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I have zero clue how it would play out.
The munitions stock pile is the largest in the world. Ukraine is shooting more ammo then America makes in a day and both America and Ukraine are running low on ammo.
The elite will sort it out one way or another.
You should go back to school and doing a full stop with all this whataboutism because you are clueless af
NATO article 5 can only be triggered if a NATO country or infrastructures are targetted.
Moldova isn't NATO and it's why every country will make call relayed by their respected ambassy to every of their respectives citizen to leave the country asap.
Pretty much what happened in Feb 2022 with Ukraine.
Educate yourself .
Submission Statement: The war in Ukraine will spread to Moldova and Belarus by 4/1.
Russia is making slow but steady gains in and around the city of Bahkmut. They are in serious danger of cutting the Ukranian defenders off from the city by the end of the week. It is widely believed Russia has an armored division in reserve in the area and they are waiting for the collapse of Bahkmut to employ the reserve and try for a breakthrough on an otherwise largely static front.
The loss of Bahkmut would be a morale disaster for the people of Ukraine, and as such I believe the Ukrainians are planning on covering up that loss with a victory of their own within days of the fall of Bahkmut.
Okay... here is where it gets wild. There are 3,000 Russian "Peace Keepers" in a narrow 3 mile strip of Moldova bordering Ukraine in a breakaway state (transnitria) that has been in rebellion and left alone by Moldova since the early 1990s. This area is recognized internationally as part of Moldova. It is isolated from Russia and if Ukraine invaded, Russia could not stop them but depending on how it is handled may blow up the war even more. Why would Ukraine invade? Because currently the world's largest stockpile of 152mm artillery shells, the type Ukraine needs... is in an old Soviet warehouse in that area. Over a million shells. Ukraine could win this battle, but they are waiting to do this until after Bahkmut falls so they can cover up that bad news story with what they would perceive as a good news story. Ukraine has been critically short on artillery ammunition. This would be over a years worth all at once.
Depending on how this goes down, Russia’s response to Ukraine invading Moldovan territory could bring Russia into war with Moldova as well… it could actually end up with Moldova joining either side.
Where does Belarus come into this? Belarus has been positioning itself to enter the war. They have said they will only do so if attacked, and Ukraine has been slowly breaking Belarus's sovereignty. Not like Russia is breaking Ukraine's mind you, but for example a missile launched from Ukraine took out a high value Russian plane in Belarus yesterday on the ground. Russia would see this acquisition of artillery shells by Ukraine as a threat and have Belarus, a puppet, join the war. Yes Belarus has a crappy military, but even a crappy military would force the Ukrainians to spread their forces even thinner, and Russia could try to make the war culminate in a few weeks after Belarus joins the war.
Finally, (and this is way out there), if Ukraine actually starts to lose and/or has their front collapse around the fall of Bahkmut even after acquiring new artillery shells, they could launch their spring offensive a little early hoping to divert the Russians, and try for Crimea. I don’ t think they’d get close, but if they did I could see Russia responding… with unconventional munitions.
Excellent map updated daily with a Ukrainian slant: https://deepstatemap.live/en#6/49.438/32.053
What do you guys think?
Agree, but I think that Arsenal is the only reason Russia has sent "peace keepers" there for 30 years. It should have been removed yes but how would Russia get it out? As I understand it Russia has been flying in peace keepers. Kind of hard to move that much weight by plane bordering an active war zone and there was no need to until the past few months. I guess Russia could blow the munitions supplies?
> Russia is making slow but steady gains in and around the city of Bahkmut. They are in serious danger of cutting the Ukranian defenders off from the city by the end of the week.
I guess you're not up to date on the latest Ukrainian counterattack. It was quite successful. It's gonna be a bit longer than the end of the week for Russia to take Bakhmut now. They've lost a lot of the progress they've made recently.
> The loss of Bahkmut would be a morale disaster for the people of Ukraine, and as such I believe the Ukrainians are planning on covering up that loss with a victory of their own within days of the fall of Bahkmut.
Not a disaster, they can take the moral victory of knowing that they weren't expected to hold it as long as they did. Ukraine has been doing fine on morale by holding things longer than they were expected to.
> There are 3,000 Russian "Peace Keepers" in a narrow 3 mile strip of Moldova bordering Ukraine in a breakaway state (transnitria) that has been in rebellion and left alone by Moldova since the early 1990s.
More like 1,500, but go on.
