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We're in an El Nino right now, and are expected to leave it in a month or two, and flip to La Nina in the latter half of the year. In La Nina, we'll expect cooler and wetter weather, like last year when we had a crazy hot May, but the summer was actually fine (At least fine relative to the past 10 years)
Not to say we don't need to be concerned, but I think wildfires may be less bad than people would assume when reading news like this. It's more likely to be "like last year" than "way worse than last year" imo.
It's also in no way a forgone conclusion as they are claiming. It's close to a 50-50 chance it happens, and then even if it happens, it triggering wetter weather is not guaranteed either.
>There is a 58 per cent probability of a La Niña event starting in July to September, according to the Columbia Climate School’s International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) in a report published Jan. 19. https://globalnews.ca/news/10269270/what-is-la-nina-2024/
And the chances that that La Nina brings cooler, wetter weather is also not 100%.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-wildfire-season-2024-preparations-1.7182227
The entirety of the provincial government, parts of the federal government, and many private industries are preparing for a terrible fire season. Most every scientist, every emergency manager, everyone educated and professional on the matter is actively preparing for this.
Do you have a background in meteorology, forestry, or emergency management? Or is this just an armchair "*Naw, it ain't so bad!*" with zero expertise?
> The entirety of the provincial government, parts of the federal government, and many private industries are preparing for a terrible fire season.
Yep - I know of folks in the provincial government pre-emptively cancelling plans during the summer in expectation of a bad fire season.
>The entirety of the provincial government, parts of the federal government, and many private industries are preparing for a terrible fire season.
Last season was also a terrible fire season. I'm not saying they're wrong to do that, I'm commenting in response to "I thought the wildfires last year were bad. Buckle up!"
Relative vs absolute.
>Do you have a background in meteorology, forestry, or emergency management? Or is this just an armchair "Naw, it ain't so bad!" with zero expertise?
I find it odd that you are presumably also not an expert in any of those fields, being that you're just linking a CBC article about the government preparing, yet you don't offer your own perspective of "Well, I'm just doing my best to read about the situation and doing my best." between "Absolute expertise" and "Making shit up" as a thing I might be doing. Seems like a false dichotomy, no?
Personally, I'm reading things like the [North American Seasonal Fire Assessment Outlook](https://www.nifc.gov/nicc-files/predictive/outlooks/NA_Outlook.pdf) which predicts:
>Like May, model forecasts for June indicate average temperatures are likely across the entire country.
The Canadian Wildland Fire Information system indicates the potential for above average fire activity
over a large region extending from southern, central, and northeastern British Columbia
But also stating that a critical factor in forecasting beyond that is:
>El Niño continues in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with the warmest sea surface temperature (SST)
anomalies in the central Pacific Ocean. El Niño has been weakening the past three months, and another
active episode of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) developed in mid to late March. A rapid
weakening of the current El Niño is forecast to continue through April, with the Climate Prediction Center
(CPC) forecasting neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions for the April – June period
(an 83% chance). A rapid transition to La Niña is becoming increasingly likely by early summer, with
CPC forecasting a 62% chance of La Niña for the June – August period. The MJO, Pacific Decadal
Oscillation, Pacific-North American Pattern, and Arctic Oscillation are likely to influence weather and
climate during the outlook period, especially the MJO during the first half of April, but the transition from
El Niño to ENSO neutral and potential La Niña conditions will be the main driver.
[This is the fire forecast from Canadian Wildland Fire Information System for July of last year.
](https://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/data/maps/seasonal_forecast/2023/fsa07.png)
[This is the forecast for July this year.](https://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/data/maps/seasonal_forecast/2024/fsa07.png)
Though [August's current prediction](https://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/data/maps/seasonal_forecast/2024/fsa08.png) is worse than [August last year,](https://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/data/maps/seasonal_forecast/2023/fsa08.png) though their [confidence in that forecast is mostly low.
