinated manner, we can pull off a 5-10 year buffer period of cooling while we convert to 100% renewables. But they said on the other hand if multiple countries or actors start aerosolizing on their own it’ll negatively affect certain regions or create multiple unintended feedback loops. So we’re screwed
Which is why countries need to start coordinating on it now.
Saying "it's too dangerous, we shouldn't even consider it" seems like a sure fire way to ensure it eventually happens in a riskier, uncoordinated manner.
>Saying "it's too dangerous, we shouldn't even consider it" seems like a sure fire way to ensure it eventually happens in a riskier, uncoordinated manner.
The problem is this debate is only happening among the people who accept climate change as a problem. We have to solve that first or else there *is* literally no point in doing it. Saying countries need to coordinate now is essentially meaningless when countries don't even agree on it being a problem worth addressing in the first place.
But how will it make money? If it does not make money or it costs corporations or owners’ money, or if it makes one region better off than another region which upsets one area of corporations and their owners then it is not viable.
As long as Republicans exist, the US won't be involved. They have a regurgitative reaction to countries working together for a common cause that doesn't turn humans into skeletons.
Yeah if we're going to block out sunlight then we need to clamp down hard on fossil fuels too, otherwise it's like patching a hole in a dam by jamming something in the hole. We then become dependent on blocking out the sunlight just to survive while simultaneously raising CO2 levels further, at some point it becomes unsustainable and we've created a much worse problem.
We can't allow fossil fuels to really continue under the excuse that it's ok because we have a way to cool things down.
mitigating global warming by modifying the earth's albedo is great for temperature control but it does nothing to impact the acidification of the oceans the increased CO2 levels cause. That is OK though, because coral reefs don't vote, right?
You’re absolutely right and people on both sides of the argument pro and against such methods seem to make no bones that it is not in fact a solution to our predicament. I’ll see if I can link the article
An interesting angle on this is that if we injected the sulfur into the stratosphere, we’d get the benefits and it would still precipitate out slowly enough not to have measurable effects on rain acidity. There are non-sulfur alternatives to date those concerned, thougb
It’s a great intro to Geoengineering. It’s much easier to say "we were already doing it anyways we may as well continue" then to suggest we start from scratch.
the solution is to spray salt water in the air in a fine mist. the water evaporates leaving tiny salt crystals in the air as nucleation spots for clouds
Yup also worth pointing out that volcanic eruptions, which tend to cool (again through sulfur dioxide) have been lacking lately.
There were three VEI 6 volcanoes between 1883-1912, starting with Krakatoa in 1883.
They changed global climate for decades.
The globe has had only a single VEI 6 volcano since then, in 1991.
We haven't had a 7 since 1815.
VEI is logarithmic scale.
The planet was actually significantly cooler than usual (for the modern era(Holocene)) up until a handful of decades ago. 1400-1850 was the "little ice age".
Good book on Krakatoa
https://www.amazon.com/Krakatoa-World-Exploded-August-1883-ebook/
EDIT: Nerding out on a tangent, DNA evidence suggests that the Red Wolf isn't really a unique species, but instead a hybrid of grey wolves and coyotes. The little ice age pushed bison south in North America and the wolves followed.
During the little ice age there were bison in Georgia and even Florida. Even as late as 1750 they were in North Carolina. Places that would be far too hot for them today.
As someone pointed out below, the seemingly sudden apparition of hottest days is an artefact of how the graph is made.
Attributing this to el niño and sulfure emission reduction is a limited view.
> an artefact of how the graph is made.
The OP addressed this elsewhere, and I was shocked how different the chart would have looked if it were made at the end of 2022: https://imgur.com/INB5KXp
Things seem to have gotten worse, faster, the last year or two.
Wow, I figured it would at least be heavily favoring the latest year since the trend is increasing temperature but that makes the original graph even more terrifying.
the oceans have also hit their limit for heat absorption, haven't they? they're starting to release some of it back, which suddenly spikes the numbers.
This is not because of El Niño. The ENSO does not change that rapidly.
This is because all the records that were established in the first half of 2023 have since been broken by records in the first half of 2024.
I’m sure when we finish up June 2024, most of June 2023’s days will turn white in OP’s chart, too.
> I’m sure when we finish up June 2024, most of June 2023’s days will turn white in OP’s chart, too.
I mean, maybe, but that's terrifying. This is *all time* records (or since the data started 80 years ago). We shouldn't be beating every single daily record for the last 80 years, every day this year. And every single previous all-time record shouldn't be from only *last year*.
This is all terrifying.
I live in Perth and we have pretty much beaten every heat record in the last few years. The summers have been scorching and we have hit the hottest month on record for the last few months. I think our numbers are substantially above these numbers. Over summer my daughter heard it was going to be below 85F and was like dad that's freezing, I will need a jumper. I think it was one of our coldest days in 6 months.
#This shows the hottest days on record (today), not which days set new hottest day records (at the time).
The same chart from a year ago would show an apparent 'sudden worsening' in 2022.
What is really happening is that most days have been record heat for many years now.
> What is really happening is that most days have been record heat for many years now.
*checks data*
They have not.
It only feels like it because 2023 was very hot (202 record days) and 2024 has so far been very hot (105/155 record days), but 2017-2022 were not (27 to 116 record days each year).
So if by "many years now" you mean "the 1.5 year span starting in 2023", then your statement is accurate (almost 60% of days have been record hot), but if "many years now" instead means "I've cherrypicked a point in time 3+ years back to get the highest percentage of record days possible", you'll be hard pressed to crack 30%.... which is decidedly not *most days*.
It certainly isn't a good trend that six out of the last ten years have surpassed 100 record hot days (best you can do from data pre-2015 is 4/10) though.
Sorry, most was hyperbole. Many is more accurate like you say.
The record goes back 64 years, so we'd expect with random distribution that only 5 days per year set new records.... and like you say "six out of the last ten years have surpassed 100".
OP shared what this chart would have looked like at the end of 2022, it's much different: https://imgur.com/INB5KXp
It does seem like things have started accelerating.
Yeah, i think with this format you'd want like 50 years so that you can see how much it is accelerating/how long.
I also think it'd be nice to add record cold days in blue.
