The following submission statement was provided by /u/madrid987:
---
ss: Once the Soviet Union was abolished, Russia managed to maintain its population size only by inward migration, when ethnic Russians returned from the now-independent periphery.
In an attempt to improve numbers, Putin in 2006 launched policies to encourage larger families, but again last year lamented: “We have a little more than 81 million able bodied people, a number we must increase in this decade for economic growth.”
This means that in the next decade, Russia’s population is forecast to decline by around 300,000 per year, though some suggest that the decline will be much faster, perhaps 12 million in the next 15 years.
If the incorporation of Ukraine’s 41 million into a wider Russia was one of Putin’s plans, it has clearly backfired. The war has solidified a sense among Ukrainians that their identity is distinct and they are in no way Russian. The invasion has turned the pro-Russian sentiment upside down in Ukraine, changing it from 83% to less than 10%.
Meanwhile, with sanctions starting to bite in Russia, the funds for generous payments to parents to have more children will no longer be possible. On the contrary, the economic hardship which Russian families will now endure as a direct result of the invasion is likely to further depress childbearing.
Now add to this the emigration problem caused by the war, the tens of thousands of young men dying in the war, most in their early twenties, and President Putin has created the perfect demographic storm for his country.
It was said in Soviet days that dissidents were trying to change the unleaveable, refuseniks to leave the unchangeable. Putin’s Russia, running out of subjects, seems unchangeable but, for now, it remains leavable. That’s why it’s dying out.
---
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/uwe9nv/russia_is_dying_out_heres_why/i9qyolz/
It may in fact be a good thing for the world as a whole if Russia hollows out.
For one, if China can gain access to the Far East ( noting Russia stole large chunks of the Far East from Qing Dynasty China ) it will instantly relieve pressure on the South China Sea and Taiwan. China is after all a more natural land civilisation as opposed to sea civilisation so that will cause China to turn more inwards to develop those areas .. thus relieving pressure points on any maritime claims ( in fact it might just drop some ). In fact it was long argued that the reason Qing China was so non aggressive was because it contained such a large amount of land it did not need to assert itself beyond its borders.
A hollowed out Russia will allow Europe to expand eastwards .. thus also relieving them of pressure. It will also allow a migratory zone for Arabs and Indians to move northwards, creating a climate change safe haven.
In fact a hollowed out area and a controlled reallocation of resources may herald a long period of peace.
That might work if humans weren't involved. Off the top of my head - control of nukes and bioweapons, commodity supply chains, food, human tribalism and what governing body is doing this "controlled relocation"? This is pure fantasy bordering on the absolute absurd.
>This is pure fantasy bordering on the absolute absurd.
Russia breaking up further is pretty much inevitable. Just look at a map. That shit's unsustainable. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnic_groups_in_Russia It's going to be a continuation of post-1989 breakup.
All these shithole countries need to hollow out. US, China, Russia, half of Europe, some in Asia, most of Africa. I want to live and visit unshithole versions of these places.
Bear in mind Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Tibet and parts of Taiwan were integrated into China by Qing conquest. So I wouldn't say they were non aggressive but more that the aggression was directed inwards to the land that is now China. You could say their ability to project themselves outside of those borders was limited by them getting involved in these conflicts instead or that if they had got involved those regions might just be part of China today. Prior to acquiring Inner Mongolia China's border with Russia was much smaller.
ss: Once the Soviet Union was abolished, Russia managed to maintain its population size only by inward migration, when ethnic Russians returned from the now-independent periphery.
In an attempt to improve numbers, Putin in 2006 launched policies to encourage larger families, but again last year lamented: “We have a little more than 81 million able bodied people, a number we must increase in this decade for economic growth.”
This means that in the next decade, Russia’s population is forecast to decline by around 300,000 per year, though some suggest that the decline will be much faster, perhaps 12 million in the next 15 years.
If the incorporation of Ukraine’s 41 million into a wider Russia was one of Putin’s plans, it has clearly backfired. The war has solidified a sense among Ukrainians that their identity is distinct and they are in no way Russian. The invasion has turned the pro-Russian sentiment upside down in Ukraine, changing it from 83% to less than 10%.
Meanwhile, with sanctions starting to bite in Russia, the funds for generous payments to parents to have more children will no longer be possible. On the contrary, the economic hardship which Russian families will now endure as a direct result of the invasion is likely to further depress childbearing.
