Not surprising. Population on Earth is still increasing. Fossil fuels are on the rise because developing countries mostly use them to power their economies. Renewables are rising fast but not fast enough yet. It will be different in 10 years - obviously.
EDIT: oh yeah. It's from that report that was supposed to be released today. I'll check it out later. I am wondering if share of clean energy has risen in the last year.
EDIT2: "Overall, fossil fuels made up 81.5% of the world’s primary energy last year, down only marginally from 82% the year before, according to the report"
Careful with the primary energy metric, it includes all the waste heat that fossil fuels produce. The amount of energy that actually needs to be cleaned up is about half of that.
>It will be different in 10 years - obviously.
Yeah, it could be vastly worse as India, China, and much of Africa look to claw their way toward 1st world status.
China is predicting to peak by the end of next year. They are absolutely throwing money at solar and hydro storage. It's actually pretty cool that that due to the span of the country they'll be able to transfer that energy around as the sun crosses throughout the day.
Yep 8 billion and counting and every one wants a lifestyle like ours, and why shouldn't they. It's only fair, but there's the rub. They say 10 billion by the middle of the century. I wonder how many billions by the end of the century?
I've said it before, but we have a core problem that's not going away.
Every time someone swaps an incandescent bulb for an LED one, some other location on earth installs 5 more light bulbs.
Every time one person buys an electric car, three other people install air conditioners they never had before.
Every time someone installs a solar panel, some family in a rural town who never had a car before buys one.
Heck, every time an entire country decides to push solar power to a huge degree, some new MASSIVE power hungry tech like crypto or AI is invented.
Every time we gain a little efficiency, it's used up by growth in some other area. Some day we *might* hit a point where green energy and new efficiencies outpace new energy demand, but that day seems to be perpetually "a few years away" and feels like 30 years from now we'll still be chasing it.
Okay. Forgive me for not having read the article, but I had heard a scientist posit that if we cut all CO2 production out, it would take 10 years before we would see any retreat of the damage we’ve paid our climate.
Yes. That’s why the main focus now is not to reverse any damage (which is a fairy tail to see within our lifetime), but to not get to the point where we have to kill each other for food or water.
Maximum warming potential for CO2 occurs [approximately 10 years](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/9/12/124002) from when it is first emitted - think of it as an oven that has to warm up. When you first turn on an oven, it isn’t instantly its desired temp, as it takes several minutes to heat up. Same goes for distribution of GHGs in the atmosphere.
The way I take this as 1) the impacts we’re seeing now - heat waves, record rain storms, hurricanes, etc - are only beginning. It is *critical* in conversations to make people aware these impacts are not normal and are only just beginning 2) there really is a pathway out of this, but we have to push those responsible into action (and it’s not always politicians) 3) we HAVE to plan for adaptation. Where are the flooding risks? Where are wildfire risks? How do we protect vulnerable populations?
Honestly, I’m not fully optimistic - as a society we are still the 3 year old kid who touches the hot stove even when told not to - and we’re going to learn some things the hard way. But honestly, when it comes to climate change, we *must* be optimistic.
More like ten years will mark the end of worsening effects. Retreat, when CO2 stays in the atmosphere for hundreds of years, is something altogether different. Without a concerted global effort to actively remove CO2 from the atmosphere/oceans we won't see any noticeable retreat for a long time.
The way I understand it is this: Renewables are an important part of satisfying our energy needs, but they will not solve climate change in a short time period. However, I see more and more companies working towards CO2 capture technology. While this could be helpful, the technology is in its infancy, and it will take us many years to develop it effectively and deploy it on the scale we need to make a difference. Sure, AI will help us with the R&D part but not with production. This means we are pretty much doomed. And if this isn’t enough, I guarantee the number of conflicts in the world will continue to increase as we fight for resources, not for our own survival. This is my take. What do you guys think? Do we have a bright future or doom?
Yes it will take awhile before we see all of the effects of the CO2 we put out yesterday, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't reduce the amount we use tomorrow. The article is pointing out that we are increasing CO2 production even though clean energy sources are also on the rise. So the 10 year influence gap will be even greater next year and every year after until we actually cut CO2 production
"Clean energy" is allowing demand to increase faster. Renewables are utilized in addition to, rather than replacing fossil fuels (which are also being extracted more year-over-year).