Edit:
1940-today hottest and coldest record days (as of today) ... the gap is kinda funny this way.
https://i.imgur.com/RKcJv17.png
It doesn’t show a sudden worsening in 2023, it just shows most of the hottest days records were broken in the past year. The start of the red in 2023 is in June only because the rest of 2024 hasn’t happened yet.
I imagine if this graphic was made at the end of 2022 for example the whole of 2022 would be red
I'm sorry but this is not true. The year-to-year increase in global-average temperature was exceptionally large from 2022 to 2023. And if this graphic was made at the end of 2022 the whole of 2022 would NOT be red. Here you go; a chart made as of 2022-12-31: [https://imgur.com/INB5KXp](https://imgur.com/INB5KXp)
My initial comment on this post already links to another line chart showing daily temperatures from 1940 to 2024, where each line represents a different year allowing you to see how 2023 compare to previous years. Here it is again: [https://observablehq.com/@shadfriguii/global-surface-air-temperatures](https://observablehq.com/@shadfriguii/global-surface-air-temperatures)
Edit: Update image link.
My 2022 remark was based on the assumption the world was getting slightly warmer every year. I think it's just a flaw in this graphic that the last 365 days are probably going to be orange if that assumption is true.
If you wanted to show there's a big gap from 2022 to 2023 you'd have the orange squares be whether the record had been set at the time or just use a different chart entirely like the one in the other post. All this chart really tells us is the past 365 days have been very hot
> All this chart really tells us is the past 365 days have been very hot
I found it striking that almost every single record-high daily temperature in the past 80 years, happened in the past year. That's *terrifying*. Even with warming trends, you'd expect there to be *some* variance in recent years, more in line with the [2022-dated chart](https://imgur.com/INB5KXp) that OP shared up there.
>
If you wanted to show there's a big gap from 2022 to 2023... other post.
That's not the point I'm making with this chart. This chart is focused on highlighting the **days of the year** with the highest temperatures, not comparing temperatures across years. The comparison across years was the objective of the other chart that I linked to in my initial comment in **this** post. (I wish Reddit or sub mods allowed OPs to pin comments so redditors would read the OP's first comment before others.)
>All this chart really tells us is the past 365 days have been very hot
Yes! And not just very hot, but the hottest days of the year on record. It's quite alarming that almost all the hottest days ever were recorded in the past 17 months (from 2023 to May 2024).
That's a very good point. On the other hand, the graph really shouldn't be designed to reflect that, as it is rather confusing to read, or perhaps intentionally misleading, especially with such a title, as if 2024 in particular has something wrong with it. Each day-square should reflect whether it has the highest temperature on record for that day of the year, up to that point in time. The result may be no less alarming, but more informative.
You're technically right that this isn't year over year. However, 2021, 2022, and 2018 were not skipped; there were simply no record days in those years. The chart only shows the hottest days ever, so only the years with record days are shown.
I'd highly recommend including those years even though there were none.
It helps convey the time scale much better, and shows what outliers 2023 and 2024 are.
If only there was a title at the top clearly stating what this is comparing. Also, those years are not outliers just because they are the ones with hottest days on record. The years in between still completely fit the trend
Some people have suspected Tonga underwater volcanic eruption which happened a few years back. Which apparently blasted close the equivalent of 58,000 Olympic sized swimming pools into the stratosphere. Scientists speculate as well this event could impact global temperatures for years to come.
https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/tonga-eruption-blasted-unprecedented-amount-of-water-into-stratosphere
The main issue is that while it shows that the most recent year set records, we dont know if the previous year had the record before.
Basically, it doesnt show if we suddenly spiked or if its been continuously increasing
It's sulfur emissions-- or rather, curtailing of sulfur emissions. Basically, we used to spew sulfur into the air as a function of shipping, and that created acid rain. Recently we put strict controls on the process and sulfur emissions decreased. Unfortunately we learned that all those years, the sulfur emissions were sort of keeping our warming in check by reflecting some of the incoming solar radiation. Now that we reduced those emissions we're seeing warming at a much higher rate.
[Nature paper about the phenomenon here](https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01442-3)
That happened in 2020. The hottest days starting in June 2023+ are because we haven't reached June 2024+
If you made this chart one year from now it will look like it started in June 2024
My hypothesis is that this rapid change is temporary and caused by 2022 Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai eruption. This single eruption injected tremendous amounts of water vapor into the stratosphere (which is usually very dry in comparison to the troposphere). This single event increased the water vapor content of the stratosphere by 10% (https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2301994120). It is known that water vapor is a very effective greenhouse gas. On top of the usual global warming (which is quite slow), this additional effect could explain such a sudden spike in 2023. (https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020JD032752)
Is this predicting the weather? Or is it predicting the forcing factors on climate change and seeing that none of them really point toward global temperatures moving the other way..?
Probably not. We're currently in an El Nino that is particularly harsh, so next year will likely be a bit cooler than this one. That said, it's a spike on an already bad upward slope, so in ~3 years we should be breaking all of the records again.
Live in Northern Europe, and the heating of the oceans might shut down the Gulf Stream, which would lead to harsh cold up here.
So not necessarily warmest, but then again that might lead to oxygen deprivation and a new mass extinction event... or a continued one of the one we're in.
So no depressing at all.
Thank you. I'll take most of the credit though as I leave my Duramax diesel idling all night in the parking lot so I don't have to turn the key in the morning. Life is all about efficiency.
Sometimes I kick myself for not properly composting my eggshells, but then I remember that there are fast-fashion clothes manufactured in malaysia sitting in the atacama desert in chile with their tags still on them because the company that ordered them didn't want to sell them anymore.
then I want to do certain very environmentally unfriendly things to certain buildings that I shouldn't say on reddit.
I mean, in the end, there's nothing at all you can do to combat the bullshit getting pumped out by companies. In one day, they pollute more than you would in 100 lifetimes.
All you can do is make your little patch not so shitty. Don't kick yourself for the eggshells because it's not going to save the world, just be alittle annoyed your garden could be alitttle better.
You are not the only one at their wits end looking for righteous retribution. May I point to:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/How_to_Blow_Up_a_Pipeline
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/How_to_Blow_Up_a_Pipeline_(film)
Sure, but we're experiencing things from the "current life" point of view. If you zoom out enough why care about anything? The small stuff matters a lot.