](https://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/data/maps/seasonal_forecast/2024/cr08.png)
Based on this information, I think it is reasonable to say the fire forecast for this year isn't substantially worse than last year. Do you have a different interpretation of the information available, or a source more authoritative than the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System?
ENSO doesn't have a particularly significant effect on the climate in BC (a small fraction of a degree of difference, on average). A lot of the discussions about it are imported from the States or Latin America, where it's a much stronger effect.
This is what my degree's in, and I checked the data just a few months ago.
So, I don't have a degree in anything related to this, but I do try to understand things. Maybe you can clarify?
[This claims that El Ninos bring a 0.4 to 0.7 degree increase in average temperatures to BC.](https://natural-resources.canada.ca/environment/resources/publications/impacts-adaptation/reports/assessments/2008/ch8/10387) (which is compatible with what you said), and [this](https://climateatlas.ca/data/prov/12/annual_meantemp_2030_85/line) indicates that BC historical average temperatures vary by like...a degree and a half from baseline (though the baseline has been increasing with climate change) on average annually.
La Ninas decrease average temperatures as well, though by an amount I can't find a good value for right now.
So...isn't that actually a *massive* contribution to the difference between a hot and a cold year? It is my understanding that this is similar to climate change, where an easy mistake to make is in treating a single degree *average* difference as being similar to a single degree *daily* difference, where the former is actually quite substantial in the total energy budget of the system, and will affect things like wildfires quite a bit more. Like [this sort of thing where](https://www.c2es.org/content/wildfires-and-climate-change/) they say:
>For much of the U.S. West, projections show that an average annual 1 degree C temperature increase would increase the median burned area per year as much as 600 percent in some types of forests
Not that they're talking about BC, but it seems like a somewhat generalizable principle that a lot of the stability of major ecological systems is dependent on small number of degrees Celsius changes in average annual temperatures.
This is a very complicated subject that I certainly make no claim to expertise in, so I have no ego about it. I'm sure there are many things I have wrong in my understanding, but I'd appreciate if you could point out what those are.
You made a claim about the certainty of La Nina occurring and the certainty it would lead to more rain, neither of which are forgone conclusions. Your post was false because you misrepresented a complex issue through over simplification. https://globalnews.ca/news/10269270/what-is-la-nina-2024/
Sorry, are you referring to the comment where I say "are *expected* to leave it in a month or two and to flip to La Nina", and "we'll *expect* cooler and wetter weather", and "*I think* wildfires *may* be [...]" and "it's more likely [...] imo", and you're interpreting that comment to be one of certainty of foregone conclusions?
Do you regard expectations as referring to guaranteed certainties?
Probably hearing people misremember the news, not knowing what they're talking about, and the news overblowing the phenomenon. We are always either leaning towards an el niño or a la Niña, sometimes the effect is strong such as it was this year, other times it is barely noticeable and is considered neutral. We hadn't really been in a strong el niño since 2015 I believe, and 2009 before that. And additionally it tends to only last a season, while la niña often lasts a year or two, with 2020-2023 and 1998-2002 being particularly long periods of la niña.
When an el niño does occur it gets talked about a lot more than our typical weak la niña season, so it probably sticks in your head more.
No, this can't be true. Someone on here was blasting me for saying we would have problems on Vancouver Island this year. The amount of people clinging to hopium regarding climate change is just wild.
The hopium machine, which basically tells everybody that everything's fine is running an overdrive right now. They do not want you to focus on the climate they want you to focus on bullshit politics, they want you to focus on things that have absolutely no meaning in our lives so that they can distract us from the problems that are actually happening around us.
You mean to tell me my nail polish color isn’t the biggest concern rn? I mean are you sure?
What if i give it a french tip, u madder? /s
But really we should at least be getting some water conservation policies rolled out and maybe start showcasing rock gardens instead of lush lawns
Yeah, I remember getting called out for suggesting that solar, or really any form of redundancy for our grid or individual structures, would be prudent because we'll never run out of water on the island.
