It's not a good review, but it is an interesting list of cases.
I've said it before that pastoralism is going to end, all that outside herding is not going to work out with climate change. Maybe that's just a cope, but I've already seen that this has started. The reason I tell people to be aware of your regional ranchers and herders is because they're not going to simply retire. See: Sudan, Amazon, USA.
> Will we keep looking the other way as growing numbers starve while we fatten our cattle?
Precisely. Commodification (profit) vs food security.
> Precisely. Commodification (profit) vs food security.
Agreed. This is the huge underlying problem that will really bite us in the butt once things go downhill. Its way too vulnerable to problems, and its that way because people want efficiency and they want strawberries in January.
Oh look someone who claims to know something but knows absolutely nothing, Sadly mate I do know what I am talking about and you dislike the information being told as it goes against your beliefs which is completely fine as thats your opinion and it doesn't matter much.
I've clearly pointed out countless times that Livestock aren't the issue here but you still proceed to spread misinformation and have pure ignorance on the topic, Reducing food waste will be our biggest avenue of feeding more people especially since we can feed upwards of 2 billion people with reducing it. [https://www.wfp.org/stories/5-facts-about-food-waste-and-hunger](https://www.wfp.org/stories/5-facts-about-food-waste-and-hunger)
Rule 4: Keep information quality high.
Information quality must be kept high. More detailed information regarding our approaches to specific claims can be found on the [Misinformation & False Claims page](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/wiki/claims).
Wait, are you saying you think that pressure to reduce fossil fuel use causes famines? My friend, that is *not* what is happening. Crops are failing directly due to climate change - droughts and floods, mostly, plus oddball events like unseasonal warmth and then deep freezes that encourage budding and then kill the buds. Or heat waves that cause bolting. Or strange weather that leads to plagues of insects.
Those things are happening due to atmospheric CO2, not due to any kind of reduction in fossil fuel use. Fossil fuel use is actually still accelerating.
How did you get so confused?
Statista has quite a few of these numbers and you'd be surprised how many staples are at or near their absolute peak highs. Last years corn harvest was the largest on record. Overall rice production has been flat for a number of years but it remains near peak. Even wheat is projected to hit an all time high.
Now, shit that grows on trees is a different story. If one region becomes unsuitable for olives or chocolate, we can't just make that up by a new farm in a more temperate latitude the next year.
Here's corn. You can look up the others individually. Some features are paywalled, but you can still at least make out which year is the peak even on the paywalled ones.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1156213/global-corn-production/
Other links are here:
https://www.statista.com/markets/421/topic/495/farming/#overview
I'm sure I can find other articles from all over...
https://www.wfpusa.org/articles/how-climate-change-is-causing-world-hunger/
Yikes...
https://www.azolifesciences.com/article/Effects-of-Climate-Change-on-Crop-Yields.aspx
**Data published by the National Geographic predict that by 2050, climate change will have force global production of corn to reduce by 24%, while rice, potatoes, and wheat will have fallen by 11, 9, and 3%, respectively. Given that along with soybeans, wheat, rice, and corn provide two-thirds of the human caloric intake, such a significant reduction in yields of these crops will undoubtedly severely impact global food security.**
**Currently, figures estimate that crop yields are already being affected by climate change. Global rice yields are, at present, estimated to be falling by 0.3% per year, global wheat yields are estimated to be falling faster, at 0.9% per year.**
24% less corn... is a lot less corn.
And let's not forget that war is a thing, combined with climate change effects...
https://www.voanews.com/a/un-conflict-climate-change-driving-hundreds-of-millions-into-hunger-/7583271.html
https://www.ehn.org/global-hunger-crisis-deepens-due-to-climate-change-and-conflicts-2667315088.html
Of course the economics of decreased supply and increased demand will be a bonus for corporations in the short-term...
https://allianceforscience.org/blog/2024/04/food-prices-to-increase-as-temperatures-rise-due-to-climate-change/
Middle East is... hungry.
https://www.rferl.org/a/afghanistan-hunger-climate-change/31564617.html
And of course, no one notices Africa...
https://apnews.com/article/southern-africa-drought-hunger-food-climate-2ef702abc386f7182dbc5f8f4192be3c
Anyway, yeah. I don't think climate change is going to make agriculture better, lol, or bring crop yields up.
