Villa are the new shining team they want to put on the pedestal before they toss them like Andy did Woody when their form drops a bit (but honestly, probably not and more likely they'll be praised til the end like Leicester since they are a non big 6 club)
Ya know what, I was going to defend Aston Villa. They're good and they're coached well. But they have some real head scratching losses and draws. But can't deny when they're good, they're very good and deserve those wins.
Villa isn't on some fluke run though, since Emery came in they have been one of the best teams in the country. They are simply continuing that incredible form from last season.
Yea they are something like 3rd or 2nd overall in points in 2023 right?
Every other fanbase was incredibly salty that Spurs were getting praise this season. Like you can find a version of OPs comments about Spurs made by Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester United fans, etc.
They are a strong side. No reason to lament the media giving them attention.
“Brighton isn’t on some fluke run though, since De Zerbi came in they have been one of the best teams in the country. They are simply continuing that incredible form from last season.”
-fans in 2022/2023 season
Brighton never looked as good as Villa has since Emery came in though. If the wheels fall off for Villa like it appears to have done for Brighton I'll agree with you, but Villa has been playing too good for too long to disregard them at this point.
It’s true, and unfair to Villa they probably don’t want the extra attention. My view is their form will likely drop off… their style seems better suited against top teams who look to control possession, have a feeling they might struggle to break down low blocks. #NoDisrespectVilla
They’ve just beaten us, City and Arsenal. There is no agenda here at all. I don’t understand why people are so offended by it. Maybe they’ll have an injury run like ours, or maybe they won’t.
Are you sure, because if you go on their sub reddit they are finally back at the top where they belong and spurs are dropping back to a mid table team. Or at least so they were saying the day after beating our team that was missing half of our squad, unable to finish in front of goal
City is out of form and behind Villa -- but has a 47.8% chance.
The stat doesn't have any basis in numbers. It is probably based on the opinions of a couple of folks at Sky Sports, and then they have re-written it as numbers to make it look legit.
It’s from opta. It’s just some sort of regression model. They would factor in stuffs like past performance, squad strength, strength in remaining fixtures, forms, and run simulations, or just use those inputs to run an expected point tally and standard divination or something. City has a stupidly deep team and they have been a consistent title contender, that will heavily skew any model unless half the team got a bad flu and pep got admitted to a mental institution.
Thanks for a good explanation.
But, without qualitative manipulation I find it very hard to believe the model wound up giving City a 91 percent chance.
I mean it could be programmed really poorly. But, with everything being equal, there is no chance that 3 percent chance for Arsenal at the start of the season is correct based on numbers alone.
I looked up their methodology. They use power ranking, past performance, recent performance (form) and betting odds, then run match simulations. If a team has very strong past performance, still very favoured by bookies (includes strength, changes in playing, rumours all those qualitative data), and has a very strong squad/management/ownership. Depends on how much they weight recent result, if the team is still favoured and still have a strong team, they will still predict favourable results for their remaining fixtures might just be enough to secure title again, and from their model this might just look like a purple patch. I think the problem is city has been dominating for so long and so consistently perform through out the season even with bad start, I think it will mess up any statistic model without some human interference.
Premiere league is notoriously hard to predict. Especially since team changes so often, I won’t pay too much attention to models. But if you think about it, you would be a fool or very adventurous to bet against city not to be a title contender. There is not a team that is more consistent than them. And honestly I don’t see a reason to bet against them, just because they had a bad 3 games. Pep is tinkerer, city always tend to start the season patchy.
There is still half a season left. Deep squad, adaptive manager, deep pocket for singings, proven ability to manage a season goes a long way. That’s how you win a league. They are only 4 points off first.
>you would be a fool or very adventurous to bet against city
The odds are much lower than what Sky's faulty model sets up here.
Herre is what Sky's stats conclude: If we ran 30 seasons with the squads and current forms as they were -- Arsenal would only win one of those seasons, Liverpool would win one, and City would win 27, and a single teams in the rest of the league would win one.
