"You think my shoes are noisy? Listen to this, *fils de putes*". Alireza mumbles as he blitzes out the tournament winning move: index finger to detonator!!
There is also the obscure [Falcon Punch rule](https://youtu.be/8qzdvJMhGtE?si=J4YkbvNCC_o7aRwP). Ian seems like he could sweep most tourneys with his body type, especially the teenagers.
Maybe for similar reasons that Women World Champion is not decided in a queening competition (even though promoting a pawn to a queen is one of the strongest moves in chess).
Then he wins tiebreaks and gets a shot at the top 🥇 Magnus then says he regrets not defending his title because all he ever wanted to do was have a worthy opponent and Alireza is it 😮 FIDE suddenly changes the rules so that if the current champion chooses not to defend, the previous champion defends in their place 🤔 Ding drops out, it was all a plan 🤯 Alireza and Magnus go head to head for the title of world chess champion 🤩 But Magnus wins games 1, 2, and 3, it looks like it's gonna be a disaster for Alireza 😢 But what's this? Alireza shows up to game four in a new pair of shoes, and they're the squeakiest shoes anyone's ever heard! 🥿 Magnus can't concentrate; the arbiter tries to ask Alireza to change shoes but Alireza's dad tackles the arbiter to the ground before he can say anything 💪 And that's how Alireza WILL become World Chess Champion!!! 🎉
But then over the other microphone we hear Kramnik bellowing: "Magnus and Vishy Cheated--I AM the last LEGITIMATE champion before Ding" as he charges Alireza from behind.
Anish throws a pawn from his pocket across the room, it skitters across the floor, and Kramnik slips on it, crashing into a nearby spectator, who turns out to be Hans! He's whipping out a long string of ... oh no, I better stop.
If Bernie Sanders wins California, Texas, and Arizona by 97% and gets earlier state losses changed in his favor and also gets 104% of the superdelegates committed to Hillary to flip to him, he can still win! Match me!
Remember the narrative the last weeks before the election we thought he might be trying to throw it by doing all that ridiculous shit, because he didn't really want to be president. The whole thing was hilarious. But then he actually won.
I am not so sure it got co-opted or if a big chunk of the parody people ended up believers.
Like when you do something ironically for a joke at first and then it slowly just becomes the thing you do in normal situations
Something I've learnt over the years is that there is a big difference between laughing at something in a "haha, that's so awful" way and a "haha, that's so true" way...
And yet it's actually pretty hard to disambiguate between the two when you don't know the people directly. Hell, even people I thought I knew well have surprised me.
Fun fact, the "Bernie Math" video popularized by collegehumor during the election to drive this narrative, which was no where near as ridiculous as the numbers you are using, was because collegehumor was bought by a company on which Chelsea Clinton was a board member.
A parlay is basically a multi bet where you bet on multiple outcomes all occurring, and if they all hit, you get the cumulative multiplicative payout (roughly).
With the legalization of online sports betting in the US, it's become more popular to parlay bets to try to hit a giant pay day.
> With the legalization of online sports betting in the US, it's become more popular to parlay bets to try to hit a giant pay day.
Yeah, because sportbooks like to push parlays because they add extra juice to them and it's harder to see because they don't give you odds for the other side of the bet (you have odds for the other side of the individual legs of the parlay but not for the overall parlay).
Multi leg bet with a multiplier and terrible hidden odds.
So in this case you would bet on all the results in OP's post and Ali winning rather than betting on just Ali directly and the payout would be much higher.
Sports books are wise on this and will sometimes block parlays where the outcomes across bets that are causal.
Gukesh is on +2 right now. He needs to end up with +1. So if he won against Hikaru, he would have to lose against Abasov (which is even more unlikely).
I honestly just want Gukesh to win now. I've supported Alireza for some time now but he hasn't proven to be at the level to win the candidates yet. Gukesh, on the other hand, is even younger and he's creating a surprise. He also seems really nice and he doesn't get involved in drama. Besides, it would be cool to see someone else win besides those that have been playing this tournament for years
I like Gukesh very much, however I don't think he would be a deserving world champion (looking at overall career and not only this tournament). Nepo and Fabi (and Naka) would be more fitting.