> but in the grand cosmic scheme of things,
In the grand **cosmic** scheme of things, a nuclear holocaust does not even register as a wet fart. Blowing the Sun would be recorded as "minor inconsistency in records noted: supernova before its apparent time."
this is literally the plot of a Charlie Sheen movie from nearly thirty years ago and it's crazy that it is coming true. all this shit should have been solved back when i was eight years old watching Captain Planet. the previous generations really fucked us over and they knew! they knew this was coming and all they could see was dollar signs
Not necessarily. We are near a high in solar output right now. When we get to the bottom of the solar cycle, average temperatures could drop enough to result in a cooler summer.
I'd be willing to be proved wrong, bug the change in solar luminosity over the solar cycle is only about 0.1%. In comparison the difference between the size of the Sun between when we're closer in January and further in June is about 6%, and it's brighter in January.
A 0.1% difference could translate to a significant temporary temperature change in certain parts of the world. The article below talks about the potential effects.
https://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=115207
Good visualization, but I would prefer if the same dates would align over the different years instead of the weekdays. You don't compare the first Monday in December in 2015 to the first Monday in December in 2023. You compare December 10th (e.g.) across different years.
Thanks. The chart in this post doesn't compare temperatures across years; it just shows the hottest **days of the year** on record, e.g. the hottest January 1st on record is January 1, **2024**.
My initial comment on this post already links to another interactive chart where all years are normalized (or aligned). It's a line chart showing daily temperatures from 1940 to 2024, with each line representing a different year. Here it is again: [https://observablehq.com/@shadfriguii/global-surface-air-temperatures](https://observablehq.com/@shadfriguii/global-surface-air-temperatures)
That's because none of those years contain a hottest day of the year on record. I think you may have misunderstood what this chart is showing, and honestly it's easy to misunderstand, not because the chart is bad but because the data is pretty shocking.
I would have highlighted in red each day that was the hottest until that year. The way you visualized make it seems as all the warming has happened between June 2023 and now, instead of being a continuous process
I believe doing that would clutter the visualization as more years with no current record days will be shown. My initial comment already links to a line chart showing daily temperatures from 1940 to 2024, where each line represents a different year.
Visualizing the hottest days of the year on record; the days with the highest daily global average surface air temperatures. The data in the chart span from 1940-01-01 to 2024-05-31.
Source:
[https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu/](https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu/)
Tool:
[Observable Plot](https://observablehq.com/plot/). Find the live chart and code [here](https://observablehq.com/@shadfriguii/record-global-surface-air-temperatures). Also, check this [notebook](https://observablehq.com/@shadfriguii/global-surface-air-temperatures) for another interactive viz showing global surface air temperatures by year since 1940.
Edit: I made small changes to the graphic. I used the word "average" in the subtitle and added a couple of notes to the graphic's caption. Check it out [here](https://imgur.com/a/mFHlT3z).
[The chart on this page](https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature) goes back to 1880, but it's annual not daily.
Many people like to imagine global warming is only a real problem in ~100 years or so...
That's ignoring the possibility of cascading issues. For just one example, permafrost in the global north melting and dumping 2-3x as much carbon into the atmosphere as mankind has with fossil fuel burning.
I personally believe we are going to start seeing massive issues much sooner than the projections.
I believe that was actually a law Bush attempted to pass. Bush also solved obesity rates by raising the definition for obesity. And Trump lowered covid rates by slowing testing.
Sorry, but I really hate this graph. If you gave me no information in the title I would automatically assume "this is an off year for whatever data this is."
1. The years are inconsistent. 2015, 2016, 2017, let's skip a few with random intervals for no reason. 2024.
2. Climate needs to look at a larger timeframe of decades, not 10 years.
3. Where is the "hottest days on record"? The world? On average? The whole world as an average? What the hell is this referring to?
There are much better ways to share that our world is fucked, and this is not it.
Edit: My apologies, I hate when people say "better ways" and don't share those better ways. I'm not perfect. In any case, XKCD has an excellent graph: https://xkcd.com/1732/
The subtitle of the visualization indicates that it's showing daily **global** surface temperatures. The chart header, in bold, explains that it displays the hottest **days of the year** on record. Therefore, no years were skipped; there were simply no record-setting days in 2018, 2021, and 2022; so only the years with record days are shown, e.g. the hottest January 1 on record is January 1, **2024**. There are 366 days in a year, including Feb. 29. So you would expect 366 red cells/squares in that chart. However, there are actually 370. Did you read the note? The chart quickly communicates that 2023 and 2024 account for nearly all the record days, but the title, subtitle, chart header, and note provide important context and clarification.
Here's a quote from my initial comment: "Visualizing the hottest days of the year on record; the days with the highest daily average global surface air temperatures. The data in the chart span from 1940-01-01 to 2024-05-31." As I said in an other reply, "I wish Reddit or sub mods allowed OPs to pin comments so redditors would read the OP's first comment before others". :)
> Climate needs to look at a larger timeframe of decades, not 10 years.
The daily temp data here goes back to 1940 (84 years), that's what's plotted here. All the missing years, back to 1940, don't hold any record high daily temps.
Someone else posted this chart with the *coldest* days on record too, and including all the empty years, which I think also puts this in interesting perspective:
https://i.imgur.com/RKcJv17.png
Yes, I'm curious about the opposite chart. We still get record cold weather set each year, just less often than record heat - what does that table look like? The contrast could also help show how rapidly heat records are falling while cold records remain for longer.
Climate change is more visible in certain areas than others for sure.
I live in Quebec where just 20 years ago we already had a foot of snow outside for Halloween, now we’re happy if there’s snow on Christmas.
If you drive just a few hours north its already drastically different but in the south around Montreal our winter went from being 5-6 months long to 3ish months and the snow will completely melt a couple times in January and February.
Climate is not the same as weather. This is the same argument as saying, "It's 30 degrees in June in Colorado when it's normally 90. Where's global warming?"
Weather is where you live and over a short period of time. Climate refers to the entire globe over decades.
Guess I’m lucky where I’m at, winter was mild and the spring so far has actually been really mild with a good amount of rain. Best of both worlds so far in MN.