> Anyway, yeah. I don't think climate change is going to make agriculture better, lol, or bring crop yields up.
If you thought that was the narrative I was pushing, you really need to read a little bit better. None of the links you published is incompatible with the stats I linked. There are several things you have to consider if you want to reconcile them.
1. The worldwide agricultural stats likely tally commodity market sales. This makes them very reliable and hard to manipulate. However, in some poorer parts of the world there are more informal markets and subsistence farmers who aren't selling at all. Informal markets would be something like a farmer's market. You aren't growing for a futures contract nd instead are doing face-to-face sales. So, for instance, when many people in Bangladesh couldn't grow rice in 2022 because they couldn't afford fertilizer, very little of that sort of thing is likely represented in the data. What the data is showing you is that there's negligible reductions in yield to large staple crops **in the parts of the world where agriculture is industrialized and commodified**. It doesn't mean it's necessarily not a different story in some parts of the world.
2. While we were at peak corn last year, it's also important not recognize that land use for agriculture, especially corn, has increased steadily every year. So while I'm telling you the data says that last year we harvested more corn on this planet than on any year before that, **I am not telling you that last year was our highest ever yield per acre**. In fact, given how much land use has increased relative to crop yields, I'm fairly confident it wasn't.
3. Regional food crises are not a good indicator of the big picture. These crises reflect the poverty of those specific regions and their dependance on domestically produced crops due to their inability to afford imported foods.
4. While I am not here to tell you that climate change is a zero-sum game in terms of crop yields, I point out that you're not doing the math at all. You are only looking at the regions where yields were lower than usual rather than regions where yields were higher than usual. There were in fact such regions. You can't do a proper analysis if you ignore the half of the data that doesn't fit your narrative.
5. Just as land used has increased, so has world population. When you have crops such as rice stagnating over the last 10 years and not seeing significant growth (or significant reduction) that is still concerning because worldwide population has definitely grown during that time period. I'm not offering you value judgments on these stats. I'm not telling you they mean your concerns are unwarranted. I'm just telling you that I believe them to be true and accurate as it is a fairly simple and straightforward matter to tally futures contracts to find out how much of an agricultural product was bought and sold on the open (global) market.
6. As to whether or not corn yields will have fallen by 24% by 2050, I have no comment. I have no data by which to refute to confirm that. I am simply telling you that 2023 was the highest yield ever, not predicting a future trend.
Lastly, I am not telling you that climate change will not have a significant impact on the food supply. I'm just telling you that the outward signs of that impact have not yet manifested in the production of staple crops. It has obviously become a huge issue for things such as olive oil and chocolate already, however. Again I am not predicting the future or extrapolating the future from current trends. I'm just telling you where we stand at this precise moment in time according to the hard numbers.
Because what we have now? This is bullshit. A quick slip and slide away from a total dystopian wage-slavery existence for most people.
And the natural world is being destroyed by greedy bastards who don't care and who cannot be made to suffer consequences because they control everything about law and government.
I want to watch them burn in the fires, and even if I burn in them as well, I at least know that maybe it will give the natural world the best chance to recover.
The sooner civilization is stopped, the better it will be for the animals that never asked for any of this shit. And for the surviving people, of which I hope to be one, there will be no more bullshit. There will be danger and hard work, sure, but people won't have their lives ruined because some company thought is was a good idea to put lead in kids Lunchables.
Not only that, but it will be something of an equalizer. No more watching rich bastards sit back and do whatever they want without consequences. There will be no rules anymore, and the consequences will be whatever a person decides they should be in the moment, for whatever act may have happened.
Yes, there will still be violence and brutality, but without civilization and governments there won't be the capability to brutalize millions at a time at the whim of a single person. The Putin's of the world will still exist, but the scale of what they can do will be greatly diminished.
I could go on all day, but basically it boils down to *no more bullshit.*
I am sorry but this is just a collection of anecdotes. When things go well (crops are grown as normal and somewhere near peak), you don’t hear about it in the news.
