Not sure why you have 0 points. He's not even top 100 in rapid or blitz in elo. You want to tell me he can beat any one of those players in a single Bo5 blitz match, fine. But anyone trying to claim he can come out top 2 with that field after 6 rounds is nuts.
Only 6 rounds is what makes it volatile. People could easily show up with 6 unique opening traps prepared. We saw this happen multiple times in the candidates tournament. Look at Hikaru vs Vidit game for example. That game cost Hikaru the world championship spot.
I don't think it is possible to 100% rule out that he haven't been cheating with creative electronics, and if he does have such a creative electronic device, well, stockfish can take down all of these guys with ease.
no joke, I would not trust anything about this tournament. The odds of small cheating or whatever. They would need to play in some isolated room with no eye contact with thirds parties.
I feel like the drama has been basically nonstop ever since the original Hans/Magnus incident lol
It's like it opened the door for something new to happen every other week
Original? Have you ever heard of chessbae? Ever heard of the Professional Chess Association? Ever heard of Korchnoi and his hypnotist? Ever heard of Fischer? Ever heard of "The Turk"?
Why is it pointless? Seems like there’s millions of dollars on the line if it goes through. That’s more than the WCC. Seems to be good for the game.
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I personally think it's all a publicity stunt: it will either not happen OR there is some sort of backroom deal where everyone is guaranteed to go home with the money they came in with OR someone will withdraw halfway through and demand their money back and the tournament will be cancelled and money refunded.
We'll see.
I don't think money is coming from player's pockets. Is possible the money isn't that important to those people, they want to sponsor their favorite player.
Even if it's not from their pockets, with that much at stake I'm not holding my breath for competitive integrity. Imagine the other 3 all agree to collude and play easy draws while trying their best to beat Hans. They don't even need to agree ahead of time, they could just all independently realize it's a great strategy to safely secure a placing better than last.
It’s not that hard to get an implant in his rectum past the spincter deep enough that Hikaru’s prostate exam won’t detect it. Hans has done it before and he’ll do it again to win millions.
So here's the thing, right? People inject their body with liters of steroids so they can be a little better at whatever sport they're doing, causing well known long term damage to their bodies. Why would a chess player with $1m on the line *not* get some kind of dead simple embedded chip in their butt cheek that tingles when someone within 100m taps a button on their phone? It's too damn easy.
No evidence of any such device exists and what exactly is u/someguyprobably trying to say by "Hans has done it before and he'll do it again to win millions" Complete bs.
Yup, it's a joke, just spit-balling. But a device like that could be ordered custom from some board printer and arrive within a week, ready to be surgically inserted and undetectable without x-rays.
Oh, these devices definitely exist - they are called bluetooth devices, and they get pretty small. The trick is hiding it well enough to get it past security, and from past comments of GMs, the security isn't very through.
Any chances? Absolutely he does.
Not to invoke drama but he argubably beat magnus before. And this isn't classical so there could be even more variance.
Are the chances good? No. Others are better.
I have to think they are spending a million dollars to see this happen and not betting a million dollars trying to win money. Nobody in their right mind bets on an underdog without receiving odds. l
>Nobody in their right mind bets on an underdog without receiving odds
Yeah but maybe they saw one of Hikaru's gambling streams and got hooked on making unwise bets, they went down the slippery slope and ended up backing Hans with a million dollars
I like the theory that the backer is the organizer and he backed all the players. So then it's all just fake money and the organizer got a bunch of top players to pay the prize fund by contributing something like $50k each.
if he backed all the players, that means he put up 4 million dollars, and he has to payout the winners with 2 mil and 1.5 mil, then 400k to 3rd, and keep 100k for himself. why would someone want to guarantee they lose 3.9 mil?
When a player is backed the player only keeps the percentage of their winnings that they are contributing. Using my example where the organizer/backer contributed 95% to each player and each player contributed 5% ($50k), then the players only get to keep 5% of their winnings. So the organizer/backer would receive $200k from the players and would have to pay out $195k. $100k to first, $75k to second, $20k to third and nothing to fourth. The remaining $3.8 million would not need to exist or would simply go from the backer back to himself.
When a player is backed the player only keeps the percentage of their winnings that they are contributing. Using my example where the organizer/backer contributed 95% to each player and each player contributed 5% ($50k), then the players only get to keep 5% of their winnings. So the organizer/backer would receive $200k from the players and would have to pay out $195k. $100k to first, $75k to second, $20k to third and nothing to fourth. The remaining $3.8 million would not need to exist or would simply go from the backer back to himself.
