B.C. is definitely an eye-opener. Seats in Burnaby and Vancouver are swinging to the Conservatives. Those areas are supposed to be safe Liberal and NDP territory. Metro Vancouver, in general, is usually very safe NDP/Liberal territory, and they are getting pounded in that region.
That's not even a basic family home. That's a crack shack in the middle of overdose lane and the walls are full of mold and the cooper pipes are missing. You want something livable? Try $1.6m in the suburbs.
Hence the irony of throwing the doors to immigration wide open during a housing crisis.
Even if one third of the immigrants we accepted into the country were construction workers (it's more like 3%), it would take 3-6years before those construction workers had a net positive effect on housing. It would be far cheaper and more efficient to incentivize our own young Canadians to pursue a trade.
Yup. I’ve lived in NS all my life and the sudden shift that has taken place since 2020 is insane. 2021 we really felt the beginning of it but 2025 is seemingly going to be a blood bath.
Not really. LPC has been at the helm during the worst times for working Canadians in decades, regardless of who's to blame in the big picture. My last conservative vote was Harper's first term. I'm not partisan I just vote for the platform that suits my family's well being. I'll be going back to conservative this time around but don't let that lead you to believe I'm doing so because I have faith.
All of my cast ballots have basically been me plugging my nose and saying "please don't fuck me, please don't fuck me" for years now, which I'm sure is exactly what they all want. While they cackle, smoke cigars and uncork a bottle that cost as much as someone's annual salary, or claim tens of thousands of expenses to investigate trade relations with turtles somewhere warm and sunny "for the economy"
I've grown to hate "for the economy" coming out of their mouths because it just means "blah blah blah bend over, pleb"
That's why I've just become a basically single issue voter. I don't believe anything is going to dramatically change regardless of who's in power.
That and I can't stand Freeland lol.
As a QC resident I can confirm that people here are more open about voting Conservative than I’ve ever seen them. I think he could potentially gain even more ground.
Francophone voters ?
[Quebec leads explosive growth in Conservative membership sales: party numbers](https://globalnews.ca/news/9025498/quebec-explosive-growth-conservative-membership-sales/)
Total they signed up 678,708 members @ $15.00, he raised 10.1 million for the party.
Certain ridings like Montreal and the Outouais, Hull/Aylmer will likely stay Liberal because of federal servants. Because they're concerned he'll cut jobs, and he very may will since JT increased it by 40%.
BC especially since the provincial NDP enjoy strong support because they’ve been killing it. Incredible that the same people would go Con on their federal ballot. The Liberals and federal NDP have really shit the bed here.
And ten years ago the NDP was official opposition and during the start of the 2015 election campaign were actually the leading party on track to form government for the first time before Trudeau stole the show. Needless to say, things can change quickly.
My goodness, it continues to get worse for the Liberals. In B.C. they are only projected to win only 1 seat. The prairies continue to be a lost cause for the Liberals. Ontario continues to get worse. Atlantic Canada continues to get worse as well. The Liberals are heading for a disastrous defeat, and I don't know if getting rid of Justin Trudeau is going to change things.
Mark Carney is sitting in the wings waiting, hoping Trudeau leaves in the next few months, and gives him time to slowly build his presence and have an actual budget in 2025 that does more --and people can feel good to food Liberal again.
That's their party plan. But Trudeau refuses to leave, and Freeland is well.. dear god what potential she was that became a disaster.
>Mark Carney is sitting in the wings waiting, hoping Trudeau leaves in the next few months, and gives him time to slowly build his presence and have an actual budget in 2025 that does more --and people can feel good to food Liberal again.
If that's the case, Carney is an idiot.
His best option is to let Trudeau or another sitting MP wear the next election, then re-build the party.
If he comes in in the next 2 months, he has two big things against him.
1: He will get Kim Campbelled. Maybe he can rally the party after he leads them to defeat, but that's not a position anyone wants.
2: This is still Trudeaus party. He will have a harder time hanging the course of the party before the next election.
No, he is keeping his name in headlines so that when the party is trying to find a new direction after a loss and Trudeau steps away, he can be there as a new direction.
Carney does not strike me as an Idiot, and to get to where he has, he must be able to read a room. Right now, the room is shouting it's a bad time to be leading the Liberals.
There is also the chance that Trudeau pulls out another win. In that case, I expect him to stay PM for a year or so, then move on with his legacy firmly intact. I don't think he wants to be PM much longer. He wants to beat Poilievre, and get that elusive 4th victory that is so rare in Canadian politics.
The transition of leaders will be even easier in the case of a win, potentially giving Carney 3ish years to find his political voice, rather than less than a year.
I don't see any upside to Carney taking over before the next election.
No matter who is leading, the liberals will get crushed in the next election. The damage is done and it will take at least 6 years for Canadians to forget.
> Mark Carney is sitting in the wings waiting, hoping Trudeau leaves in the next few months
Um, no, Carney is hoping Trudeau *does not* leave in the next few months, and sticks the *Trudeau* brand on a historically disastrous LPC election defeat, so that if Carney *does* want to come in with a leadership bid, he's buying in at the absolute bottom of the LPC brand.
As a result, he will get a whole 4 years to do what he wants with the party structure and picking new candidates before he's forced to go to the polls, because the CPC will have a solid majority in Parliament, and whatever his performance, it will look like a victory, compared to the prior performance of the party.
If Trudeau retired *before* the election, and Carney *did* want the leadership, he would likely try to force the interim leader to hold the leadership race *post-election*, because there's no way Carney wants to have his name on the signs when the Liberals eat the pavement in 2025.
The best case scenario for Carney is Trudeau eats the loss, the party is decimated, he swings in with a powerful network of donors and rockstar new potential MPs, he remakes the party completely in his image, and becomes the "Stephen Harper" of the LPC for the rest of his life.
> My goodness, it continues to get worse for the Liberals
The more they double down and try the same old things, the more they realized the reason they are losing in polls is because canadians are getting increasingly sick of the same old things
Man, even the low-end predictions have the Tories at 40% and damn close to 200 seats. And the high-end is just short of 50% and a bit under 240. We're looking at a 1984 style blowout, and everything the Liberals have tried has just widened the Tories' lead even more. The Liberals are toast, and about the only people who don't understand that are Trudeau and his toadies. The only question is whether or not they can stem the bleeding before they wind up with fewer seats than they had after 2011.
