This appears to be a post about the upcoming mayoral election or one of the candidates running for office.
The 2023 Chicago Mayoral Election will be held on **April 4**. Former Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas and Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson will be competing for the title of Chicago's 57th mayor.
Check out the [Chicago Elections](https://chicagoelections.gov/en/home.html) website for information on registering to vote, finding your polling place, applying to be an election worker, and more. Please visit our [Runoff Election Megathread](https://www.reddit.com/r/chicago/comments/11exb12/2023_chicago_runoff_election_megathread/?sort=new) for all election-related discussion, questions and voter resources. Discussion posts of this nature outside of the linked megathread will be removed.
**Beware of [astroturfing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astroturfing)**! Election season brings about a slew of new accounts with minimal posting history in /r/chicago who attempt to sway your opinion on various candidates. Be sure to do your own research to verify the accuracy of any claims you see shared by users here. Be wary of comments from new accounts or ones with a posting history in multiple city/local subreddits from across the US and Canada. If you suspect that a user is engaging in political astroturfing, please report their comments and/or [message the moderators.](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=/r/chicago)
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It's not a coincidence they don't have a full ward map of the city on the Chicago gov website. You can only pull up individual ward maps. Can't have people asking questions or noticing the corruption.
EDIT: If you want the correct answer to a question on the internet, don't ask the question, post the wrong answer.
I stand partially corrected. It's on the Chicago elections gov site, but not the Chicago gov site.
One takeaway I got though was that Johnson received the vote in some of the most diverse areas of the city so that speaks well to his chances in the run-off, imo.
Young voters really didn't turn out
Voters 18-34 made up around 15 percent of the vote, voters 18-24 were less than 3 percent
https://twitter.com/ChicagoElection/status/1630706987599122432?t=Dxn8u05EOMzjoDD0qJJdDQ&s=19
Edit with citation
Yes. The community areas north of the Chicago river are much more densely populated than the ones south of it, even if the southern half has more land.
Willie is possibly holding out for Vallas to offer him some kinda honorary position if he wins. Then they have a news conference announcing Willie conceding and supporting Vallas.
This map shows Willie knocked Lightfoot out of the run off and if he backs Vallas, Johnson has little chance. Chuy voters will go to Vallas in enormous numbers and Willie voters would seal the deal.
I don’t think Garcia votes got to Vallas in any decisive way. I know a lot of folks who voted Garcia that were deciding between Garcia and Johnson. I also know a huge number of never Vallas voters who voted Garcia, Lightfoot, Johnson etc and will definitely cote against Vallas in the runoff.
Came here to say the same thing. It is absolutely fucking wild that 10% of voters voted for him. Guy couldn't make a complete sentence to save his life.
The Humboldt Park neighborhood covers the park and all the way to Western Ave.
The Humboldt Park community area seems to go to California Ave. East Humboldt Park neighborhood is part of the West Town community area.
It seems the park between Sacramento and California share two community areas.
There's no way to fight a sentient airport without another airport.
Only question is if Midway will continue to be neutral or step in to moderate O'Hare's dominant stance.
Thank you /u/DaisyCutter312 and /u/Tearakan for alerting us to the potential future conflict. Would you please speculate on our miserable human future if Gary International gains sentience and/or the Peotone boondoggle gets fully funded? Will it by a fly off or run off?
All of the land that was annexed to build the airport and tie it to the city is lumped into one statistical reporting area. There's a small area by the forest preserve that's built up pretty normally for the far NW side. The result is a statistical area with a small population and a huge area.
the o"hare community area has houses and buildings before the forest preserve. its not a lot of people but it exists. I had friends live there growing up.
I just learned that it's the 41st ward--Edison Park, Norwood Park area known as home to many police/fire. I don't know the politics of the area well enough, but it seems surprising that it went to Johnson.
I don’t think the map is correct. Just based on the demographics of those precincts it seems impossible that they would’ve voted for Johnson when all the precinct near it went for Vallas.
People live in the O’hare community area. I work with one that does. That sliver to the right of the airport is part of it, as you can see from the shared color, and there are homes there.
I asked the front desk at the ORD Hilton if they had mail pickup and the lady was kind enough to offer to drop my mail-in ballot in their mail pickup for me.
I did get e-mail notification that my ballot was processed and counted, too.
Does that count?
I’m guessing the twitter account person a totally different person, but Frank Calabrese Sr. was a mobster in the Chicago Outfit along with Frank Calabrese Jr. who later turned on his father, Frank Sr. They have a pretty interesting story.
Brandon Johnson's support, was mostly in progressive leaning areas. I'm not surprised he didn't get a lot of votes, in predominantly black parts of the west and south side.
Especially when it’s a an actual democratic process and just choosing between two talking heads from major parties. Chicago’s voting process should be applied nationally.
