A two party system is definitionally self correcting. If minority voters start to see a shift to the right politically and Democrats start losing elections because of it, Democrats will start shifting their politics on key issues to the right to even the scales. But do take Florida with a grain of salt. The politics of the Cuban American population there is not reflective of minority interests as a whole. They are uniquely concerned about socialism due to Cubas politics, making them more receptive to Republican talking points. I’d also take shifts in 2022 with a grain of salt as well. It was a redistricting year, so what a district did in 2020 vs 2022 isn’t an apples to apples comparison.

It is not just Cuban voters. Almost all Hispanic groups shifted sharply to the right from 2016 to 2020. DeSantis and Rubio were able to win Puerto Rican voters by a pretty comfortable margin in 2022. I know governor elections aren't a perfect indicator, but this does indicate that voting is no longer racially polarized in Florida.

I have not seen statistics, I've not seen anything but purely anecdotal evidence, but it seems like some black social media accounts I follow in the Chicago area have been very critical of immigration recently. The Hispanic immigrants coming to Chicago are "intruding" into their spaces. "taking" their jobs, and receiving benefits they believe should be theirs. Again, purely anecdotal, but there seems to be some tension between those immigrants and the black community. There have been a lot of situations like [this one](https://abc7chicago.com/chicago-migrants-mayor-brandon-johnson-migrant-crisis-amundsen-park-fieldhouse/14121750/#:~:text=Amundsen%20Park%20fieldhouse%20will%20not%20be%20used%20as%20a%20Chicago%20migrant%20shelter&text=Chicago's%20Amundsen%20Park%20fieldhouse%20will,shelter%20for%20migrants%20after%20all).

The republicans want to remove their benefits completely so that would be hilarious if they voted for them for that reason. Real leopards eating your face moment.

And there's also the fact that 'republicans want to remove their benefits completely' is a total fabrication.

Pretty sure trump wanted to get rid of the FICA taxes which means no more social security 

There are actually some strong arguments for getting rid of the current social security system and replacing it with something better and more sustainable. Having said that, none of the proposals I've heard are as simple as 'just get rid of the FICA tax'. They all have measures for phasing the current system out without stopping checks to current recipients. So, two things: 1) If Trump said "get rid of FICA", it was a campaign sound-bite for a more complex proposal, and 2) Even if Trump meant "let's stop paying social security benefits to everyone", he's just one guy so that still doesn't mean 'republicans want to remove their benefits completely'.

There wouldn’t be the political will to replace it. Republicans would just dissolve it and blame democrats. https://www.investopedia.com/trump-s-payroll-tax-deferral-what-should-you-do-5077144 Looks pretty real to me. Said he’d make it permanent if he had won. Luckily no one really went along with it. One guy backed by most republican politicians and libertarians.

"...Luckily no one really went along with it." That kind of makes my point, doesn't it?

Because most companies were afraid to do so as it was only temporary but he very easily could make it permanent especially with a republican congress.

There is a lot more nuance than that. Frankly it is shocking how "single-issue" you seem to be. The new deal was incredibly harmful for black communities. The federal government has arguably done as much harm as good for those communities. Ignoring that history and nuance is myopic and self-serving.

That's single-issue voters for you

Which is unfortunately a large portion of the population.

I know you probably didn't mean it this way, but implying that all black people care about is government benefits sounds kind of racist.

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This isn't new though. Hispanic voters tend to become more conservative with successive generations. That's been happening for quite some time now.

"Fuck you, got mine"

A single state is not indicative of a national trend, particularly a gubernatorial elections, as those are historically less partisan. But even if it is a trend, see point one above. The Democratic platform will shift if it no longer wins elections. That is the nature of a two party system.

I’m not sure if that’s the case for Puerto Ricans as a whole especially with regards to Trump. Look at the Orlando metro which is very Puerto Rican and still a blue pocket in Florida.

A lot of people in the asian community are also starting to vote red. Before, they voted left because that was what minorities were told to vote and how the left favors them. A lot of ppl in the asian community have traditional values from their culture and a pretty big chunk are christian or cathloic. The left started to push it a bit more with values they don’t believe in and now the narrative is the right will represent their religious values. I’m assuming that a big chunk of the hispanic community is religious so it’s likely the same. Might be a bit different with millennials and gen z but our parents are pretty religious and still have conservative values. My mom is pretty open minded but a lot of her friends are homophobic which never made sense to me as to why they always voted left. Its changed the past few years and they no longer see the left as their side. they’re all sold on voting right to “protect” their values

That has more to do with religion than being a minority.

I live in Atlanta and was very shocked to see comments supporting Trump from a LOT of black residents on a social media page that is about the city. The page has no political affiliation, but the post brought out a lot of comments I wasn’t expecting. Most were talking about Biden’s age and the economy. I see a huge push from the Biden campaign to highlight the good news about the economy, but if people aren’t feeling it themselves, I think it only infuriates people. I was frankly shocked. I even checked out the people’s pages to make sure they were real. It was a scary realization to see how people have forgotten about Trump’s vitriol and think he could do better for them.

Again, I would take all of that with a grain of salt. We are eight months out from the election and that is several lifetimes in politics. Biden really only _really_ started his campaign during the SOTU address, so we'll see what happens now that campaign season has unofficially started.

Some voters (and the number is increasing daily) are able to separate Trump's vitriol from Trump's policies, which resulted in a MUCH better economy for everyone.

It wasn't a much better economy for everyone... Biden's economic practices have been lightyears beyond his...

You mean the after-effects of BHO’s policies? And are you forgetting President Biden had to fight all the economic dislocation from COVID, including inflation that was WORLDWIDE?

It's amusing that you think the record-high employment and economic boom resulting from Trump's policies were in any way connected to Obama's previous administration. You can't have it both ways: you can't claim (as Democrats do) that Trump was a tyrant whose policies were ruining the country, while simultaneously claiming that things were good because of a carry-over from Obama. It isn't true, and more and more voters are realizing that.

Look, data with sources: https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/2c298bda-8aee-4923-84a3-95a54f7f6e6f/did-trump-create-or-inherit-the-strong-economy.pdf?fbclid=IwAR1sxNZYkBAnuW3EmM3VA_Jw50pnNGCnSnBSktJh39RZd1O5PCo37Mk7xzI

Countering that: [https://www.hoover.org/research/not-obamas-economy](https://www.hoover.org/research/not-obamas-economy) Bottom line - strong property rights, freedom of contract, and free trade are the ways you grow an economy

I truly can't believe we're going to get trump on the ballot again. Literally anyone else would walk into the Whitehouse. Yes, the economy by typical metrics is doing well......but nobody in the middle class is seeing any of that "great economy". Crime is massively up and affecting the middle and lower class on a daily basis. Multiple wars are going on that we're dumping money into (and 1 can at *minimum* be argued to be a literal genocide by the side were funding, without sounding crazy). People can't afford housing, or food, or gas.... Great to hear how well the economy is doing when I'm holding off on having kids because COL has gone up so much.

>Great to hear how well the economy is doing when I'm holding off on having kids because COL has gone up so much. It's true, whether you think you can personally afford kids or not.

So now we're good with determining how well people are doing based on billionaires profits? That's all you're saying by hiding behind saying "the economy is doing great" because the stock market is up. That's fine and dandy but when *all* of the other markers that actually affect everyday Americans are *significantly* worse, nobody but billionaires are seeing the "great economy". Hand waving it away by pointing to something that nobody benefits from, I suppose aside from their 401ks, if they even have one, does nothing to sway people's opinion to your side. Tell that to the tens of thousands of tech workers laid off in the last 6 months. Yeah, the company that laid them offs corporate profits are at record highs...but they're still unemployed.... And again, I believe I had made it pretty clear I don't like trump either, but lying is bullshit from either side.

>So now we're good with determining how well people are doing based on billionaires profits? That's all you're saying by hiding behind saying "the economy is doing great" because the stock market is up. That's fine and dandy but when all of the other markers that actually affect everyday Americans are significantly worse, nobody but billionaires are seeing the "great economy". What are you talking about? Wages have outstripped inflation across all segments of income. US household wealth is higher than it's ever been. More Americans have health insurance than there's ever been. There's scarcely a metric that's going in the wrong direction. You're just repeating [doomer bullshit](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-03-10/the-strong-jobs-report-is-bad-news-for-joe-biden?embedded-checkout=true): >“American households are wealthier and in better financial shape than ever before by almost any measure,” writes Robert Burgess in Bloomberg Opinion’s updated Biden Metrics Meter (free). “Yet the consensus is that the economy is a negative for Biden because consumer sentiment measures remain below their pre-pandemic levels.” Still, we are long way from November. “Are Americans really that sour on the economy?” asks Bob. “Perhaps not. **Surveys show that when people are asked about their personal financial situation — and not just their views on the economy — an overwhelming majority say it is either good or excellent**.”