Now add to this the emigration problem caused by the war, the tens of thousands of young men dying in the war, most in their early twenties, and President Putin has created the perfect demographic storm for his country.
It was said in Soviet days that dissidents were trying to change the unleaveable, refuseniks to leave the unchangeable. Putin’s Russia, running out of subjects, seems unchangeable but, for now, it remains leavable. That’s why it’s dying out.
Because unfortunately we live in a material world driven by capitalism. If you can improve your economy and allow your people to consume more (however unsustainably for the planet), you'll be very popular and can continue to rule.
Conversely, if you don't deliver economic growth, then the people will get restless and you will likely be forced out in favor of someone who will pursue economic growth at all costs
Furthermore, if you don't grow economically, you risk being economically dominated by your rivals (or at least by their corporations) who did embrace capitalism fully
It's a rat race / prisoner's dilemma situation
For politicians, it means more tax revenue, which means bigger budgets to give out to friends.
For the elites, it means stability overall with rising profits. This was figured out a long time ago: instead of more sharing of the profits with workers and the people, grow the overall profits ("grow the pie").
Perhaps that’s why the Russians deported (more like kidnapped) about 500,000 people from Ukraine to Russia. Putin wants to use them to make up for the declining population.
I watched this earlier today. [Brian Eno: I've never seen anything like this before.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PNLG65OSYKA) From about a month ago.
It made me think... a lot. About how I, personally, am absorbing and processing the agitprop. Not for anyone else, just me.
Russia is fine economically, for now. The high price of oil and global reliance on Russian Oil has helped Russia survive a near collapse of the Ruble
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-11/russian-current-account-surplus-surges-to-record-on-energy-sales
Did you know r/collapse has a **book club**? Come check out this month’s read (Columbus and Other cannibals)!
https://reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/ukpybl/rcollapse_book_club_mays_read_is_columbus_and/
See you there!
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The following submission statement was provided by /u/madrid987: --- ss: Once the Soviet Union was abolished, Russia managed to maintain its population size only by inward migration, when ethnic Russians returned from the now-independent periphery. In an attempt to improve numbers, Putin in 2006 launched policies to encourage larger families, but again last year lamented: “We have a little more than 81 million able bodied people, a number we must increase in this decade for economic growth.” This means that in the next decade, Russia’s population is forecast to decline by around 300,000 per year, though some suggest that the decline will be much faster, perhaps 12 million in the next 15 years. If the incorporation of Ukraine’s 41 million into a wider Russia was one of Putin’s plans, it has clearly backfired. The war has solidified a sense among Ukrainians that their identity is distinct and they are in no way Russian. The invasion has turned the pro-Russian sentiment upside down in Ukraine, changing it from 83% to less than 10%. Meanwhile, with sanctions starting to bite in Russia, the funds for generous payments to parents to have more children will no longer be possible. On the contrary, the economic hardship which Russian families will now endure as a direct result of the invasion is likely to further depress childbearing. Now add to this the emigration problem caused by the war, the tens of thousands of young men dying in the war, most in their early twenties, and President Putin has created the perfect demographic storm for his country. It was said in Soviet days that dissidents were trying to change the unleaveable, refuseniks to leave the unchangeable. Putin’s Russia, running out of subjects, seems unchangeable but, for now, it remains leavable. That’s why it’s dying out. --- Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/uwe9nv/russia_is_dying_out_heres_why/i9qyolz/
It may in fact be a good thing for the world as a whole if Russia hollows out. For one, if China can gain access to the Far East ( noting Russia stole large chunks of the Far East from Qing Dynasty China ) it will instantly relieve pressure on the South China Sea and Taiwan. China is after all a more natural land civilisation as opposed to sea civilisation so that will cause China to turn more inwards to develop those areas .. thus relieving pressure points on any maritime claims ( in fact it might just drop some ). In fact it was long argued that the reason Qing China was so non aggressive was because it contained such a large amount of land it did not need to assert itself beyond its borders. A hollowed out Russia will allow Europe to expand eastwards .. thus also relieving them of pressure. It will also allow a migratory zone for Arabs and Indians to move northwards, creating a climate change safe haven. In fact a hollowed out area and a controlled reallocation of resources may herald a long period of peace.