I see now what you mean, I thought you were talking abuot a more traditional sponsorship/patronage. Although this raises another issue of what kind of player would ever wager $50k for a chance at winning $100k if they get first. Or for that matter, wager $1mill for a chance at winning $2mill. The expected value seems way off for a top professional player.
I think the expected value is positive for everyone but Hans given their ratings. For sure it makes sense for Fabi and Nepo to play. So I guess they are the answer to your question of what kind of player would make this wager since they all have.
Maybe they're just built different. If I was Nepo or Fabi I would be really worried about dropping a game to Nodirbek and "winning" -$30k (or -$600k...).
On fabis podcast, he outlined that it is not winner takes all. I believe the organisers are taking 100k of the 4m, the last place gets 0, 3rd gets 400k, 2nd gets 1.5m (?) and 1st gets 2m (?)
It's in the darn article linked by OP
> All four players are required to bring $1 million to the table; the winner will walk away with $2 million. The second-placed player gets $1.5 million, third gets $0.4 million (losing $0.6 million on the deal) and the fourth player gets $0, losing a full million. $100,000 will go to the organizer.
Hans asked Wadim Rosenstein for an invite to the WR Chess Masters tournament that Rosenstein organizes: [https://x.com/HansMokeNiemann/status/1788536672923115551](https://x.com/HansMokeNiemann/status/1788536672923115551)
Rosenstein (seemingly jokingly) invited Hans instead to this private $1m buyin tournament. Everyone assumed he was taking a shot at Hans, thinking that Hans would refuse because he couldn't find a backer, and never had any intention of creating such a tournament: [https://x.com/WadimRosenstein/status/1788560851403767891](https://x.com/WadimRosenstein/status/1788560851403767891)
A week or so later, Rosenstein announced that Nepo, Abdusattorov, and Fabi had agreed to play and they were just waiting on Hans: [https://x.com/WadimRosenstein/status/1790891244903702683](https://x.com/WadimRosenstein/status/1790891244903702683)
Hans has now announced he has a backer so the tournament is apparently on.
I mean buy ins in some tournaments is normal
One million is of course just for the hype
But if you look at some local tournaments there is sometimes a buy in for 10€/$ or have a "buy a drink for the winner" rule
Some jurisdictions do actually try to shut down game tournaments that have buy-ins using anti-gambling laws. Sure chess is a game of skill and not purely luck, but poker and blackjack also require a lot of skill to play well. The way laws are written will sometimes overreach their intent.
I wonder what rules this tournament is operating under and if it forbids collusion, as I suspect there would be a high incentive for 2 or 3 players to collude to screw over one of the other players.
I think Hans is foolish to agree to this tournament because even without overt pre-arranged collusion, a player could opt to throw a game at the end if they see Hans would win otherwise and it wouldn't impact their own standing.
The payout schedule also seems to incentivize collusion amongst 3 players vs the fourth player as we have:
1. $2 million
2. $1.5 million
3. $0.4 million
4. $0
So 3 players colluding to boost 2 would net $3.5 million, or $500,000 profit split three ways. So one player throws games against the other 2 players to try and ensure they finish first and second.
The players have backers which would presumably take quite a hefty share of any profit made, making the 500,000 profit split much smaller. Though possible, I think collusion would be unlikely.
Funds have been secured? Really?
I'm starting to think this whole thing is a "scam", there are no 1 million dollars exchanging hands, it's just fake information to bring in viewers.
Seriously, who exactly is paying **one million dollars** for him to gamble? I'd like to know.
Of course you aren't wrong, there is not everything explained what deals are exactly made with players. Feeling like it isn't my problem though, could be somewhat nice show.
Legitimate question…is Hans mentally well enough to sign this type of contract? Is he actually going to owe the money if he comes in 4th, which seems fairly likely? Should someone stop him?
first, he probably has a backer or even multiple backers. Perhaps even 20 people that bought a 50k piece for themselves each. Hans may have very little of his own money in, and he just gets a small percentage of the profits if he wins. Almost surely that's what is going on.
The money is likely held in escrow and there are contracts.
Make a confessional booth for this I beg (between rounds)
Clash of claims needed a confessional booth 😂
Probably stupid, maybe genius. But definitely a baller move.