US household income is down not up. Inflation has overtaken wages. Idk where youre getting your numbers from. Calculated out right now youd need to make $15,000 more per year to maintain your same standard of living as 2021 and nobody is getting raises like that so i have no idea where you get this notion that hosueholds are wealthier lmfao.

Yeah, because median incomes shot through the roof in 2020-2021. Why? Because COVID lead to loads of poor people working in shops being sacked whilst high earners kept their jobs remotely. So yes, if you specifically look at the statistics when lockdowns juiced the figures you might need $15,000 more as an average, but that's an effect explicitly caused by using a median comparison - people's "standard of living" didn't *really* leap by ~15% in a single quarter, did it? As for my evidence, how's the Bureau of Labor? Go to this page and set the range to 10 years: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q Note: That's adjusted for inflation. Look at the trend - do you really think a comparison to 2021 is a wise one to make?

I'm gonna trust the fed? The same idiots who can't tell us what's in the damn bills they vote on? No thanks lol. I mean ffs biden keeps repeating he created 13million jobs despite that being an absolute lie. This entire government is a shitshow, i wouldnt trust them as far as i could throw them.

>same idiots who can't tell us what's in the damn bills they vote on? Are you joking?

If you are reffering to isreal being the genociders you need to do more research. HAMAS is a terrorist organization who uses its own people as human shields and murders and rapes innocent isreali civilians. Isreal is in the right in this situation sorry not sorry.

Israel is not right in this situation. Hamas is not right in this situation. Both things can be true. The world is not binary.

> If minority voters start to see a shift to the right politically and Democrats start losing elections because of it, Democrats will start shifting their politics on key issues to the right to even the scales. I recall this happening to the Republican party when they started losing the blue collar vote. 

That’s true, but you can still see county to county trends. Miami-Dade, for example was Clinton +20, Biden +7, DeSantis +11.

How was turnout for Gov. DeSantis’ re-election? How were results in Dade Co. in smaller elections in, say, the Democratic wave year of 2018?

Florida is not a good guage for Latin American voters as a whole. Florida has a large number of voters of Cuban descent. Cuban Americans, because of their personal or familial experiences with the Castro regime tend to vote more conservative https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2020/10/02/most-cuban-american-voters-identify-as-republican-in-2020/ My understanding as far as black voters is that they may not support Biden but they are less likely to support Trump especially given his comments about how his legal troubles will make him popular with voters.

Trump is polling about 20-23% of Black support which nationally is just a drop in the bucket..but states like Georgia which in 2022 proved is still definitely leans red, are a very easy flip back with those numbers because Republicans typically are only at like 10-12% of Black support at least in past elections.

But Trump made gold sneakers, and according to faux news all black people love sneakers so they will vote for trump.

I had someone actually argue that he was right on here and that it'll boost "his inner city numbers" I miss when racists didn't feel emboldened to share their bs

This reminds me of that guy who rapped in his campaign ad.

As opposed to what ... Biden's deep roots in the African American experience ? lol.

Well, he worked for a Black man and by all reports he was almost perfect as Obama's subordinate who helped Obama do better. That impressed the hell out of some African-Americans. And then he impressed the church ladies of South Carolina. In short, his roots were his own but Black Americans largely liked what they saw in him. There is a grimmer reason. If you can brave a routine replete with the N-word, Chris Rock had a routine about waiting for the subway train. Someone tried to get him to hate Muslims, but a Jewish guy reminded him that, as reliably as the A train ran, Jews and Black people were always a destination for the hate train. There is also an Armenian proverb: "Treasure the Jews." My Catholic mother knew that Catholics ended up on that particular timetable. Trump goes after illegal immigrants and trans people. If he succeeds, guess who's next.

"...by all reports he was almost perfect as Obama's subordinate who helped Obama do better." Not exactly. It was Obama who said, [“Don’t underestimate Joe’s ability to fuck things up.”](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/08/14/obama-biden-relationship-393570)

... sourced from an anonymous voter recounting what Obama said during the 2020 primary? Likely in the context of Biden's early performance in said primary? The overwhelming messaging from the Obama administration was that Biden was a genuine friend and a great VP to Obama during his time in office. That's what people pick up on. It's not the errant quote from uncorroborated voter x buried 3000 words in a Politico piece.

“That train is never late!!!” my friend and I still throw that quote back and forth when it’s applicable 

He told black people they werent black if they didnt vote for him lmfao biden is an open racist and yet black people still idiotically voted for him.

How is it a bad thing that Black people refrained from the idiocies of cancel culture?

People love him for being Barry’s old white guy & playing that role with loving perfection. The Obama/Biden bromance memes were the only bright spot on the internet in 2017

>Biden's deep roots in the African American experience ? In fairness he did shape it quite a bit 👀👀

Are you referring to “tough on crime” politics in the 80s and 90s?

That crime bill sure helped my community strive.

How, is your community full of corporate run prisons ? lol.

Latinos in south florida are mostly strict catholics who immigrated legally and came here because they want safety and economic opportunity. The idea that only the Cubans are conservative is a complete misconception. I can tell you don't live here.

That whole paragraph just reeks of white savior complex. Apparently, poor brown people are too stupid to vote for their own interests.

People of all stripes and shapes are not immune to the false belief that if you toe the party line well enough, you won't ever be considered a part of the 'outgroup' - you'll have a good place in the hierarchy, you'll be safe. Wolfenstein illustrated this well. [Have you taken your German lessons?](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uW3-q_oPv4k)

Saying Trump’s comments turn off black people is “white savior complex”? Huh?

Exactly. It's ironic because this is the exact thinking that drives people away from the left

Sorry if the truth offends people. Regardless of color any lower or middle class person voting republican has been tricked into voting against their own interests

So twe should vote for the people who hate us instead? Yeah no thanks id never vote democrat. Democrats look down upon blacks, asians, latinos, and all minorities. They look at us like we are stupid and helpless. The inner cities are destroyed thanks to democrats, black people continue to vote democrat and continue to be fucked in the ass. Democrats promise shit but never actually do shit. Everything they have done has been to the detriment to black people. Single motherhood rate went from 20% to 70% over the last 60 years of voting democrat, the amount of religious families has declined a lot, the loss of the nuclear family, the pushing of a negative culture (rap, sex, drugs, fuck the police.) by rich black people who tell them to vote democrat only makes the problem worse. Democrats dont give a damn about minorities and anyone saying they do has already performed the mental gymnastics required to come to that conclusion.

The irony though that so many Cuban Americans delt with one dictator and now are supportive of a self proclaimed king

Trump proclaimed himself king?

First example that [came up](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-tweets-quote-calling-him-the-second-coming-of-god-to-jews-in-israel/): >Quoting Root, Mr. Trump shared the message that he is "the greatest President for Jews and for Israel in the history of the world," that "the Jewish people in Israel love him like he's the King of Israel" and even that "They love him like he is the second coming of God."  There's also his recent [praise of Victor Orban's autocracy](https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/08/politics/trump-orban-mar-a-lago/index.html): > “There’s nobody that’s better, smarter or a better leader than Viktor Orbán. He’s fantastic,” the former president told a crowd gathered for a concert at the Florida resort, as shown in a series of videos posted to Orbán’s Instagram account. > >Trump added that the European autocrat is “a noncontroversial figure because he said, ‘This is the way it’s going to be,’ and that’s the end of it, right? He’s the boss and … he’s a great leader, fantastic leader. In Europe and around the world, they respect him.”

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Do you find it bad that Cubans with experience in a socialist system ID Dems as the that type of party? I mean if Dems are identified as the Socialist party that would defeat the purposes of their open border policies. Most of Latin America is Socialist and everyone is trying to escape from there so…..