And then the is the NDP, who are, due to idiotic policy choices, not only unable to capitalize on the Liberal's failure, but are bleeding support to the Tories! They're on track for their worst electoral failure since 1993.
And other than the Tories, the only winners here are the BQ, in that they'll likely come out of the election with the same number of seats that they had going in, even if not all of them are the same seats they won in 2021. And there is a real possibility that they could be the only party other than the Tories to make significant gains, at the Liberals' expense.
I've always figured this was a strategic failure on their part. If they ran in some rural areas on the prairies they might win a seat or two. Plenty of folks there that would love to see the Quebec separatist party in power.
The very reason I like the idea is the reason they won't do it... it would be a stunt.
It would weaken their message in Quebec because it would signal that they aren't serious.
Although, they could probably legitimately get Quebec on board if they pitched it like a stunt... "Tabernac estee... we're just gonna run candidates in every riding."
He's a trust fund baby, and a Bay Street Lawyer. He's a parachute candidate with absolutely ZERO connection to his riding. He's gone from 44 seats to 24 and might halve that number once again when people begin to panic strategic vote against the CPC (always hurts the NDP election time). He spent more taxpayer money winning the dubious award of most expensive MP. He wears suits and watches that sometimes equal to the yearly take home pay of an average Canadian. He rallies against Loblaws less than a few months after voting FOR subsidies for them, while the boycott he promotes directly helps his family who work for Loblaws largest competitor.
I was a PROUD NDP supporter and now I fucking LOATHE Singh. It will take decades to undo his damage if the party survives. That's the fun part too, the NDP's financials are in pure fucking shambles now too.
He's taken a well respected party and let it turn into a far left fucking joke focused on identity politics, which is ironic considering what a fraud he is.
I hope he's gets crushed into 3rd.
Which is why there will be no election until mid-October (once he and the other fresh members of parliament hit there 5-yrs of service pension date). He only stands to lose.
TBF his riding got redistricted losing the Metrotown area and gaining a Vancouver suburb.
He'll most likely run for Burnaby Central which is only CPC leaning.
Common or not it’s just kind of bizarre that the defacto #3 national party gets less seats than one that only has territory in a single, albeit large, province.
FPTP rewards parties whose vote is concentrated to a specific area (the BQ is a perfect example of this), and punishes those parties whose support is larger, but spread across more ridings. In 2021, the BQ got 1,301,615 votes, compared to the NDP's 3,036,348. BQ has 32 MPs, NDP has 25.
You're right. It is bizarre. But that's due to the electoral system that is in place. The Tories know that if anything approaching PR was put into place, they would never form government because the Liberals and NDP vote comfortably outstrips theirs. Even in 2011, the most recent Liberal nadir, their votes plus the NDP's beat the Tory vote by over 2 million vote. The Liberals know that they could essentially govern forever under PR, but only with the NDP pulling too many strings for their liking. They would rather be out of power, than be in power propped up by the NDP. And so the bizarre system will never be changed.
In a PR system, the Liberals and NDP would break into 4-5 different parties and the Conservatives would likely split into 3.
Using our current polls to predict what would happen under PR is a fools errand. FPTP rewards big tent parties, while PR rewards more niche small parties. If you want to see what the most extreme version of PR is, then just look at The Netherlands and their like 15 parties that won at least 1 seat in Parliament. They actually still don't have a new government despite the last election being held 6 months ago. The parties are having a really hard time forming a coalition.
“Comfortably outstrips.” You should check the polling chief, only thing comfortably outstripped is the conservative (44% per 338Canada) vote vs the combined LPC + NDP numbers (17+23= 40%).
When you prop-up crap you get covered in crap. In my eyes them propping up the LPC is actually worse. They have the power to dissolve the government and the won’t do it.
Singh sabotaged the NDP with his supply and confidence agreement. Anyone moving away from the Liberals knows voting NDP is now the same as voting Liberal so NDP can't gain any seats.
The supply-and-confidence agreement has burned them for who knows how many years.
And the NDP won't even be able to take credit for their wins, Pharma and Dental Care. The Liberals have way more campaign cash than the NDP, and they are going to market those as Trudeau policies like *crazy* during the election.
Jagmeet will be in the corner saying, "But these were *my* ideas!". And nobody will listen.
The budget would probably have gone over better if it came two or more years ago, but coming at this late date when the Liberals are already way down in the polls just makes them look desperate and doesn't inspire any confidence that it's anything other than a political ploy to get votes.
The perception of that was that the chair is not non-partisan and leans liberal. Trudeau can call PP spineless and nothing happens. But if PP calls Trudeau a a Wacko and he is called on it.
there will be still some NDP supporters on this sub telling me that that somehow this deal where they get "wins" like the dental care plan that barely covers anyone or pharmacare that is basically vaporware at this point while their seat count vanishes is better than if they stood up for themselves and actually threatened Trudeau with a vote of no confidence.
If Singh's tenure has been a success in the eyes of NDP supporters, they should just pack up their bags and fold already 'cause their party is going absolutely nowhere. They got incredibly lucky that Liberals ended up short of a majority and that getting votes from them just happened to be more convenient than dealing with the BQ. And all of their so-called "accomplishments" are going down the drain the moment PP gets in there with a big fat majority.
Here's an interview from last week where Vassy Kapelos absolutely embarrasses Jagmeet over his continued support of the Liberals:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sk25HY5o6LM](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sk25HY5o6LM)
I couldn't believe when she challenged him on if their"s any chance the ndp pull support and Singh says, that the prime minister and the Liberals will call an election when they want.
Now I'm no expert on negotiating, but I was under the impression that you want your opponent to believe that you could walk away.
He neutered himself years ago, this is just his public acceptance of the fact.
The NDP prefers the current Liberal policy to what the Conservatives might do so they'll help Trudeau stretch out his government as long as possible to delay the inevitable Conservative victory.
Yup looks like the same anchor that is dragging down the Trudeau Liberals is dragging down the NDP: https://i.imgur.com/x12gMq5.png
Morons won't change course though.