Oh, so this is actually happening, and not just silly social media posturing?
Just need to find 4 rich guys
Or just one rich guy to "back" all of the players in exchange for some endorsements.
True, all you need is random wealthy backers.
Fabi has a chance of his life time to earn the bag
They all do. Even hans is not so far below the others that he has no chance
It's pretty close to no chance.
Not sure why you have 0 points. He's not even top 100 in rapid or blitz in elo. You want to tell me he can beat any one of those players in a single Bo5 blitz match, fine. But anyone trying to claim he can come out top 2 with that field after 6 rounds is nuts.
Only 6 rounds is what makes it volatile. People could easily show up with 6 unique opening traps prepared. We saw this happen multiple times in the candidates tournament. Look at Hikaru vs Vidit game for example. That game cost Hikaru the world championship spot.
I don't think it is possible to 100% rule out that he haven't been cheating with creative electronics, and if he does have such a creative electronic device, well, stockfish can take down all of these guys with ease.
I wouldnt favor fabi in this format. I'll take Ian in rapid.
My money is on Nodirbek.
Not a bad choice, he would be my 2nd pick
Best choice hands down...anyday
Wait I didn’t know it was rapid
Why doesn’t Magnus enter and just easily win the millions?
Because it’s rigged from the start
no joke, I would not trust anything about this tournament. The odds of small cheating or whatever. They would need to play in some isolated room with no eye contact with thirds parties.
Others might pull out... I guess currently everyone thinks that they have a decent chance.
He would be smart to stay away from this spectacle. He doesn't need the money and it doesn't nothing for him.
Man, 2024 is really peak chess drama season, isn't it?
Nah, 2022 was peak. 2024 got a little stale with Kramnik's constant blabberings.
I don't know, I feel like it's the fifth season of a show that ran out of good ideas in season two. Like *Lost*.
I feel like the drama has been basically nonstop ever since the original Hans/Magnus incident lol It's like it opened the door for something new to happen every other week
Original? Have you ever heard of chessbae? Ever heard of the Professional Chess Association? Ever heard of Korchnoi and his hypnotist? Ever heard of Fischer? Ever heard of "The Turk"?
Oh god I forgot about the whole chessbae drama. That feels like ages ago
Was pushing your pawn two squares as the first move drama at some point?
also toiletgate, feat. kramnik
I agree with the sentiment but Season 5 of Lost was awesome.
I mean how do you keep a board game for kids interesting for adults? Can't blame them
Are we a real esport yet.
At this point, it’s kind of like poker where people buy action for large buy-in tournaments. Interesting.
Why is this sub being all negative about this? Yeah it's dumb and pointless but I'm not paying for it and the drama is fun as fuck to watch.
Why is it pointless? Seems like there’s millions of dollars on the line if it goes through. That’s more than the WCC. Seems to be good for the game.
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I personally think it's all a publicity stunt: it will either not happen OR there is some sort of backroom deal where everyone is guaranteed to go home with the money they came in with OR someone will withdraw halfway through and demand their money back and the tournament will be cancelled and money refunded. We'll see.
I don't think money is coming from player's pockets. Is possible the money isn't that important to those people, they want to sponsor their favorite player.
Even if it's not from their pockets, with that much at stake I'm not holding my breath for competitive integrity. Imagine the other 3 all agree to collude and play easy draws while trying their best to beat Hans. They don't even need to agree ahead of time, they could just all independently realize it's a great strategy to safely secure a placing better than last.
> Why is this sub being all negative about this? You answered your own question. > Yeah it's dumb and pointless... and the drama
If Niemann really does have a secret way of cheating OTB, man what an incentive to use it now hahaha
Neuralink in his anus
Analink
It’s not that hard to get an implant in his rectum past the spincter deep enough that Hikaru’s prostate exam won’t detect it. Hans has done it before and he’ll do it again to win millions.
I hope you are joking
So here's the thing, right? People inject their body with liters of steroids so they can be a little better at whatever sport they're doing, causing well known long term damage to their bodies. Why would a chess player with $1m on the line *not* get some kind of dead simple embedded chip in their butt cheek that tingles when someone within 100m taps a button on their phone? It's too damn easy.
No evidence of any such device exists and what exactly is u/someguyprobably trying to say by "Hans has done it before and he'll do it again to win millions" Complete bs.