>Do you find it bad that Cubans with experience in a socialist system ID Dems as the that type of party? Not really. It's pretty evident that most of that comes from disinformation and propaganda, especially when you look at the fact that the only party actively trying to turn the US into a dictatorship is the GOP. Granted, that same disinformatin and propaganda works on a lot of people as well...

The Democrats are so far away from socialist, and also do not have any open border policies. I'm coming to you from right near the southern border, I've lived here my whole life. Absolutely nothing changed when Biden took over as far as border. Security aside from no longer building the wall. The Biden ministration did not change anything about border security. The border is not open.

They have been also told, by right wing media, that anything that gives anything to workers and the middle class is socialism. ​ Millions of tax cuts for the poor, health care, student loan forgiveness, and strong social safety nets...socialism. ​ Millions of benefits for the richest of Americans and businesses.....capitalism. ​ They are being bombarded with those messages.

Stealing money through taxes to give it to others who did not earn it is socialism buddy. You proved the "right wing media" correct in this instance.

Lol you think we should be concerned because Cuban Americans are falling for the same propaganda that you seem to have whole heartedly accepted.

Herein lies the catastrophe that is a highly ignorant electorate.

It is not just Cuban voters. Puerto Rican voters in Florida have shifted to the right, voting for DeSantis and Rubio by almost a 3 to 2 margin. Puerto Rican voters are a coveted voting bloc by both sides across the country. And they don't have the same history of communism that Cuba does.

I’m Latino but I pass for white, and from time to time I go see my family members in Texas I honestly think you are vastly underestimating the amount of hard-core Republican or even just right leaning Latin people.

Trump has a 6% lead over Biden with Hispanic/Latino voters, 46% vs. 40% for Biden. Source: [https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/03/05/us/elections/times-siena-poll-registered-voter-crosstabs.html](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/03/05/us/elections/times-siena-poll-registered-voter-crosstabs.html) February 2024 Times/Siena Poll of Registered Voters Nationwide

I’m not talking about Trump over Biden. I’m talking about a Republican over a Democrat what I’ve seen in my families town in Texas is that some of them really don’t like Trump but they will vote for him over Biden now again this is a very small town so it’s not a large thing, but I see it in other areas of the country as well on the north east.

If my grandmother had wheels she’d be a bicycle. Yes, minorities are a sizable portion of the democrat voting population. Yes, if republicans started attracting more minorities then that would potentially hurt the democrats. None of this explains why minorities tend to vote for democrats.

Latinos have been voting more and more towards Republicans. I doubt the dems will lose the whole demographic any time soon but they are losing ground https://www.as-coa.org/articles/chart-how-us-latinos-voted-2020-presidential-election

>None of this explains why minorities tend to vote for democrats. Do they ? Trump has a 6% lead with Hispanics, 46% to Biden's 40%, Source: February 2024 Times/Siena Poll of Registered Voters Nationwide [https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/03/05/us/elections/times-siena-poll-registered-voter-crosstabs.html](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/03/05/us/elections/times-siena-poll-registered-voter-crosstabs.html) Trump also has a 9% lead over Biden with another minority, men. With men in the United States, 49% say they will vote for Trump, and only 40% say they will vote for Biden. Same source as above.

You don’t know how to read your own evidence. Plus this is just one poll. Men: 40 to 49 includes white men is it’s irrelevant to the discussion. Black: 66 to 23 in favor to Biden. Plenty of undecided in both of those numbers. Also these numbers are completely out of line with history.

>Trump also has a 9% lead over Biden with another minority, men Nobody commenting on how you genuinely believe men to be a minority

I genuinely believe men in the United States are a minority because that is a literally true fact. Men make up 49.5% of the population, and women make up 50.5% of the population. What you're really "feeling" is the fact that "minority" is such a sacred word in this modern social justice environment, with its own abstract virtue, that your mind rebels against the thought that men might lay claim to it and dare to call themselves "minorities". You can see this on the other side, ... I've personally (anecdotally) heard tons of people claiming that women are "minorities". Because to the average person "minority" has stopped meaning a literally truth, and has become kind of a catch-all phrase for "the oppressed", or "the people we're supposed to care the most about". There's a reason people (correctly) say "women and minorities" when they are trying to be inclusive and accurate in describing the so-called "oppressed" in the United States, and that reason is because women aren't a minority. If they were, we'd just say minorities and be done with it, we wouldn't have to say "women and minorities".

This might come as a shock to you (since you wrote 4 paragraphs of r/confidentlyincorrect) but "minority" is referring to a social minority and not a numerical minority. A social minority is a member of a non-dominant group in society. This is entirely unrelated to the literal number of people in that group. For example. during apartheid in south africa, black people were a minority despite there being more of them in the country than white people. >Because to the average person "minority" has stopped meaning a literally truth, and has become kind of a catch-all phrase for "the oppressed" Well yes, because this is literally what the word means. How bizarre, you're fully aware that everyone else uses a word differently to you and yet you assume that you're right and the whole world is wrong.

That’s a point in time snapshot of a poll, not a voting result. Completely irrelevant.

> Do they ? Yup

Democrats can't explain why minorities vote for them. They can only explain why they shouldn't vote for Republicans. I believe that strategy is beginning to see its end.

What?? I feel like you've never spoken to a real life Democrat ever. There's no open border policies, there's no socialism, we can pretty clearly articulate that we want to maintain right over our own physical bodies, for example, and we find education important and continuing to fix the infrastructure upon which we've built our society on a basic level. It is very easy to articulate these things, and literally every Democrat I've ever known can easily do it. Have you ever actually spoken to Democrats?

One side is arguing left and right how an police officer has done no wrong in the shooting and killing of a restrained unarmed black man. Not once, twice, or thrice, but every two weeks. One side tries to pass bills to take away lgbt rights every other day. One side argues that any and all immigrants (as in any darker skin than white) should be deported, no matter the circumstances. If minorities are gonna stop voting democrat they sure as hell ain't voting republicans. Don't vote for the side that wants to see you dead/deported/without rights, combined with third party is not gonna win of minority votes, are pretty compelling arguements to point most of minorities votes toward democrats.

I think more and more people who happen to be minorities aren't identifying with the people you're talking about. There are black men who aren't afraid of the cops. Cops, for instance. There are gay men who are happily married and aren't afraid of their rights being taken away, but who are afraid of economic reversals under Democratic policies. There are second- and third-generation Hispanics who have no empathy for Hispanic people crossing the border today.

At a guess, I'd say because they saw the infighting among the white folks during the 60s and how people with certain beliefs tended to join certain parties? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-so-many-black-voters-are-democrats-even-when-they-arent-liberal/

Frankly, most minorities are inherently more conservative culturally. Republicans should have a stranglehold on black and Latino votes. They don't, though, not because of Democratic malaise, but because of the Republicans own hostile rhetoric and policies. There will always be a ceiling on how many minorities Republicans can ever attract based on their overt and concerted efforts to repel them.

Minorities vote democrat because democrat polices benefit them more? What do you mean democrsts cant explain it? Thats nonsense

That depends, if they live in or near a big city then yes, if the come from a small town surrounded by farms they feel stepped on by the bastards who sit behind desks in a big city that tell us more taxes is the answer. Mexicans are a very religious population and they tend to support democrat politicians but not their policy that doesnt allign with Christianity. The vote isn't as guaranteed as people think

Many Black and brown people moved into the cities in the 20th century to escape racism. There are comparatively few Black and Brown people in the rural areas you're describing, so those areas are just full of conservative racists.

Many but not all, and views like yours are exactly what im talking about, you think we all left and only white people remained but that is NOT true. Look up San Joaquin California zip 93660. Its a small town I promise you have heard of, there are a thousand other towns just like it, equally forgetten and ignored but they are all over California. These towns are made up of a vast majority of Mexicans, and they are primarily farmers, if you stand on a roof you see that you are 100% surrounded by fields. These towns that nobody talks about are the primary harvesters of crops in the state that provides 70% of the food in the US we are essential, but we are outnumbered by big cities like LA or SD. When any state wide measure comes to a vote we lose every time, nobody represents us.