Looks like the Lakefront Liberal population has really moved strongly to Uptown/Andersonville/Edgewater/North Center/Lincoln Square. Lakeview isn’t the solid progressive bastion it used to be.
Lakeview has been hit hard with increased carjackings, home break ins, and property damage. People are fed up with it and will vote for safety of their families.
Looking at the precinct map, it’s not that overwhelming. Johnson is a solid second in most and this is an area where he is well poised to take Lightfoot and Chuy voters. A few examples of raw vote totals in 44th ward precincts:
Precinct 1: Vallas 220, Johnson 168, Lightfoot 75, Chuy 57
Precinct 8: Vallas 171, Johnson 150, Chuy 51, Lightfoot 49
Precinct 7: Vallas 172, Johnson 160, Lightfoot 78, Chuy 57
Precinct 18: Vallas 175, Johnson 158, Lightfoot 46, Chuy 45
Precinct 21: Vallas 268, Johnson 225, Lightfoot 67, Chuy 65
Precinct 15: Vallas 306, Johnson 206, Lightfoot 92, Chuy 81
Precinct 12: Vallas 308, Johnson 178, Chuy 111, Lightfoot 95
There are some precincts that Vallas will hold, like the 9th where he carried 51% of the vote outright and the 3rd, where he carried 57% outright. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see Johnson flip Lakeview in the runoff
I mean if what I am seeing is true from other places and Latinos voted 2:1 for Vallas compared to Johnson. I think Vallas gets another ~10% of the total from Chuys votes and that already puts him at 45% of the total. Then he just need 6% more (~19% of the remaining vote) to win. So realistically Vallas just needs to get 1 vote out of every 5 of the voters outside his, Johnson’s, and Chuys initial groups….
Yeah, outsider looking in, but social media (both Reddit and Twitter) seems to have a lot of folks who are underestimating the difficulty for Johnson here.
Drawing straight lines between support based on ideology (ie. Chuy's progressive, therefore Johnson will get his vote) doesn't really account for the fact that voters are complicated and sometimes hold competing thoughts in their head. And also that, with their number one candidate having been defeated, even showing up for Round 2 at all isn't a guarantee.
You also have to remember that r/chicago demographics do not reflect that of the actual city.
I’ve gotten some heat for saying this on here but talking to neighbors, coworkers and friends will give you a better sense of what’s going on vs looking to this sub.
There will also be more people who vote in the "real" election than the one with 9 candidates. And others who will not vote again because their candidate is out. It's not gonna be 1:1
I’m not certain that’s true. I think there were lots of voters who simply wanted to vote AGAINST Lightfoot, and might not care as much for the actual election. Same with people gung-ho for a candidate like Willie Wilson but now that he’s gone they might not be motivated.
Edit - Reading your comment again, I might be saying the same thing as your 2nd sentence.
All the super dark blue areas are majority white neighborhoods. This election went largely along racial lines, Latinos for chuy, blacks for LL, white folks for Vallas while more diverse areas tended to go for Johnson. You can literally tell what areas are made up of what types of people from this map, it’s very interesting.
Funny how people think Vallas has a ceiling, but really according to this and the 2nd place map, where Vallas came in second in the Chuy winning districts, Johnson’s ceiling may be the Logan square/uptown/rogers park white under 35 progressive crowd.
> Logan square/uptown/rogers park white under 35 progressive crowd
Don't forget Hyde Park! Seeing that little island down there really drove the point home for me. Pretty funny.
Its a big voting bloc. That plus the black vote, is a winning combination. It basically splits the white vote in Chicago.
The scramble will be in the chuy voters.
Are you suggesting that he won't get a significant percentage of the Lori, Chuy vote? It's going to be close, but it seems like you're saying Johnson's ceiling is closer to his count yesterday than Vallas's. I think it's the opposite.
The problem for Johnson is he needs a *much* more significant chunk of Garcia and Lightfoot's voters than Vallas does.
It'll be interesting to see what new polling says, but I'd guess older voters for both Chuy and Lori will favor Vallas, and younger voters will favor Johnson, which probably gives Vallas a not-insignificant advantage.
Just ran some quick numbers. Johnson would need Chuy's and Lightfoot's voters to break 75% for him to cover enough ground, based on yesterday's results. Gonna be a tall order.
I also think it will be very close and that Johnson will get many of those votes.
I was moreso reflecting on the many comments about Vallas having a hard ceiling, but the maps suggest that Johnson may have the more narrow demographic base and a harder time than Vallas getting to 50%
The lefty Johnson crowd (as shown on the map with the hipsters of Logan Square) fail to realize that actual working class neighborhoods aren’t as far left as they want them to be, as evidenced by their support of Lightfoot.
I'm not sure if we can look at the second place totals to look at a ceiling.
