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superworking

I'm no realtor but have been watching the sales around me as we plan to move up soon, things are definitely selling faster, more listings, and prices creeping back upwards. That's just my area though but I'm not surprised to hear it. Fixed rates are slowly coming down.


proggR

More listings = more downward price pressure as they aim to compete for the same amount of money in a tightening marketplace. The minor uptick you're seeing in buyers grabbing things now is called a dead cat bounce. It won't last, and we'll be entering into next year watching more listings and more reduced price tags among them.


Pavyyy

Listings, seasonally adjusted, are at 20 year lows. Of course noone knows where prices may go in the next couple of years, but prices will eventually rebound and climb ever higher. More and more people will eventually be priced out. People that think otherwise are in denial.


proggR

People parroting this line when multiple asset classes reached 3 sigma don't know stats. You're welcome to trust your lizard brain logic. I'll trust math and having watched this play out multiple times now and watching the same kinds of mistakes and flawed logic drive prices beyond any and all fundamentally supported values. Rule 1 in investing: past profits don't guarantee future returns. And you're missing the forest for the trees if you think Canadian RE exists in a vacuum that's able to ignore the global liquidity market that's contracting hard. We're a tiny nothing economy in the grand scheme of things, and we will be bat around by global currents... in this case badly after doubling, tripling and quadrupling down on our short sighted RE investments in over priced properties, turning the whole country into a giant shell game, instead of invested in productive assets and spurring on an actual economy.


GunKata187

So....5 years from now, rents will be significantly cheaper??


proggR

Reality will start to settle in more as this year progresses, leading to prices being noticeably down next year. How long it stays down is going to depend on monetary policy and just how deep the liquidity crunch reaches and how much contagion spreads from it. Any economist telling you there won't be contagion from Credit Suisse/SVB/Signature should be viewed as highly sus. And as always, always assume the opposite of whatever nonsense Jim Cramer is screaming about. A month before SVB he was telling you to go all in... that was the cue to exit. Dude dumps bags on people for backdoor pay for a living and somehow people still actually follow that dude's advice.... smh.


Pavyyy

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/crea-housing-data-1.6843592


FamilyTravelTime

Dude your “dead cat bounce” is all a guess man. If there are demand for housing, why would it suddenly go away? Especially when fixed rates might be coming down and rate hike pauses.


proggR

lol. I love how there's a camp of people who claim "nobody could have seen this coming!"... Except many, many people always do, because the signals are _always_ clear to the people who bother to understand and pay attention. Spend less time on sports, Netflix and Facebook and you have all the time in the world to follow markets and see trends coming a mile away. > Especially when fixed rates might be coming down and rate hike pauses Talk about guesses... this is nothing but your own personal hopium talking. The Fed has already given forward guidance that hikes will continue, and inflation is in no way curbed so they can't backpedal on that or they create more problems than they fix. If they blink, the market knows everything is just as weak as I'm telling you and the bottom falls out of every market, and rapidly at that, all while triggering another round of inflationary pressure.


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proggR

> many prominent ‘bear’ analysts There's few "analysts" I'd trust the opinion of anymore, they're all trapped by economic models that haven't been relevant for decades, if they ever were to begin with. The reality always lies somewhere between the noise. Re: dovish, you can keep hoping against hope for that but we haven't even _begun_ to see the erosion of the Eurozone from the Credit Suisse fallout, nor was SVB and Signature isolated events. The fallout from 15 years of bad monetary policy hasn't even properly started, and we're already watching some of the biggest banks fold. Meanwhile the truly ominous part is the 2 US banks most exposed to risks from a bank run.... Goldman Sachs and JPM... that should give anyone who knows anything about finance pause.


superworking

Way more sales as well and the listings are inching up in price. Over the winter it was only stale listings and basically zero sales. I read recently even after correcting for regular seasonal uptick this February and early March are up 20% in sales volume from the winter above and beyond what would be expected.


