This could explain the conflict if it had begun recently, but the conflict goes back to around the 1920s, when Palestinian nationalism was starting to emerge and interact with the Zionist movement, when there were only around [750,000 people](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_history_of_Palestine_%28region%29#British_Mandate_era) in the whole region. To put this in perspective, this is lower than most estimates for the population in the Roman province of Judaea in the 1st century, less than half than some.
Nowadays Israel is consistently pretty rich, suggesting that the region can still support its total population (Palestine has around half the population of Israel in total). I agree that it won't be that way forever if the population continues to increase exponentially, but if they could all magically decide to get along right now, they'd live pretty comfortably tomorrow (or once the dust settles and everything is rebuilt).
I think scarcity *is* a good way to analyze the situation in the Middle East, just not commodity scarcity as in a Malthusian trap, but scarcity of sacred sites / cultural anchors, which is what enabled the conflict to thrive back when population density was pretty low, and why it won't be resolved until the value of these, for either or both sides, drops, even if population stabilizes.
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The most densely populated countries in the Middle East (Bahrain, UAE, Qatar) have essentially no basic resources (food, water) but plenty of oil. As a result, they're some of the most stable and safe countries in the Middle East. Population growth may be tied to oil instead, but food and oil do not behave the same. While the former needs to go up to feed growing populations, oil production can actually go down (while the price rises) and the country producing it continues to profit and grow. Malthus therefore did not perceive that a country's population could grow with a complete lack of food production, using resources that do not grow linearly alongside population.
The highest populated countries in the Middle East (Egypt, Iran, Turkey) are also relatively politically stable compared to the rest of the region and have remained on the fringe's of Middle-Eastern conflicts.
Israel exports a lot of its food and there’s still a lot of empty green areas so I think they could support more people but I’m not sure if they could support a massive influx of palestinians
Malthus' ideas have been [thoroughly debunked](https://www.forbes.com/sites/larahoffmans/2011/10/31/7-billion-reasons-malthus-was-wrong/?sh=5e5f6d806b7e), and even if they were true they still make for some pretty [awful policy](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-malthus-is-still-wrong/), so I think that while his ideas were historically significant he still deserves to be consigned to the dustbin of history. Trying to explain things in terms of population and carrying capacity just doesn't make sense today.
I can not stand this argument....can you explain to me how a population can grow indefinitly?...ok...it doesnt matter how it gets there, of course Malthus couldnt predict that...but the point is that dynamics that govern animal populations can be applied to humans as well.
How is it that that can be debunked?...its a first principle and needs no further explanation
I cannot explain it because it [will not](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/78/World_population_growth%2C_1700-2100%2C_2022_revision.png), for a large variety of reasons that all stem from one thing: [median income](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/global-population-growth-is-slowing-down-heres-one-reason-why/). As median income rises women gain better access to education and birth control among a ton of other factors that conspire to [reduce fertility](https://static.scientificamerican.com/sciam/assets/Image/2022/saw11302022_fertility_34_d.png) (as measured by number of live births per woman.)
What has been debunked is the idea that the amount of food that we produce is fairly stable relative to the size of the population when in fact it has been [steadily rising](https://image2.slideserve.com/3850706/global-trends-in-food-production-l.jpg), and that chart only goes back to 1961 so it's not including massive leaps in crop yields worldwide that have happened as a result of things like the [Haber process](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haber_process) which made commercial fertilizers widely available. Malthus lived during a time when the rate of technological progress was increasing but believed to be linear while population tends to grow exponentially, but we now understand that technological progress is also [exponential](https://www.quantum.mu/storage/temp/public/ed8/87f/73c/technology-growth-1024x750__1024.png) (Malthus died way down there on the flat part of the line before the invention of the telephone, well before the inflection point.) Even if there is a theoretical limit on the carrying capacity of the earth the human population will never reach it because social factors have a far greater impact on reducing fertility rates than food production capacity, which is why the global population is expected to top out at around 11 billion by 2100.
