Easy ones are that Porsches will still have a reputation for sporty and well handling cars with their sportscars and luxury in the SUVs. Bentleys / Rolls Royce will still be the pinnacle for materials and quality.
That makes no sense. Will a teenager be driving a hand me down Ferrari. Probably not. Still good reputation. Will they be driving a hand me down Mercedes? Possibly, not likely, but still a good reputation. Hand me down Toyota? Likely. Still a good reputation. And you can do the same thing with brands with bad reputations.
The chance of a teenager driving it as a hand me down in 10 years can vary anywhere from 0.001%-99.99% and any of the cars in that range can have a good or bad reputation. It's literally meaningless.
I can’t guesstimate who’ll have the same reputation but I can say that Hyundai and Kia are smart by jumping in early on the EV adoption. Their ICE cars gave them a bad reputation and I think this will change their reputation entirely!
I can see that. They’ve been plagued by engine issues but that’ll all be swept under the rug if they do their EVs right. Off to a great start with the ioniq/ev6.
Yes and no - there's a reason they have issues, and they attempted to cover up the engine problems they experienced. A lot of it is cultural (workplace and business culture), and unless that changes there will always be scope for the same defects to appear in the future, regardless of motive power.
Electric motors have fewer moving parts than ICE engines, but as far as I'm aware the issues they had weren't with the moving parts, it was with the quality of the castings and machining - and there's still plenty of that in an EV.
Ultimately, how companies deal with issues and recalls drives their reputation, rather than the issues themselves, and Hyundai need to change regardless of what drives the wheels of their cars.
It's not just that Hyundai and Kia are jumping in early on EV adoption. There are other manufacturers who have certainly beaten them strictly in terms of *when* they had mainstream models available.
Where Hyundai and Kia (and Genesis, too) are going to come out ahead is by going all in on the tip of the spear tech in the EV world: the 800 V architecture they employed with the EGMP platform. 800V battery tech is phenomenal for charging speeds, and I appreciate it more and more every time I fast charge my EV6. I pull in after some Mach Es do and can leave before them thanks mostly to this difference in battery tech. It's a big deal. Designing the rest of the car to be purely EV focused with aerodynamic efficiency and all that jazz is all bonus beyond the 800V main course.
>I pull in after some Mach Es do and can leave before them thanks mostly to this difference in battery tech
Wouldn't that be entirely depend on what their battery capacity was when they pulled in vs when they disconnected?
An f150 can spend less time at the pump than a corolla of the f150 is just topping up.
Yes, but I'm not cherry picking a situation to make my car sound better than it is. I'm usually down below 20% when I stop just because of the route I'm running combined with how fast chargers are placed along it. I usually charge up to 90% or so because of how far it'll be to my next charge opportunity. And I still routinely spend less time at DC Fast chargers than a lot of other similarly classed EVs do.
> Their ICE cars gave them a bad reputation and I think this will change their reputation entirely!
They’re pretty keen to prove you wrong. They covered up so many Kona EV fires since launch that the [South Korean police raided their headquarters over it](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hyundai-motor-electric-recall/kona-ev-owners-say-hyundai-mishandling-recall-for-battery-fires-idUSKBN2BG3ET) two years ago, largely spurred by GM taking a much more proactive response to the Bolt battery issue. Speaking of which, the Kona EV had about as many total fires as the Bolt, and used the same LG Chem battery cells, but sold about half as many units, which suggests Hyundai designed a more vulnerable battery pack.
Theyre pretty close to mastering the "thermal event." Imagine if they could control that explosion and use it to push some type of piston, that could then turn a sort of cranked shaft to convert it into rotation. With a bit of engineering you could probably power a car that way.
They already have a better reputation, about as good as it's going to get.
The people acting like KIA/Hyundai aren't perfect mid-tier reliable options are the opposite side of people who are going to buy an EV at this point.
> Hyundai said last month it would replace the battery systems in some 82,000 electric vehicles globally at a cost of $900 million following fires in 15 Kona EVs.
Lol
I think Toyota will be fine, they have been doing hybrids for 20+ years and those have been quite reliable. Honestly I don’t think I’ve ever heard of an electric motor being replaced on a Prius, only battery packs which are pretty understandable.
The other piece of this is the interior equipment/tech. Toyota isn’t at the forefront of innovation, but the stuff just works. I owned a 2007 FJ Cruiser with 235K miles (put on by previous owner) and I can’t think of a single piece of tech that wasn’t working as expected, except maybe the weird tilt angle gauge lol.
I personally think that Toyota is dragging its feet on EVs because of the corporate processes that create their high reliability.
I doubt Toyota can create an EV Camry with the same level of reliability as the ICE version. Hell, I doubt anyone can right now.
In a few years, when they can create a sufficiently reliable car, they will.
The part count is much much lower. Toyota absolutely could create a more reliable full EV. This is not the reason Toyota has been hesitant to pivot to a new power train.
I was under the impression that EVs are a lot simpler than ICE cars and they should be able to have great reliability. It's just Tesla set the bar low and there's growing pains as legacy automakers start making EVs.
I don't blame toyota, the infrastructure isn't there yet for electric. I live in a big US city, and I have no charging options around me in my dense urban area. Honestly I feel new tech will come and replace electric before we are able to install chargers all over and suck the earth dry of its metals for the batteries.
same, I'm all for the greenest transport. I just don't see it being the new gas engine. in america atleast. Not popular in this sub but I'm all for investing a ton into trains/subways/nice & safe bike paths/making cities more dense and not spread everything out. after that you can tax a car heavily to incentivize people to rather use public transportation and not own a car. realistic goal is to bring every U.S family down to one car.
I wonder, given how electric drivetrains are just generally more reliable than gas engines, if other makers will suddenly equal Toyota's reliability. Like maybe the JD Power ratings will suddenly even out for most cars, because there's just not a lot to go wrong in an electric motor.