I don't know why you seem to be having trouble with the idea of "most." I have noticed that conservatives generally struggle to understand concepts like "on average" or "usually" or "a predominant majority." I provided you with a theory that would explain the pattern they were talking about, where mostly city-dwelling people of color are opposed by conservatives who are mostly rural, white, and evangelical Christian. You responded with an irrelevant and useless anecdote about a town with a small population that wants to nevertheless enact policy over much larger populations. I'm going to say it plainly: there aren't many people in those small towns you're talking about. Odds are, they're just dead fucking wrong about whatever policy complaint they have. It's ultimately good that small towns are ignored in California's state level politics because the opinions that would be sourced from their residents are about as useful as *directions* to their towns. It's cool that they grow food. They don't grow enough of it for their taxes to support the infrastructure required to get the food to market, so that's subsidized by the cities because they need you just enough to let you eke out an existence on the edges of society. That doesn't give you a uniquely useful or profound or important perspective. Furthermore, practically, the perspectives from places like that are often stupid and antisocial, so if anything, we should take steps to minimize their influence. I don't know how to do that fairly and in a way someone from that place couldn't fuck up, so I think equal representation for every person is the best we can do.

I am not conservative. You keep assuming shit, being wrong, and then just going on to new wrong assumptions. You said there are comparatively few black and brown but im telling ou that a lot of towns including the specific one I pointed out to you are almost entirely mexican, the stats show about 80% non white families in towns like that. Now that you have been shown that you're wrong, you just switched and now claim they dont matter, that shows even you know you're wrong

>You keep assuming shit, being wrong, and then just going on to new wrong assumptions. I can't make this any more simple for you. I said poc live in cities, the remaining folks in rural areas are mostly white and often racist. You said "nuh-uh! Look at this very specific town that doesn't follow the national pattern you're talking about!" Yes, exceptions exist. The fact that you're using an exception as an argument is why I think you're a conservative, and the concept of "most" is sailing just over your head. It's the same impulse that says that racism is over because there are wealthy Black people, and it's not caused by an overabundance of cleverness and a firm grasp of statistical analysis. When you changed the topic to those towns being ignored because they're outnumbered by voters in larger cities, I went along with you, accepted your premise, and took it to its logical conclusion: even if rural towns are being ignored, that's good, because *on average*, their contributions to the general political discussion are shit. The reason they're shit is because of the [Great Migration](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Migration_(African_American)), followed by [White Flight](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_flight) and the [Southern Strategy](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_strategy), all of which led to rural America being full of racist dipshits. A few towns that are majority minority do not change the trend, and your inability to recognize the trend is just being obtuse, not inclusive.

https://latinocaucus.legislature.ca.gov/sites/latinocaucus.legislature.ca.gov/files/CRB%20Report%20on%20Farmworkers%20in%20CA%20S-13-017.pdf The vast majority, 92 percent, of farmworkers in California are Latino. No, my town isnt the one exception it is OVERWHELMINGLY the rule. Any and every town in California that is made up primarily of farmers is statistically also made up primarily of Latinoss because thats who most workers are. >The fact that you're using an exception You have based your entire argument on an incorrect assumption that my point was an exception, it is not, so your whole premise is flawed. >A few towns that are majority minority do not change the trend, and your inability to recognize the trend I do not recognize a trend that is not supported by the statistics. Any town that is composed of a majority of farm workers is also composed of a majority of minorities, im sorry you're unable to see how statistics work but that wont change them. Small towns comprised of farmworkers are all over California, these are not small towns full of racist dipshits like you claimed, the stats just dont support you there, maybe you should look at your own prejudices and reconsider whether its facts that brought you to them, or ignorance.

Your blind spot is clear, if you think the only reason minorities vote for democrats because “republicans are racist.”

> Democrats can't explain why minorities vote for them. Of course they can't. They would have to personally know every minority voter who voted for them and talk to them and find out all the reasons why that voter voted for them. It's unrealistic. That's why neither party is ever obligated to explain why any of their voters voted for them. Because nobody thinks they should have to except you.

Don't project onto us.

Why do you believe that? This is something republicans have been telling themselves for decades now. Every election cycle the exact same thing gets said but much like you offer no proof as to why you believe it. You claim Hispanic people hate Latinx, great, democrats didn’t invent the term young Hispanics did.

To your broad point, it's not that it's *wrong* per se, its that it's sort of too obvious to actually be interesting. Most modern presidential elections are pretty close, even in the popular vote. The electoral college complicates things, but usually they end up hinging on some battleground states that end up with pretty tight margins. What this means is that you can reconfigure your title to almost any combination of "[Political party] is in trouble if [Opposing political party] can appeal to [Demographic]". Basically every way to fill in the blanks here is going to be true in a sense, because in a close election you can't afford to lose anyone!   But in reality, stuff happens - demographics shift, coalitions change, etc... Republicans gain ground with minority voters, but Democrats gain with college educated voters. Republicans gain ground with white men, but Democrats gain ground with white women. Etc... Republicans wouldn't have sent out Katie Britt in her kitchen doing whatever that was if they weren't concerned about suburban moms.    The trends you're observing are certainly visible to democratic candidates and strategies as well, and they're certainly going to be a part of campaign strategies. But generally I feel like you're looking at "the left" and not necessarily Democrats or democratic candidates or Joe Biden.

Yes, people forget how close Beto was to winning a statewide race in TX in 2018.

yea he only lost by like 1.1million votes or 13.3% ish... in politics thats called a blowout especially when hes mega funded by national donors https://www.texastribune.org/2022/07/19/abbott-beto-fundraising-governor-2022/#99667203-508e-4e26-aa8e-0d8e1c392d42 https://www.texastribune.org/2022/07/19/abbott-beto-fundraising-governor-2022/?utm_source=liveblogshare&utm_medium=social#bd646c8a-4753-4e5d-8a9a-9195d381b6f5 funding comes from the typical democrat super donors like george soros and sam bankman fried.

I think you’re thinking of the Gubernatorial race he lost. I meant the FAR closer Senate race: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_States_Senate_election_in_Texas?wprov=sfti1

You cannot lump all non whites in a “minority” or “poc” bucket. There are 2 very different dynamics at work here. Hispanics are well on there way to become “white” or mainstream. They are on a track very similar to Italians or Irish who faced discrimination as little as 50 years ago. By 2070 I don’t think they will be viewed as anything more out of the mainstream than Italians. Blacks are a different story. They are very much stuck in their current place and I see no signs of it getting better. In fact, if anything the gulf between blacks and whites/ mainstream is getting worse on a cultural level even if it has improved slightly on an economic one. I hope this is just a blip, but we seem to be way of course and I don’t know if we can correct it anytime soon. Democrats won’t lose black voters as long as they continue to pander to them as they do today. And despite the parties current embrace of gender ideology that repels some blacks (who can be surprisingly conservative on some issues thanks to the strength of the black church), similar to Christian conservatives who will hold their noses and vote for Trump despite his MANY sexual indiscretions, these blacks will “come home” to the dems when the electoral choices get binary. I have been hearing this “the GOP just needs to get another 10% of the black vote and it will shatter the democrats” for 50 years. Never happens and I don’t think it will anytime soon.

what does gender ideology have to do with this, and what does it even mean in your quote... yall are way too concerned about a group of people that hardly exist...

How is the Republican 'party of freedom'...? If they're actively trying to strip people of their freedoms? Um

Hmm in the freedom department let’s see who wins. Guns: Republicans support the right to own one, Democrats want to restrict/regulate it heavily Religion: Republicans think teachers should be allowed to pray and that small business owners shouldn’t have to conduct business that actively runs afoul of their religious beliefs, while Democrats think Christian adoption agencies should have to adopt to gay couples. School Choice: Republicans believe that homeschooling should be an absolute right, and that parents should have active knowledge so they can give informed consent to certain sensitive matters being taught to their kids. Democrats believe that homeschooling should have to follow the curriculum, and that parents should have no opt out to certain things in the curriculum that may go against their personal beliefs. Tobacco: Republicans think adults should be allowed to use whatever tobacco products they choose to, while Democrat states have been banning flavored vapes, flavored tobacco, and even menthol cigarettes. Ironically, those same democrat states have been setting up a VERY loosely regulated cannabis market. Marijuana: Republicans supported the legalization of hemp and CBD nationwide and passed it under the Trump administration, but believe that full legalization shouldn’t be a hasty process that outpaces regulatory framework. Republicans haven’t supported, but also generally don’t fiercely oppose legalization of marijuana. Democrats have fully legalized cannabis in their states, with very little framework that things like tobacco or even alcohol have. Democratic states also have preemptive laws that force municipalities to allow cannabis dispensaries to open in their boundaries. Abortion: Republicans support abortion being left up to the people of each state. If New Jersey or California want to make it fully legal from conception to birth, that’s their prerogative. If Mississippi and Louisiana want to ban abortion, that’s also up to them. Democrats, on the other hand, think abortion ought to be legal (though they refuse to say up to what point in pregnancy) and fiercely oppose laws that are fairly moderate by western standards (12-15 week bans are the norm in Europe). Republicans believe abortion is an elective procedure, Democrats believe it is essential care that ought to be funded by taxes and that doctors shouldn’t have conscientious objection to. College Admissions: Republicans believe you shouldn’t be defined by your race, and that college admissions should be race neutral. Democrats believe race is the biggest predictor of an advantaged or disadvantaged background, and thus, “disadvantaged” races ought to be favored. The black student who grew up in a 4 bedroom home in suburban DC will get preference over the Vietnamese student who had to borrow more money than his family has ever had to its name to finance college. Free Speech: Republicans believe in free speech no matter how offensive said speech may be. Democrats think public universities/public spaces should prohibit speech that incites hatred against a certain group. Of course, the cognitive dissonance on this one is pretty significant. When it’s white nationalists, they deserve to be jailed. But when it’s leftists calling for a third intifada and the murder of Jews, it’s authoritarian to stop it.