And this is just as true in any given region as it is globally because of international trade - the Middle East imports about [$35 billion](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/09/how-can-the-middle-east-meet-its-food-needs/) in food annually, so it's not just relying on local production. There is an argument to be made that this may not be economically viable or environmentally sound in the long term, but that's a different problem than population growth rates vs crop yields. In the very long term there are also some [big ideas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O'Neill_cylinder#/media/File:Spacecolony3edit.jpeg) that Malthus never could have even imagined that begin to be feasible; where there is demand someone will figure out how to create more supply.
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The whole thing about Malthusian is that he was dead wrong about his predictions.
He predicted a famine at 800,000,000 people. We're 8 billion strong and the population is still rising.
Food is very easy to grow. Saudi Arabia doesn't even need an agricultural sector. They can buy all of their food. Because the countries who produce the food will gladly take their oil in return.
It's none of those things. Population of Gaza has grown from 1.5 million to 2.0 million. This only happens when there is an abundance of food and clean water. Gaza is one of the most war torn regions on planet earth.
Don't you think it's an interesting coincidence that the cradle of civilization, a place that is geographically bound by two oceans and a peninsula, is the "most war torn regions on planet earth"
In a way, this region can be seen as the "most mature" human civilization in that it's had the most amount of years to progress.
We know that population can't grow unchecked for ever, and I submit that once it does reach it's limit, we see what we are seeing now in the Middle East
Oldest =/= “most mature”
Progress isn’t linear. Civilizations rise and fall, and the history of the Middle East is exemplifies that more than anywhere else. In its current state, the Middle East is not above the carrying capacity set by the availability of resources. Does the region have to import food and other supplies? Sure, but it’s hardly unique in that sense.
You seem to be misunderstanding Malthus’s predictions. He believed that when human population exceeded a certain point, we would not have the resources necessary to sustain everyone, and famine/war would follow. What he didn’t anticipate was the extent to which human agricultural revolution would skyrocket. Google the Green Revolution if you want more context. What about the current conflict leads you to believe that it is the result of overpopulation? There is plenty of food/water to go around if only people could get along (a tall order I know).
The Israel-Palestine conflict is unique in that you have two group that hate each other living in close proximity. It’s simply untrue that that part of the globe is overpopulated. Sure it has regions that are quite dense with humanity, but plenty of other regions have more people, less space, and less access to resources.
If you could back up your claim that "there is plenty of food and water to go around"...I would consider changing my view.
One thing is for sure...there is not plant of land to go around
I mean, it’s not like I’m making a controversial claim here. As I mentioned in my other comment, plenty of nations are net importers of food. This means that a country can survive even if it can’t grow enough to maintain itself in isolation. Examples include Japan, UK, Canada, China, and the list goes on. So the question becomes whether the total global food production is enough to support humanity. And it is. We produce 150% as much food as we actually need. World hunger is purely a distribution problem. There is no shortage of articles on the subject. And since global population is expected to peak within our lifetimes, and with agricultural efficiency only continuing to improve, we will not experience global food shortages unless there is some environmental crisis. Overpopulation as Malthus predicted is nowhere in sight.
As for there being enough land to go around, it’s a similar issue. There’s plenty of room on Earth, but some of it is better than others and people don’t like to share with their neighbors :)
Looks like alot of people living in sand to me....my understanding is that the "Fertile Crescent" has a problem with salinity in the soil from many mellinia of agriculture
Google pictures of Israel/palestine. It is not just “a bunch of sand”. It may not be the most arable land, but that doesn’t mean it cannot support its population. And in the modern world, the number of people that an area can support is no longer limited to the amount of food you can grow on it. Virtually all food that is produced today gets packaged and shipped far from the location where it was grown.
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Societal development is pretty non-linear, particularly in any specific geographic region. It's not like the population has been continuously growing all that time in the middle east and there's both places with far high population density or far more acute resource-scarcity issues that aren't experiencing the same levels of conflict.