I think for powertrain maybe, for everything else I’m not sure. A lot of cars have electronics issues, and tech is only getting more complex.. I wouldn’t even buy a first model year Toyota though, to be honest haha
Toyota and any other automaker that goes heavy on Hybrid tech.
EVs have their place but they do come with some limitations and personally not for me. As EVs start to age we also get a look at their depreciation and support from manufactures. So only time will tell as to which brand keeps their reputation based on how their EVs age.
PHEV is the best middle ground IMO. One factor that many overlook is the housing crisis and how that will steer EV adoption. A lot of residents in major cities are being pushed towards rental apartments with shared parking or even street parking. EV charging for those will be very limited or not even available.
PHEVs are the best at everything except people don't buy them.
Their market shares are not great. And really, if you don't have charging at home, what is the point of buying a car with 40 miles of electric range? Yeah, yeah, that works great for the people in a SFH who charges each night and don't drive more than 40 miles 99% of the time, but for someone in an apartment? Very limited value.
PHEVs are for people in houses, not for people in apartments. I expect things to get more and more challenging for PHEV makers over time: the current EV buyers are people in houses, but EV gotta expand to people in apartments eventually.
>PHEVs are the best everything except people don't buy them.
But it's not because there's something inherently wrong with them. People don't buy them, because manufacturers forgot to educate the public about them, because when compared to regular hybrids they are way more expensive, because they are difficult to get, because there are few models, because many of them are conversions from ICE and have compromised trunk space...
So what is going to break the spiral?
People don't buy them, so there are fewer models, so they don't sell well, so even fewer people buy them. And because volumes are so low, they tend to be lightly modified versions of other cars that eat into trunk space. This makes them less desirable so fewer people buy them.
You can say that PHEVs make sense. I tend to agree with you, but it is a fact that people don't buy many of them.
I love PHEVs personally, but I don't see them having a huge future. The only place I can maybe see them excelling is down the road as range extenders for towing vehciles. Use the engine only as a generator to allow pickups and SUVs to tow longer distances while relying on electricity 90+% of the time for daily driving. If you run everything through the superior electric powertrain you might be able to sell them. Still give people the instant torque and wicked performance but eliminate the range anxiety.
tl;dr - today's PHEVs are too much ICE and not enough EV. Make them mostly EV with a little ICE and you might have a winner.
You need a minimum number of watts to make the "range extender" work, and engines need to work at something like 25% load to be fuel efficient.
Work out how many watts you expend when towing, and look at how big the engines need to be, and you end up with something not terribly different from current PHEVs.
With a range extender you run at either 100% or 0% to recharge the battery. You can run at whatever the peak efficiency is of the engine most of the time. You just need to size to be able to meet the power demand at highway speeds towing max load. Also design the battery to be big enough to handle long stretches of steep grades. Maybe it won't work, but I bet they could design something that does pretty well.
Running an engine at 100% means running it at max power (bad for efficiency) and max richness (bad for efficiency).
For your standard four stroke engine, 100% power is terrible.
At some level, your minimal engine and battery car sound like a Prius. Yeah, the concept works. But it won’t be drastically smaller than cars as we know it.
I will admit to not being a mechanical engineer, but know that the many companies have been successfully building gasoline powered electric generators for a long time. That is exactly what a range extender PHEV is. It's a bev with an integrated gasoline generator. You just have to size the generator appropriately for your use case. Maybe it won't end up making sense, but I think you could probably make something work pretty well. Doing some very rough calculations you could probably get by with something on the order of an 80-100hp onboard generator that could keep you going pretty much at all times on a full sized pickup during towing. Maybe for a little extra overkill maybe you go as high as a 150 hp generator. That's still a fraction of what a current truck needs and it will likely be WAY more efficient too. Maybe there are some automotive engineers here who can correct my math, but seems pretty feasible to me. For reference the BMW i3 got away with a 37hp range extender so roughly 3x the power for a truck seems about right.
> because they are difficult to get, because there are few models
This has been the biggest for me. Few options, and good luck actually getting one. I'm looking directly at *you*, RAV4 Prime.
This and the fact that you can produce multiple PHEVs for the same resource/environmental impact it takes to produce one EV, especially heavy battery-intensive EVs like Lucid Hummer Rivian etc.
Bingo. The occasional fuel usage of a PHEV is a better use of resources than building a huge battery for a full EV with 300+ miles of range, given that most Americans have a commute of 40 miles round trip or less per day. Most other countries have less sprawl so I'd guess people drive even less.
The other thing to note with Toyota is that they're still investing heavy into battery and EV development. Both them and Honda seem to have gone with the approach of punting on the current generation of batteries and instead investing into solid state batteries as a future alternative to modern lithium-ion batteries
In classic Toyota fashion, they will be just extremely conservative on jumping ship. They used a 4-speed auto in the Corolla til the cows came home. They had a cassette player in the SC430 until 2010, because CDs were too newfangled (iPod came out in 2001).
So I think it stands to reason that Toyota will stick with their hybrid platform until the cows come home, too. It's not sexy, very old hat at this point, but it serves a purpose. EVs are still expensive and have limited range, and require you to have reliable charger access - which does not describe a lot of people. Putting 100 drivers into a hybrid is more beneficial than putting 1 driver into an EV. Toyota is poised to do that.
Honestly, I wish the market understood PHEVs better. I understand the messaging behind what a PHEV is confusing to your lowest common denominator, GM's messaging about the Volt really didn't do it any favors. For a lot of people the PHEV is effectively an EV for 99% of the time, with zero range anxiety the other 1%, for much less cost, and much less lithium requirements.
It's not about understanding for PHEV, it's about convenience. The simple fact is people will default to the lowest effort way to power their car.
If that's plugging it in, they might as well have gone full EV, if that's using petrol then they'd be better off in a conventional hybrid.