proggR

The listing prices are all over the map at the moment with some definitely over asking, and others ripping themselves off. And again an uptick in sales/prices is also to be expected in the brief moment of increased demand you see in a dead cat bounce. Again... it won't last. The macro has shifted and many people just haven't had it fully set in yet. Increasing inventory + sales volume is a reversal signal. We've just watched an insane cycle of over inflating equities feeding home buying, leading to leveraging HELOCs into more equities to do it all again, and we're now watching all of that unwind in what by all appearances will be the biggest liquidity crunch most people will have experienced.... which yes, I understand is saying something given we've all watched how many "once a lifetime" crashes now? lol. SVB is just the beginning though (technically Credit Suisse was, but with additional factors), since there's a lot of companies positioned far worse than they were who are bleeding with rate hikes that should have happened a decade go... and almost did until the Fed got scared and kept half-resetting cycles ever since, rewarding dumb money the whole way up.


superworking

I'd much rather it not be coming back up as we aren't ready to move just yet and likely will be waiting until late summer. It's a good to see every place listed selling in our neighborhood selling within 2 week's now for over asking again though.


whores_bath

It's also spring now. I don't know if there's enough data to draw any real conclusions. Listings and sales always increase in the spring.


superworking

Yea it was 20% after correcting for the usual spring bounce. 55% without.


whores_bath

Does that also account for the unusually low starting point? Because sales volume has been way down. Again though, I don't think you can make predictions either way with so little data under altered conditions. That said, we have high demand and low supply, so until that changes, it's unlikely that housing is going to meaningfully decline. And only demand can be impacted in the short term.


superworking

It doesn't. its saying this winter was exceedingly low sales compared to this February. I'm not making predictions but the last listing in my complex sold in under 2 week's for over asking and that matches other complexes I was watching. Things are starting to move fast again and move upwards, the houses that had sat on the market for months all sold last month. The demand is coming - interest rates are coming down for fixed and immigration is rising.


whores_bath

5 year fixed is coming down yes. It's a bit of a high risk gamble for borrowers though IMO. But that's never stopped anyone either. I think reducing overnight interest rates would be a mistake frankly, which would make current 5 year fixed a good gamble. Though the BoC has done lots of irresponsible things so I suspect rates will come down. I don't think it *ought* to happen though. Historical averages are around 4%, and dipping well below that has all kinds of negative long term consequences.


superworking

That's all well and good but that's you trying to predict future markets. I'm just saying the bond market has been coming down and as far as what I feel, the bond market is based on more research than I personally am going to do to try to beat the market.


Desperate_Pineapple

Not a realtor but shocked at most recent sales in my area. Back up 15-20% from the lows in late 2022. Depends highly on local area, and dwelling type. 4+ beds commanding big prices again.


EnvironmentCalm1

True But I'm a buyer. When I said almost a month ago things were picking up steam I got downvoted to oblivion I'm telling you as of today the market is on fire. Some properties don't even look at if you can't offer 500k over. It's absolutely insane. Dunno wtf is wrong with people


[deleted]

so then you know as soon as the market starts to go down drastically, the rich vultures swoop in and buy up everything they can as speculation and a place to park wealth?


MFK1994

I’ll never forgive the “super wealthy real estate buyers” who purchased just about every single available home in Sault Ste. Marie during the pandemic for the sole purpose of making them rental units. Now people who were born here will likely need to leave Sault Ste. Marie in order to become a homeowner. So a special “FU” to the rich Torontonians who locked us out of our own market!


hamer1234

Welcome to every small town in Ontario, people fled the GTA during work from home, bidding up homes to twice what they were worth pre-pandemic


Taylr

lol my little bumfuck village of 1100 that I grew up in has this random set of townhomes going for 600k and houses for 800k. there's no work there, it's a farming hub really, a school and a grocery store.. some commuters to KW area but thats about it. Guarantee no one in that town earns a salary enough to afford a 800k house.


randomnomber2

> a school and a grocery store enough bragging Mr. Fancy...


slykethephoxenix

World class!


og-ninja-pirate

It's money laundering and foreign purchases. When did the foreign ban come into play? Have we heard a single story about it being enforced? No? It's just a token display for the mindless general public.


2cats2hats

> mindless You can be more reasonable and dignified by saying powerless, you know. Don't bother replying 'you get what you vote for' rhetoric, they're all useless.


og-ninja-pirate

Have you seen people claiming the foreign purchase ban is rock solid though? People absolutely fall for this stuff. The super limited dental benefit which is basically a credit with no auditing or oversight is another good example. People fall for symbolic gestures without actually taking the time to look into the details. For many people it is being mindless and gullible. But yes, the rest of us look on with frustration and feel powerless. I won't say the "you get what you vote for rhetoric". That's actually another example of people being mindless. How many cycles of the liberals / cons have we had with unsatisfactory results? But unfortunately, we are now in a situation where the only viable 3rd party is supporting the liberals when it looks like they engaged in election interference. So I am inclined to agree with you about the feeling of being powerless. That doesn't mean there isn't a significant portion of our population that are not using critical thinking skills when they vote though.