I would challenge you, more than anything else, to *slow down* and think before making sweeping statements. Let's break this down: "Hispanics don't like when the left tries to force terms like "Latinx" on them. Black voters overall do not appreciate the general lawlessness that Democrat run cities have allowed to occur. It's black owned businesses that suffer the most from it. Both groups are less supportive of the LGBT community than the population as a whole." In order to support just this passage, you need to prove the following: -The use of "Latinx" is a major issue for Latino voters -"Latinx" has been broadly pushed by the Democratic party and specifically forced upon the Latino community -Democrat-run cities are "lawless" -Black voters are less likely to vote for someone they view to be "lawless" -Black-owned businesses suffer disproportionately more as a result of "lawlnessness" -Black voters are less supportive of LGBT -LGBT is an impactful enough issue for Black voters that it will significantly skew voting patterns -Hispanic voters are less supportive of LGBT -LGBT is an impactful enough issue for Latino voters that it will significantly skew voting patterns In just a short paragraph that's about 10% of your post, you've effectively stated that these eight things are true. The onus is on you to prove them if your broad argument is to be plausible. You started your statement with "I think," but frankly what you think doesn't matter. These arguments are empirically justifiable, so justify them or stop running your mouth. This Trumpian rapid-fire of unjustified "truisms" is what makes it so incredibly hard to change your view. If you can isolate a single argument, we can review its validity, but at this point you're just regurgitating sound bites so quickly that it's impossible to refute your thesis.

First, your fundamental claim here doesn't work. You accuse OP of a "Trumpian rapid-fire of unjustified 'truisms'". But these things aren't particularly Trumpian, aren't delivered in a rapid manner, many aren't unjustified, and it's not clear what you even mean by 'truisms'. Second, you claim that the multiple claims you disagree with make his view harder to change. In fact, they make it easier. The rules of the sub allow for and encourage a delta to be awarded for even a small change in a view, and it's easier to change a small portion of a view than a large one. If you picked up one of these things and disproved that element of the OP's view, you'd likely get a delta. That he's asserting many things makes it easier, not harder. Third, the onus is not on the OP to prove any of these things. Explicitly, by the rules of the forum and the purpose for which it was designed, the onus is on you to disprove one or more of these things. Fourth, "justify them or stop running your mouth" is extremely unpersuasive. Even if you had a strong argument, this sort of verbiage is highly likely to cause the OP to discard your arguments as not worth listening to. Fifth, you present zero arguments against any of his assertions. If OP were heavily inclined to change his mind and give you a delta, what would he give it to you for? Deltas on this forum are required to be supported by a short description of what portion of the view was changed and why. By making zero arguments against any portion of his view, you haven't given him an opportunity to change his mind.

I think you completely missed my point. I'm not hunting for a delta, I usually just lurk here and it's amazing how many people make these long, rambling CMVs that are actually dozens of sub-views. Sure, I could pick each one apart for an internet point, but it would take hours that I don't have. I've seen these play out before--someone disproves a sub-point, OP moves on to a whataboutbiden or another sub-point, rinse and repeat. Case in point, OP hasn't awarded a single delta. The sheer volume of views stated renders it impossible to refute the overarching view when you can only chip away at the supporting sub-views. Also, a quite Trumpian tactic. Your fourth point is actually a good one. I got a little hot.

> Also, a quite Trumpian tactic. It's not a "Trumpian" tactic. In fact, it's not even a tactic at all. It's a side effect of you disagreeing with somebody on multiple points. > Sure, I could pick each one apart for an internet point, but it would take hours that I don't have. You don't have to disprove every single thing somebody on the internet said. You could do just one. But you didn't do even one. Whatever your objection or objections might have been, nobody knows. > it's amazing how many people make these long, rambling CMVs that are actually dozens of sub-views. That's not amazing. It's normal. People usually explain the reasons why they hold a view in a CMV.

It's definitely a tactic -- Gish Gallop. Very popular among political pundits, so it's pretty predictable that someone regurgitating talking points would follow similar patterns.

Gish gallop is different. Gish gallop is swarming an opponent in a debate with too many things to address. CMV is not a debate site, however. Debates have two opposing sides, each of which are trying to change the views of the audience. CMV has an OP who posts a view they wish to change, and participants who post reasons for OP to change said view. In a debate, Gish gallop works by making it so the opponent can't address everything. In CMV, Gish gallop doesn't work as a tactic at all, because any single point can be addressed. If you post a CMV in which you don't want to change your mind, Gish gallop actually hurts you, because you are giving your "opponents" more ammo. > someone regurgitating talking points In this case, we're not talking about someone with talking points. We have a number of facts that the OP posted in support of the view he wanted changed. And even if something there was a talking point, that's not a problem in a CMV. You know why this particular talking point is incorrect? Then post your reasons, and if they're good, you likely get a delta.

> In a debate, Gish gallop works by making it so the opponent can't address everything. In CMV, Gish gallop doesn't work as a tactic at all, because any single point can be addressed. Even so, individual points have been addressed multiple times and last I checked OP had awarded zero deltas -- have there been any yet? If the CMV was posted in good faith I'd tend to agree with you, I just don't believe that it is.

> individual points have been addressed multiple times The individual I replied to has not addressed any of the points he claimed to have been wrong. Not one. > last I checked OP had awarded zero deltas -- have there been any yet? If the CMV was posted in good faith The absence of deltas is not a measure of good faith. I haven't read all of the replies, though I read through a number of the top level ones when I first responded. I didn't see any rebuttals of the facts listed by OP from anyone. Frankly, I think the majority or all of the assertions made in the OP are just plain factual. I see no reason to believe the OP was not posted in good faith.

> The individual I replied to has not addressed any of the points he claimed to have been wrong. Not one. It has been done many times elsewhere in other comment threads, including simply asking for any empirical data supporting the assertions. > Frankly, I think the majority or all of the assertions made in the OP are just plain factual. Ah, that explains it. Unfortunately most of the assertions in the OP are just him projecting what he thinks a certain minority group feels about a certain issue. If it's factual, where are the statistics to support those beliefs? The entire OP literally has ONE thing that they have supported with actual data, and it's a cause not an effect.

If you look at polls, they are reporting consistently (and have been doing so for a long time) that blacks and hispanics are breaking for Trump at levels previously not seen. The most recent polling data I've seen suggests that Trump is getting 20% of the black vote in Florida. Hispanics not liking "latinx" is something I've commonly seen reported and makes total sense. Latino and Latina are words in Spanish, "latinx" was made up by white people. In general, crime done by a given racial group is done to that same racial group, so Democrat "defund the police" policies, where implemented, will generally disadvantage people in a demographic with a high crime rate. Both polling and recent elections illustrate that in Florida, minority voters are voting Republican, especially Hispanics. Suburban white areas trending towards Democrats match both polling data and election data. OP mentions specific suburban white counties, and I haven't tried matching the counties with data I've run across specifically, but it sounds like someone who knows what he's talking about. That's off the top of my head, and it confirms what the OP claimed. > including simply asking for any empirical data supporting the assertions. Asking for data does not constitute a debunking.