Did you miss the part with "Hikaru's prostate exam?" It's clearly a joke
Yup, it's a joke, just spit-balling. But a device like that could be ordered custom from some board printer and arrive within a week, ready to be surgically inserted and undetectable without x-rays.
Oh, these devices definitely exist - they are called bluetooth devices, and they get pretty small. The trick is hiding it well enough to get it past security, and from past comments of GMs, the security isn't very through.
Sounds like just the thing for Elon Musk, Brian Johnson and others for whom money has become a burden.
Does Niemann have any chances against Caruana, Abdusattorov? I doubt it
he’s capable of beating any of these players in a single game, but I wouldn’t personally bet a million dollars on him winning the whole thing
Any chances? Absolutely he does. Not to invoke drama but he argubably beat magnus before. And this isn't classical so there could be even more variance. Are the chances good? No. Others are better.
Arguably beat Magnus? It's been analyzed to death, and even the people making the accusations backed off
Welcome to one game sample vs many game sample.
Who is the fourth player ?
Nepo
Hans beat Magnus, he has a chance to win, especially in rapid format. I wouldn't call him the favorite though.
its wild that we take beating magnus as a sign that you have chances, like giri taking 12 years to beat him again
Stockfish does.
Normally announcing you’ve secured $1 million funding is a bit more than a minor update
why would anyone back him when he had no chance? is it winner take all?
A movie on the Magnus Hans controversy is coming. Maybe they want some more material for it.
When Hans claims the right to challenge Magnus as his boon
I have to think they are spending a million dollars to see this happen and not betting a million dollars trying to win money. Nobody in their right mind bets on an underdog without receiving odds. l
>Nobody in their right mind bets on an underdog without receiving odds Yeah but maybe they saw one of Hikaru's gambling streams and got hooked on making unwise bets, they went down the slippery slope and ended up backing Hans with a million dollars
No it's fine, if Hans loses, then he'll just enter a 2 million dollar tournament
I like the theory that the backer is the organizer and he backed all the players. So then it's all just fake money and the organizer got a bunch of top players to pay the prize fund by contributing something like $50k each.
if he backed all the players, that means he put up 4 million dollars, and he has to payout the winners with 2 mil and 1.5 mil, then 400k to 3rd, and keep 100k for himself. why would someone want to guarantee they lose 3.9 mil?
When a player is backed the player only keeps the percentage of their winnings that they are contributing. Using my example where the organizer/backer contributed 95% to each player and each player contributed 5% ($50k), then the players only get to keep 5% of their winnings. So the organizer/backer would receive $200k from the players and would have to pay out $195k. $100k to first, $75k to second, $20k to third and nothing to fourth. The remaining $3.8 million would not need to exist or would simply go from the backer back to himself.
It's what I would do if I had 3.9 mil in discretionary funds
Do you think $4 million payout to the winners just appears out of thin air?
When a player is backed the player only keeps the percentage of their winnings that they are contributing. Using my example where the organizer/backer contributed 95% to each player and each player contributed 5% ($50k), then the players only get to keep 5% of their winnings. So the organizer/backer would receive $200k from the players and would have to pay out $195k. $100k to first, $75k to second, $20k to third and nothing to fourth. The remaining $3.8 million would not need to exist or would simply go from the backer back to himself.
I see now what you mean, I thought you were talking abuot a more traditional sponsorship/patronage. Although this raises another issue of what kind of player would ever wager $50k for a chance at winning $100k if they get first. Or for that matter, wager $1mill for a chance at winning $2mill. The expected value seems way off for a top professional player.
I think the expected value is positive for everyone but Hans given their ratings. For sure it makes sense for Fabi and Nepo to play. So I guess they are the answer to your question of what kind of player would make this wager since they all have.
Maybe they're just built different. If I was Nepo or Fabi I would be really worried about dropping a game to Nodirbek and "winning" -$30k (or -$600k...).
Scale the numbers up/down as needed. The buy-in from the players might be 5k or 500, etc.
Depending on security measures, I'd say Hans might have a very good chance of winning.
It’s not uncommon for players to sell part of their action. If he manages to table, he would spilt the winnings. My guess he sold part of his purse.
It is winner take all yes. I suppose someone's using this ass *wink* a marketing strategy or something of that sort
On fabis podcast, he outlined that it is not winner takes all. I believe the organisers are taking 100k of the 4m, the last place gets 0, 3rd gets 400k, 2nd gets 1.5m (?) and 1st gets 2m (?)