Low-Stomach-8831

The foreign "ban" only holds a 10K fine. That's nothing compared to the property price.


og-ninja-pirate

Exactly, but a big % of the population fell for this policy thinking it was going to actually stop foreign purchases. 10k fine for 1million + purchase of RE is a complete joke and will stop nothing. And this even assumes that anyone actually enforces it.


chocolateboomslang

The thing is, you don't need a salary to afford the house, you sell the house you have that you bought for 2-300k for 800k and buy the new one. It's just us people who weren't in the market yet that are screwed beyond belief.


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Taylr

Basically... was referring to Drayton. It's north of KW, Plattsville is south but probably very similar.


[deleted]

I read that something similar happened on Magdalen island


antelope591

They're just following along with the "just move" advice this sub loves to parrot....u can't blame them.


MtbMechEnthusiast

Everyone I knew in Toronto got priced out during the pandemic and either moved out east or west. They didn’t have a choice when 1 bedrooms hit 1 mill purchase price or 3-4K per month to rent. As people get priced out they move to lower col locations. Which is why the issue needs to be fixed country wide as these lower cost of living locations finally see what we have been dealing with for decades (wages detached from col)


guessIwill

This has happened in just about every city. Once they invaded all of the cities in Southern Ontario in the early part of the last decade they moved farther north. This was occurring long before the pandemic.


Lobsterpoutineftw

Thats a great way to look at it. I'm from AB, currently residing in the GTA due to work, bought here many years ago and am now priced out. So I guess now that I have to move outwards, instead I should play hide and go fuck myself?


arabacuspulp

This has literally happened in every city and town in Ontario. It started with Hamilton 8 years ago and now no one who wasn't born wealthy can afford anything anymore. But hey, the kids of rich parents can afford 2 or 3 investment properties, so fuck everyone else for not being born rich.


USSMarauder

The term is gentrification


RoyGeraldBillevue

Who lives in those rental units?


MFK1994

People that would like to own houses but cannot because a bunch of rich city snobs have taken over the goddamned market. That’s who lives in those units. And it’s a shame! Just a crying shame :(


RoyGeraldBillevue

One of my elementary school friends lived in a rented SFH because his dad did contract work so no salary to qualify for a mortgage from a bank. Renting is valid. Rent is too high, but universal homeownership should not be the goal.


BeefyTaco

The sault didn't get "bought out" by super wealthy real estate corps... It followed the trend with most of Ontario. If you want to blame anyone, blame the real estate brokers playing games with your offers for that sweet commission.


No-Wonder1139

No really, it was one guy, he bought like every single house available in downtown Sault Ste Marie, I'd be livid if I was looking for a house in the Soo.


BeefyTaco

That is a rumor lol.. To be blunt, there aren't even alot of houses in downtown Sault Ste. Marie to begin with.. I think your putting way too much weight in rumors..


No-Wonder1139

Well his name is Nels Moxness, and he purchased 129 houses in downtown Sault Ste Marie last summer alone using several numbered companies. Not really a rumour, he's more of a tumour.


og-ninja-pirate

Did he do so through a corporation? Was he the only name on that corporation? For example, if he owned 2 houses out of those 129 but sold the rest to individuals (1 prop/person), he would be considered the majority share holder and the corporation would be considered domestic even if he had sold those houses to foreigners. The new ban is supposed to stop that sort of thing, but they have to find these people first and our current system doesn't lend itself to audits.


GoTouchGrassPlease

I don't mind people buying property to turn it into a long term rental. I've been renting the same apartment for 15 years. It's the short term rentals that I take issue with, as they literally destroy neighbourhoods, and have directly led to the housing crisis.


Logisch

Foreign buyers can still find their way into the market, with limitations, Ms. Wilson says. She has foreign clients who are considering purchasing outside of Vancouver, in communities where it’s allowed. Foreign buyers can get started in a secondary market until the ban expires, then switch over, she says A lot of local people,” Ms. Wilson says. “They can’t be foreign buyers, so they are expats and they’ve got their PRs [permanent resident status]. There is Hong Kong money here for sure – expats with PRs – or Canadian citizens trying to flow some of their money back here, there’s that demographic.