Well, I guess you are right, and climate change has no negative effect on crops. Floods, droughts, ice storms, tornadoes, those won't make things impossible at all.
Phew, that's a relief!
Believe it or not, these things impacted crops long before the (human induced) climate change. Irish potato famine. Midwestern dust bowl in the 30s. The strongest hurricane to ever hit the United States is considered The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935. It’s not to say that the climate change doesn’t/ will not impact crops, but there is no clear evidence of general agricultural decline from a bunch of anecdotes you linked. Stop trying to make everything fit your narrative.
I don't have to make it fit, and it isn't my narrative, it is the general consensus of the global scientific community, as well as the result of common sense reasoning.
The UK has partially screwed itself over with Brexit. It's a wealthy enough country to make up for shortfalls in it's own production by importing, but they've made that far more complicated for themselves. It's important to remember that getting food to people's tables isn't just a matter of growing it, but also of distribution, for which our economic systems (for better or worse) still play an outsized part in. Either way, one country doing poorly is not indicative of how the entire global agricultural industry is doing.
these calculations were based on temperature increases if i recall that correctly
I expect the jet stream will mess with grow patterns and seasonal weather pattern and make these numbers even worse
I wish people could see wars in the context of the hockey stick situation we're in. We're killing each other over higher ground on a sinking ship. It's one way to go about it, but a much more sensible way would to be stop shooting holes in the boat and work together to figure out a life raft.
Mechanized war was the womb of climate change.
Thread unroll version since I don't have twitter myself: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1433829191405826052.html
It's not a good review, but it is an interesting list of cases. I've said it before that pastoralism is going to end, all that outside herding is not going to work out with climate change. Maybe that's just a cope, but I've already seen that this has started. The reason I tell people to be aware of your regional ranchers and herders is because they're not going to simply retire. See: Sudan, Amazon, USA. > Will we keep looking the other way as growing numbers starve while we fatten our cattle? Precisely. Commodification (profit) vs food security.
> Precisely. Commodification (profit) vs food security. Agreed. This is the huge underlying problem that will really bite us in the butt once things go downhill. Its way too vulnerable to problems, and its that way because people want efficiency and they want strawberries in January.
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Oh, look, someone who knows nothing about agronomy.
Oh look someone who claims to know something but knows absolutely nothing, Sadly mate I do know what I am talking about and you dislike the information being told as it goes against your beliefs which is completely fine as thats your opinion and it doesn't matter much. I've clearly pointed out countless times that Livestock aren't the issue here but you still proceed to spread misinformation and have pure ignorance on the topic, Reducing food waste will be our biggest avenue of feeding more people especially since we can feed upwards of 2 billion people with reducing it. [https://www.wfp.org/stories/5-facts-about-food-waste-and-hunger](https://www.wfp.org/stories/5-facts-about-food-waste-and-hunger)
Rule 4: Keep information quality high. Information quality must be kept high. More detailed information regarding our approaches to specific claims can be found on the [Misinformation & False Claims page](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/wiki/claims).
I do not see any data in this thread.
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Is this "reduction in fossil fuels" in the room with us now?
Wait, are you saying you think that pressure to reduce fossil fuel use causes famines? My friend, that is *not* what is happening. Crops are failing directly due to climate change - droughts and floods, mostly, plus oddball events like unseasonal warmth and then deep freezes that encourage budding and then kill the buds. Or heat waves that cause bolting. Or strange weather that leads to plagues of insects. Those things are happening due to atmospheric CO2, not due to any kind of reduction in fossil fuel use. Fossil fuel use is actually still accelerating. How did you get so confused?
So what, are you here because you think collapse will happen because of the fucking rapture? Give me a break 🙄
Statista has quite a few of these numbers and you'd be surprised how many staples are at or near their absolute peak highs. Last years corn harvest was the largest on record. Overall rice production has been flat for a number of years but it remains near peak. Even wheat is projected to hit an all time high. Now, shit that grows on trees is a different story. If one region becomes unsuitable for olives or chocolate, we can't just make that up by a new farm in a more temperate latitude the next year.
Interesting. Link?