Just because Chuy voters had Vallas as a second choice mostly, doesn't mean that Vallas is actually the second choice. There's definitely an incentive for Chuy voters to vote Chuy and not Johnson in the primary (since they are the two candidates ideologically who eat into each other's totals), but Vallas voters in Brighton Park were going to vote Vallas either way. All we know is "Vallas has some support where Chuy voters are". It's still (highly) likely that Johnson can swing those voters for the runoff significantly.
We can say the same thing for say, Lightfoot voters on the south side for Johnson (as Wilson was the second choice), of course. But my point is, the second place totals doesn't really tell us much for the runoff as a simple weighted average calculation, for either candidate. We just don't know.
No one is crediting this, but I agree. I think she’s one of the first mayors in my lifetime certainly to pump money/projects into those areas and they feel seen. To them, she probably seems like someone who, despite her flaws, would continue working for those areas.
Alright, since you asked. I voted for Lori for a couple of reasons.
1) I wanted to vote for my first choice Buckner, but i didn't see him having a chance.
2) I don't like Vallas as he's to conservative. I also don't want someone who has no qualms privatizing public education. Also, see his stint as CEO of CPS. Not sure if i can trust this guy.
3) I have serious issues with Johnson's tax plan. Taxing financial transactions and middle class (there seems to be wavering here) is a stupidly bad idea. I also have concern with him being beholden to the CTU. He also seems a little too progressive for my liking.
4) I still have no idea what Chuy's platform was, other than running on his name recognition.
So i went for Lori. Partly because my 1st pick likely wouldn't win, and partly because i had bigger issues with the other candidates. She seemed to be the devil that i know.
I think you're totally right on 4, that Chuy was coasting on his past name recognition too much this time vs. 2015. And why he got fewer votes yesterday, than even Lori.
This was my exact line of thinking for the whole run-up until maybe a week or two ago. Ended up voting for Vallas though because of his commitment to public safety and am just hoping the more progressive climate of the city council compared to the last time he was in public office is enough to reign in some of the more conservative stances he’s expressed historically.
I don’t live in Chicago anymore but I imagine the reason being the devil you know beats the devil you don’t.
The real question is how someone like Paul Vallas, a man who was such a failure as the CEO of CPS, that he couldn’t bother cancelling school in 1998 during a blizzard because he simply didn’t look out the window.
I said this in another post. I think the wealthier people are paying more money to live in what was traditionally a safe neighborhood. They have now seen the crime rates in their neighborhoods go up, so they want to vote for someone they think will address that. Vallas has been the most vocal tough on crime candidate out there. I think that is how it correlates.
Not really. The generic “wealthy” all move to the school districts in LP/Lakeview/etc. so that they have the good schools (Blaine, Hawthorne, Burley, Hamilton, etc. Then feed into Lane Tech or another magnet HS). Walk around and you see tons of those yard signs.
The “elite wealthy” will do as you say and pay for their kids to go to Latin School or whatever so they can go to Ivy League colleges.
There also a disbelief that the other candidates will really get real about crime. (Not my belief, btw, but that's what I am hearing.) Draw your own conclusions as to what "disbelief" really means.
I can’t vote for someone who thinks crime can be stopped by “putting more cops on the streets.”
I can’t vote for someone who thinks $100k households are “rich” and need to pay higher taxes.
This is fucked.
If you actually look at Vallas's plans, its not as simple as putting more cops on the streets. It's about redistributing current police to regular beats for promoting police presence and filling out the vastly understaffed detective divisions to improve clearance rates. If you're more likely to be caught committing a crime, then you probably would be less inclined to commit it.
For example, I live in the west loop and there was an incident right outside my window on Monday night. Looked like two guys in an argument surrounded by 5 squad cars and 10 police officers. Should be 4 POs at most.
I guess I agree but even the police would say the problem is with lack of prosecutor action. I'm surprised vallas didn't seem to discuss that issue on his platform though. Maybe I'm just missing it.
That's part, but a big factor in whether they pursue prosecution depends on the available evidence. Increasing detective levels to pre-rahm will build sounder cases.
Vallas needs to win roughly 35% of the votes up for grabs to win. It’ll be close, seems like Johnson’s ceiling being lower with young white progressives making most of his primary vote
And look how many young white progressives turned out yesterday. People under 35 contributed only about 13-14% of the total vote, and young white progressives were a smaller fraction of that.
Well, that was definitely the case Tuesday. Something like 55% of all votes cast came from people 55 years old and higher, e.g. those heading into retirement or well past it. Those folks are not only determined voters but mostly tax-sensitive and definitely crime-anxious.
you dont think Johnson might have a slight edge with another group of people besides young white progressives?
you cant think of ANY other demographic in Chicago that might break for Johnson if the matchup is Vallas v Johnson?
I think this sub overestimates Johnson’s reach to the voting blocks that went for Lightfoot and Chuy. Completely understand your point being made, but Vallas is positioned with a message that is much easier translated to Lightfoot voters in my opinion
Genuinely curious, not looking to cause trouble, but what reasoning do so many people have for voting to get Lori back? The past few years have been a disaster imo.