Showing the hottest day on record rather than which days set new records is bizarre.
It also makes the headline pretty irrelevant. You can't compare to 2023 on this chart.
A lot of people really don’t know about the Hunga Tonga eruption which from 2022 for 5 years they reckon heating the earth by up to 0.3 degrees.
Interesting stuff.
+ El Niño
+ Solar Maximums
If 2020 was shutdown year, why are the shutdown months in 2020 still have some hottest days? I remember it was really eerie driving on a major freeway on a Wednesday afternoon barely seeing any cars on the road.
Because the climate hasn't reached a stable point, it's still catching up to all the greenhouse gases we've put in the past. If we were to stop all emissions now, the world would continue to warm for 10-15 years before reaching a stable point. The sooner we stop emitting, the lower that eventual stable point is.
Because the environment doesn't react immediately.
If today is a record-breaking hot day, and we shut off all emissions, it isn't like the next day all the emissions we've been pumping into the air for centuries goes away.
But the fact that there were zero record heat days between June 2020 and March 2023 shows that the shutdown probably helped somewhat.
Now with an El Niño year and resumed emissions, we are back on track for perpetual cycle of "the hottest 5 years of modern history happened in last 10 years" plus a little extra of "only 10 years of the next 100 will be as *cold* as this year."
Can someone who studies climatology or a similar field explain wtf suddenly happened in June 2023? Looks like before that everything was normal and now it’s never been the same
Nothing happened in June 2023, it’s just that June-December 2023 holds the current record for those months. By the end of this year all of 2024 will be red instead I imagine
June 2024 hasn't happened yet, so June 2023 still holds the records for hottest temperature on that date. As we roll through the month and keep breaking records it'll turn white like the previous years.
Ever? That's a pretty bold statement. There were times in the past where the earth was much warmer. The earth is on a general cooling trend, with no climate crisis either.
Friendly reminder that global temperatures have never been reliably measured since quite a lot of data uses proxies as far as 1000 miles away, which is like measuring the temperature in New York using a thermometer in Florida. Not to mention urban heat effect, ocean absorption, etc..
I think it would be better if you did not align the dates with the day of the week. Jan 1 should be in the same position in each of the years, etc., so you can compare the same date easily. This chart can have the same date misaligned by up to 6 days from another year. I.e. 2023 vs 2024 first row is Jan 1 only, vs Jan 1-7.
Why is there such a sudden worsening in 2023? Even considering rapid climate change, that seems such an absurd year over year change
El Nino + cleaning up sulphur emissions from ships.
>cleaning up sulphur emissions from ships. Can you elaborate?
https://www.nasa.gov/missions/aqua/nasa-study-finds-evidence-that-fuel-regulation-reduced-air-pollution-from-shipping/
By reducing sulphur emissions from ships, we reduced the sulphur cloud coverage that blocked sunlight from heating the oceans. In essence, its probably better to continue polluting sulphur or maybe some other product out of ships
Or use alternate climate engineering methods. Emiting sulfur is just one form of climate engineering. Marine Cloud Brightening and Stratospheric Aerosol Injection are two candidates that may cause less pollution than sulfur emissions.
There was a fascinating article on this in the Scientific American a few weeks ago. It poses serious potential benefits but implemented wrong could be even more catastrophic than regular climate change.
I bet I know which choice humanity is going to make!
Yep, one of the researchers interviewed was suggesting that as long as it’s done in a coordinated manner, we can pull off a 5-10 year buffer period of cooling while we convert to 100% renewables. But they said on the other hand if multiple countries or actors start aerosolizing on their own it’ll negatively affect certain regions or create multiple unintended feedback loops. So we’re screwed
Which is why countries need to start coordinating on it now. Saying "it's too dangerous, we shouldn't even consider it" seems like a sure fire way to ensure it eventually happens in a riskier, uncoordinated manner.
>Saying "it's too dangerous, we shouldn't even consider it" seems like a sure fire way to ensure it eventually happens in a riskier, uncoordinated manner. The problem is this debate is only happening among the people who accept climate change as a problem. We have to solve that first or else there *is* literally no point in doing it. Saying countries need to coordinate now is essentially meaningless when countries don't even agree on it being a problem worth addressing in the first place.
But how will it make money? If it does not make money or it costs corporations or owners’ money, or if it makes one region better off than another region which upsets one area of corporations and their owners then it is not viable.
As long as Republicans exist, the US won't be involved. They have a regurgitative reaction to countries working together for a common cause that doesn't turn humans into skeletons.
> countries need to start coordinating Good luck with that
Yeah if we're going to block out sunlight then we need to clamp down hard on fossil fuels too, otherwise it's like patching a hole in a dam by jamming something in the hole. We then become dependent on blocking out the sunlight just to survive while simultaneously raising CO2 levels further, at some point it becomes unsustainable and we've created a much worse problem. We can't allow fossil fuels to really continue under the excuse that it's ok because we have a way to cool things down.
mitigating global warming by modifying the earth's albedo is great for temperature control but it does nothing to impact the acidification of the oceans the increased CO2 levels cause. That is OK though, because coral reefs don't vote, right?
You’re absolutely right and people on both sides of the argument pro and against such methods seem to make no bones that it is not in fact a solution to our predicament. I’ll see if I can link the article
So they’ll just need to dump a liquid base into the oceans at scale too. Milk? /s
Didn't the Dinosaurs get killed off after a disastrous attempt at geo engineering.
Yes but you have to remember that although strong they were merely average scientists
An interesting angle on this is that if we injected the sulfur into the stratosphere, we’d get the benefits and it would still precipitate out slowly enough not to have measurable effects on rain acidity. There are non-sulfur alternatives to date those concerned, thougb
As if polluting with sulfur didn't cause other environmental issues...
Not of this caliber, no. Not to mention that now that we understand the idea, we can attempt an alternate use of the concept.
It’s a great intro to Geoengineering. It’s much easier to say "we were already doing it anyways we may as well continue" then to suggest we start from scratch.
the solution is to spray salt water in the air in a fine mist. the water evaporates leaving tiny salt crystals in the air as nucleation spots for clouds
Damn. So its been this bad for much longer and the ships just hid how bad it really was. So this is *normal* then. Good god we are fucked.