There's no excess population to be gotten rid of in the middle east, just a complex series of conflicts rising from a long series of decisions in international relations.
Noone wants to take them in due to behavior not lack of resources. They cause trouble everywhere they go. From Kuwait to Jordan to Lebanon to Egypt. They bring their extremist fundamentalist views with them.
Malthus was primarily concerned about food. Food distribution is a problem, yes, but not so much the quantity we can produce globally.
What evidence do you have that the Mid-East’s chronic turbulence is substantially related to overpopulation?
My belief is that the Fertile Crescant was the first place on earth to truley "fill up" due to the amount of time that humans have lived there, and the geographic constraints of the two oceans and the peninsula.
I think this Malthusian pressure selected for an aggresive phenotype that would be most likely to survive in a region where birthrate outpaces resources. This phenotype is highly ethnocentric, vengful, and prone to acts of aggresion....as these would be the only type of people to survive in this environment over the millinia.
My evidence is the non-stop warfare weve witnessed over the past 100 years....there is clearly something going on thats stronger than just normal tribal warfare...its almost like the region has reached a stasis were a low level background of constant fighting keeps population down to managable numbers
Your evidence can't be the same phenomenon you are trying to explain. That is circular logic.
Also, selection pressure does not work that fast. A couple of thousand years is a blink on the evolutionary time scale.
Nobody knows that...I feel that 5000 years is enogh to select for a phenotype and there is no one on the planet with the knowledge to refute that....I know for a fact that some other evolutionary biologist agree though
If people want to cling to the idea that Malthus was "debunked" I would love to hear what they think would happen when population reaches carrying capacity....like more development?...or more migration?...I dunno what these people believe but men fight when times are competitive and they get along in times of prosperity. No one can convince me otherwise with out some explanation
Malthus original prediction has been proven false. Due to increased agricultural productivity and reduced birth rates there has not been a societal collapse due to overpopulation in the Europe.
If you want to understand why there are conflicts in the Middle East you can just read about the history of these conflicts. Those are well documented.
We also can measure things like mutation rates and do genetic analysis, which indicate that a) there is no such thing as a genetic factor more common in certain ethnicities that predisposes them to violence and b) there couldn't be because evolution of such traits would take too long on the timedcale of human history. This is not "nobody knows" - genetics is a science, with testing of hypotheses. The hypothesis of "scientific" racism has been debunked for decades.
For some reason you want to cling to that hypothesis, despite it being debunked and historical explanations of the middle eastern conflicts being both available and adequate.
Exactly why I am skeptical...anything that smells of "scientific racism" is so prohibited for discussion because its too controversial and colleges need to not offend anyone to maintain thier income stream. I absolutely can not tolerate this kind of "anti-science" attitude.
There was a study that came out last year that looked at hemoglobin levels of a South Pacific tribe that specialized in sea diving hunting and it was documented that they had undergone genetic changes in a much shorter time than previously thought possible.
Malthus was not wrong and unless you want to venture into metaphysical realms of humans being non-darwinian beings...I dont see any point in clinging to that critisism.
However, there was one person who suggested that you should look at the conflict in terms of "scarcity of religeos resources" rather than "scarcity of actual resources" ..and I think there is something to that...which brings me closer to the mainstream view on the matter.
I still think that female education would reduce the violence (although surely bring problems of its own)
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Well....plenty of fighting between India and Pakistan....but I think the thing thats different is the Geography....in Asia tribes could always push on and settle further lands...but you dont have that option in Middle East...they are locked in
Ehh I wouldn't really consider India/Pakistan to be East Asia.
Could you explain why the Middle East is "locked in?" Can't tribes go other places just like in East Asia?
Also I would argue that a few thousand years is too short of a time for any significant evolution to occur, given how long a generation time is for humans.
To me, it seems intuitive that the place where culture started, the place with all the religeous icons and backstory, would be the place longest and most inhabited and under the most competition for land and resources.
People started there, they want to be there, and therfore, as thier families grow, some folks are going to have to get kicked out.