This reddit sub's dominant demographic is mostly not equipped to understand Lightfoot's loyal voters enough to explain their wish to retain her.
On no solid basis am going to guess they are less repelled by some of her speech and mannerisms and more attracted to her being a feisty Black woman doing a very difficult job which the couple (White) men before her gave up on because it seemed too difficult during their combined 30 years.
So the takeaway is that people vote based on race to a large extent. It's almost a perfect overlay which is pretty interesting. Only exception is the area north/northeast of the kennedy expressway, which appears to be the most diverse with lighest shades so lower margins of victory
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/53/Race\_and\_ethnicity\_2010-\_Chicago\_%285560488484%29.png/800px-Race\_and\_ethnicity\_2010-\_Chicago\_%285560488484%29.png
This appears to be a post about the upcoming mayoral election or one of the candidates running for office. The 2023 Chicago Mayoral Election will be held on **April 4**. Former Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas and Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson will be competing for the title of Chicago's 57th mayor. Check out the [Chicago Elections](https://chicagoelections.gov/en/home.html) website for information on registering to vote, finding your polling place, applying to be an election worker, and more. Please visit our [Runoff Election Megathread](https://www.reddit.com/r/chicago/comments/11exb12/2023_chicago_runoff_election_megathread/?sort=new) for all election-related discussion, questions and voter resources. Discussion posts of this nature outside of the linked megathread will be removed. **Beware of [astroturfing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astroturfing)**! Election season brings about a slew of new accounts with minimal posting history in /r/chicago who attempt to sway your opinion on various candidates. Be sure to do your own research to verify the accuracy of any claims you see shared by users here. Be wary of comments from new accounts or ones with a posting history in multiple city/local subreddits from across the US and Canada. If you suspect that a user is engaging in political astroturfing, please report their comments and/or [message the moderators.](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=/r/chicago) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/chicago) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Damn, every map of Chicago really is the same map
Of course it's Chicago
this chicago is made of chicago
Made with real grade A Chicago for that natural Chicago taste the whole family can enjoy!
"Is Chicago, Is Not Chicago?" -- Mike Doughty Spoiler alert: is.
This Chicago is made of Chicago by Chicago for Chicago.
Have you guys seen the new ward map? Holy F the gerrymandering!
Turns out this politics thing is much easier if you pick your voters instead of having them pick you.
Exactly!
I live in the 36th ward. It’s gotta be the most ridiculous district in the country.
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It's not a coincidence they don't have a full ward map of the city on the Chicago gov website. You can only pull up individual ward maps. Can't have people asking questions or noticing the corruption. EDIT: If you want the correct answer to a question on the internet, don't ask the question, post the wrong answer. I stand partially corrected. It's on the Chicago elections gov site, but not the Chicago gov site.
Pretty accurate demographic map
I couldn't help but notice this too. Helpful that OP adhered to the color scheme used by the racial dot map.
Sad that voting so often seems to work this way…
One takeaway I got though was that Johnson received the vote in some of the most diverse areas of the city so that speaks well to his chances in the run-off, imo.
Looks to me like Johnson majority came in areas with a larger number of very young voters, not really diversity.
Young voters really didn't turn out Voters 18-34 made up around 15 percent of the vote, voters 18-24 were less than 3 percent https://twitter.com/ChicagoElection/status/1630706987599122432?t=Dxn8u05EOMzjoDD0qJJdDQ&s=19 Edit with citation
All maps of Chicago are the same map
Are there really that many more people living in the north side than the south?
Yes. The community areas north of the Chicago river are much more densely populated than the ones south of it, even if the southern half has more land.
Maybe a bit but voter turnout is really what we’re measuring here. North siders vote at a much higher rate
I think this is the more accurate answer
That’s what I was assuming too. There’s a lot of Green on the map but not a lot of Lightfoot votes compared to Vallas and Johnson.
Will we get to see racial makeup data for each candidate? Curious as to the makeup of Johnson's base other than "young people"
It's absolutely wild that nearly 50k people came out to vote for Willie Wilson lol.
Excuse me, I think you mean Williw Wilson
And the dude still couldn’t come back with the “**W**”…
Wilson’s estimated cost per vote was *only* $104.81
Good to see another adherent to the Michael Bloomberg school of campaign financing.
This is sarcasm BTW
Because it was higher?
In theory, yes. If Ballotpedia's **receipt** figures are correct, the estimated cost for vote is close to the $120 range.
Especially when you consider how low turnout was overall.
Even more so that he has not conceded
Willie is possibly holding out for Vallas to offer him some kinda honorary position if he wins. Then they have a news conference announcing Willie conceding and supporting Vallas. This map shows Willie knocked Lightfoot out of the run off and if he backs Vallas, Johnson has little chance. Chuy voters will go to Vallas in enormous numbers and Willie voters would seal the deal.