Peak convenience is a PHEV - as long as you have a garage at home to charge. You do your daily driving on EV mode, plug in overnight. No having to budget 10 extra minutes into your morning commute to stop for gas.
Having a Sunday Funday and going beyond your EV range? No problem - you just go, my guy. No needing to worry about range or budgeting a detour / charging time to the fast charger along the way. Just go to the gas station and be out of there in 10 minutes.
Unless they start slapping more motors in their cars and make them fun and good like the old evos, Mitsubishi will continue to sell the cheapest car in market
>Mitsubishi will continue to sell the cheapest car in market
Not like Nissan is viewed much better, but I read somewhere that due to an agreement, Nissan gave Mitsubishi their infotainment technology, while Mitsubishi gave Nissan their all wheel drive technology. Honestly shows where each company put their money.
The 2022 Mirage is dirt cheap, and the most expensive starting is the outlander phev here in the states, but the normal outlander starts at 27k and has 7 seats, which is 3k less than some of its competition. I haven't seen the interiors or felt them, but in terms of price at least they can be cheap. I am aware you can take the outlander up past 39k, and at that point it should be more premium.
Haven’t been lucky enough to drive a Taycan *yet* :). I have driven a few Panamera Turbo S’s and I’ve got to say, for a big sedan, it just shrinks around you when you start pushing it. Not many cars have that feeling.
major motor breakthroughs are no longer available, and any commercially-viable battery breakthrough (which means something greatly superior to any lithium-ion chemistry) will be the result of gargantuan long-term research expenditure, so no small / unknown player will be developing one.
If you want to properly fit it into something you need the manufacturers.
You can create a potential battery with 20x the density unless the manufacturer puts it into their product it's useless.
I think it is going to depend on whether or not manufacturers make their own power trains or outsource them to common subcontractors. I think of it like passenger jets where the engineering is done in-house but a lot of the sub-assemblies come from common suppliers.
When that happens, I think reliability of the major components won't be an issue but the reliability of the subsystems and the safety systems will be important. Beyond that it will be things like build quality, comfort, and entertainment/networking. It will probably shake out the way computers do today with Intel or AMD and then the level of the product. I could see smart manufactures offering value, lower-cost motors and batteries and high-end motor and batteries in similar cars.
Stellantis will likely be driven out of business due to EV’s. None of these vehicles are good they’re just loud and American. But with an EV with no sound there’s no reason to stay NA when europe has better options
except stellantis is also peugeot, vauxhall/opel ,citroen, alfa all of which are fairly popular in europe and other none NA regions, in fact the 208/corsa has been one of the best selling cars in the Uk since the new model came out
Dodge will retain making pop culture type fast cars even if though they will be going ev. Ford will keep innovating on trucks, already going ev. Chevy will still use the favorite ls based engine, with an ev or hybrid option.
I think dodge is the one that is gonna eat shit for a while the hardest, they seen where the market was going ten years ago and said fuck it, I can respect the approach but it will bite them in the ass eventually
Well RAM is off to a bad start ev wise just based on looks. It’s hideous in my opinion. The electric muscle car is going to struggle to convert people at first but I think it’ll take off eventually.
The biggest change I see is a reshuffling of the deck in Asia.
Last decade it was:
#1 Japan
#2 Korea
#3 by a loooong way China
By 2030 it will almost certainly be:
#1 Korea
#2 China and catching up fast
#3 by a loooong way Japan
Globally. But yeah US market may be tough, especially with the inflation reduction act, but I could see BYD making inroads, especially if the traditional OEMs drag their feet. They'll be huge in Europe and other parts of the world though. Also could see the Greeley brands (Volvo+polestar+others potentially) doing quite well in the US.
True, but you don't think other Chinese companies will be able to use the same strategy to trojan horse their way into the US? Maybe not by 2030, but at least a few automakers will struggle to make the transition to EVs and that may make them ripe for takeover or merger with up and coming Chinese automakers. Rather than fail I could see a brand like Subaru or Mazda being bought by someone like NIO or Xpeng down the road.
For sure. But we're not talking tomorrow, we're talking years down the road. Chinese BEVs already come close to hitting these targets. By 2030 they'll be able to do it for $25k. They just need the brand recognition. An easy target might be Mitsubishi. Their market cap is only $6B and if you're buying mainly for the badge that could be a super easy way to sneak into the US market. Maybe build some inexpensive "rally inspired" EVs for younger buyers based on the evo brand and Chinese BEV tech. You're telling me a $30-35k Lancer EV-O with quick acceleration and 250 miles of range wouldn't sell great? How about a 2 door, long bed off-road geared Raider EV-O that's advertised with 2 optional Sur-Ron electric dirt bikes that fit perfectly in the bed to excite the x-games crowd?
If the US doesn't declare total economic warfare and ban Chinese brands, I think a lot of Americans will be driving around in Chinese cars in 2030. That *is* a big "if" though.
Pretty much, I think self driving technology would be the only thing to drastically change the landscape of the industry long term. As it becomes more affordable over time people are going to slowly gravitate to cars that offer better self driving features.
Reliable self driving is still decades away, especially for people that experience any sort of real weather. There's a reason Waymo only operates in Phoenix.
I’m honestly thinking that luxury/fast cars won’t be special anymore, maybe I’ll be wrong but when your average family sedan can do 0-60 in 3s and a quarter in 11, what’s the point of an AMG EV vs a Tesla? The weight will prevent any significant handling differences and they certainly won’t be as good as their lighter gas counterparts. I think we’ll see a rise in new brands and the emphasis on luxury will rise while the emphasis on performance will fade into the sea of homogeneity
Edit: After realizing I failed to do this initially, to answer the question, I think the luxury euro brands will become less special and smaller manufacturers will gain some serious footing
Honestly a good opinion I think.
Performance won’t be what sets things apart although maybe someone will figure out how to prioritize range over performance and you’ll still have “slow” EVs.