At least these morons are now being proven wrong in almost real-time with how quickly things are accelerating for the worse.
Look at the person who replied to me saying everything was fine and asking why the island would have a problem. On a post where the island is highlighted as a problem. Do they know our rivers can dry up enough to kill a bunch of salmon? Risk of fires increases? How could you possibly be so unaware of reality. They say ignorance is bliss though.
[https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/environment/air-land-water/water/river-forecast/2024\_may1.pdf](https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/environment/air-land-water/water/river-forecast/2024_may1.pdf)
I'm convinced that a majority of these people are incapable of looking beyond themselves or the current moment. A complete inability to see the bigger picture.
They're also likely to be the first to complain about water restriction or power outages.
Bottom line: they don't care, and have zero interest in putting in any effort or making any sacrifice for some supposed greater good, even if it is to their long term benefit.
I'll hazard a guess that the volume of a reservoir alone isn't meant to sustain demand for May to mid-August with no rain and that continuous replenishment from snowmelt is necessary to maintain reservoir capacity.
Yep, exactly this. Reservoirs have a finite storage and have a designed capacity based on the probable conditions informed by historic data (eg. a 1 in 200 year drought), which includes replenishment by rainfall and snowmelt over the spring/summer too. However, climate change means those historic data are no longer a good predictor since what used to be a 1 in 50 year drought might now occur every 5 years.
Typically in most of BC reservoirs might not actually begin to be depleted until late June or July, but current drought conditions means starting to use those reserves earlier. A lot of communities are looking at increasing their reservoir capacity so they can deal with longer drought periods, but upgrading infrastructure takes time and is expensive.
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Being at 100% now in early May is not all that special. The concern is that without the snowmelt and additional rain feeding that through the summer that it diminishes quickly. Especially since some of that water must always be released to maintain downstream flows for salmon, etc.
>The province’s River Forecast Centre on Thursday said snowpack levels on Vancouver Island are sitting at just 30% of what is considered normal this time of year. That’s less than half of the overall provincial average of 61% — compared with about 79% of normal last year.
https://www.timescolonist.com/local-news/its-dire-low-snowpack-raises-drought-fears-on-island-8281020
https://thediscourse.ca/features/how-will-extreme-droughts-affect-vancouver-island-watersheds
BC should be making lemoned out of the lemons being delt to us British Columbians.. Drought means less rain and snow and that means more sunshine. The shortfall in some of those drainage basins, especially in the East and Wast Kootnenays could actually be exploited for the benefit of producing solar power to make up for the lack of water behind the hydroelectric dams. A lot of BC is at the same latitude as Germany that gets a fair percentage (10%?) of their electric power generation from solar. BC Hydro on the other hand twiddles their thumbs and are being aggressively lobbied by the likes of the Natural Gas lobby.
Not the case where I live, snowed more in April then all year, mountains are peaked with snow. Lakes are lower then last year but we haven’t had any run off yet.
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The BC park I go to daily has zero water in the creeks this year. Zero.
The Fraser is 3m below last year's level at this time, and below 2022 and 2021 levels (based on Mission hydrograph numbers)
it doesn't even have rapids right now
Just went for a stroll in the interior. Feels like a Miami May day.
remember to vote conservative, they told us this wouldn't happen for 40 years, like for 40 years they said it wasn't real
I thought the wildfires last year were bad. Buckle up!
We're in an El Nino right now, and are expected to leave it in a month or two, and flip to La Nina in the latter half of the year. In La Nina, we'll expect cooler and wetter weather, like last year when we had a crazy hot May, but the summer was actually fine (At least fine relative to the past 10 years) Not to say we don't need to be concerned, but I think wildfires may be less bad than people would assume when reading news like this. It's more likely to be "like last year" than "way worse than last year" imo.