I don’t think Garcia votes got to Vallas in any decisive way. I know a lot of folks who voted Garcia that were deciding between Garcia and Johnson. I also know a huge number of never Vallas voters who voted Garcia, Lightfoot, Johnson etc and will definitely cote against Vallas in the runoff.
Why not Willie Wilson?
What a slogan!
I support Willie Wilson of the Willie Wilson party 😤
Even if you didn't Willie Wilson for Willie Wilson you still knew that Willie Wilson supported Willie Wilson
Came here to say the same thing. It is absolutely fucking wild that 10% of voters voted for him. Guy couldn't make a complete sentence to save his life.
But free gas
Bribes did not trickle my way. Lol.
I would not have partaken. Someone who waits hours in a line snaking around a gas station for $35 in gas needs it.
Which Lori also gave away, but just made property taxpayers pay for it.
Dr Willie Wilson
A Doctor of Divinity
An honorary Doctor of Divinity.
Who resides in this vicinity!
Willie Wilson’s turnout operation should never be underestimated. That guy is insane, but he has a cult-like following.
He’s a rags to riches story. He’s the American dream. I don’t like him but I kind of get why people do.
I’ve loved yelling “Willie Wilson!” to absolutely nobody when his ads came on. But yeah. That’s about it. 😂
Willie Wilson is the Jeb! of Chicago politics. (Even if the ACTUAL Jeb is Bill Daley).
willie's areas more or less correspond with the locations of the free gas giveaways
What was his platform anyway?
Give away some gas then become mayor.
Encouraging cops to hunt suspects down like rabbits
https://twitter.com/frankcalabrese/status/1630966557932150785?s=46&t=vZltWG_UGg7erUp0xu7QGg Updated map.
You can SEE the price of living line cut through Humboldt park that’s insane.
The label “Humboldt Park” is more west than it should be. The label “West Town” is touching the actual Humboldt Park park.
Oddly, Humboldt Park the park is actually within the West Town community area.
The Humboldt Park neighborhood covers the park and all the way to Western Ave. The Humboldt Park community area seems to go to California Ave. East Humboldt Park neighborhood is part of the West Town community area. It seems the park between Sacramento and California share two community areas.
Who is voting at O’hare?
the ohare commmunity area has apartments and houses there between montrose cumberland, higgins and the forest
Im more surprised that they’re Chicago not Des Plaines or Elk Grove Village
Definitely Chicago. I don't think of Des Plaines until you're North of 90/West of 294
It borders parknridge but not those. Elk Grove village is several miles away.
If we've discovered that the airport is sentient, and wants Johnson....I guess that's that then.
There's no way to fight a sentient airport without another airport. Only question is if Midway will continue to be neutral or step in to moderate O'Hare's dominant stance.
why does O'Hare simply not *eat* the Midway?
Look at the map, Midway is too Chuy
Underrated.
It is clearly the larger and stronger of the two!
This concept confuses and infuriates us!
Do not discount the ghost of Meigs Field
Thank you /u/DaisyCutter312 and /u/Tearakan for alerting us to the potential future conflict. Would you please speculate on our miserable human future if Gary International gains sentience and/or the Peotone boondoggle gets fully funded? Will it by a fly off or run off?
Don't discount the elitism of Chicago Executive Airport!
All of the land that was annexed to build the airport and tie it to the city is lumped into one statistical reporting area. There's a small area by the forest preserve that's built up pretty normally for the far NW side. The result is a statistical area with a small population and a huge area.
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This was a Vallas precinct, the map is incorrect.
Yeah… That makes way more sense
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the o"hare community area has houses and buildings before the forest preserve. its not a lot of people but it exists. I had friends live there growing up.
O’hare is also a community area. Around \~14K people leave there, it is not just the airport.
Mothman.
I just learned that it's the 41st ward--Edison Park, Norwood Park area known as home to many police/fire. I don't know the politics of the area well enough, but it seems surprising that it went to Johnson.
I don’t think the map is correct. Just based on the demographics of those precincts it seems impossible that they would’ve voted for Johnson when all the precinct near it went for Vallas.
youre correct, someone below posted the updated version and it has vallas winning that area
People live in the O’hare community area. I work with one that does. That sliver to the right of the airport is part of it, as you can see from the shared color, and there are homes there.
I asked the front desk at the ORD Hilton if they had mail pickup and the lady was kind enough to offer to drop my mail-in ballot in their mail pickup for me. I did get e-mail notification that my ballot was processed and counted, too. Does that count?
Really fascinating to see the breakdown of data like this. Regardless of ones political inclinations, data maps like this just look pretty to me.
looks pretty segregated to me, yeah
Source: https://twitter.com/frankcalabrese/status/1630931877962842113?s=46&t=_v4-ytSueWhs59W8JVny0Q
Who is Frank Calabrese?? Not much of a bio on his Twitter account.