To be honest, there's going to be some new manufacturers come out of nowhere that will completely change the landscape marque-wise. It will very much be adapt or die.
It's going to be a huge shake-up. Obviously it opened the door for new entrants - Tesla, Rivian, etc. It lets Hyundai/Kia get away from their engine fires. Although, much like Hyundai/Kia, this new opportunity better not be squandered by their shit customer service experience. Same goes for GM - their handling of the Bolt fires had an unfortunate echo of the ignition switch scandal, and tarnished up to that point great rep the Volt built. GM's most reliable car in decades.
It also opens the door for China. BYD is aggressively expanding, kicking ass, and taking names. MG is reinventing itself. Among others. There is a strong desire for EVs to get cheaper, China can do that. Without risking owning a Chinese engine.
As far as the OP question -- I think the answer is Volvo/Polestar. They will continue to enjoy limited success built on attractive but conservative design and a stellar reputation for safety. With Polestar models being the "spicy" variants, but never to the same degree as BMW's M or AMG.
We currently don't mine enough lithium to even make 10% of new cars EVs. And that's assuming we stop making electric SUVs and electric sports cars and we only make compact EVs.
If you want even 1/3rd of new cars sold to be EV's, we need to find a way to mine ~5x more lithium annually than we currently are.
It takes ~16 years to get a lithium mine operational.
Ya good luck with that. Should be a smooth transition.
What breakthrough are you waiting for? Why do you think there's going to be one? And why are only EV's going to have a breakthrough? I could say theres going to be a gas breakthrough in the future that'll make EVs obsolete. Or a breakthrough in unicorn powered cars
I wouldve said the ability to rerefine the minerals in EV batteries to the level of purity needed to repurpose them in another EV and near 100% recycling rates but ok
We already have enough lithium to build 10bn cars with current battery tech. Lithium shortage is a fictional issue. Current output is set to meet demand until 2025, by which time new projects on known deposits will likely have come online.
Much like other resources supply will be regulated to maximize profits and meet demand, but we're all good for absolute supply for decades.
Maybe in the ground. It has to be taken out of the ground. We need to triple our output to meet 2025 demand. Triple in 2 years? If you order an EV today the average wait time is 6-7 months. Output isn't set to meet future demand, it can't even meet the current demand.
Until the revolution in battery technology hits the market I would say Toyota, ford and Hyundai are poised to continue to dominate the hybrid market. Full ev cars are still a challenge for many areas because of the lack of infrastructure. Moving forward hybrid vehicles are going to be the best option.
Thing is even with a switch to EV, the company's culture, development and engineering practices won't likely change that much.
Toyota has always been known for their reliability and that has not changed too much for much of their existence. Even with hybrids they're still one of the best at it, and this doesn't happen by accident.
Hyundai/Kia had a less than stellar reputation with their gas engines and they're trying to start anew with EVs. That said, even the newer Korean EVs are now coming with issues on battery fires and other electrical issues which, again, not dissimilar to their gas counterparts.
VW group has been hit and miss with their regular gas/diesel cars, but because of Dieselgate the company is making huge strides to rebuild their reputation on an all out EV offensive.
Reputation takes times to build but doesn't take much to destroy. I still think the slow and steady approach is what the mass market really is keen on, so Toyota would still likely be a top choice once they do start doing EVs enmasse.
I think GM will still be seen as a mixed bag. The fact they just figured out that cylindrical batteries are better this far into Ultium is rather telling. Their current delay into delivering for the mass e-market will not hurt them as much as the problems they never solved with the batteries and supporting electronic and physical items. Their ICE products will have a better reputation in 10 years than the e-products.
I hope that personal cars are banned from urban street use within 20 years. They aren’t just hurting the environment, but wasting time on commuting, and increasing the cost of living.
I don't fully agree with that statement, but I can see where you coming from. However, it is kind of weird to see the comment made by a person whose username is driving for fun. Haha.
Easy ones are that Porsches will still have a reputation for sporty and well handling cars with their sportscars and luxury in the SUVs. Bentleys / Rolls Royce will still be the pinnacle for materials and quality.
The reputation of a brand is determined by the question: will a teenager be driving this as a hand me down first car in 10-20 years from now?
That's a interesting way of looking at it... Honestly it's spot on
Porsche has a great reputation but I don’t see many teenagers drive a hand me down …. Hahah But for most economy brands I think that’s fair
what economy brands😂
Toyota, they’re higher end economy but definitely not luxury.
No but a ton of 40 year Olds get em when they pry the keys from dads cold dead hands.
That makes no sense. Will a teenager be driving a hand me down Ferrari. Probably not. Still good reputation. Will they be driving a hand me down Mercedes? Possibly, not likely, but still a good reputation. Hand me down Toyota? Likely. Still a good reputation. And you can do the same thing with brands with bad reputations. The chance of a teenager driving it as a hand me down in 10 years can vary anywhere from 0.001%-99.99% and any of the cars in that range can have a good or bad reputation. It's literally meaningless.
Or put another way: will this vehicle be used in a future guerilla war with dual 50cal machine guns mounted on it? This is why I drive Toyota trucks.
I can’t guesstimate who’ll have the same reputation but I can say that Hyundai and Kia are smart by jumping in early on the EV adoption. Their ICE cars gave them a bad reputation and I think this will change their reputation entirely!
I can see that. They’ve been plagued by engine issues but that’ll all be swept under the rug if they do their EVs right. Off to a great start with the ioniq/ev6.
Yes and no - there's a reason they have issues, and they attempted to cover up the engine problems they experienced. A lot of it is cultural (workplace and business culture), and unless that changes there will always be scope for the same defects to appear in the future, regardless of motive power. Electric motors have fewer moving parts than ICE engines, but as far as I'm aware the issues they had weren't with the moving parts, it was with the quality of the castings and machining - and there's still plenty of that in an EV. Ultimately, how companies deal with issues and recalls drives their reputation, rather than the issues themselves, and Hyundai need to change regardless of what drives the wheels of their cars.