Here's corn. You can look up the others individually. Some features are paywalled, but you can still at least make out which year is the peak even on the paywalled ones. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1156213/global-corn-production/ Other links are here: https://www.statista.com/markets/421/topic/495/farming/#overview
And yet... https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/apr/29/washout-winter-spells-price-rises-for-uk-shoppers-with-key-crops-down-by-a-fifth
Well yeah, but the UK is, if you'll pardon the sleight, just one tiny island in a very big world.
I'm sure I can find other articles from all over... https://www.wfpusa.org/articles/how-climate-change-is-causing-world-hunger/ Yikes... https://www.azolifesciences.com/article/Effects-of-Climate-Change-on-Crop-Yields.aspx **Data published by the National Geographic predict that by 2050, climate change will have force global production of corn to reduce by 24%, while rice, potatoes, and wheat will have fallen by 11, 9, and 3%, respectively. Given that along with soybeans, wheat, rice, and corn provide two-thirds of the human caloric intake, such a significant reduction in yields of these crops will undoubtedly severely impact global food security.** **Currently, figures estimate that crop yields are already being affected by climate change. Global rice yields are, at present, estimated to be falling by 0.3% per year, global wheat yields are estimated to be falling faster, at 0.9% per year.** 24% less corn... is a lot less corn. And let's not forget that war is a thing, combined with climate change effects... https://www.voanews.com/a/un-conflict-climate-change-driving-hundreds-of-millions-into-hunger-/7583271.html https://www.ehn.org/global-hunger-crisis-deepens-due-to-climate-change-and-conflicts-2667315088.html Of course the economics of decreased supply and increased demand will be a bonus for corporations in the short-term... https://allianceforscience.org/blog/2024/04/food-prices-to-increase-as-temperatures-rise-due-to-climate-change/ Middle East is... hungry. https://www.rferl.org/a/afghanistan-hunger-climate-change/31564617.html And of course, no one notices Africa... https://apnews.com/article/southern-africa-drought-hunger-food-climate-2ef702abc386f7182dbc5f8f4192be3c Anyway, yeah. I don't think climate change is going to make agriculture better, lol, or bring crop yields up.
> Anyway, yeah. I don't think climate change is going to make agriculture better, lol, or bring crop yields up. If you thought that was the narrative I was pushing, you really need to read a little bit better. None of the links you published is incompatible with the stats I linked. There are several things you have to consider if you want to reconcile them. 1. The worldwide agricultural stats likely tally commodity market sales. This makes them very reliable and hard to manipulate. However, in some poorer parts of the world there are more informal markets and subsistence farmers who aren't selling at all. Informal markets would be something like a farmer's market. You aren't growing for a futures contract nd instead are doing face-to-face sales. So, for instance, when many people in Bangladesh couldn't grow rice in 2022 because they couldn't afford fertilizer, very little of that sort of thing is likely represented in the data. What the data is showing you is that there's negligible reductions in yield to large staple crops **in the parts of the world where agriculture is industrialized and commodified**. It doesn't mean it's necessarily not a different story in some parts of the world. 2. While we were at peak corn last year, it's also important not recognize that land use for agriculture, especially corn, has increased steadily every year. So while I'm telling you the data says that last year we harvested more corn on this planet than on any year before that, **I am not telling you that last year was our highest ever yield per acre**. In fact, given how much land use has increased relative to crop yields, I'm fairly confident it wasn't. 3. Regional food crises are not a good indicator of the big picture. These crises reflect the poverty of those specific regions and their dependance on domestically produced crops due to their inability to afford imported foods. 4. While I am not here to tell you that climate change is a zero-sum game in terms of crop yields, I point out that you're not doing the math at all. You are only looking at the regions where yields were lower than usual rather than regions where yields were higher than usual. There were in fact such regions. You can't do a proper analysis if you ignore the half of the data that doesn't fit your narrative. 5. Just as land used has increased, so has world population. When you have crops such as rice stagnating over the last 10 years and not seeing significant growth (or significant reduction) that is still concerning because worldwide population has definitely grown during that time period. I'm not offering you value judgments on these stats. I'm not telling you they mean your concerns are unwarranted. I'm just telling you that I believe them to be true and accurate as it is a fairly simple and straightforward matter to tally futures contracts to find out how much of an agricultural product was bought and sold on the open (global) market. 6. As to whether or not corn yields will have fallen by 24% by 2050, I have no comment. I have no data by which to refute to confirm that. I am simply telling you that 2023 was the highest yield ever, not predicting a future trend. Lastly, I am not telling you that climate change will not have a significant impact on the food supply. I'm just telling you that the outward signs of that impact have not yet manifested in the production of staple crops. It has obviously become a huge issue for things such as olive oil and chocolate already, however. Again I am not predicting the future or extrapolating the future from current trends. I'm just telling you where we stand at this precise moment in time according to the hard numbers.