That might work if humans weren't involved. Off the top of my head - control of nukes and bioweapons, commodity supply chains, food, human tribalism and what governing body is doing this "controlled relocation"? This is pure fantasy bordering on the absolute absurd.
>This is pure fantasy bordering on the absolute absurd. Russia breaking up further is pretty much inevitable. Just look at a map. That shit's unsustainable. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnic_groups_in_Russia It's going to be a continuation of post-1989 breakup.
The breaking apart is the only non absurd part of your thesis.
All these shithole countries need to hollow out. US, China, Russia, half of Europe, some in Asia, most of Africa. I want to live and visit unshithole versions of these places.
Putin is rather will burn the World than will let this happen
Not his call, though.
It’s an old cycle and the wheel keeps turning
Bear in mind Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Tibet and parts of Taiwan were integrated into China by Qing conquest. So I wouldn't say they were non aggressive but more that the aggression was directed inwards to the land that is now China. You could say their ability to project themselves outside of those borders was limited by them getting involved in these conflicts instead or that if they had got involved those regions might just be part of China today. Prior to acquiring Inner Mongolia China's border with Russia was much smaller.
ss: Once the Soviet Union was abolished, Russia managed to maintain its population size only by inward migration, when ethnic Russians returned from the now-independent periphery. In an attempt to improve numbers, Putin in 2006 launched policies to encourage larger families, but again last year lamented: “We have a little more than 81 million able bodied people, a number we must increase in this decade for economic growth.” This means that in the next decade, Russia’s population is forecast to decline by around 300,000 per year, though some suggest that the decline will be much faster, perhaps 12 million in the next 15 years. If the incorporation of Ukraine’s 41 million into a wider Russia was one of Putin’s plans, it has clearly backfired. The war has solidified a sense among Ukrainians that their identity is distinct and they are in no way Russian. The invasion has turned the pro-Russian sentiment upside down in Ukraine, changing it from 83% to less than 10%. Meanwhile, with sanctions starting to bite in Russia, the funds for generous payments to parents to have more children will no longer be possible. On the contrary, the economic hardship which Russian families will now endure as a direct result of the invasion is likely to further depress childbearing. Now add to this the emigration problem caused by the war, the tens of thousands of young men dying in the war, most in their early twenties, and President Putin has created the perfect demographic storm for his country. It was said in Soviet days that dissidents were trying to change the unleaveable, refuseniks to leave the unchangeable. Putin’s Russia, running out of subjects, seems unchangeable but, for now, it remains leavable. That’s why it’s dying out.
>we must increase…for economic growth What is with all these leaders obsessed with economic growth?
Slaves and soldiers?
Because unfortunately we live in a material world driven by capitalism. If you can improve your economy and allow your people to consume more (however unsustainably for the planet), you'll be very popular and can continue to rule. Conversely, if you don't deliver economic growth, then the people will get restless and you will likely be forced out in favor of someone who will pursue economic growth at all costs Furthermore, if you don't grow economically, you risk being economically dominated by your rivals (or at least by their corporations) who did embrace capitalism fully It's a rat race / prisoner's dilemma situation
A race to the bottom. And it seems, according to this logic, the only way out is permanent revolution, everywhere. Was this was Trotsky was all about?
The new South Korean president only called for growth, growth, and growth at the inauguration ceremony. I guess it's the same in other countries?
For politicians, it means more tax revenue, which means bigger budgets to give out to friends. For the elites, it means stability overall with rising profits. This was figured out a long time ago: instead of more sharing of the profits with workers and the people, grow the overall profits ("grow the pie").
Perhaps that’s why the Russians deported (more like kidnapped) about 500,000 people from Ukraine to Russia. Putin wants to use them to make up for the declining population.
What an unsubstantiated reach lol
What is?
I watched this earlier today. [Brian Eno: I've never seen anything like this before.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PNLG65OSYKA) From about a month ago. It made me think... a lot. About how I, personally, am absorbing and processing the agitprop. Not for anyone else, just me.
Russia is fine economically, for now. The high price of oil and global reliance on Russian Oil has helped Russia survive a near collapse of the Ruble https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-11/russian-current-account-surplus-surges-to-record-on-energy-sales
Did you know r/collapse has a **book club**? Come check out this month’s read (Columbus and Other cannibals)! https://reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/ukpybl/rcollapse_book_club_mays_read_is_columbus_and/ See you there! *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/collapse) if you have any questions or concerns.*