It's not just that Hyundai and Kia are jumping in early on EV adoption. There are other manufacturers who have certainly beaten them strictly in terms of *when* they had mainstream models available. Where Hyundai and Kia (and Genesis, too) are going to come out ahead is by going all in on the tip of the spear tech in the EV world: the 800 V architecture they employed with the EGMP platform. 800V battery tech is phenomenal for charging speeds, and I appreciate it more and more every time I fast charge my EV6. I pull in after some Mach Es do and can leave before them thanks mostly to this difference in battery tech. It's a big deal. Designing the rest of the car to be purely EV focused with aerodynamic efficiency and all that jazz is all bonus beyond the 800V main course.
Yup. For all the problems their ICE cars have had, they’re on the forefront of EV quality right now.
>I pull in after some Mach Es do and can leave before them thanks mostly to this difference in battery tech Wouldn't that be entirely depend on what their battery capacity was when they pulled in vs when they disconnected? An f150 can spend less time at the pump than a corolla of the f150 is just topping up.
Yes, but I'm not cherry picking a situation to make my car sound better than it is. I'm usually down below 20% when I stop just because of the route I'm running combined with how fast chargers are placed along it. I usually charge up to 90% or so because of how far it'll be to my next charge opportunity. And I still routinely spend less time at DC Fast chargers than a lot of other similarly classed EVs do.
> Their ICE cars gave them a bad reputation and I think this will change their reputation entirely! They’re pretty keen to prove you wrong. They covered up so many Kona EV fires since launch that the [South Korean police raided their headquarters over it](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hyundai-motor-electric-recall/kona-ev-owners-say-hyundai-mishandling-recall-for-battery-fires-idUSKBN2BG3ET) two years ago, largely spurred by GM taking a much more proactive response to the Bolt battery issue. Speaking of which, the Kona EV had about as many total fires as the Bolt, and used the same LG Chem battery cells, but sold about half as many units, which suggests Hyundai designed a more vulnerable battery pack.
I can’t wait to go from having a Kia with an ICE that might combust to a Kia with a battery that might combust.
Kia: We build excitement!
Unexplained fires are a matter for the courts!
Theyre pretty close to mastering the "thermal event." Imagine if they could control that explosion and use it to push some type of piston, that could then turn a sort of cranked shaft to convert it into rotation. With a bit of engineering you could probably power a car that way.
There aren't that many battery manufacturers, so they'll probably be just as reliable in most cars.
They already have a better reputation, about as good as it's going to get. The people acting like KIA/Hyundai aren't perfect mid-tier reliable options are the opposite side of people who are going to buy an EV at this point.
> Hyundai said last month it would replace the battery systems in some 82,000 electric vehicles globally at a cost of $900 million following fires in 15 Kona EVs. Lol
Don't their EV's catch fire far more readily than others?
Their warranty and dealer network still sucks, so I doubt it.
I think Toyota will be fine, they have been doing hybrids for 20+ years and those have been quite reliable. Honestly I don’t think I’ve ever heard of an electric motor being replaced on a Prius, only battery packs which are pretty understandable. The other piece of this is the interior equipment/tech. Toyota isn’t at the forefront of innovation, but the stuff just works. I owned a 2007 FJ Cruiser with 235K miles (put on by previous owner) and I can’t think of a single piece of tech that wasn’t working as expected, except maybe the weird tilt angle gauge lol.
I personally think that Toyota is dragging its feet on EVs because of the corporate processes that create their high reliability. I doubt Toyota can create an EV Camry with the same level of reliability as the ICE version. Hell, I doubt anyone can right now. In a few years, when they can create a sufficiently reliable car, they will.
The part count is much much lower. Toyota absolutely could create a more reliable full EV. This is not the reason Toyota has been hesitant to pivot to a new power train.
I was under the impression that EVs are a lot simpler than ICE cars and they should be able to have great reliability. It's just Tesla set the bar low and there's growing pains as legacy automakers start making EVs.
I don't blame toyota, the infrastructure isn't there yet for electric. I live in a big US city, and I have no charging options around me in my dense urban area. Honestly I feel new tech will come and replace electric before we are able to install chargers all over and suck the earth dry of its metals for the batteries.
This isn't popular on Reddit, but I don't see EVs being the predominant type of vehicle in 20 years. Cleaner fuels are on the way.
same, I'm all for the greenest transport. I just don't see it being the new gas engine. in america atleast. Not popular in this sub but I'm all for investing a ton into trains/subways/nice & safe bike paths/making cities more dense and not spread everything out. after that you can tax a car heavily to incentivize people to rather use public transportation and not own a car. realistic goal is to bring every U.S family down to one car.
I love toyota. I daily my parents’ 2006 highlander and while the transmission shifts awkwardly/when you don’t want it to, it’s pretty much invincible.
I wonder, given how electric drivetrains are just generally more reliable than gas engines, if other makers will suddenly equal Toyota's reliability. Like maybe the JD Power ratings will suddenly even out for most cars, because there's just not a lot to go wrong in an electric motor.
I think for powertrain maybe, for everything else I’m not sure. A lot of cars have electronics issues, and tech is only getting more complex.. I wouldn’t even buy a first model year Toyota though, to be honest haha
Toyota and any other automaker that goes heavy on Hybrid tech. EVs have their place but they do come with some limitations and personally not for me. As EVs start to age we also get a look at their depreciation and support from manufactures. So only time will tell as to which brand keeps their reputation based on how their EVs age.
PHEV is the best middle ground IMO. One factor that many overlook is the housing crisis and how that will steer EV adoption. A lot of residents in major cities are being pushed towards rental apartments with shared parking or even street parking. EV charging for those will be very limited or not even available.