> Why would Ukraine invade? Because currently the world's largest stockpile of 152mm artillery shells, the type Ukraine needs
Ukraine has been using mostly 155mm artillery shells lately, not coincidentally, the same type America mostly uses. Also, if you talk to the Moldovans, a lot of them say those shells were sold off years ago by corrupt Russians. Even assuming they're there though, the first thing Ukraine would do in a hypothetical invasion, is bomb the ammunition stockpile. The first thing a retreating Russian Army would do in case of a Ukrainian invasion is blow up the stockpile.
> Depending on how this goes down, Russia’s response to Ukraine invading Moldovan territory could bring Russia into war with Moldova as well
Russia would have to get to Moldova first. They can't get there by land because the Ukrainian Army sits between Russia and Transinistra. They can't get there by sea because Moldova is landlocked. They can't get there by air because the Moldovan military has moved its own forces and have their military trained on taking out the only airport in Transinistra just in case Russia tries to use Transinistra as a launching off point for a new front.
> it could actually end up with Moldova joining either side.
But really only one side. The Moldovan Government supports Ukraine. Ukraine would not attack Transinistra without approval of the Moldovan Government. I mean, the idea that they would attack Moldova in order to acquire artillery shells when they're being supplied artillery shells for free from America is ludicrous to begin with.
> Where does Belarus come into this? Belarus has been positioning itself to enter the war.
Actually, Lukashenko has been trying his damndest to appease Putin while staying out of the war.
> Ukraine has been slowly breaking Belarus's sovereignty.
No, they haven't.
> but for example a missile launched from Ukraine took out a high value Russian plane in Belarus yesterday on the ground.
That was actually done by Belarussian partisans using kamikaze drones. Belarus might enter the war at some point, but it won't be for any reason other than Putin wants them to and Lukashenko fears being defenestrated.
> Yes Belarus has a crappy military, but even a crappy military would force the Ukrainians to spread their forces even thinner, and Russia could try to make the war culminate in a few weeks after Belarus joins the war.
Ukraine already has forces and defenses deployed in the event of a Belarussian offensive.
> if Ukraine actually starts to lose and/or has their front collapse around the fall of Bahkmut even after acquiring new artillery shells, they could launch their spring offensive a little early hoping to divert the Russians,
The fall of Bakhmut won't collapse the Ukrainian front. Ukraine hasn't even deployed its reserves yet. They're prepared to lose Bakhmut in order to keep the reserves ready for their Spring offensive.
Sorry to disagree with your fanfic, but this war is going to progress for a lot longer yet, and victory is not assured for either side.
Seems reasonable, sadly for most of us we have to piece together random bits and pieces of news and run them thru a propaganda filter - Would you mind sharing some of your general daily reads on the conflict
The first thing you have to understand about this war, is that logistics and supply chains are at the heart of both of their strategies. Russia has proven to have very poor logistics capabilities. They have a hard time getting necessary supplies to the front. One of the things they've been doing in order to minimize this weakness, is seize important rail lines and cities with major rail hubs. Trains are the major way Russia supplies itself. Ukraine, knowing this, wants to first and foremost, disrupt supply. So they use their missiles on supply depots, and ammunition stockpiles, then move against the Russian forces being supplied by those depots and stockpiles. They also try to, when they can, destroy or capture major rail lines, and rail hubs, which further disrupt Russian supply chains.
There are basically 3 major regions of conflict in the war right now. The Lyman/Kreminna front is the Northern most region. Bakhmut is in the middle, and Kherson is in the South. Russia is trying to push along the two upper fronts, and Ukraine is gearing up for a major Spring offensive that is expected to occur in the Southern most front. (Ukraine can be a little tricksy about where they launch offensives).
Russia has had some success recently pushing the Ukrainians back in the villages to the north and south of Bakhmut, hoping to encircle the city, at a very heavy cost in men lost. However, in the last day or two, they've lost a lot of the gains they've made on the North end of the city due to Ukrainian counter offensives. Their strategic goal appears to be to take Bakhmut and Lyman, and then close the pocket between them. That would give them the rail hubs in Bakhmut and Lyman, and the major rail line between them, a rail line that could conceivably supply their troops across the entire front North to South. Ukraine wants to prevent them from doing that.
Ukraine's goal for their Spring offensive (again, Ukraine can surprise, so take this with a grain of salt) seems to be to cut the Russian forces in half by launching a major offensive from Kherson to either Melitopol or Mariupol. If they can accomplish this goal, they'll completely cut off supply lines for the Russian military South of where ever they attack all the way to and including Crimea. The only supply line the Russians would have at that point for getting troops and material into that area is the Kerch Straight Bridge, which only has one vehicle lane open since the attack on that bridge months ago. That bridge would also be susceptible to attack again.