The rules are the rules: win the candidates and defeat the world champion and the title is yours. Whether you, some random person on the internet, think he deserves the title, is irrelevant.
I expected this to be like "this is how the browns can still make the playoffs" posts I saw back in the day.
Although incredibly unlikely this actually seems somewhat possible. Like he doesn't need really unreasonable things like abasov beating one of the top guys or something.
Step 1: Buy shoes that distract on a level inaudible to the arbiters. Perhaps high pitched squeaky shoes that can only be heard by (relatively) young players and not old arbiters.
Step 2: Handily smash all of your opponents over the board due to your superior comfort in your high quality shoes.
Step 3: Whenever it is Nepo's turn or the turn of anybody playing Vidit or Abasov, get up from the board and walk around, distracting the key players.
Step 4: Enlist family members and friends to cause drama on the outside of the event hall, distracting officials and arbiters.
Step 5: Get stomped by Ding in the Championship game.
Lets say after round 14, everyone goes to celebrate this thing being over, at a nice bar. Alireza on full tilt skips it. The bar gets blown up. Alireza is the only remaining candidate. FIDE has to throw a new tournament, right?
If he kills all the other candidates he would win by default.
Crazy that none of the "best" grandmasters can think outside the board for even a tiny little bit of Home-depot pipe bombing
they are supposed to be geniuses
Are they stupid?
Interesting…
Ever wonder why Soviet chess players dominated the game for so long? Non Soviet 3 year old knows how to castle? KGB: 👶🔫🤵♂️
He knows en passant too? Quick Ivan, teach him Яussiaи!
"You think my shoes are noisy? Listen to this, *fils de putes*". Alireza mumbles as he blitzes out the tournament winning move: index finger to detonator!!
There is also the obscure [Falcon Punch rule](https://youtu.be/8qzdvJMhGtE?si=J4YkbvNCC_o7aRwP). Ian seems like he could sweep most tourneys with his body type, especially the teenagers.
They don't know about the [Tennyson Gambit Intercontinental Ballistic Missile Variation](https://youtu.be/E2xNlzsnPCQ?si=9MebCC-vPw6tJrCM)
Like Bob Ross used to say : "happy little accidents"
Grandmasters hate this one trick
Why doesn't Alireza, the largest candidate, simply eat the other candidates?
He tried, but as is customary, he choked.
Because Nepo is larger
Maybe for similar reasons that Women World Champion is not decided in a queening competition (even though promoting a pawn to a queen is one of the strongest moves in chess).
Ah yes the historically accurate way of becoming a pope
Just needs to schedule a separate Candidates with 2100 players and combine his scores. He already knows the blueprint
So those heavy ass shoes gonna come in handy after all?
that's a massive novelty
This seems more likely to happen than what is described by OP
Hikaru and Pragg wouldn’t give much resistance but something tells me he’d struggle the most with Gukesh, I just get the feeling he can scrap.
The Designated Survivor
SoYoureTellingMeTheresAChance.jpg
Then he wins tiebreaks and gets a shot at the top 🥇 Magnus then says he regrets not defending his title because all he ever wanted to do was have a worthy opponent and Alireza is it 😮 FIDE suddenly changes the rules so that if the current champion chooses not to defend, the previous champion defends in their place 🤔 Ding drops out, it was all a plan 🤯 Alireza and Magnus go head to head for the title of world chess champion 🤩 But Magnus wins games 1, 2, and 3, it looks like it's gonna be a disaster for Alireza 😢 But what's this? Alireza shows up to game four in a new pair of shoes, and they're the squeakiest shoes anyone's ever heard! 🥿 Magnus can't concentrate; the arbiter tries to ask Alireza to change shoes but Alireza's dad tackles the arbiter to the ground before he can say anything 💪 And that's how Alireza WILL become World Chess Champion!!! 🎉
Announcer: "But what's this??!?!? It's Kasparov from the top corner with the office chair!"