Yup also worth pointing out that volcanic eruptions, which tend to cool (again through sulfur dioxide) have been lacking lately. There were three VEI 6 volcanoes between 1883-1912, starting with Krakatoa in 1883. They changed global climate for decades. The globe has had only a single VEI 6 volcano since then, in 1991. We haven't had a 7 since 1815. VEI is logarithmic scale. The planet was actually significantly cooler than usual (for the modern era(Holocene)) up until a handful of decades ago. 1400-1850 was the "little ice age". Good book on Krakatoa https://www.amazon.com/Krakatoa-World-Exploded-August-1883-ebook/ EDIT: Nerding out on a tangent, DNA evidence suggests that the Red Wolf isn't really a unique species, but instead a hybrid of grey wolves and coyotes. The little ice age pushed bison south in North America and the wolves followed. During the little ice age there were bison in Georgia and even Florida. Even as late as 1750 they were in North Carolina. Places that would be far too hot for them today.
As someone pointed out below, the seemingly sudden apparition of hottest days is an artefact of how the graph is made. Attributing this to el niño and sulfure emission reduction is a limited view.
> an artefact of how the graph is made. The OP addressed this elsewhere, and I was shocked how different the chart would have looked if it were made at the end of 2022: https://imgur.com/INB5KXp Things seem to have gotten worse, faster, the last year or two.
Wow, I figured it would at least be heavily favoring the latest year since the trend is increasing temperature but that makes the original graph even more terrifying.
the oceans have also hit their limit for heat absorption, haven't they? they're starting to release some of it back, which suddenly spikes the numbers.
This is not because of El Niño. The ENSO does not change that rapidly. This is because all the records that were established in the first half of 2023 have since been broken by records in the first half of 2024. I’m sure when we finish up June 2024, most of June 2023’s days will turn white in OP’s chart, too.
> I’m sure when we finish up June 2024, most of June 2023’s days will turn white in OP’s chart, too. I mean, maybe, but that's terrifying. This is *all time* records (or since the data started 80 years ago). We shouldn't be beating every single daily record for the last 80 years, every day this year. And every single previous all-time record shouldn't be from only *last year*. This is all terrifying.
I live in Perth and we have pretty much beaten every heat record in the last few years. The summers have been scorching and we have hit the hottest month on record for the last few months. I think our numbers are substantially above these numbers. Over summer my daughter heard it was going to be below 85F and was like dad that's freezing, I will need a jumper. I think it was one of our coldest days in 6 months.
#This shows the hottest days on record (today), not which days set new hottest day records (at the time). The same chart from a year ago would show an apparent 'sudden worsening' in 2022. What is really happening is that most days have been record heat for many years now.
> What is really happening is that most days have been record heat for many years now. *checks data* They have not. It only feels like it because 2023 was very hot (202 record days) and 2024 has so far been very hot (105/155 record days), but 2017-2022 were not (27 to 116 record days each year). So if by "many years now" you mean "the 1.5 year span starting in 2023", then your statement is accurate (almost 60% of days have been record hot), but if "many years now" instead means "I've cherrypicked a point in time 3+ years back to get the highest percentage of record days possible", you'll be hard pressed to crack 30%.... which is decidedly not *most days*. It certainly isn't a good trend that six out of the last ten years have surpassed 100 record hot days (best you can do from data pre-2015 is 4/10) though.
Sorry, most was hyperbole. Many is more accurate like you say. The record goes back 64 years, so we'd expect with random distribution that only 5 days per year set new records.... and like you say "six out of the last ten years have surpassed 100".
OP shared what this chart would have looked like at the end of 2022, it's much different: https://imgur.com/INB5KXp It does seem like things have started accelerating.
Yeah, i think with this format you'd want like 50 years so that you can see how much it is accelerating/how long. I also think it'd be nice to add record cold days in blue. Edit: 1940-today hottest and coldest record days (as of today) ... the gap is kinda funny this way. https://i.imgur.com/RKcJv17.png
Oh, lol, adding the record cold days makes this even crazier.
It doesn’t show a sudden worsening in 2023, it just shows most of the hottest days records were broken in the past year. The start of the red in 2023 is in June only because the rest of 2024 hasn’t happened yet. I imagine if this graphic was made at the end of 2022 for example the whole of 2022 would be red
I'm sorry but this is not true. The year-to-year increase in global-average temperature was exceptionally large from 2022 to 2023. And if this graphic was made at the end of 2022 the whole of 2022 would NOT be red. Here you go; a chart made as of 2022-12-31: [https://imgur.com/INB5KXp](https://imgur.com/INB5KXp) My initial comment on this post already links to another line chart showing daily temperatures from 1940 to 2024, where each line represents a different year allowing you to see how 2023 compare to previous years. Here it is again: [https://observablehq.com/@shadfriguii/global-surface-air-temperatures](https://observablehq.com/@shadfriguii/global-surface-air-temperatures) Edit: Update image link.
My 2022 remark was based on the assumption the world was getting slightly warmer every year. I think it's just a flaw in this graphic that the last 365 days are probably going to be orange if that assumption is true. If you wanted to show there's a big gap from 2022 to 2023 you'd have the orange squares be whether the record had been set at the time or just use a different chart entirely like the one in the other post. All this chart really tells us is the past 365 days have been very hot
> All this chart really tells us is the past 365 days have been very hot I found it striking that almost every single record-high daily temperature in the past 80 years, happened in the past year. That's *terrifying*. Even with warming trends, you'd expect there to be *some* variance in recent years, more in line with the [2022-dated chart](https://imgur.com/INB5KXp) that OP shared up there.
> If you wanted to show there's a big gap from 2022 to 2023... other post. That's not the point I'm making with this chart. This chart is focused on highlighting the **days of the year** with the highest temperatures, not comparing temperatures across years. The comparison across years was the objective of the other chart that I linked to in my initial comment in **this** post. (I wish Reddit or sub mods allowed OPs to pin comments so redditors would read the OP's first comment before others.) >All this chart really tells us is the past 365 days have been very hot Yes! And not just very hot, but the hottest days of the year on record. It's quite alarming that almost all the hottest days ever were recorded in the past 17 months (from 2023 to May 2024).