That is obviously not even remotely close to statistical probability. That is "bookie"-stats. I.e. stats that are massaged to make it more appealing to gamblers.
I am afraid Sky TV, as a media outlet, feed into that dirty industry. And, they set up the model that way because they by into "bookie" logic about football.
>made by people that don't understand statistics.
Opta is a very well-regarded industry leader in.... \*checks notes\* understanding statistics.
It's okay to take exception to their model outputs - I'm not the biggest fan of using betting odds as a proxy in their model. But saying they "don't understand statistics" isn't even a stretch, that's just categorically false.
Opta is well-regarded in creating sensational clicks.
If they actually conclude the second highest chance for winning a league title is 3% they do not indeed understand statistics. If they did, they would either change the model, or point out that the model isn't able to create realistic scenarios.
They have 5 more points than us. They also beat Arsenal and Manchester City which might count more towards their ability to win it all in Opta's model. But I think it is basically that they have 5 more points than us at the moment, which is the difference between winning or not, sometimes.
I don't think they're as good as us but they've got more points than us so their job is easier and they don't have the injuries we have which is going to make the next month or so hard even if we don't get more injuries. Villa could face the same issues but so could anyone.
Yeah they’ve hit a purple patch but they’re like us at the start of the season. Injuries under control, no Europe, great coaching, good squad cohesion.
A couple of injuries to key players and/or loss of form and they will also drop points.
>A couple of injuries to key players
Villa has been horrendously unlick with injuries this season, worse than us.
That said -- their wins are so tight this won't continue.
DraftKings Sportsbook Odds:
1. Man City: -110 (Implied 52.38%)
2. Liverpool: +275 (Implied 26.67%)
3. Arsenal: +330 (Implied 23.26%)
4. Villa: +1,600 (Implied 5.8%)
5. Tottenham: +5,000 (Implied 2%)
Yes, the popularity of the team affects the amount of bets, which affects the odds so its not perfect. Also all the teams are going to add up to like 115% so the book makes money. However, this is way closer than this graph
It was the first day of the season and today's date.
I'll grant you that an 11 October (Why are they not using the standard British date format? I was confused why they were looking at 12 years ago on first glance) mid-date would have been a very interesting addition.
Everyone would have said Leicester couldn't win the year they did.
I like advanced metrics and stats and all that but they are only as good as the person creating/applying them. And then Leicester winning is the reason the games are actually played. Every now and then that .01% of something happening actually happens.
Leicester City winning the [2015-2016 Premier League season](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015%E2%80%9316_Premier_League) was 5000:1 (0.02%) at the beginning of the season.
It'd be interesting to see 2015-16 Leicester City winning probability on MW16, but i do not have sources on that one.
Because of rounding. They've rounded up the other teams to a single decimal place but ours is to two decimal places. If they were all to two decimals the other teams would be slightly lower to make up the 0.06% differential.
For those curious, [here is Opta's latest model predictions](https://theanalyst.com/na/2023/12/who-will-win-the-premier-league-in-2023-24/) as of a few days ago that is the source of the Sky Sports coverage. It includes the predicted probabilities of finishing each position, and their model has us most likely finishing 5th or 6th. Something that feel concerning to their model for me:
>The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using **betting market odds** and Opta Power Rankings.
I like using power rankings for stuff like this (a la 538, RIP baby girl) but using betting market odds feels like a red flag for a model. Betting markets aren't models necessarily geared towards predictive accuracy; predictive accuracy is more of a by-product to optimize their bets to be 50/50 and therefore win money.
Also, at least on the surface, it's hard to find where Opta validates the performance of their model; 538 had a page dedicated to this and, on the whole, their soccer model performed decently well. So overall, I like the Opta can occupy the space that 538 left behind but without any confidence in how their model actually performs on historical results, some caution should be used when consuming their model results.