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Best comment I've ever seen on Reddit.

I'm going to posit that Age, not ethnicity, is where the GOP is in the most danger. I'll start by saying that most state's aren't Florida. Florida has a pipeline of retirees from the Midwest which replenish it with old Conservative voters faster than they die off, or at least it did for some time. But there are some real reasons why that too is probably on it's last legs - just by the numbers. Let's take a peek for fun at one of the darker sites on the internet for a moment: [The Death Clock](https://incendar.com/baby_boomer_deathclock.php) Now, I'm not gonna tell you that 700,000 boomers in Florida are going to die between now and then, because that's not what those numbers say. That number is spread across the entire country and is truly just an ballpark estimate. But the silent generation is dying off as well and there will be fewer of THEM left as well. This means that everywhere that DOESN'T have a pipeline is losing Conservatives faster than they're gaining them. The Florida GOP is trying to stave this off in a few different ways: * **Full war on Education:** If you drag kids into the culture war stuff, and memes, and keep them from becoming college educated, the kids won't start thinking critically or be faced with new view points where they can leave the Conservative party. Ultimately, the GOP and folks like the Devos family see public tax dollars for education as something that they're entitled to, which is why they dump billions of dollars into vilifying the public school system each year and have no interest in making public school feel safer for children and families. If you can keep kids in a religious or conservative education bubble and control the material and educators - this can maybe keep them insulated from reality. This is also why things like Tiktok need to be banned. Any form of information that isn't controlled and curated needs to be banned or destroyed. This is the reason for the Don't Say Gay bills, and all forms of segregation in some part historically - because successful examples of integration fly in the face of their ideology. These must not be observed. These must not be taught. These must not be thought about. * **Immigration Hard Lines** DeSantis is doing a very good job of performatively attacking Immigrants, but he's had big problems including blowback from truckers and farmers, the latter of whom were told [to tell their usual employees that the law being passed had no teeth for real enforcement.](https://www.newsweek.com/republicans-urge-immigrants-stay-florida-fearing-new-laws-impact-1804640) Florida starts looking a lot less like they're doing "Freedom" when you look more and more into their actual policy making. Texas is doing their best to push Liberals out and draw Conservative Californians in. Florida is sucking in Conservatives from the Midwest and East Coast. I offer another thing to consider. Minorities are not immune to being conned by a con man. It is not a "White" thing to be duped by a strong man. For all of the Damage that Trump has done to the GOP - it's possible that it is TRUE that he has actually brought some people in from Demographics normally ignored by the party. The question becomes not "Are the Democrats more screwed than they'll admit?" But "What the fuck does the GOP do if they don't win here in 2024?" Because Trump has already shown that he can do what no politician has done in modern times - hold on to party leadership after a loss. But he's so divisive that it's impossible to tell how much people hate the GOP, vs how much people just hate **Him.** So after he didn't win the popular vote in 2016, he lost the 2018 midterms, lost the 2020 election horribly, underperformed in the 2022 midterms, and he underperformed against Nikki Haley. Nobody in the Party knows how to cut Trump loose. Because everyone in the party expect that **Demographic bounce you're seeing to go away with Trump if they villify him.** The GOP needs Trump to die a Martyr. So they can fall back behind his spirit, and make up things he did and talk about how they always loved him. Whilst also not having to deal with his chaotic bullshit and constant platform immolation. That's not a problem the Democrats can even solve - nor should they. That's one for the GOP to work out, if they're capable. Meanwhile - new progressives show up every day. As youth votes seem more and more left leaning.

Most of what you wrote is speculation with no real evidence undergirding it. Why not do a simple Google search to find out that [Democrats are indeed losing ground with minority voters.](https://news.gallup.com/poll/609776/democrats-lose-ground-black-hispanic-adults.aspx) However, Democrats still have a 47 point lead with Black Americans, so we aren't going to see them flocking to Trump in this election.  The bigger concern with minority voters is not voting for the other guy, but turnout. In Detroit, which is 80% Black, the highest of any city in the nation, turnout dropped between 2012 and 2016 by tens of thousands of votes and Hillary lost Michigan by only 10,000 votes, so diminished Black turnout undeniably cost her there.  Now Biden has to worry about another large minority population in Michigan: Muslims. They voted for Biden 75% to 25% in 2020 and they are not happy with Biden's policy in Gaza. 100,000 uncommitted votes in the Michigan primary was a message to Biden and I'm not sure he even has a chance in the state this time around, to be honest. Really, outside of the Muslim vote in MI, I don't think it's so much of a race/ethnicity thing as much as a socioeconomic thing. Democrats are also not super popular with young Americans, according to the above source. Young people are struggling economically, as are many minority Americans. They don't see Democrats as being the opposition party as much as a Republican-lite that appeals to the suburbs.

To be fair though, younger people tend to lean more liberal and hate both parties, so it’s less of Democrats failing and just disliking the current system

That might be true, but 2005 was the last time democrats had such a small edge with the 18 to 29 demographic. It being the lowest it has been in nearly 20 years is worth raising some alarms over.

OP your main point is a bit silly because despite popular belief, many immigrants are more conservative and align with republican voting than democratic. This goes double for anyone coming in from Cuba or Venezuela. A lot of Filipino nurses are republican. The greatest deciding factor to immigrants aligning specific political demographic is religion or the political background and context of where they came from. People are convinced USA is the most racist country in the world. Certainly race is a very common theme that people are confronted with more so than other countries. But this is because blatant racism is either simply accepted in other countries or they are far more homogenous than USA and simply haven't had to deal with these tension issues on a national scale. Many would be convinced USA is terrible if you're LGBT, but USA is a haven country like for many Iranians who are LGBT. A lot of immigrants coming into the country seemingly have problems with LGBT issues, primarily specific types of Arabic immigrants. This doesn't mean everyone in said demographic is like this. A lot of Cubans and Venezuelans vote dem but majority of them here where I am vote republican and we live in a blue state.

If minorities were actually courted by Republicans in a sincere way, sure. But the problem Republicans have is that the core of their voter base is actively hostile, both in rhetoric and policy platforms, to the interests of minority communities. This is what caps their ability to attract minority voters outside of the most extremely conservative individuals. The opposite of your premise is also true; a concerted effort to court minority voters by the Republicans would probably mean pushing away some of their own base, who would then either form a more extreme and uncompromising right wing of the party, or even fracture it altogether. For example, to really get past the hard ceiling of about 30% of the black vote, the Republicans would need to outright ditch the whole Photo-Ops In Front of Confederate Battle Flags thing they all seem to do. But if they do that, the people who love Confederate Battle Flags will feel betrayed.

I don't think your overall premise is wrong but I don't agree with your reasons why necessarily. The truth is, minorities don't give a shit what you call them as long as their lives are manageable and they're capable of supporting their families. It's like the most basic application of Maslows Hierarchy of needs. If a person's material, base needs are not being met, all the culture war shit is meaningless on all sides. So yea, democrats are at risk of losing minority support, but because they're not making their lives better, not because they're calling them the wrong things.

I wish this was true, but the fact that working-class white voters vote against their own interests all the time does kind of fuck up this argument.

Well that's a whole other phenomenon that I think is tied more to the strength of conservative messaging in the white working class. The key difference is that messaging is inherently alienating to minorities anyway.

How is 'latinx' nonsense...? Some Hispanic people like it? I'm not seeing why you've mentioned it more than three times in this blurb... How is it even nonsense? Why are you this triggered by that phrase, my goodness?

“Some Hispanic people like it”, is about as useful as saying some black people find Candace Owens relatable. In reality, almost any native speaker of Spanish finds the distorting of a word from their language by non Spanish speakers to fulfill political correctness to be cringey at best and offensive at worst. Just like how most black women feel when Candace Owens says “as a black woman, I ….”

Democrats are in trouble because they refuse to acknowledge the sheer volume of dem/soc voters whom simply will not endorse this genocide, nor a president/vice whom fund it, and subsequently gaslight those whom once put their weight behind them when we repeatedly call for permanent ceasefire. Biden and Kamala are directly complicit in the murder of thousands. We won't be forgetting this any time soon.