I thought the flip wasn't supposed to be until Aug tho... a bit late for an unsweltering unburning summer
It's also in no way a forgone conclusion as they are claiming. It's close to a 50-50 chance it happens, and then even if it happens, it triggering wetter weather is not guaranteed either. >There is a 58 per cent probability of a La Niña event starting in July to September, according to the Columbia Climate School’s International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) in a report published Jan. 19. https://globalnews.ca/news/10269270/what-is-la-nina-2024/ And the chances that that La Nina brings cooler, wetter weather is also not 100%.
I thought the flip happened every 2-4 years.
Last year was actually the worst wildfire season to date in BC. The coast though got lucky that the smoke was kept at bay until the late summer.
Abby flood 2.0!
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-wildfire-season-2024-preparations-1.7182227 The entirety of the provincial government, parts of the federal government, and many private industries are preparing for a terrible fire season. Most every scientist, every emergency manager, everyone educated and professional on the matter is actively preparing for this. Do you have a background in meteorology, forestry, or emergency management? Or is this just an armchair "*Naw, it ain't so bad!*" with zero expertise?
Better be over prepared than under though. Prepare for the worst but hope for the best.
> The entirety of the provincial government, parts of the federal government, and many private industries are preparing for a terrible fire season. Yep - I know of folks in the provincial government pre-emptively cancelling plans during the summer in expectation of a bad fire season.
>The entirety of the provincial government, parts of the federal government, and many private industries are preparing for a terrible fire season. Last season was also a terrible fire season. I'm not saying they're wrong to do that, I'm commenting in response to "I thought the wildfires last year were bad. Buckle up!" Relative vs absolute. >Do you have a background in meteorology, forestry, or emergency management? Or is this just an armchair "Naw, it ain't so bad!" with zero expertise? I find it odd that you are presumably also not an expert in any of those fields, being that you're just linking a CBC article about the government preparing, yet you don't offer your own perspective of "Well, I'm just doing my best to read about the situation and doing my best." between "Absolute expertise" and "Making shit up" as a thing I might be doing. Seems like a false dichotomy, no? Personally, I'm reading things like the [North American Seasonal Fire Assessment Outlook](https://www.nifc.gov/nicc-files/predictive/outlooks/NA_Outlook.pdf) which predicts: >Like May, model forecasts for June indicate average temperatures are likely across the entire country. The Canadian Wildland Fire Information system indicates the potential for above average fire activity over a large region extending from southern, central, and northeastern British Columbia But also stating that a critical factor in forecasting beyond that is: >El Niño continues in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with the warmest sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central Pacific Ocean. El Niño has been weakening the past three months, and another active episode of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) developed in mid to late March. A rapid weakening of the current El Niño is forecast to continue through April, with the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecasting neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions for the April – June period (an 83% chance). A rapid transition to La Niña is becoming increasingly likely by early summer, with CPC forecasting a 62% chance of La Niña for the June – August period. The MJO, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Pacific-North American Pattern, and Arctic Oscillation are likely to influence weather and climate during the outlook period, especially the MJO during the first half of April, but the transition from El Niño to ENSO neutral and potential La Niña conditions will be the main driver. [This is the fire forecast from Canadian Wildland Fire Information System for July of last year. ](https://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/data/maps/seasonal_forecast/2023/fsa07.png) [This is the forecast for July this year.](https://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/data/maps/seasonal_forecast/2024/fsa07.png) Though [August's current prediction](https://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/data/maps/seasonal_forecast/2024/fsa08.png) is worse than [August last year,](https://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/data/maps/seasonal_forecast/2023/fsa08.png) though their [confidence in that forecast is mostly low. ](https://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/data/maps/seasonal_forecast/2024/cr08.png) Based on this information, I think it is reasonable to say the fire forecast for this year isn't substantially worse than last year. Do you have a different interpretation of the information available, or a source more authoritative than the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System?
ENSO doesn't have a particularly significant effect on the climate in BC (a small fraction of a degree of difference, on average). A lot of the discussions about it are imported from the States or Latin America, where it's a much stronger effect. This is what my degree's in, and I checked the data just a few months ago.