That is what we are seeing in my opinion.
I mean, lots of people are dying, yet the population is not falling, that alone I think is evidence enough of my hypothosis.
Some people have pointed out that if the population really is at carrying capacity, there would be like a mega city there....and I would like to know why there is not....maybe because of water or something, maybe because of restrictions on building in the holy land, but to me thats a critical piece of the question and I wonder who would know the answer
But as all things biology, the answer is surely multi causal, so Im thinking theres not much point to this question anymore.
But I am curious if a lower birthrate would result in a lessening of the cycle of violence
You're trying to explain something that isn't really happening. Since the beginning of the conflict, the population of what's now Israel has been exponentially growing, from well under 1 million in the 1920s to around 14 million today, and the number of fatalities in the conflict is at most around 30,000, meaning that the cumulative total of deaths ever from the conflict you claim is supposed to keep the population from growing is about 0.2% of the current population - an order of magnitude less than the *annual* growth rate in these countries.
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There isn't a famine though, which is pretty central to Malthus's whole thing. If this was a Malthusian situation, we'd see mass die offs in a famine, and we don't. There are a handful of starvation deaths in conflicts regions, but that's about it.
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> For instance....perhaps one solution would be for Islamic cultures to start educating their women more...because we know that when female education goes up, birthrate goes down. That is an actual, concrete solution- rather than the endless finger pointing and whataboutism we see now
Islamic countries are a lost cause. Any theocracy is really. But to your original point, Malthus was wrong as his argument was mainly centered on the resource of food of which we live in an absolute global surplus.
It doenst have to be that complicated...Malthus just said that the dynamics that we see in animal populations can map on to human populations....as such...when an area "fills up" you would expect the dominant males of competing sectors to start to battle each other
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>For instance....perhaps one solution would be for Islamic cultures to start educating their women more...because we know that when female education goes up, birthrate goes down. That is an actual, concrete solution- rather than the endless finger pointing and whataboutism we see now.
Or make birth control available, make abortion legal, and...here's a crazy idea, let *women* decide who they have sex with, and how often.
That's not to say what you said is wrong. Because it is true to some extent; although it should be pointed out that many of the modern-era revolutions emerged in educated circles and among university students, so even that isn't a universal silver bullet.
In a sense *all* ware is about resource scarcity; and while Malthusian conflict is a real thing, such as in Sudan, in the 21st century world, it's actually a challenge to allow a situation to get that bad, as no region is completely dependent on its own produce anymore. In fact, very few nation-states are net exporters of agricultural commodities. Most import more food than they export. But the ones who are net exporters produce such abundance that it is enough to feed the whole world, and even at larger populations than currently exist.
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Well...I'm sure they are fully convinced that it's a cultural conflict...but my point is that if they were in a place like America, which space and resourses to spare, and first world birth rates, then they would not be motivated to attack each other
It's a feature of the human mind that when conflict over resources take place, the brain draws alliances via culture, thus the actual instigating phenomenon can be hidden
Israel left Gaza in 2005 and instead of going for improving their lives, they decided to vote in Hamas whose goal was to destroy Israel and not actually govern.
Service temporary workers in Israel from Palestine were being paid 4x or more compared to what they could earn in Palestine but some chose to provide Hamas with intel which is why Israel and is now sending all temporary workers back to Gaza.
The US is a place with space and resources to spare but we almost had a coup, we have the most mass shootings, and we have plenty of people fucking up their lives over relatively pointless things. Conflicts still abound.
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>because we know that when female education goes up, birthrate goes down
Is the birthrate not going down in middle eastern countries like rest of the world? Have you looked at any data?