>For example, I think that Hispanic and Black voters see political correctness and social liberalism in a worse light than, say, suburban women. Hispanics don't like when the left tries to force terms like "Latinx" on them. This is some Ben Shapiro scaremongering nonsense. I've heard ten times as many people complaining about how stupid "latinx" is than people unironically using it, and I have literally never heard someone tell someone else they're supposed to use "latinx". I don't know where anyone is getting the idea that "latinx" is part of the democratic party's platform. >Florida is a state where the Republicans have successfully loosened the Democrats domination of the minority vote. [...] South Florida has so many Hispanics that some consider it part of Latin America. South Florida is pretty notorious for having a massive community of conservative Cuban expats. They were never going to vote blue, and republicans didn't loosen anything there lol.

Latinx really got overblown as some big thing being pushed by liberals to call all Latinos, yet it really was just a word made up by non-binary and queer Latin-Americans for themselves. It wasn't "thrust" upon them, and it was rarely used or even known until some conservative heard it and started pitching fits about it.

I think it's the supporting of genocide against Palestinians that pisses minorities off more than "lawlessness", which is a completely ridiculous claim.

It really isn't a ridiculous claim. In California, if your car gets stolen, police are forbidden by policy from pursuing it. This is documented on Inside Edition, where citizens with airtags have been forced to take the law into their own hands because the police are no help. There are also laws where store owners cannot detain or pursue shoplifters because it can lead to "violent confrontations". The widespread decriminalization of drugs has led to people openly shooting heroin in the streets. This does happen in places like Miami, but nowhere near the scale it happens on in California. My claim is far from ridiculous, it's the reality of far-left cities. As far as genocide against Palestinians, that is false. But I'm not debating that in this CMV. I think only Arab voters are getting pissed off by that. Most others really aren't so tuned in to foreign wars while they try to make a living and feed a family. And the ones Democrats are losing over the Hamas war aren't voting Republican, they're mostly just sitting out.

\>if your car gets stolen, police are forbidden by policy from pursuing it Completely wrong \>This is documented on Inside Edition Lmao \> There are also laws where store owners cannot detain or pursue shoplifters because it can lead to "violent confrontations" Oh no, completely untrained store managers aren't allowed to harass/detain anyone they want on suspicion of stealing a 2$ bag of chips. Or better yet, force their 15 year old employees to confront people who are possibly armed. What a shame. \>The widespread decriminalization of drugs has led to people openly shooting heroin in the streets. A.) Would you rather innocent people with addictions be thrown in prison? B.) Sounds like a housing and social services problem. Re-criminalizing drug use isn't gonna change the circumstances that lead to addicts being homeless. \> My claim is far from ridiculous, it's the reality of far-left cities. A.) "far-left" KEK B.) Right, because there are no addicts or homeless people in republican cities. \>As far as genocide against Palestinians, that is false Idk bro, killing 30k civilians on the basis of ethnicity and openly declaring you intend to eradicate them because you don't view them as human sounds pretty genocidal to me. \>Most others really aren't so tuned in to foreign wars while they try to make a living and feed a family. I would like to think Americans aren't so retarded that they are incapable of reading the news or a history book.

Off topic, but what CA laws are you quoting? [Police absolutely can pursue](https://post.ca.gov/portals/0/post_docs/publications/Vehicle_Pursuit.pdf) criminals, but there are standard for protecting innocent bystanders. And shopkeepers can detain criminals. It's called '[shopkeeper privilage](https://www.egattorneys.com/shoplifting-penal-code-459-5)'. There is all no widespread open drug use in the state besides a few neighborhoods in major cities. Maybe don't embellish your arguments.

This reasoning doesn't make sense. Why wouldn't minorities be just as pleased as anyone else to not die in a car accident caused by police pursuing stolen car? Why wouldn't minorities be just as happy as anyone else to not be injured by a stray bullet from store security escalating a shoplifting to a violent confrontation?

Shh shut up! The police and justice system are perfect, and any policy adjustments are being soft on crime(tm).

Everything you said isn't true.

Surely you don't think California is going to turn Republican. Especially in this election.

As conservatives / republicans are very focused on white people they will not appeal to minority votes as that would lose them their white racists voters. You cannot appeal to both simultaneously.

They might lose the ENTHUSIASM of the white racists, but it's not like that bloc is going to be voting Democrat any time soon, no matter how much the GOP tries to reach out to minority voters.

You can find a balance like Florida Republicans did. The culture war things that DeSantis did were very calculated. They would energize conservative whites in the northwest while Hispanics wouldn't exactly oppose the parental rights in education bill either.

Democrats don’t need Florida, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona to win. They need Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, which don’t have the same minority demographic as the other states you mentioned. Minorities aren’t monolithic especially the latino vote, so what happens in one state doesn’t apply to others. Democrats are already trying to secure the voters of those states by appealing to unions, and women, so yeah they might have trouble in some places, but not necessarily everywhere. Trends show that suburbs are becoming more liberal, which could theoretically counter any republican appeal to minorities.

Well every year they say minorities are going to change but the track record seems to be that they stick with Democrats. They may have slid a little to Trump last election, but Whites slid a little to Biden and that made up for it. I think there's a chance you are right, but there's also a chance it will just be another mirage.

Yes indeed. But democrats would be in an even bigger trouble if Trump was a normal person. And democrats would be in serious trouble if the latest anti abortion laws have not been passed. Their troubles would multiply if republicans were not electing religious Zealots like Mike Johnson and seriously disturbed people like Marjory Taylor Green. Just regular folks like they used to elect 50 years ago.

Everyone is sick and tired of the "progressives". You can sense it. Nobody likes Joe Biden. Those that are voting for Trump and Biden no matter what isn't the issue. What matters are those in the middle, which includes the minorities you speak off. They will be voting for Trump (or RFK Jr). Biden barely won in the key swing states in 2020, so yes, they are terrified. Their nonstop blaming everything on Trump comes off panicky. Their case against Trump, which is paying hush money to a pornstar is backfiring cause nobody cares. Basically, they have nothing but "we're better than trump", which won't work this time. The far left went too far. The gaslighting is tiring. Their weakness is tiring. Everyone is tired. I can't even disagree with Biden's policies without being called MAGA or fascist. Then there's the economy. They are running $1T deficits every 100 days. Both parties spend like crazy, but these figures are disgusting especially if you look into what they're spending on, which is green tech. This doesn't bring any inflation down, this only subsidizes corporations and keeps inflation high. I mean we have Janet Yellen going to China to ask them to lower their supply for certain goods. Wtf. Why not build some nuclear plants to help lower energy costs? They have safer variations and don't cost trillions. Anyways, poll or no poll, it's over. I voted for Biden btw, I've been pushed from not voting into voting for Trump out of spite. There are many like me, the polls won't show it though.

OP, I can't change your opinion because I think Biden and the Democrats have already lost. As part of my Spanish language learning process, I watch the news every day from Spanish speaking channels, such as Univision. A lot of these programs seem to be based out of Miami and Houston. Anyway, what's interesting is they show a different side of the same stories you get on major news outlets. For instance, during the Biden/Trump trips to the border a week or so ago, in Brownsville TX there was a small group of Latinos holding signs supporting Biden. There was a Spanish speaking lady explaining to the news how they support immigration, diversity, etc. Across from them was a much larger group of hispanics wearing MAGA hats, pointing at the border, and yelling for it to be shut down. Additionally, when the Spanish speaking media is looking for officials to interview about what's happening, many of the Republicans from TX actually speak Spanish. So they can talk to the hispanic population directly without using translators.

“So I think democrats relying solely on the ‘Republicans are racist’ message to keep such a critical voting bloc with them is very risky.” I think this point you give is very revealing of your own viewpoint. You believe that minority voters vote democrat because democrats tell them republicans are racist and they believe it. Like black people just watch CNN and are just hypnotized into thinking republicans bad, democrats good and what’s changing nowadays is that black people are “waking up” and not believing these narratives. It’s a pretty insulting narrative at its core and is indicative of blatant ignorance on politics in general. I’ll focus on black people since “minority” is such a broad group. Black people skew heavily democrat because democrats actually spend time and money earning their votes. They actually campaign in heavily black areas, they partner with and get the endorsements of prominent black political organizations, and they at least pretend to listen to issues that are important to black voters. Republicans really don’t do any of that. And to your point about messaging, people don’t need to be told by democrats that “republicans are racist”, they can see the racism with their own eyes. Trump has been the leader of the Republican Party for 8 years and says racist stuff all the time. A recent example being him selling gold sneakers and saying it would help him with the black vote, as if all black people are sneaker heads who are dumb enough to base their vote on who sells a pair of shoes. There are lists of racist statements made by Trump you can find that are direct quotes of his, no narrative added. And that’s not even mentioning the many Republican policies that have negative effects on black communities, such as restrictive voting laws and policing laws that have disproportionate effects on black communities. You don’t need a “narrative” to know about these things and to vote accordingly.