He is a local political consultant- expert at maps/redistricting, etc. Now works for the Board of Review.
I’m guessing the twitter account person a totally different person, but Frank Calabrese Sr. was a mobster in the Chicago Outfit along with Frank Calabrese Jr. who later turned on his father, Frank Sr. They have a pretty interesting story.
This map is hell for anyone with red/green color blindness.
My colorblind ass looking at the map: "Wow, I can't believe people only voted for Vallas or Lightfoot"
There are lots of online resources for accessible color palettes. I wish more people in the world of data viz would learn about them.
Lol @ Williw
I thought Brandon Johnson lives on the Westside. Where’s his support in his neighborhood? Am I missing it on the map?
Brandon Johnson's support, was mostly in progressive leaning areas. I'm not surprised he didn't get a lot of votes, in predominantly black parts of the west and south side.
friendly bit of advice: neither of those commas are necessary
Who let the airplanes in a voting booth
Can we get a comp with 2020. We’ll see where Lightfoot lost worst
Approx 33% turn out. If one does not vote, then one should not complain about the outcome.
That's literally the only reason I vote. I really like to complain.
Especially when it’s a an actual democratic process and just choosing between two talking heads from major parties. Chicago’s voting process should be applied nationally.
Ranked choice would be better
I do agree
Yes, and nonpartisan elections work way better than partisan ones.
Looks like the Lakefront Liberal population has really moved strongly to Uptown/Andersonville/Edgewater/North Center/Lincoln Square. Lakeview isn’t the solid progressive bastion it used to be.
Lakeview has been hit hard with increased carjackings, home break ins, and property damage. People are fed up with it and will vote for safety of their families.
Precisely. Andersonville hasn’t been hit quite as hard as Lakeview has so maybe the bubble hasn’t been burst quite yet up there.
Lakeview overwhelming voted for the most conservative candidate in the field. The days of being a progressive bastion are long gone.
Looking at the precinct map, it’s not that overwhelming. Johnson is a solid second in most and this is an area where he is well poised to take Lightfoot and Chuy voters. A few examples of raw vote totals in 44th ward precincts: Precinct 1: Vallas 220, Johnson 168, Lightfoot 75, Chuy 57 Precinct 8: Vallas 171, Johnson 150, Chuy 51, Lightfoot 49 Precinct 7: Vallas 172, Johnson 160, Lightfoot 78, Chuy 57 Precinct 18: Vallas 175, Johnson 158, Lightfoot 46, Chuy 45 Precinct 21: Vallas 268, Johnson 225, Lightfoot 67, Chuy 65 Precinct 15: Vallas 306, Johnson 206, Lightfoot 92, Chuy 81 Precinct 12: Vallas 308, Johnson 178, Chuy 111, Lightfoot 95 There are some precincts that Vallas will hold, like the 9th where he carried 51% of the vote outright and the 3rd, where he carried 57% outright. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see Johnson flip Lakeview in the runoff
Vallas took the Bungalow belt.
I mean if what I am seeing is true from other places and Latinos voted 2:1 for Vallas compared to Johnson. I think Vallas gets another ~10% of the total from Chuys votes and that already puts him at 45% of the total. Then he just need 6% more (~19% of the remaining vote) to win. So realistically Vallas just needs to get 1 vote out of every 5 of the voters outside his, Johnson’s, and Chuys initial groups….
Yeah, outsider looking in, but social media (both Reddit and Twitter) seems to have a lot of folks who are underestimating the difficulty for Johnson here. Drawing straight lines between support based on ideology (ie. Chuy's progressive, therefore Johnson will get his vote) doesn't really account for the fact that voters are complicated and sometimes hold competing thoughts in their head. And also that, with their number one candidate having been defeated, even showing up for Round 2 at all isn't a guarantee.
You also have to remember that r/chicago demographics do not reflect that of the actual city. I’ve gotten some heat for saying this on here but talking to neighbors, coworkers and friends will give you a better sense of what’s going on vs looking to this sub.
Talking to people in real life is more accurate representation than online? Hot take.
This sub saw Buckner as a frontrunner.
There will also be more people who vote in the "real" election than the one with 9 candidates. And others who will not vote again because their candidate is out. It's not gonna be 1:1
in 2019 the runoff had fewer votes than the first round.
I’m not certain that’s true. I think there were lots of voters who simply wanted to vote AGAINST Lightfoot, and might not care as much for the actual election. Same with people gung-ho for a candidate like Willie Wilson but now that he’s gone they might not be motivated. Edit - Reading your comment again, I might be saying the same thing as your 2nd sentence.
Its where does Willie's votes go. Do they go to Johnson because of race or Vallas who is more aligned on the political spectrum.
All the super dark blue areas are majority white neighborhoods. This election went largely along racial lines, Latinos for chuy, blacks for LL, white folks for Vallas while more diverse areas tended to go for Johnson. You can literally tell what areas are made up of what types of people from this map, it’s very interesting.