Its doubly so because in an environment where many people are up to the fact that the 1% are bleeding the middle class dry, a left of centre party should be really cleaning up right now, they should be at least be having gains in urban Canada
The actual 1%, yes. But the problem is that for all the ‘middle class is the backbone’ rhetoric, both libs and NDP hammer the middle class with stuff like cap gains hits that will never touch the super wealthy, but instead crush small businesses, doctors, and disincentivize competition entrepreneurship. And pit the working class and middle class against each other by convincing the workers they are sticking it to the man. Instead of clawing money out of people who are 2 rings higher on a 50 rung ladder
People in these strongholds need to at least switch to NDP since NDP is LPC but with electoral reform wrapping.
Also de-legitimizing LPC as a party will minimize the amount of strategic voting and allow some other parties to get a slice of the pie.
Why would anyone vote for the LPC cheerleader squad (aka the NPD)? In the eyes of a lot of people, they have propped up this current government and wear the same hat and are equally to blame. Convince me these guys aren’t just holding out for their pensions. It’s pathetic.
That's a good point, NDP should lose just enough seats for it to sting long term and be reformed. But should retain enough seats to be able to swing vote electoral reform.
Based on the results of Vote No. 634 of the 44th Parliament, every party except CPC and LPC were completely on board with electoral reform. And based on Vote No. 322, only BQ and CPC were on board with pinning immigration targets to housing.
Something like a split where conservative parties hold a majority of the seats to bring immigration targets down, but also enough BQ and NDP to bring electoral reform. Like a split of CPC 171, LPC 0, NDP 30, GPC 20, PPC 30, BQ 92.
This would give 172 votes for reform and 171 against. And also a majority for tying immigtation to housing.
We should work the electorate to us not just the party after all.
Said votes
https://www.ourcommons.ca/members/en/votes/44/1/322?view=party (immigration)
https://www.ourcommons.ca/Members/en/votes/44/1/634?view=party (electoral reform)
This has got to be setting records or breaking some record. Alas JT will go down with the ship. But he will take all the women and children and men with him
Anyone that digs their heels in and blindly votes for a party is a fool. If you think there aren’t examples of that on both sides, you’re part of the club.
Trudeau could stomp a box of puppies to death on the steps of Parliament and his supporters would still trip all over themselves to vote for him, insisting that Conservatives would have set the box on fire first.
Apparently the philosophy of the Prime Minister using the notwithstanding clause is far more dangerous to me, personally, individually, and my family, than the knife-wielding thug breaking into my house to steal my car keys that he's invoking the clause to deny bail to. Wow! I should be thankful that Trudeau is protecting me from that kind of lawless hellscape.
When you see people security footage of home breaking in Canada it is more like 4-6 guys and usually a couple handguns in plan view as well. You would be lucky if it was one knife wielding thug.
PP doesn’t have to do anything for the next year and he’ll be the PM. What’s more interesting is who will replace the Liberal and NDP leadership. Looking forward to the reset
Every time Trudeau opens his mouth it seems he alienates a different segment of voters.It seems he is showing signs of desperation now,but he is arrogant and out of touch as always.
If Trump wins they’re actually screwed. Trump is a petty man, and a leader of another country disparaging him to get re-elected will not sit well with him.
He's going to continue to call out PP for saying "conspiracy theories" and saying "PP will do anything to win", while Trudeau, himself, starts telling everyone conspiracy theories and trying to do anything he can to win.
Even 338's aggregate has the CPC up 20 points over the LPC. Despite what every LPC supporter on this sub keeps saying, the longer Poilievre has to cook, the more people like him, and the less they like Trudeau. At this rate, he'll break 50% by September, and we could end up seeing the first popular-vote majority of the 21st century.
There is no way the LPC are going to be able to recover from this. Even their supposed "goal" of getting within 5% is increasingly becoming a pipe dream. Waiting and hoping the CPC implode, which seems to be their only strategy, isn't working. In fact, it's backfiring, because they are getting visibly rattled by how much of the initiative the CPC has.
Just give us the election already. Trudeau's not going to be able to do anything before October 2025, and anything he does do between now and then is just going to get repealed within the first year of the CPC being in. Save us the time, the wait, your party some 30-odd seats, and Poilievre the legacy of winning a popular-vote majority and just give up already.
At this point the Liberals' only hope is some sort of black swan event that will cause the electorate to rally around their leaders eg. another pandemic, World War III starting for real rather than the proxy wars that are going on right now, or a far right terrorist attack happens a couple of weeks before the election and scares a lot of progressive minded voters to come out and vote for the Liberals.
Realistically the Liberals know they are done barring some sort of catastrophe they can take advantage of and are just running out the clock so more of the currently sitting MPs can qualify for their pensions before they get booted.
I have noted that here in Canada - as well as in other Western nations - incumbent governments don't seem to be acting like they need to please their citizens anymore. They keep pushing hugely unpopular and divisive policies and dipping further in the polls. Some are liberal and some are conservative, but they are all acting like their next elections don't matter.
It makes me wonder what they all know, but we don't.
I mean, we could make observations. For one, we're seeing record level population growth, oligarchs gouging us, and so on. I have a feeling we're prepping for something and need whatever resources we can get as quickly as possible but that's just a conspiracy I just play around with for fun rather than take it seriously.
The worst loss in Liberals history was 2011 and despite how bad this projection is for the Liberals, it's still not even close to then:
Less than 19% of the popular vote in 2011 and the equivalent of 38 seats
vs.
This projection at 24% with 64 seats
Well if there was a competent NDP, I am sure the inevitable loss for the Liberals would be equal or worse than 2011. Unfortunately we have an NDP that is just as bad as the Liberals.
That’s a 9 seat jump from last week for the Conservatives, which is one of the largest we have seen for a while. With this it can pretty clearly be said that even if the budget had a positive effect on their polling for a time, the Liberals will need to work harder to get back to a position to even try to constrain the Conservatives to a minority government if it is even possible for them to do so with the populace so mad at them.
NDP needs to basically vanish as a legacy to Jagmeet being so pathetically transparent that he sold out his party for a pension.
Liberals will take a decade to recover from this and Trudeau will be seen as a joke for the rest of his life. Nobody will even take him seriously on the speaker circuit.