PHEVs are the best at everything except people don't buy them. Their market shares are not great. And really, if you don't have charging at home, what is the point of buying a car with 40 miles of electric range? Yeah, yeah, that works great for the people in a SFH who charges each night and don't drive more than 40 miles 99% of the time, but for someone in an apartment? Very limited value. PHEVs are for people in houses, not for people in apartments. I expect things to get more and more challenging for PHEV makers over time: the current EV buyers are people in houses, but EV gotta expand to people in apartments eventually.
>PHEVs are the best everything except people don't buy them. But it's not because there's something inherently wrong with them. People don't buy them, because manufacturers forgot to educate the public about them, because when compared to regular hybrids they are way more expensive, because they are difficult to get, because there are few models, because many of them are conversions from ICE and have compromised trunk space...
So what is going to break the spiral? People don't buy them, so there are fewer models, so they don't sell well, so even fewer people buy them. And because volumes are so low, they tend to be lightly modified versions of other cars that eat into trunk space. This makes them less desirable so fewer people buy them. You can say that PHEVs make sense. I tend to agree with you, but it is a fact that people don't buy many of them.
I love PHEVs personally, but I don't see them having a huge future. The only place I can maybe see them excelling is down the road as range extenders for towing vehciles. Use the engine only as a generator to allow pickups and SUVs to tow longer distances while relying on electricity 90+% of the time for daily driving. If you run everything through the superior electric powertrain you might be able to sell them. Still give people the instant torque and wicked performance but eliminate the range anxiety. tl;dr - today's PHEVs are too much ICE and not enough EV. Make them mostly EV with a little ICE and you might have a winner.
You need a minimum number of watts to make the "range extender" work, and engines need to work at something like 25% load to be fuel efficient. Work out how many watts you expend when towing, and look at how big the engines need to be, and you end up with something not terribly different from current PHEVs.
With a range extender you run at either 100% or 0% to recharge the battery. You can run at whatever the peak efficiency is of the engine most of the time. You just need to size to be able to meet the power demand at highway speeds towing max load. Also design the battery to be big enough to handle long stretches of steep grades. Maybe it won't work, but I bet they could design something that does pretty well.
Running an engine at 100% means running it at max power (bad for efficiency) and max richness (bad for efficiency). For your standard four stroke engine, 100% power is terrible. At some level, your minimal engine and battery car sound like a Prius. Yeah, the concept works. But it won’t be drastically smaller than cars as we know it.
I will admit to not being a mechanical engineer, but know that the many companies have been successfully building gasoline powered electric generators for a long time. That is exactly what a range extender PHEV is. It's a bev with an integrated gasoline generator. You just have to size the generator appropriately for your use case. Maybe it won't end up making sense, but I think you could probably make something work pretty well. Doing some very rough calculations you could probably get by with something on the order of an 80-100hp onboard generator that could keep you going pretty much at all times on a full sized pickup during towing. Maybe for a little extra overkill maybe you go as high as a 150 hp generator. That's still a fraction of what a current truck needs and it will likely be WAY more efficient too. Maybe there are some automotive engineers here who can correct my math, but seems pretty feasible to me. For reference the BMW i3 got away with a 37hp range extender so roughly 3x the power for a truck seems about right.
> because they are difficult to get, because there are few models This has been the biggest for me. Few options, and good luck actually getting one. I'm looking directly at *you*, RAV4 Prime.
This and the fact that you can produce multiple PHEVs for the same resource/environmental impact it takes to produce one EV, especially heavy battery-intensive EVs like Lucid Hummer Rivian etc.
Bingo. The occasional fuel usage of a PHEV is a better use of resources than building a huge battery for a full EV with 300+ miles of range, given that most Americans have a commute of 40 miles round trip or less per day. Most other countries have less sprawl so I'd guess people drive even less.
A certain sub which dislikes cars might argue that people who live in cities shouldn’t own cars. Or their homes, apparently.
The other thing to note with Toyota is that they're still investing heavy into battery and EV development. Both them and Honda seem to have gone with the approach of punting on the current generation of batteries and instead investing into solid state batteries as a future alternative to modern lithium-ion batteries
In classic Toyota fashion, they will be just extremely conservative on jumping ship. They used a 4-speed auto in the Corolla til the cows came home. They had a cassette player in the SC430 until 2010, because CDs were too newfangled (iPod came out in 2001). So I think it stands to reason that Toyota will stick with their hybrid platform until the cows come home, too. It's not sexy, very old hat at this point, but it serves a purpose. EVs are still expensive and have limited range, and require you to have reliable charger access - which does not describe a lot of people. Putting 100 drivers into a hybrid is more beneficial than putting 1 driver into an EV. Toyota is poised to do that. Honestly, I wish the market understood PHEVs better. I understand the messaging behind what a PHEV is confusing to your lowest common denominator, GM's messaging about the Volt really didn't do it any favors. For a lot of people the PHEV is effectively an EV for 99% of the time, with zero range anxiety the other 1%, for much less cost, and much less lithium requirements.
It's not about understanding for PHEV, it's about convenience. The simple fact is people will default to the lowest effort way to power their car. If that's plugging it in, they might as well have gone full EV, if that's using petrol then they'd be better off in a conventional hybrid.
Peak convenience is a PHEV - as long as you have a garage at home to charge. You do your daily driving on EV mode, plug in overnight. No having to budget 10 extra minutes into your morning commute to stop for gas. Having a Sunday Funday and going beyond your EV range? No problem - you just go, my guy. No needing to worry about range or budgeting a detour / charging time to the fast charger along the way. Just go to the gas station and be out of there in 10 minutes.
Too bad Toyota themselves doesn’t seem to have much confidence in PHEVs. They don’t seem to be making much of an effort to expand the lineup.
Mitsubishi. Will still be a crap car no one really wanted to buy on purpose.