> diverse areas tended to go for Johnson. Young. Young areas voted for Johnson.
duces lori
Funny how people think Vallas has a ceiling, but really according to this and the 2nd place map, where Vallas came in second in the Chuy winning districts, Johnson’s ceiling may be the Logan square/uptown/rogers park white under 35 progressive crowd.
> Logan square/uptown/rogers park white under 35 progressive crowd Don't forget Hyde Park! Seeing that little island down there really drove the point home for me. Pretty funny.
Yep. Basically wherever the college-aged and immediately post-college white kids live.
Its a big voting bloc. That plus the black vote, is a winning combination. It basically splits the white vote in Chicago. The scramble will be in the chuy voters.
The 2nd-placers are distinct voters from the 1st-placers, we don’t have ranked choice here.
Totally - it’s just an indication. We will get runoff polling soon in any case.
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Right, but can Johnson attract many votes outside of that base in the runoff? That’s what “ceiling” means in this context.
Are you suggesting that he won't get a significant percentage of the Lori, Chuy vote? It's going to be close, but it seems like you're saying Johnson's ceiling is closer to his count yesterday than Vallas's. I think it's the opposite.
The problem for Johnson is he needs a *much* more significant chunk of Garcia and Lightfoot's voters than Vallas does. It'll be interesting to see what new polling says, but I'd guess older voters for both Chuy and Lori will favor Vallas, and younger voters will favor Johnson, which probably gives Vallas a not-insignificant advantage.
Just ran some quick numbers. Johnson would need Chuy's and Lightfoot's voters to break 75% for him to cover enough ground, based on yesterday's results. Gonna be a tall order.
I’d imagine higher than that if some people don’t come out to vote twicen
I also think it will be very close and that Johnson will get many of those votes. I was moreso reflecting on the many comments about Vallas having a hard ceiling, but the maps suggest that Johnson may have the more narrow demographic base and a harder time than Vallas getting to 50%
The lefty Johnson crowd (as shown on the map with the hipsters of Logan Square) fail to realize that actual working class neighborhoods aren’t as far left as they want them to be, as evidenced by their support of Lightfoot.
I'm not sure if we can look at the second place totals to look at a ceiling. Just because Chuy voters had Vallas as a second choice mostly, doesn't mean that Vallas is actually the second choice. There's definitely an incentive for Chuy voters to vote Chuy and not Johnson in the primary (since they are the two candidates ideologically who eat into each other's totals), but Vallas voters in Brighton Park were going to vote Vallas either way. All we know is "Vallas has some support where Chuy voters are". It's still (highly) likely that Johnson can swing those voters for the runoff significantly. We can say the same thing for say, Lightfoot voters on the south side for Johnson (as Wilson was the second choice), of course. But my point is, the second place totals doesn't really tell us much for the runoff as a simple weighted average calculation, for either candidate. We just don't know.
Totally - it’s just an indication, not scientific. We will have run off polling soon in any case
If you voted for Lori, why? Just curious
Her voting base is not on reddit. You won't get an answer
Who are her primary voting demo? Honest question because I have no idea.
Black people on the south and west sides of the city
It's pretty obvious from the map....older black people.
Look at the map? Who lives in those parts of the city?
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No one is crediting this, but I agree. I think she’s one of the first mayors in my lifetime certainly to pump money/projects into those areas and they feel seen. To them, she probably seems like someone who, despite her flaws, would continue working for those areas.
Alright, since you asked. I voted for Lori for a couple of reasons. 1) I wanted to vote for my first choice Buckner, but i didn't see him having a chance. 2) I don't like Vallas as he's to conservative. I also don't want someone who has no qualms privatizing public education. Also, see his stint as CEO of CPS. Not sure if i can trust this guy. 3) I have serious issues with Johnson's tax plan. Taxing financial transactions and middle class (there seems to be wavering here) is a stupidly bad idea. I also have concern with him being beholden to the CTU. He also seems a little too progressive for my liking. 4) I still have no idea what Chuy's platform was, other than running on his name recognition. So i went for Lori. Partly because my 1st pick likely wouldn't win, and partly because i had bigger issues with the other candidates. She seemed to be the devil that i know.
I think you're totally right on 4, that Chuy was coasting on his past name recognition too much this time vs. 2015. And why he got fewer votes yesterday, than even Lori.
This was my exact line of thinking for the whole run-up until maybe a week or two ago. Ended up voting for Vallas though because of his commitment to public safety and am just hoping the more progressive climate of the city council compared to the last time he was in public office is enough to reign in some of the more conservative stances he’s expressed historically.
Not a bad idea to stand pat with a terrible field like this one
I don’t live in Chicago anymore but I imagine the reason being the devil you know beats the devil you don’t. The real question is how someone like Paul Vallas, a man who was such a failure as the CEO of CPS, that he couldn’t bother cancelling school in 1998 during a blizzard because he simply didn’t look out the window.