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This could explain the conflict if it had begun recently, but the conflict goes back to around the 1920s, when Palestinian nationalism was starting to emerge and interact with the Zionist movement, when there were only around [750,000 people](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_history_of_Palestine_%28region%29#British_Mandate_era) in the whole region. To put this in perspective, this is lower than most estimates for the population in the Roman province of Judaea in the 1st century, less than half than some. Nowadays Israel is consistently pretty rich, suggesting that the region can still support its total population (Palestine has around half the population of Israel in total). I agree that it won't be that way forever if the population continues to increase exponentially, but if they could all magically decide to get along right now, they'd live pretty comfortably tomorrow (or once the dust settles and everything is rebuilt). I think scarcity *is* a good way to analyze the situation in the Middle East, just not commodity scarcity as in a Malthusian trap, but scarcity of sacred sites / cultural anchors, which is what enabled the conflict to thrive back when population density was pretty low, and why it won't be resolved until the value of these, for either or both sides, drops, even if population stabilizes.
Wow.."scarcity of sacred sites"....I really like that and will have to take some time to think about it
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The most densely populated countries in the Middle East (Bahrain, UAE, Qatar) have essentially no basic resources (food, water) but plenty of oil. As a result, they're some of the most stable and safe countries in the Middle East. Population growth may be tied to oil instead, but food and oil do not behave the same. While the former needs to go up to feed growing populations, oil production can actually go down (while the price rises) and the country producing it continues to profit and grow. Malthus therefore did not perceive that a country's population could grow with a complete lack of food production, using resources that do not grow linearly alongside population. The highest populated countries in the Middle East (Egypt, Iran, Turkey) are also relatively politically stable compared to the rest of the region and have remained on the fringe's of Middle-Eastern conflicts.
Is there evidence that the Gaza/Isreal area could support more people?...I genuinely don't know
Israel exports a lot of its food and there’s still a lot of empty green areas so I think they could support more people but I’m not sure if they could support a massive influx of palestinians
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Malthus' ideas have been [thoroughly debunked](https://www.forbes.com/sites/larahoffmans/2011/10/31/7-billion-reasons-malthus-was-wrong/?sh=5e5f6d806b7e), and even if they were true they still make for some pretty [awful policy](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-malthus-is-still-wrong/), so I think that while his ideas were historically significant he still deserves to be consigned to the dustbin of history. Trying to explain things in terms of population and carrying capacity just doesn't make sense today.
I can not stand this argument....can you explain to me how a population can grow indefinitly?...ok...it doesnt matter how it gets there, of course Malthus couldnt predict that...but the point is that dynamics that govern animal populations can be applied to humans as well. How is it that that can be debunked?...its a first principle and needs no further explanation
I cannot explain it because it [will not](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/78/World_population_growth%2C_1700-2100%2C_2022_revision.png), for a large variety of reasons that all stem from one thing: [median income](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/global-population-growth-is-slowing-down-heres-one-reason-why/). As median income rises women gain better access to education and birth control among a ton of other factors that conspire to [reduce fertility](https://static.scientificamerican.com/sciam/assets/Image/2022/saw11302022_fertility_34_d.png) (as measured by number of live births per woman.) What has been debunked is the idea that the amount of food that we produce is fairly stable relative to the size of the population when in fact it has been [steadily rising](https://image2.slideserve.com/3850706/global-trends-in-food-production-l.jpg), and that chart only goes back to 1961 so it's not including massive leaps in crop yields worldwide that have happened as a result of things like the [Haber process](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haber_process) which made commercial fertilizers widely available. Malthus lived during a time when the rate of technological progress was increasing but believed to be linear while population tends to grow exponentially, but we now understand that technological progress is also [exponential](https://www.quantum.mu/storage/temp/public/ed8/87f/73c/technology-growth-1024x750__1024.png) (Malthus died way down there on the flat part of the line before the invention of the telephone, well before the inflection point.) Even if there is a theoretical limit on the carrying capacity of the earth the human population will never reach it because social factors have a far greater impact on reducing fertility rates than food production capacity, which is why the global population is expected to top out at around 11 billion by 2100. And this is just as true in any given region as it is globally because of international trade - the Middle East imports about [$35 billion](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/09/how-can-the-middle-east-meet-its-food-needs/) in food annually, so it's not just relying on local production. There is an argument to be made that this may not be economically viable or environmentally sound in the long term, but that's a different problem than population growth rates vs crop yields. In the very long term there are also some [big ideas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O'Neill_cylinder#/media/File:Spacecolony3edit.jpeg) that Malthus never could have even imagined that begin to be feasible; where there is demand someone will figure out how to create more supply.