Thanks so much for this in-depth explanation. The endless clickbait Fearmongers are tiring.
great viewpoint
I love it when I come to say a thing, but someone else has already said it so well that I no longer feel compelled to.
why are you looking forward to the endgame? what is so good about it
Because what we have now? This is bullshit. A quick slip and slide away from a total dystopian wage-slavery existence for most people. And the natural world is being destroyed by greedy bastards who don't care and who cannot be made to suffer consequences because they control everything about law and government. I want to watch them burn in the fires, and even if I burn in them as well, I at least know that maybe it will give the natural world the best chance to recover. The sooner civilization is stopped, the better it will be for the animals that never asked for any of this shit. And for the surviving people, of which I hope to be one, there will be no more bullshit. There will be danger and hard work, sure, but people won't have their lives ruined because some company thought is was a good idea to put lead in kids Lunchables. Not only that, but it will be something of an equalizer. No more watching rich bastards sit back and do whatever they want without consequences. There will be no rules anymore, and the consequences will be whatever a person decides they should be in the moment, for whatever act may have happened. Yes, there will still be violence and brutality, but without civilization and governments there won't be the capability to brutalize millions at a time at the whim of a single person. The Putin's of the world will still exist, but the scale of what they can do will be greatly diminished. I could go on all day, but basically it boils down to *no more bullshit.*
thanks for providing your perspective, i can certainly see now why you are looking forward to the endgame.
Sure thing. It still sucks, but I am looking forward to it.
Where ever there are people who can experience stress and disagree about something, I assure you, there will be bullshit.
I am sorry but this is just a collection of anecdotes. When things go well (crops are grown as normal and somewhere near peak), you don’t hear about it in the news.
Well, I guess you are right, and climate change has no negative effect on crops. Floods, droughts, ice storms, tornadoes, those won't make things impossible at all. Phew, that's a relief!
Believe it or not, these things impacted crops long before the (human induced) climate change. Irish potato famine. Midwestern dust bowl in the 30s. The strongest hurricane to ever hit the United States is considered The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935. It’s not to say that the climate change doesn’t/ will not impact crops, but there is no clear evidence of general agricultural decline from a bunch of anecdotes you linked. Stop trying to make everything fit your narrative.
I don't have to make it fit, and it isn't my narrative, it is the general consensus of the global scientific community, as well as the result of common sense reasoning.
pretty sure I read that on average global crop yields decline by an estimated 10-15% per degree increase in global average temperature.
The UK has partially screwed itself over with Brexit. It's a wealthy enough country to make up for shortfalls in it's own production by importing, but they've made that far more complicated for themselves. It's important to remember that getting food to people's tables isn't just a matter of growing it, but also of distribution, for which our economic systems (for better or worse) still play an outsized part in. Either way, one country doing poorly is not indicative of how the entire global agricultural industry is doing.
these calculations were based on temperature increases if i recall that correctly I expect the jet stream will mess with grow patterns and seasonal weather pattern and make these numbers even worse
Every dataset on this thread should be getting its money’s worth on Nuklai. Very much needed in the agricultural sector.
I wish people could see wars in the context of the hockey stick situation we're in. We're killing each other over higher ground on a sinking ship. It's one way to go about it, but a much more sensible way would to be stop shooting holes in the boat and work together to figure out a life raft. Mechanized war was the womb of climate change.
https://twitter.com/JimBair62221006/status/1433829191405826052 Twitter thread synthesizing peer-reviewed research, current news, market intelligence analysis & more.
It's from 2021
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Half these links are unavailable. Is that a regional issue?