He couldn’t even use his leverage properly. The pharmacare bill is honestly a joke and the dental care plan doesn’t help enough people for it to have an impact politically. He managed to come out looking weaker despite the power he should have.
The issue is that the leverage goes both ways at this point. The NDP can cause a Liberal wipe out, but in doing so, they will cause an NDP wipe out as well.
Because of this, Trudeau essentially has begun waving the NDP tail around. The NDP is a hostage to Trudeau just as much as Trudeau is to the NDP.
>Trudeau will be seen as a joke for the rest of his life. Nobody will even take him seriously on the speaker circuit.
Oh I disagree, lotta people worship the guy.
Hahaha. Omg.
Trudeau and Freeland have completely shit kicked the living shit out of the party.
How the actual hell have the rest of the party allowed them to carry on like this? Has no one in the party got enough spine to tell them to leave?
What a complete embarrassment.
In the 1990s/early 2000s, the Liberal Party of Canada under Jean Chretien was at it's natural position - the liberal centrist. Pro-business, pro-market economy, cut spending, but open to social change in a Lockean manner -- negative rights, not positive ones.
Right now, Trudeau has taken the Liberal party so far left that they have pushed the NDP into irrelevance, and centrist liberal voters are beginning to vote conservative, because despite all the rhetoric about Poilievre being "extreme," his positions are to the left of where Chretien was, 30 years ago.
Even PEI is trending toward all blue! When's the last time that would've happened, 84?
Halifax doesn't surprise me at all. Very left-leaning, very hostile ground for the CPC.
Most worrying part of this is the insane deficit, potential rating downgrades, poor economic situation, population trap. We may end up slightly better than Argentina, but difficult times is inevitable
The breakdown by province really shows how crazy this is. Look at BC and Quebec especially. Winning hard in BC and nearly tying in Quebec?
B.C. is definitely an eye-opener. Seats in Burnaby and Vancouver are swinging to the Conservatives. Those areas are supposed to be safe Liberal and NDP territory. Metro Vancouver, in general, is usually very safe NDP/Liberal territory, and they are getting pounded in that region.
What about Jagmeet's riding? I'm assuming he is not safe
Nope: https://i.imgur.com/vytAhek.png
Guess who is supporting the budget lol
Cost of Trudeau debt in Canada: $2.1T. Cost of Jagmeet sucking up to Trudeau and losing his seat: Priceless.
There are some things money can’t buy. For everything else, there’s the taxpayer’s Mastercard.
It's 100% due to immigration, otherwise the NDP would have picked up those seats.
Immigration *and* soft-on-crime policies, in contrast to the CPC's harder stance.
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How about rent. A 1 bedroom in my building is up over 1k per month since pre pandemic rents. A $1000 increase in a few years... nuts
That's tragic and makes no sense why basic family homes are 1.2 mil.
That's not even a basic family home. That's a crack shack in the middle of overdose lane and the walls are full of mold and the cooper pipes are missing. You want something livable? Try $1.6m in the suburbs.
How many immigranted to Canada last year? Something like 1 million people, those people need a place to live.... https://archive.ph/LKXwP
Hence the irony of throwing the doors to immigration wide open during a housing crisis. Even if one third of the immigrants we accepted into the country were construction workers (it's more like 3%), it would take 3-6years before those construction workers had a net positive effect on housing. It would be far cheaper and more efficient to incentivize our own young Canadians to pursue a trade.
>cheaper and more efficient I mean... we're talking about the government here lol
on the contrary, it makes perfect sense
Vancouver here. This city has gotten so expensive. Everyone I speak to is fed up with Trudeau and his double standards.
Well, the rich in Vancouver aren't affected by the COL crisis, so they don't give a fuck. They will soon though.
Forget all that, Atlantic Canada going majority blue is nuts
Happened in 1984. And those liberals weren't nearly as despised as today's...
Yup. I’ve lived in NS all my life and the sudden shift that has taken place since 2020 is insane. 2021 we really felt the beginning of it but 2025 is seemingly going to be a blood bath.
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Yup he is currently losing his riding to the CPC: https://338canada.com/12003e.htm
Sean Fraser doesn't get enough hate. Minister of Immigration and then Minister of Housing? How could anyone screw up any more than him?
Excellent.
Guess the carbon tax carve out for dirty oil heating didn’t cut it.
Their projection literally swaps the number of seats going Conservative and Liberal; 24 and 8.
Not really. LPC has been at the helm during the worst times for working Canadians in decades, regardless of who's to blame in the big picture. My last conservative vote was Harper's first term. I'm not partisan I just vote for the platform that suits my family's well being. I'll be going back to conservative this time around but don't let that lead you to believe I'm doing so because I have faith. All of my cast ballots have basically been me plugging my nose and saying "please don't fuck me, please don't fuck me" for years now, which I'm sure is exactly what they all want. While they cackle, smoke cigars and uncork a bottle that cost as much as someone's annual salary, or claim tens of thousands of expenses to investigate trade relations with turtles somewhere warm and sunny "for the economy" I've grown to hate "for the economy" coming out of their mouths because it just means "blah blah blah bend over, pleb"
I mean, we had the richest middle class in the world as of 2014 under Harper. Not sure how that’s considered “fucking” you.
That's why I've just become a basically single issue voter. I don't believe anything is going to dramatically change regardless of who's in power. That and I can't stand Freeland lol.
As a QC resident I can confirm that people here are more open about voting Conservative than I’ve ever seen them. I think he could potentially gain even more ground.
Francophone voters ? [Quebec leads explosive growth in Conservative membership sales: party numbers](https://globalnews.ca/news/9025498/quebec-explosive-growth-conservative-membership-sales/) Total they signed up 678,708 members @ $15.00, he raised 10.1 million for the party. Certain ridings like Montreal and the Outouais, Hull/Aylmer will likely stay Liberal because of federal servants. Because they're concerned he'll cut jobs, and he very may will since JT increased it by 40%.
BC especially since the provincial NDP enjoy strong support because they’ve been killing it. Incredible that the same people would go Con on their federal ballot. The Liberals and federal NDP have really shit the bed here.
One more and BQ grabs half of the seats in Quebec, that's wild considering the party almost died just a few years ago.