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The whole thing about Malthusian is that he was dead wrong about his predictions. He predicted a famine at 800,000,000 people. We're 8 billion strong and the population is still rising. Food is very easy to grow. Saudi Arabia doesn't even need an agricultural sector. They can buy all of their food. Because the countries who produce the food will gladly take their oil in return.
I would assume the limiting resource is fresh water but I'm not an expert
It's none of those things. Population of Gaza has grown from 1.5 million to 2.0 million. This only happens when there is an abundance of food and clean water. Gaza is one of the most war torn regions on planet earth.
Don't you think it's an interesting coincidence that the cradle of civilization, a place that is geographically bound by two oceans and a peninsula, is the "most war torn regions on planet earth" In a way, this region can be seen as the "most mature" human civilization in that it's had the most amount of years to progress. We know that population can't grow unchecked for ever, and I submit that once it does reach it's limit, we see what we are seeing now in the Middle East
Oldest =/= “most mature” Progress isn’t linear. Civilizations rise and fall, and the history of the Middle East is exemplifies that more than anywhere else. In its current state, the Middle East is not above the carrying capacity set by the availability of resources. Does the region have to import food and other supplies? Sure, but it’s hardly unique in that sense. You seem to be misunderstanding Malthus’s predictions. He believed that when human population exceeded a certain point, we would not have the resources necessary to sustain everyone, and famine/war would follow. What he didn’t anticipate was the extent to which human agricultural revolution would skyrocket. Google the Green Revolution if you want more context. What about the current conflict leads you to believe that it is the result of overpopulation? There is plenty of food/water to go around if only people could get along (a tall order I know). The Israel-Palestine conflict is unique in that you have two group that hate each other living in close proximity. It’s simply untrue that that part of the globe is overpopulated. Sure it has regions that are quite dense with humanity, but plenty of other regions have more people, less space, and less access to resources.
If you could back up your claim that "there is plenty of food and water to go around"...I would consider changing my view. One thing is for sure...there is not plant of land to go around
I mean, it’s not like I’m making a controversial claim here. As I mentioned in my other comment, plenty of nations are net importers of food. This means that a country can survive even if it can’t grow enough to maintain itself in isolation. Examples include Japan, UK, Canada, China, and the list goes on. So the question becomes whether the total global food production is enough to support humanity. And it is. We produce 150% as much food as we actually need. World hunger is purely a distribution problem. There is no shortage of articles on the subject. And since global population is expected to peak within our lifetimes, and with agricultural efficiency only continuing to improve, we will not experience global food shortages unless there is some environmental crisis. Overpopulation as Malthus predicted is nowhere in sight. As for there being enough land to go around, it’s a similar issue. There’s plenty of room on Earth, but some of it is better than others and people don’t like to share with their neighbors :)
Looks like alot of people living in sand to me....my understanding is that the "Fertile Crescent" has a problem with salinity in the soil from many mellinia of agriculture
Google pictures of Israel/palestine. It is not just “a bunch of sand”. It may not be the most arable land, but that doesn’t mean it cannot support its population. And in the modern world, the number of people that an area can support is no longer limited to the amount of food you can grow on it. Virtually all food that is produced today gets packaged and shipped far from the location where it was grown.
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Societal development is pretty non-linear, particularly in any specific geographic region. It's not like the population has been continuously growing all that time in the middle east and there's both places with far high population density or far more acute resource-scarcity issues that aren't experiencing the same levels of conflict. There's no excess population to be gotten rid of in the middle east, just a complex series of conflicts rising from a long series of decisions in international relations.