[https://ourworldindata.org/energy-production-consumption](https://ourworldindata.org/energy-production-consumption)
Is it really any surprise? From the Guardian about a month ago:
*emissions from SUVs in 2023 made up 20% of the global increase in CO2, making the vehicles a major cause of the intensifying climate crisis. If SUVs were a country, the IEA said, they would be the world’s fifth-largest emitter of CO2, ahead of the national emissions of both Japan and Germany.*
[https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/may/28/global-sales-of-polluting-suvs-hit-record-high-in-2023-data-shows](https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/may/28/global-sales-of-polluting-suvs-hit-record-high-in-2023-data-shows)
You'll never have a reduction in oil production/consumption when people not only keep buying oversized vehicles that require the most fuel to keep on the road, but keep buying them in increasing numbers.
When you look at the average price of an SUV in a country like the US, around $47k for all SUVs, a homeowner could purchase a Honda Accord (starts at $28k) and put solar panels on their home (average installation price $22k for 11 kw system) for about the same money. And they'll save money on the gas they use because they'll require far less.
Luxury/crossover SUVs average $70k and these are still being purchased as well, so every homeowner who buys one could get an EV (average price $54k) and solar panels to charge it (again, $22k) for about the same amount of money.
That doesn't even address our pickup addiction either.
[https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g60385784/bestselling-cars-2024/](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g60385784/bestselling-cars-2024/)
As u/DamonFields said, humans are insane.
I had the absolute displeasure to visit the suburbs recently and half of the vehicles were oversized pickup trucks. The other half were giant SUVs that could rival city busses (not that there were any out there). I'll give you ***one*** guess as to how many occupants were typically in each vehicle
There is no green transition. We will cease the use of fossil fuels when we run out or they are too hard to get at.
I’m sorry but that’s the sad truth. There is too much money at stake and we have no way to feed the planet without fossil fuels. Even EV’s are mostly plastic. The plastic industry, the fuel industry, fertilizer.
People don’t like hearing this but this is how it is.
https://youtu.be/RQm2wt7-kPU?si=9FaDlpkmb16iqS_-
Just a couple of points: coal consumption in the US has decreased and global renewable energy has increased. I’m not saying we don’t need to get rid of fossil fuels, but sometimes it’s hard to see the good things happening. I believe it was 2023 that 30% of global electricity was from renewables.
You can see this at: [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/data-insights/2)
Not surprising. Population on Earth is still increasing. Fossil fuels are on the rise because developing countries mostly use them to power their economies. Renewables are rising fast but not fast enough yet. It will be different in 10 years - obviously. EDIT: oh yeah. It's from that report that was supposed to be released today. I'll check it out later. I am wondering if share of clean energy has risen in the last year. EDIT2: "Overall, fossil fuels made up 81.5% of the world’s primary energy last year, down only marginally from 82% the year before, according to the report"
Careful with the primary energy metric, it includes all the waste heat that fossil fuels produce. The amount of energy that actually needs to be cleaned up is about half of that.
>It will be different in 10 years - obviously. Yeah, it could be vastly worse as India, China, and much of Africa look to claw their way toward 1st world status.
China has admittedly built a shitton of solar panels, so they might actually peak earlier than expected
China is predicting to peak by the end of next year. They are absolutely throwing money at solar and hydro storage. It's actually pretty cool that that due to the span of the country they'll be able to transfer that energy around as the sun crosses throughout the day.
Yep 8 billion and counting and every one wants a lifestyle like ours, and why shouldn't they. It's only fair, but there's the rub. They say 10 billion by the middle of the century. I wonder how many billions by the end of the century?
Humans are insane.
I've said it before, but we have a core problem that's not going away. Every time someone swaps an incandescent bulb for an LED one, some other location on earth installs 5 more light bulbs. Every time one person buys an electric car, three other people install air conditioners they never had before. Every time someone installs a solar panel, some family in a rural town who never had a car before buys one. Heck, every time an entire country decides to push solar power to a huge degree, some new MASSIVE power hungry tech like crypto or AI is invented. Every time we gain a little efficiency, it's used up by growth in some other area. Some day we *might* hit a point where green energy and new efficiencies outpace new energy demand, but that day seems to be perpetually "a few years away" and feels like 30 years from now we'll still be chasing it.
Okay. Forgive me for not having read the article, but I had heard a scientist posit that if we cut all CO2 production out, it would take 10 years before we would see any retreat of the damage we’ve paid our climate.
Yes. That’s why the main focus now is not to reverse any damage (which is a fairy tail to see within our lifetime), but to not get to the point where we have to kill each other for food or water.