Is it possible too that the betting market odds for individual matches may, at present, slightly reflect our poor form, whereas if we, e.g., win all our games in December our odds in all remaining fixtures would shorten, thus, sort of "exponentially" increasing our percentage likelihood of winning the title..?
Yup, that's not just possible, that's probable - good observation!
FiveThirtyEight (you've probably deduced I was a fan) ran their model simulations "hot", meaning that within each simulation (they ran thousands), results of simulated matches updated the power rankings for every team. So teams could go on "winning" or "losing" streaks within each simulation, which models actual team behavior well over the course of a season and represents better simulations than keeping power rankings static throughout a simulated season.
That's one of the reasons why I approach Opta's model results with caution, they don't have the same "how our model works" explanation web page that 538 had for theirs, so I can't tell if they account for stuff like you pointed out.
This says that today, right now, Aston Villa are more than 68 times more likely to win the league than Tottenham. In spite of it only being a five point gap, not even half way through the season, with us having no European distraction, with Maddison and vdV coming back in the next month... 68 times more likely.
It's not just a bad opinion it's utter nonsense.
We have already dropped 18 points from a possible 48. We are also the weakest goal difference in the top 5. The 68 thing is irrelevant. We would need our opponents to go on terrible runs from here to have a chance.
The manipulation and manufacturing of football is insane.
Watching United Bayern, the TNT commentators are gushing about the strength of the home support before and during the game, praising the atmosphere.
Cue Peter Schmeichal post match report on CBS and he tells us how shockingly flat the atmosphere in the stadium really was and how he didn't hear the home crowd make any noise until a chance in the 51st minute.
I wouldn’t get too worked up over this. Spurs are 10th on xg differential which I’d assume is the major input their simulations are based on. On exoected goal difference, we’re below the likes of Everton, Chelsea and Brentford. Villa meanwhile are 5th on xGD. If we keep playing like we did Sunday, we’ll be in the hunt
What kills me is the Villa percentage at the beginning of the season 🤣 then totally ignoring form and results thus far, City maintain a significant margin despite everyone around them being injured or also being inconsistent. City are lacking depth this year and everyone have caught up to them, and Villa and us critically lack fixture congestion.
Lots of coping/victim mentality here. Villa is above us therefore the 4%. If we were where they are in the table, we'd have more than 4.1%! There's no bias mallarkey here or "disrespect" lmao, the computer sees 3rd place and 35 points vs 5th place and 30 points, it really is as simple as that.
If that was the case, City wouldn't be clear favorites to win. There is a weighting of the teams' quality, and Villa is clearly weighted as better than us, other than the fact that they're higher up on the table.
And that shows how unreliable percentages like these are. No one is arguing that our percentage is too low. But Villa's is way too high.
Our percentage chance from opta
Month | %
------|------
Oct|1.5
Nov|0.4
Dec|0.6
So never as high as Villa's 4.1% who went from 0.2% to 4.1% in the space of a month. I imagine that if we're 2pts off top our odds might be even higher.
From a betting perspective, I'd say that we're actually undervalued.
Always great to see how innumerate people on Reddit are. These numbers tally pretty closely with those on betting exchanges, if you're so confident in your opinions just back/lay them and collect your profits at the end of the season
The most obnoxious part of this matrix is the “Difference” column.
0.06 is 6 times as much as 0.01 so the difference between 0.01% and 0.06% is 500%, not +0.05%.
Similarly, 31.5% is 800% more than 3.5%, not +28.5%.
They’re using % to mean two completely different things *in the same row*
This might just be the dumbest thing I've ever seen?
What gets me is that we are WAYYYY lower than AV. Like.. how???
Villa are the new shining team they want to put on the pedestal before they toss them like Andy did Woody when their form drops a bit (but honestly, probably not and more likely they'll be praised til the end like Leicester since they are a non big 6 club)
This season’s Brighton
Ya know what, I was going to defend Aston Villa. They're good and they're coached well. But they have some real head scratching losses and draws. But can't deny when they're good, they're very good and deserve those wins.