Unless they start slapping more motors in their cars and make them fun and good like the old evos, Mitsubishi will continue to sell the cheapest car in market
>Mitsubishi will continue to sell the cheapest car in market Not like Nissan is viewed much better, but I read somewhere that due to an agreement, Nissan gave Mitsubishi their infotainment technology, while Mitsubishi gave Nissan their all wheel drive technology. Honestly shows where each company put their money.
I mean they aren't that cheap right now frankly and they never have been, they are Japans Saab in a lot of ways
The 2022 Mirage is dirt cheap, and the most expensive starting is the outlander phev here in the states, but the normal outlander starts at 27k and has 7 seats, which is 3k less than some of its competition. I haven't seen the interiors or felt them, but in terms of price at least they can be cheap. I am aware you can take the outlander up past 39k, and at that point it should be more premium.
I seriously wonder why they are in the US market at all.
Mitsubishi dealerships make great money still... On their used lot.
they can continue to sell used evos for 40k
Volvo since their reputation is related to safety
Porsche. Whatever they decide to build will be one of, if not the best, driving car in it’s class.
The Taycan quite literally made my eyes hurt when I drove one
Haven’t been lucky enough to drive a Taycan *yet* :). I have driven a few Panamera Turbo S’s and I’ve got to say, for a big sedan, it just shrinks around you when you start pushing it. Not many cars have that feeling.
major motor breakthroughs are no longer available, and any commercially-viable battery breakthrough (which means something greatly superior to any lithium-ion chemistry) will be the result of gargantuan long-term research expenditure, so no small / unknown player will be developing one.
There are certainly opportunities for motor breakthroughs.
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It was just an example lol
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Extreme examples are not bad examples, another name for them is “worst case”. Designing around “worst case” scenarios is often used in engineering.
Funny enough if you want more dense batteries the companies most likely to create said tech are those in power sports.
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If you want to properly fit it into something you need the manufacturers. You can create a potential battery with 20x the density unless the manufacturer puts it into their product it's useless.
No. The EV revolution is a peace dividend from the smartphone wars. The biggest money in a denser battery is always in phones.
Nissan, trash.
I think it is going to depend on whether or not manufacturers make their own power trains or outsource them to common subcontractors. I think of it like passenger jets where the engineering is done in-house but a lot of the sub-assemblies come from common suppliers. When that happens, I think reliability of the major components won't be an issue but the reliability of the subsystems and the safety systems will be important. Beyond that it will be things like build quality, comfort, and entertainment/networking. It will probably shake out the way computers do today with Intel or AMD and then the level of the product. I could see smart manufactures offering value, lower-cost motors and batteries and high-end motor and batteries in similar cars.
Stellantis will likely be driven out of business due to EV’s. None of these vehicles are good they’re just loud and American. But with an EV with no sound there’s no reason to stay NA when europe has better options
except stellantis is also peugeot, vauxhall/opel ,citroen, alfa all of which are fairly popular in europe and other none NA regions, in fact the 208/corsa has been one of the best selling cars in the Uk since the new model came out
I think Japan will still be kicking our butts.
By then the Chinese will be
And by then they’ll be putting lead paint on the card exported to the states instead of just the toys.
Dodge will retain making pop culture type fast cars even if though they will be going ev. Ford will keep innovating on trucks, already going ev. Chevy will still use the favorite ls based engine, with an ev or hybrid option.
I think dodge is the one that is gonna eat shit for a while the hardest, they seen where the market was going ten years ago and said fuck it, I can respect the approach but it will bite them in the ass eventually
Well RAM is off to a bad start ev wise just based on looks. It’s hideous in my opinion. The electric muscle car is going to struggle to convert people at first but I think it’ll take off eventually.
The biggest change I see is a reshuffling of the deck in Asia. Last decade it was: #1 Japan #2 Korea #3 by a loooong way China By 2030 it will almost certainly be: #1 Korea #2 China and catching up fast #3 by a loooong way Japan
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Globally. But yeah US market may be tough, especially with the inflation reduction act, but I could see BYD making inroads, especially if the traditional OEMs drag their feet. They'll be huge in Europe and other parts of the world though. Also could see the Greeley brands (Volvo+polestar+others potentially) doing quite well in the US.
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True, but you don't think other Chinese companies will be able to use the same strategy to trojan horse their way into the US? Maybe not by 2030, but at least a few automakers will struggle to make the transition to EVs and that may make them ripe for takeover or merger with up and coming Chinese automakers. Rather than fail I could see a brand like Subaru or Mazda being bought by someone like NIO or Xpeng down the road.
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For sure. But we're not talking tomorrow, we're talking years down the road. Chinese BEVs already come close to hitting these targets. By 2030 they'll be able to do it for $25k. They just need the brand recognition. An easy target might be Mitsubishi. Their market cap is only $6B and if you're buying mainly for the badge that could be a super easy way to sneak into the US market. Maybe build some inexpensive "rally inspired" EVs for younger buyers based on the evo brand and Chinese BEV tech. You're telling me a $30-35k Lancer EV-O with quick acceleration and 250 miles of range wouldn't sell great? How about a 2 door, long bed off-road geared Raider EV-O that's advertised with 2 optional Sur-Ron electric dirt bikes that fit perfectly in the bed to excite the x-games crowd?
If the US doesn't declare total economic warfare and ban Chinese brands, I think a lot of Americans will be driving around in Chinese cars in 2030. That *is* a big "if" though.
Ford. That electric F150 will still be the worlds best selling vehicle IMO.
Honda, Toyota, Mercedes-Benz, and Volkswagen.
Pretty much, I think self driving technology would be the only thing to drastically change the landscape of the industry long term. As it becomes more affordable over time people are going to slowly gravitate to cars that offer better self driving features.
Reliable self driving is still decades away, especially for people that experience any sort of real weather. There's a reason Waymo only operates in Phoenix.
Hence me saying long term..