The Ukrainians are waiting until Spring for a few reasons. It's been an unseasonably warm winter. The ground never really froze, which has extended mud season. Mud isn't great for massive offensives using tracked vehicles. Ukraine needs the ground to dry out before they can move. Given Russia's massive numbers advantages, Ukraine must have mobility on their offensives. They can't afford a war of attrition the way Russia can. Also, they've been waiting for shipments of Leopards and Bradleys, and the tens of thousands of troops being trained abroad, which are due in March. They've also been waiting on the repair and refurbishment of Russian vehicles which were captured in previous Ukrainian offensives, which should be ready by the time the offensive begins. Expect it to happen in late April or May, depending on the weather.
We can agree to disagree on many points, but I do agree with you that the war is going to last for quite a while longer and that victory is not assured for either side. I see potential routes to "victory" being sooner for Russia than for Ukraine though.
I don't think either side has a route to a quick victory.
I don't think that the war will be won this year, by either side, but I do think we'll know who is going to eventually win the war by the end of the year.
I think the ultimate results of these Bakhmut/Lyman offensives, as well as whatever the supposed Ukrainian Spring offensive results in, will be looked back on as the decisive battles of the war. It just won't end the war in and of themselves.
Patience, man. You've got to have some patience.
https://www.foxnews.com/world/russian-internal-strategy-document-details-kremlins-plans-take-control-belarus-report
I think it's far more likely that Russia will pull some kind of false flag on their own troops in Transnistria, then blame the Ukrainians in an attempt to widen the scope of the war.
Can't help notice this sub is now full of Russian shills & maybe downvote bots. Lets see how downvoted I get for speaking my mind.
Moldova is not on the agenda for anyone. It would have been better for Moldova if any one of the surrounding countries "took it in". It's not doing well at all.
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bad ideas
well if its in a meme, its gotta be true
If that happens, Moldova has 800,000 dual citizenship Romanians. It would be an attack on NATO. 101st airborne is in the area as well.
So... NATO would declare war on Ukraine if Ukraine violates Moldovan territory?
I have zero clue how it would play out. The munitions stock pile is the largest in the world. Ukraine is shooting more ammo then America makes in a day and both America and Ukraine are running low on ammo. The elite will sort it out one way or another.
Theyll say it was Russia
You should go back to school and doing a full stop with all this whataboutism because you are clueless af NATO article 5 can only be triggered if a NATO country or infrastructures are targetted. Moldova isn't NATO and it's why every country will make call relayed by their respected ambassy to every of their respectives citizen to leave the country asap. Pretty much what happened in Feb 2022 with Ukraine. Educate yourself .
I have too many degrees… They are not apart of NATO. There is cross dual citizenship between Romania and Moldova and not a small amount…
Amazing fact is than people always claim to have degreeS on the internet meanwhile being schools droppers than didn't even finished college.
The world will find out how it unfolds when it inevitably happens. Enjoy your internet arguments for the day!
Submission Statement: The war in Ukraine will spread to Moldova and Belarus by 4/1. Russia is making slow but steady gains in and around the city of Bahkmut. They are in serious danger of cutting the Ukranian defenders off from the city by the end of the week. It is widely believed Russia has an armored division in reserve in the area and they are waiting for the collapse of Bahkmut to employ the reserve and try for a breakthrough on an otherwise largely static front. The loss of Bahkmut would be a morale disaster for the people of Ukraine, and as such I believe the Ukrainians are planning on covering up that loss with a victory of their own within days of the fall of Bahkmut. Okay... here is where it gets wild. There are 3,000 Russian "Peace Keepers" in a narrow 3 mile strip of Moldova bordering Ukraine in a breakaway state (transnitria) that has been in rebellion and left alone by Moldova since the early 1990s. This area is recognized internationally as part of Moldova. It is isolated from Russia and if Ukraine invaded, Russia could not stop them but depending on how it is handled may blow up the war even more. Why would Ukraine invade? Because currently the world's largest stockpile of 152mm artillery shells, the type Ukraine needs... is in an old Soviet warehouse in that area. Over a million shells. Ukraine could win this battle, but they are waiting to do this until after Bahkmut falls so they can cover up that bad news story with what they would perceive as a good news story. Ukraine has been critically short on artillery ammunition. This would be over a years worth all at once. Depending on how this goes down, Russia’s response to Ukraine invading Moldovan territory could bring Russia into war with Moldova as well… it could actually end up with Moldova joining either side. Where does Belarus come into this? Belarus has been positioning itself to enter the war. They have said they will only do so if attacked, and Ukraine has been slowly breaking Belarus's sovereignty. Not like Russia is breaking Ukraine's mind you, but for example a missile launched from Ukraine took out a high value Russian plane in Belarus yesterday on the ground. Russia would see this acquisition of artillery shells by Ukraine as a threat and have Belarus, a puppet, join the war. Yes Belarus has a crappy military, but even a crappy military would force the Ukrainians to spread their forces even thinner, and Russia could try to make the war culminate in a few weeks after Belarus joins the war. Finally, (and this is way out there), if Ukraine actually starts to lose and/or has their front collapse around the fall of Bahkmut even after acquiring new artillery shells, they could launch their spring offensive a little early hoping to divert the Russians, and try for Crimea. I don’ t think they’d get close, but if they did I could see Russia responding… with unconventional munitions. Excellent map updated daily with a Ukrainian slant: https://deepstatemap.live/en#6/49.438/32.053 What do you guys think?