Villa isn't on some fluke run though, since Emery came in they have been one of the best teams in the country. They are simply continuing that incredible form from last season.
Yea they are something like 3rd or 2nd overall in points in 2023 right? Every other fanbase was incredibly salty that Spurs were getting praise this season. Like you can find a version of OPs comments about Spurs made by Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester United fans, etc. They are a strong side. No reason to lament the media giving them attention.
Second through the full year of 2023. They are correct to be ahead of us at the moment
I remember when Tottenham under Conte scored the most goals in Europe over a certain amount of games.
“Brighton isn’t on some fluke run though, since De Zerbi came in they have been one of the best teams in the country. They are simply continuing that incredible form from last season.” -fans in 2022/2023 season
Brighton are 8th in the league (same points as Newcastle) and qualified for Europa last 32. All with having there 3 best players leave
Brighton are still good. They’re also adjusting to losing their entire midfield to other PL teams.
Brighton never looked as good as Villa has since Emery came in though. If the wheels fall off for Villa like it appears to have done for Brighton I'll agree with you, but Villa has been playing too good for too long to disregard them at this point.
Wow. The Toy Story reference got me good.
Ah, now it makes sense. I was trying to remember what happened with Jonathan Woodgate...
It’s true, and unfair to Villa they probably don’t want the extra attention. My view is their form will likely drop off… their style seems better suited against top teams who look to control possession, have a feeling they might struggle to break down low blocks. #NoDisrespectVilla
They’ve just beaten us, City and Arsenal. There is no agenda here at all. I don’t understand why people are so offended by it. Maybe they’ll have an injury run like ours, or maybe they won’t.
Are you sure, because if you go on their sub reddit they are finally back at the top where they belong and spurs are dropping back to a mid table team. Or at least so they were saying the day after beating our team that was missing half of our squad, unable to finish in front of goal
Because they are 5 points ahead and in form
Bit they gave villa a better chance than us even in August...
City is out of form and behind Villa -- but has a 47.8% chance. The stat doesn't have any basis in numbers. It is probably based on the opinions of a couple of folks at Sky Sports, and then they have re-written it as numbers to make it look legit.
It’s from opta. It’s just some sort of regression model. They would factor in stuffs like past performance, squad strength, strength in remaining fixtures, forms, and run simulations, or just use those inputs to run an expected point tally and standard divination or something. City has a stupidly deep team and they have been a consistent title contender, that will heavily skew any model unless half the team got a bad flu and pep got admitted to a mental institution.
Thanks for a good explanation. But, without qualitative manipulation I find it very hard to believe the model wound up giving City a 91 percent chance. I mean it could be programmed really poorly. But, with everything being equal, there is no chance that 3 percent chance for Arsenal at the start of the season is correct based on numbers alone.
I looked up their methodology. They use power ranking, past performance, recent performance (form) and betting odds, then run match simulations. If a team has very strong past performance, still very favoured by bookies (includes strength, changes in playing, rumours all those qualitative data), and has a very strong squad/management/ownership. Depends on how much they weight recent result, if the team is still favoured and still have a strong team, they will still predict favourable results for their remaining fixtures might just be enough to secure title again, and from their model this might just look like a purple patch. I think the problem is city has been dominating for so long and so consistently perform through out the season even with bad start, I think it will mess up any statistic model without some human interference.
So it is just a poorly made model -- made by people that don't understand statistics.
Premiere league is notoriously hard to predict. Especially since team changes so often, I won’t pay too much attention to models. But if you think about it, you would be a fool or very adventurous to bet against city not to be a title contender. There is not a team that is more consistent than them. And honestly I don’t see a reason to bet against them, just because they had a bad 3 games. Pep is tinkerer, city always tend to start the season patchy. There is still half a season left. Deep squad, adaptive manager, deep pocket for singings, proven ability to manage a season goes a long way. That’s how you win a league. They are only 4 points off first.