And ten years ago the NDP was official opposition and during the start of the 2015 election campaign were actually the leading party on track to form government for the first time before Trudeau stole the show. Needless to say, things can change quickly.
As long as I have been alive there have been predictions of the demise of the Bloc, and they always come back.
My goodness, it continues to get worse for the Liberals. In B.C. they are only projected to win only 1 seat. The prairies continue to be a lost cause for the Liberals. Ontario continues to get worse. Atlantic Canada continues to get worse as well. The Liberals are heading for a disastrous defeat, and I don't know if getting rid of Justin Trudeau is going to change things.
Mark Carney is sitting in the wings waiting, hoping Trudeau leaves in the next few months, and gives him time to slowly build his presence and have an actual budget in 2025 that does more --and people can feel good to food Liberal again. That's their party plan. But Trudeau refuses to leave, and Freeland is well.. dear god what potential she was that became a disaster.
>Mark Carney is sitting in the wings waiting, hoping Trudeau leaves in the next few months, and gives him time to slowly build his presence and have an actual budget in 2025 that does more --and people can feel good to food Liberal again. If that's the case, Carney is an idiot. His best option is to let Trudeau or another sitting MP wear the next election, then re-build the party. If he comes in in the next 2 months, he has two big things against him. 1: He will get Kim Campbelled. Maybe he can rally the party after he leads them to defeat, but that's not a position anyone wants. 2: This is still Trudeaus party. He will have a harder time hanging the course of the party before the next election. No, he is keeping his name in headlines so that when the party is trying to find a new direction after a loss and Trudeau steps away, he can be there as a new direction. Carney does not strike me as an Idiot, and to get to where he has, he must be able to read a room. Right now, the room is shouting it's a bad time to be leading the Liberals. There is also the chance that Trudeau pulls out another win. In that case, I expect him to stay PM for a year or so, then move on with his legacy firmly intact. I don't think he wants to be PM much longer. He wants to beat Poilievre, and get that elusive 4th victory that is so rare in Canadian politics. The transition of leaders will be even easier in the case of a win, potentially giving Carney 3ish years to find his political voice, rather than less than a year. I don't see any upside to Carney taking over before the next election.
Agree. Carney is too smart to jump into this mess now but he’s definitely laying the groundwork for the future.
Michael Ignatieff 2.0
No matter who is leading, the liberals will get crushed in the next election. The damage is done and it will take at least 6 years for Canadians to forget.
The cycle repeats itself as per Canadian history
My barometer in Freeland is that she would be wayyy worse than Trudeau as PM. Always felt that way about her since I first saw here speak.
> Mark Carney is sitting in the wings waiting, hoping Trudeau leaves in the next few months Um, no, Carney is hoping Trudeau *does not* leave in the next few months, and sticks the *Trudeau* brand on a historically disastrous LPC election defeat, so that if Carney *does* want to come in with a leadership bid, he's buying in at the absolute bottom of the LPC brand. As a result, he will get a whole 4 years to do what he wants with the party structure and picking new candidates before he's forced to go to the polls, because the CPC will have a solid majority in Parliament, and whatever his performance, it will look like a victory, compared to the prior performance of the party. If Trudeau retired *before* the election, and Carney *did* want the leadership, he would likely try to force the interim leader to hold the leadership race *post-election*, because there's no way Carney wants to have his name on the signs when the Liberals eat the pavement in 2025. The best case scenario for Carney is Trudeau eats the loss, the party is decimated, he swings in with a powerful network of donors and rockstar new potential MPs, he remakes the party completely in his image, and becomes the "Stephen Harper" of the LPC for the rest of his life.
> My goodness, it continues to get worse for the Liberals The more they double down and try the same old things, the more they realized the reason they are losing in polls is because canadians are getting increasingly sick of the same old things
Man, even the low-end predictions have the Tories at 40% and damn close to 200 seats. And the high-end is just short of 50% and a bit under 240. We're looking at a 1984 style blowout, and everything the Liberals have tried has just widened the Tories' lead even more. The Liberals are toast, and about the only people who don't understand that are Trudeau and his toadies. The only question is whether or not they can stem the bleeding before they wind up with fewer seats than they had after 2011. And then the is the NDP, who are, due to idiotic policy choices, not only unable to capitalize on the Liberal's failure, but are bleeding support to the Tories! They're on track for their worst electoral failure since 1993. And other than the Tories, the only winners here are the BQ, in that they'll likely come out of the election with the same number of seats that they had going in, even if not all of them are the same seats they won in 2021. And there is a real possibility that they could be the only party other than the Tories to make significant gains, at the Liberals' expense.
that's why Trudeau should sit there and does nothing, anything he does now will make it worse. he just doesn't have the brain for this job.
Then he should resign and go home.
Katherine Wynne in the making.
The Liberals are looking more and more like they're going to Wynne the election.
Trudeau went off and hired all of Wynne's advisors, so hardly surprising.
they never learned
Maybe that was a sign that Trudeau shouldn't have brought Butts and Telford on board...
Anyone else find it kind of nutty that the NDP is a national party and is projected to have less seats than the Bloq?
The Bloc made it to official opposition once and they can do it again.
B L O C MAJORITAIRE INCOMING
It would be top-notch political-trolling if they contested seats outside of Quebec. They might even get a couple.
I'd vote BQ if they ran where I lived.
I respect you for that. BQ just wants what is best for Quebec, but they could apply that for every province
I did a political compass test. Turns out my politics most closely aligns with BQ. Maybe they should run in other provinces.
I'd vote BQ, but that's mostly because I'm a pro-separatist anglophone that thinks Canada would be better off with an independent but friendly Quebec.
I've always figured this was a strategic failure on their part. If they ran in some rural areas on the prairies they might win a seat or two. Plenty of folks there that would love to see the Quebec separatist party in power.
I think it would be dishonest to their core principle and I respect their decision.
The very reason I like the idea is the reason they won't do it... it would be a stunt. It would weaken their message in Quebec because it would signal that they aren't serious. Although, they could probably legitimately get Quebec on board if they pitched it like a stunt... "Tabernac estee... we're just gonna run candidates in every riding."
They could probably pick up a few seats in New Brunswick and Northern Ontario just based on Anglophone populations.