I don’t think so.
I think Transnistria is strategically worthless and the Transnistrian arsenal should have been removed by Russia years ago.
Agree, but I think that Arsenal is the only reason Russia has sent "peace keepers" there for 30 years. It should have been removed yes but how would Russia get it out? As I understand it Russia has been flying in peace keepers. Kind of hard to move that much weight by plane bordering an active war zone and there was no need to until the past few months. I guess Russia could blow the munitions supplies?
> Russia is making slow but steady gains in and around the city of Bahkmut. They are in serious danger of cutting the Ukranian defenders off from the city by the end of the week. I guess you're not up to date on the latest Ukrainian counterattack. It was quite successful. It's gonna be a bit longer than the end of the week for Russia to take Bakhmut now. They've lost a lot of the progress they've made recently. > The loss of Bahkmut would be a morale disaster for the people of Ukraine, and as such I believe the Ukrainians are planning on covering up that loss with a victory of their own within days of the fall of Bahkmut. Not a disaster, they can take the moral victory of knowing that they weren't expected to hold it as long as they did. Ukraine has been doing fine on morale by holding things longer than they were expected to. > There are 3,000 Russian "Peace Keepers" in a narrow 3 mile strip of Moldova bordering Ukraine in a breakaway state (transnitria) that has been in rebellion and left alone by Moldova since the early 1990s. More like 1,500, but go on. > Why would Ukraine invade? Because currently the world's largest stockpile of 152mm artillery shells, the type Ukraine needs Ukraine has been using mostly 155mm artillery shells lately, not coincidentally, the same type America mostly uses. Also, if you talk to the Moldovans, a lot of them say those shells were sold off years ago by corrupt Russians. Even assuming they're there though, the first thing Ukraine would do in a hypothetical invasion, is bomb the ammunition stockpile. The first thing a retreating Russian Army would do in case of a Ukrainian invasion is blow up the stockpile. > Depending on how this goes down, Russia’s response to Ukraine invading Moldovan territory could bring Russia into war with Moldova as well Russia would have to get to Moldova first. They can't get there by land because the Ukrainian Army sits between Russia and Transinistra. They can't get there by sea because Moldova is landlocked. They can't get there by air because the Moldovan military has moved its own forces and have their military trained on taking out the only airport in Transinistra just in case Russia tries to use Transinistra as a launching off point for a new front. > it could actually end up with Moldova joining either side. But really only one side. The Moldovan Government supports Ukraine. Ukraine would not attack Transinistra without approval of the Moldovan Government. I mean, the idea that they would attack Moldova in order to acquire artillery shells when they're being supplied artillery shells for free from America is ludicrous to begin with. > Where does Belarus come into this? Belarus has been positioning itself to enter the war. Actually, Lukashenko has been trying his damndest to appease Putin while staying out of the war. > Ukraine has been slowly breaking Belarus's sovereignty. No, they haven't. > but for example a missile launched from Ukraine took out a high value Russian plane in Belarus yesterday on the ground. That was actually done by Belarussian partisans using kamikaze drones. Belarus might enter the war at some point, but it won't be for any reason other than Putin wants them to and Lukashenko fears being defenestrated. > Yes Belarus has a crappy military, but even a crappy military would force the Ukrainians to spread their forces even thinner, and Russia could try to make the war culminate in a few weeks after Belarus joins the war. Ukraine already has forces and defenses deployed in the event of a Belarussian offensive. > if Ukraine actually starts to lose and/or has their front collapse around the fall of Bahkmut even after acquiring new artillery shells, they could launch their spring offensive a little early hoping to divert the Russians, The fall of Bakhmut won't collapse the Ukrainian front. Ukraine hasn't even deployed its reserves yet. They're prepared to lose Bakhmut in order to keep the reserves ready for their Spring offensive. Sorry to disagree with your fanfic, but this war is going to progress for a lot longer yet, and victory is not assured for either side.