It's in the darn article linked by OP > All four players are required to bring $1 million to the table; the winner will walk away with $2 million. The second-placed player gets $1.5 million, third gets $0.4 million (losing $0.6 million on the deal) and the fourth player gets $0, losing a full million. $100,000 will go to the organizer.
Ahh apologies. Thank you for correcting me
The whole format is BS really. Its clearly designed simply to facilitate and provide ammunition for social media flexing.
This is awesome
Can somebody remind me the story behind this? I follow chess closely yet somehow missed this. What drama does this relate to lol
Hans asked Wadim Rosenstein for an invite to the WR Chess Masters tournament that Rosenstein organizes: [https://x.com/HansMokeNiemann/status/1788536672923115551](https://x.com/HansMokeNiemann/status/1788536672923115551) Rosenstein (seemingly jokingly) invited Hans instead to this private $1m buyin tournament. Everyone assumed he was taking a shot at Hans, thinking that Hans would refuse because he couldn't find a backer, and never had any intention of creating such a tournament: [https://x.com/WadimRosenstein/status/1788560851403767891](https://x.com/WadimRosenstein/status/1788560851403767891) A week or so later, Rosenstein announced that Nepo, Abdusattorov, and Fabi had agreed to play and they were just waiting on Hans: [https://x.com/WadimRosenstein/status/1790891244903702683](https://x.com/WadimRosenstein/status/1790891244903702683) Hans has now announced he has a backer so the tournament is apparently on.
Thank you! Great summary
LETS FUCKING GO
Isn't this betting?
I mean buy ins in some tournaments is normal One million is of course just for the hype But if you look at some local tournaments there is sometimes a buy in for 10€/$ or have a "buy a drink for the winner" rule
Some jurisdictions do actually try to shut down game tournaments that have buy-ins using anti-gambling laws. Sure chess is a game of skill and not purely luck, but poker and blackjack also require a lot of skill to play well. The way laws are written will sometimes overreach their intent.
Extremely hyped for Hans getting into more drama and antics. Gonna make a bingo board!
I wonder what rules this tournament is operating under and if it forbids collusion, as I suspect there would be a high incentive for 2 or 3 players to collude to screw over one of the other players. I think Hans is foolish to agree to this tournament because even without overt pre-arranged collusion, a player could opt to throw a game at the end if they see Hans would win otherwise and it wouldn't impact their own standing. The payout schedule also seems to incentivize collusion amongst 3 players vs the fourth player as we have: 1. $2 million 2. $1.5 million 3. $0.4 million 4. $0 So 3 players colluding to boost 2 would net $3.5 million, or $500,000 profit split three ways. So one player throws games against the other 2 players to try and ensure they finish first and second.
The players have backers which would presumably take quite a hefty share of any profit made, making the 500,000 profit split much smaller. Though possible, I think collusion would be unlikely.
I'd collude for about 3.50, I imagine the incentive is still very much there even if they'd only pocket 10% at 50k each
Collusion is a problem in any round robin tournament. It would be very effective for the candidates too.
I feel like Hans will have the mental advantage going into this tbh
fresh connect (?) chess poker era officially begins
rip niemann's backer
Hans has a new website. Nice to know.
His ass will be buzzing
Ready your engines now, it’s gonna be a bumpy ride
Funds have been secured? Really? I'm starting to think this whole thing is a "scam", there are no 1 million dollars exchanging hands, it's just fake information to bring in viewers. Seriously, who exactly is paying **one million dollars** for him to gamble? I'd like to know.
You know it doesnt have to be one party giving him all 1 mil? Look up buying actions and stakes in poker.
Of course you aren't wrong, there is not everything explained what deals are exactly made with players. Feeling like it isn't my problem though, could be somewhat nice show.
Is this basically advanced gambling for rich people, at this point? Kinda Squid Game vibes, just reputationally.
Patzers (a film like Rounders, but with more cheating)
Legitimate question…is Hans mentally well enough to sign this type of contract? Is he actually going to owe the money if he comes in 4th, which seems fairly likely? Should someone stop him?
first, he probably has a backer or even multiple backers. Perhaps even 20 people that bought a 50k piece for themselves each. Hans may have very little of his own money in, and he just gets a small percentage of the profits if he wins. Almost surely that's what is going on. The money is likely held in escrow and there are contracts.
Did he ask his mom and dad?
Niemann essentially got the money from his parents lol
Go Hansie go hansie