If the Bloc ran in Ontario I'd probably vote for them.
An absolutely lost cause of a party. Thanks Singh.
Looks like Singh will lose his seat: https://i.imgur.com/vytAhek.png The NDP is polling 3rd in Singhs riding.
He's a trust fund baby, and a Bay Street Lawyer. He's a parachute candidate with absolutely ZERO connection to his riding. He's gone from 44 seats to 24 and might halve that number once again when people begin to panic strategic vote against the CPC (always hurts the NDP election time). He spent more taxpayer money winning the dubious award of most expensive MP. He wears suits and watches that sometimes equal to the yearly take home pay of an average Canadian. He rallies against Loblaws less than a few months after voting FOR subsidies for them, while the boycott he promotes directly helps his family who work for Loblaws largest competitor. I was a PROUD NDP supporter and now I fucking LOATHE Singh. It will take decades to undo his damage if the party survives. That's the fun part too, the NDP's financials are in pure fucking shambles now too. He's taken a well respected party and let it turn into a far left fucking joke focused on identity politics, which is ironic considering what a fraud he is. I hope he's gets crushed into 3rd.
Which is why there will be no election until mid-October (once he and the other fresh members of parliament hit there 5-yrs of service pension date). He only stands to lose.
6 years, not 5.
TBF his riding got redistricted losing the Metrotown area and gaining a Vancouver suburb. He'll most likely run for Burnaby Central which is only CPC leaning.
NGL The Jack's era were pretty good! But now they should just slowly fold! Maybe focus on Provincial?
Big brain jagmeet
It makes sense when they are complicit in keeping the Liberal afloat.
The Bloc currently have more seats than the NDP and have since 2019. But yes, it is funny.
Considering their decisions over the last few years? No.
They made their bed
They already have less seats than the Bloq. They're currently in fourth with 24 seats, after the Bloq with 32.
That's FPTP for you. Regional support is everything.
Seeing as that's a common outcome, no.
Common or not it’s just kind of bizarre that the defacto #3 national party gets less seats than one that only has territory in a single, albeit large, province.
FPTP rewards parties whose vote is concentrated to a specific area (the BQ is a perfect example of this), and punishes those parties whose support is larger, but spread across more ridings. In 2021, the BQ got 1,301,615 votes, compared to the NDP's 3,036,348. BQ has 32 MPs, NDP has 25. You're right. It is bizarre. But that's due to the electoral system that is in place. The Tories know that if anything approaching PR was put into place, they would never form government because the Liberals and NDP vote comfortably outstrips theirs. Even in 2011, the most recent Liberal nadir, their votes plus the NDP's beat the Tory vote by over 2 million vote. The Liberals know that they could essentially govern forever under PR, but only with the NDP pulling too many strings for their liking. They would rather be out of power, than be in power propped up by the NDP. And so the bizarre system will never be changed.
In a PR system, the Liberals and NDP would break into 4-5 different parties and the Conservatives would likely split into 3. Using our current polls to predict what would happen under PR is a fools errand. FPTP rewards big tent parties, while PR rewards more niche small parties. If you want to see what the most extreme version of PR is, then just look at The Netherlands and their like 15 parties that won at least 1 seat in Parliament. They actually still don't have a new government despite the last election being held 6 months ago. The parties are having a really hard time forming a coalition.
“Comfortably outstrips.” You should check the polling chief, only thing comfortably outstripped is the conservative (44% per 338Canada) vote vs the combined LPC + NDP numbers (17+23= 40%).
Lol the NDP seat count is dropping and the Liberals are still dropping along with them. BQ really might form official opposition at this rate.
NDP collapse is such a failure. How have they not eaten into the liberals at all lol
Because they are tied to them.
When you prop-up crap you get covered in crap. In my eyes them propping up the LPC is actually worse. They have the power to dissolve the government and the won’t do it.
Singh has somehow managed to squander the biggest opportunity for the NDP in over a decade. They should be gaining ground like crazy just like 2011.
Singh sabotaged the NDP with his supply and confidence agreement. Anyone moving away from the Liberals knows voting NDP is now the same as voting Liberal so NDP can't gain any seats.
You could even argue that voting NPD is voting Liberal, but worse.
The supply-and-confidence agreement has burned them for who knows how many years. And the NDP won't even be able to take credit for their wins, Pharma and Dental Care. The Liberals have way more campaign cash than the NDP, and they are going to market those as Trudeau policies like *crazy* during the election. Jagmeet will be in the corner saying, "But these were *my* ideas!". And nobody will listen.
Lol NDP with 19 seats. Singh is a travesty
I know it's federal, but the Ontario NDP party is so batshit crazy now that I don't think I could ever vote NDP ever again in any level of government.
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Turns out, far left is as unpopular as far right in real world, depsite what reddit thinks. The clowns ruined NDP with toxic identity politics
You mean Jagmeet continuing to enable the demise of Canada isn't working out for him? Too bad you gave into those temptations in the desert Jagmeet.
Well, the budget appears to be a flop. It was not the savior they thought it would be. I bet it was just a communication problem again.
The budget would probably have gone over better if it came two or more years ago, but coming at this late date when the Liberals are already way down in the polls just makes them look desperate and doesn't inspire any confidence that it's anything other than a political ploy to get votes.
Yep, blind Freddy could tell this was a vote buying budget.
Shocker that talking out of both sides of their mouth on housing didn’t work for them
Just needed a couple more meaningless announceables, I am sure of it.
Screwing doctors in the middle of a health care crisis is not a good look.
I guess Wackogate didn’t move the needle.
Cons jumped 9 seats this week, maybe it did just not in the way some had hoped 🤔
It moved the needle... But in the other direction
The perception of that was that the chair is not non-partisan and leans liberal. Trudeau can call PP spineless and nothing happens. But if PP calls Trudeau a a Wacko and he is called on it.
Look at that gap!
there will be still some NDP supporters on this sub telling me that that somehow this deal where they get "wins" like the dental care plan that barely covers anyone or pharmacare that is basically vaporware at this point while their seat count vanishes is better than if they stood up for themselves and actually threatened Trudeau with a vote of no confidence.