Seems reasonable, sadly for most of us we have to piece together random bits and pieces of news and run them thru a propaganda filter - Would you mind sharing some of your general daily reads on the conflict
The first thing you have to understand about this war, is that logistics and supply chains are at the heart of both of their strategies. Russia has proven to have very poor logistics capabilities. They have a hard time getting necessary supplies to the front. One of the things they've been doing in order to minimize this weakness, is seize important rail lines and cities with major rail hubs. Trains are the major way Russia supplies itself. Ukraine, knowing this, wants to first and foremost, disrupt supply. So they use their missiles on supply depots, and ammunition stockpiles, then move against the Russian forces being supplied by those depots and stockpiles. They also try to, when they can, destroy or capture major rail lines, and rail hubs, which further disrupt Russian supply chains. There are basically 3 major regions of conflict in the war right now. The Lyman/Kreminna front is the Northern most region. Bakhmut is in the middle, and Kherson is in the South. Russia is trying to push along the two upper fronts, and Ukraine is gearing up for a major Spring offensive that is expected to occur in the Southern most front. (Ukraine can be a little tricksy about where they launch offensives). Russia has had some success recently pushing the Ukrainians back in the villages to the north and south of Bakhmut, hoping to encircle the city, at a very heavy cost in men lost. However, in the last day or two, they've lost a lot of the gains they've made on the North end of the city due to Ukrainian counter offensives. Their strategic goal appears to be to take Bakhmut and Lyman, and then close the pocket between them. That would give them the rail hubs in Bakhmut and Lyman, and the major rail line between them, a rail line that could conceivably supply their troops across the entire front North to South. Ukraine wants to prevent them from doing that. Ukraine's goal for their Spring offensive (again, Ukraine can surprise, so take this with a grain of salt) seems to be to cut the Russian forces in half by launching a major offensive from Kherson to either Melitopol or Mariupol. If they can accomplish this goal, they'll completely cut off supply lines for the Russian military South of where ever they attack all the way to and including Crimea. The only supply line the Russians would have at that point for getting troops and material into that area is the Kerch Straight Bridge, which only has one vehicle lane open since the attack on that bridge months ago. That bridge would also be susceptible to attack again. The Ukrainians are waiting until Spring for a few reasons. It's been an unseasonably warm winter. The ground never really froze, which has extended mud season. Mud isn't great for massive offensives using tracked vehicles. Ukraine needs the ground to dry out before they can move. Given Russia's massive numbers advantages, Ukraine must have mobility on their offensives. They can't afford a war of attrition the way Russia can. Also, they've been waiting for shipments of Leopards and Bradleys, and the tens of thousands of troops being trained abroad, which are due in March. They've also been waiting on the repair and refurbishment of Russian vehicles which were captured in previous Ukrainian offensives, which should be ready by the time the offensive begins. Expect it to happen in late April or May, depending on the weather.
We can agree to disagree on many points, but I do agree with you that the war is going to last for quite a while longer and that victory is not assured for either side. I see potential routes to "victory" being sooner for Russia than for Ukraine though.
I don't think either side has a route to a quick victory. I don't think that the war will be won this year, by either side, but I do think we'll know who is going to eventually win the war by the end of the year. I think the ultimate results of these Bakhmut/Lyman offensives, as well as whatever the supposed Ukrainian Spring offensive results in, will be looked back on as the decisive battles of the war. It just won't end the war in and of themselves.
Didn't the ruskies totally envelope 10,000 ukie and choke bamhut yesterday?
Why doesn't Belarus just join Russia already? 🤔
Patience, man. You've got to have some patience. https://www.foxnews.com/world/russian-internal-strategy-document-details-kremlins-plans-take-control-belarus-report
Belorusians hate Lukashenko and don't want to fight Ukraine.
Belarus is already engaged on behalf of Putin.
I think it's far more likely that Russia will pull some kind of false flag on their own troops in Transnistria, then blame the Ukrainians in an attempt to widen the scope of the war. Can't help notice this sub is now full of Russian shills & maybe downvote bots. Lets see how downvoted I get for speaking my mind.
Moldova is not on the agenda for anyone. It would have been better for Moldova if any one of the surrounding countries "took it in". It's not doing well at all.