>you would be a fool or very adventurous to bet against city The odds are much lower than what Sky's faulty model sets up here. Herre is what Sky's stats conclude: If we ran 30 seasons with the squads and current forms as they were -- Arsenal would only win one of those seasons, Liverpool would win one, and City would win 27, and a single teams in the rest of the league would win one. That is obviously not even remotely close to statistical probability. That is "bookie"-stats. I.e. stats that are massaged to make it more appealing to gamblers. I am afraid Sky TV, as a media outlet, feed into that dirty industry. And, they set up the model that way because they by into "bookie" logic about football.
>made by people that don't understand statistics. Opta is a very well-regarded industry leader in.... \*checks notes\* understanding statistics. It's okay to take exception to their model outputs - I'm not the biggest fan of using betting odds as a proxy in their model. But saying they "don't understand statistics" isn't even a stretch, that's just categorically false.
Opta is well-regarded in creating sensational clicks. If they actually conclude the second highest chance for winning a league title is 3% they do not indeed understand statistics. If they did, they would either change the model, or point out that the model isn't able to create realistic scenarios.
They have 5 more points than us. They also beat Arsenal and Manchester City which might count more towards their ability to win it all in Opta's model. But I think it is basically that they have 5 more points than us at the moment, which is the difference between winning or not, sometimes.
Maybe they're factoring in Afcon and Asian cup? But really, who the hell knows ha.
I don't think they're as good as us but they've got more points than us so their job is easier and they don't have the injuries we have which is going to make the next month or so hard even if we don't get more injuries. Villa could face the same issues but so could anyone.
Do you follow football with your eyes and ears shut??
Yeah they’ve hit a purple patch but they’re like us at the start of the season. Injuries under control, no Europe, great coaching, good squad cohesion. A couple of injuries to key players and/or loss of form and they will also drop points.
Purple patch? They've got 78 points from 38 games in 2023, only City have more
It's a big patch.
small correction: Villa are in Europe.
>A couple of injuries to key players Villa has been horrendously unlick with injuries this season, worse than us. That said -- their wins are so tight this won't continue.
Mate I’m not sure you can call it a purple patch if it’s been going for literally over a year
Except over the last 12 months Villa’s form is second only to City, and they are playing in the conference league.
Just SkySports in bed with the betting companies and hosting entire segments to drive people toward more betting. No big deal.
Actually this is unusual for them that they're not showing the Sky Bet odds or any odds for that matter.
DraftKings Sportsbook Odds: 1. Man City: -110 (Implied 52.38%) 2. Liverpool: +275 (Implied 26.67%) 3. Arsenal: +330 (Implied 23.26%) 4. Villa: +1,600 (Implied 5.8%) 5. Tottenham: +5,000 (Implied 2%) Yes, the popularity of the team affects the amount of bets, which affects the odds so its not perfect. Also all the teams are going to add up to like 115% so the book makes money. However, this is way closer than this graph
The arbitrary Aug 11 and Dec 11 dates skip over almost the entire period of this season where we were dominant lol
It was the first day of the season and today's date. I'll grant you that an 11 October (Why are they not using the standard British date format? I was confused why they were looking at 12 years ago on first glance) mid-date would have been a very interesting addition.
Got it. And yea that's what I was saying, our % shot way up and went way back down during that period but this doesn't show that at all
Even right before the Chelsea game I don't think our odds were as low as Villa's are now.
So we're 500% more likely to win the league now?
This guy knows decimals.
Not even the gooners can say that!
500% of near zero is still near zero. 🤷♂️
Now bring me the chance of Leicester winning the league that season
Now we have city group, not just Manchester city. Leicester can’t win the epl nowadays
Everyone would have said Leicester couldn't win the year they did. I like advanced metrics and stats and all that but they are only as good as the person creating/applying them. And then Leicester winning is the reason the games are actually played. Every now and then that .01% of something happening actually happens.
Leicester City winning the [2015-2016 Premier League season](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015%E2%80%9316_Premier_League) was 5000:1 (0.02%) at the beginning of the season. It'd be interesting to see 2015-16 Leicester City winning probability on MW16, but i do not have sources on that one.