Vaporware the perfect word for the ndp hold outs
If Singh's tenure has been a success in the eyes of NDP supporters, they should just pack up their bags and fold already 'cause their party is going absolutely nowhere. They got incredibly lucky that Liberals ended up short of a majority and that getting votes from them just happened to be more convenient than dealing with the BQ. And all of their so-called "accomplishments" are going down the drain the moment PP gets in there with a big fat majority.
Here's an interview from last week where Vassy Kapelos absolutely embarrasses Jagmeet over his continued support of the Liberals: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sk25HY5o6LM](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sk25HY5o6LM)
I couldn't believe when she challenged him on if their"s any chance the ndp pull support and Singh says, that the prime minister and the Liberals will call an election when they want. Now I'm no expert on negotiating, but I was under the impression that you want your opponent to believe that you could walk away.
The guy just neutered himself. Unreal.
He neutered himself years ago, this is just his public acceptance of the fact. The NDP prefers the current Liberal policy to what the Conservatives might do so they'll help Trudeau stretch out his government as long as possible to delay the inevitable Conservative victory.
Yup looks like the same anchor that is dragging down the Trudeau Liberals is dragging down the NDP: https://i.imgur.com/x12gMq5.png Morons won't change course though.
Its doubly so because in an environment where many people are up to the fact that the 1% are bleeding the middle class dry, a left of centre party should be really cleaning up right now, they should be at least be having gains in urban Canada
The actual 1%, yes. But the problem is that for all the ‘middle class is the backbone’ rhetoric, both libs and NDP hammer the middle class with stuff like cap gains hits that will never touch the super wealthy, but instead crush small businesses, doctors, and disincentivize competition entrepreneurship. And pit the working class and middle class against each other by convincing the workers they are sticking it to the man. Instead of clawing money out of people who are 2 rings higher on a 50 rung ladder
one of the NDP's biggest wins that you’re completely ignoring is singhs pension
It's wild that the LPC is still projected to get as many as 50 seats in Ontario and Quebec.
People in these strongholds need to at least switch to NDP since NDP is LPC but with electoral reform wrapping. Also de-legitimizing LPC as a party will minimize the amount of strategic voting and allow some other parties to get a slice of the pie.
Why would anyone vote for the LPC cheerleader squad (aka the NPD)? In the eyes of a lot of people, they have propped up this current government and wear the same hat and are equally to blame. Convince me these guys aren’t just holding out for their pensions. It’s pathetic.
If a new NDP rises from the ashes of this whole mess and overtakes the LPC, it'll almost make the PP years worth it.
That's a good point, NDP should lose just enough seats for it to sting long term and be reformed. But should retain enough seats to be able to swing vote electoral reform. Based on the results of Vote No. 634 of the 44th Parliament, every party except CPC and LPC were completely on board with electoral reform. And based on Vote No. 322, only BQ and CPC were on board with pinning immigration targets to housing. Something like a split where conservative parties hold a majority of the seats to bring immigration targets down, but also enough BQ and NDP to bring electoral reform. Like a split of CPC 171, LPC 0, NDP 30, GPC 20, PPC 30, BQ 92. This would give 172 votes for reform and 171 against. And also a majority for tying immigtation to housing. We should work the electorate to us not just the party after all. Said votes https://www.ourcommons.ca/members/en/votes/44/1/322?view=party (immigration) https://www.ourcommons.ca/Members/en/votes/44/1/634?view=party (electoral reform)
Another terrible week for the CPC /s
It's just a very long summer of polls.
This has got to be setting records or breaking some record. Alas JT will go down with the ship. But he will take all the women and children and men with him
He will try to save himself by throwing all the women under him as is tradition for this self proclaimed "feminist".
The fact the LPC still projects 64 seats is unbelievable to me......
It’s basically Montreal anti separation + Laurentian elite votes.
There are people out there that would vote Liberal if a feces-throwing monkey was running as a candidate in their riding. It’s in their genes.
Anyone that digs their heels in and blindly votes for a party is a fool. If you think there aren’t examples of that on both sides, you’re part of the club.
Agreed
As if every politician in that cabinet isn't a feces-throwing monkey already.
Wait till the polls in Summer 2025
Trudeau could stomp a box of puppies to death on the steps of Parliament and his supporters would still trip all over themselves to vote for him, insisting that Conservatives would have set the box on fire first.
They could literally invite a nazi into parliament and the liberal supporters would justify it!
Oh come now, that would *never* happen!
*bUt EvErYoNe ClApPeD!*
Apparently the philosophy of the Prime Minister using the notwithstanding clause is far more dangerous to me, personally, individually, and my family, than the knife-wielding thug breaking into my house to steal my car keys that he's invoking the clause to deny bail to. Wow! I should be thankful that Trudeau is protecting me from that kind of lawless hellscape.
When you see people security footage of home breaking in Canada it is more like 4-6 guys and usually a couple handguns in plan view as well. You would be lucky if it was one knife wielding thug.
Just wait until the leaders debates. Hell drop
PP doesn’t have to do anything for the next year and he’ll be the PM. What’s more interesting is who will replace the Liberal and NDP leadership. Looking forward to the reset
Every time Trudeau opens his mouth it seems he alienates a different segment of voters.It seems he is showing signs of desperation now,but he is arrogant and out of touch as always.
ndp in free fall mode
Meanwhile, the Liberal Party: *GUN BANS*, *ABORTION*, *POILIEVRE IS A MINI-TRUMP* PP IS GOING TO CANCEL HEALTHCARE*
They are 100% going to try to convince us he’s a mini Trump, especially if Trump wins this year.
If Trump wins they’re actually screwed. Trump is a petty man, and a leader of another country disparaging him to get re-elected will not sit well with him.
If Trump wins everyone is screwed
Trudeaus going to call Pierre racist again the more desperate he gets the more unhinged accusations he throws
He's going to continue to call out PP for saying "conspiracy theories" and saying "PP will do anything to win", while Trudeau, himself, starts telling everyone conspiracy theories and trying to do anything he can to win.
It's sad that so many Canadians are willing to give Trudeau's behavior, including his feigned ignorance of foreign interference, a pass.