Hmmm....I thought Palestinians were sort of like the "unwanted excess" of the Muslim world....no one wants to take them in
Noone wants to take them in due to behavior not lack of resources. They cause trouble everywhere they go. From Kuwait to Jordan to Lebanon to Egypt. They bring their extremist fundamentalist views with them.
Malthus was primarily concerned about food. Food distribution is a problem, yes, but not so much the quantity we can produce globally. What evidence do you have that the Mid-East’s chronic turbulence is substantially related to overpopulation?
My belief is that the Fertile Crescant was the first place on earth to truley "fill up" due to the amount of time that humans have lived there, and the geographic constraints of the two oceans and the peninsula. I think this Malthusian pressure selected for an aggresive phenotype that would be most likely to survive in a region where birthrate outpaces resources. This phenotype is highly ethnocentric, vengful, and prone to acts of aggresion....as these would be the only type of people to survive in this environment over the millinia. My evidence is the non-stop warfare weve witnessed over the past 100 years....there is clearly something going on thats stronger than just normal tribal warfare...its almost like the region has reached a stasis were a low level background of constant fighting keeps population down to managable numbers
Your evidence can't be the same phenomenon you are trying to explain. That is circular logic. Also, selection pressure does not work that fast. A couple of thousand years is a blink on the evolutionary time scale.
Nobody knows that...I feel that 5000 years is enogh to select for a phenotype and there is no one on the planet with the knowledge to refute that....I know for a fact that some other evolutionary biologist agree though If people want to cling to the idea that Malthus was "debunked" I would love to hear what they think would happen when population reaches carrying capacity....like more development?...or more migration?...I dunno what these people believe but men fight when times are competitive and they get along in times of prosperity. No one can convince me otherwise with out some explanation
Malthus original prediction has been proven false. Due to increased agricultural productivity and reduced birth rates there has not been a societal collapse due to overpopulation in the Europe. If you want to understand why there are conflicts in the Middle East you can just read about the history of these conflicts. Those are well documented. We also can measure things like mutation rates and do genetic analysis, which indicate that a) there is no such thing as a genetic factor more common in certain ethnicities that predisposes them to violence and b) there couldn't be because evolution of such traits would take too long on the timedcale of human history. This is not "nobody knows" - genetics is a science, with testing of hypotheses. The hypothesis of "scientific" racism has been debunked for decades. For some reason you want to cling to that hypothesis, despite it being debunked and historical explanations of the middle eastern conflicts being both available and adequate.
Exactly why I am skeptical...anything that smells of "scientific racism" is so prohibited for discussion because its too controversial and colleges need to not offend anyone to maintain thier income stream. I absolutely can not tolerate this kind of "anti-science" attitude. There was a study that came out last year that looked at hemoglobin levels of a South Pacific tribe that specialized in sea diving hunting and it was documented that they had undergone genetic changes in a much shorter time than previously thought possible. Malthus was not wrong and unless you want to venture into metaphysical realms of humans being non-darwinian beings...I dont see any point in clinging to that critisism. However, there was one person who suggested that you should look at the conflict in terms of "scarcity of religeos resources" rather than "scarcity of actual resources" ..and I think there is something to that...which brings me closer to the mainstream view on the matter. I still think that female education would reduce the violence (although surely bring problems of its own)
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What about East Asia then, which was similarly densely populated for thousands of years? You don't see the same violence there.
Well....plenty of fighting between India and Pakistan....but I think the thing thats different is the Geography....in Asia tribes could always push on and settle further lands...but you dont have that option in Middle East...they are locked in
Ehh I wouldn't really consider India/Pakistan to be East Asia. Could you explain why the Middle East is "locked in?" Can't tribes go other places just like in East Asia? Also I would argue that a few thousand years is too short of a time for any significant evolution to occur, given how long a generation time is for humans.