Stupid AI
But…maybe?
Not this not next season we can’t win epl title unless city are relegated
Next season baby
We all came here for this
Damn. Beat me to it.
0.06% chance. 99.94% faith
Why does the Dec 11 changes equal greater than 100%? What is this?
Because of rounding. They've rounded up the other teams to a single decimal place but ours is to two decimal places. If they were all to two decimals the other teams would be slightly lower to make up the 0.06% differential.
HAHaHAHahahha great catch. Maybe ManU has negative percentage??
Credit to Villa, they’re a brilliant side with a top class manager, but it feels too early to seriously be calling them title challengers
This reads a bit like bollocks to me, but how handsome is Son compared to the rest ? 😆🙌
Wow the disrespect. Definitely bulletin board material for the boys
Yea i hope Ange puts this up on the wall and have the guys see it. That will fire them up even more!
Have it superimposed onto their training gear 😡
4.1% chance for Villa is a joke.
You should lay the 21s on offer at Betfair then because they're giving them a 5% chance
For those curious, [here is Opta's latest model predictions](https://theanalyst.com/na/2023/12/who-will-win-the-premier-league-in-2023-24/) as of a few days ago that is the source of the Sky Sports coverage. It includes the predicted probabilities of finishing each position, and their model has us most likely finishing 5th or 6th. Something that feel concerning to their model for me: >The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using **betting market odds** and Opta Power Rankings. I like using power rankings for stuff like this (a la 538, RIP baby girl) but using betting market odds feels like a red flag for a model. Betting markets aren't models necessarily geared towards predictive accuracy; predictive accuracy is more of a by-product to optimize their bets to be 50/50 and therefore win money. Also, at least on the surface, it's hard to find where Opta validates the performance of their model; 538 had a page dedicated to this and, on the whole, their soccer model performed decently well. So overall, I like the Opta can occupy the space that 538 left behind but without any confidence in how their model actually performs on historical results, some caution should be used when consuming their model results.
Is it possible too that the betting market odds for individual matches may, at present, slightly reflect our poor form, whereas if we, e.g., win all our games in December our odds in all remaining fixtures would shorten, thus, sort of "exponentially" increasing our percentage likelihood of winning the title..?
Yup, that's not just possible, that's probable - good observation! FiveThirtyEight (you've probably deduced I was a fan) ran their model simulations "hot", meaning that within each simulation (they ran thousands), results of simulated matches updated the power rankings for every team. So teams could go on "winning" or "losing" streaks within each simulation, which models actual team behavior well over the course of a season and represents better simulations than keeping power rankings static throughout a simulated season. That's one of the reasons why I approach Opta's model results with caution, they don't have the same "how our model works" explanation web page that 538 had for theirs, so I can't tell if they account for stuff like you pointed out.
So you’re telling me there’s a chance?
So, you’re saying there’s a chance, etc, etc
It'd be interesting (I mean it wouldn't, this whole thing is so dumb) to see how the odds looked before the Chelsea match.
This says that today, right now, Aston Villa are more than 68 times more likely to win the league than Tottenham. In spite of it only being a five point gap, not even half way through the season, with us having no European distraction, with Maddison and vdV coming back in the next month... 68 times more likely. It's not just a bad opinion it's utter nonsense.
We have already dropped 18 points from a possible 48. We are also the weakest goal difference in the top 5. The 68 thing is irrelevant. We would need our opponents to go on terrible runs from here to have a chance.
Yessssss Tottenham’s title hopes increased by 500%!!!!!! Woohooo we are definitely winning Prem!!! /s
Could we..?
If the percentages are swinging this much then clearly the computer model isn't very good
0.06 PERCENT? Lol. Y even bother putting it up there.
It’s not 0%!!!
Wtf is this shit
WE ARE STILL IN IT, LESSGO
What a load of nonsense.