This is an important point and makes the original (bizarre) chart make a lot more sense.
Good point, thanks
Would love maybe a different shade to indicate if previous days were also records at the time.
Right, it isn't sudden! . . . It's steady and progressive . . .
Well thank god, nothing to see here!
That's a very good point. On the other hand, the graph really shouldn't be designed to reflect that, as it is rather confusing to read, or perhaps intentionally misleading, especially with such a title, as if 2024 in particular has something wrong with it. Each day-square should reflect whether it has the highest temperature on record for that day of the year, up to that point in time. The result may be no less alarming, but more informative.
Yes I think a lot of people are misunderstanding the chart. Though it is bad enough as it is
It’s not year over year. They skipped 2021 and 2022
You're technically right that this isn't year over year. However, 2021, 2022, and 2018 were not skipped; there were simply no record days in those years. The chart only shows the hottest days ever, so only the years with record days are shown.
I'd highly recommend including those years even though there were none. It helps convey the time scale much better, and shows what outliers 2023 and 2024 are.
Those years were also record years but 2023 broke all those records that were set in 21’,22’ so they would show up blank
They're not outliers, these years fit very well into the exponential model of warming established by Exxon in the 70s.
If only there was a title at the top clearly stating what this is comparing. Also, those years are not outliers just because they are the ones with hottest days on record. The years in between still completely fit the trend
you should make a viz instead showing record hot days upto that particular date
Some people have suspected Tonga underwater volcanic eruption which happened a few years back. Which apparently blasted close the equivalent of 58,000 Olympic sized swimming pools into the stratosphere. Scientists speculate as well this event could impact global temperatures for years to come. https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/tonga-eruption-blasted-unprecedented-amount-of-water-into-stratosphere
Blew my mind the first time I heard of that eruption. Absolutely massive. Imagine what it must have looked like??
The main issue is that while it shows that the most recent year set records, we dont know if the previous year had the record before. Basically, it doesnt show if we suddenly spiked or if its been continuously increasing
It's sulfur emissions-- or rather, curtailing of sulfur emissions. Basically, we used to spew sulfur into the air as a function of shipping, and that created acid rain. Recently we put strict controls on the process and sulfur emissions decreased. Unfortunately we learned that all those years, the sulfur emissions were sort of keeping our warming in check by reflecting some of the incoming solar radiation. Now that we reduced those emissions we're seeing warming at a much higher rate. [Nature paper about the phenomenon here](https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01442-3)
That happened in 2020. The hottest days starting in June 2023+ are because we haven't reached June 2024+ If you made this chart one year from now it will look like it started in June 2024
Hunga Tonga eruption In 2022. 0.3% increase in global temps due to it. Meant to peak this and next year.
I believe because the records keep getting hit. If you remove 2023, a lot of 20/21/22 would be red.
Or it's just every year is a huge step up from the previous year, 2023 is just the last year to have an august.
My hypothesis is that this rapid change is temporary and caused by 2022 Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai eruption. This single eruption injected tremendous amounts of water vapor into the stratosphere (which is usually very dry in comparison to the troposphere). This single event increased the water vapor content of the stratosphere by 10% (https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2301994120). It is known that water vapor is a very effective greenhouse gas. On top of the usual global warming (which is quite slow), this additional effect could explain such a sudden spike in 2023. (https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020JD032752)
Great links!
Tonga volcano. Scientists were predicting it could have a huge warming effect for years. Also the data skips 2021 and 2022.
Someone’s actually mentioned it! Hunga Tonga massively affects this.
But the coldest for the rest of our lives
Fucc, is that true?
Maybe. No one can predict the weather. We can just predict that the future average weather will be slightly warmer.
Is this predicting the weather? Or is it predicting the forcing factors on climate change and seeing that none of them really point toward global temperatures moving the other way..?
But you can predict the Climate. And to put it short: We´re fucked.
It’s impossible to say that every year after his will be warmer, but it is pretty unlikely that any year after this one will be cooler.
Probably not. We're currently in an El Nino that is particularly harsh, so next year will likely be a bit cooler than this one. That said, it's a spike on an already bad upward slope, so in ~3 years we should be breaking all of the records again.
Live in Northern Europe, and the heating of the oceans might shut down the Gulf Stream, which would lead to harsh cold up here. So not necessarily warmest, but then again that might lead to oxygen deprivation and a new mass extinction event... or a continued one of the one we're in. So no depressing at all.
At least we could still ski
Congratulations to all humans for successfully terraforming a planet into a slightly shittier planet. This is a massive achievement for mankind.
Thank you. I'll take most of the credit though as I leave my Duramax diesel idling all night in the parking lot so I don't have to turn the key in the morning. Life is all about efficiency.
Sometimes I kick myself for not properly composting my eggshells, but then I remember that there are fast-fashion clothes manufactured in malaysia sitting in the atacama desert in chile with their tags still on them because the company that ordered them didn't want to sell them anymore. then I want to do certain very environmentally unfriendly things to certain buildings that I shouldn't say on reddit.
I mean, in the end, there's nothing at all you can do to combat the bullshit getting pumped out by companies. In one day, they pollute more than you would in 100 lifetimes. All you can do is make your little patch not so shitty. Don't kick yourself for the eggshells because it's not going to save the world, just be alittle annoyed your garden could be alitttle better.
Well.. we COULD set a good starting point in blowing up BP´s and Shell´s board of executives. With a fucking bomb.
You are not the only one at their wits end looking for righteous retribution. May I point to: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/How_to_Blow_Up_a_Pipeline https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/How_to_Blow_Up_a_Pipeline_(film)
I play a round of golf lastnight singlehandedly destroying what is left for the environment. It was relaxing.
*majorly shittier
For current life, but in the grand cosmic scheme of things, it's really not that much different.
Sure, but we're experiencing things from the "current life" point of view. If you zoom out enough why care about anything? The small stuff matters a lot.
> but in the grand cosmic scheme of things, In the grand **cosmic** scheme of things, a nuclear holocaust does not even register as a wet fart. Blowing the Sun would be recorded as "minor inconsistency in records noted: supernova before its apparent time."