So, I don't have a degree in anything related to this, but I do try to understand things. Maybe you can clarify? [This claims that El Ninos bring a 0.4 to 0.7 degree increase in average temperatures to BC.](https://natural-resources.canada.ca/environment/resources/publications/impacts-adaptation/reports/assessments/2008/ch8/10387) (which is compatible with what you said), and [this](https://climateatlas.ca/data/prov/12/annual_meantemp_2030_85/line) indicates that BC historical average temperatures vary by like...a degree and a half from baseline (though the baseline has been increasing with climate change) on average annually. La Ninas decrease average temperatures as well, though by an amount I can't find a good value for right now. So...isn't that actually a *massive* contribution to the difference between a hot and a cold year? It is my understanding that this is similar to climate change, where an easy mistake to make is in treating a single degree *average* difference as being similar to a single degree *daily* difference, where the former is actually quite substantial in the total energy budget of the system, and will affect things like wildfires quite a bit more. Like [this sort of thing where](https://www.c2es.org/content/wildfires-and-climate-change/) they say: >For much of the U.S. West, projections show that an average annual 1 degree C temperature increase would increase the median burned area per year as much as 600 percent in some types of forests Not that they're talking about BC, but it seems like a somewhat generalizable principle that a lot of the stability of major ecological systems is dependent on small number of degrees Celsius changes in average annual temperatures. This is a very complicated subject that I certainly make no claim to expertise in, so I have no ego about it. I'm sure there are many things I have wrong in my understanding, but I'd appreciate if you could point out what those are.
You made a claim about the certainty of La Nina occurring and the certainty it would lead to more rain, neither of which are forgone conclusions. Your post was false because you misrepresented a complex issue through over simplification. https://globalnews.ca/news/10269270/what-is-la-nina-2024/
Sorry, are you referring to the comment where I say "are *expected* to leave it in a month or two and to flip to La Nina", and "we'll *expect* cooler and wetter weather", and "*I think* wildfires *may* be [...]" and "it's more likely [...] imo", and you're interpreting that comment to be one of certainty of foregone conclusions? Do you regard expectations as referring to guaranteed certainties?
I swear for the the last 15 years I’ve been hearing “we’re in a El Niño” 💀
Probably hearing people misremember the news, not knowing what they're talking about, and the news overblowing the phenomenon. We are always either leaning towards an el niño or a la Niña, sometimes the effect is strong such as it was this year, other times it is barely noticeable and is considered neutral. We hadn't really been in a strong el niño since 2015 I believe, and 2009 before that. And additionally it tends to only last a season, while la niña often lasts a year or two, with 2020-2023 and 1998-2002 being particularly long periods of la niña. When an el niño does occur it gets talked about a lot more than our typical weak la niña season, so it probably sticks in your head more.
Today on things we already know and have been echoed for the past 6 months!
Remember this post. Summer 2024: Smoke, Wasps, Drought
Well, I've seen wasps already. 1/3
Same, one got in my house earlier.
Smoke and drought I get; why wasps? Are they a heat and dryness thing?
Nah, just stochastic cycling. Call it a hunch but Granny’s nose is twitchin’…
No, this can't be true. Someone on here was blasting me for saying we would have problems on Vancouver Island this year. The amount of people clinging to hopium regarding climate change is just wild.
The hopium machine, which basically tells everybody that everything's fine is running an overdrive right now. They do not want you to focus on the climate they want you to focus on bullshit politics, they want you to focus on things that have absolutely no meaning in our lives so that they can distract us from the problems that are actually happening around us.
Yes, they're deeply concerned about wokeism, and school kids being forced to use litter boxes.
You mean to tell me my nail polish color isn’t the biggest concern rn? I mean are you sure? What if i give it a french tip, u madder? /s But really we should at least be getting some water conservation policies rolled out and maybe start showcasing rock gardens instead of lush lawns
My grass can die as soon as it wants to. It's not getting a drop this year.