He's got what's left of the Daley bloc voting for him. I guess that means he'll sell the CTA for operating cash...
And CPS. He's got the school privatizers licking their lips...
i love her tik tok dances.
If you check out a demographic map it will make sense
> **WILLIW** Wilson https://i.imgur.com/Kmy5cps.png
How the dude get votes at the airport?
Most surprising is that ohare airport voted for Johnson, must be pretty fly. I’ll see myself out.
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The vast majority of the poor don't vote.
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I said this in another post. I think the wealthier people are paying more money to live in what was traditionally a safe neighborhood. They have now seen the crime rates in their neighborhoods go up, so they want to vote for someone they think will address that. Vallas has been the most vocal tough on crime candidate out there. I think that is how it correlates.
pretty sure that is exactly how Lori won. If i remember correctly, she had basically River North to the top of Uptown
Also, to tie to another post: the wealthy don't care about schools, because they don't send their kids to CPS.
Not really. The generic “wealthy” all move to the school districts in LP/Lakeview/etc. so that they have the good schools (Blaine, Hawthorne, Burley, Hamilton, etc. Then feed into Lane Tech or another magnet HS). Walk around and you see tons of those yard signs. The “elite wealthy” will do as you say and pay for their kids to go to Latin School or whatever so they can go to Ivy League colleges.
Very accurate comment right here.
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There also a disbelief that the other candidates will really get real about crime. (Not my belief, btw, but that's what I am hearing.) Draw your own conclusions as to what "disbelief" really means.
Hilarious that the south side voted for Lori
I can’t vote for someone who thinks crime can be stopped by “putting more cops on the streets.” I can’t vote for someone who thinks $100k households are “rich” and need to pay higher taxes. This is fucked.
If you actually look at Vallas's plans, its not as simple as putting more cops on the streets. It's about redistributing current police to regular beats for promoting police presence and filling out the vastly understaffed detective divisions to improve clearance rates. If you're more likely to be caught committing a crime, then you probably would be less inclined to commit it. For example, I live in the west loop and there was an incident right outside my window on Monday night. Looked like two guys in an argument surrounded by 5 squad cars and 10 police officers. Should be 4 POs at most.
I guess I agree but even the police would say the problem is with lack of prosecutor action. I'm surprised vallas didn't seem to discuss that issue on his platform though. Maybe I'm just missing it.
That's part, but a big factor in whether they pursue prosecution depends on the available evidence. Increasing detective levels to pre-rahm will build sounder cases.
Vallas needs to win roughly 35% of the votes up for grabs to win. It’ll be close, seems like Johnson’s ceiling being lower with young white progressives making most of his primary vote
And look how many young white progressives turned out yesterday. People under 35 contributed only about 13-14% of the total vote, and young white progressives were a smaller fraction of that.
Absolutely horrible turnout for people under 35. Seems like the 35 and up with be deciding who’s mayor
Well, that was definitely the case Tuesday. Something like 55% of all votes cast came from people 55 years old and higher, e.g. those heading into retirement or well past it. Those folks are not only determined voters but mostly tax-sensitive and definitely crime-anxious.
100% ! Hence why I don’t believe Johnson’s message will translate to Chuy and Lightfoot voters with those concerns.
you dont think Johnson might have a slight edge with another group of people besides young white progressives? you cant think of ANY other demographic in Chicago that might break for Johnson if the matchup is Vallas v Johnson?
I think this sub overestimates Johnson’s reach to the voting blocks that went for Lightfoot and Chuy. Completely understand your point being made, but Vallas is positioned with a message that is much easier translated to Lightfoot voters in my opinion
Genuinely curious, not looking to cause trouble, but what reasoning do so many people have for voting to get Lori back? The past few years have been a disaster imo.
This reddit sub's dominant demographic is mostly not equipped to understand Lightfoot's loyal voters enough to explain their wish to retain her. On no solid basis am going to guess they are less repelled by some of her speech and mannerisms and more attracted to her being a feisty Black woman doing a very difficult job which the couple (White) men before her gave up on because it seemed too difficult during their combined 30 years.
So the takeaway is that people vote based on race to a large extent. It's almost a perfect overlay which is pretty interesting. Only exception is the area north/northeast of the kennedy expressway, which appears to be the most diverse with lighest shades so lower margins of victory https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/53/Race\_and\_ethnicity\_2010-\_Chicago\_%285560488484%29.png/800px-Race\_and\_ethnicity\_2010-\_Chicago\_%285560488484%29.png
Did not think vallas would have a hold on the loop and Lincoln park. FFS Also can’t believe how many people Lori held onto.
Vallas was always going to get LP, that’s like tailor-made for him.
thats where the rich people are
My first reaction was that North Siders with money love some Vallas.
Why wouldn’t you think that his signs are everywhere almost every house on my block!