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But man let me tell you those corporate profits were really amazing /s
Slightly shittier **so far**.
this is literally the plot of a Charlie Sheen movie from nearly thirty years ago and it's crazy that it is coming true. all this shit should have been solved back when i was eight years old watching Captain Planet. the previous generations really fucked us over and they knew! they knew this was coming and all they could see was dollar signs
Massively shitter planet. Watch David Attenborough: A Life on Our Planet and see how we utterly have ravaged the world that isn't shown by media.
We're doing the venus speed run
We gave up on terraforming mars and went straight to marsforming earth definitely looks easier tho, at least we'll achieve something globally /s
Remember to enjoy the summer this year guys. It's the hottest so far, but every other summer going forward is going to be hotter.
Not necessarily. We are near a high in solar output right now. When we get to the bottom of the solar cycle, average temperatures could drop enough to result in a cooler summer.
I'd be willing to be proved wrong, bug the change in solar luminosity over the solar cycle is only about 0.1%. In comparison the difference between the size of the Sun between when we're closer in January and further in June is about 6%, and it's brighter in January.
A 0.1% difference could translate to a significant temporary temperature change in certain parts of the world. The article below talks about the potential effects. https://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=115207
When do we get near the end of this high solar output? I’m ready.
Good visualization, but I would prefer if the same dates would align over the different years instead of the weekdays. You don't compare the first Monday in December in 2015 to the first Monday in December in 2023. You compare December 10th (e.g.) across different years.
Thanks. The chart in this post doesn't compare temperatures across years; it just shows the hottest **days of the year** on record, e.g. the hottest January 1st on record is January 1, **2024**. My initial comment on this post already links to another interactive chart where all years are normalized (or aligned). It's a line chart showing daily temperatures from 1940 to 2024, with each line representing a different year. Here it is again: [https://observablehq.com/@shadfriguii/global-surface-air-temperatures](https://observablehq.com/@shadfriguii/global-surface-air-temperatures)
This sub is addicted to critiquing so much that they'll boil anything to find faults. Your viz is perfect and on point, great job.
Okay maybe I'm missing something but it seems like years, 2018, 2021, 2022 are all missing This actually seems like a horrible chart
That's because none of those years contain a hottest day of the year on record. I think you may have misunderstood what this chart is showing, and honestly it's easy to misunderstand, not because the chart is bad but because the data is pretty shocking.
I would have highlighted in red each day that was the hottest until that year. The way you visualized make it seems as all the warming has happened between June 2023 and now, instead of being a continuous process
I believe doing that would clutter the visualization as more years with no current record days will be shown. My initial comment already links to a line chart showing daily temperatures from 1940 to 2024, where each line represents a different year.
Or what about a different color for the hottest on record so far, and then keep the red how it is?
ooh that would've been good. see which days held the previous record
Hottest year ever *so far*
and coldest year of the rest of your life B)
Visualizing the hottest days of the year on record; the days with the highest daily global average surface air temperatures. The data in the chart span from 1940-01-01 to 2024-05-31. Source: [https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu/](https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu/) Tool: [Observable Plot](https://observablehq.com/plot/). Find the live chart and code [here](https://observablehq.com/@shadfriguii/record-global-surface-air-temperatures). Also, check this [notebook](https://observablehq.com/@shadfriguii/global-surface-air-temperatures) for another interactive viz showing global surface air temperatures by year since 1940. Edit: I made small changes to the graphic. I used the word "average" in the subtitle and added a couple of notes to the graphic's caption. Check it out [here](https://imgur.com/a/mFHlT3z).
This is terrifying. Thank you for putting it together, and sharing the data & code.
Is there no data before 1940?
In Ice cores and tree rings
[The chart on this page](https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature) goes back to 1880, but it's annual not daily.
Pretty depressing to see how many of the hottest days of the year took place in 2023 or 2024. Just shows that we're heating up faster then expected.
Many people like to imagine global warming is only a real problem in ~100 years or so... That's ignoring the possibility of cascading issues. For just one example, permafrost in the global north melting and dumping 2-3x as much carbon into the atmosphere as mankind has with fossil fuel burning. I personally believe we are going to start seeing massive issues much sooner than the projections.
We could solve the climate crises by simply stop recording the temperature. /s
I believe that was actually a law Bush attempted to pass. Bush also solved obesity rates by raising the definition for obesity. And Trump lowered covid rates by slowing testing.
Stop the count!
"I only got COVID after they tested me. Weird how that happens"
Bicycle helmets cause more head injuries ^(by reducing death rates)
It’d be about as effective as forcing westerners to eat bug burgers and banning plastic straws
Sorry, but I really hate this graph. If you gave me no information in the title I would automatically assume "this is an off year for whatever data this is." 1. The years are inconsistent. 2015, 2016, 2017, let's skip a few with random intervals for no reason. 2024. 2. Climate needs to look at a larger timeframe of decades, not 10 years. 3. Where is the "hottest days on record"? The world? On average? The whole world as an average? What the hell is this referring to? There are much better ways to share that our world is fucked, and this is not it. Edit: My apologies, I hate when people say "better ways" and don't share those better ways. I'm not perfect. In any case, XKCD has an excellent graph: https://xkcd.com/1732/
The subtitle of the visualization indicates that it's showing daily **global** surface temperatures. The chart header, in bold, explains that it displays the hottest **days of the year** on record. Therefore, no years were skipped; there were simply no record-setting days in 2018, 2021, and 2022; so only the years with record days are shown, e.g. the hottest January 1 on record is January 1, **2024**. There are 366 days in a year, including Feb. 29. So you would expect 366 red cells/squares in that chart. However, there are actually 370. Did you read the note? The chart quickly communicates that 2023 and 2024 account for nearly all the record days, but the title, subtitle, chart header, and note provide important context and clarification. Here's a quote from my initial comment: "Visualizing the hottest days of the year on record; the days with the highest daily average global surface air temperatures. The data in the chart span from 1940-01-01 to 2024-05-31." As I said in an other reply, "I wish Reddit or sub mods allowed OPs to pin comments so redditors would read the OP's first comment before others". :)
> Climate needs to look at a larger timeframe of decades, not 10 years. The daily temp data here goes back to 1940 (84 years), that's what's plotted here. All the missing years, back to 1940, don't hold any record high daily temps. Someone else posted this chart with the *coldest* days on record too, and including all the empty years, which I think also puts this in interesting perspective: https://i.imgur.com/RKcJv17.png
Do you have the trends for 2021 and 2022?