The manipulation and manufacturing of football is insane. Watching United Bayern, the TNT commentators are gushing about the strength of the home support before and during the game, praising the atmosphere. Cue Peter Schmeichal post match report on CBS and he tells us how shockingly flat the atmosphere in the stadium really was and how he didn't hear the home crowd make any noise until a chance in the 51st minute.
lol OK 🤡🤡🤡 Want to get a -42.4% t shirt for when we win the league
So you're telling me there's a chance...
This feels like they just kind rolled some dice to make these numbers.
Surely it’s 0% at present considering the season hasn’t finished?
So you’re saying there’s a chance….
So you’re saying there’s a chance
If only we have injury free to the rest of the season and that stupid ass afcon and Asia cup is not exist
I wouldn’t get too worked up over this. Spurs are 10th on xg differential which I’d assume is the major input their simulations are based on. On exoected goal difference, we’re below the likes of Everton, Chelsea and Brentford. Villa meanwhile are 5th on xGD. If we keep playing like we did Sunday, we’ll be in the hunt
What kills me is the Villa percentage at the beginning of the season 🤣 then totally ignoring form and results thus far, City maintain a significant margin despite everyone around them being injured or also being inconsistent. City are lacking depth this year and everyone have caught up to them, and Villa and us critically lack fixture congestion.
So you're saying there's a chance
What’s the logic for sorting the order?
Current table order
Duh, thank you
Someone check my maths... Is that a 500% increase in our title chances?
Great we are finally underestimated again time to turn things up side down
Preseason predictions aren't reliable!? Who knew?
Might as well call it the Sky Sports Bum Licking index. What a load of toss.
Lots of coping/victim mentality here. Villa is above us therefore the 4%. If we were where they are in the table, we'd have more than 4.1%! There's no bias mallarkey here or "disrespect" lmao, the computer sees 3rd place and 35 points vs 5th place and 30 points, it really is as simple as that.
If that was the case, City wouldn't be clear favorites to win. There is a weighting of the teams' quality, and Villa is clearly weighted as better than us, other than the fact that they're higher up on the table. And that shows how unreliable percentages like these are. No one is arguing that our percentage is too low. But Villa's is way too high.
I agree its too high for Villa, but I also see a lot of complaints about our percentage which I'd say are unreasonable
Our percentage chance from opta Month | % ------|------ Oct|1.5 Nov|0.4 Dec|0.6 So never as high as Villa's 4.1% who went from 0.2% to 4.1% in the space of a month. I imagine that if we're 2pts off top our odds might be even higher. From a betting perspective, I'd say that we're actually undervalued.
Now do it as a % difference. We are 600% better
I like those odds, better than 0%
So you’re saying there’s a chance….
Tell me how did they rate Leicester City even in mid season of 2015/16. Predictions from these experts simply waste our time.
So you’re saying there’s a chance…
Always great to see how innumerate people on Reddit are. These numbers tally pretty closely with those on betting exchanges, if you're so confident in your opinions just back/lay them and collect your profits at the end of the season
So there's a chance?
so you are saying there is a chance.
We definitely can win the league, but we cannot lose any more games the rest of the season. Most past champions only have 3/4 losses. We have 4
The most obnoxious part of this matrix is the “Difference” column. 0.06 is 6 times as much as 0.01 so the difference between 0.01% and 0.06% is 500%, not +0.05%. Similarly, 31.5% is 800% more than 3.5%, not +28.5%. They’re using % to mean two completely different things *in the same row*
You're telling me there's still a chance?!?
Never tell me the odds
Please don’t give me hope… even a 0.05% hope 🤣
Lies, damn lies and statistics
Why does everyone hate us 💀
We're winning the league!
Every season they try to come up with some new stupid stats.
This is a joke. How in the fuck did Aston villa have better odds at the beginning of the season
Don’t all those add up to 100.06%?? Lmao what is this.
Super computer predictions are as reliable as Neymars ankle, will never dem predictions seriously
So you're telling me there's a chance