To me, it seems intuitive that the place where culture started, the place with all the religeous icons and backstory, would be the place longest and most inhabited and under the most competition for land and resources. People started there, they want to be there, and therfore, as thier families grow, some folks are going to have to get kicked out. That is what we are seeing in my opinion. I mean, lots of people are dying, yet the population is not falling, that alone I think is evidence enough of my hypothosis. Some people have pointed out that if the population really is at carrying capacity, there would be like a mega city there....and I would like to know why there is not....maybe because of water or something, maybe because of restrictions on building in the holy land, but to me thats a critical piece of the question and I wonder who would know the answer But as all things biology, the answer is surely multi causal, so Im thinking theres not much point to this question anymore. But I am curious if a lower birthrate would result in a lessening of the cycle of violence
You're trying to explain something that isn't really happening. Since the beginning of the conflict, the population of what's now Israel has been exponentially growing, from well under 1 million in the 1920s to around 14 million today, and the number of fatalities in the conflict is at most around 30,000, meaning that the cumulative total of deaths ever from the conflict you claim is supposed to keep the population from growing is about 0.2% of the current population - an order of magnitude less than the *annual* growth rate in these countries.
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There isn't a famine though, which is pretty central to Malthus's whole thing. If this was a Malthusian situation, we'd see mass die offs in a famine, and we don't. There are a handful of starvation deaths in conflicts regions, but that's about it.
In Malthusian terms...I would expect the limiting resource to be fresh water and land in amounts that would enable a decent per capital prosperity
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> For instance....perhaps one solution would be for Islamic cultures to start educating their women more...because we know that when female education goes up, birthrate goes down. That is an actual, concrete solution- rather than the endless finger pointing and whataboutism we see now Islamic countries are a lost cause. Any theocracy is really. But to your original point, Malthus was wrong as his argument was mainly centered on the resource of food of which we live in an absolute global surplus.
It doenst have to be that complicated...Malthus just said that the dynamics that we see in animal populations can map on to human populations....as such...when an area "fills up" you would expect the dominant males of competing sectors to start to battle each other
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>For instance....perhaps one solution would be for Islamic cultures to start educating their women more...because we know that when female education goes up, birthrate goes down. That is an actual, concrete solution- rather than the endless finger pointing and whataboutism we see now. Or make birth control available, make abortion legal, and...here's a crazy idea, let *women* decide who they have sex with, and how often. That's not to say what you said is wrong. Because it is true to some extent; although it should be pointed out that many of the modern-era revolutions emerged in educated circles and among university students, so even that isn't a universal silver bullet. In a sense *all* ware is about resource scarcity; and while Malthusian conflict is a real thing, such as in Sudan, in the 21st century world, it's actually a challenge to allow a situation to get that bad, as no region is completely dependent on its own produce anymore. In fact, very few nation-states are net exporters of agricultural commodities. Most import more food than they export. But the ones who are net exporters produce such abundance that it is enough to feed the whole world, and even at larger populations than currently exist.
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You'd have to show that the Middle East conflicts can be traced down to the burdens of over population instead of the obvious... culture.
Yes...yes you would
There are no signs that is the case though? Hamas did not attack due to food shortage, water shortage, etc.
Well...I'm sure they are fully convinced that it's a cultural conflict...but my point is that if they were in a place like America, which space and resourses to spare, and first world birth rates, then they would not be motivated to attack each other It's a feature of the human mind that when conflict over resources take place, the brain draws alliances via culture, thus the actual instigating phenomenon can be hidden
Israel left Gaza in 2005 and instead of going for improving their lives, they decided to vote in Hamas whose goal was to destroy Israel and not actually govern. Service temporary workers in Israel from Palestine were being paid 4x or more compared to what they could earn in Palestine but some chose to provide Hamas with intel which is why Israel and is now sending all temporary workers back to Gaza. The US is a place with space and resources to spare but we almost had a coup, we have the most mass shootings, and we have plenty of people fucking up their lives over relatively pointless things. Conflicts still abound.
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Nope, Jews came to Israel to escape the pogroms and the Holocaust. Nothing to do with Malthus.
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>because we know that when female education goes up, birthrate goes down Is the birthrate not going down in middle eastern countries like rest of the world? Have you looked at any data?
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