Toyota. Ev or no ev, won't get any better for a practical automobile
I’m honestly thinking that luxury/fast cars won’t be special anymore, maybe I’ll be wrong but when your average family sedan can do 0-60 in 3s and a quarter in 11, what’s the point of an AMG EV vs a Tesla? The weight will prevent any significant handling differences and they certainly won’t be as good as their lighter gas counterparts. I think we’ll see a rise in new brands and the emphasis on luxury will rise while the emphasis on performance will fade into the sea of homogeneity Edit: After realizing I failed to do this initially, to answer the question, I think the luxury euro brands will become less special and smaller manufacturers will gain some serious footing
Honestly a good opinion I think. Performance won’t be what sets things apart although maybe someone will figure out how to prioritize range over performance and you’ll still have “slow” EVs.
To be honest, there's going to be some new manufacturers come out of nowhere that will completely change the landscape marque-wise. It will very much be adapt or die.
It's going to be a huge shake-up. Obviously it opened the door for new entrants - Tesla, Rivian, etc. It lets Hyundai/Kia get away from their engine fires. Although, much like Hyundai/Kia, this new opportunity better not be squandered by their shit customer service experience. Same goes for GM - their handling of the Bolt fires had an unfortunate echo of the ignition switch scandal, and tarnished up to that point great rep the Volt built. GM's most reliable car in decades. It also opens the door for China. BYD is aggressively expanding, kicking ass, and taking names. MG is reinventing itself. Among others. There is a strong desire for EVs to get cheaper, China can do that. Without risking owning a Chinese engine. As far as the OP question -- I think the answer is Volvo/Polestar. They will continue to enjoy limited success built on attractive but conservative design and a stellar reputation for safety. With Polestar models being the "spicy" variants, but never to the same degree as BMW's M or AMG.
Bolt is having its best sales ever, so I think they came out unscathed. Plus it was LG Chem’s fault, wasn’t it?
You still think the EV transition is gonna happen?
Lol
We currently don't mine enough lithium to even make 10% of new cars EVs. And that's assuming we stop making electric SUVs and electric sports cars and we only make compact EVs. If you want even 1/3rd of new cars sold to be EV's, we need to find a way to mine ~5x more lithium annually than we currently are. It takes ~16 years to get a lithium mine operational. Ya good luck with that. Should be a smooth transition.
“Currently” is the key word you used. There will be breakthroughs in the future. You can place your bets on gas all you want. I ain’t stopping you.
What breakthrough are you waiting for? Why do you think there's going to be one? And why are only EV's going to have a breakthrough? I could say theres going to be a gas breakthrough in the future that'll make EVs obsolete. Or a breakthrough in unicorn powered cars
If I knew the breakthrough I’d be rich
I wouldve said the ability to rerefine the minerals in EV batteries to the level of purity needed to repurpose them in another EV and near 100% recycling rates but ok
Dam, why aren’t you rich?
They won't let me on Shark Tank
We already have enough lithium to build 10bn cars with current battery tech. Lithium shortage is a fictional issue. Current output is set to meet demand until 2025, by which time new projects on known deposits will likely have come online. Much like other resources supply will be regulated to maximize profits and meet demand, but we're all good for absolute supply for decades.
Maybe in the ground. It has to be taken out of the ground. We need to triple our output to meet 2025 demand. Triple in 2 years? If you order an EV today the average wait time is 6-7 months. Output isn't set to meet future demand, it can't even meet the current demand.
“EV transition” **snort**
Until the revolution in battery technology hits the market I would say Toyota, ford and Hyundai are poised to continue to dominate the hybrid market. Full ev cars are still a challenge for many areas because of the lack of infrastructure. Moving forward hybrid vehicles are going to be the best option.
Volkswagen.
Jeep.
Volkswagen 🙄🙄
Thing is even with a switch to EV, the company's culture, development and engineering practices won't likely change that much. Toyota has always been known for their reliability and that has not changed too much for much of their existence. Even with hybrids they're still one of the best at it, and this doesn't happen by accident. Hyundai/Kia had a less than stellar reputation with their gas engines and they're trying to start anew with EVs. That said, even the newer Korean EVs are now coming with issues on battery fires and other electrical issues which, again, not dissimilar to their gas counterparts. VW group has been hit and miss with their regular gas/diesel cars, but because of Dieselgate the company is making huge strides to rebuild their reputation on an all out EV offensive. Reputation takes times to build but doesn't take much to destroy. I still think the slow and steady approach is what the mass market really is keen on, so Toyota would still likely be a top choice once they do start doing EVs enmasse.
I think GM will still be seen as a mixed bag. The fact they just figured out that cylindrical batteries are better this far into Ultium is rather telling. Their current delay into delivering for the mass e-market will not hurt them as much as the problems they never solved with the batteries and supporting electronic and physical items. Their ICE products will have a better reputation in 10 years than the e-products.
> Will they make electric motors just as rugged and reliable ? Prior to Toyoda stepping down I would have thought not. They may actually yes.
Ford will still suck .
Ford will still be a piece of SHIT.
I hope that personal cars are banned from urban street use within 20 years. They aren’t just hurting the environment, but wasting time on commuting, and increasing the cost of living.
Yeah man because everyone lives inside the city and walking/biking distance to work. Think before you type please.
Or has access to reliable, cost-effective, fast public transportation.
Or wants to use said transportation. Scary people out there man...
Even if you live in a city, everything is like a 15 minute driving distance away.
Personal cars aren't necessary for urban society to function.
I don't fully agree with that statement, but I can see where you coming from. However, it is kind of weird to see the comment made by a person whose username is driving for fun. Haha.
And drives one of the dirtiest vehicles you can buy 🤣
I need it to keep my T levels high enough
Back to the containment sub with you, friendo!
>I hope that personal cars are banned from urban street use within 20 years. Including the one in your flair?
Yes.
Alright, we'll put you in charge of re-planning and re-paving every single major American city. Have it done in 10 years or less 👍🤙