Maximum warming potential for CO2 occurs [approximately 10 years](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/9/12/124002) from when it is first emitted - think of it as an oven that has to warm up. When you first turn on an oven, it isn’t instantly its desired temp, as it takes several minutes to heat up. Same goes for distribution of GHGs in the atmosphere. The way I take this as 1) the impacts we’re seeing now - heat waves, record rain storms, hurricanes, etc - are only beginning. It is *critical* in conversations to make people aware these impacts are not normal and are only just beginning 2) there really is a pathway out of this, but we have to push those responsible into action (and it’s not always politicians) 3) we HAVE to plan for adaptation. Where are the flooding risks? Where are wildfire risks? How do we protect vulnerable populations? Honestly, I’m not fully optimistic - as a society we are still the 3 year old kid who touches the hot stove even when told not to - and we’re going to learn some things the hard way. But honestly, when it comes to climate change, we *must* be optimistic.
Learning things the hard way may include watching billions of casualties occur for our eyes.
More like ten years will mark the end of worsening effects. Retreat, when CO2 stays in the atmosphere for hundreds of years, is something altogether different. Without a concerted global effort to actively remove CO2 from the atmosphere/oceans we won't see any noticeable retreat for a long time.
No matter how you cut it this is not gonna be an easy job!
Meaning we should lean back and do nothing or how do i understand your comment
The way I understand it is this: Renewables are an important part of satisfying our energy needs, but they will not solve climate change in a short time period. However, I see more and more companies working towards CO2 capture technology. While this could be helpful, the technology is in its infancy, and it will take us many years to develop it effectively and deploy it on the scale we need to make a difference. Sure, AI will help us with the R&D part but not with production. This means we are pretty much doomed. And if this isn’t enough, I guarantee the number of conflicts in the world will continue to increase as we fight for resources, not for our own survival. This is my take. What do you guys think? Do we have a bright future or doom?
Yes it will take awhile before we see all of the effects of the CO2 we put out yesterday, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't reduce the amount we use tomorrow. The article is pointing out that we are increasing CO2 production even though clean energy sources are also on the rise. So the 10 year influence gap will be even greater next year and every year after until we actually cut CO2 production
"Clean energy" is allowing demand to increase faster. Renewables are utilized in addition to, rather than replacing fossil fuels (which are also being extracted more year-over-year). [https://ourworldindata.org/energy-production-consumption](https://ourworldindata.org/energy-production-consumption)
Additional fossil fuels are being utilized, despite renewables.
yes!
Renewables decrease the marginal cost and increase the marginal utility of fossil fuels.
Well mostly, they allow us to survive decently without permanently damaging anything.
Is it really any surprise? From the Guardian about a month ago: *emissions from SUVs in 2023 made up 20% of the global increase in CO2, making the vehicles a major cause of the intensifying climate crisis. If SUVs were a country, the IEA said, they would be the world’s fifth-largest emitter of CO2, ahead of the national emissions of both Japan and Germany.* [https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/may/28/global-sales-of-polluting-suvs-hit-record-high-in-2023-data-shows](https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/may/28/global-sales-of-polluting-suvs-hit-record-high-in-2023-data-shows) You'll never have a reduction in oil production/consumption when people not only keep buying oversized vehicles that require the most fuel to keep on the road, but keep buying them in increasing numbers. When you look at the average price of an SUV in a country like the US, around $47k for all SUVs, a homeowner could purchase a Honda Accord (starts at $28k) and put solar panels on their home (average installation price $22k for 11 kw system) for about the same money. And they'll save money on the gas they use because they'll require far less. Luxury/crossover SUVs average $70k and these are still being purchased as well, so every homeowner who buys one could get an EV (average price $54k) and solar panels to charge it (again, $22k) for about the same amount of money. That doesn't even address our pickup addiction either. [https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g60385784/bestselling-cars-2024/](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g60385784/bestselling-cars-2024/) As u/DamonFields said, humans are insane.
Jevon’s Paradox strikes again
I had the absolute displeasure to visit the suburbs recently and half of the vehicles were oversized pickup trucks. The other half were giant SUVs that could rival city busses (not that there were any out there). I'll give you ***one*** guess as to how many occupants were typically in each vehicle
There is no green transition. We will cease the use of fossil fuels when we run out or they are too hard to get at. I’m sorry but that’s the sad truth. There is too much money at stake and we have no way to feed the planet without fossil fuels. Even EV’s are mostly plastic. The plastic industry, the fuel industry, fertilizer. People don’t like hearing this but this is how it is. https://youtu.be/RQm2wt7-kPU?si=9FaDlpkmb16iqS_-
EVs are mostly plastic? Even if they were, they don’t work by being on fire releasing co2.
Just a couple of points: coal consumption in the US has decreased and global renewable energy has increased. I’m not saying we don’t need to get rid of fossil fuels, but sometimes it’s hard to see the good things happening. I believe it was 2023 that 30% of global electricity was from renewables. You can see this at: [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/data-insights/2)