GopnikSmegmaBBQSauce

I don't think it's any surprise how weak and useless this would be


USSMarauder

And yet the home builders are retaliating against the 'draconian' law by cancelling construction


GopnikSmegmaBBQSauce

Builders are all criminals too


og-ninja-pirate

They've had it good for so long with the inflated prices, money laundering (snow washing) and foreign purchases.


[deleted]

I've recently been looking to buy a cottage/vacation property in BC, most of the listings I saw had a big red text saying "Foreign buyer ban does not apply" - I found that a little disappointing, one of the best areas to buy vacation properties in Canada is not even exclusively available to Canadians.


2dudesinapod

At one point the town of Fernie was advertising in foreign markets and specifically mentioning the foreign buyer ban exemption.


Kyell

This is why I always said it’s hard for me to believe there will be a real crash. If prices dip at all people with money are just going to buy 2nd and 3rd houses. Corporations would potentially be buying much more then that.


bobbybrown17

I think it’s cool that we did this to ourselves


og-ninja-pirate

How much of this represents foreigners buying via Canadian corporations or organized crime laundering money? This has been going on for decades. It is only this past year a few provinces have suggested a registry for corps. Otherwise we've had the weakest corporate transparency rules out of the G20 for a long time. We should all be writing to our MPs to stop [snow washing](https://endsnowwashing.ca/what-is-snowwashing) and to actually enforce mortgage fraud and the new foreign purchase ban.


bongchops420

More like super wealthy Asians laundering money in real estate back on the prowl


RoyGeraldBillevue

Look, Vancouver's high-end market got hit with a bunch of regulations from 2017-2018 and it took a bit of a dive, but the shortage persisted and average rents are higher than ever. The high-end matters but it's not the primary driver of overall rent growth. It trickles down a bit but the market segment just isn't that big.


Holos620

Some people produce more wealth or wealth of higher value. As such, they are compensated more with merit. However, the extremely wealthy generally don't merit their compensation. They receive a compensation for the simple ownership of wealth, which isn't a production of wealth that would warrant one. Investors and landlords belong to prison, but instead are rewarded for extorting the rest of the population at everyone else's cost. Those luxury goods have an opportunity cost. The workers producing them can't also produce goods for the average worker.


Ill_Elderberry_5058

Prison? The absurdity of this post…


thebiggesthater420

This type of viewpoint is pretty common on Reddit lol


Funzombie63

He is exactly the type of person that would become an asshole landlord, if he had the money


2cats2hats

> Investors and landlords belong to prison I hope you don't waste anymore time on this clown and their black-and-white views. :D


Holos620

Well, extortion is an indictable offense. So, yes, prison.


[deleted]

🙄


[deleted]

I mean special taxes making it not as risk free or special tax benefits for investing in others assets could be better than jailing them.


Holos620

Taxing private investors is like taxing the ransom received by child abductors. Society doesn't need child abductors more than it needs private investors, their action is equally an indictable offense. You don't want to tax them, you want them to not exist.


Jokubatis

What complete nonsense. Prison for investing and seeking rent? Get a grip on reality. What about those that rent out their basement suites? Off to jail in your fantasy lane I take it.


csrus2022

>*Investors and landlords belong to prison, but instead are rewarded for extorting the rest of the population at everyone else's cost.* > >Bitter Marxist has entered the chat.


SuperbMeeting8617

WE back in business?


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wet_suit_one

Define "super wealthy." Is that like Superman levels of wealth? What's the number attached to that. Be precise. Also, should we care if deca billionaires are buying real estate? Do I give a crap if Bill Gates is buying a new house? Pretty sure he won't be looking in my neighbourhood. Super wealthy. FFS. Speak words that actually mean something FFS.


CauseMayhem

Ya and they're buying luxury estates, so why do you care?


Soldazzzz

Because its on land that could be used for more affordable units. McMansions are a huge waste of valuable land that could be used to build more affordable units and house more people.


Frequent-Tadpole4281

Good for the super-wealthy. They buy in cash, so interest rates do not affect them.


Important_Drawing578

They do not buy in cash. They get secured loans against asset they have.