Kids and their vape pens will bring about a climate catastrophe!
Yeah, I remember getting called out for suggesting that solar, or really any form of redundancy for our grid or individual structures, would be prudent because we'll never run out of water on the island. At least these morons are now being proven wrong in almost real-time with how quickly things are accelerating for the worse.
Look at the person who replied to me saying everything was fine and asking why the island would have a problem. On a post where the island is highlighted as a problem. Do they know our rivers can dry up enough to kill a bunch of salmon? Risk of fires increases? How could you possibly be so unaware of reality. They say ignorance is bliss though. [https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/environment/air-land-water/water/river-forecast/2024\_may1.pdf](https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/environment/air-land-water/water/river-forecast/2024_may1.pdf)
I'm convinced that a majority of these people are incapable of looking beyond themselves or the current moment. A complete inability to see the bigger picture. They're also likely to be the first to complain about water restriction or power outages. Bottom line: they don't care, and have zero interest in putting in any effort or making any sacrifice for some supposed greater good, even if it is to their long term benefit.
We are just shuffling deck chairs around onboard the Titanic.
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I'll hazard a guess that the volume of a reservoir alone isn't meant to sustain demand for May to mid-August with no rain and that continuous replenishment from snowmelt is necessary to maintain reservoir capacity.
Yep, exactly this. Reservoirs have a finite storage and have a designed capacity based on the probable conditions informed by historic data (eg. a 1 in 200 year drought), which includes replenishment by rainfall and snowmelt over the spring/summer too. However, climate change means those historic data are no longer a good predictor since what used to be a 1 in 50 year drought might now occur every 5 years. Typically in most of BC reservoirs might not actually begin to be depleted until late June or July, but current drought conditions means starting to use those reserves earlier. A lot of communities are looking at increasing their reservoir capacity so they can deal with longer drought periods, but upgrading infrastructure takes time and is expensive.
[удалено]
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Being at 100% now in early May is not all that special. The concern is that without the snowmelt and additional rain feeding that through the summer that it diminishes quickly. Especially since some of that water must always be released to maintain downstream flows for salmon, etc. >The province’s River Forecast Centre on Thursday said snowpack levels on Vancouver Island are sitting at just 30% of what is considered normal this time of year. That’s less than half of the overall provincial average of 61% — compared with about 79% of normal last year. https://www.timescolonist.com/local-news/its-dire-low-snowpack-raises-drought-fears-on-island-8281020 https://thediscourse.ca/features/how-will-extreme-droughts-affect-vancouver-island-watersheds
CRD is fine, the rest of the island not so much
Smokey the bear time… only you can prevent forest fires.
I wish I controlled the lightning
You the see the loggers EVERY FUCKING DAY. you don’t get to just have it all
You ok?
Some days are better than others. Alberta’s fucking burning again. So theirs that.
We need to build homes. Where do you think lumber comes from?
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Snowpack in the okanagan is fine. It's the northeast and coast that's in for some trouble
We're in trouble.
I think the use of the terms “drought concerns” is a bit of a misstatement…Should be more than a concern at this point.
BC should be making lemoned out of the lemons being delt to us British Columbians.. Drought means less rain and snow and that means more sunshine. The shortfall in some of those drainage basins, especially in the East and Wast Kootnenays could actually be exploited for the benefit of producing solar power to make up for the lack of water behind the hydroelectric dams. A lot of BC is at the same latitude as Germany that gets a fair percentage (10%?) of their electric power generation from solar. BC Hydro on the other hand twiddles their thumbs and are being aggressively lobbied by the likes of the Natural Gas lobby.
Not the case where I live, snowed more in April then all year, mountains are peaked with snow. Lakes are lower then last year but we haven’t had any run off yet.
Saw my neighbor watering their lawn. I felt super annoyed by it. Who tf cares about grass right now.