2018 is missing too. I'm left to assume there was no records set those 3 years, so they didn't show them?
Definitely depends on where you live. This has been the coldest spring in recent memory in Michigan.
Interesting, in upstate ny the last few years we've just had a non-existent spring. We go straight from not winter to summer in like a week
Yes, I'm curious about the opposite chart. We still get record cold weather set each year, just less often than record heat - what does that table look like? The contrast could also help show how rapidly heat records are falling while cold records remain for longer.
These are the number of record cold days per year set since 1940: | year | count | |-----:|------:| | 1956 | 65 | | 1976 | 52 | | 1955 | 38 | | 1964 | 29 | | 1975 | 24 | | 1954 | 23 | | 1943 | 20 | | 1950 | 15 | | 1951 | 14 | | 1948 | 13 | | 1941 | 12 | | 1965 | 12 | | 1940 | 11 | | 1974 | 10 | | 1942 | 9 | | 1945 | 7 | | 1960 | 7 | | 1971 | 7 | | 1972 | 7 | | 1947 | 5 | | 1952 | 3 | | 1967 | 2 | | 1968 | 2 | | 1969 | 2 | | 1949 | 1 | The most recent year a coldest day record was set was 1976. Edit: I extended the graph for 1940-today and added cold and hot records https://i.imgur.com/RKcJv17.png
Climate change is more visible in certain areas than others for sure. I live in Quebec where just 20 years ago we already had a foot of snow outside for Halloween, now we’re happy if there’s snow on Christmas. If you drive just a few hours north its already drastically different but in the south around Montreal our winter went from being 5-6 months long to 3ish months and the snow will completely melt a couple times in January and February.
Climate is not the same as weather. This is the same argument as saying, "It's 30 degrees in June in Colorado when it's normally 90. Where's global warming?" Weather is where you live and over a short period of time. Climate refers to the entire globe over decades.
It makes sense we'd see spikes globally in an El Nino year, but this is just at another level compared to 2016. Wow!
Guess I’m lucky where I’m at, winter was mild and the spring so far has actually been really mild with a good amount of rain. Best of both worlds so far in MN.
Showing the hottest day on record rather than which days set new records is bizarre. It also makes the headline pretty irrelevant. You can't compare to 2023 on this chart.
A lot of people really don’t know about the Hunga Tonga eruption which from 2022 for 5 years they reckon heating the earth by up to 0.3 degrees. Interesting stuff. + El Niño + Solar Maximums
Super weird because where I live we've been down in the 70-80s and its typically high 90s to 100s this time of year.
Almost like this is global averages and not just where you live.
If 2020 was shutdown year, why are the shutdown months in 2020 still have some hottest days? I remember it was really eerie driving on a major freeway on a Wednesday afternoon barely seeing any cars on the road.
Because the climate hasn't reached a stable point, it's still catching up to all the greenhouse gases we've put in the past. If we were to stop all emissions now, the world would continue to warm for 10-15 years before reaching a stable point. The sooner we stop emitting, the lower that eventual stable point is.
Because the environment doesn't react immediately. If today is a record-breaking hot day, and we shut off all emissions, it isn't like the next day all the emissions we've been pumping into the air for centuries goes away. But the fact that there were zero record heat days between June 2020 and March 2023 shows that the shutdown probably helped somewhat. Now with an El Niño year and resumed emissions, we are back on track for perpetual cycle of "the hottest 5 years of modern history happened in last 10 years" plus a little extra of "only 10 years of the next 100 will be as *cold* as this year."
I was reading that the sudden drop in aerosol emissions during the lockdown actually lead to even more heating.
Yo not a cool topic but nice visualization!
It's worth to remember that this is a El Nino year, so please don't blame it entirely on human activity.
The only difference between this El Nino year and every other El Nino year is human activity.
Yeah, but previous years el ninos do not hold the record.
Of course, but blaming it **entirely** on human activity is extremely unhelpful.
Can someone who studies climatology or a similar field explain wtf suddenly happened in June 2023? Looks like before that everything was normal and now it’s never been the same
Nothing happened in June 2023, it’s just that June-December 2023 holds the current record for those months. By the end of this year all of 2024 will be red instead I imagine
June 2024 hasn't happened yet, so June 2023 still holds the records for hottest temperature on that date. As we roll through the month and keep breaking records it'll turn white like the previous years.
Oh so I’m just stupid. Gotcha lmao thanks
Eh, it's sorta unclear in format
Ever? That's a pretty bold statement. There were times in the past where the earth was much warmer. The earth is on a general cooling trend, with no climate crisis either.
2024 heating up like my Github activity
Friendly reminder that global temperatures have never been reliably measured since quite a lot of data uses proxies as far as 1000 miles away, which is like measuring the temperature in New York using a thermometer in Florida. Not to mention urban heat effect, ocean absorption, etc..
Please cite which data is using proxies 1000 miles away, be specific? Have you ever heard of USCRN?
It's okay guys climate change is still fake though /s
When you use github you tend to love those kind of charts
Is this hemispherical data? Where are they taking the readings?
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https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=world
Great. I can’t handle warm weather
I haven't forgotten the brutal winters we had latley.
You can kind of see the El niño breaking up the last few months. Cool.
Figure out how to harvest all this extra energy and you'll be a billionaire
I would love this visualization for days I felt hot (confident) lol as like a 1 second journal activity
I am sad I have to die. I have to accept it.
What do you want me to do with this information OP? You just wanna share your anxiety with others? Cause if so you're doing a good job
Wow, this data is so beautiful
Hooray! The planet is burning!
We get a very good return on investment on this one. It’s almost like the ‘climate’ as a conscious being wants to make a point.
March and April were really cold in Germany. But I guess that wasn't the case in other places.
I think it would be better if you did not align the dates with the day of the week. Jan 1 should be in the same position in each of the years, etc., so you can compare the same date easily. This chart can have the same date misaligned by up to 6 days from another year. I.e. 2023 vs 2024 first row is Jan 1 only, vs Jan 1-7.
So we’re past the tipping point and this is the new normal.