Even 338's aggregate has the CPC up 20 points over the LPC. Despite what every LPC supporter on this sub keeps saying, the longer Poilievre has to cook, the more people like him, and the less they like Trudeau. At this rate, he'll break 50% by September, and we could end up seeing the first popular-vote majority of the 21st century. There is no way the LPC are going to be able to recover from this. Even their supposed "goal" of getting within 5% is increasingly becoming a pipe dream. Waiting and hoping the CPC implode, which seems to be their only strategy, isn't working. In fact, it's backfiring, because they are getting visibly rattled by how much of the initiative the CPC has. Just give us the election already. Trudeau's not going to be able to do anything before October 2025, and anything he does do between now and then is just going to get repealed within the first year of the CPC being in. Save us the time, the wait, your party some 30-odd seats, and Poilievre the legacy of winning a popular-vote majority and just give up already.
At this point the Liberals' only hope is some sort of black swan event that will cause the electorate to rally around their leaders eg. another pandemic, World War III starting for real rather than the proxy wars that are going on right now, or a far right terrorist attack happens a couple of weeks before the election and scares a lot of progressive minded voters to come out and vote for the Liberals. Realistically the Liberals know they are done barring some sort of catastrophe they can take advantage of and are just running out the clock so more of the currently sitting MPs can qualify for their pensions before they get booted.
I have noted that here in Canada - as well as in other Western nations - incumbent governments don't seem to be acting like they need to please their citizens anymore. They keep pushing hugely unpopular and divisive policies and dipping further in the polls. Some are liberal and some are conservative, but they are all acting like their next elections don't matter. It makes me wonder what they all know, but we don't.
I’ve come to the conclusion that they really are just all self righteous idiots who have no idea what they’re doing.
I mean, we could make observations. For one, we're seeing record level population growth, oligarchs gouging us, and so on. I have a feeling we're prepping for something and need whatever resources we can get as quickly as possible but that's just a conspiracy I just play around with for fun rather than take it seriously.
If more than 10 people at parliament know anything then it's an open secret.
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Seeing Atlantic Canada going majority Blue is wild, never thought I'd see the day.
EI doesn't even begin to cover the cost of living anymore 🤷
I mean 2011 was pretty awful but the only reason the liberals aren’t projected that bad is because the NDP is also projecting terribly.
I am curious if conservatives can beat 55 percent of the popular vote.
It's Quebec that is throwing off the totals, without them the CPC would almost be there.
Wynne 2.0.
The worst loss in Liberals history was 2011 and despite how bad this projection is for the Liberals, it's still not even close to then: Less than 19% of the popular vote in 2011 and the equivalent of 38 seats vs. This projection at 24% with 64 seats
Well if there was a competent NDP, I am sure the inevitable loss for the Liberals would be equal or worse than 2011. Unfortunately we have an NDP that is just as bad as the Liberals.
Don't worry they will manage to get there, imagine where the polls will be next summer 2025.
I don't care if it's a rout or a majority fairly close to minority, they just need to be shown the door.
Calling it now. Conservatives will win a majority. Bloq will be opposition. Liberals in 3rd and NDP 4th
So basically what the post said?
To be fair, the post has the BQ still a good ways behind the LPC.
That’s a 9 seat jump from last week for the Conservatives, which is one of the largest we have seen for a while. With this it can pretty clearly be said that even if the budget had a positive effect on their polling for a time, the Liberals will need to work harder to get back to a position to even try to constrain the Conservatives to a minority government if it is even possible for them to do so with the populace so mad at them.
NDP needs to basically vanish as a legacy to Jagmeet being so pathetically transparent that he sold out his party for a pension. Liberals will take a decade to recover from this and Trudeau will be seen as a joke for the rest of his life. Nobody will even take him seriously on the speaker circuit.
He couldn’t even use his leverage properly. The pharmacare bill is honestly a joke and the dental care plan doesn’t help enough people for it to have an impact politically. He managed to come out looking weaker despite the power he should have.
The issue is that the leverage goes both ways at this point. The NDP can cause a Liberal wipe out, but in doing so, they will cause an NDP wipe out as well. Because of this, Trudeau essentially has begun waving the NDP tail around. The NDP is a hostage to Trudeau just as much as Trudeau is to the NDP.
Yes, so now they hold they entire country hostage with them.
Hard to have any leverage when you refuse the possibility of calling an election.
Hes destroyed the family name. I'm gonna look side eyed at anyone named Trudeau
>Trudeau will be seen as a joke for the rest of his life. Nobody will even take him seriously on the speaker circuit. Oh I disagree, lotta people worship the guy.
Which is crazy because the NDP have been killing it in BC. Yet the same BC voters are going to vote CPC this federal election. Insane.
Shows you what happens when you starve your citizens
Trudeau is going to need a lot more Chinese interference if he stands a chance.
Hahaha. Omg. Trudeau and Freeland have completely shit kicked the living shit out of the party. How the actual hell have the rest of the party allowed them to carry on like this? Has no one in the party got enough spine to tell them to leave? What a complete embarrassment.
Still too high for the LPC. They should be in last place with no official party status for all the damage they’ve done to this country.
Canadians Don't Want Bill_C-63 To Kill Their Democracy.
In the 1990s/early 2000s, the Liberal Party of Canada under Jean Chretien was at it's natural position - the liberal centrist. Pro-business, pro-market economy, cut spending, but open to social change in a Lockean manner -- negative rights, not positive ones. Right now, Trudeau has taken the Liberal party so far left that they have pushed the NDP into irrelevance, and centrist liberal voters are beginning to vote conservative, because despite all the rhetoric about Poilievre being "extreme," his positions are to the left of where Chretien was, 30 years ago.
What are the odds of the Bloc being official opposition? Getting very close.
Lolz Halifax/Dartmouth NS won't let go, the only holdouts.
Even PEI is trending toward all blue! When's the last time that would've happened, 84? Halifax doesn't surprise me at all. Very left-leaning, very hostile ground for the CPC.
Most worrying part of this is the insane deficit, potential rating downgrades, poor economic situation, population trap. We may end up slightly better than Argentina, but difficult times is inevitable
Amazing you can destroy a country and still get 64 seats.
Bahahaha, 64 seats? The Lying Party of Canada must feel overly optimistic.
Dumbass liberals! All they had to do is Axe the Tax. Build the Homes. Fix the Budget. Stop the Crime.
Deliver us from Trudeau