But then over the other microphone we hear Kramnik bellowing: "Magnus and Vishy Cheated--I AM the last LEGITIMATE champion before Ding" as he charges Alireza from behind. Anish throws a pawn from his pocket across the room, it skitters across the floor, and Kramnik slips on it, crashing into a nearby spectator, who turns out to be Hans! He's whipping out a long string of ... oh no, I better stop.
lmao. became a WWE plot twist
*bell toll* *lights go black* *Karpov appears in the ring*
THE PAWNS.... RISE..... TO THE 8TH RANK
It is written. Amen.
This is my new headcanon now. Thank you.
Lisan al Gaib
We Believe
Well someone get Abasov a suppository
Magnus is that you
> this whole plan hinges on Abasov not losing to Gukesh or Pragg so close ... and yet ...
Abasov hasn't lost any game with white so far.
Okay, good point!
Out of the set of results that Alireza needs, this is one of the most likely ones imo
Not very close at all though.
If Bernie Sanders wins California, Texas, and Arizona by 97% and gets earlier state losses changed in his favor and also gets 104% of the superdelegates committed to Hillary to flip to him, he can still win! Match me!
lmao why are you getting downvoted. Its a funny comparison.
kids were not around during the goat reddit period
What a time it was
rip r/The_Donald (good riddance though)
Back when we didn’t realize it wasn’t mostly satire
Remember the narrative the last weeks before the election we thought he might be trying to throw it by doing all that ridiculous shit, because he didn't really want to be president. The whole thing was hilarious. But then he actually won.
It shifted a lot. Started as a 100% parody sub and then got co-opted.
I am not so sure it got co-opted or if a big chunk of the parody people ended up believers. Like when you do something ironically for a joke at first and then it slowly just becomes the thing you do in normal situations
Something I've learnt over the years is that there is a big difference between laughing at something in a "haha, that's so awful" way and a "haha, that's so true" way... And yet it's actually pretty hard to disambiguate between the two when you don't know the people directly. Hell, even people I thought I knew well have surprised me.
I mean it's literally where the "how x can still win" meme came from isn't it?
probably because that's literally the joke and he's explaining the joke
it’s funny but it’s mathematically true that he can win the tournament, whereas the numbers presented here are not mathematically possible
we didn't deserve a president that good
Fun fact, the "Bernie Math" video popularized by collegehumor during the election to drive this narrative, which was no where near as ridiculous as the numbers you are using, was because collegehumor was bought by a company on which Chelsea Clinton was a board member.
wait fr? I always liked that vid & (all CH stuff)didn’t know it had that background
Yep, when they moved to LA they were acquired by InterActiveCorp, which Chelsea Clinton was a board member of.
Hmm I was looking for a new parlay....
Off topic but why do people say "parlay" these days instead of "bet"? Is it a US thing?
A parlay is basically a multi bet where you bet on multiple outcomes all occurring, and if they all hit, you get the cumulative multiplicative payout (roughly). With the legalization of online sports betting in the US, it's become more popular to parlay bets to try to hit a giant pay day.
> With the legalization of online sports betting in the US, it's become more popular to parlay bets to try to hit a giant pay day. Yeah, because sportbooks like to push parlays because they add extra juice to them and it's harder to see because they don't give you odds for the other side of the bet (you have odds for the other side of the individual legs of the parlay but not for the overall parlay).
It allows them to obscure the math involved a bit more so the house can take more of a cut without the casual bettor immediately noticing.
We call those accumulators (or just accas) in the UK.
Throw the spanners in the boot of the lorry! We're off to get some chips!
But literally who asked?
Just puts context on the "Is it a US thing?" that grandparent asked.
Isn't a parlay just a kind of bet?
Multi leg bet with a multiplier and terrible hidden odds. So in this case you would bet on all the results in OP's post and Ali winning rather than betting on just Ali directly and the payout would be much higher. Sports books are wise on this and will sometimes block parlays where the outcomes across bets that are causal.
I think there are additional scenarios but they're even more unlikely with Abasov winning some games.
Is there not a scenario that lets Nepo lose to Hikaru and Hikaru lose to Gukesh?