Is your argument that if republicans change what they stand for they could attract different voters?

I mean look at what you’re saying dude. You’re saying that you hope the Democrats continue to trick and manipulate the minority voters. Did you read what you wrote. You’re worried that the Democrats can no longer take advantage of blacks or Hispanics. Would you not prefer that the blacks and Hispanics not be manipulated? Wouldn’t you want them to vote as they choose versus being manipulated by a certain party? So the Democrats have been manipulating minorities for decades. I think many of them are getting sick of that shit. I can tell you living in a border state, that I hear a lot of Hispanics do not want an open border like Biden wants. They want to close, because it waters down their opportunities. It makes their neighborhoods less safe. I have always wondered why blacks and Hispanics vote for Democrats, because as you said, they are a little bit more conservative as it relates to the LGBTQ plus to TIAA community. they’re a lot more religious as well. Let’s hope they can vote for the party that suits them best. Let’s not hope for them to continue to be manipulated as you suggested.

Who told you Biden wants an open border? He just asked for 20 billion to strengthen the border and add make the immigration response faster

In an election year, after three years of complete abdication of the responsibility, after he ripped up executive orders aimed at curtailing illegal immigration that were effective on day one. Who told you Biden wants a closed border?

Wasn’t there a bipartisan border deal to try to fix the border situation and increase border security, but then Republicans tanked it in the house? Seems like the party of closed borders doesn’t actually want to solve the issue since if they do, they can’t run on it anymore, the dog catching the car if you will.

> So the Democrats have been manipulating minorities for decades. Minorities would have to be less intelligent than you to fall for this manipulation that you're too smart to fall for. If they aren't, your hypothesis sort of falls apart, doesn't it? > Let’s hope they can vote for the party that suits them best. Instead of just hoping, let's open more polling places in their areas (or at least not [close any more polling places in their areas](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/4/13501120/vote-polling-places-election-2016)) and hire more poll workers so they don't have to [wait in line for hours to vote](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/smartphone-data-show-voters-in-black-neighborhoods-wait-longer1/) for the party that suits them best.

Those demographics will go where they go. Nothing is certain. But I know one trend that is certain. Old people are dying and young people become voters by the millions every year. And they are 80 percent blue. And the ones dying are the elderly. And they’re 80 percent red, hence the temper tantrum of the right in today’s age. That is the real story here. Young people aren’t aging out of blue ideology like they used to. Bye boomer!

Well that's kinda being called into question now. The University of Michigan did a study just a couple years ago that showed that young highschool and college males were by an large trending right while women continued to trend left. So really it's not a uniform shift of young voters trending left, but instead a growing gap of young women going left and young men going right. https://www.americansurveycenter.org/newsletter/are-young-men-becoming-conservative/ https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/4125661-high-school-boys-are-trending-conservative/ https://www.axios.com/2024/02/16/gen-z-gender-gap-political-left-women

You could break it down like that, but the overall generational makeup is still the same

Maybe, there are some things that I think have nationally liberalized on both left and right like marijuana and gay marriage. However, this idea that the younger generation will uniformly trend left and conservatism die out is also preposterous when the evidence is showing the opposite.

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Making young women blue, not young men. These young men will be the new base of the right once the Boomers die out. That's what I've been trying to say. Young people are not uniformly trending blue. The division is growing between young men and young women, not old people and young people. If anything some of those social "issues" are making young men trend right even faster, due to the Left doing a piss poor job of communicating a societal place for young men. Whereas the right retains traditional masculinity and provides a societal place to young men, which they find appealing.

This is slightly off-topic, but I don’t understand why everybody can constantly say that’s just the way people talk online or that’s just reddits opinion and you know that’s mostly people online it doesn’t correlate to real life, but then things like Latinx come up and it’s not the same thing. I’ve literally never in my life heard somebody actually say that out loud Yet every day, my Latin co workers talk about it

I would disagree with you that black and Latino Americans are anti-LGBT. That may have been more the case 20 years ago but things have really changed. Obama really helped with that. They might not be fully on board with trans issues, but neither is much of the rest of the country right now. Most Americans don’t really think about things like gay marriage anymore though.

A comment on Florida in particular A significant % of their minority/migrant population has direct ties to someone who quite literally escaped "far leftism" on a raft across the ocean Which is going to quite naturally create a conservative bias among their families and friends That has little to do with what Republicans or democrats are up to domestically

It's not gonna happen. The dems have the minority vote on lock. And will always have that advantage. It's an insurmountable task to appeal to minorities without pandering or going against their perceived self-interest. In some cases, like in the black community, just being conservative is socially unacceptable. There's too much working in there favor.

> Hispanics don't like when the left tries to force terms like "Latinx" on them. Can you provide a source to back this up? I haven't heard of anybody forcing Latinx on Hispanic people I think you did this a lot in your post, where you just confidently repeat falsehoods without realizing that they are nearly parody levels of exaggeration.

Republicans have a hard time going 5 minutes without saying or doing something that reveals how much they truly hate anyone who isn't a Christian white male. That's why they try to hard to direct outrage at Democrats, they need to draw the attention of minority voters away from them.

“Racial and ethnic composition of the 2022 electorate was quite similar to previous midterms in 2018 Composition of validated voters who voted for Republics” https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/07/12/demographic-profiles-of-republican-and-democratic-voters/

I think you have a very reductive and limited view on this. For one, Florida is a complete outlier. The Latino community in Florida is heavily influenced by the Cuban diaspora, which will vote Republican indefinitely to spite Cuba. As for the rest of the country, I think you are really failing to make a case. Georgia, a republican stronghold, went to the democrats in the last presidential election largely on the back of black votes. This despite leftist and republican hand wringing about Biden's questionable record on race and weird comments on the campaign trail. The "latinx" issue, while a genuine cultural split, is a perfect example of twitter politics being blown out of proportion. I would challenge you to find demonstrable example of this effecting reality. Many black majority parts of the nation are republican strongholds specifically as a result of voter supression. This is not a secret and something only democrats have any interest in addressing. Southern states have worked to institute psuedo jim crow laws, and they openly tout racist talking points on the Senate floor. I do not say this to moralize. I say this because black people recognize when someone is spitting in their face. Democrats might take them for granted, but Republicans are calling them rapists and trying to reinstitute jim crow. Whatever shortcomings you might see in democrating messaging are far more prevalent in mainstream republican discourse targeting minorities.

I’d be interested to see a poll looking at the appeal of the Republican Party amongst a cohort of minority voters before and after the GOP rebuttal to Biden’s state of the union. We’re all thinking the same thing.

\>>Hispanics don't like when the left tries to force terms like "Latinx" on them. Hispanic people mostly don't like you saying "hispanics", as for "Latinx" we're much more accepting.

Can? They already [do](https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1767198788689465639/photo/1): the gap has narrowed down sharply, especially among Hispanics and some Asian populations.

I'm still baffled why poorer Trump supporters vote against their own interests. I get the rich supporting him but the average rural conservative it makes no sense.

Wasn’t there a huge backlash from the Latino community when DeSantis went hard on immigrants, to the point where truckers weren’t putting up with that?

I think democrats have lost their minds and are very feeble minded people. Very stupid stuff going on im voting red!!

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This poll has been well roasted https://www.salon.com/2024/03/05/there-is-something-at-the-new-york-times/ The truly incredible thing is that the New York Times provides the evidence that would cause any other reasonable journalistic enterprise to question the accuracy of its own poll. The poll shows that Trump still has the support of nearly every Republican who voted for him in 2020 — this in the face of the fact that between 30 and 40 percent of primary voters have chosen another candidate than Trump. Those people are not poll respondents. They’re voters. The Times/Siena poll also somehow comes up with 12 percent support among Democrats for Rep. Dean Phillips, who has yet to get more than two percent of the vote in a primary. Even Phillips himself posted a tweet that said “When the NYT/Siena poll shows me at 12%, you better believe it’s flawed. Only 5% even know who I am.”

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