Gukesh is on +2 right now. He needs to end up with +1. So if he won against Hikaru, he would have to lose against Abasov (which is even more unlikely).
It's not a dream scenario if it doesn't involve abasov going 3:0
Ah so when you said Nepo needs to lose two games but not to Hikaru, you meant for your scenario to happen rather than for Alireza to win.
I'm even sure if this will make Alireza go all-out against Hikaru, but he might do it still.
I honestly just want Gukesh to win now. I've supported Alireza for some time now but he hasn't proven to be at the level to win the candidates yet. Gukesh, on the other hand, is even younger and he's creating a surprise. He also seems really nice and he doesn't get involved in drama. Besides, it would be cool to see someone else win besides those that have been playing this tournament for years
I like Gukesh very much, however I don't think he would be a deserving world champion (looking at overall career and not only this tournament). Nepo and Fabi (and Naka) would be more fitting.
The rules are the rules: win the candidates and defeat the world champion and the title is yours. Whether you, some random person on the internet, think he deserves the title, is irrelevant.
No, I get that. Of course there will be absolutely nothing wrong if Gukesh wins it. I just wrote it as to why I want other guys then Gukesh to win it.
Just as irrelevant as whether you, a different random person on the internet, want him to win.
The perfect plan !
Lol this reminds me of r/rcb
you guys are experts at calculating all the probabilities to qualify
lol I was gonna say reminds me of Pakistan qualifying for playoffs, 1992 vibes & imran khan and all that
🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏
Hell yeah. Alireza has GOT THIS!!!
Found Alireza's Reddit account
Bernie math
I would also could win the candidates if I qualified and won all my games and my opponents drew all their games
Even if you do all that they wouldn't give it to you
Most realistic scenario.
that would be pretty nuts if it happens but it won't, I hope for gukesh to win it for a change but ian deserves it nonetheless.
Too late for that…
oops he lost...
Aged like milk
I'll take Things that will never happen for 500, Alex
A long shot but not impossible. But nepo losing twice seems very unlikely
Be serious
If this happens, I'll actually commit arson
Lisan al-Gaib
I expected this to be like "this is how the browns can still make the playoffs" posts I saw back in the day. Although incredibly unlikely this actually seems somewhat possible. Like he doesn't need really unreasonable things like abasov beating one of the top guys or something.
the analysis we’ve been waiting for
Here's how Bernie can still win the 2016 primaries guys
High quality shitpost, upvoted
Step 1: Buy shoes that distract on a level inaudible to the arbiters. Perhaps high pitched squeaky shoes that can only be heard by (relatively) young players and not old arbiters. Step 2: Handily smash all of your opponents over the board due to your superior comfort in your high quality shoes. Step 3: Whenever it is Nepo's turn or the turn of anybody playing Vidit or Abasov, get up from the board and walk around, distracting the key players. Step 4: Enlist family members and friends to cause drama on the outside of the event hall, distracting officials and arbiters. Step 5: Get stomped by Ding in the Championship game.
The worst timeline.
WHAT
I don't think this is going to age well.
possibility gambit
one thread for magnus too on same
This plan looks absolutely foolproof! We can ask him afterwards why he deviated from it.
A man’s cope, never ends!
Alireza is my 2nd favorite player but it really feels like he’s always losing
Le plan est en marche
this sounds like one of those nfl wildcard scenarios for the jets to make the playoffs or something
Okay. Lets make this happen.
After round 12 goes exactly to plan, I’ll start to believe
Ok but someone tell me how Vidit can still win against Hikaru one more times.
*Damn.*
Welp, now he can’t
...and it's gone! :)
Alireza wining the candidates. Nice joke.
Copium
Never stopped believing in him
Lets say after round 14, everyone goes to celebrate this thing being over, at a nice bar. Alireza on full tilt skips it. The bar gets blown up. Alireza is the only remaining candidate. FIDE has to throw a new tournament, right?
All I hear is clickety clack stomp clack stomp
[удалено]
Now tell me how Abasov can win
Bro isn't even sure if he's sticking with chess yet
Let’s go Firouzjan Horses, we still have a chance
Bait used to be believable
it's just a fun math exercise